Last Week’s Closes Did Not Confirm a Double Top

8/7/2019 Last Weeks Closes Did Not Confirm a Double Top

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks

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Apri l 18, 2011 Last Week s Closes Did Not Confir m a Double Top

Confirming a double top for stocks between the February 18 th highs and the April 6th highs

requires weekly closes below the five-week modified moving averages at 12,200 Dow IndustriaAverage, 1314.1 S&P 500, 2753 NASDAQ, 2312 NASDAQ 100 (NDX), 5206 Dow Transports,824.09 Russell 2000, 438.08 SOX. Stocks should grind higher into the April 27 FOMC meeting.

Stocks Remain Overvalued Fundamentally We are no longer operating under a ValuEngineValuation Watch, which occurs when more than 60% of all stocks are overvalued. Today 58.2% of allstocks are overvalued. All 16 sectors are overvalued with 4 by double-digit percentages. A ValuEngineValuation Warning occurs when more than 65% of all stocks are overvalued. The last time we had aValuEngine Valuation Warning was February 18th.

10-Year Note (3.408) Daily, annual and quarterly value levels are 3.511, 3.796 and 4.016 withweekly, monthly, annual, and semiannual risky levels at 3.271, 3.181, 2.690, 2.441, and 2.322. The

yield is below the 200-week simple moving average at 3.537 a flight to quality indication.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


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Comex Gold ($1488.2) Semiannual and annual value levels are $1452.6 and $1356.5 with a dailypivot at $1480.9, and weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1497.0, $1523.7 and $1559.9.

Weekly chart is overbought with a new all time high this morning at $1489.7.


Nymex Crude Oil ($109.50) Annual and monthly value levels are $101.92, $101.09 and $99.91 withsemiannual and daily pivots at $107.14 and $110.08, and quarterly and weekly risky levels at $114.27

$120.52 and $125.22. The weekly chart is overbought.



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The Euro (1.4424) My monthly value level is 1.4170 with a quarterly pivot at 1.4308, and daily,weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4616, 1.4620 and 1.4624. The weekly chart is overbought

and the euro has had a problem of closing above 1.4500.


Weekly Dow: (12,342) The weekly chart shows overbought MOJO and is thus positive with the Dowabove its 5-week modified moving average at 12,200. We need a weekly close above my monthlyrisky level at 12,481 to indicate upside potential to my quarterly and annual risky levels at 13,774 and

13,890. A weekly close below 12,200 indicates risk to my annual value level at 11,491.



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S&P 500 (1319.7) My weekly value level is 1287.7 with a daily pivot at 1312.7 and the February 18 th

high at 1344.07, and monthly risky level at 1360.0. My quarterly value level is 1277.7.

NASDAQ (2765) My weekly value level is 2670 with a daily pivot at 2752 and the February 18 th highat 2840.51, and monthly risky level at 2898.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2308) My weekly value level is 2235 with a daily pivot at 2304 with the 50-daysimple moving average at 2323, the February 16th high at 2403.52, and monthly, annual and quarterlyrisky levels at 2477, 2590 and 2685.

Dow Utilities (416.07) My semiannual value level is 397.84 with daily and weekly pivots at 411.99and 413.77, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 423.25 and 448.17.

Dow Transports (5285) Daily, annual and weekly value levels are 5191, 5179 and 5077 with my

monthly risky level at 5371. The high for the move is 5404.33 set on Friday, April 1st

.

Russell 2000 (834.99) Daily, weekly, annual and quarterly value levels are 818.25, 815.38, 784.16and 778.81 with monthly risky level at 856.67. Set a new high for the move at 859.08 on April 6th.

The SOX (431.23) My weekly value level is 405.31 with a daily pivot at 430.87, the 50-day simplemoving average at 443.43, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 452.34 and 498.75.

Definition of MOJO This is my term for technical momentum. I use whats called 12x3x3 slowstochastic readings from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.comI have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters awell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the

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I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

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Last Week’s Closes Did Not Confirm a Double Top