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Julius Baer Research | Please find important legal information at the end of this document.
1/14
MONDAY, 06 MARCH 2017; 08:47 CET
MARKET UPDATE
US equities closed marginally higher last Friday as hawkish
comments from Fed speakers took centre stage. Weakness
in Treasuries led to financials outperforming while yield
plays underperformed. The S&P added 0.1% and the DJIA
ended flat to close at 2,383 and 21,006 respectively.
European equities inched lower last Friday as markets
awaited commentary from US Federal Reserve Chair Janet
Yellen amid generally lacklustre corporate updates. The
Stoxx 600 dipped 0.1% to close at 375.23. Asian markets
traded with the Nikkei down 0.4% and the Hang Seng up
0.2%.
Weihao Chen
TOP STORIES
The week ahead: Happy birthday! And thanks to central
bankers
This week marks the eight-year anniversary of the 2009 bull
market in stocks – seemingly one of longest ones on record.
The birthday party will pave the way to assessing the odds of
a continuation. In particular the manufacturers of this asset
boom, central banks, are in the spotlight. The European
central bank is first with its regular policy meeting on Thurs-
day, and the Federal Reserve will follow next week. Last but
not least, the US employment report will show whether the
rampant job creation signalled last time around is likely to
continue.
Eight years and counting. The bull market in (US)
stocks goes into year nine. Central bankers will be
watched closely on whether the party may continue.
Christian Gattiker, CFA, CAIA
Economic events today
Time (CET)
Ctry Event Period Survey Prior
07:25 CH Swiss National Bank Annual Results
16:00 US Factory Orders (M/M) Jan 1.0% 1.3%
DAILY WIRE
Latest equity updates
Eni: Buy
Price/Target:EUR15.27/17
Eni’s Q4 total hydrocarbon
production stood at 1,856
thousand barrels of oil
equivalent per day
(kboe/d; -1.5% y/y, 1%
above consensus).
Management provided its
target for 2017-2020 and
expects upstream
production to grow at a 3%
CAGR.
SUEZ: Buy
Price/Target:
EUR13.09 /15.50
Sales increased 1.2% y/y
to EUR15.3bn (+1.1% y/y
organically) driven by
improvement in
international revenues.
For 2017, management
expects revenues and EBIT
to grow marginally y/y on
organic basis.
Latest publications
Currency Portfolio:
Dollar rally to resume
After the US dollar rally
paused last month, more
aggressive rate-hiking
expectations are triggering
resumption.
The Julius Baer FX
Judgment portfolio
delivered a positive return
thanks to the weakness of
the Turkish lira.
NEXT GENERATION
Cybersecurity
Enterprises have to
safeguard their growing
digital assets from rising
malicious threats.
We expect to see
continued growth in
spending for IT security.
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nextgeneration
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Research publications for
further information.
Last ∆1d YTD
MSCI World 1849.0 0.0% 5.6%
S&P 500 2383.1 0.1% 6.4%
Dow Jones 21005.7 0.0% 6.3%
Nasdaq 5870.8 0.2% 9.1%
Euro Stoxx 50 3403.4 0.6% 3.4%
Dax 30 12027.4 -0.3% 4.8%
FTSE 100 7374.3 -0.1% 3.2%
CAC 40 4995.1 0.6% 2.7%
SMI 8670.1 0.1% 5.5%
SPI 9541.4 0.1% 6.4%
Nikkei 225 19379.1 -0.5% 1.4%
Kospi 2081.4 0.1% 2.7%
Hang Seng 23606.5 0.2% 7.3%
Shanghai Comp. 3233.9 0.5% 4.2%
Russia RTS 1113.7 0.5% -3.4%
India Sensex 30 29010.0 0.6% 9.0%
Brazil Bovespa 66785.5 1.4% 10.9%
Spot +3mE +12mE
EUR/USD 1.06 1.04 1.05
USD/JPY 113.8 118.0 120.0
EUR/GBP 0.86 0.86 0.92
GBP/USD 1.23 1.21 1.14
EUR/CHF 1.07 1.05 1.05
USD/CHF 1.01 1.01 1.00
EUR/SEK 9.53 9.35 9.20
EUR/NOK 8.95 9.00 9.30
USD/CAD 1.34 1.35 1.36
