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BritainThinks | Private and Confidential

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Leavers and Remainers: True Tribes or Trite Tropes?Cordelia Hay, Research Director, BritainThinks

MRS IMPACT 2017

2BritainThinks | Private and Confidential

Immediately after the Referendum vote, the big story was ‘divided Britain’…

On the grounds of age…


Geography…


And class…



But the data suggests that the ‘real’ story is far more

complicated…

7BritainThinks | Private and Confidential Data from Resolution Foundation analysis


Some leavers are ‘left behind’

• Nothing to lose• Economically and culturally

challenged by immigration

Data from Resolution Foundation analysis


But a great deal aren’t ‘left behind’• Driven by desire for greater sovereignty• Driven by practical ‘cutting red tape’ argument• Culturally challenged by immigration

Data from Resolution Foundation analysis

There are some big values which unite these previously divergent groups


31%

26%

22%

20%

20%

19%

69%

74%

78%

80%

80%

81%

Globalisation

Feminism

Environmentalism

Social liberalism

Immigration

Multiculturalism

Referendum vote among those who see each of the following as a force for ill…

Leave Remain

62%

60%

62%

68%

79%

71%

38%

40%

38%

32%

21%

29%

Globalisation

Feminism

Environmentalism

Social liberalism

Immigration

Multiculturalism

Referendum vote among those who see each of the following as a force for good…

Leave Remain

Data from Lord Ashcroft Polls

And the biggest predictor of all is how you feel about the death penalty…

11BritainThinks | Private and Confidential Data from British Electoral Survey & Eric Kaufmann, LSE


The new labels of ‘Leavers’ and ‘Remainers’ give these

sociodemographically diverse groups a sense of belonging…


“The Trump rally was the most fun I have had in years. Trump would say. ‘What am I going to

build?’ and we would say ‘A wall!’… It was fun to lighten up, to cheer along with everyone else, just like back in high school, when we would cheer that our teams were definitely going to

win, even when they were bad”

“When I heard we had ‘gone Brexit’ I felt like England had won the World Cup!"

This is echoed across the pond…

Much of this is about defining yourself against what you aren’t rather than what you are…


“The ‘big people’, they think that it’s a united country, because they don’t know about our lives… their daily

shop probably cost what our weekly shop costs.”Man, Leave voter, Harlow

“‘Them’… they don’t get our lives, they don’t live in our shoes. The working lower class

voted out, and the upper class voted in because they’ve got the money and they

have more to lose. It affects them more than it affects you. People with money. They’re panicking more that we’re out [of the EU].”

Woman, Leave voter, Harlow

Qualities that Leavers are most likely to associate with Remainers:

‘Out of touch’ ‘Establishment’No. 1 No. 2 No. 3

‘Liberal’

Much of this is about defining yourself against what you aren’t rather than what you are…


Qualities that Remainersare most likely to associate with Leavers:

‘Ignorant’ ‘Stuck in the past’No. 1 No. 2 No. 3

‘Bigoted’

“I love the idea of diversity in Britain and I embrace it, but I feel that these days

there’s quite an undercurrent of xenophobia, and that makes me feel that

Britain is broken. An undercurrent of intolerance.”

Woman, Remain voter, Leamington Spa

“I’m still appalled that we ever had the vote personally, I still can’t believe they gave the public the chance to vote on it. Most people

don’t know enough and don’t pay any attention to the facts. These are the same

people that chose Boaty McBoatface.”Man, Remain voter, Leamington Spa

The more we talk about and reinforce these divides, the more real they become


In the 1960s…

82%of the public identified with a political party

In 2005…

51%of the public identified with a political party

In 2017…

66%felt that their EU Ref vote is more important than their chosen political party

“Deterritorialisation...sometimes...creates exaggerated and intensified senses of criticism or attachment to politics in the home state. Deterritorialisation, whether of Hindus, Sikhs, Palestinians, or Ukranians, is now at the core of a variety of global

fundamentalisms, Islamic and Hindu fundamentalism...” Arjun Appadurai on deterritorialisation (1990)

Data from British Electoral Survey & New Statesman coverage of ‘leaked’ Labour polling

Leavers and Remainers are (often negatively defined) social

constructs that are fast hardening into two ‘tribes’




What next for researchers, brands and campaigners in a world of two (trite) ‘tribes’?

#1 Pay closer attention to values (not value)


Economic competence used to be the best predictor of electoral outcomes (bar ’97):

1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015

Most trusted party on the economy before UK General Elections

Conservative Labour Lib Dem

But as sociodemographically heterogeneous groups coalesce around (the rejection of) common values, from multiculturalism to environmentalism to feminism, we need to be

smarter than this in understanding what drives opinion

#2 Work harder than ever to communicate your message


Either ‘tribe’ might represent some (quick win) opportunities:

“We will defend the Britain we love…(and of course we’ll oppose the expansion of

Heathrow too)”

But they pose some real challenges too as voters and consumers increasingly view the world through their ‘tribal’ lens, often when you least expect it…

Whether you’re trying to talk about workers’ rights…

…restaurant closures… …or, er, sludge…“Who is behind all this? What’s in it for them? Why does this ‘scientist’ want me to know

about this?”

#3 Beware an oversimplification of the story


“We’ve got to stop this madness, cut all that

red tape and regulation and take the reins!”

The Vote Leave campaign used a big, capacious message to appeal to a wide cross-section of voters:

“I don’t recognise my country any more with

all this immigration – we just can’t cope.”

But this means that – even among Leavers – there is a huge divide to bridge, with underlying tensions between clamping down on immigration and making the UK

open for global business

#4 Check yourself


Before elite split -consensus

After elite split –partisan divergence

By talking about these divides, are we all guilty of making them (more) real?

The impact of ‘elite’ cues on public opinion is well documented:

Adapted from Zaller, J; University of California, 1992 – based on 1990 NES

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential

britainthinks.com

Leavers and Remainers: True Tribes or Trite Tropes?Cordelia Hay, Research Director, BritainThinks

MRS IMPACT 2017

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Leavers and Remainers - true tribes or trite tropes ...britainthinks.com/pdfs/Leavers-and-Remainers-true-tribes-or-trite... · On the grounds of age ... Leavers and Remainers: True