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Lecture 3: Lecture 3: Current Status of Current Status of Parapsychology Parapsychology Modern Parapsychology Modern Parapsychology Psychics Psychics Psychic superstars Psychic superstars Psychic readings Psychic readings Psychic prediction Psychic prediction Psychic detectives Psychic detectives Ganzfeld studies Ganzfeld studies Remote viewing Remote viewing Psychokinesis Psychokinesis Parapsychology: Science or Pseudoscience? Parapsychology: Science or Pseudoscience? Pseudoscience reconsidered Pseudoscience reconsidered Problems with defining pseudoscience Problems with defining pseudoscience The status of parapsychology The status of parapsychology Conclusion Conclusion

Lecture 3: Current Status of Parapsychology n Modern Parapsychology –Psychics n Psychic superstars n Psychic readings n Psychic prediction n Psychic detectives

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Page 1: Lecture 3: Current Status of Parapsychology n Modern Parapsychology –Psychics n Psychic superstars n Psychic readings n Psychic prediction n Psychic detectives

Lecture 3:Lecture 3:Current Status of Current Status of ParapsychologyParapsychology

Modern ParapsychologyModern Parapsychology– PsychicsPsychics

Psychic superstarsPsychic superstars Psychic readingsPsychic readings Psychic predictionPsychic prediction Psychic detectivesPsychic detectives

– Ganzfeld studiesGanzfeld studies– Remote viewingRemote viewing– PsychokinesisPsychokinesis

Parapsychology: Science or Pseudoscience?Parapsychology: Science or Pseudoscience?– Pseudoscience reconsideredPseudoscience reconsidered– Problems with defining pseudoscienceProblems with defining pseudoscience– The status of parapsychologyThe status of parapsychology– ConclusionConclusion

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Psychic Superstars:Psychic Superstars:Uri GellerUri Geller

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Psychic SuperstarsPsychic Superstars

5 Ways to Bend a Spoon:5 Ways to Bend a Spoon: 1. Distract everyone, bend the object manually, 1. Distract everyone, bend the object manually,

conceal the bend, and later reveal it gradually.conceal the bend, and later reveal it gradually. 2. Pre-stress the object so that later it will appear 2. Pre-stress the object so that later it will appear

to melt and snap.to melt and snap. 3. Amongst a large collection of objects, some will 3. Amongst a large collection of objects, some will

be bent already.be bent already. 4. Substitute already bent objects.4. Substitute already bent objects. 5. Hold the object in such a way than an existing 5. Hold the object in such a way than an existing

bend is not apparent, but gradually turn the bend is not apparent, but gradually turn the object to reveal the bend.object to reveal the bend.

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Geller’s RepertoireGeller’s Repertoire

Spoon bendingSpoon bending Watch mendingWatch mending Thought sending (and reading)Thought sending (and reading) Targ & Puthoff (1974)Targ & Puthoff (1974)

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Other Psychic SuperstarsOther Psychic Superstars

J Z Knight, channels “Ramtha”J Z Knight, channels “Ramtha” US media mediums: John Edward, US media mediums: John Edward,

James van Praagh, and Sylvia James van Praagh, and Sylvia BrowneBrowne

UK media mediums: Derek Acorah, UK media mediums: Derek Acorah, Colin Fry, and Gordon Smith.Colin Fry, and Gordon Smith.

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Cold ReadingCold Reading

A technique used to convince A technique used to convince complete strangers that you know complete strangers that you know all about themall about them

One aspect is the Barnum Effect: One aspect is the Barnum Effect: the tendency for people to accept the tendency for people to accept vague, ambiguous, and general vague, ambiguous, and general statements as descriptive of their statements as descriptive of their unique personalitiesunique personalities

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Ray Hyman’s Ray Hyman’s “Rules of the Game”“Rules of the Game”

1. 1. Show confidenceShow confidence.. 2. 2. Make creative use of the latest Make creative use of the latest

polls, surveys and statisticspolls, surveys and statistics.. 3. 3. Set the stage for your readingSet the stage for your reading.. 4. 4. Gain the client’s cooperationGain the client’s cooperation.. 5. 5. Use a gimmick such as a crystal Use a gimmick such as a crystal

ball, Tarot cards, palmistry, etcball, Tarot cards, palmistry, etc.. 6. 6. Have a list of stock phrasesHave a list of stock phrases..

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Ray Hyman’s Ray Hyman’s “Rules of the Game” (cont.)“Rules of the Game” (cont.)

7. 7. Keep your eyes openKeep your eyes open.. 8. 8. Use the technique of “fishing”Use the technique of “fishing”.. 9. 9. Learn to be a good listenerLearn to be a good listener.. 10. 10. Dramatize your readingDramatize your reading.. 11. 11. Always give the impression that you Always give the impression that you

know more than you are sayingknow more than you are saying.. 12. 12. Flatter your client at every Flatter your client at every

opportunityopportunity.. 13. 13. Tell the client what the client wants to Tell the client what the client wants to

hearhear

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““Sleight of Tongue”Sleight of Tongue” Turn a statement/question about the Turn a statement/question about the

present or past into one about the future.present or past into one about the future. Broaden the area to which you were Broaden the area to which you were

referringreferring.. Tell the client to go and check.Tell the client to go and check. Insist that you know the client better Insist that you know the client better

than they know themselves.than they know themselves. Reinterpret what you said to make it Reinterpret what you said to make it

seem right.seem right. Reinterpret the facts.Reinterpret the facts.

