Latest developments in global meat markets - C.R.P.A · 2014. 11. 6. · Dr. Claus Deblitz Turin, Italy 11.06.2014 Latest developments in global meat markets Thünen Institute of

Claus Deblitz

Dr. Claus Deblitz

Turin, Italy 11.06.2014

Latest developments in global meat markets

Thünen Institute of Farm Economics

Claus Deblitz

Content

1. agri benchmark

2. Consumption and production

3. Trade

4. Prices and their developments

5. Farm level results

6. Free trade (TTIP) between the US and the EU

11.06.2014 Latest developments in global meat markets Page 2

Claus Deblitz

The project behind the data and the people

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agri benchmark – understanding agriculture worldwide


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Target groups and relevance


• Address global challenges with global overview and systematic expertise locally

Non-profit organisations

• Align future production through benchmarking and positioning

Producers and their organisations

• Operate successfully through in-depth understanding of markets and customers

(Agri)Businesses

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Participating countries 2014

Contacts for further growth

Countries in the agri benchmark Network

11.06.2014 Page 6


New countries 2014 Paraguay (beef) Botswana (beef)

2014 Countries Farms

Cow-calf 25 58

Beef finishing 31 76

Sheep 18 35

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agri benchmark – the main elements


Network

Product branches

Data

Confe-rences

Capacity building

Know-how

Analysis and

projects

Coordination Main supporting partner

Clients

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Our research partners


http://www.lamolina.edu.pe/portada/http://www.cna.org.br/http://www.cepea.esalq.usp.br/english/http://www.agro.uba.ar/trad/english/index.shtmlhttp://www.afpc.tamu.edu/http://www.crpa.it/home/en/index.asphttp://www.argerind.at/

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Consumption and production

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Total meat consumption 2012 (1000 tonnes)

11.06.2014 Latest developments in global meat markets

Page 10

Source: FAOStat 2013

Claus Deblitz

Change of per capita consumption of beef 2010-2012 vs. 2000-2002 (kg per capita and year)

11.06.2014 Seite 11

Source: agri benchmark, national statistics


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

UY AR AU US FR IT AT ES UA PL

'00-'02

'10-'12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

BR IE UK RU ZA DE CN

'00-'02

'10-'12

Decrease Increase

+4% +9%

+13%

+18% +6%

+8% +8%

-55% -32%

-5%

-14%

Claus Deblitz

Change in beef consumption: a mixed situation - 1000 tonnes 2010 - 2012 vs. 2002-2004


Page 12


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China, Asia and Africa drive sheep meat consumption - change 1000 tonnes 2010 - 2012 vs. 2002 - 2004


Page 13


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And the winner of meat consumption is: poultry! - change (1000 tonnes) 2002 - 2004 vs. 2010 - 2012


Page 14


Claus Deblitz

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

OECD / FAO global meat production projections

11.06.2014 Page 15


million tonnes

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Beef and veal Pigmeat Poultry meat Sheepmeat

Source: OECD / FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022

Claus Deblitz

US remains biggest beef producer in 2012 (‘000 t)


Data for Sudan at FAOStat 2014 where change, value (1,000 t) for 2010 = 343, value for 2011 = 345., value for 2012 = 358


Claus Deblitz

Brazil and China driving beef production (‘000 t) - change 2010-2012 vs. 2000-2002


Source: FAOStat 2014, own calculations

Claus Deblitz

China dominates sheep production and expansion (‘000 t) - change 2010-2012 vs. 2000-2002

Latest developments in global meat markets Page 18

Source: FAOStat 2014, own calculations

11.06.2014

Claus Deblitz

Aquaculture overtook beef in 2012

Source: Earth Policy Institute based on FAO / USDA


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Aquaculture

Beef

million tonnes

Claus Deblitz

Trade

380

200

159

194

384

303

328

146

448

214

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Beef export volumes (‘000 t) ≠ export shares (export in % of production) – average 2010-2012


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000

BrazilAustralia

USAIndia

GermanyIrelandFrancePoland

UruguayArgentinaParaguay

UKItaly

ChinaSpain

AustriaMexico

NamibiaBotswana

Tausende

Exports '000 t

Export share %

Source: FAOStat, UNComtrade, PSD/FAS/USDA

Claus Deblitz

Beef import volumes (‘000 t) ≠ import shares (import in % of production) – average 2010-2012


