League of Women Voters OregonMay 16, 2014

OREGON VALUES and Tom Bowerman, PolicyInterative

Public sentiment is everything.

With public

sentiment nothing can fail. Without it

nothing can succeed. – Abraham

Lincoln

Three surveys; spaced 2 weeks apart; 198 questions• S1: 3,971 respondents (1.6% MOE @ 95% confidence)

• S2: 1,958 respondents (2.2% MOE @ 95% confidence)

• S3: 1,865 respondents (2.3% MOE @ 95% confidence)

• 198 total questions – 1200 cross survey respondents• Random sample, Telephone land+cell & Internet• Employ quality controls for survey error & bias• 5 regions: Eastern, Southern, Central, W.Valley, Metro

Survey Topic Modules Used in 2013 Oregon Project:

• Hopes and fears, likes and dislikes, what’s important – volunteered• Policy priorities• Worldviews & Culture Theory• Education• Healthcare• Social Services• Land use• Jobs & Economy• Environment• Energy• Philanthropy • Demographics

This presentation of findings, observations and conclusions reflects the judgment of this presenter

and not necessarily the views of the sponsoring organizations.

EDUCATION

PUBLIC SERVICE PRIORITIES w/$$ Oregonians rank K-12 education #1

among 20 public services

81% total “important” to support w/ taxes (58% “very important”)

#2: 79% Public Safety like fire & police

#3: 72% Clean air and clean water

#20: 43% Economic development through tax breaks and public subsidies

S1 – Q 6-27

Why to you think Oregon might become a worse place to live? (open response)

•Over population (18%)•Increased taxation (15%)•Poor government leadership (15%)•Lack of jobs, unemployment (11%)

S2 - Q3

Probability

4%

19%

34%

21%

18%

3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Don’t know

Very unlikely

Smwt unlikely

Neutral

Smwt likely

Very likely

Desirability

2%

2%

2%

10%

21%

62%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Don’t know

Stronglyundesirable

Smwtundesirable

Neutral

Smwtundesirable

Stronglydesirable

10 Years: Students will better learn the lessons of citizenship, work, and family

S3.Q37

21% 83%

S3.Q36

Probability

3%

18%

30%

23%

22%

4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Don’t know

Very unlikely

Smwt unlikely

Neutral

Smwt likely

Very likely

2%

2%

1%

6%

23%

65%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Don’t know

Strongly undesirable

Smwt undesirable

Neutral

Smwt desirable

Very desirable

Desirability

10 Years: Schools will substantially improve student knowledge of money management and household finance

27%88%

Probability

3%

23%

33%

20%

15%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Don’tknow

Veryunlikely

Smwtunlikely

Neutral

Smwtlikely

Verylikely

2%

2%

1%

5%

14%

76%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Don’t know

Strongly undesirable

Smwt undesirable

Neutral

Smwt desirable

Very desirable

Desirability

10 Years: Parents will take greater responsibility and be more involved in their children’s learning

S3.Q38

20%90%

Health & Health Care

How desirable or undesirable?

Wellness and healthy living replaces the treatment of illnesses as the primary goal and

focus of the healthcare industry

8%

5%

9%

39%

38%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Don’t know

Strongly undesirable

Somewhat undesirable

Somewhat desirable

Strongly desirable

S2-21

77%

14%

(How desirable or undesirable?)

Doctors’ fees are regulated based on providing preventative care and good health rather than treating

poor health

13%

9%

14%

40%

24%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don’t know

Strongly undesirable

Somewhat undesirable

Somewhat desirable

Strongly desirable

S2-22

64%

23%

(How desirable or undesirable?)

People are held accountable for high risk behaviors like smoking, drugs, and lack of exercise through higher

insurance premiums

6%

8%

14%

34%

38%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don’t know

Strongly undesirable

Somewhat undesirable

Somewhat desirable

Strongly desirable

S2-23

72%

22%

Oregon’s Tax System

Taxes are necessary to pay for the common good

4%

3%

7%

40%

46%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Don’t know

Disagree Strongly

Disagree Somewhat

Agree Somewhat

Agree Strongly

S2-10

86%

10%

There has been some discussion in Oregon recently about the level of public services and the cost to taxpayers. Which of the following

statements is closest to how you feel? (S2-5)

22%

44%

22%

28%

31%

30%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

We don’t spend enough on publicservices and we should increase some

taxes

We spend about the right amount onpublic services and taxes should remain

the same

We spend too much on public servicesand taxes should be reduced

2002 2013

Do you believe a change is needed in Oregon’s tax system at this time?