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Schouten (1994)Schouten (1994)

The main question asked in most of these The main question asked in most of these studies was whether a significant number of studies was whether a significant number of correct statements deviated significantly from correct statements deviated significantly from chance expectation. Another question, less chance expectation. Another question, less often addressed, was whether psi ability was often addressed, was whether psi ability was necessary to explain the correct statements. necessary to explain the correct statements. The present study indicates that the number of The present study indicates that the number of studies with significant positive results is studies with significant positive results is rather small. Moreover, in most of these, one rather small. Moreover, in most of these, one or more potential sources of error were or more potential sources of error were present that might have influenced the present that might have influenced the outcome.outcome.

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Schouten (1994)Schouten (1994)

It seems, therefore, that there is little It seems, therefore, that there is little reason to expect psychics to make correct reason to expect psychics to make correct statements about matters unknown at the statements about matters unknown at the time more often than would be expected time more often than would be expected by chance. An explanation is offered for by chance. An explanation is offered for the apparent successes of psychics in the apparent successes of psychics in everyday-life consultations that takes into everyday-life consultations that takes into consideration the role of the client or consideration the role of the client or sitter, which is generally underestimated. sitter, which is generally underestimated. Extremely put, it is proposed that it is the Extremely put, it is proposed that it is the client who makes the psychic.client who makes the psychic.

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Schwartz et al. (2001)Schwartz et al. (2001)

Claimed to have proved that Claimed to have proved that mediums could speak to the deadmediums could speak to the dead

Wiseman & O’Keeffe’s criticisms:Wiseman & O’Keeffe’s criticisms:– Potential for judging biasPotential for judging bias– Inappropriate control groupInappropriate control group– Possibility of sensory leakagePossibility of sensory leakage

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Psychic PredictionPsychic Prediction

Nostradamus, 1503-1566Nostradamus, 1503-1566 Still the subject of best-selling books and Still the subject of best-selling books and

documentariesdocumentaries Said to have predicted “the rise of Said to have predicted “the rise of

Napoleon, the rise and fall of Hitler, World Napoleon, the rise and fall of Hitler, World Wars I and II, ... the deaths of John F. and Wars I and II, ... the deaths of John F. and Robert Kennedy, to name a few. He is even Robert Kennedy, to name a few. He is even said to have said to have namednamed Hitler, getting his Hitler, getting his name correct to within a single letter.” name correct to within a single letter.” (Hines, 1988, p. 40). (Hines, 1988, p. 40).

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Randi’s (1990) Rules of the Randi’s (1990) Rules of the Prophesy GameProphesy Game

Make lots of predictions, and hope that some Make lots of predictions, and hope that some come true. If they do, point to them with pride. come true. If they do, point to them with pride. Ignore the others.Ignore the others.

Be very vague and ambiguous. Definite Be very vague and ambiguous. Definite statements can be wrong, but “possible” items statements can be wrong, but “possible” items can always be reinterpreted. can always be reinterpreted.

Use a lot of symbolism. Be metaphorical, using Use a lot of symbolism. Be metaphorical, using images of animals, names, initials. They can images of animals, names, initials. They can be fitted to many situations by the believers.be fitted to many situations by the believers.

Cover the situation both ways and select the Cover the situation both ways and select the winner as the “real” intent of your statement.winner as the “real” intent of your statement.

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Randi’s (1990) Rules of the Randi’s (1990) Rules of the Prophesy Game (cont.)Prophesy Game (cont.)

Credit God with your success, and blame Credit God with your success, and blame yourself for any incorrect interpretations of His yourself for any incorrect interpretations of His divine messages. divine messages.

No matter how often you’re wrong, plough No matter how often you’re wrong, plough ahead. The Believers won’t notice your mistakes, ahead. The Believers won’t notice your mistakes, and will continue to follow your every word.and will continue to follow your every word.

Predict catastrophes; they are far more easily Predict catastrophes; they are far more easily remembered and more popular by far.remembered and more popular by far.

When predicting after the fact, but representing When predicting after the fact, but representing that the prophesy preceded the event, be wrong that the prophesy preceded the event, be wrong just enough to appear uncertain about the exact just enough to appear uncertain about the exact details; too good a prophecy is suspect.details; too good a prophecy is suspect.

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Psychic DetectivesPsychic Detectives Piet Hein Hoebens (1985, p. 634):Piet Hein Hoebens (1985, p. 634):

The standard skeptical explanation for the alleged The standard skeptical explanation for the alleged successes of psychic detectives is that these sensitives successes of psychic detectives is that these sensitives offer their consultants the verbal equivalent of a offer their consultants the verbal equivalent of a Rorschach test. Their statements are typically vague, Rorschach test. Their statements are typically vague, rambling, and verbose. The accuracy of the "readings" is rambling, and verbose. The accuracy of the "readings" is evaluated post factum: "Good" sitters retroactively evaluated post factum: "Good" sitters retroactively interpret their ambiguous and often contradictory interpret their ambiguous and often contradictory statements in such a way that they fit the true facts and statements in such a way that they fit the true facts and obligingly forget the many details that were too wide of obligingly forget the many details that were too wide of the mark. Complete failures are ignored or suppressed. the mark. Complete failures are ignored or suppressed. The possibility that some of the paranormal information The possibility that some of the paranormal information could have been acquired by normal means is quietly could have been acquired by normal means is quietly discounted. Occasional lucky guesses (consistent with the discounted. Occasional lucky guesses (consistent with the chance hypothesis) are enhanced by selective reporting chance hypothesis) are enhanced by selective reporting and editorial embellishment.and editorial embellishment.

