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le010z185i le100z200i from -,K - : from + from -,K - : from + qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh Different components

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Page 1: le010z185i le100z200i from  -,K - : from  + from  -,K - : from  + qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh Different components
Page 2: le010z185i le100z200i from  -,K - : from  + from  -,K - : from  + qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh Different components
Page 3: le010z185i le100z200i from  -,K - : from  + from  -,K - : from  + qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh Different components

le010z185i le010z185i

le100z200i le100z200i

from -,K-: from +

from -,K-: from +

qeresdiscoh

qeresdiscoh

qeresdiscoh

qeresdiscoh

Different components to antineutrino spectrum

Page 4: le010z185i le100z200i from  -,K - : from  + from  -,K - : from  + qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh Different components

le010z185i

All qeresdiscoh

qeresdiscoh

From le010z185i MC to determine fraction of antineutrino spectrum corresponding to each component

component/all

Use these ratios to determine the components for the le100z200i configuration as well.

Page 5: le010z185i le100z200i from  -,K - : from  + from  -,K - : from  + qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh Different components

from -,K- from -,K-

from + from +

pME

pME LE

LE

MCMC with syst

MCMC with syst

MCMC with syst

MCMC with syst

Example: qel and res components increased by 30%, pME-POT=1e19

Page 6: le010z185i le100z200i from  -,K - : from  + from  -,K - : from  + qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh Different components

Example: qel and res components increased by 30%, pME-POT=1e19

Fluctuate the pME histograms to create fake data set (which now includes these systematics) and fit in usual way:

Page 7: le010z185i le100z200i from  -,K - : from  + from  -,K - : from  + qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh Different components

But original + spectra got modified by systematics, so parLE and parME are not the right parameters to look at to find out systematic error.

Consider sucLE and sucME parameters, defined by:

Evidently, when no systematics are added then parLE=sucLE and parME=sucME

sucLE =#antineutrinos from + predicted by fit, LE

#antineutrinos from + in fake data, LE

sucME =#antineutrinos from + predicted by fit, pME

#antineutrinos from + in fake data, pME

For qel and res both increased by 30%, with 1e19

POT of pME-POT

~6.5% systematic error in our

antineutrinos from + in LE

measurement

Page 8: le010z185i le100z200i from  -,K - : from  + from  -,K - : from  + qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh Different components

qel and res components increased by 30%, different pME-POT

2.5e19 POT 5e19 POT

7.5e19 POT 1e20 POT

Page 9: le010z185i le100z200i from  -,K - : from  + from  -,K - : from  + qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh Different components

qel and res components decreased by 30%, pME-POT = 1e19

from -,K- from -,K-

from + from +

pME

pME LE

LE

MCMC with syst

Page 10: le010z185i le100z200i from  -,K - : from  + from  -,K - : from  + qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh qe res dis coh Different components

qel and res components decreased by 30%, different pME-POT

2.5e19 POT 5e19 POT

7.5e19 POT 1e20 POT