LEAP, software and bulletins

Peter Hoefsloot, consultant to WFP, FAO and World Bank

LEAP background LEAP: a software platform to calculate

weather based indexes Based on simple idea: Rainfall affects to a

large extend crop yields, which in turn affects livelihoods of the rural population.

LEAP uses as much as possible proven models and datasets.

LEAP is (up to now) Ethiopia-specific. China and other countries coming.

Final goal is trigger for insurance based risk financing.

LEAP is developed by WFP Rome, initiator, insurance based risk

financing WFP/VAM in Addis, overall guidance, data

delivary and feedback from the field Local Consultants Addisu and Girma (crop

and needs data) World Bank finances, provides project

management NMA Ethiopia, provides data and feedback. CSA and MoARD provide data Several government bodies provide feedback

Data providers National Meteorological Agency (rainfall

and et0) University of Reading (rainfall) NOAA (rainfall estimates) LEWS project (Livestock Early Warning

System): Forage Maps MoARD (crop and production data) CSA (crop and needs data) USGS (NDVI) EUMETSAT Germany : Meteosat NDVI

LEAP principle

Design philosophy of LEAP software Proven models : FAO Water Balance Model, Yield

reduction model by Doorenbosch and Kassam etc. Data from more than one source. E.G. Rainfall estimates

from NOAA and rain gauge data from NMA. Combined to provide better estimates

Calculation basis: 10x10 km squares Flexible number of crops (“basket”) Dataset priority Many “in between products” like rainfall estimates,

planting dekads, WRSI, yield reduction, moisture index etc…

All input and output data exportable to Excel (aggregated by Country, Region, Zone, Woreda etc..)

Internet or mail update for new data

What has been done so far First steps to LEAP (then called LPCI) three

years ago Software now contains a lot of functionality;

Still some development in areas of the package.

100 page manual included LEAP website : http://vam.wfp.org/leap Training has been provided in 4 workshops to

over 50 Ethiopians. Users: WFP, Rome & World Bank consultants,

MoARD, NMA, FSCB, DPPA, and others

Continuously running LEAP activities

Providing new data to the LEAP community through internet download and mail: rainfall estimates NMA data integration (ET0 and rainfall) NDVI (vegetation greenness) Improved evapotranspiration data (from USGS

global coverage) Monthly LEAP bulletins in cropping season Technical support through mail

LEAP bulletins

Monthly in Belg and Meher cropping seasons

Maps Highlights

Still to do Emphasis on making LEAP operational Training trainers and software developers Introduce improved crop calendars (from

Addisu and Girma) before 2009 season starts

New boundaries of woredas, zones etc. Introduce improved needs and beneficiary

algorithms into LEAP. Ensure continuous records. Some datasets

have gaps

LEAP is free!

Download from LEAP page http://vam.wfp.org (program + data =

70MB)

If you need data by mail rather than internet update, please send an e-mail to peter.hoefsloot@wxs.nl

Done recently

Download per dataset

Improved encryption of NMA data

Is now converted to

Improved navigation between datasets

User defined color tables

USGS ET0 data (from global model)

(To be improved with NMA and FAO data)

Visual menu

Dataset priority notification

Exporting Yield Reduction to Excel

USGS NDVI (vegetation greenness)