0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

RussiaUSA

JapanEgypt

ItalyChina

FranceSouth Korea

GermanyUK

MexicoSpain

S. ArabiaIndonesia

ChileSwedenAustria

Tausende

Imports '000 t

Import share %


Claus Deblitz

Beef trade balances (exports - imports) (‘000 t) – average 2010-2012


-1.000 -500 0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000

BrazilAustralia

IndiaIreland

USAPoland

UruguayArgentinaParaguayGermany

BelarusS. Arabia

UKMexico

ChinaItaly

South KoreaEgyptJapan

Russia

Tausende


Claus Deblitz

Self-sufficiency of beef – average 2010-2012


0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600%

S. ArabiaSouth Korea

JapanEgypt

SwedenRussia

ChileItaly

IndonesiaCzech R.

UKGermany

BrazilAustriaBelarus

BotswanaUruguay

ParaguayAustralia

PolandNamibia

IrelandIndia


Self-sufficiency

Production Production – exports + imports

Claus Deblitz

Top 10 beef trade flows 2012 (‘000 tons)


345

167

235

171 196

160

IE > UK 190

169

Source: UNComtrade 2014

IN > VN 294

254

Claus Deblitz

Top 10 sheep trade flows 2012 (‘000 tons)


77

47

22

25

21

88

26 25

83 45

Source: UNComtrade 2014

68

Claus Deblitz

Prices

Claus Deblitz

FAO global meat price index

11.06.2014 Page 28


Index based on USD per ton prices

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Meat Price Index

Poultry Meat

Pig Meat

Bovine Meat

Ovine Meat

Source: FAO Meat price index

Claus Deblitz

OECD / FAO global meat price projections

11.06.2014 Page 29

Source: OECD / FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022


USD per ton

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Beef and veal Pigmeat Poultry meat Sheepmeat

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

Claus Deblitz

Beef prices rising (1997, 2005 and 2013)

11.06.2014 Page 30


Less than USD 5.00 per kg CW in 2013 USD 5.00 and higher per kg CW in 2013

0123456789

101112

Nam

ibia

Bra

zil

S. A

fric

a

Au

stra

lia

Ukr

ain

e

Arg

enti

na

Uru

guay

Po

lan

d

Can

ada

Cze

ch R

.

Ru

ssia

USA

'97 '05 '13

0123456789

1011

Ger

man

y

Au

stri

a

Sp

ain

Fra

nce

Sw

eden

Irel

and

UK

Ch

ina

Ital

y

Ind

on

esia

Tu

nis

ia

'97 '05 '13

Source: agri benchmark, national statistics

Claus Deblitz

Plant products with higher increase and more volatile than beef


Index year 2000 = 100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Average beef Average corn Average wheat Average soybean

Source: FAO Price data base http://www.fao.org/economic/est/prices

http://www.fao.org/economic/est/priceshttp://www.fao.org/economic/est/priceshttp://www.fao.org/economic/est/prices

Claus Deblitz

Farm level results

Claus Deblitz

Production systems in beef finishing

11.06.2014 Page 33

Feed % in

> 30%

> 30%

> 50% grains

> 30%

dry matter

pasture

silage and

and other

freshly cut grass

other forages

energy feed

& other vegetation

Management/

Outdoor

Closed or semi-

Confined, large,

Mix of pens and

Housing

year round or

open barns with

open pens,

grazing of paths

part of the year

slatted floors

partially with

and paddies

and/or straw bedding

sun-covers

Extent of

Low

Medium

High

Low

purchase feed

Pasture

Silage

Feedlot

Cut & Carry


Claus Deblitz

Daily weight gain and net gain by production system (net gain = carcass weight divided by age at slaughter)

