Leadership Problem Solving Creates More Problems than it Solves. The Ambiguity Advantage David Wilkinson Centre i RAF Leadership Conference 2007 Centre

Leadership Problem Solving Creates More

Problems than it Solves. The Ambiguity Advantage

David WilkinsonCentre i

RAF Leadership Conference

2007 Centre iCentre iinspire inspire innovate innovate influence influence 1

The Book


Ambiguous Decisions

• A look at problem solving success in ambiguous situations

• 161 Leaders in 42 organisations

• 2001 – 2007


Ambiguity


Where the problem or

solution or path is not known

Where the problem or

solution or path is not known

Leader’s Problem Solving


42 organisations between 2001 – 2007 Wilkinson 2007

Leaders Views

• 96.2% (155 of 161) of leaders said that their problem solving was successful.

• Any failures they said, came from somewhere or someone else.


Every one else’s view

• 81% of leader problem solving failed / got ditched…or result in unintended consequences so severe that they were worse or as worse as the original problem.


8 out of 10 cats

• 8 out of 10 leadership decisions / solutions didn’t resolve the issue*

• Less than 4% of leaders considered that their thinking and actions contributed to the failure situation


Why?


Two Faced


Processing


The Ambiguity Pretzel

2007 Centre iinspire innovate influence 12

Certainty / minimum ambiguity

Chaos

Increasing ambiguity / risk & uncertainty

Risk

Increasing certainty / clarity / knowledge & order

Uncertainty & VaguenessVagueness

Breakdown of relationship > Cause & Effect

Close coupledC & E

Loose coupled C & E

Total Ambiguity Paradox

The Paradox of Certainty

Control models

Emergent / complexity models

Abmgiiuty and our brinas

I tihnk taht you shulod be albe raed tihs wihuott too mcuh trubole. It is vrey stnarge taht wehn you trun aournd the cneter letetrs of wrods you can stlil raed tehm eailsy.

Amgiibuty gtes caclenled out by the biran wehn it is clsoe to a reiltay we unredtsnad. Tihs can be a prbolem as wlel as a uesufl phnemonena.

Waht haepnps is taht our biran makes, waht is knwon as ‘brdignig inrefneecs’,

It lokos for paetrtns and tehn tires to mkae sesne of waht it fidns bsaed on waht we alerady konw. Hoewveer it can go worgng! Esepiclaly in totlaly new siuttaoins. The biran wlil try to imopse a ptaetrn whcih is eihter sipmly oudttaed or jsut plian wrnog.


Rty siht….

I kihtn hatt shti udlosh eb a elltit erdarh ot edra sa I avhe exdim het teterls pu orme hhciw sakem ti a tol daherr ot erda. Hawt hist emns si hatt mose eoppel illw eigv pu ude ot eht velle fo itimagyub ti treacse ofr emth. Dod s’itn ti ?


Psychological Inertia

Aka paradigm paralysis


Paradigm Paralysis

The fog of war lessons learnt by Robert S. McNamara


Modes of Leadership


Technical Leadership (Mode 1)

• Good at– Following ‘characterised’

procedures– Making incremental

changes– Postponing reward– Staying safe– Standardising

procedures– Leading from the front– Detail

• Struggles with– Risk & Ambiguity– Innovation– Diversity– Non standard thinking– Empathy and emotional

intelligence– Co-operation and

collaboration– Strategic concepts (big

picture)


Mode 1 responses to Ambiguity

1. There is only one certainty1. Be certain about your certainty

2. Do something else1. Displacement behaviour2. Flight behaviour

3. If in doubt fool yourself1. Denial2. Create a new certainty


Cooperative Leadership (Mode 2)

• Good at– Minimising risks– Using others as

resources– Team focus– Solving cooperative

problems– Democracy– Listening– Task Focus– Diversity

• Struggles with– Taking risks– Conflict– Weighing up the facts– Competing values and

ideas– High innovation– Lack of change– Too much change


Mode 2 responses to ambiguity

• Heightened awareness of negative emotional reactions to ambiguity

• Moves to reduce discomfort• Conflict = discomfort• Tries to reduce ambiguity and conflict by– Simplification– Appeals to cohesion and loyalty (the team)– Cooperative strategies– Behavioural frameworks etc. that promote compliance

• Creation of rules / policy – reduction of uncertainty


Collaborative Leadership (Mode 3)

• Good at– Aligning values– Equality– Meetings– Relationships– Feel good– Empathy– Emotional Intelligence– Consensus– Exploring risk– Greater levels of ambiguity

• Struggles with– Leadership– Lack of productivity– Difficult people

• Individualists

– Breaking out of COWDUNG– Lack of change– Non conventional thinking

at first


Mode 3 reactions to ambiguity

• Recognise the ambiguity• Adapt to the situation• Interest in change (of others)• Will seek recourse to the consensus of the

group/team• Will try to ‘solve’ ambiguity to restore the

natural order of things


Generative Leadership (Mode 4)

• Good at– Working with Ambiguity– Complexity– Finding opportunity– Agility and change– Speed– Innovation– Focus– Using experts– Defining problems– Emotional Resilience– Learning and unlearning –

shifting paradigm

• Struggles with– Working with certainty– Lack of change & stability– People who need time

• To understand• Change• Produce things

– Procedures, policy and rules

– Incremental change– Lack of speed and agility– ‘Small talk’


Mode 4 reactions to ambiguity

• Very happy with the existence of ambiguity – worries if it’s not present

• Looks for emergent properties and opportunities inherent in situation

• Spends lots of time on problem definition and trying to discover reality

• Uses diversity of thinking and approaches to gain the advantage


A problem of definition

The elevators are too slow


Frame 1

Technical - Make it faster


Frame 2

Co-operate – what solutions?

Best – pulley gearing


Frame 3

Collaboration –many Project teams many

inventions


Frame 4

• Most people spend 90% of effort working on solution

• Generative spend 20% of effort working on solution.

• 80% on the problem definition


Albert Einstein

“It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with

problems longer”

“I spend most of my time just trying to find out what the problem

is.”


Problem definition


They think the lift is too slow

1. Install mirrors - $38

2. Level progress indication

3. Bigger compartments


Frames

1. Thinking frame = how we see

2. How we see = what we see

3. What we see = the problems we perceive

4. The problems we perceive = the problem we solve


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David WilkinsonCentre I


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Leadership Problem Solving Creates More Problems than it Solves. The Ambiguity Advantage David Wilkinson Centre i RAF Leadership Conference 2007 Centre