Lecture 6: Micro Origin of 911 (I) – The Provocative Strategy

of Al-Qaeda?

17th February 2003 (Monday)

Session Arrangement

T1: 10:00-11:00am Room 4472 [s] T2A: 11:00-11:50am Room 1403 [k] T2B: 11:00-11:50am Room 4472 [s] T3A: 12:00-12:50pm Room 4472 [k] T3B: 12:00-12:50pm Room 3301A [s]

PLEASE FINALIZE TODAY!

Macro Vs Micro Origins

George W Bush: Why do they hate us so much?

Macro Origins: Long-term Historical Development Islamic Fundamentalism, Clash of Civilization, the Americ

an Pride… Micro Origins:

Why was 911 arranged that way? Why did Osama Bin Laden arrange the attack despite his

expectation of American revenge? Laden Conspiracy; Bush Conspiracy; No Conspiracies…

Structure of Lecture 6: Does the Methodology of 911 Matter? 2 Possible Plans of Osama Bin Laden Minimalist Plan: Omar Doctrine Maximalist Plan: The Grand Strategy Conclusion: The “Taoist Strategy”

PART IDoes the Methodology of 911

Matter?

Alternatives of 911

Assassination of President? Overseas Bombing? Ally with Anti-American Powers? Self-strengthening Movement? Cultural/ Psychological Attack?

Does Methodology Matter?

Doesn’t matter: The Invisible Hands Theory

Does matters: The Marxist History Capitalism Imperialism Socialism Class Consciousness against Exploiters

Some Yes, Some No Short-term Vs Long-term History

We Can’t Truly Understand the Planners:

Goals of the Decision-makers

Type 1: Goals on Paper Type 2: Goals by Research Type 3: Conspiracy Theories

Goals not-researchable The American Conspiracy Theory The Al-Qaeda Conspiracy Theory

Goals of Al-Qaeda: Which Level?

PART IIGoals of Osama Bin Laden:

Goals by Research or by Conspiracy?

Assigned Readings

Main Text: Walter Laqueur: “Left, Right, and Beyond – the Changing Face of Terror” (H&R P.71-82)

Supplementary Text: Tariq Ali: The Clash of Fundamentalisms. Chapter 20: The September Surprise. (P.290-302).

The Minimal Argument

Laden has more capabilities: Unconventional Weapons Jihad The Trend of Escalation

“HK Military Expert”: “more to come” Aim: To drive America out of the Middle

East

The Maximal Argument

Laden has no more capabilities: The Vacuum of US Intelligence Eradication of Al-Qaeda Headquart

ers Lacking in Mass Destruction Weap

ons Pentagon (e.g. Wesley Clark):

No more of the same scale Aim: to change the world

PART III From Minimalism – The “Omar Doctrine”

Precedence: Monroe Doctrine (1825)

Latin America (Central + South America)

America’s Sphere of Interest End of Napoleonic War (1815)

End of Spanish Colonial Empire (1820s)

President James Monroe:“America is America’s America” (1825)

The “Omar Doctrine”

“If American wants to root out terrorism and intimidation, then it should withdraw its force from the

Gulf and demonstrate neutrality over the issue of Palestine.”

-- Omar, Head of Taliban (Sept 24 2001)

Message from the Omar Doctrine

“Middle East is Islam’s Middle East” Osama Bin Laden’s Video Speeches Omar instead of Laden:

Victim Vs Aggressor

PART IV From Maximalism – Grand Strategy of Al Qaeda

“Grand Strategy”

Professor Paul Kennedy:

“Grand Strategy” in Cold War “War of Unlimited Boundaries” by Chinese Provocative Strategy

The strategy to unite the whole world against the United States

To provoke the Americans at 911 The Americans will fight back in an insane man

ner and angered the whole world

OBL Step 1: Hysteria of America

Human Loss/ Civilian Loss

Vs Military Loss/ Assassination Hysteria of Mass Opinion

Getting out from the Vietnam War Shadow

Hysteria of Government Extremist Foreign Policies Patriotism, Marginalization of Leftists New McCarthyism against the Muslims…

OBL Step 2: Alienation of Arabic Allies

Sentiments of Muslims Unification

Crisis of Pro-Western Arabic Governments

Coups d’etat? Saudi Arabia: the money

Crown Prince Abdullah’s Dilemma Pakistan: the nuclear arsenal

General Pervez Musharraf: Military Dictatorship by American En

dorsement + Popular Election

OBL Step 3:Alienation of Western Allies

Genuine Anti-war Movements Convince American Allies of the “Next S

tep of America”: towards its allies as well

Neutralization of the Western Bloc France: UN Veto power; The Uncompromisi

ng History… Germany: Real Leader of Europe… Turkey: Internal Security Concern…

OBL Step 4: Revolution of World Order

Anti-Americanism as a New Culture: Message from the Anti-war Demonstration Message from the Internet

Experience of Cultural Revolution in China: From “Great Disorder” to the “Great Order”

Assumptions under Chaos Theory 2001-2003: Successful?

PART V Conclusion – Lessons from

Chinese Philosophy

Osama Bin Laden:Benefit of the Doubt

A “Calculative Planner”:

the planner who can see the outcome -- Computer Simulation/ RISK McArthur: I’ll be Back!

A “Messianic Planner”:

the planner who can’t see the outcome -- “Statements of Wisdom” Jesus: fall of Roman Empire

Taoism in International Relations

Philosophy of Lao Zi’s Tao Te Jing: “The Way can be told is not the W

ay.” (Cp.1) “The Weak conceal its ability to ov

ercome the Strong.” (Cp.36) Osama Bin Laden: Invite the A

merican Invasion under Taoism?

Analogy of the Business World

Stock Market Unfriendly bid by small potatoes Hysterias fight back by Tycoons Chain Effects: sympathy/ allies/ overreach of

tycoons… favorable to small potatoes Revolution of Stock Market

…Laden’s Grand Strategy

An Unfinished Story

Patience!

~~The End~~

Thank you for attending