g per day

11.06.2014 Page 34

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

ID-4

ID-2

CN

-94

0C

N-2

00

0A

R-6

30

ES-4

30

MX

-15

00

ES-5

20

ES-5

50

0A

R-2

6K

US-

72

00

PE-

17

00

CA

-28

KZA

-75

KB

W-2

00

0U

S-7

5K

ZA-3

00

0N

A-2

5K

BR

-15

50

AU

-15

K

BR

-34

0U

Y-7

5N

A-6

00

AU

-32

0B

R-6

00

BR

-54

0A

U-1

50

BR

-60

0B

BR

-50

AU

-37

5A

U-4

15

CO

-35

0C

O-1

30

CO

-16

0ID

-10

0A

R-3

80

AR

-80

0A

U-8

5IE

-40

UK

-80

NZ-

37

5A

U-5

40

UA

-27

5

KZ-

80

0U

K-4

5U

K-9

0P

L-3

0C

Z-5

00

PL-

20

UK

-75

0D

E-2

85

UA

-56

00

SE-2

30

CO

-80

0D

E-8

00

RU

-64

0D

E-2

80

FR-7

0C

N-3

00

CN

-15

0M

A-2

80

DE-

26

0D

E-5

25

TA

T-3

5A

T-2

5F

AT-

12

0TN

-45

CN

-70

FR-2

00

AT-

17

5T

IT-9

10

SE-1

00

IT-2

66

0T

FR-6

0SE

-15

0

Daily weight gain (g per day)

Net gain (g per day)

Pasture

Feedlot

Silage

Cu

t &

Cu

rry


Claus Deblitz

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

'05 '07 '09 '11 '13

South Africa

Australia

Austria

Spain

Germany

UK

Italy

France

Cost developments in beef production 2005-2013

11.06.2014 Page 35


USD per 100 kg carcass weight and increase in percent

'05 '07 '09 '11 '13

USA

Argentina

Poland

Argentina

Brazil

China

110 %

130 %

150 %

290 %

Claus Deblitz

Margin over cash costs (2005-2013)

11.06.2014 Page 36

USD per 100 kg carcass weight

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

IT-2660T

FR-70 DE-280

ES-5500

US-7200

CN-940

AR-380

BR-600

Returns

Cash costs


Claus Deblitz

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

AT-

25

FA

T-3

5A

T-1

20

AT-

17

5T

DE-

26

0D

E-2

80

DE-

28

5D

E-5

25

TD

E-8

00

FR-6

0FR

-70

FR-2

00

ES-4

30

ES-5

20

ES-5

50

0IT

-91

0IT

-26

60

TU

K-4

5U

K-8

0U

K-9

0U

K-7

50

IE-4

0SE

-10

0SE

-15

0SE

-23

0P

L-2

0P

L-3

0C

Z-5

00

UA

-27

5U

A-5

60

0R

U-6

40

CA

-28

KU

S-7

20

0U

S-7

5K

MX

-A

R-3

80

AR

-63

0A

R-8

00

AR

-26

KU

Y-7

5B

R-5

0B

R-3

40

BR

-54

0B

R-6

00

BR

-60

0B

BR

-15

50

CO

-13

0C

O-1

60

CO

-35

0C

O-8

00

PE-

17

00

CN

-70

CN

-30

0C

N-9

40

CN

-20

00

CN

-15

0ID

-2ID

-4ID

-10

0K

Z-8

00

AU

-85

AU

-15

0A

U-3

20

AU

-37

5A

U-4

15

AU

-54

0A

U-1

5K

NZ-

37

5M

A-2

80

TN-4

5ZA

-30

00

ZA-7

5K

NA

-60

0N

A-2

5K

BW

-

Opportunity costs

Cost from profit and loss account

Total returns

Mid-term profitable, long-term not (2013)

