Laws That Are Governing The Network - ITSSEVCIK'S NETWORK SWITCHING LAWS • Sevcik published his work in the Business Communications Review, September, 1997, page 33, titled “Why

September 7, 2000University of Colorado at BoulderInterdisciplinary Telecommunications Program

1

LawsThat Are GoverningThe Network

Harvey M. GatesInterdisciplinary Telecommunications Program

School of Engineering and Applied Sciences

Engineering Center OT 3-17

Campus Box 530

University of Colorado at BoulderBoulder, CO 80309-0530

[email protected]

303-735-2684

2000 Third Annual International Symposium on Advanced Radio Technologies

September 6-8, 2000

U.S. Department of Commerce

Boulder Laboratories

Boulder, CO


2

THE NETWORK

• “The Network”– All digital networks worldwide– Includes the Internet– Includes the digital carrier networks

• Local Exchange Carriers• Inter-Exchange Carriers

– Includes trans-oceanic carriers– Includes all digital networks

• Local area networks (LANs)• Metro area networks (MANs)• Wide area networks (WANs)


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LAWS OF THE NETWORK

• Gordon Moore’s Laws– Moore’s 1st Law– Moore’s 2nd Law

• George Gilder’s Law of the Telecosm• Network Intelligence

– Peter J. Sevcik on Switched System Performance

– David Isenberg and the Rise of the Stupid Network

• Observations in Satellite Systems• Disruptive Technologies, a Need• Conclusions


4

MOORE’S 1st LAW

• Moore’s Law (The 1st Law)– Gordon Moore, Chairman Emeritus of Intel, predicted

that chip complexity would double every device generation

• Chip complexity is defined by the number of active elements on a single semiconductor chip

– Now roughly comparable to performance as measured in millions of instructions per second (MIPS)

• The device generation was assumed to be approximately 18 months, and still applies today

• Valid now for three decades


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MOORE’S 1st LAW PREVAILS

• Appears likely to be valid for several more device generations

1975 1997 2003Chip complexity (index to 1) 1 10 100Feature size reduction, mm 2 0.25 0.08Chip size increase, mm2 30 150 600Wafer diameter, mm 50 200 300Facility automation, % 5 60 80Die yield, % good 40 85 95Line yield, % good 40 90 95Operational efficiency 1 10 100Equipment cost 1 10 50


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• Cost in fabricating chips (factory cost) is also exponential in the opposite direction and is off-setting the gains in complexity

– High-volume factories are now multi-billion dollar investments

MOORE’S 2nd LAW

101

102

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

Com

plex

ity

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

$200

$500

$2000

$5000

Fact

ory

Cos

t in

$M


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INERTIA BEHIND MOORE

• Side note:– In 1974, Moore extrapolated the wafer size suggesting that by

2000 a wafer would be 57-inches in diameter - off by a factor of 10

• Important to note the impact of new technologies, materials, and processes allow structures on an atomic scale– New products and micromechanical devices in the labs include

• Micro-refrigerators• Micro-turbines• Micro-motors


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GILDER’S LAW OF THE TELECOSM

• The law of the telecosm ordains that the total bandwidth of communications systems will triple every year for the next 25 years - George Gilder, Gilder Technology Report Volume II, Number 2, February 1997


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IMPRESSIVE FIBER GROWTH19

86

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

Fiber Deployment by Telcos

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Mill

ions

of F

iber

Mile

s

CLECs

ILECs

IXCs

Source: FCC

Global Undersea Fiber Capacity

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Gig

abits

Source: GTG19

84

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000


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ADVANCES IN WAVE DIVISION MULTIPLEXING (WDM)

• WDM commercially introduced in 1996• Now running 8, 16, and 32 λs• Avanex now testing 800• Lucent’s “AllWave product objective is 3300 λs

800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Wavelength (nm)

25

Single modeMultimode

105

21

.5

.2.1A

ttenu

atio

n (d

B/k

m)

Visible light is between 400 to 700 nm.

3 THz

WDM channels

20

15

10

5 Opt

ical

am

p ga

in, d

B


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MORE BANDWIDTH ON THE WAY

• Bundled fibers• Moves toward lower noise & higher amplification

efficiencies– Pre-Erbium doped fiber amplifiers (EDFAs) repeater

spacing on the order of less than 100 km– EDFAs allow 400 to 600 km– Ramon amplifiers show promise of 10 Gb/s to 3,000 km– Ytterbium is another doping possibility


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BUNDLED FIBER OPTIC TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS

27

32

• Bundle of 864 SMF strands each with a core, cladding and buffer

• At 3,300 λs each• Could contain 2.86 million λs• At 10 Gigabits/ λ, that equals

28.6 Petabits/sec for this bundle


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NETWORK INTELLIGENCE

• Network intelligence is moving to the network edge and away from the network core

– David S. Isenberg in the Rise of the Stupid Network• Concept introduced April 1, 1996• Followed by internal AT&T publications and seminars

– Peter J. Sevcik’s Network Switching Laws were published a year later in the Business Communications Review, September, 1997

• Both weave the transition from centralized to decentralized network intelligence


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DAVID S. ISENBERG’S MESSAGES

• On April 1, 1996, Isenberg, a top scientific researcher at AT&T,sponsored an international conference titled: What if minutes Were Free?