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Gerard CroisetGerard Croiset

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Nella Jones: Nella Jones: "inside the mind of the Yorkshire "inside the mind of the Yorkshire

Ripper"Ripper" Psychic News (5th June 1982):Psychic News (5th June 1982):

Eighteen months before the police arrested Peter Eighteen months before the police arrested Peter Sutcliffe, the Yorkshire Ripper, Kent medium Nella Sutcliffe, the Yorkshire Ripper, Kent medium Nella Jones drew a picture of him, described where he Jones drew a picture of him, described where he lived and worked and accurately predicted two lived and worked and accurately predicted two more murders before he was caught … Eventually more murders before he was caught … Eventually Nella went to Yorkshire and accompanied police Nella went to Yorkshire and accompanied police to help them locate clues and places. Her mental to help them locate clues and places. Her mental pictures were always accurate. Nella could pictures were always accurate. Nella could exactly describe details of a location before they exactly describe details of a location before they ever arrived on the spot. Police were amazed that ever arrived on the spot. Police were amazed that the psychic could direct them to places she had the psychic could direct them to places she had never seen.never seen.

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Ganzfeld Study: ReceiverGanzfeld Study: Receiver

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Ganzfeld Study: SenderGanzfeld Study: Sender

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The Ganzfeld StudiesThe Ganzfeld Studies

Ray Hyman (1985) criticised:Ray Hyman (1985) criticised:

1. the means used to calculate replication 1. the means used to calculate replication ratesrates

2. the use of multiple criteria for scoring hits2. the use of multiple criteria for scoring hits 3. procedural flaws, such as inappropriate 3. procedural flaws, such as inappropriate

randomisation, statistical errors, the randomisation, statistical errors, the inclusion of the actual target picture in the inclusion of the actual target picture in the set to be judged rather than a duplicate, set to be judged rather than a duplicate, and insufficient details of procedure.and insufficient details of procedure.

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Hyman's (1985) Conclusion:Hyman's (1985) Conclusion:

The ganzfeld psi data base, despite initial The ganzfeld psi data base, despite initial impressions, in inadequate either to impressions, in inadequate either to support the contention of a repeatable support the contention of a repeatable study or to demonstrate the reality of psi. study or to demonstrate the reality of psi. … Indeed, parapsychologists may be … Indeed, parapsychologists may be doing themselves and their cause a doing themselves and their cause a disservice by attempting to use these disservice by attempting to use these studies as examples of the current state studies as examples of the current state of their field.of their field.

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Hyman and Honorton (1986, Hyman and Honorton (1986, p.351):p.351):

We agree that there is an overall significant We agree that there is an overall significant effect in this data base that cannot reasonably effect in this data base that cannot reasonably be explained by selective reporting or multiple be explained by selective reporting or multiple analysis. We continue to differ over the degree analysis. We continue to differ over the degree to which the effect constitutes evidence for to which the effect constitutes evidence for psi, but we agree that the final verdict awaits psi, but we agree that the final verdict awaits the outcome of future experiments conducted the outcome of future experiments conducted by a broader range of investigators and by a broader range of investigators and according to more stringent standards.according to more stringent standards.

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Standards Spelled out in the Standards Spelled out in the Report:Report:

Bem and Honorton (1994, p.9)Bem and Honorton (1994, p.9)

strict security precautions against sensory strict security precautions against sensory leakage, testing and documentation of leakage, testing and documentation of randomization methods for selecting targets randomization methods for selecting targets and sequencing the judging pool, statistical and sequencing the judging pool, statistical correction for multiple analyses, advance correction for multiple analyses, advance specification of the status of the experiment specification of the status of the experiment (e.g., pilot study or confirmatory (e.g., pilot study or confirmatory experiment), and full documentation in the experiment), and full documentation in the published report of the experimental published report of the experimental procedures and the status of statistical tests procedures and the status of statistical tests (e.g., planned or post hoc).(e.g., planned or post hoc).

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Milton and Wiseman (1999)Milton and Wiseman (1999)

Meta-analysis of 30 ganzfeld ESP studies Meta-analysis of 30 ganzfeld ESP studies from 7 independent laboratories. from 7 independent laboratories.

The studies failed to confirm Bem and The studies failed to confirm Bem and Honorton's (1994) main effect of Honorton's (1994) main effect of participants scoring above chance on the participants scoring above chance on the ESP task.ESP task.