AUD/USD 0.76 0.73 0.72
NZD/USD 0.70 0.70 0.68
USD/BRL 3.12 3.30 3.80
USD/CNY 6.90 7.10 7.20
USD/INR 66.76 67.50 69.00
Last ∆1d +12mE
Gold 1234.6 0.0% 1150.0
Silver 18.0 1.2% 15.0
Platinum 999.8 1.2% 1050.0
Palladium 775.5 1.0% 700.0
Aluminium 1883.8 -1.0% 1750.0
Copper 5905.8 -0.2% 4600.0
Iron Ore (62% Fe) 91.3 -1.1% 60.0
Crude oil (Brent) 55.9 1.5% 47.5
Natural gas (US) 2.83 0.8% 2.80
Corn (cts/bushel) 374.8 0.3% 400
Wheat 4.34 0.2% 475 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer
Data as of: 06/03/2017; 08:35 CET; E=estimate
Equity markets
Currencies
Commodities
DAILY WIRE | MONDAY, 06 MARCH 2017; 08:47 CET 2/14
EQUITIES
Flughafen Zurich (Hold, Price/Target: CHF204.1/190): Solid 2016 results
Revenues increased 2.4% y/y to CHF1.0bn, in line with consensus, with revenues in the
aviation business up 3.9% y/y to CHF620m and flat y/y at CHF392m in the non-aviation
business. Passenger volumes at the Zurich airport were solid, reaching more than 27m for
the first time. Excluding one-off effects, EBITDA grew 3.8% y/y to CHF568m, EBIT was up
2.3% y/y to CHF327m and net profit increased 11.2% y/y to CHF240m, all in line with
consensus. The board proposes a dividend of CHF6.4 per share (regular and special
dividend of CHF3.2 each) to be paid out of capital contribution reserves vs. a dividend of
CHF6.2 in 2015 and in line with consensus. Management issued solid 2017 guidance,
expecting passenger growth of some 4% y/y, slightly higher y/y revenues, a stable y/y
EBITDA excluding one-off effects and a slightly higher y/y net profit (including noise-
related items), broadly confirming current consensus forecasts.
2016 results were solid and in line with consensus. The 2017 guidance suggests only
minor changes to consensus forecasts. We maintain our Hold rating.
Britta Simon, CEFA
Deutsche Bank (Hold, Price/Target: EUR19.14/17): EUR8bn equity capital increase,
uncertainty on capital largely removed, but material EPS dilution
Deutsche Bank (DB) announced yesterday to raise EUR8bn equity via a rights issue, which
looks about EUR3bn above consensus. Moreover, DB will raise c. EUR2bn over the next two
years from asset disposals and a 25% IPO of Deutsche Asset Management (DeAM).
Moreover, management is committed to further material cost savings with EUR2bn net
decrease in adjusted cost base from 2016 to 2018, and a further EUR1bn net to 2021. As a
new long-term target, management aims to achieve a return on tangible book value of 10%,
while no time frame was given. DB expects that the equity tier-1 ratio will be boosted to
14.1% (vs. 11.9% year-end) and set a new target of “comfortably above” 13%, which we
believe should have largely removed capital concerns on DB. DB will issue 687 million of new
shares, increasing total shares by 49% to about 2,086 million. We arrive at a tangible book
value per share of around EUR28 including the capital increase before further restructuring
and litigation costs this year. We roughly estimate a 20% dilution of EPS, including the
rights offering, the dilution from DeAM IPO and the benefits from further reducing
operating costs, while we do not assume revenue declines as occurred with cost-cutting in
recent years.
The EUR8bn increase should largely remove the investors’ capital concerns, as the
14.1% is now ca. 100bps above European peer average. However, the estimated EPS
dilution of 20% is significant with an estimated P/E 2018E in the area of 11x, which is
ca. 20% above peer levels. On aggregate we keep our EUR17 price target and shares
are expected to trade lower given the higher-than-expected amount of capital
raised.
