Lead Market Analysis & Outlook Hu Yongda [email protected] Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd. Sep 2009

Lead Market Analysis & Outlook

Hu Yongda

[email protected]

Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd.

Sep 2009

★ Global Lead Market Overview

★ Chinese Lead Market Specific Character

★ Conclusion & Outlook

Global Lead Market Overview

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J anuary- May 2008 J anuary- May 2009 Chn y- o- y

Lead-in-concentrate: 1,468 kt in Jan-May, down by 5.0% y-o-y.

Down rates of USA, Peru, Australia and China are 7.7%, 14.6%, 23.2% and 0.9% respectively.


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J anuary- May 2008 J anuary- May 2009 Chn y- o- y

Refined lead : 3,478 kt in Jan-May, up by 0.2% y-o-y.

Reason: production in China, South Korea, Kazakhstan and some other Asian countries grew rapidly.

Growth rates of China, South Korea and Kazakhstan are 14.6%, 6.2% and 4.9% respectively.


Consumption: Different from production. 3,452kt in Jan-May, down by 0.3% y-o-y. Western world consumption is 1886kt, down by 13.9% y-o-y.

From Jan-May, the oversupply of world total(3 monthly average ) are 12.5kt, 17.8kt, 14.1kt, 2.0kt and -4.3kt. The oversupply of western world are -0.9kt, 7.5kt, 11.6kt, 11.6kt and 8.2kt.

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Wor l d Total Pro. (3 Monthl y Average) Western Wor l d Pro. (3 Monthl y Average)

Wor l d Total Cons. (3 Monthl y Average) Western Wor l d Cons. (3 Monthl y Average)

Chinese Lead Market Specific Character

China become more important in the world lead industry

China become the biggest country in lead supply and consumption, the proportion between China and World are all above 35% in 2008. And the proportion will be bigger in the future. In Jan-May 2009, the proportion between China lead consumption and world’s was above 40%. The proportion of consumption was also near to 39%.

In a word, China will become more and more import in lead industry.

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Worl d Total Pro. (3 Monthl y Average) Chi na/ Wor l d

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Refining capacity increase too fast and utilization rate decrease

The refining capacity was 1360kt with 88% utilization rate in 2001, but arrived at 4076kt with 75% utilization rate in 2008. The annual average growth rate is near to 17%.

Antaike learns that seven smelting projects (about 600kt) will be completed in 2009. So the refining capacity may arrive at 4676kt.but utilization rate may decrease to 70%.

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Capaci ty Output Ut i l i zat i on of Capaci ty


Source: Antaike

Chinese additional lead refining capacity for 2009, ktpy

Location Method Additional

capacityPresent situation Commission

date

Luoyang Yongning Gold & Lead Smelting Co., Ltd.

Luoyang, Henan Oxygen bottom blowing - reduction

80Commissioned Jun. 2009

Qinghai Xiyu Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd.

Golmud, Qinghai Oxygen bottom blowing - reduction

100Under construction

At the end of 2009

Henan Zhicheng Gold & Lead Co., Ltd.

LIngbao, Henan Oxygen bottom blowing - reduction

100Under construction Dec. 2009

Yuguang Gold & Lead Co., Ltd.Jiyuan, Henan Oxygen bottom blowing

- liquid slag direct reduction


At the end of 2009

Chifeng Baiyinour Lead and Zinc Mine

Chifeng, Inner Mongolia

Oxygen bottom blowing - reduction

80Under construction 2009

Ximeng Shuangyuan Smelting Co., Ltd.

Ximeng, Inner Mongolia

Oxygen bottom blowing - reduction

60Under construction 2009

Chenzhou Jingui Nonferrous metals Group Co., Ltd.

Chenzhou, Hunan Oxygen bottom blowing - reduction


At the end of 2009

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Grow

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Chinese refined lead capacity by province in 2005-2009, ktpy

Chinese refined lead capacity annual average growth rate by province in 2005-2009



Industrial structure will become better in China

Following refining capacity growing, small scale enterprises with outofdata refining technology and polluting environment will be emerged or closed. Large size enterprises will become bigger and bigger.


Secondary lead stably grow

Since 2000, Chinese secondary lead production has grown stably. Antaike learns that the output of secondary lead will arrive at 987kt,up by 14% y-o-y, and the annual average growth rate will be above 18% in 2000-2009.

The proportion of secondary lead also has grew stably. Antaike learns that the proportion of secondary lead output/lead output will be near to 31% in 2009, against 28% in 2008.

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Output of secondary l ead Chn y- o- y

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Output of l ead Output of secondary l ead Secondary l ead/ l ead


Raw material supply tight

The growth rate of Chinese lead-in-concentrate is much lower than refining capacity growth, so raw material supply become tighter and tighter. It makes China more and more rely on imported lead concentrate.

