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Learning and Research Needs SurveyMacroeconomic and Monetary Policy
Management (MMPM
Meeting of SEACEN Directors of Research and Training
Alotau, Papua New GuineaAugust 19, 2016
1
Brief explanation
• Potential courses included in the evaluation : 16• 16 Respondents• The next slide describes the results pertaining to courses• Slide 4 interprets the results by identifying what appears to be
priority courses and what are potential additional courses• From slide 5 onwards, the results related to the preferred
modules within each course are presented
2
Survey results for each of the 16 potential coursesPlease indicate the priority this course should take in SEACEN’s course offering during 2017
50.0
% 62.5
%
43.8
% 62.5
%
56.3
%
50.0
%
43.8
%
43.8
%
25.0
% 43.8
%
50.0
%
56.3
%
50.0
%
25.0
%
56.3
% 68.8
%
31.3
%
37.5
%
50.0
% 31.3
%
31.3
%
37.5
%
43.8
%
43.8
%
62.5
% 43.8
%
22.2
%
37.5
%
31.3
%
56.3
%
43.8
%
25.0
%18.8
% 6.3%
6.3%
12.5
%
12.5
%
6.3% 12
.5%
12.5
%
6.3%
16.7
% 12.5
%
6.3%
6.3%6.3% 6.3% 11.1% 6.3% 6.3% 12.5%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
(1) F
unda
men
tal o
f reg
ress
ion
anal
ysis
and
fore
cast
ing
(2) I
nter
med
iate
cou
rse
onm
odel
ling
and
fore
cast
ing
tech
niqu
e
(3) A
dvan
ced
topi
cs in
mod
ellin
g an
dfo
reca
stin
g te
chni
ques
(4) T
he a
naly
tics o
f Mac
roec
onom
ican
d M
onet
ary
Polic
y M
anag
emen
t
(1) M
onet
ary
polic
y tr
ansm
issi
on
(2) M
onet
ary
polic
y st
rate
gies
(3) M
onet
ary
Ope
ratio
ns
(1) I
ntro
duct
ory
cour
se o
n ex
trac
ting
info
rmat
ion
from
fina
ncia
l mar
kets
…
(2) A
dvan
ced
Cour
se o
n ex
trac
ting
info
rmat
ion
from
fina
ncia
l mar
kets
(3) F
inan
cial
mar
ket d
evel
opm
ent
(1) B
alan
ce o
f Pay
men
ts a
nd II
PM
easu
rem
ent
(2) E
xter
nal S
ecto
r Ana
lysi
s
(1) F
ound
atio
n of
mac
roec
onom
icdi
agno
stic
s
(1) M
odel
ling
the
inte
ract
ion
ofm
onet
ary-
, fin
anci
al-,
and
real
…
(2) F
inan
cial
cyc
les a
nd c
rises
(Joi
ntw
ith F
SS)
(3) M
acro
-pru
dent
ial p
olic
y (J
oint
with
FSS
)
Econometrics Modelling & Forecasting
MP Management Financial Markets External SectorMacro-economic Diagnostics
Macro-Prudential Linkages
3
Interpretation of the results: = priority courses, = potential additions
Econometrics Modelling & Forecasting
MP Management Financial Markets External SectorMacro-economic Diagnostics
Macro-Prudential Linkages
4
Most important modulesEconometrics Modelling & Forecasting
• Fundamental of regression analysis and forecasting
• Intermediate course on modelling and forecasting technique
• Advanced topics in modelling and forecasting techniques
5
The most important modules:If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?
62.50%
56.25%
50.00%
37.50%
43.75%
37.50%
37.50%
50.00%
37.50%
50.00%
6.25%
25.00%
6.25%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%
Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curvemodels of inflation
Estimating output gaps
Seasonality, interpolation, stationarity andother data issues
Review of OLS methodology
Programming in EViews
Fundamental of regression analysis and forecasting
6
62.50%
75.00%
62.50%
43.75%
56.25%
43.75%
37.50%
25.00%
37.50%
50.00%
37.50%
31.25%
6.25%
6.25%
25.00%
0% 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
GMM Methodology
VAR, BVAR, FAVAR analysis
Modelling and forecasting volatility: ARCH,GARCH and extensions
Network modelling
State-space modelling and applications usingthe Kalman filter
Introduction to programming in Matlab
Intermediate course on modelling and forecasting technique
7
The most important modules:If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?
68.75%
62.50%
43.75%
62.50%
43.75%
31.25%
37.50%
50.00%
31.25%
43.75%
6.25%
6.25%
12.50%
0.0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
DSGE modelling
Dynamic factor analysis
Network modelling
Advanced now-casting methods
Advanced programming in Matlab
Advanced topics in modelling and forecasting techniques
8
The most important modules:
If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?
Most important modulesMP Management
• The analytics of Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Management
• Monetary policy transmission
• Monetary policy strategies - Monetary Operations
9
The most important modules:
If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?
81.25%
75.00%
62.50%
37.50%
68.75%
56.25%
50.00%
50.00%
75.00%
18.75%
25.00%
25.00%
62.50%
31.25%
37.50%
50.00%
37.50%
25.00%
12.50%
6.25%
12.50%
0.0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%
Monetary policy transmission mechanisms
Assessing the stance of monetary policy
Exchange rate measurement
Banking and currency crises: facts and theories
Early warning indicators
Monetary operations and liquidity management
Estimating output gaps
Introduction to VAR analysis
Case study on the implementation of…
The analytics of Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Management
10
The most important modules:
If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?