Roger Degen
Peugeot (Hold, Price/Target: EUR19.06/18): PSA GM Europe deal looks positive vs.
expectations at first sight
Peugeot (PSA) just announced details of the GM Europe (not listed) transaction. Apparently
both parties agreed on the deal and the major transaction metrics including the valuation of
GM Europe (EUR2.2bn of which EUR1.3bn for the auto business and 0.9bn for the financial
services division). According to the press release the valuation of the auto business is 7%
EV/Sales FY 2017E and 0.8x P/B for the financial services unit. PSA pays EUR0.8bn in
shares and the rest in cash. Additionally, it seems that all pension obligations assumed by
PSA will be fully funded. With regard to the German plants, current agreements will remain
in place, which will not allow lay-offs until FY 2021. For all other countries including the UK
there will be plant-by-plant agreements.
At first sight this looks positive to us as all major deal metrics look better than
expected, mainly the price of the auto business (around 35% below expectations)
and the funding of the pension obligations. Long-term we remain sceptical
regarding the strategic logic of the deal.
Patrik Lang, CFA
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Spot +3mE +12mE
US Fed Funds 0.75 1.00 1.75
ECB Main Refi. Rate 0.00 0.00 0.00
BoJ Overnight 0.10 -0.10 -0.10
UK Base Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25
SNB 3m CHF-Libor -0.75 -0.75 -0.75
10y government bond yields
Spot +3mE +12mE
US 10y T-Notes 2.48 2.90 2.55
Euro 10y Bund 0.34 0.60 0.40
Japan 10y Gov't 0.07 0.00 0.00
UK 10y Gilts 1.19 1.50 1.20
Swiss Conf. 10y -0.13 0.20 0.10
Growth (real, % year-on-year)
2015 2016E 2017E
World 3.4 3.1 3.3
United States 2.6 1.6 2.5
Eurozone 1.9 1.7 1.6
Germany 1.7 1.9 1.5
United Kingdom 2.2 1.8 1.4
Switzerland 0.8 1.4 1.6
Japan 1.3 1.0 1.1
China 6.9 6.7 6.5
India 7.2 7.0 6.0
Brazil -3.8 -3.5 0.0
2015 2016E 2017E
World 2.8 2.9 3.3
US 0.1 1.3 2.4
Eurozone 0.0 0.2 1.8
Germany 0.1 0.4 1.9
UK 0.1 0.6 1.8
Switzerland -1.1 -0.4 0.6
Japan 0.8 -0.1 0.5
China 1.4 2.0 2.1
India 4.9 4.5 5.0
Brazil 9.0 8.7 5.0 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer
Central bank policy rate
Data as of: 06/03/2017; 08:35 CET; E=estimate
Inflation (% year-on-year)
DAILY WIRE | MONDAY, 06 MARCH 2017; 08:47 CET 3/14
WPP (Buy, Price/Target: GBp1759/2000 – under review): Weaker outlook for FY 2017
organic top-line growth
WPP reported solid FY 2016 figures last Friday, broadly in line with consensus expectations.
FY organic growth was at 3.1%, in line with consensus. Operating profit was slightly ahead
of consensus and EPS stood at GBp113.2, up 21% y/y, 2% ahead of consensus. The results
publication was, however, dominated by a more cautious guidance from management for
organic top-line growth, which led to a harsh negative stock price reaction of -7.95% on
Friday. The company is now expecting to grow top-line only by 2% in FY 2017 (compared to
consensus estimates at 3%), driven by general pricing pressure in the market and two large
account losses in the automotive and telecom industry in Q4 2016 and Q1 2017.
We expect lower organic top-line growth for FY 2017, but do not expect any
structural issues for WPP. We see last Friday’s share price weakness as overdone and
continue to see WPP as well positioned within European media, as it has the ability to
grow across its different segments in an evolving media environment.
Barbara Elbel
Standard Life (Hold, Price/Target: GBp378.5/400): Merger talks with Aberdeen
Following recent press speculation Standard Life this morning confirmed that it is planning
to take over Aberdeen (not covered) in a deal of which Aberdeen shareholders would own
one-third and Standard Life shareholders two-thirds of the combined group. The merger
between the two companies will create UK’s largest asset manager and will be nicely
earnings accretive (assuming possible cost synergies of up to GBp of 200m would be
achieved as speculated in the press). The merger will furthermore accelerate Standard Life’s
transformation into a more capital-light investment and savings products company and
result in a possible re-rating of the shares of Standard Life considering that up to 70% of the
group’s earnings would stem from asset management activities following such a deal.