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Remote ViewingRemote Viewing

Receiver based in laboratory with Receiver based in laboratory with experimenterexperimenter

Sender(s) at randomly selected remote Sender(s) at randomly selected remote locations attempt to telepathically locations attempt to telepathically transmit impressions from sitetransmit impressions from site

Receiver’s impressions transcribed for Receiver’s impressions transcribed for later ratinglater rating

Clairvoyance can be tested (no Clairvoyance can be tested (no senders)senders)

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Targ and Puthoff (1974)Targ and Puthoff (1974)

Significant results based on two Significant results based on two flaws:flaws:– Judges given list of targets in same Judges given list of targets in same

order as used in experimentorder as used in experiment– Cues relating to position of response Cues relating to position of response

in sequence left in transcriptsin sequence left in transcripts

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Hansen et al. (1992)Hansen et al. (1992) The research departs from criteria usually The research departs from criteria usually

expected in formal scientific experimentation. expected in formal scientific experimentation. Problems occur with regard to randomisation, Problems occur with regard to randomisation, statistical baselines, application of statistical statistical baselines, application of statistical models, agent coding of descriptor lists, feedback models, agent coding of descriptor lists, feedback to percipients, sensory cues, and precautions to percipients, sensory cues, and precautions against cheating. ... It is concluded that the against cheating. ... It is concluded that the quoted significance values are meaningless quoted significance values are meaningless because of defects in the experimental and because of defects in the experimental and statistical procedures. (p. 97)statistical procedures. (p. 97)

Undoubtedly some of the poorest quality ESP Undoubtedly some of the poorest quality ESP experiments published in many years. (p. 107)experiments published in many years. (p. 107)

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Utts (1996, p.3):Utts (1996, p.3):

Using the standards applied to any other area of Using the standards applied to any other area of science, it is concluded that psychic functioning science, it is concluded that psychic functioning has been well established. The statistical results has been well established. The statistical results of the studies examined are far beyond what is of the studies examined are far beyond what is expected by chance. Arguments that these expected by chance. Arguments that these results could be due to methodological flaws in results could be due to methodological flaws in the experiments are soundly refuted. Effects of a the experiments are soundly refuted. Effects of a magnitude similar to those found in government-magnitude similar to those found in government-sponsored research at SRI and SAIC have been sponsored research at SRI and SAIC have been replicated at a number of laboratories around the replicated at a number of laboratories around the world. Such consistency cannot be readily world. Such consistency cannot be readily explained by claims of flaws or fraud.explained by claims of flaws or fraud.

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Hyman (1996, p. 39)Hyman (1996, p. 39) I agree with Jessica Utts that the effect I agree with Jessica Utts that the effect

sizes reported in the SAIC experiments and sizes reported in the SAIC experiments and in the recent ganzfeld studies probably in the recent ganzfeld studies probably cannot be dismissed as due to chance. Nor cannot be dismissed as due to chance. Nor do they appear to be accounted for by do they appear to be accounted for by multiple testing, file-drawer distortions, multiple testing, file-drawer distortions, inappropriate statistical testing or other inappropriate statistical testing or other misuse of statistical inference. Having misuse of statistical inference. Having accepted the existence of non-chance accepted the existence of non-chance effects, the focus now is upon whether effects, the focus now is upon whether these effects have normal causes.these effects have normal causes.

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Hyman (1996, p. 43)Hyman (1996, p. 43) I admit that the latest findings should make I admit that the latest findings should make

[parapsychologists] optimistic. The case for [parapsychologists] optimistic. The case for psychic functioning seems better than it ever psychic functioning seems better than it ever has been. The contemporary findings along has been. The contemporary findings along with the output of the SRI/SAIC program do with the output of the SRI/SAIC program do seem to indicate that something beyond odd seem to indicate that something beyond odd statistical hiccups is taking place. I also have statistical hiccups is taking place. I also have to admit that I do not have a ready to admit that I do not have a ready explanation for these observed effects. explanation for these observed effects. Inexplicable statistical departures from Inexplicable statistical departures from chance, however, are a far cry from chance, however, are a far cry from compelling evidence for anomalous cognition.compelling evidence for anomalous cognition.

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Wiseman and Milton Wiseman and Milton (1999)(1999)

Discovered a number of potential Discovered a number of potential pathways for information leakage pathways for information leakage in SAIC Experiment 1in SAIC Experiment 1

SAIC team produced no less than SAIC team produced no less than five different versions of protocols five different versions of protocols used!used!

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Wiseman & Milton (1999, Wiseman & Milton (1999, p. 3)p. 3)

These difficulties not only make an These difficulties not only make an assessment of Experiment One extremely assessment of Experiment One extremely difficult, but also call into question difficult, but also call into question whether the assessors commissioned to whether the assessors commissioned to write a US-government sponsored report write a US-government sponsored report on the other studies in the SAIC program on the other studies in the SAIC program [i.e., Utts and Hyman] would have been [i.e., Utts and Hyman] would have been given accurate information about their given accurate information about their unrecorded details.unrecorded details.

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PsychokinesisPsychokinesis

Macro-PK refers to alleged Macro-PK refers to alleged psychokinetic phenomena which psychokinetic phenomena which are on such a large scale that they are on such a large scale that they are immediately observableare immediately observable

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Macro-PK?Macro-PK?

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Psychokinetic Metal Psychokinetic Metal Bending?Bending?