10%

25%

66%

16%

21%

64%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Don’t know

No

Yes

2002 2013

S2-5

Add picture

Oregonians care about their Environment

Response Category Total Metro W. Valley Central Eastern Southern

Beauty/scenery 21% 21% 22% 17% 15% 24%Weather/climate 19% 18% 22% 15% 12% 19%Friendly residents/people 13% 15% 11% 12% 10% 11%

Outdoors/outdoor activities 11% 11% 8% 19% 11% 11%

Forest/trees 11% 11% 12% 5% 4% 11%Proximity to coast/ocean 10% 12% 13% 4% 2% 6%Nature—general 10% 13% 8% 5% 4% 10%

Great place to live/ neighborliness/friendly town

10% 11% 10% 11% 13% 7%

Proximity to mountains 9% 11% 11% 6% 7% 5%Environment—general 6% 6% 7% 6% 3% 7%

Environmentally friendly/ promotes recycling

6% 7% 7% 4% 2% 3%

All other responses5% or less

6% or less7% or less

7% or less

11% or less

10% or less

None/Nothing 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2%Don’t know 2% 2% 1% 2% 5% 3%

S1-Q2 OpenWhat do you personally value about living in Oregon? (84% refer to environmental traits from ~ 3300 comments)

25

26 S1-Q28 n=2971

8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Statement A Statement B Don’t know

35%

57%

Statement A: Economic Growth should be given priority even if the environment suffers to some extent

Statement B: Protection of the environment should be given priority even at the risk of slowing economic growth

Which statement comes closest to your view?

Color Tone Key:Light: Lean towardsDark: Feel strongly

35%30%

36%

49%

38%

57%62%

53% 50%54%

8% 7% 6% 9% 9%

44% 42%

9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Total Metro W. Valley Central Eastern Southern

Statement A: Economic growth should be given priority even if the environment suffers to some extent

Statement B: Protection of the environment should be given priority evenat the risk of slowing economic growth

Which statement comes closest to your view? (statements always rotate)

S1-Q2727

S1-Q28 n=2971

8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Statement A Statement B Don’t know

38%

53%

Statement A: We should invest more in roads for cars

Statement B: We should invest more in public transit

Which statement comes closest to your view?

Tone Key:Light: Lean towardsDark: Feel strongly

28

29

38% 37% 39%45%

46%38%

53% 55% 53%48%

45%

53%

8% 8% 9%7% 9% 8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Total Metro W. Valley Central Eastern Southern

Statement A: We should invest more in roads for cars

Statement B: We should invest more in public transit

Which statement comes closest to your view? (statements always rotate)

S1-Q27

7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Statement A Statement B Don’t know

72%

21%

Statement A:

Climate change requires us to change our way of life such as driving less or living more simply

Statement B:

If climate change becomes a problem we can deal with it later

Which statement comes closest to your view? S1-Q32

31

72%76%

72%

64% 62%

72%

21% 18% 20%28% 30%

22%

7% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Total Metro W. Valley Central Eastern Southern

Statement A:

Climate change requires us to change our way of life such as driving less or living more simply

Statement B:

If climate change becomes a problem we can deal with it later

Which statement comes closest to your view? (statements always rotate)

S1-Q27

Revisiting Common Assumptions about

Climate Change:

•Is it human caused?•Is it a hoax?•Will it be bad?•Will public policy fix it?

32

7%

10%

41%

53%

20%

30%

24%

9%

9%

7%

13%

9%

8%

63%

42%

8%

5%

9% 6% 15%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Climate change fromhuman causes is a hoax

and not occurring.

Climate change is veryunsettled in scientific

evidence.

Climate change isoccurring and in the long

term the impacts willprobably becatastrophic.

Climate change isoccurring from human

causes like burning fossilfuels.

Strongly Agree Lean toward Agree Undecided Lean toward Disagree Strongly Disagree Don’t knowEugene Random Sample N=300 Source: DHM Research, PI Research, November 2011

HERE ARE SOME STATEMENTS PEOPLE MAKE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE.INDICATE YOUR LEVEL OF AGREEMENT OR DISAGREEMENT FOREACH STATEMENT.

75% 15%

16% 78%

71%

33

5:1

4:1

1 : <2

1:5

Public Support & Confidence inPublic Policy

34

3%

12%

10%

19%

28%

29%

0% 20% 40%

Don’t know

Strongly undesirable

Somewhat undesirable

Neutral

Somewhat desirable

Strongly desirable

(How desirable or undesirable?)