The announced merger between Standard Life and Aberdeen looks attractive from a
strategic and financial point of view. We expect a positive price reaction of Standard
Life’s shares and are reviewing our investment case on Standard Life.
Patrick Jnglin, CFA
Galaxy Entertainment (Hold, Price/Target: HKD 38.6/38.0): A strong defence against
new competition
Galaxy Entertainment (GEG) reported solid results for Q4 with an increasing market share
despite two new hotels that opened in Cotai. The mass market maintained mid-teen gross
gaming revenue (GGR) growth, while VIP GGR finally turned positive. Q4 revenues rose 8%
y/y (+11% q/q) to HKD14.4bn and the improving trend has been stronger than those of Q3
and Q2. Adjusted EBITDA was up 20% y/y (vs. +28% y/y in Q3) to HKD3.0bn, implying a
margin expansion of 200bps y/y to 20.6% (-10bps q/q). For the full year, net profits rose
51% y/y to HKD6.3bn. The group’s balance sheet remains healthy, with a net cash position
of HKD16.7bn as of 31 December 2016. The industry recently reported strong GGR growth
of 10.6% y/y for January and February on a combined basis, which should set a strong base
of revenue and earnings momentum for the industry in H1 2017.
Despite the strong Q4 result, we expect the upcoming projects of Galaxy Macau
phases 3 and 4 to weigh heavily on GEG’s FCF and cap its dividend upside. We
maintain our Hold rating with a revised price target of HKD38 (an implied 15.5x
EV/EBITDA).
Eric Mak, CFA
DAILY WIRE | MONDAY, 06 MARCH 2017; 08:47 CET 4/14
China paper sector: Enjoy the high margins while you can
Containerboard paper prices have further increased in the last few months. According to the
National Bureau of Statistics of China, Commodities Corrugated Paper (High Strength)
price has surged ca. 55% since November 2016 to CNY4,000 per tonne. We believe that this
is the favourable outcome of a combination of an uplift in seasonal demand and a structural
reduction in industry supply (driven by the government-led shutdown of outdated
production capacities in 2015 to control pollution), thereby giving containerboard
manufacturers stronger pricing power. As seen in recent corporate earnings results, we
observe that industry leaders, including Nine Dragons Paper (Hold, Price/Target:
HKD9.87/10.2) and Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing (Buy, Price/Target: HKD6.80/7.7), are
able to raise prices not only to offset raw material cost hikes but also to earn higher net
dollar margin. We believe the elevated product price is sustainable as entry barriers in terms
of getting government environmental approval and bank financing for new capacities are
high. Nevertheless, we believe the unusually high dollar margin is unsustainable as raw
material price could continue to rise, demand could weaken as the downstream box makers
are struggling with paper cost pressure, and additional approved capacity will commence
production later in 2017.
We apply the same mid-cycle P/E valuation multiple of 10x to forward earnings to
arrive at our price targets, and we find more upside return for Lee & Man Paper as a
result. As such, we recently downgraded Nine Dragons Paper to Hold.
Irene Chow, CFA
United Overseas Bank (Upgrade to Buy, Price/Target: SGD21.54/23.3): A laggard
with catch-up potential
United Overseas Bank (UOB) reported a modest Q4 earnings beat, and is perceived as
posting the best Q4 results among the three local banks. Asset quality issues – while still a
focus for many investors – appear to be incrementally improving. The non-performing loan
(NPL) ratio declined 10bps q/q to 1.5% in Q4, while new NPL formation declined to 0.7% of
average loans in Q4 (Q3: 1.5%). UOB’s coverage ratio remains healthy at 118.0% (Q3:
112%). The group booked specific provisions of SGD969m for FY 2016, offset by a
SGD398m reversal in general provisions (GP), resulting in percentage of general provision
reserves to total loans declining to 1.2% (FY2015: 1.4%). While the decision to reverse GP
has drawn a mixed response from investors, UOB is in a position to do so due to its above-
average GP to loans ratio vs. peers. Oil and gas (O&G) loans totalled SGD11bn in Q4 (5% of
loan book) vs. SGD9.2bn in Q3, mainly due to higher lending to national oil companies and
traders rather than the vulnerable services segment. NPL ratio for the O&G services book is
in the mid-teens with provision coverage of close to 50%. Management does not rule out
further stress in the portfolio, but is comfortable that current provisions should lower the
likelihood of future negative shocks.