11.06.2014 Page 38


USD per 100 kg carcass weight

Europe Asia, Oceania

Americas

Africa

Claus Deblitz

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

AT-

25

FA

T-3

5A

T-1

20

AT-

17

5T

DE-

26

0D

E-2

80

DE-

28

5D

E-5

25

TD

E-8

00

FR-6

0FR

-70

FR-2

00

ES-4

30

ES-5

20

ES-5

50

0IT

-91

0IT

-26

60

TU

K-4

5U

K-8

0U

K-9

0U

K-7

50

IE-4

0SE

-10

0SE

-15

0SE

-23

0P

L-2

0P

L-3

0C

Z-5

00

UA

-27

5U

A-5

60

0R

U-6

40

CA

-28

KU

S-7

20

0U

S-7

5K

MX

-A

R-3

80

AR

-63

0A

R-8

00

AR

-26

KU

Y-7

5B

R-5

0B

R-3

40

BR

-54

0B

R-6

00

BR

-60

0B

BR

-15

50

CO

-13

0C

O-1

60

CO

-35

0C

O-8

00

PE-

17

00

CN

-70

CN

-30

0C

N-9

40

CN

-20

00

CN

-15

0ID

-2ID

-4ID

-10

0K

Z-8

00

AU

-85

AU

-15

0A

U-3

20

AU

-37

5A

U-4

15

AU

-54

0A

U-1

5K

NZ-

37

5M

A-2

80

TN-4

5ZA

-30

00

ZA-7

5K

NA

-60

0N

A-2

5K

% of opportunity cost in returns % of P&L cost in returns

Slightly better situation on whole-farm level

11.06.2014 Page 39

Percentage of costs in total returns

Europe

Asia, Oceania Americas Africa


Claus Deblitz

Free trade (TTIP) between the US and the EU

Claus Deblitz

The use of hormones and beta-agonists in the US is common practice

11.06.2014 Page 41

11,9

42,1

5,5

78,7

47,5

56,2

20,4

84,4

57,4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Hormones Hormones Beta-agonists Hormones Beta-agonists

Cow-calf (2008) Feedlots < 1000 capacity Feedlots > 1000 capacity

% farms / feedlots % cattle


75% of feeder cattle receive hormones 50% of feeder cattle receive beta-agonists

Claus Deblitz

The use of hormones and beta-agonists increases productivity and carcass yields

11.06.2014 Page 42

USD per 100 kg LW


Feedlot USA 75 000 sold

Unit With hormones Beta-agonists

w/o hormones Beta-agonists

Percentage change

Lower feed conversion rates

Kg feed

5.9 6.9 - 15 %

Higher daily weight gain

g per day

1 650 1 350 +22 %

Higher final live weight

Kg 580 540 + 7 %

Higher carcass yield

% 64.1 62.5 + 3 %

Higher carcass weight

Kg 370 335 + 9 %

Claus Deblitz

The increased performance results in a cost advantage of approximately 10 percent

11.06.2014 Page 43

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Beef returns Total cost Purchase feed Vet/med Other costs

w/o hormones / beta agonists

With hormones

With hormones / beta-agonists

USD per 100 kg CW


Claus Deblitz

Reflecting transpost costs and the non-use of growth promoters brings US-cosrts close to EU price level

11.06.2014 Page 44

US 1) Total costs in 2012 (with growth promoters)

US 2) = 1) + Transport cost Nebraska - Hamburg

US 3) = 2) + Additional cost without growth promoters

0

100

200

300

400

500

600U

S 1)

US

2)

US

3)

PL-

30

DE

-285

CZ-

50

0

ES-

550

0

ES-

490

UK-

90

FR-2

00

DE

-280

FR-6

0

AT-

35

AT-

12

0

FR-7

0

IT-9

10

SE-1

50

SE-2

30

Additional costs w/o growth promoters)

Transport Nebraska - Hamburg

Costs in 2012 (with growth promoters)

Beef price in 2012

US-75KUSD per 100 kg CW


Claus Deblitz

Summary

11.06.2014 Page 45


China, Asia, Africa and South America (Argentina) drive consumption

China and Brazil drive beef production

Rally of beef and livestock prices slowed down

The world is getting closer in prices and costs of beef production

Beef production is short- to mid-term profitable, long-term not

Changes of CAP-reform leads to income losses

Free trade EU-US not expected to have negative impacts on EU-beef production

Claus Deblitz

agri benchmark – passionate about facts

11.06.2014 Page 46

Dr. Claus Deblitz Thünen Institute of Farm Economics Bundesallee 50 38116 Braunschweig, Germany


Tel.: +49-531-596-5141 Fax: +49-531-596-5199 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: www.agribenchmark.org www.ti.bund.de/bw

Documents

Latest developments in global meat markets - C.R.P.A · 2014. 11. 6. · Dr. Claus Deblitz Turin, Italy 11.06.2014 Latest developments in global meat markets Thünen Institute of