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Latin America: The World’s Future
i l?Rice Bowl?
R S ZeiglerR. S. ZeiglerDirector General
International Rice Research InstituteInternational Rice Research Institute
What is rice?What is rice?• Perhaps the oldest
domesticated cropp– Tremendously diverse
• More than just food– Though it is the
primary staple forprimary staple forbillions (~ 50% of world, > 70% of poor)
• And it grows under monsoon conditions where no other majorwhere no other major crops can grow
Gl b l Ri A d P d tiGlobal Rice Area and Production
Production in metric tons per cell
1 000 2 500 5 000 10 000 25 000 50 000
Source: You, Wood-Sichra and Wood, 2009
Cells are approximately 100 x 100 hectares at the equator
1,000 2,500 5,000 10,000 25,000 50,000
INTERNATIONAL RICE RESEARCH INSTITUTELos Baños, Philippines
Mission:
R d t d hReduce poverty and hunger
Improve the health of rice f dfarmers and consumers
Ensure environmental sustainabilitysustainability
Through research partnerships Home of the Green Revolutionpartnerships Home of the Green Revolution
Established 1960
www.irri.org
Rice is typically grown by small family farm enterprises (<2 ha)farm enterprises (<2 ha)
Myanmar
If we want to do something about poverty, it is clear that we must invest in rice
PovertyEach dot represents 250,000 people living on less than $1.25 a day, 2005
Rice ConsumptionAnnual consumption per capita
<25kg 25‐50 50‐75 75‐100 >100kg
90% of the world’s rice is produced and consumed in AsiaOver 70% of the world’s poor are in Asia
The Green Revolution: A new plant hit t f 2 4 i ldarchitecture for 2 – 4x yield
1960• 1960s – yields ~1.5
t/hat/ha– widespread
famines predicted
T d• Today– yields > 4
t/ha T diti lS i d ft/ha– economic
growth
TraditionalSemi - dwarf
Peter Jennings: Creator of the f d ti f d i i tifoundation of modern rice varieties
Brought these to Latin America…revolutionized rice production
6 0
5.0
6.0Annual rate of yield increase: 52.4 kg grain/ha(R2=0.982)
DiversificationReduced tillage
Water-saving irrigationSSNM
Post-harvest lossesCommunity IPM
Ecosystem services
Mechanized tillageDirect seeding
HerbicidesIPM
eld
(t/ha
)
4.0Irrigation
2-3 crops/yearN f tili
Ecosystem servicesCC adaptation/mitigation
IPMMore N & P fertilizerDecline in manureand green manure
Mechanized harvest
HybridsYi ld i l (?)
d ric
e yi
e
3.0
Grain quality
Abiotic stressesWide hybridization
New Plant Type
N fertilizer Pesticides
Semi-dwarf, short duration MV
Yield potential (?)Precision breeding:- abiotic stresses- biotic stresses- adaptation to RCT- biofortification
grain quality
Wor
ld
1 0
2.0Yield potential
DwarfismShort duration
Grain dormancy
Resistance to insects & diseases
Adverse soil tolerance
Grain quality,Hybrid rice
Floodprone riceRainfed rice
ypIsogenic lines/MASGene pyramiding
- grain quality
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100.0
1.0IR8
Grain dormancy
IR64IR36IR26 IR72 PSBRc18 NSIC Rc158
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Green Revolution SlowsGlobal Rice Yield (1961-2010)Global Rice Yield (1961 2010)
Average yield (t ha-1) Average yearly increase overprevious 10 years (kg ha-1)
5.0 200
4.0 160
3.0 120
1.0
2.0
40
80
0.0
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
0
© WPQ
Year
Global rice production increases needed to meet demand by 2035
Where Will the World’s Rice
600Million tons milled rice
needed to meet demand by 2035Come From?
550
600
Additional rice needed: 114 million tons by 2035
450
500
350
400
2010 global rice production
300
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
Asia Africa Americas Rest of world
Where Will the World’s Rice Come F ?From?
• Ideally from increasing productivity on y g p yexisting rice lands, mostly in Asia
• BUT, in Asia:– Land is moving out of rice– Labor is moving out of rice
Water is moving out of rice– Water is moving out of rice• Major changes in production practices
and increases in efficiency Just to stay y ywhere we are
• Significant new rice lands may be d dneeded
To Make Matters Worse: Climate Change Effects on Rice Production Hit Asia Hard
Impact of Cyclone Nargis in Burma (May 08)
Sea – Level Rise
>60% of Global
Irrawaddy Delta
>60% of Global Increase in Rice Production in the last 30 years
Before Nargis
last 30 years came from Delta countries of Asia
After Nargis
Where Will This Rice Come From?C op Land in Use and Total S itable LandCrop Land in Use and Total Suitable Land
Majority of suitable land unavailable or locked up in other uses45%: forest12%: Protected area3%: human settlements
The remaining land may have problems such as low soil fertility, high soil toxicity, etc.
