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LΞD2LightDecember 2005

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Contents

• Introduction• HB-LED general data

– Global HB-LED market analysis– Nitride-based LEDs market analysis– White/blue GaN LED Performance and

price roadmap– 2” substrates volumes forecasts for GaN-

based LEDs 2001-2007– Cree strategy and evolution– Companies facts– Chips scribing & dicing– Estimation of different GaN-LED cost

breakdown

• General illumination market– Worldwide estimation of generated

lumens– Forecast for LEDs in general illumination

2007-2020– Total 2” equivalent wafers volume for GaN

HB-LEDs– Conclusions on HB-LED business for

illumination

• Car Lighting Market– Synthesis

• Front lighting LEDs-based• Rear lighting LEDs-based• Interior lighting LEDs-based

– Technologies• LEDs and HBLEDs

– Price, performances and SWOT analysis– Applications

• External lighting– Front lighting– Adaptive Front lighting System (AFS)– Rear Lighting

• Interior lighting– Market

• Sales forecasts for lighting 2003 – 2009 (front, rear and interior lighting)

– Conclusions• Annexes

– GaN material• 2” ASP comparison• Bulk / free-standing GaN wafers

specifications comparison• GaN Epiwafer manufacturers

comparison– GaN R&D research programs and

founding

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Introduction

• Blue/White HB-LEDs are now at a full production level and are targeting markets in the field of automotive, IT, and general lightning and illumination.

• Over the last 5 years, the LEDs market has evolved exhibiting growth rate as high as 58% a year.

• The most important potential market will be the general lightning, for which the replacement of conventional lamps with white LEDs would bring energy benefits of up to $100B by 2025, saving up to 120 Giga-Watts of electricity annually in the US alone.

• The nitride-based HB-LEDs market is forecasted to reach $3B in 2006.

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HB-LED: General Data

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HB-LED market breakdownNitride-based LEDs represented 68%

HBLED 2002 market breakdown in B$

0.1

0.5

1.2

AlGaInP (Yellow-red)

AlGaAs (Red)

InGaN (Blue, green, white)

68 %

28 %

4 %

2002 total market: 1.8 B$GaN sector was 51% CAGR over the last 4 years

Sources: Strategies Unlimited

HB-LEDs Status

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Nitride-based LED market segmentation

Conventional nitride LED High Brightness LED Ultra-high brightness white

LED

Specifications

Applicative markets

ASP

• 350x350 µm die• 30 mA, 3.5 V supply• < 200 mW power• External QE~20%• 20 lm/W• 1 to 3 lm generated• Typical epoxy housing

• Up to 2x2 mm² die• 350 mA, 3.5 V supply• Up to 1 Watt power• External QE > 30%• > 30 lm/W• 5 to 30 lm generated• Specific packaging

• Up to 5x5 mm² die• > 50A/cm²• up to 5 watt power • External QE > 30%• > 50 lm/W• > 100 lm generated• CRI ~ 80• Specific packaging

• Mobile-phones keypad lightning• Mobile-phones backlighting• Signs

• Screens backlighting• Automotive dashboard backlighting• Automotive: front headlamps• Large displays

• Illumination

0.10 $ / part 0.8 to 2$ / part • will be marketed from 2007• 30$/klm

HB-LEDs Status

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Intellectual property relationships between LED companies

RohmRohm

NichiaNichia

CreeCree

LumiledsLumileds Toyoda GoseiToyoda Gosei

ToshibaToshibaCitizen ElectronicsCitizen Electronics

OsramOsramLaser collaborationPatent lic

enseManufacturing license

for white LEDs

Cross-license for

white LEDsCross-license

Cross-license

Manufacturing license

for white LEDs

Patent agreement

White LED license

White LEDcollaboration

Source: Compound Semiconductors Magazine

HB-LEDs Status

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Nichia facts

• More than 150 mono-wafer MOCVD epi-reactor home-made for GaN-based LEDs production

• JV with Sony to co-develop 405 nm blue-violet laser diodes for Blu-ray disk.

• Nichia is testing bulk GaN substrates from Sumitomo in order to focus on 100 mW LD for data writing on DVD

• Nichia is selling their laser diodes for up to $911 to the various next generation DVD makers (Sources: Nikkei Net, 10/2004)

• LD production yield in the range of 10% to 20%• Blue spectrum LD production will start spring 2004 with

a capacity of 400,000 to 600,000 units at the end of 2004 and up to 3 million chips / year by 2005.

HB-LEDs Status

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Trends in High Power LEDs• Lumileds approach:

– Reflecting contacts and flip-chip mounting

• Osram: Substrate removal by laser lift-off (LLO)– Thin film GaN: InGaN on sapphire. Extraction

efficient ~ 75%. Quantum efficiency (QE)~38%

• Nichia approach: Backside surface texturing– Facts: Transmittance of a conventional Ni-Au p-

contact electrode is only 40%– Solution: Patterned sapphire substrate + meshed

electrodes:

HB-LEDs Status

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General illumination market

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worldwide estimation of generated lumens (lm.hr/year) and LED

• According to OIDA, US consumption was in the range of 26,500 Tlm.hr in 2000.