Compared to Meteosat: lower resolution but much longer history

Images for October 10, 2008

Still to do

New Woreda maps in LEAP

Bare

Warder

Boh

Filtu

Danot

Elidar

Afdera

Teltele

Moyale

Dubti

Afder

Arero

Dima

Liben

Quara

Degehabur

Guba

Shinile

Fik

Shilabo

Kebridehar

Dire

East Imi

Ayisha

ElkereMaji

Chereti

Gewane

Dolo Odo

Rayitu

Berahle

Denan

Hamer

Misrak Gashamo

Seweyna

Yabelo

Mena

Babile

Teru

Jore

Dolobay

Gode

Hudet

Dehas

FerferMeda Welabu

Goge

Dalul

Shekosh

Welkait

Adadle Kelafo

Hamero

Mile

Erer

Dillo

Wenbera

Surma

Jawi

Afdem

MeyuBoke

Awra

Dangura

Geladin

Aware

Chifra

Yaso

Bulen

Ginir

Selamgo

Chilga

Lege Hida

Alfa

Kafta Humera

Mustahil

Abobo

Amibara

Metema

Moyale

Decha

Mieso

Miesso

Debeweyin

Dibat

Golo Odo

Erebti

Assosa

Daro Lebu

West Imi

Kebribeyah

Jijiga

Yalo

Gura Damole

Miyo

Etang

Tsegede

Kobo

Tahtay Adiyabo

Ebenat

Seru

Degehamedo

Adaba

Tselemti

Teferi Ber

Odo Shakiso

Dihun

Akobo

Dera

Guradamole

Dembel

Dera

Kuni

Meket

Maokomo

Male

Goba

BatiSimada

Goro Baqaqsa

Sekota

Ewa

Gidami

Gera

Bore

Ofla

Dedo

Takusa

SegegGololcha

Bena Tsemay

Goro

Limu

Kelela

Chora

Guangua

Anfilo

FursiSirba Abay

Robe

Wegera

AfamboTenta

Boset

Jeldu

Abaya

Sayint

Nejo

Limu Seka

Sherkole

Farta

Begi

Ziquala

Tsegede

Sude

Kucha

Gambela ZuriaBure

Adola

Menge

Mecha

Dodola

Habru

Gnangatom

Gurafereda

Debark

Menit Shasha

Merti

Dehana

Kuyu

Didu

Fedis

Gida Kiremu

Megale

Gelana

Gunagado

Kalu

Esira

Dendi Girawa

Gidan

Dabat

Sayo

Sahla

Erob

Telalak

Bilidigilu

Jeju

Guduru

Gololcha

Mengesh

Jama

EndertaAb Ala

Darimu

Aysaita

Tach Armacho

Agarfa

Bugna

Gimbi

Dewe

Janamora

Gulina

Kemba

Amigna

Agalometi

Amuru

Kersa

Mirab Armacho

Mekdela

Melekoza

Bure

Berbere

Dembia

Chora

Mana Sibu

Abergele

Dugda

Zala

Nenesebo

Kamashi

Fentale

Kurmuk

Sinana

Babo

Jikawo

Chena

Sigmo

ShirkaGerbo

Soro

East Belesa

Sodo

Arsi Negele

Ababo

Dugda Dawa

Beyeda

Ada'a

Wegde

Lare

Omo Nada

Alaje

Gasera

Fogera

Sale Nono

Ilu

Sululta

Bambasi

Ahferom

Dulecha

Tiyo

Wadera

Melka Soda

Shalla

Cheliya

Raya Azebo

Asgede Tsimbila

Diga

Horo

Adama

Harena Buluk

Setema

Lay Gayint

Chinaksen

Nono

Bereh

Dasenech (Kuraz)

AmeyaAnchar

Delanta

Hareshen

Sire

Bule Hora

Wadla

Bonke

Hintalo Wejirat

Meta

Tocha

Uraga

Limu Kosa

Getawa

Konso SP Woreda

Bedeno

East Esite

Menit Goldiye

Bero

AkakiMalka Balo

Yeki

Doba

Tulo

Dawe Kachen

Mandura

Ankasha

Sasiga

Masha

Guzamn

Gimbo

Dano

Senan

Kore

Adwa

Kewet

Yayu

Bio Jiganifado

Dangila

Laelay Adiyabo

Munessa

Gawo Kebe

Gechi

Habro

Awabel

Mulo

Werei Leke

Sekela

Sibu Sire

Cheta

Ale Hitosa

Goro

Bahirdar Zuria

Wara Jarso

Ginde Beret

Mesela

Legambo

Haro Limu

Kola Temben

Mereb Leke

Hawzen

Selahad

Selti

OfaLoma Bosa

Ambasel

Kofele

Humbo

JibatTole

Quarit

Wantawo

Gursum

Jarso

Siraro

Berehet

Hulet Ej Enese

Haru

Kercha

Tiro Afeta

Gaz Gibla

Merahbete

Meyumuluka

Ifata

Aroresa

Guna

Dire Dawa

Tena

Were Ilu

South Ari (Bako Gazer)

Degem

Kokosa

Ezha

Dega

Cheha

Dita

Meko

Adda Berga

Aseko

Basona Worena

Aneded

Guto Gida

Hurumu

Bensa

Dabo Hana

Limu

Jida

Alge Sachi

Bure Mudaytu

Kersa

Semen Achefer

Lagahida

Atsbi Wenberta

Simurobi Gele'alo

KonebaMedebay Zana

Denibu Gofa

Midega Tola

Albuko

Gimbichu

Babile

Homosha

Lanfero

Artuma

Mareka

Saesie Tsaedaemba

Ubadebretsehay Girja (Harenfema)

New crop calendars in LEAP before new season

The 2008 season

Belg Rainfall 2008

Meher rainfall 2008

Look closer at 2008 season Belg

Set dataset priority for crops to zonalbelg 2008 WRSI ZonalBelg output Maize_Belg Belg Mask

Meher Set dataset priority for crops to meher 2008 WRSI Meher Long cycle maize Meher MAsk

Please note we used the provisional crop calendars

Rangeland (Somali and Afar)

Cumulative Rainfall 2008 NDVI October dekad 1, 2008

Conclusion 2008 season

Belg below normal in most areas. Many areas no planting opportunities

Meher mid-season Ok. Early retreat of the rains in the east

Rangeland conditions unfavourable in Somali and Afar

Discussion on next steps

Flash models? Rangeland WRSI