Source: World Agriculture Towards 2015/2030, FAO http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/Y3557E/y3557e08.htm#TopofPage
Each dot represents 5,000 hectares of rice
Rice ecosystems in Latin America
Irrigated fieldsRainfed, flooded fieldsRainfed, non flooded fields
< 5% of globalrice production
Source: Hijmans, 2008
Trends in rice area: 1980 - 20101980199020002010Over the last 30 years the rice area in Brazil has reduced from 6 1 t 2 9 h t 6.1m to 2.9m hectares, while in the rest of LAC the rice area has increased from 1.9m t 2 8 h tto 2.8m hectares
Harvested area ('000 ha) 1980-2010
7 000
8,000
9,000
Brazil Rest of Latin America
Rice area in hectares< 50,00050 000 – 100 000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,00050,000 100,000100,000 – 200,000200,000 – 500,000> 500 000
Source: USDA, 2010-
1,000
2,000
1980 1990 2000 2010
> 500,000
LAC Rice Consumption vs P l ti (1990 100)Population (1990=100)
160
Index of Population and Consumption (1990=100)
140
160
120
100Rising significance of Rice in LAC Food Basket
80
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Consumption Population
Can LAC Become the Next Rice Bowl?
Bi t d t• Biggest advantage:– Endowed with plenty of land and water.
• Bottleneck– Global market is small and unstable.– As it stands right now, LAC rice is not competitive in
the export market. • Although subsidies in many rice growing countries
make it even look worse– Inadequate infrastructure
What Needs to Happen?• What Needs to Happen?– LAC countries need to lower costs to $1,000 per
hectare and improve productivity to at least 7 tonnes/ha to be able to compete in the global markettonnes/ha to be able to compete in the global market (Calvert et al.)
– A stable global market and minimal distortions in rice trade.
From Major LAC Rice – Potential C t i R iCountries Requires…
• Long term policy commitment toLong term policy commitment to permanent expansion of rice sector
• Strategic vision for the development of g ppotential rice producing lands– Strategic assessments of relative investments
in new irrigated and savanna/cerrado lands• Long term commitment to research for
t i bl th i th i tsustainable growth in the rice sector– A science – based second Green Revolution
Stable policies for long term• Stable policies for long term competitiveness
From the Global Community…From the Global Community…
• Even handed subsidies and incentiveEven handed subsidies and incentive policies
• Mechanism to deal with trade disruptions and protectionist practices
• Access to real – time information on global production and trade
• A rice futures market and exchange?
Science – Based New Green Revolution?e o ut o
• Tap the revolutions in genetics, molecular biology and plant physiologybiology and plant physiology
• Link soils biology and chemistry to better understand and manipulate sustainable
t i t lnutrient supply• Exploit the explosion of computation capacity
and remote sensing to model systems and linkand remote sensing to model systems and link process at scales from the cellular through ecosystems and regions
• Proactively link the political and social dimensions of agriculture to technology developmentp
“The majority view, contending that more productive varieties were needed, led to
i i t t d i th t 25massive investment during the past 25 years in biotechnology and genetics and under-investment in crop management ”under-investment in crop management.
Rice Today, April-June 2007
What happened after the Green Revolution of the 1970s?Revolution of the 1970s?