• We consider (DoE source 2003) that worldwide consumption is in the range of US x 4 = 106,000 Tlm.hr/year in 2000

• Growth rate is in the range of 1.2 %/year• 2 cases for LED market penetration:

– Base case: Low level of performances, lower price, low market penetration rate -> more LEDs in a single lamp

– Technology breakthrough case: High performances LEDs, controlled price, high market penetration rate -> less LEDs in a single lamp

Illumination market

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2" (Eq.) wafers volume for GaN-basedLED production in million units

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Illumination (case 1)Illumination (case 2)Opto (apart illumination)

Wafers needs for GaN-based LEDs(2” equivalent wafers, million units)

Higher growth rate due to automotive and LCD TV market penetration

Market saturation: all potential applications

targeted

Case 2: “Techno breakthrough”“single-LED lamp”

Case 1: “base-case”“multiple-LEDs lamp”

Illumination market

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Car Lighting market

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Front lighting: synthesis

• HBLEDs have large market opportunities for front lighting– As the HBLEDs performance will increase, less chips will be necessary

(less than 15 should be necessary in 2009 for all functions) – The cost objective for auto (10$/klm) will be reached in 2010 for a wide

diffusion of HBLEDs in front lighting– However, HBLEDs should be implemented before this date (around

2007) on high-end cars– In 2009, HBLED market should reach $90M

• But today, HID (High Intensity Discharge or Xenon) have been available for over 12 years, but halogen lights are still fitted to around 90% of all sold new cars.

• Design and safety are strong market drivers for LEDs

• European regulation needs to be updated for LEDs integration

Car Lighting - synthesis

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Lighting: LEDs market synthesis

HBLEDs for front light will gain increasing market share over “conventional” LEDs for the interior

2003 - 2009 LEDs market for cars

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

1 2

$mill

ions Total INTERNAL ligth car market

Total EXTERNAL ligth car market

2003 2009

CAGR 2003-2009 for internal LEDs: 5%

CAGR 2003-2009 for external red/amber LEDs: 21%

CAGR 2003-2009 for external white HBLEDs: 72%

Car Lighting - synthesis

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Number of lumens per type of light

Source: Visteon

Car Lighting - Technologies

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LED front lighting system

Source: Hella

Car front lighting

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GaN crystal growth

GaN crystal growth

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Gallium status

• Estimated crude gallium production was 81 t in 2001.• Principal world producers were China, Germany, Japan,

Kazakhstan, and Russia. Hungary, Slovakia, and Ukraine• France (GEO Gallium) was the largest producer of

refined gallium using gallium produced in Germany as feed material. Japan and the United States also refined gallium.

• Price: normal level of $500 to $600 per kilogram for 99.9999%-pure material but can vary with telecommunication business (Due to GaAs consumption that represents more than 90% of the total production)

• Numerous agreements have been signed between Gallium users (Sumitomo, Furukawa, Hitachi, Filtronic, …) and Gallium producers to secure a reliable Gasource.

GaN crystal growth

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Worldwide GaN R&D research programs

R&D research programs

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GaN EC funded Projects R&D

Projects EURONIM DENIS ISCE-MOCVDStart / End Date 2001-03-01/2004-02-29 2002-04-01/2005-03-31 2000-02-01/2003-01-31Project Cost € 4.87 million € 2.08 million € 2.28 millionProject Funding € 2.21 million € 1.55 million € 1.53 million

Partners Thales S.A.CRHEAIQE (Europe) LimitedDaimlerChrysler AgSwiss Federal Institute Of Technology LausanneResearch Institute For Technical Physics And Materials ScienceNovasic S.A.Osram-opto Semiconductors GmbHPicogiga S.A.

Acreo AbUnipressOkmetic OyUniv. of BremenLinkoeping UniversityOsram-optoSemiconductors Gmbh

Aixtron AGTU BerlinIqe (Europe) LimitedJ. Kepler Univ. LinzThales S.A.Philips Analytical NVSentech Instruments GmbHUniv. Masaryk In Brno

Aim Four types of industrial products will be developed: epi ready SiC wafers, GaN on sapphire or SiC wafers for re-growth of active structures, GaN wafers, epi wafers with structures upon customer request. Advanced devices (HEMTs, laser diodes) will be obtained to assess the material quality.

The project aims to develop a growth technique suitable for the production of GaN wafers. Material quality will be evaluated using a number of device demonstrators, a UV LED, a high power HEMT and a violet laser diode.

The project focus on in situ monitoring of the MOCVD process for the two material systems:ternary and quaternary {al, ga, in} -{as, p sb}on gallium nitride (GAN) and related materials

R&D research programs