Lecture 9_Intuition, Insight, Innovation.pdf

Quiz 1

IIMC PGPEX 2015-16 Intuitive Decision Making, Lecture 9 1

Q1. What is the principal goal of Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) approach to study of decision making?

How experts make decisions under extreme time pressure in complex and dynamic situations.

Q2. Heuristics and biases approach to study decision making is important because....

…human beings tend to make inconsistent judgements when presented with the same information in different ways.

Q3. Naturalistic decision making (NDM) community tries to understand how experts use intuition to make effective decisions, many times in life and death situations.

TRUE

Quiz 1

Q4. Study of heuristics and biases examines how System 1 simplifies decision tasks in order to make choices quickly and economically.

TRUE

Q5. Naturalistic Decision Making examines how skill and expertise aid decision making.

TRUE

Q6. Because System 1 uses heuristics, decision making skills can be improved by teaching managers how to recognise patterns and make fine discriminations between them in fluid and rapidly changing situations.

FALSE


Quiz 1

Q7. Experts who make decisions in naturalistic settings almost always find it easy to articulate why and how they made decisions.

FALSE

Q8. "Could we be the Toys R Us of office supplies?" - Thomas Stemberg, founder of Staples. This is a poor example of analogical reasoning.

FALSE


Quiz 1

Q9. Confirmation bias gets in the way of analogical reasoning when people actively seek evidence of similarities and do not look for anomalies.

TRUE

Q10. Bazerman and Moore's prescription - six strategies for improving decision making - is a sure shot road to success.

FALSE



Intuitive Decision Making Intuition, Insight and Innovation

Archimedes

•  Problem: purity of gold in votive crown? •  The bathtub episode! •  Measuring density of crown by the water

displaced •  Eureka!


Martin Chalfie’s Eureka

•  Was conducting research on nervous system of worms •  1988: attended seminar on bioluminiscent organisms •  Eureka! •  2008: Nobel Prize in Chemistry for work on Green

Fluorescent Protein


Harry Markopolos

•  Securities executive and certified fraud examiner •  1999: Friend challenged him to match Madoff’s financial results •  Harry examined Madoff’s financial records, says, “There is no way

this is real.” This is bogus.” •  Complained and chased SEC till Madoff turned himself in in 2008.


Barry Marshall

•  Till 1990s gastric ulcers were assumed caused by stress à surgery or antacids

•  Marshall found Helicobacter pylori bacteria in gut of people with peptic ulcers

•  Research rejected. He consumed H. pylori. Got ulcer and treated himself with antibiotic.

•  Now treated with antibiotics •  Nobel Prize in 2005


Aron Ralston’s 127 hours

•  Canyoneering accident à arm pinned by large rock •  Failed to to cut his arm loose •  Prepared to die •  Epiphany on day 5: instead of freeing his arm, he could

free himself from the arm •  Amputated his arm after 5 days 7 hrs


How do solutions occur?

•  Insight –  Dawning of an “idea” –  Revelation of a way out –  Realisation of a possible solution

•  Intuition and insight are different –  Intuition is the use of patterns experts have learnt* –  Insight is discovery of new patterns*


* Gary Klein

Why do we need insights?

•  Creativity •  Problem solving •  Innovation


Sources of insight

•  Flash of illumination –  Archimedes, Chalfie

•  Connections –  Admiral Yamamoto

•  Coincidences and curiosities –  Barry Marshall

•  Contradictions –  Harry Markopolos

•  Creative desperation –  Aron Ralston


Some insights emerge slowly


Source: Gary Klein

Triple Path Model of Insight

Insights fundamentally change the way we see something. •  This change triggers

–  Action –  Seeing –  Feeling –  Desire

•  This fundamental change is the source of creativity and innovation



A firm’s performance improvement

Insights Errors &

uncertainty

Productivity Efficiency

Cost reduction Predictability

Creativity Innovation

New revenue Leadership

Source: Gary Klein

How to reduce errors and uncertainty

•  Impose tighter standards •  Increase controls •  Document all sources •  Identify all assumptions •  Estimate uncertainty of

assumptions •  Increase number of reviews •  Justify conclusions with greater

rigour •  Rely on checklists and

procedures

•  Increase precision of schedules

•  They distract •  Make us reluctant to

speculate •  They put insights in

negative light •  Repress anomalies •  Make us passive

They suppress insights!


Questions…

•  Should we schedule regular meetings to generate and harness insights?

•  Brainstorming as a way to generate insights? •  Short intense meetings to discuss insights?


How can we foster insight?

•  Appreciative enquiry •  Critical thinking, questioning not listing assumptions •  Incubation, pause…especially when faced with impasse •  Reduce the tyranny of the Down Arrow

–  Loosen the filter, provide an appeals forum for rejected ideas –  Corral Six Sigma

•  Increase organisational willpower –  To act, to redraw goals when necessary



"If I had sixty minutes to do a math problem, I would spend the first fifty-five minutes trying to understand the question." — Albert Einstein

Documents

Lecture 9_Intuition, Insight, Innovation.pdf