My bet where yields would beWith no new varieties
After a doubling of yields, no major gains since the early 1980s
HOWEVER, that does not mean that advances were not made:
E. Pulver
Grain quality, growth duration, disease and insect resistance…
Latin American Fund for Irrigated Rice (FLAR)
So th So th platfo m that seeks s ne g in ice R & ESouth – South platform that seeks synergy in rice R & E
Established in 1995
Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil9032 Farms
1.1 million haFRONTEIRA
OESTE
PLANÍCIEDEPRESSÃO
1.084 Farm303.920 ha
PLANÍCIE COSTEIRA INTERNA
DEPRESSÃO CENTRAL
3.375 Farm158 445 ha
CAMPANHA PLANÍCIE COSTEIRA
158.445 ha
1.474 Farm129.155ha
ZONA SUL
COSTEIRA EXTERNA
1.371 Farm141.206 ha
1.127 Farm166.060 ha
SUL601 Farm
177.588 ha
Rio Grande do Sul 2000 status
Date of planting – 50% in Dec.Plant population – 150 – 200 kg seed/haPest/Disease
95% insecticide / herbicide2 applications of insecticidesUse of furadan widespread, environmental riskrisk 3 applications of fungicides, preventative
<100 kg N/ha, 100% in water, AE 15 kg grain/kg Ng g g gWater management – 50% after 30 daysAverage yield = 5.2 t/haYield growth 25 kg/ha/yr = 40 years for 1 t/ha
Precision Management Practices in Rio Grande do SulRio Grande do Sul
1. Plant early to maximize yield potential– Choose right variety; land preparation after harvest
2. Reduce seed rate to 70-80 kg/ha3. Preventive pest management
Seed coating (insecticide fungicide); fungicide (PI F)– Seed coating (insecticide, fungicide); fungicide (PI-F)
4. Preventive and early weed control:– Pure seed; Clearfield varieties, crop rotation– Herbicide at V3-V4
5. Balanced nutrition with high NUEBasal NPK placed with seed (2” x 2”)– Basal NPK placed with seed (2” x 2”)
– High N dose at V3-V4 on dry soil (pre-flood)– Topdress N at PI (airplane)
6. Irrigate early– Irrigate at V3-V4 and keep flooded
Harvest and recycle water
2009
2T/ha = 80 yrs!
Average cost of productiong p
33,48 33,0030,91
35,00 Custo unitário (R$/saco 50kg)
-- 21 8%21 8%
26,64
24,12
26,1930,00
21,8%21,8%
20,00
25,00
15,00
,
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
Instituto Rio Grandense do Arroz
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
Technically Possible for Latin A i t b C titiAmerica to be Competitive
• Technology is already present to raiseTechnology is already present to raise yields and reduce costs
• New science is available that will permit pfurther increases in yield potential and actual yield in the field
Is There the Political Will?Is There the Political Will?
A Look at Trends Over the LastA Look at Trends Over the Last Several Decades Suggests Not
Trend in Agricultural R&D Expenditures in Developing Countries, 1981-2006
LAC
Massive investments In Asia
Source: Public Agricultural Research in Latin America and the Caribbean by G. Stads and N. M. Beintema
Irrigation Investment in LACg1962-95 (IDB+WB))
1995-09 (WB only)
!
Source: Irrigation and Water Resources in Latin
¿!
Source: Irrigation and Water Resources in Latin America and the Caribbean: Challenges and Strategies by Ringer, Rosegrant and Paisner
Source: www.worldbank.org
Policies & MarketsPolicies & Markets
Can A Major Shift in Trade of a Major Crop Happen?
It Has Before…
Transformation of the Global S b M k tSoybean Market
100%
80%
40%
60%
20%
40%
0%70/71 73/74 76/77 79/80 82/83 85/86 88/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07
U it d St t B il A ti R t f th ldUnited States Brazil Argentina Rest of the world
Data Source: USDA
Emergence of Chinese Dependence on g pForeign Soybeans Was a Driver for Change
000 MT
40,000
50,000
30,000
10,000
20,000
0
70/71 74/75 78/79 82/83 86/87 90/91 94/95 98/99 02/03 06/07
Domestic consumption ImportsDomestic consumption Imports
Data Source: USDA
LAC Becoming the Next Rice Bowl!
Bi t d t• Biggest advantage:– Endowed with plenty of land and water.
• Bottleneck– Global market is too small and unstable.– As it stands right now, LAC rice is not
competitive in the export market. • Although subsidies in many rice growing
countries make it even look worse– Inadequate infrastructure
What Needs to Happen?• What Needs to Happen?– LAC countries need to lower costs to $1,000
per hectare and improve productivity to at least 7 tons/ha to be able to compete in theleast 7 tons/ha to be able to compete in the global market (Calvert et al.)
– A stable global market and minimal distortions in rice trade.
Human capacity will have to be rebuilt
In Summary…• We need productivity growth but that requires research,
development, dissemination Global food security depends on sustaining irrigated rice • Global food security depends on sustaining irrigated rice systems and probably opening new land
• Lessons from the Green Revolution: it DOES workLessons from the Green Revolution: it DOES work• The requirements for success are in place• Commitments to
the next generationof scientists
• Latin America can &must play a key role
Thank youThank you“Since the way to feed the world is not to bring more land under
cultivation, but to increase yields, science is crucial.”The Economist
“The Silent Tsunami”19 April 2008
Help us fill the world’s rice bowlsHelp us fill the world s rice bowls
Come join us!htt //i i /J i Uhttp://irri.org/JoinUs