We are comfortable that high provisioning levels for the oil and gas services book
should reduce the risk of future negative shocks. We upgrade our rating to Buy. The
stock is not expensive at 1.04x P/B – in line with the 2-year mean and one standard
deviation below the 5-year. We see potential for a catch-up trade, given its
underperformance vs. peers this year.
Jen-Ai Chua
DAILY WIRE | MONDAY, 06 MARCH 2017; 08:47 CET 5/14
Stock of the week
Unicredit (Buy, Price/Target: EUR13.98/16): Much improved earnings visibility
following Q4 clean-up and completed capital increase
Unicredit completed its EUR13bn equity capital increase, after taking a EUR13.6bn net loss
in Q4, which includes EUR8.1bn extra loan loss provisions and EUR1.7bn of restructuring
costs. As a result recurring loan losses will be much lower going forward (management
targets a cost of credit of 49bps in percentage of loans in 2019E versus 89bps in 2015).
Absolute costs should come down by around 13% from 2015 levels, most of which should
come through already in 2018.
On aggregate, management targets a minimum return on tangible equity of 9% by
2019E with a net profit of EUR4.7bn or an EPS of around EUR2.1 (implies a P/E 2019E
of 6.6x). Following the completed capital increase, we regard the current share price
level as a good entry point.
Roger Degen
FIXED INCOME
Philippine peso slides to a more than 10-year low against the USD The Philippine (Hold/Opportunistic) peso (PHP) has been declining against the USD,
breaching a support level of 50 against the USD about two weeks ago and touching 50.395
last Friday, the weakest since September 2006. The fall in the currency has been attributed
to capital outflows triggered by political risks, as well as the prospect of an imminent hike in
US interest rates and a widening trade deficit. Apart from the controversial extrajudicial
killing of drug offenders and potential weakening relations with the US, President Rodrigo
Duterte is facing accusations of PHP2bn of illegal wealth, as well as leading a group that
executed extrajudicial killings as mayor of Davao. Philippines is also currently in the process
of reviewing the reimplementation of the death penalty, which has received international
criticism on the grounds of human rights. Politics aside, the central bank expects current
account surplus to narrow to 0.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year (USD800m),
from an estimated 0.8% of GDP in 2016 (USD2.5bn). Nonetheless, the weakening current
account is being driven by strong import growth, which is underpinned by robust domestic
consumption and investment. Furthermore, its external position remains strong, with low
external debt to GDP of about 26% and foreign exchange reserves of USD81bn. The
government has pushed forward a tax reform package, which is projected to pass in H1
2017, is expected to raise government revenues and boost consumption as personal income
tax is lowered while the value-added tax base is broadened. Philippine equities have seen a
net outflow of USD122.1m this year by foreign funds as investor confidence is shaken, which
outweighs the USD83.4m inflow over the past year. The front end of the USD Philippine
sovereign bond curve has moved up by about 24bps from a month ago as of Friday.
As long as inflation stays below 4% (was 2.7% in January but risks is to the upside due
to the adjustment in electricity rates and impact of the government’s fiscal
programme), the Philippine central bank may postpone its rate hike to H2 2017.
While the PHP is likely to weaken further against the USD as uncertainties persist
and USD strength continues, domestic demand is expected to stay strong supported
by resilient household consumption, increased fiscal spending and ample credit and
liquidity while reserves remain sufficient for central bank intervention, if necessary.
Magdalene Teo
DAILY WIRE | MONDAY, 06 MARCH 2017; 08:47 CET 6/14
COMMODITIES
Iron ore and steel: Headwinds from China’s National Party Congress
China’s annual National Party Congress started yesterday and the early news flow has not
been supportive to the iron ore and steel markets. Singapore-traded iron ore is down 3.3%
this morning while China-traded steel has lost around 1%. The Chinese government has
lowered this year’s growth target slightly while reiterating its focus on stability and supply-
side reforms. Stability mainly refers to the property market, targeting leverage as well as
persistent oversupply in lower-tier cities. Against this backdrop, property-related steel
demand is unlikely to improve in our view. Supply-side reforms remain centred around
overcapacities in heavy industries such as coal and steel. This year’s target for steel capacity
closures is set at 50 million tonnes, compared to a reduction of 65 million tonnes last year.