No, Girard is a FraudNo, Girard is a Fraud

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PsychokinesisPsychokinesis

Macro-PK refers to alleged Macro-PK refers to alleged psychokinetic phenomena which psychokinetic phenomena which are on such a large scale that they are on such a large scale that they are immediately observableare immediately observable

Micro-PK refers to much weaker Micro-PK refers to much weaker effects which would usually only be effects which would usually only be demonstrable by statistical analysis demonstrable by statistical analysis of the results of an experimentof the results of an experiment

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Rhine’s Dice PK ApparatusRhine’s Dice PK Apparatus

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Poltergeist: Noisy Ghost?Poltergeist: Noisy Ghost?

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… … or Recurrent or Recurrent Spontaneous Spontaneous

Psychokinesis (RSPK)?Psychokinesis (RSPK)?

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… … or nothing paranormal or nothing paranormal at all?at all?

Sincere misinterpretation of Sincere misinterpretation of natural phenomenanatural phenomena

HoaxesHoaxes– Amityville HorrorAmityville Horror– Tina Resch in Columbus, OhioTina Resch in Columbus, Ohio

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Rhine’s Dice PK ApparatusRhine’s Dice PK Apparatus

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REG StudiesREG Studies

Helmut SchmidtHelmut Schmidt Robert Jahn, Princeton Engineering Robert Jahn, Princeton Engineering

Anomalies Research GroupAnomalies Research Group Very tiny but highly statistically Very tiny but highly statistically

significant effectssignificant effects

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Schmidt’s REG StudiesSchmidt’s REG Studies

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Stages in Schmidt’s WorkStages in Schmidt’s Work

Original studies directed at precognition Original studies directed at precognition – but could not be distinguished from PK– but could not be distinguished from PK

Then studied PK directlyThen studied PK directly Went on to test “quantum mechanical Went on to test “quantum mechanical

model” of psi using REGs …model” of psi using REGs … … … then using pseudo-random then using pseudo-random

sequences seeded by single number sequences seeded by single number from REGfrom REG

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Alcock’s (1990) CritiqueAlcock’s (1990) Critique

research programme is unusually disjointedresearch programme is unusually disjointed failure to consistently apply proper failure to consistently apply proper

randomisation checks to target seriesrandomisation checks to target series inadequate controlsinadequate controls general tendency to work alone and to not general tendency to work alone and to not

make raw data available to othersmake raw data available to others ad hocad hoc hypotheses and experimental goals hypotheses and experimental goals lack of methodological rigourlack of methodological rigour

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Jahn and PEAR GroupJahn and PEAR Group

Essentially replicated Schmidt’s Essentially replicated Schmidt’s findings using REGsfindings using REGs

Also using mechanical cascade Also using mechanical cascade devicedevice

Effects found regardless of time Effects found regardless of time and space constraintsand space constraints

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Concerns Regarding Jahn’s Concerns Regarding Jahn’s ResultsResults

Single participant, a member of PEAR team, Single participant, a member of PEAR team, provided large proportion of dataprovided large proportion of data

Not as much variability in baseline data as Not as much variability in baseline data as chance would predictchance would predict– Jahn himself has remarked that what makes the Jahn himself has remarked that what makes the

situation even odder is that when the baseline situation even odder is that when the baseline statistics and the high and low scores are all statistics and the high and low scores are all added together, the result is a well-behaved added together, the result is a well-behaved Gaussian distribution. It is almost as if the extra Gaussian distribution. It is almost as if the extra hits found in the high and low scores have been hits found in the high and low scores have been taken from what would otherwise have been taken from what would otherwise have been outliers of the baseline condition.outliers of the baseline condition.

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Hyman (1989)Hyman (1989) ... the only reasonable conclusion to draw from ... the only reasonable conclusion to draw from

the existing body of data from the [REG] the existing body of data from the [REG] experiments is that we do not know what to experiments is that we do not know what to make of it. We cannot say that the results were make of it. We cannot say that the results were definitely the result of some artifact. On the definitely the result of some artifact. On the other hand we cannot say that they were not. other hand we cannot say that they were not. The only way that we will be able to draw The only way that we will be able to draw meaningful conclusions from such experiments meaningful conclusions from such experiments is when they have been conducted according to is when they have been conducted according to the standards that both the parapsychologists the standards that both the parapsychologists and their critics assert ought to be met by any and their critics assert ought to be met by any acceptable parapsychological experiment.acceptable parapsychological experiment.

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Bosch, Steinkamp & Boller Bosch, Steinkamp & Boller (2006)(2006)

Meta-analysis of 380 PK studies Meta-analysis of 380 PK studies employing REGsemploying REGs

Small but significant overall effect Small but significant overall effect sizesize

But effect sizes “strongly and But effect sizes “strongly and inversely related to sample size” inversely related to sample size” and “extremely heterogeneous”and “extremely heterogeneous”

A result of publication bias?A result of publication bias?

