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Latin America: The World’s Future i l? Rice Bowl? R S Zeigler R. S. Zeigler Director General International Rice Research Institute International Rice Research Institute

Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

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Page 1: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Latin America: The World’s Future

i l?Rice Bowl?

R S ZeiglerR. S. ZeiglerDirector General

International Rice Research InstituteInternational Rice Research Institute

Page 2: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

What is rice?What is rice?• Perhaps the oldest

domesticated cropp– Tremendously diverse

• More than just food– Though it is the

primary staple forprimary staple forbillions (~ 50% of world, > 70% of poor)

• And it grows under monsoon conditions where no other majorwhere no other major crops can grow

Page 3: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Gl b l Ri A d P d tiGlobal Rice Area and Production

Production in metric tons per cell

1 000 2 500 5 000 10 000 25 000 50 000

Source: You, Wood-Sichra and Wood, 2009

Cells are approximately 100 x 100 hectares at the equator

1,000 2,500 5,000 10,000 25,000 50,000

Page 4: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

INTERNATIONAL RICE RESEARCH INSTITUTELos Baños, Philippines

Mission:

R d t d hReduce poverty and hunger

Improve the health of rice f dfarmers and consumers

Ensure environmental sustainabilitysustainability

Through research partnerships Home of the Green Revolutionpartnerships Home of the Green Revolution

Established 1960

www.irri.org

Page 5: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Rice is typically grown by small family farm enterprises (<2 ha)farm enterprises (<2 ha)

Myanmar

Page 6: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

If we want to do something about poverty, it is clear that we must invest in rice

PovertyEach dot represents 250,000 people living on less than $1.25 a day, 2005

Rice ConsumptionAnnual consumption per capita 

<25kg   25‐50    50‐75    75‐100  >100kg

90% of the world’s rice is produced and consumed in AsiaOver 70% of the world’s poor are in Asia

Page 7: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

The Green Revolution: A new plant hit t f 2 4 i ldarchitecture for 2 – 4x yield

1960• 1960s – yields ~1.5

t/hat/ha– widespread

famines predicted

T d• Today– yields > 4

t/ha T diti lS i d ft/ha– economic

growth

TraditionalSemi - dwarf

Page 8: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Peter Jennings: Creator of the f d ti f d i i tifoundation of modern rice varieties

Brought these to Latin America…revolutionized rice production

Page 9: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

6 0

5.0

6.0Annual rate of yield increase: 52.4 kg grain/ha(R2=0.982)

DiversificationReduced tillage

Water-saving irrigationSSNM

Post-harvest lossesCommunity IPM

Ecosystem services

Mechanized tillageDirect seeding

HerbicidesIPM

eld

(t/ha

)

4.0Irrigation

2-3 crops/yearN f tili

Ecosystem servicesCC adaptation/mitigation

IPMMore N & P fertilizerDecline in manureand green manure

Mechanized harvest

HybridsYi ld i l (?)

d ric

e yi

e

3.0

Grain quality

Abiotic stressesWide hybridization

New Plant Type

N fertilizer Pesticides

Semi-dwarf, short duration MV

Yield potential (?)Precision breeding:- abiotic stresses- biotic stresses- adaptation to RCT- biofortification

grain quality

Wor

ld

1 0

2.0Yield potential

DwarfismShort duration

Grain dormancy

Resistance to insects & diseases

Adverse soil tolerance

Grain quality,Hybrid rice

Floodprone riceRainfed rice

ypIsogenic lines/MASGene pyramiding

- grain quality

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100.0

1.0IR8

Grain dormancy

IR64IR36IR26 IR72 PSBRc18 NSIC Rc158

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Page 10: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Green Revolution SlowsGlobal Rice Yield (1961-2010)Global Rice Yield (1961 2010)

Average yield (t ha-1) Average yearly increase overprevious 10 years (kg ha-1)

5.0 200

4.0 160

3.0 120

1.0

2.0

40

80

0.0

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

0

© WPQ

Year

Page 11: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Global rice production increases needed to meet demand by 2035

Where Will the World’s Rice

600Million tons milled rice

needed to meet demand by 2035Come From?

550

600

Additional rice needed: 114 million tons by 2035

450

500

350

400

2010 global rice production

300

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

Asia Africa Americas Rest of world

Page 12: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Where Will the World’s Rice Come F ?From?

• Ideally from increasing productivity on y g p yexisting rice lands, mostly in Asia

• BUT, in Asia:– Land is moving out of rice– Labor is moving out of rice

Water is moving out of rice– Water is moving out of rice• Major changes in production practices

and increases in efficiency Just to stay y ywhere we are

• Significant new rice lands may be d dneeded

Page 13: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

To Make Matters Worse: Climate Change Effects on Rice Production Hit Asia Hard

Page 14: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Impact of Cyclone Nargis in Burma (May 08)

Sea – Level Rise

>60% of Global

Irrawaddy Delta

>60% of Global Increase in Rice Production in the last 30 years

Before Nargis

last 30 years came from Delta countries of Asia

After Nargis

Page 15: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Where Will This Rice Come From?C op Land in Use and Total S itable LandCrop Land in Use and Total Suitable Land

Majority of suitable land unavailable or locked up in other uses45%: forest12%: Protected area3%: human settlements

The remaining land may have problems such as low soil fertility, high soil toxicity, etc.