There should be stronger government policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

S3-Q46

57%

22%

3%

16%

10%

20%

29%

21%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Don’t know

Strongly undesirable

Somewhat undesirable

Neutral

Somewhat desirable $

Strongly desirable $$

(How desirable or undesirable; with $$ and $ cost implications)A carbon emission tax established to discourage greenhouse gas

emissions and used to invest in green jobs and technologies

S3-Q48

50%

26%

Economic growth will be more important than addressing climate change

Don’t know

Very unlikely

Somewhat unlikely

Neutral

Somewhat likely

Very likely

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

5%

9%

13%

14%

33%

26%

Probability

Don’t know

Strongly undesirable

Somewhat undesirable

Neutral

Somewhat desirable

Strongly desirable

0% 20% 40%

5%

22%

18%

17%

17%

20%

Desirability

S2-17

59% 37%

19%40%

37

Probability

43%

28%

38%

42%

43%

42%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Southern

Eastern

Central

W. Valley

Metro

Total

Desirability

84%

80%

83%

84%

85%

84%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Southern

Eastern

Central

W. Valley

Metro

Total

Oregonians from diverse backgrounds will find common ground and work together to make progress addressing the

critical issues we face as a stateCombined Very/Somewhat Responses

S3-Q21

Public Confidence:Private Industry,

Science & Technology

(How much Agree – Disagree with:) Science and human ingenuity will solve climate change with little need to change our way of life

4%

6%

13%

16%

25%

36%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Don’t know

Strongly Agree

Somewhat Agree

Neutral

Somewhat Disgree

Strongly Disgree

S3-47

61%

19%

The role of individual behaviors in absence of policy action:

“When the people lead, the leaders will follow.” Gandhi

9%

17%

46%

11%

13%

35%

5%

18%

5%

24%

20%

8%

50%

28%

6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

An individual is incapable of solving

climate change, changing my own

behavior won't make a difference

Climate change impacts depend on a force

greater than humans.

Climatre chage requires us to entirely rethink

our behavior

Strongly Agree Lean toward Agree Undecided Lean toward Disagree Strongly Disagree Don’t know

Eugene Random Sample N=300 Source: DHM Research, PI Research, November 2011

HERE ARE SOME STATEMENTS PEOPLE MAKE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE.INDICATE YOUR LEVEL OF AGREEMENT OR DISAGREEMENT FOR EACH STATEMENT.

81%

48%

20% 74%

20%

14%6 : 1

1 : 4

1 : 2.5

Thinking at the Individual Level

Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology

IPAT

Consumption Behaviors

43

Tons CO2 Emissions per Capita per Year Compared

USA China Est. Sustainable Range

0

5

10

15

20

25

17.5 M Tons/

capita

7.7 M Tons/capita

2 – 5M Tons/capita

Me

tric

To

ns

CO

2 /

Ca

pit

a

Emissions: Tons CO2/capita World Resources Institute (Source:Nationmaster)Sustainable estimate range, multiple sources: PI citations on fileImport – Export Emissions: https://carnegiescience.edu/news/carbon_emissions_outsourced_developing_countries

26

Tons CO2 Emissions per Capita per Year Compared – Consumption Based

USA China Est. Sustainable Range

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 – 5M Tons/capita

Me

tric

To

ns

CO

2 /

Ca

pit

a

4 : 1

Emissions: Tons CO2/capita World Resources Institute (Source:Nationmaster)Sustainable estimate range, multiple sources: PI citations on fileImport – Export Emissions: https://carnegiescience.edu/news/carbon_emissions_outsourced_developing_countries

19.7 t with

imports

5.2 t w.o

exports

45

Public Opinion about

Consumption Behaviors

46

47

Our country would be a better place if we all consumed less.

PI – Oregon Random Dial March 2008 n=400 moe 4.7%

36

51

63

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Strong Agree Agree Disagree Strong Disagree

Political Party Ideology ComparisonCompare - Global Warming : Consume less

PI November 2008 n=400 V4A/V1A (% Combined Agreement of Sector)

Global Warming Concern 'Our Country Better Consume Less'

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

34

64

7680

Republican n=128 Democrat n=228

48

Cultural Ideology Comparison Christian Conservative & EnvironmentalistCompare Global Warming / Consume less

PI November 2008 n=400 V4A/V1A (expressed as % Agreement of Sector)

Global Warming Concern 'Our Country Better Consume Less'

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

45

67

7781

Ch. Conservative n=126 Environmental n=236

49

With roughly two-thirds of consumers saying they care, why is ethical

consumption so minimal and so rarely transformative?

- Dana O’Rourke, book review of Market for Virtue by David Vogle

50

51 Climate Change: What’s going on in our heads?

ATTITUDE A

BEHAVIOR B

X

52

VALUE

ACTION

X

BEHAVIORAL MOTIVATIONS (e.g. constraints to changing behavior)• Habits• Norms (conformity)• Self identity• Ideology (social)• Desires• Physical constraints

53

VALUEDISSONANCE• Anxiety• Grief• Avoidance• Denial

ACTION

X

54

55

55

“It is naive to ask consumers to voluntarily downscale, and give up their desires without offering

them alternative dreams.”Tim Jackson, Sustainable Development Commission, U.K.