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Comments on Bosch et al. Comments on Bosch et al. (2006)(2006)

Wilson & Shadish (2006) do not accept that Wilson & Shadish (2006) do not accept that any significant effect, however small, is any significant effect, however small, is “fundamentally important”“fundamentally important”

Suggest that parapsychologists should Suggest that parapsychologists should concentrate on producing larger PK effects concentrate on producing larger PK effects or on specifying the conditions under which or on specifying the conditions under which they would accept the null hypothesisthey would accept the null hypothesis

Radin et al. (2006) question the publication Radin et al. (2006) question the publication bias explanation, believing the evidence bias explanation, believing the evidence supports the existence of genuine PKsupports the existence of genuine PK

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Pseudoscience Pseudoscience ReconsideredReconsidered

Defining science and the demarcation Defining science and the demarcation problem: Can we differentiate science problem: Can we differentiate science from non-science?from non-science?

Defining pseudoscience: Do strict Defining pseudoscience: Do strict criteria exist to allow us to criteria exist to allow us to differentiate between science and differentiate between science and pseudoscience?pseudoscience?

Assessing the current status of Assessing the current status of parapsychology: Is it a science or a parapsychology: Is it a science or a pseudoscience?pseudoscience?

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Defining PseudoscienceDefining Pseudoscience

““Claims and methods that are falsely Claims and methods that are falsely presented as science”presented as science”

But what is science?But what is science? Edge, Morris, Palmer, & Rush (1986): Edge, Morris, Palmer, & Rush (1986):

“although there is no easy definition and “although there is no easy definition and although there are no hard and fast although there are no hard and fast criteria by which we can easily judge criteria by which we can easily judge whether a discipline is scientific, there do whether a discipline is scientific, there do seem to be benchmarks of good science”seem to be benchmarks of good science”

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Absolute Criteria?Absolute Criteria? Radner & Radner (1982): if a discipline Radner & Radner (1982): if a discipline

displayed evidence of even one “mark of displayed evidence of even one “mark of pseudoscience,” that was enough to pseudoscience,” that was enough to condemn that discipline as being condemn that discipline as being pseudoscientificpseudoscientific

Lilienfeld, Lynn, & Lohr (2003): “science Lilienfeld, Lynn, & Lohr (2003): “science probably differs from pseudoscience in probably differs from pseudoscience in degree rather than in kind. Science and degree rather than in kind. Science and pseudoscience can be thought of as Roschian pseudoscience can be thought of as Roschian or open concepts, which possess intrinsically or open concepts, which possess intrinsically fuzzy boundaries and an indefinitely fuzzy boundaries and an indefinitely extendable list of indicators.”extendable list of indicators.”

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Radners’ “Marks of Radners’ “Marks of Pseudoscience”Pseudoscience”

““found only in crackpot work and never in found only in crackpot work and never in genuine scientific work”, e.g.,genuine scientific work”, e.g.,

Irrefutable hypothesesIrrefutable hypotheses The grab-bag approach to evidenceThe grab-bag approach to evidence Looking for mysteriesLooking for mysteries Appeal to mythsAppeal to myths Argument from spurious similarityArgument from spurious similarity Refusal to revise in the light of evidenceRefusal to revise in the light of evidence

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Alcock’s (1981) Summary of Alcock’s (1981) Summary of Bunge’s (1980) Criteria:Bunge’s (1980) Criteria:

its theory of knowledge is its theory of knowledge is subjectivistic, containing aspects subjectivistic, containing aspects accessible only to the initiated;accessible only to the initiated;

its formal background is modest, with its formal background is modest, with only rare involvement of mathematics only rare involvement of mathematics or logic;or logic;

its fund of knowledge contains its fund of knowledge contains untestable or even false hypotheses untestable or even false hypotheses which are in conflict with a larger body which are in conflict with a larger body of knowledge;of knowledge;

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Alcock’s (1981) Summary of Alcock’s (1981) Summary of Bunge’s (1980) Criteria Bunge’s (1980) Criteria

(cont.):(cont.):

its methods are neither checkable its methods are neither checkable by alternative methods nor by alternative methods nor justifiable in terms of well-justifiable in terms of well-confirmed theories;confirmed theories;

it borrows nothing from it borrows nothing from neighbouring fields, there is no neighbouring fields, there is no overlap with another field of overlap with another field of research;research;

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Alcock’s (1981) Summary of Alcock’s (1981) Summary of Bunge’s (1980) Criteria Bunge’s (1980) Criteria

(cont.):(cont.):

it has no specific background of it has no specific background of relatively confirmed theories;relatively confirmed theories;

it has an unchanging body of belief, it has an unchanging body of belief, whereas scientific enquiry teems with whereas scientific enquiry teems with novelty;novelty;

it has a world-view admitting elusive it has a world-view admitting elusive immaterial entities, such as disembodied immaterial entities, such as disembodied minds, whereas science countenances minds, whereas science countenances only changing concrete things.only changing concrete things.

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Lilienfeld’s (2005) Features Lilienfeld’s (2005) Features of Pseudoscience of Pseudoscience

A tendency to invoke ad hoc hypotheses, which A tendency to invoke ad hoc hypotheses, which can be thought of as “escape hatches” or can be thought of as “escape hatches” or loopholes, as a means of immunising claims loopholes, as a means of immunising claims from falsification;from falsification;

An absence of self-correction and an An absence of self-correction and an accompanying intellectual stagnation;accompanying intellectual stagnation;

An emphasis on confirmation rather than An emphasis on confirmation rather than refutation;refutation;

A tendency to place the burden of proof on A tendency to place the burden of proof on sceptics, not proponents, of claims;sceptics, not proponents, of claims;

Excessive reliance on anecdotal and testimonial Excessive reliance on anecdotal and testimonial evidence to substantiate claims;evidence to substantiate claims;

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Lilienfeld’s (2005) Features Lilienfeld’s (2005) Features of Pseudoscience (cont.)of Pseudoscience (cont.)