Source: World Agriculture Towards 2015/2030, FAO http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/Y3557E/y3557e08.htm#TopofPage

Page 16: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Each dot represents 5,000 hectares of rice

Rice ecosystems in Latin America

Irrigated fieldsRainfed, flooded fieldsRainfed, non flooded fields

< 5% of globalrice production

Source: Hijmans, 2008

Page 17: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Trends in rice area: 1980 - 20101980199020002010Over the last 30 years the rice area in Brazil has reduced from 6 1 t 2 9 h t 6.1m to 2.9m hectares, while in the rest of LAC the rice area has increased from 1.9m t 2 8 h tto 2.8m hectares

Harvested area ('000 ha) 1980-2010

7 000

8,000

9,000

Brazil Rest of Latin America

Rice area in hectares< 50,00050 000 – 100 000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,00050,000 100,000100,000 – 200,000200,000 – 500,000> 500 000

Source: USDA, 2010-

1,000

2,000

1980 1990 2000 2010

> 500,000

Page 18: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

LAC Rice Consumption vs P l ti (1990 100)Population (1990=100)

160

Index of Population and Consumption (1990=100)

140

160

120

100Rising significance of Rice in LAC Food Basket

80

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Consumption Population

Page 19: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Can LAC Become the Next Rice Bowl?

Bi t d t• Biggest advantage:– Endowed with plenty of land and water.

• Bottleneck– Global market is small and unstable.– As it stands right now, LAC rice is not competitive in

the export market. • Although subsidies in many rice growing countries

make it even look worse– Inadequate infrastructure

What Needs to Happen?• What Needs to Happen?– LAC countries need to lower costs to $1,000 per

hectare and improve productivity to at least 7 tonnes/ha to be able to compete in the global markettonnes/ha to be able to compete in the global market (Calvert et al.)

– A stable global market and minimal distortions in rice trade.

Page 20: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

From Major LAC Rice – Potential C t i R iCountries Requires…

• Long term policy commitment toLong term policy commitment to permanent expansion of rice sector

• Strategic vision for the development of g ppotential rice producing lands– Strategic assessments of relative investments

in new irrigated and savanna/cerrado lands• Long term commitment to research for

t i bl th i th i tsustainable growth in the rice sector– A science – based second Green Revolution

Stable policies for long term• Stable policies for long term competitiveness

Page 21: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

From the Global Community…From the Global Community…

• Even handed subsidies and incentiveEven handed subsidies and incentive policies

• Mechanism to deal with trade disruptions and protectionist practices

• Access to real – time information on global production and trade

• A rice futures market and exchange?

Page 22: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Science – Based New Green Revolution?e o ut o

• Tap the revolutions in genetics, molecular biology and plant physiologybiology and plant physiology

• Link soils biology and chemistry to better understand and manipulate sustainable

t i t lnutrient supply• Exploit the explosion of computation capacity

and remote sensing to model systems and linkand remote sensing to model systems and link process at scales from the cellular through ecosystems and regions

• Proactively link the political and social dimensions of agriculture to technology developmentp

Page 23: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

“The majority view, contending that more productive varieties were needed, led to

i i t t d i th t 25massive investment during the past 25 years in biotechnology and genetics and under-investment in crop management ”under-investment in crop management.

Rice Today, April-June 2007

Page 24: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

What happened after the Green Revolution of the 1970s?Revolution of the 1970s?

My bet where yields would beWith no new varieties

After a doubling of yields, no major gains since the early 1980s

HOWEVER, that does not mean that advances were not made:

E. Pulver

Grain quality, growth duration, disease and insect resistance…

Page 25: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Latin American Fund for Irrigated Rice (FLAR)

So th So th platfo m that seeks s ne g in ice R & ESouth – South platform that seeks synergy in rice R & E

Established in 1995

Page 26: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil9032 Farms

1.1 million haFRONTEIRA 

OESTE

PLANÍCIEDEPRESSÃO

1.084 Farm303.920 ha

PLANÍCIE COSTEIRA INTERNA

DEPRESSÃO CENTRAL

3.375 Farm158 445 ha

CAMPANHA PLANÍCIE COSTEIRA

158.445 ha

1.474 Farm129.155ha

ZONA SUL

COSTEIRA EXTERNA

1.371 Farm141.206 ha

1.127 Farm166.060 ha

SUL601 Farm

177.588 ha

Page 27: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Rio Grande do Sul 2000 status