China produced 527kt lead-in-concentrate in Jan-Jun 2009, only up by 0.13% y-o-y.

Monthly Chinese lead-in-concentrate output and growth rate in Jan. 2007-Jun 2009

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Pb conc. Chn y- o- y


Secondary lead & concentrate import support lead growth in H1 2009

China produced 1658.2kt refined in Jan-Jun, up by 14.1% y-o-y, similar to the growth rate in Jan-May, contrasting to the growth rate of lead-in-concentrate(0.13%).

Reasons: Firstly, Secondary lead increased rapidly; Secondly, lead concentrate import.

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Refi ned l ead Chn y- o- y

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Refi ned l ead i n Anhui Chn y- o- y


Being a major secondary lead production province, Anhui’s lead output change can represent the Chinese secondary lead production situation.

The statistics released by CNIA show that Anhui yielded 232kt of lead in Jan-Jun, up by 42.6%, which implies a big growth of secondary lead production.




The statistics from China Customs show 718kt of lead-in-concentrate import in Jan-Jun, up by 25.2% y-o-y, against 12.2% in Jan-May.

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Pb conc. I mt Chn y- o- y

Chinese lead conc. import by monthly and growth rate in Jan. 2007-Jun 2009（ physical weight）


Lead aci dbat tery78. 2%

Sol der2. 1%

Cabl eSheathi ng

0. 4%Shot0. 2%

Rol l ed andExt rudedproducts

2. 9%

Chemi cal13. 8%

Others2. 4%

Automobile support lead consumption

About 79% lead is used in lead acid battery now in China. The proportion will increase in the future.


Automobi l e28. 3%

El ect r i cbi cycl e25. 9%

Motorcycl e5. 2%

Export12. 5%

Others28. 1%


Above 50% lead acid battery is used in automobile and electric bicycle. The proportion may grow stably in the future, but mainly from automobile growth.

Each thousands persons only have 29 units cars in 2008. Maybe it will reach 90 units in 2020, with 9.9% annual average growth. But growth rate of electric bicycle will below 5%. Antaike learns that the proportion of lead used in automobile will reach 30% in 2015.



The monthly production of automobile has exceeded one million units since March 2009, keeping more than 10% y-o-y growth, according to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. The output and sale of automobile were 7100.9 thousand units and 7184.4 thousand units respectively in Jan-Jul, up by 20.23% and 23.38% respectively y-o-y.

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Output Chn y- o- y

Chinese automobile output in Jan 2008-Jul 2009



Chinese electric bicycle output didn’t increase as automobile. Only increased by 3.8% y-o-y to approximate 11.87 million units in Jan-May 2009.

The situation of motorcycle was worse than electric bicycle. The output was 11699kt, down 13.3% y-o-y. And since Nov 2008, the rate has been below 0%. Antaike learns that the mototcycle will be weak in the future.

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China will become the main lead import country

The statistics from China Customs show 127.6kt of refined lead import in Jan-Jun 2009, up by 2210% y-o-y. Meanwhile, the refined lead export dropped by 73.5% y-o-y to 8.3kt.

The exports of lead alloys and semis are 1.0kt and 7.13kt respectively in Jan-Jun, down by 86.2% and 82.5% y-o-y. Meanwhile, the imports of lead alloys and semis are 22.05kt and 3.19kt respectively in Jan-Jun, up by 100.4% and 191%.

Chinese net export of refined lead, lead semis and alloys

Reasons:

Firstly, Chinese lead price is much higher than overseas in Jan-Apr;

Secondly, Chinese consumption is better than overseas;

Thirdly, the market participants anticipate that Chinese lead price will increase, so many traders have stocked up refined lead.


China will become the main lead import country

We think China will import more lead concentrate to meet with its capacity in the future. Meanwhile, the consumption also will increase too rapidly, maybe a small part of refined lead export to overseas when LME lead price is more than Chinese price. In a word, China will become the main lead import country when taking lead concentrate into account in the future especially within five years.


Conclusion & Outlook

China will become more and more important in the world lead industry.

The lead refined capacity will continue increase rapidly in China.

Chinese lead consumption more and more depend on automobile, and consumption growth rate may be the same as output.

China will become lead import country when taking concentrate into account.

The proportion between Chinese lead price and LME lead price will become lower.

Conclusion & Outlook

Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Lead output 1,930 2,390 2,710 2,788 3,053 3,220

Net exports 420 400 500 210 120 -44

Apparent consumption 1,510 1,990 2,210 2,578 2,933 3,264

Real consumption 1,670 1,990 2,290 2,550 2,750 3,070

Market Balance -140 -20 -80 28 183 194

Average spot price (yuan/tonne) 8,982 9,367 12,111 19,468 17,160 12,400

Chinese lead market balance in 2004-2009, kt

Source: Antaike

Documents

Lead Market Analysis & Outlook Hu Yongda [email protected] Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd. Sep 2009