– So heretical and ridiculous that he chaired the event in a court jester’s outfit.

• An internal paper on the subject was circulated at AT&T• A year later, June 25, 1997 at 5:48 PM EST, Isenberg was allowed to

release the electronic version - Rise of the Stupid Network– He wrote in his cover e-mail: “Here is my attempt at entropy gradient

reversal at AT&T. . .– . . If you want EXPLICIT frontal exposure of the Critical Issues, or

language that is commensurate with my thinking, you’ll have to read between the bits.”


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ISENBERG’S SIMPLE PREMICE - THE MIPS OF A TELEPHONE VERSES THE PC AND END USER IS SHIFTING

POWER TO THE EDGE OF THE NETWORK

4

44

4 4

IXCNetwork

OfFiber

TrunksThe

AssetsOf the

IXC

ISPRouters

Client

Server


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SEVCIK'S NETWORK SWITCHING LAWS

• Sevcik published his work in the Business Communications Review,September, 1997, page 33, titled “Why Circuit Switching is Doomed”

– Short and sweet quantitative material that fell in line with Isenberg’s findings• Sevcik’s Network Switching Laws

– Successful new switching technologies double their performance/cost ratio twice as fast as the previous technology.

– As switches improve their performance/cost ratios, they also shed processing functions to satellite processors (severs) or directly to end stations.

– A steep performance/cost improvement trajectory is more important to the success of a switching technology than its initial performance or cost relative to its competitors.

• Side note: “Personally, I never bet against compounding.” Peter Sevcik


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MOST INTERESTING GRAPH

Peter J. Sevcik"Why Circuit Switching is Doomed"Business Communications Review, September, 1997

10,000,000

1,000,000

100,000

10,000

1,000

100

10

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Perf

orm

ance

/Cos

t (bp

s per

$)

Circuit Switch Router Switch

Fram

e Switc

h

ATM Switch


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ELECTRONIC VERSES OPTICAL SWITCHING

• More support for dumbing down networks– Micro Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS)

• Lucent Technologies’ WaveStar™ LambdaRouter™ of 256-inputs to 256-outputs

– Bubble Matrix• Agelent Technologies’ Champagne


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ARE SATELLITES KEEPING PACE?

• Research conducted by Victoria L. Miralda at the University of Colorado - Spring Semester, 2000

– Satellites may be an aberration in the data– Some data - commercial payloads deployed

GEO Commercial LEO Commercial Total CommercialPayloads

1995 18 4 221996 24 1 251997 28 59 871998 22 82 1041999 22 54 76

AST: Commercial Space Transportation: 1999 Year in Review


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SATELLITE LAUNCHES SEEM TO DOUBLE EVERY TEN YEARS

13

73

171247

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

250

200

150

100

50

0Num

ber

of G

EOs L

aunc

hed


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ROLL-UP OF RAW ORBITAL BANDWIDTH CURRENT AND PROJECTED

1500

1000

500

01990 1995 2000 2005 2010

80.04 159.1

688.5

1145

Band

wid

th in

GH

z


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LAW OF THE SPACECOSM

• LEOs will be capable of tripling capacity approximately every 5 years and GEOs every 8-10, depending on the multiple factors of the Spacecosm. The average time to triple satellite bandwidth capacity will be on average 7 years.

Victoria L. Miralda, “Will Satellite Communications Keep Pace With Internet?” Research Thesis, University of Colorado at Boulder, Interdisciplinary Telecommunications Program, Boulder, CO, April 14, 2000


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A CASE FOR DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES

• A disruptive technology is one which defies projections by introducing a step function in the trend that it supports– Marc Andreessen’s Mosaic Browser given Ted Nelson’s hyper-

text and Tim Berners-Lee hyper-linking– Breakthrough of the semiconductor industry from traditional Al+Si

vrs CU+Cu– Wave Division Multiplexing (WDM)– And so on . . .


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CLIENTS AND SERVER DEMANDS WILL NOT SLOW DOWN

Digitally downloaded product sales forecast, 1999 to 2004

$3,000M

$2,500M

$2,000M

$1,500M

$1,000M

$500M

0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

VideosBooksVideogames

Music

Software


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CONCLUSIONS

• The laws of the network seem to be holding firm• Such projections have and will continue to appear radical and even

preposterous– “Here is my attempt at entropy gradient reversal at AT&T. Of course,

everyone knows that reversing the entropy gradient is absolutelyimpossible, and that if you show even the vaguest threat of succeeding, the threatened world throws you out on your ear.” - David S. Isenberg

• But, disruptive technologies can be counted on - the final law of the network

• Let each and every one of us be a part of this wonderful ride

Documents

Laws That Are Governing The Network - ITSSEVCIK'S NETWORK SWITCHING LAWS • Sevcik published his work in the Business Communications Review, September, 1997, page 33, titled “Why