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LCI Subcommittee March 1, 2011 1

LCI Subcommittee

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LCI Subcommittee. March 1, 2011. Seasonal Restrictions. Currently in place in 15 states Arkansas, Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Indiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Wisconsin - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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LCI Subcommittee

March 1, 2011

1

Seasonal Restrictions

• Currently in place in 15 states– Arkansas, Arizona, Colorado, Delaware,

Indiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Wisconsin

• Restrictions vary depending on state but typically wage credits earned during “season” can only be used to qualify for unemployment during the “season.”

2

Six Potentially Seasonal Sectors

SECTOR OFF SEASON

• Agriculture Q1

• Construction Q1 & Q4

• Retail Sales Q4

• Public Administration Q4

• Professional Services Q2, Q3, & Q4

• Tourism Q1 & Q43

Potential Cost Savings

• Compared unemployment cost in “high” and “off” seasons.

• Difference is projected cost savings from seasonal restrictions.

Industry Cost Savings

Agriculture $0.18 million

Construction $6.21 million

Retail Sales $3.22 million

Public Administration $0.65 million

Professional Services $3.32 million

Tourism $5.76 million

Total $19.33 million 4

Severance Pay• South Carolina does not currently take

severance pay into consideration when determining weekly benefit payments for unemployment.

• States with some reduction in benefits: AK, CA, CO, DE, FL, IL, KY, LA, ME, MD, MN, NH, OH, SD, UT, VT, VA, WA, WI (19)

• States with ineligibility while receiving: AR, AZ, CT, GA, MA, MI, NV, NJ, TN, TX, WV, WY (12)

5

Scenario 14: “Senator Thomas”• Put all classes at last year’s average tax

rate (I.e., 1.45% for tier 1, 4.76% for tier 20 etc)

• Credit to 1-12 for extra FUTA

• Surcharge on 13-20 to cover extra FUTA

• Surcharge on 13-20 to cover cost of benefits (I.e. $500 million)

• Surcharge on 1-20 to cover interest6

Scenario 14: “Senator Thomas”• Stretch repayment out by only collecting

enough to cover current benefits and interest.

• FUTA increases each year

• Loan repaid in March 2017

• $141.4 million total interest

• Surcharge on 13-20 for extra interest cost

7

Scenario 14: Projected Costs

Total SUTA & FUTA Cost 2011

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20171 $211.31 $241.51 $66.25 $65.35 $65.10 $64.40 $64.402 $209.79 $239.59 $146.19 $140.51 $139.56 $131.84 $130.523 $211.32 $241.33 $155.41 $149.10 $147.91 $139.34 $137.874 $210.91 $240.72 $165.65 $158.64 $157.19 $147.66 $146.035 $211.57 $241.37 $177.04 $169.25 $167.50 $156.92 $155.106 $218.30 $249.30 $189.68 $181.03 $178.96 $167.19 $165.187 $229.11 $262.12 $203.74 $194.12 $191.69 $178.62 $176.388 $230.01 $263.02 $219.35 $208.67 $205.83 $191.31 $188.829 $235.01 $268.82 $236.70 $224.83 $221.54 $205.41 $202.64

10 $243.13 $278.33 $255.98 $242.79 $239.01 $221.08 $218.0011 $252.36 $289.17 $277.40 $262.75 $258.41 $238.48 $235.0712 $265.74 $304.95 $301.20 $284.92 $279.96 $257.83 $254.0313 $526.87 $499.98 $522.76 $567.76 $606.01 $658.45 $693.3914 $566.99 $530.97 $549.20 $593.04 $629.24 $681.36 $714.0215 $621.01 $576.74 $578.57 $621.12 $655.06 $706.81 $736.9416 $671.14 $615.73 $611.20 $652.32 $683.74 $735.08 $762.4117 $727.61 $659.98 $647.46 $687.00 $715.61 $766.50 $790.7118 $803.70 $725.15 $687.75 $725.52 $751.03 $801.41 $822.1519 $882.69 $790.90 $732.51 $768.32 $790.37 $840.20 $857.0820 $970.89 $864.48 $782.25 $815.88 $834.09 $883.30 $895.90

8

Scenario 14: Change over Current

Total SUTA & FUTA Cost 2011

CHANGE TOTAL CHANGE1 $145.00 $174.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $319.002 $49.96 $88.95 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $138.913 $40.62 $80.97 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $121.594 $28.13 $69.57 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $97.705 $15.37 $58.23 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $73.606 $7.19 $52.83 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $60.027 $1.43 $50.84 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $52.278 -$16.08 $35.28 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $19.219 -$31.53 $22.80 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$8.72