Evasion of the scrutiny afforded by peer Evasion of the scrutiny afforded by peer review;review;

Absence of “connectivity”, that is, a failure Absence of “connectivity”, that is, a failure to build on existing scientific knowledge;to build on existing scientific knowledge;

Use of impressive-sounding jargon whose Use of impressive-sounding jargon whose primary purpose is to lend claims a façade primary purpose is to lend claims a façade of scientific respectability;of scientific respectability;

An absence of boundary conditions, that An absence of boundary conditions, that is, a failure to specify the settings under is, a failure to specify the settings under which claims do not hold.which claims do not hold.

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Problems with Defining Problems with Defining PseudosciencePseudoscience

Common themes but much Common themes but much variationvariation

Influenced by cultural background Influenced by cultural background and potential target for labelling?and potential target for labelling?

Problems with falsification as Problems with falsification as defining feature of sciencedefining feature of science– At best, prescriptive not descriptiveAt best, prescriptive not descriptive– Hypothesis should not be abandoned Hypothesis should not be abandoned

following first apparent falsificationfollowing first apparent falsification

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Problems with Defining Problems with Defining Pseudoscience (cont.)Pseudoscience (cont.)

But falsification still useful indicator if But falsification still useful indicator if eithereither– Hypothesis non-falsifiable in principle; orHypothesis non-falsifiable in principle; or– Over-reliance on ad hoc excuses to Over-reliance on ad hoc excuses to

avoid falsificationavoid falsification McNally (2003): “Pseudoscience is McNally (2003): “Pseudoscience is

like pornography: we cannot define like pornography: we cannot define it, but we know it when we see it.” it, but we know it when we see it.”

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Should the Pseudoscience Should the Pseudoscience Concept be Abandoned?Concept be Abandoned?

McNally (2003): “When therapeutic McNally (2003): “When therapeutic entrepreneurs make claims on behalf entrepreneurs make claims on behalf of their interventions, we should not of their interventions, we should not waste our time trying to determine waste our time trying to determine whether their interventions qualify as whether their interventions qualify as pseudoscientific. Rather, we should pseudoscientific. Rather, we should ask them: How do you know that your ask them: How do you know that your intervention works? What is your intervention works? What is your evidence?” evidence?”

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Should the Pseudoscience Should the Pseudoscience Concept be Abandoned? Concept be Abandoned?

(cont.)(cont.)

Truzzi (1996): “there are good Truzzi (1996): “there are good reasons to purge the term reasons to purge the term pseudoscience pseudoscience from our disputes. from our disputes. It may simply prove more useful It may simply prove more useful and less incendiary to speak of and less incendiary to speak of bad, poor, bad, poor, or even or even stupid stupid theories theories without entanglement in the without entanglement in the demarcation problem.” demarcation problem.”

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Lilienfeld et al. (2003)Lilienfeld et al. (2003)

““the fuzziness of such categories does the fuzziness of such categories does not mean that distinctions between not mean that distinctions between science and pseudoscience are science and pseudoscience are fictional or entirely arbitrary. As fictional or entirely arbitrary. As psychophysicist S. S. Stevens psychophysicist S. S. Stevens observed, the fact that the precise observed, the fact that the precise boundary between day and night is boundary between day and night is indistinct does not imply that day and indistinct does not imply that day and night cannot be meaningfully night cannot be meaningfully differentiated.”differentiated.”

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Lilienfeld et al. (2003; Lilienfeld et al. (2003; cont.)cont.)

““From this perspective, From this perspective, pseudosciences can be conceptualized pseudosciences can be conceptualized as possessing a fallible, but as possessing a fallible, but nevertheless useful, list of indicators nevertheless useful, list of indicators or ‘warning signs.’ The more such or ‘warning signs.’ The more such warning signs a discipline exhibits, the warning signs a discipline exhibits, the more it begins to cross the murky more it begins to cross the murky dividing line separating science from dividing line separating science from pseudoscience.”pseudoscience.”

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ParapsychologyParapsychology

Often defined as the scientific study of Often defined as the scientific study of claims of extrasensory perception (ESP), claims of extrasensory perception (ESP), psychokinesis (PK), and life-after-deathpsychokinesis (PK), and life-after-death

As exemplified by research published in As exemplified by research published in the the Journal of ParapsychologyJournal of Parapsychology

Parapsychological Association became Parapsychological Association became an affiliated organisation of the an affiliated organisation of the American Association for the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 1969Advancement of Science in 1969

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Mousseau’s (2003) Mousseau’s (2003) AnalysisAnalysis

Compared contents of mainstream Compared contents of mainstream scientific journals, e.g.,scientific journals, e.g.,– Molecular and Optical PhysicsMolecular and Optical Physics– British Journal of PsychologyBritish Journal of Psychology

with “fringe” journals, e.g., with “fringe” journals, e.g., – Journal of ParapsychologyJournal of Parapsychology– Journal of Scientific ExplorationJournal of Scientific Exploration

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Is Parapsychology a Is Parapsychology a Pseudoscience?Pseudoscience?