56.25%
62.50%
56.25%
62.50%
43.75%
31.25%
37.50%
31.25%
6.25%
6.25%
6.25%
PASS-THROUGH OF SHORT-TERM POLICY RATES TO LONGER-TERM MARKET RATES
CHANNELS OF MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY OF AGGREGATE DEMAND
ROLE OF MONETARY AND CREDIT AGGREGATES
Monetary Policy Transmission
11
The most important modules:If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?
50.00%
50.00%
37.50%
37.50%
50.00%
56.25%
12.50%
6.25%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Inflation targeting and other approaches
Assessing the needs for interventions in theforeign exchange market: currency
volatility, currency misalignment, surgesand retrenchment of capital flows
Sterilization policies
Monetary Policy Strategies
12
The most important modules:If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?
43.75%
50.00%
31.25%
50.00%
43.75%
37.50%
62.50%
43.75%
12.50%
12.50%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Liquidity forecasting
Strategies for policy interest ratemanagement
Reserve requirements
Monetary policy and debtmanagement
Monetary Policy Operations
13
Most Important ModulesFinancial Markets
• Introductory course on extracting information from financial markets for monetary policy management
• Advanced Course on extracting information from financial markets
• Financial market development
14
The most important modules:If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?
50.00%
37.50%
50.00%
31.25%
31.25%
50.00%
62.50%
50.00%
68.75%
56.25% 12.50%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%
Basic analysis of financial markets andfinancial instruments
Building yield curves
Interpreting yield curves for monetarypolicy
Gathering and interpreting marketintelligence
Value-at-risk concept andmeasurement
Introductory course on extracting information from financial markets for monetary policy management
15
The most important modules:If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?
43.75%
43.75%
18.75%
31.25%
37.50%
43.75%
62.50%
56.25%
18.75%
12.50%
18.75%
12.50%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%
Dynamic yield curve modelling, Affinemodels
Volatility modelling, both GARCH andstochastic volatility
Density forecasting, basic optionimplied density forecasting
Application of option impliedforecasts (foreign exchange, oil…
Advanced Course on extracting information from financial markets
16
The most important modules:If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?
41.18%
43.75%
37.50%
25.00%
43.75%
41.18%
43.75%
56.25%
62.50%
37.50%
11.76%
12.50%
6.25%
12.50%
18.75%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%
Developing equity and bond markets
Developing foreign exchange market
Regional and global integration of financialmarkets
Sequencing issues
Financial inclusion
Financial market development
17
Most Important ModulesExternal Sector
• Balance of Payments and IIP Measurement
• External Sector Analysis
18
The most important modules:If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?
43.75%
50.00%
43.75%
43.75%
31.25%
31.25%
37.50%
37.50%
37.50%
31.25%
50.00%
43.75%
37.50%
43.75%
43.75%
56.25%
56.25%
43.75%
43.75%
43.75%
50.00%
31.25%
12.50%
12.50%
12.50%
12.50%
12.50%
12.50%
18.75%
18.75%
18.75%
18.75%
18.75%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Integrated International AccountsExternal Sector Statistics
Direct InvestmentPortfolio Investment
Reserve Asset Composition and…International Investment Position
Trade in GoodsTrade in Services
Income and Capital TransfersRemittances
External Debt Statistics
Balance of Payments and IIP Measurement
19
The most important modules:If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?
37.50%
50.00%
56.25%
56.25%
56.25%
56.25%
37.50%
37.50%
37.50%
37.50%
6.25%
12.50%
6.25%
6.25%
6.25%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Exchange Rate Systems
Forecasting the Balance of Payments
Exchange Rate Assessment
External Debt Sustainability
Managing International Capital Flows
External Sector Analysis
20
The Most Important ModulesMacroeconomic Diagnostics
• Foundation of macroeconomic diagnostics
21
The most important modules:If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?
68.75%
50.00%
56.25%
56.25%
62.50%
56.25%
75.00%
62.50%
56.25%
25.00%
43.75%
37.50%
37.50%
31.25%
37.50%
18.75%
31.25%
37.50%
6.25%
6.25%
6.25%
6.25%
6.25%
6.25%
6.25%
6.25%
6.25%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Assessing the Financial Sector
Bank Stress Testing
Domestic Demand
Supply and Productivity
Analysing Fiscal Policy and Assessing…
Analysing Inflation
Analysing Monetary Policy
Assessing the External Position
Assessing Competitiveness and the…
Foundation of macroeconomic diagnostics
22
The Most Important ModulesMacro-Prudential Linkages
• Modelling the interaction of monetary-, financial-, and real sectors in DSGE-type models (Advanced Course)
• Financial cycles and crises (Joint with FSS)
• Macro-prudential policy (Joint with FSS)
23
The most important modules:If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?
37.50%
37.50%
50.00%
50.00%
12.50%
12.50%
0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%
Approaches in modelling thefinancial sector : DSGE Models
Solution methods
Modelling the interaction of monetary-, financial-, and real sectors in DSGE-type models (Advanced Course)
24
The most important modules:If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?
75.00%
56.25%
75.00%
25.00%
43.75%
25.00%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Early warning indicators
Financial cycles: facts, models, andpolicy implications
Macro-prudential policy responses
Financial cycles and crises (Joint with FSS)
25
The most important modules:If this course is given in 2017 what importance should the following topics be included in the course program?
56.25%
75.00%
56.25%
75.00%
43.75%
25.00%
37.50%
25.00%
6.25%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Financial stability mandate of centralbanks/regulators
Monetary policy vs. Macroprudentialpolicies to safeguard financial stability.
Micro- vs. macro-prudential policies
Implementing macro-prudential policies:challenges and potential pitfalls
Macro-prudential policy (Joint with FSS)
26