10 -$46.14 $12.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$34.1411 -$62.16 $0.27 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$61.8912 -$76.84 -$9.03 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$85.8713 -$71.93 -$43.00 $4.22 $80.37 $129.20 $223.99 $266.19 $589.0414 -$91.46 -$65.32 -$19.94 $58.52 $106.61 $205.78 $246.51 $440.6915 -$103.72 -$78.78 -$46.79 $34.23 $81.51 $185.54 $224.64 $296.6316 -$127.22 -$105.61 -$76.61 $7.25 $53.62 $163.06 $200.34 $114.8217 -$152.56 -$134.48 -$109.76 -$22.73 $22.63 $138.07 $173.34 -$85.4918 -$167.38 -$150.56 -$146.58 -$56.05 -$11.79 $110.31 $143.34 -$278.7219 -$189.41 -$175.09 -$187.50 -$93.06 -$50.05 $79.47 $110.00 -$505.6420 -$213.43 -$201.82 -$232.96 -$134.19 -$92.56 $45.20 $72.96 -$756.79

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Scenario 14: Cost Shift

• For 2011:– Adds $33 million to classes 1-6– Saves $117 million for classes 7-20

• For 2011-2017:– Adds $182 million to classes 1-6 & 13-16– Saves $182 million for classes 7-12 & 16-20

10

2011

$0.00

$200.00

$400.00

$600.00

$800.00

$1,000.00

$1,200.00

$1,400.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Rate Class

Scenario 14

Current

11

2012

$0.00

$200.00

$400.00

$600.00

$800.00

$1,000.00

$1,200.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Rate Class

Scenario 14

Current

12

2013

$0.00

$200.00

$400.00

$600.00

$800.00

$1,000.00

$1,200.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Rate Class

Scenario 14

Current

13

2014

$0.00

$100.00

$200.00

$300.00

$400.00

$500.00

$600.00

$700.00

$800.00

$900.00

$1,000.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Rate Class

Scenario 14

Current

14

2015

$0.00

$100.00

$200.00

$300.00

$400.00

$500.00

$600.00

$700.00

$800.00

$900.00

$1,000.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Rate Class

Scenario 14

Current

15

2016

$0.00

$100.00

$200.00

$300.00

$400.00

$500.00

$600.00

$700.00

$800.00

$900.00

$1,000.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Rate Class

Scenario 14

Current

16

2017

$0.00

$100.00

$200.00

$300.00

$400.00

$500.00

$600.00

$700.00

$800.00

$900.00

$1,000.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Rate Class

Scenario 14

Current

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Movement Down Tiers•Acme Inc. is in rate class 18 for 2011.

•Assume that:

•benefits return to 2006 levels experienced by Acme Inc.

•taxable wages remain same as 2010 except on the higher taxable wage base.

•What happens to benefit ratio and tax rates over time?

18

Movement Down TiersYear Benefits Taxable

WagesBenefit Ratio

Rate Class

Tax Rate (excluding contingency)

Cost per Worker

2011 $3.4 mil $57.2 mil 0.059852 18 9.10% $909.50

2012 $4.1 mil $79.9 mil 0.051061 18 6.77% $812.52

2013 $4.2 mil $104.3 mil 0.032091 15 4.69% $562.20

2014 $1.1 mil $87.7 mil 0.012983 10 1.50% $179.64

Note: TWB increased in 2012, look back period changes in 2014.

Improved employment history for Acme Inc. and lower benefit charges in general help lower costs quickly moving forward.

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Agricultural Labor

• FUTA’s agricultural labor provisions apply to employing units who paid wages in cash of $20,000 or more for agricultural labor in any calendar quarter in the current or preceding calendar year or who employed 10 or more workers on at least 1 day in each of 20 different weeks in the current or preceding calendar year.

• Typically limits coverage to large farms.20

Agriculture (1111, 1112, 1113, 1114, 1119, 1121, 1122, 1123, 1129, 1131, 1132)

21

•Firms in classes 1-12: 73.4%•Emp in classes 1-12: 75.6%

•Firms in classes 13-20: 26.6%•Employment in classes 13-20: 24.4%

Est Emp Firms 1 830 11.0% 161 42.5%2 2,080 27.5% 22 5.8%3 494 6.5% 17 4.5%4 250 3.3% 11 2.9%5 285 3.8% 6 1.6%6 83 1.1% 6 1.6%7 1,035 13.7% 10 2.6%8 80 1.1% 7 1.8%9 106 1.4% 11 2.9%

10 106 1.4% 7 1.8%11 251 3.3% 13 3.4%12 113 1.5% 7 1.8%13 357 4.7% 14 3.7%14 49 0.6% 9 2.4%15 674 8.9% 15 4.0%16 164 2.2% 13 3.4%17 222 2.9% 13 3.4%18 135 1.8% 11 2.9%19 88 1.2% 10 2.6%20 158 2.1% 16 4.2%

7,559  379 

What makes up my rate?