That said, Chinese steel production last year was up around 1% and a recent report from
Greenpeace suggests that capacity had actually risen. Hence, we continue to believe that
the official capacity closure targets are not very useful in determining the supply and
demand dynamics in the iron ore and steel markets. China’s ongoing transition from
investment-led to consumption-led growth should become a renewed drag on iron ore and
steel demand over the coming years after last year’s rally in iron ore and steel prices was
mainly driven by restocking along the steel value chain. We continue to believe that prices
have moved well ahead of fundamentally justified levels and reiterate our cautious view.
News flow from China’s National Party Congress has caused headwinds to iron ore
and steel prices. Lower growth and a focus on stability point towards a slightly
weaker demand backdrop this year while over the coming years, China’s transition
from investment-led to consumption-led growth should become a drag on demand.
Carsten Menke, CFA
DAILY WIRE | MONDAY, 06 MARCH 2017; 08:47 CET 7/14
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
(SHORT-TERM INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS)
Legal note: Technical analysis may be inconsistent with and reach
different conclusions to fundamental analysis.
Gold peaks at 40-week average – buy the opposite – US biotech
Gold failed at the 40-week (200-day) moving average last week. At
the same time the momentum indicator is slowing down. Thus, we
still prefer to interpret the rally from the January lows as a bear
market rally. Thus, a decline below 1,210 will confirm a medium-
term peak and open the way towards a re-test of the 2015 lows. If
gold peaks, then the opposite might do well, biotech. As seen on
the chart the relative performance broke down already in Q4 of last
year. Thus, we recommend investors not only hold their biotech
exposure, which has been up 25% since 22 March 2016, but to even
add to their exposure if excessive cash is available.
Gold continues its medium-term peak. We recommend
investors stay short. Investors holding excessive cash could
add to their biotech positions.
Mensur Pocinci, MFTA
Gold - weekly bar chart
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer Please see information on abbreviations/charts at the end of the document.
Last Trend Sup Res 5d%
S&P500 2383 2240 2400 0.7
Nasdaq100 5373 5100 5380 0.6
DAX 30 12027 10900 12080 1.9
SMI 8670 7650 8750 1.7
EuroStoxx50 3403 3080 3560 3.0
Nikkei 225 19379 18200 20000 1.4
T-Note Future * 124.33 122.30 132.80 -0.6
Bund Future * 164.26 158.50 166.20 -1.1
Dollar Index 101.44 94.10 102.40 0.3
EUR/USD 1.0598 1.0500 1.0840 0.1
USD/CHF 1.0093 0.9640 1.0250 0.0
EUR/CHF 1.0696 1.0600 1.0850 -0.1
USD/JPY 113.82 106.00 115.80 -1.0
WTI crude oil * 52.90 52.00 56.50 -2.1
Gold 1232 1210 1310 -1.7
Last Entry Stop Since PnL
Nasdaq100 5373 4077 3760 16 Feb 31.8%
Apple ** 139.78 98.84 89.00 18 Feb 43.2%
NYSE Biotech Index 3595 2874 2400 22 Mar 25.1%
Swatch Group 336.60 314.00 240 22 Dec 7.2%
Last Entry Stop Since PnL
Silver (Short) 17.80 16.46 19.00 9 Jan -7.5%
GBP/JPY (long) 139.6 143.8 135.0 2 Dec -2.9%
USD / CHF (Long) 1.0093 0.9973 0.9280 5 Nov 1.2%
EUR/USD (Short) 1.0598 1.1345 1.2000 20 Jun 7.0%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer
** Dividends included in the PnL* continued contract
Technical Analysis: Medium-term trends
Equity Recommendations
Fixed income, currencies and commodities
Data as of: 06/03/2017; 08:35 CET
2015 2016 2017
-10
0
10
1100
1200
1300
1400
1.5
2.0
Momentum
Gold
(40-week MAV)
Rel. to
US Biotech
DAILY WIRE | MONDAY, 06 MARCH 2017; 08:47 CET 8/14
IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION
This publication constitutes investment research and has been produced by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, which is authorised and regulated
by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). This publication series is issued regularly. Information on financial instruments and
issuers is updated irregularly or in response to important events.
