Leadership Summit (August 2015)

8/20/2019 Leadership Summit (August 2015)

1/30

Economic and Real Estate

OutlookBy Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.

Chief Economist, National ssociation of REL!OR"#

Presentation at NR Leadershi$ "ummit

Chica%o, &L

u%ust '(, )('*


2/30

+os- million lost / ') million %ained0

')(,(((

')*,(((

'1(,(((

'1*,(((

'2(,(((

'2*,(((In thousands


3/30

!o$ and Bottom "tates for +os

The Best

% Gain in12 months

3tah 2.(4

5lorida 1.4

Ore%on 1.24

6ashin%ton

1.24

California 1.)4

7eor%ia 1.)4

NorthDakota

1.)4

Ne8ada 1.(4

TheWorst % Gain in12 months

6est:ir%inia

;(.4

laska (.>4


4/30

!oo ?ot-@os in thousands0

• "eattle

A)((,((( from)('(

• Den8er

A)*(,((( from)('(

')((')*('1(('1*('2(('2*('*(('**('>((

'>*(

'((('(*(''((''*(')((')*('1(('1*('2((

'2*(


5/30

Lake Erie Resur%ence


6/30

Bualo +os New ?i%hs-A1(,((( net new @os from )('(0

*((

*'(

*)(

*1(

*2(

**(

*>(

*


7/30

Detroit +os-A1((,((( net new @os from )('(0

'*((

'>((

'


8/30

=onthly Pendin% "ales &nde-"easonally d@usted0

)('' ; +an)('' ; 5e)('' ; =ar)('' ; $r)('' ; =ay)('' ; +une)('' ; +uly)('' ; u%)('' ; "e$)('' ; Oct)('' ; No8)('' ; Dec)(') ; +an)(') ; 5e)('); =ar)(');$r)(') ; =ay)(') ; +une)(') ; +ul)(') ; u%)(') ; "e$)(') ; Oct)(') ; No8)(') ; Dec)('1 ; +an)('1 ; 5e)('1 ; =ar)('1 ; $r)('1 ; =ay)('1 ; +un)('1 ; +ul)('1 ; u%)('1 ; "e$)('1 ; Oct)('1 ; No8)('1 ; Dec)('2 ; +an)('2 ; 5e)('2 ; =ar)('2 ; $r)('2 ; =ay)('2 ; +un)('2 ; +ul)('2 ; u%)('2 ; "e$)('2 ; Oct)('2 ; No8)('2 ; Dec)('* ; +an)('* ; 5e)('* ; =ar)('* ; $r)('* ; =ay)('* ; +un


9/30

"ales Chan%e y Price Points-4 chan%e from one year a%o0

;*

(

*

'(

'*

)(

)*

1(


10/30

Distressed "ales

(

'(

)(

1(2(

*(

>(

5oreclosure "hort;"ale


11/30

=edian ?ome Price

'((,(((

')(,(((

'2(,((('>(,(((

'(,(((

)((,(((

))(,(((

)2(,(((

)>(,(((


12/30

Buyer !raFc Conditions


13/30

!rade;3$ O$$ortunities

from ?ousin% EGuity

(

*(((

'((((

'*(((

)((((

)*(((

Real Estate :alue =ort%a%e Det

$ billion


14/30

nnual ?ome "ales

(

'((((((

)((((((

1((((((

2((((((

*((((((

>((((((


15/30

New Price BuleH

2005-2006 Bubble

• m new home sales

• !i%ht Credit and all;cash

• '.' m housin% starts


16/30

?ome Price 5orecast for )('> /14 to *4

First Scenario

• New construction slowly

reco8er / housin% shorta%e

• Prices initially rise fast

• Chokes demand and sales fall

• ?ome $rice %rows 14 to *4

• Not Desirale

Second Scenario

• New construction roustly

reco8er / in8entory relief

• ?ome $rice %rows 14 to *4

• Demand e$ands and sales rise

• &ncrease moility and oost @os

• Desirale


17/30

?ousin% "tarts

()((2((>((

MultifamilThousand units

(*((

'((('*((

)(((

Sin!le-famil


18/30

=onetary Policy and5orecast


19/30

5ed Policy and =ort%a%eRate

(

'

)

1

2

*>

<

9

=ort%a%e Rate 5ed 5unds Rate


20/30

6hat Determines Bond YieldsH

• 5ederal Reser8eIs short;term ratechan%es

• &nJation and erosion of $urchasin% $ower

• 5orei%n ca$ital Jow and demand fordollar

• "a8in%s rate

• 3.". ud%et deKcit• Printin% of money

• /


21/30

5ederal DeKcit ; "hrinkin%- million, ') month total0

;'>(((((

;'2(((((

;')(((((

;'((((((

;(((((

;>(((((

;2(((((

;)(((((

(

)(((((

2(((((


22/30

5ederal Det / Cumulati8e- millionM det held y $ulic ecludin% intra;%o8ernmental holdin%s0

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2,(((,(((

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'),(((,(((

'2,(((,(((


23/30

Louis :in% of 5rance

from '


24/30

U.S. Dollar

Reversing the Decline … Stronger and Stronger

(

9(

'((

''(')(

'1(

'2(

"ollar Stren!th #nde$ Trade Wei!hted


25/30

6ashin%ton Risks

• !R&DH

• =ort%a%e 8ailailityH

• !a Preference Chan%esH

"tate and Local Risks

• 5oreclosure rulesH

• Eminent DomainH

• !a Preference Chan%esH


26/30

!aylor "wift !aQ in Rhode&sland


27/30

Commercial Real Estate


28/30

&ommercial #n'estment Sales of (ar!e )ro*erties+)ro*erties 'alued at ,25 million and o'er.

'1(

)')

1>)

2)1

*


29/30

'(1' Like;ind Echan%es)1 of =emers 3sed

2(4

'2424*4

1


30/30

'(1' and Economic &m$act

Less than '(4

'(4 to )24

)*4 to 294

*(4 to '((4

7reater than '((4

Not a$$lica,le

'>4

**4

'>4

*4

'4

Documents

Leadership Summit (August 2015)