Lecture Plan 05 Full

Revision dated April 25, 2005

Course 02431, Risk Management, Lecture planLecturer: Frank H Hedlund (PhD. MSc. MBA)

Textbook: Royal Society (1992) Risk: Analysis, Perception and Management. Report of a Royal Society Study Group, The Royal Society, London

Course language: English. The may be an occasional slide in Danish. However, only material in English will enter the pool of exam relevant subject matter.

Evaluation:

1. 2 hour multiple choice exam (no aid)Subject matter: all readings specified below, plus lectured presentations available on Campusnet.

2. Evaluation of written assignments (by group), assignment length: max 15 pages.

Students will be requested to form groups of about 6 people. The groups will organise short student presentations and prepare a written assignment

Key dates:

8 Feb 2005 Groups formed and participants named

5 Apr 2005 Groups present list of one or more topics for their written assignment

19 April 2005 Groups present short abstract (half a page) on their selected topic for written assignment

13 May 2005 Written assignments handed in no later than 13:00

30 May 2005 Multiple choice exam

lectureplan05full.doc


# Date Contents1 1-Feb

2005IntroductionOverview of course, terminology, some key issues in risk management

Readings:

1. Textbook: Chapter 1: Introduction

Classroom activity: formation of groups

Student presentations: none2 8-Feb

2005Technical (objective) risksReadings:

1. Textbook: - Chapter 2: Estimating engineering risk

2. Nasa (1992) Asteroid and comet impact hazards - The spaceguard survey report

3. AIAA (2004) Planetary Defense Conference: Protecting the Earth from Asteroids (summary). American Institute of Aeronautics andAstronautics (AIAA)

Student presentations (10 min):

1. based on 2) what is the hazard ?

2. based on 2) what is the risk ?

3. based on 3) what can be done about it ?



3 15-Feb2005

PoulThyregod

Effectiveness and efficiencyReadings: Graham JD, Wiener JB (1995) Risk vs. risk. Tradeoffs in protecting health and the environment. Harvard University Press

1. Chapter 1: Confronting risk tradeoffs

2. Chapter 7: Seeking safe drinking water

3. Chapter 5: Saving gasoline and lives

4. Tengs et al. (1995) 500 Life-saving Interventions and Their Cost-Effectiveness, Risk Analysis, Vol. 15, No. 3: 369-390


1. based on 2) what is the tradeoff ?

2. based on 3) what is the tradeoff (try also to identify an element of system dynamics) ?

3. based on 4) what is the point ? / are there discrepancies in the tables ? / any caveats regarding use of cost-benefit analysis ?4 22-Feb

2005Technical risk analysis and assessment HAZOP exercise: paper mill with chlorine rail car unloadingReadings:

1. The HAZOP (Hazard and Operability) Method. AcuTech Process Risk Management. Read from: http://www.acusafe.com/Hazard_Analysis/HAZOP_Technique.pdf

2. Hessian RT, Rubin JN. Chapter 3. Checklist reviews. (in particular read pp30-33, pp34-47 are optional)In: Greenberg HR, Cramer JJ Risk Assessment and Risk Management for the Chemical Process Industry, Wiley pp30-47

3. Sherrod RM, Early WF (1991) Chapter 8 Hazard and operability studies. In: Greenberg HR, Cramer JJ Risk Assessment and Risk Management for the Chemical Process Industry, Wiley pp101-126

4. Case description available on Campusnet

Student presentations: none



5 1-Mar2005

Cases which cannot be explained using standard rational modelsReadings: Perrow C (1984) Normal accidents. Living with high-risk technologies. Reprint by Princeton University Press (1999)

1. Chapter 6: Marine accidents

2. Chapter 7: Earthbound systems: Dams, quakes, mines and lakes


1. based on 1): intro of radar, what was the effect on ship collisions (identify an element of system dynamics) ?

2. based on 1): ship collisions, what explanation does Perrow offer (as a sociologist) ?

3. based on 2): the Grand Teton dam failure was this a technical failure? explain.6 8-Mar

2005When redundancy backfires case example: US nuclear weapons command and control systemReadings:

1. Sagan SD (1993) The limits of safety. Organizations, accidents and nuclear weapons. Princeton University PressChapter 6: Redundancy and reliability: The Thule 1968 bomber accident

2. A false nuclear attack alarm in Russia 1983: After the cold war. Shattered shield: 'I had a funny feeling in my gut' The Washington Post Wednesday, February 10, 1999; Page A19

3. (Optional) Shattered Shield Russia's Myopic Missile Defense. The Washington Post. Wednesday, February 10, 1999; Page A1


1. based on 1): Describe the "High Reliability School" theory

2. based on 1): Describe the "Normal Accident School" theory

3. based on 2): From an organisational point of view, identify factors that led to the incident



7 15-Mar2005

Risk perceptionReadings:

1. Textbook: - Chapter 5: Risk perception

Discussion on written assignments

1. Presentation: How to write a good assignment

2. Discussion on possible topics for assignments


1. What is the difference between acceptable and tolerable risk, which is claimed to be superior, and why

2. Explain figure 2, p104

3. Identify at least two approaches to risk communication- 22-Mar

2005Easter



8 29-Mar2005

Risk perception cultural theory, examplesReadings:

1. Douglas M, Wildavsky A (1982) Risk and culture. An essay on the selection of technological and environmental dangers. University ofCalifornia Press, BerkeleyChapter 2: Risks are selected

2. (Ibid) Conclusion: Risk is a collective construct. (in particular pp. 195-198)

3. Schrling (2004) REACH The only planet guide to the secrets of chemicals policy in the EU. What happened and why? Greens/European FreeAlliance in the European Parliament. Brussels, April 2004Read: European Chemicals Policy pp 49-57

4. BW 2000605 3M's Big Cleanup. Why it decided to pull the plug on its best-selling stain repellant Business Week 3684:96-98 (June 5, 2000)

5. Whelan EM (2000) Editorial: Companies That Would Rather Switch Than Fight : 3M's Retreat from Scotchgard . American Council on Scienceand Health


1. based on 1) Describe the term "Pollution beliefs", characteristics, implications

2. based on 2) Explain the resilience-anticipation dimension, identify key arguments for resilience

3. based on 3) What is the problem (hazard) ?9 5-Apr

2005

Guestlecturer

Risk managementReadings:

1. Textbook: - Chapter 6: Risk management

8:00-9:00 - Guest lecturer: Bente Villumsen from COWI: Drinking water, chemical pollutants, threshold limit values, technical options for purification and politics.


1. Describe the "liability - blame" dimension of risk management, identify pros and cons of both views

2. Describe the "quantitative - qualitative" dimension of risk management, identify pros and cons of both views

3. Describe the "cost of risk reduction" dimension of risk management, identify pros and cons of both views



10 12-Apr2005

Risk management system dynamicsReadings:

1. Wilde GJS (1994) Target risk. PDE Publications. Chapter 4: The theory of risk homeostasis. Read from http://pavlov.psyc.queensu.ca/target/

2. Assum et al. (1999) Risk compensation: the case of road lighting. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 31(5):545-553

3. Klen (1997) Personal protectors and working behaviour of loggers. Safety Science 25(1-3):89-103

4. Farmer et a. (1997) Fatal crashes of passenger vehicles before and after adding antilock braking systems. Accident Analysis and Prevention 29(6):745-757

5. Study backs systems to aid auto stability. New York Times. Published: October 28, 2004

Student presentations (5-10 min):

1. based on 1) What is "risk homeostasis" ?

2. based on 2) Did road lighting increase road safety? Identify pro and con.

3. based on 3) Did personal protective equipment (PPE) improve occupational safety? Identify pro and con.

4. based on 5) and 6) What can be done to increase road safety ? Discuss.11 19-Apr

2005Risk management accountabilityReadings:

1. Feature in New York Times 2003: When workers die (awarded The Pulitzer Prize for journalism)When workers die (1). A trench caves in; a young worker is dead. Is it a crime? New York Times. Published: December 21, 2003

2. Feature in New York Times 2003: When workers die (awarded The Pulitzer Prize for journalism)When workers die (3). California leads in making employer pay for job deaths. New York Times. Published: December 23, 2003

3. Feature in New York Times 2004: Death on the tracks (awarded The Pulitzer Prize for journalism)Amtrak pays millions for others' fatal errors. New York Times. Published: October 15, 2004

Student presentations

1. based on 1) What is the claim of regulatory failure?, explain.

2. based on 2) Relate case story to the "accountability" dimension in risk management

3. based on 3) Relate case story to the "accountability" dimension in risk management and to organisational behaviour



12 26-Apr2005

Risk management anticipation versus resilience8:10 Overview of course contents - questions from students

9:00 - 9:45Guest lecturer: Risk manager, Cand. jur. Jens Vinther Nielsen, SkanskaRisk management examples from the construction industry

10:00 - 11:30Guest lecturer: Mr. Claus Rose Andresen, Fire chief, emergency services, Kolding (county in Jylland)Emergency response to the pyrotechnics disaster in Kolding, November 2004

Readings: none

Student presentations: none13 3-May

2005Exam briefing and guest lectureBriefing on multiple choice exam, examples of types of questions

Guest lecturer: Risk consultant, Cand. jur. Anders Markvardt, March consulting. ( CANCELLED ) Some comments on the issue of the "failure to warn" obligation in risk management - examples from stock emissions abroad.

10:00 - 11:30Guest lecturer: Dr. Jrgen Peder Steffensen (glaciologist), The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen Global warming: Uncertainty of nature - nature of uncertainty - scale and magnitude of hazard - what is the risk

Evaluation

Work on written assignmentReadings: none

Student presentations: none- 10-May

2005no lecture


Documents

Lecture Plan 05 Full