Date of planting – 50% in Dec.Plant population – 150 – 200 kg seed/haPest/Disease

95% insecticide / herbicide2 applications of insecticidesUse of furadan widespread, environmental riskrisk 3 applications of fungicides, preventative

<100 kg N/ha, 100% in water, AE 15 kg grain/kg Ng g g gWater management – 50% after 30 daysAverage yield = 5.2 t/haYield growth 25 kg/ha/yr = 40 years for 1 t/ha

Page 28: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Precision Management Practices in Rio Grande do SulRio Grande do Sul

1. Plant early to maximize yield potential– Choose right variety; land preparation after harvest

2. Reduce seed rate to 70-80 kg/ha3. Preventive pest management

Seed coating (insecticide fungicide); fungicide (PI F)– Seed coating (insecticide, fungicide); fungicide (PI-F)

4. Preventive and early weed control:– Pure seed; Clearfield varieties, crop rotation– Herbicide at V3-V4

5. Balanced nutrition with high NUEBasal NPK placed with seed (2” x 2”)– Basal NPK placed with seed (2” x 2”)

– High N dose at V3-V4 on dry soil (pre-flood)– Topdress N at PI (airplane)

6. Irrigate early– Irrigate at V3-V4 and keep flooded

Harvest and recycle water

Page 29: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

2009

2T/ha = 80 yrs!

Page 30: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Average cost of productiong p

33,48 33,0030,91

35,00 Custo unitário (R$/saco 50kg)

-- 21 8%21 8%

26,64

24,12

26,1930,00

21,8%21,8%

20,00

25,00

15,00

,

2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

Instituto Rio Grandense do Arroz

2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

Page 31: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Technically Possible for Latin A i t b C titiAmerica to be Competitive

• Technology is already present to raiseTechnology is already present to raise yields and reduce costs

• New science is available that will permit pfurther increases in yield potential and actual yield in the field

Page 32: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Is There the Political Will?Is There the Political Will?

A Look at Trends Over the LastA Look at Trends Over the Last Several Decades Suggests Not

Page 33: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Trend in Agricultural R&D Expenditures in Developing Countries, 1981-2006

LAC

Massive investments In Asia

Source: Public Agricultural Research in Latin America and the Caribbean by G. Stads and N. M. Beintema

Page 34: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Irrigation Investment in LACg1962-95 (IDB+WB))

1995-09 (WB only)

!

Source: Irrigation and Water Resources in Latin

¿!

Source: Irrigation and Water Resources in Latin America and the Caribbean: Challenges and Strategies by Ringer, Rosegrant and Paisner

Source: www.worldbank.org

Page 35: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Policies & MarketsPolicies & Markets

Can A Major Shift in Trade of a Major Crop Happen?

It Has Before…

Page 36: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Transformation of the Global S b M k tSoybean Market

100%

80%

40%

60%

20%

40%

0%70/71 73/74 76/77 79/80 82/83 85/86 88/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07

U it d St t B il A ti R t f th ldUnited States Brazil Argentina Rest of the world

Data Source: USDA

Page 37: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Emergence of Chinese Dependence on g pForeign Soybeans Was a Driver for Change

000 MT

40,000

50,000

30,000

10,000

20,000

0

70/71 74/75 78/79 82/83 86/87 90/91 94/95 98/99 02/03 06/07

Domestic consumption ImportsDomestic consumption Imports

Data Source: USDA

Page 38: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

LAC Becoming the Next Rice Bowl!

Bi t d t• Biggest advantage:– Endowed with plenty of land and water.

• Bottleneck– Global market is too small and unstable.– As it stands right now, LAC rice is not

competitive in the export market. • Although subsidies in many rice growing

countries make it even look worse– Inadequate infrastructure

What Needs to Happen?• What Needs to Happen?– LAC countries need to lower costs to $1,000

per hectare and improve productivity to at least 7 tons/ha to be able to compete in theleast 7 tons/ha to be able to compete in the global market (Calvert et al.)

– A stable global market and minimal distortions in rice trade.

Page 39: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Human capacity will have to be rebuilt

Page 40: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

In Summary…• We need productivity growth but that requires research,

development, dissemination Global food security depends on sustaining irrigated rice • Global food security depends on sustaining irrigated rice systems and probably opening new land

• Lessons from the Green Revolution: it DOES workLessons from the Green Revolution: it DOES work• The requirements for success are in place• Commitments to

the next generationof scientists

• Latin America can &must play a key role

Page 41: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Thank youThank you“Since the way to feed the world is not to bring more land under

cultivation, but to increase yields, science is crucial.”The Economist

“The Silent Tsunami”19 April 2008

Page 42: Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

Help us fill the world’s rice bowlsHelp us fill the world s rice bowls

Come join us!htt //i i /J i Uhttp://irri.org/JoinUs