One Measure of “hopes and dreams”: Life Satisfaction

All things considered, how satisfied are you with your life nowadays, with 1 being not satisfied at all and 10 being

completely satisfied?

(annual Gallup World Survey and many others, normally on 1-10 scale)

24

Income/Emissions/Life Satisfaction Nation (normalized) & Oregon Compared

USA Oregon

$53,000$44,000

17.5(t)

9.7(t)

7.4 7.5

Income ($US) Emissions (ton/capita) Life Satisfaction Index

Income: Per Capita/Yr. World Bank 2013 estimate (Atlas Method) Emissions: Tons CO2/capita EPA 2013 estimateLife Satisfaction Index Gallup World Survey 2008 (Source: Happiness Foundation) PI 2008

2557

Income/Emissions/Life SatisfactionFour Nations & Oregon Compared

USA Oregon Costa Rica New Zealand Sweden

$52,610

$44447

$8,820

$36900

$5612017.5(t)

9.7 (t)

1.6(t)

7.2(t)

5.5(t)

7.4 7.5

8.5

7.8 7.9

Income ($US) Emissions (ton/capita) Life Satisfaction IndexIncome: Per Capita World Bank 2013estimate (Atlas Method), Oregon: US Bureau of Economic AnalysisEmissions: Tons CO2/capita 2012 World Bank & EPA for OregonLife Satisfaction:: Life Satisfaction Index Gallup World Survey 2008 (Source: Happiness Foundation); Oregon PI Dec 09

58

USA NOW

29

COSTA RICA NOW

True Sustainability (4 Mt/C) does not mean hair shirts and living in caves:

60

Hitting the reset button onNORMATIVE BEHAVIOR

Individual Actions Do Count

60

61

61

10,920

8,548

Census Report (May 8, 2014): Bicycle commuting up 61% since 2000

•In U.S., that’s only .6% of commuters•In Portland, 6.1% commute by bicycle•Other behavior shifts noted:

•Telecommuting•4 day work-weeks•Home occupations•Live – Work Proximity

62

VALUES

New Norms

ACTIONS

X

63

• Yield Critical Mass reinforces

• Policy Support reinforces

• Widespread adoption

64

CHANGING BEHAVIOR:

• TRANSFORMATIONAL THINKINGHolistic & Systemic: as a Way of LifeRethinking “Wealth”Practice World Citizenship

• UNDERSTAND MY OWN CONTRIBUTION“Oregon Carbon Calculator” (20 minute exercise)

• DOWNSHIFTING: Incremental but Steady • PROMOTE POLICY REINFORCEMENTS• CELEBRATE REAL LEADERSHIP

29

Further Information:

• PolicyInteractive:– policyinteractive.org

• Oregon Values Project:– oregonvaluesproject.org

65

66

Appendices:

1.Message Frame Testing

67

Eugene Message Frame StudyResults shown in order: Aggregated EWEB + City Employee (in bold font); EWEB

Residential Customer; City Employee. 5 Votes

summarized

Future Generations: We all have a responsibility to pass this place on to the next generation in at least as good a condition as we inherited it ourselves. Both our leaders and we our selves must do more to protect this planet for future generations.

872527345

Live by Example: Each and every one of us is a teacher by how we act. We need to set a good example for each other and our children by considerate and thoughtful behavior as it applies to care of the earth and equitable sharing of resources.

630401229

Oregon Pride: Oregon is a special place which has attracted people who care for the land and natural resources. We have long been a leader in green practices and we can leverage this reputation to set an example for other states. We need to continue to build on our leadership through smart environmental behavior.

412265147

Waste Not: Waste is a bad thing, and it is a by-product of thoughtless consumption. It is important to reduce the amount of waste we create by shifting behaviors to a more sustainable lifestyle and living more simply.

735480255

Do the Right Thing: I feel better about myself when I know I’m doing the right thing. Recycling, being careful to reuse things, and making purchases with thoughtfulness about consequences gives a sense of self-satisfaction.

616352264

69

Synthesized Message Frame CompetitionPI Feb 2012 N=692 - 5 votes per person, distribute any way, not required to use all votes

Oregon Pride - environmental leadership

Do the Right Thing - recyle, reuse, reduce

Live by Example - thoughtful behav-ior

Waste Not - sustainable lifestyle

Care for Future Generations - pro-tect the planet

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

412

616

630

735

872