Issues relating to falsifiability (e.g., Alcock, Issues relating to falsifiability (e.g., Alcock, 1981):1981):– Experimenter effectsExperimenter effects– Sheep-goat effectsSheep-goat effects

Emphasis on confirmation rather than Emphasis on confirmation rather than refutation:refutation: Mousseau (2003, p. 274) Mousseau (2003, p. 274) reported that in her sample “almost half of reported that in her sample “almost half of the fringe articles report a negative the fringe articles report a negative outcome (disconfirmation). By contrast, no outcome (disconfirmation). By contrast, no report of a negative result has been found report of a negative result has been found in my sample of mainstream journals.” in my sample of mainstream journals.”

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Is Parapsychology a Is Parapsychology a Pseudoscience? (cont.)Pseudoscience? (cont.)

Formal background modest, little Formal background modest, little mathematics or logic: mathematics or logic: Mousseau (2003) Mousseau (2003) reported that, “All of the articles that aim reported that, “All of the articles that aim to gather new empirical evidence, whether to gather new empirical evidence, whether in fringe journals or in mainstream in fringe journals or in mainstream journals, use statistical analysis.”journals, use statistical analysis.”

Failure to propose new hypotheses and Failure to propose new hypotheses and theories: theories: Mousseau (2003) found that 17% Mousseau (2003) found that 17% of fringe articles deal with theory and of fringe articles deal with theory and propose new hypotheses.propose new hypotheses.

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Is Parapsychology a Is Parapsychology a Pseudoscience? (cont.)Pseudoscience? (cont.)

Over-reliance on testimonials and Over-reliance on testimonials and anecdotal evidence: anecdotal evidence: There probably There probably is more reliance on anecdotal is more reliance on anecdotal evidence within parapsychology than evidence within parapsychology than within most other sciences. But, as within most other sciences. But, as Mousseau (2003) reports, “43% of Mousseau (2003) reports, “43% of articles in the fringe journals deal articles in the fringe journals deal with empirical matters and almost with empirical matters and almost one-fourth report laboratory one-fourth report laboratory experiments.” experiments.”

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Is Parapsychology a Is Parapsychology a Pseudoscience? (cont.)Pseudoscience? (cont.)

Absence of self-correction:Absence of self-correction: Mousseau (2003): “… Mousseau (2003): “… 29% of the fringe-journal articles […] discuss 29% of the fringe-journal articles […] discuss progress of research, problems encountered, progress of research, problems encountered, epistemological issues. This kind of article is epistemological issues. This kind of article is completely absent from the mainstream sample.”completely absent from the mainstream sample.”

Lack of overlap with other fields of research: Lack of overlap with other fields of research: According to Mousseau (2003), in fringe-journals, According to Mousseau (2003), in fringe-journals, 36% of citations were of articles in mainstream 36% of citations were of articles in mainstream science journals (e.g., psychology, physics, science journals (e.g., psychology, physics, neuroscience). In her sample of mainstream neuroscience). In her sample of mainstream science journals, however, 90% of citations were science journals, however, 90% of citations were to articles in the same field (99% in the case of to articles in the same field (99% in the case of physics).physics).

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Is Parapsychology a Is Parapsychology a Pseudoscience? (cont.)Pseudoscience? (cont.)

Use of impressive sounding jargon: Use of impressive sounding jargon: Many Many proponents of the paranormal often use proponents of the paranormal often use scientific-sounding terminology such as scientific-sounding terminology such as “vibrations”, “energy”, “fields”, “vibrations”, “energy”, “fields”, “harmonization”, and so on, in ways that “harmonization”, and so on, in ways that bear little resemblance to the precisely bear little resemblance to the precisely defined meanings that such terms have defined meanings that such terms have when used by scientists. However, such when used by scientists. However, such imprecise usage is, by and large, not a imprecise usage is, by and large, not a feature of articles published in peer-feature of articles published in peer-reviewed journals within the field. reviewed journals within the field.

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Is Parapsychology a Is Parapsychology a Pseudoscience? (cont.)Pseudoscience? (cont.)

Examples of (arguably) failed Examples of (arguably) failed criteria:criteria:– it has no specific background of it has no specific background of

relatively confirmed theoriesrelatively confirmed theories– it has a world-view admitting elusive it has a world-view admitting elusive

immaterial entities, such as immaterial entities, such as disembodied minds disembodied minds

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ConclusionConclusion

Parapsychology can still be judged Parapsychology can still be judged to be a science even if, as seems to be a science even if, as seems quite possible, paranormal forces quite possible, paranormal forces do not existdo not exist

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AcknowledgementAcknowledgement

With thanks to Hilary Evans, With thanks to Hilary Evans, proprietor of the Mary Evans proprietor of the Mary Evans Picture Library, for permission to Picture Library, for permission to use illustrations featured in this use illustrations featured in this presentation. These illustrations presentation. These illustrations must not be reproduced in any must not be reproduced in any form without permission from the form without permission from the Mary Evans Picture Library.Mary Evans Picture Library.