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Benefits Loan Principal Loan Interest Contingency0.0% 0.0% 41.8% 58.2%

69.4% 20.3% 4.6% 5.8%69.8% 20.4% 4.6% 5.2%70.1% 20.5% 4.7% 4.7%70.5% 20.6% 4.7% 4.3%70.8% 20.7% 4.7% 3.9%71.0% 20.7% 4.7% 3.5%71.3% 20.8% 4.7% 3.2%71.5% 20.9% 4.8% 2.8%71.7% 20.9% 4.8% 2.6%71.9% 21.0% 4.8% 2.3%72.1% 21.0% 4.8% 2.1%72.8% 21.3% 4.8% 1.1%72.9% 21.3% 4.8% 1.0%72.9% 21.3% 4.9% 0.9%73.0% 21.3% 4.9% 0.8%73.1% 21.3% 4.9% 0.7%73.1% 21.4% 4.9% 0.7%73.2% 21.4% 4.9% 0.6%73.2% 21.4% 4.9% 0.5%

BenefitsLoan Principal

Loan Interest Contingency

Cost per Worker

$0.00 $0.00 $4.30 $6.00 $10.30$72.01 $20.99 $4.80 $6.00 $103.80$80.02 $22.98 $5.30 $6.00 $114.30$88.91 $26.09 $5.90 $6.00 $126.90$98.79 $29.21 $6.60 $6.00 $140.60

$109.76 $32.24 $7.30 $6.00 $155.30$121.96 $36.04 $8.10 $6.00 $172.10$135.51 $39.49 $9.00 $6.00 $190.00$150.56 $44.44 $10.00 $6.00 $211.00$167.29 $48.71 $11.10 $6.00 $233.10$185.88 $54.12 $12.30 $6.00 $258.30$206.54 $60.46 $13.70 $6.00 $286.70$395.14 $115.86 $26.30 $6.00 $543.30$439.05 $127.95 $29.20 $6.00 $602.20$487.83 $142.17 $32.40 $6.00 $668.40$542.03 $157.97 $36.00 $6.00 $742.00$602.26 $175.74 $40.00 $6.00 $824.00$669.18 $195.82 $44.50 $6.00 $915.50$743.53 $217.47 $49.40 $6.00 $1,016.40$826.14 $240.86 $54.90 $6.00 $1,127.90

Approximately 26% of cost in 2011 is for loan and interest.

Paying Off Deficit

• 7-year deficit for classes 13-20 is $1 billion

• Larger than $680 million proposed to be raised in 2011.

• Does not cover “non-charged” benefits

• Does not cover “inactive employer” benefits

• Does not address need to raise money for benefits in the upcoming year.

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Projected Rates with No Debt2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1 $6.00 $7.20 $7.20 $7.20 $8.402 $78.01 $70.04 $60.03 $56.98 $53.283 $86.02 $77.02 $65.90 $62.51 $58.264 $94.91 $84.78 $72.42 $68.66 $63.805 $104.79 $93.40 $79.67 $75.48 $69.966 $115.76 $102.97 $87.72 $83.07 $76.807 $127.96 $113.61 $96.67 $91.50 $84.408 $141.51 $125.44 $106.61 $100.87 $92.849 $156.56 $138.58 $117.66 $111.28 $102.22

10 $173.29 $153.17 $129.93 $122.84 $112.6511 $191.88 $169.39 $158.72 $149.97 $124.2312 $212.54 $187.41 $175.55 $165.83 $137.1013 $401.14 $351.98 $209.22 $197.56 $162.8414 $445.05 $390.29 $249.79 $235.78 $185.8115 $493.83 $432.86 $276.75 $261.18 $205.5216 $548.03 $480.15 $306.70 $289.40 $227.4217 $608.26 $532.70 $339.97 $320.76 $251.7618 $675.18 $591.09 $376.95 $355.60 $278.8019 $749.53 $655.97 $418.03 $394.31 $308.8420 $832.14 $728.05 $655.20 $655.20 $764.40

DOL mandates that lowest max rate is 5.4% (class 20 must be at least 5.4%) 24

Paying off DeficitYear Non-Charged Inactive

2005 $21 million (5%) $40 million (10%)

2006 $53 million (16%) $44 million (13%)

2007 $49 million (15%) $26 million (8%)

2008 $44 million (13%) $31 million (9%)

2009 $53 million (14%) $44 million (11%)

2010 $44 million (8%) $56 million (10%)

Only 6 years have $264 million in non-charged; $241 million inactive--cannot be made up for with one-time check for deficit.25