IMPRINT
Authors
Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, [email protected] 1)
Carsten Menke, Commodity Research, [email protected] 1)
Patrik Lang, Head Equity Research, [email protected] 1)
Roger Degen, Equity Research, [email protected] 1)
Barbara Elbel, Equity Research, [email protected] 1)
Patrick Jnglin, Equity Research, [email protected] 1)
Britta Simon, Equity Research, [email protected] 1)
Heinz Rüttimann, Strategy Research, [email protected] 1)
Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, [email protected] 1)
Jen-Ai Chua, Equity Research Asia, [email protected] 3)
Siew Siew Magdalene Teo, Fixed Income Research Asia, [email protected] 3)
Weihao Chen, Equity Research, [email protected] 3)
Irene Chow, Equity Research Asia, [email protected] 4)
Eric Mak, Equity Research Asia, [email protected] 4)
1) This analyst is employed by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, which is authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority
(FINMA).
3) This analyst is employed by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Singapore branch, which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
4) This analyst is employed by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Hong Kong branch, which holds a full banking license issued by the Hong Kong Monetary
Authority under the Banking Ordinance (Chapter 155 of the Laws of Hong Kong SAR). The Bank is also a registered institution under the Securities
and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong SAR) to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities) and
Type 9 (asset management) regulated activities with Central Entity number AUR302.
APPENDIX
Analyst certification
The analysts hereby certify that views about the companies discussed in this report accurately reflect their personal view about the companies and securities.
They further certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly linked to the specific recommendations or views in this report.
Methodology
Please refer to the following link for more information on the research methodology used by Julius Baer analysts:
www.juliusbaer.com/research-methodology
Structure
References in this publication to Julius Baer include subsidiaries and affiliates. For additional information on our structure, please refer to the following link:
www.juliusbaer.com/structure
Price information
Unless otherwise stated, the price information reflects the closing price of the previous trading day.
Disclosure
No specific disclosures
DAILY WIRE | MONDAY, 06 MARCH 2017; 08:47 CET 9/14
Frequently used terms and abbreviations
BoAML Bank of America Merrill Lynch Boe/d Barrels of oil equivalent per day CAGR Compound annual growth
rate
c.c. Constant currencies CFF Cash flow from financing CFI Cash flow from investing
CFO Cash flow from operation Consensus
rating
The analysts’ opinions on the
security. It shows the number of
analysts covering the security
and the breakdown between
Buy, Hold and Sell ratings.
Consensus
target
The average price to which analysts
expect the security to rise.
CPI Consumer price index DCF Discounted cash flow E Estimate
EBIT Earnings before interest and taxes EBITDA Earnings before interest, taxes,
depreciation and amortisation
EM Emerging markets
EPS Earnings per share EV Enterprise value FCF Free cash flow
Fed Federal Reserve, the US central bank FFO Funds from operation FY Fiscal year
GAAP Generally accepted accounting
principles
GDP Gross domestic product Ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, a
German economic research institute
IMF International Monetary Fund KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle der
ETH Zürich (Swiss Economic
Institute)
MAV Moving average
MV Market value NAV Net asset value NII Net interest income
PBoC People’s Bank of China P/B Price-to-book value P/E Price-to-earnings ratio
PEG P/E divided by year-on-year EPS
growth
PEG Price/earnings-to-growth ratio PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index
q/q Quarter on quarter RCF Retained cash flow REIT Real Estate Investment Trust
ROE Return on equity y/y Year on year ZEW Zentrum für Europäische
Wirtschaftsforschung (German Centre
for European Economic Research)
Equity research
Equity rating allocation as of 06/03/2017
Buy 31.5% Hold 65.7% Reduce 2.8%
Julius Baer does not provide investment banking services to the companies covered by Research.
Equity rating history as of 06/03/2017
Company Rating History
Deutsche Bank Hold Since 08/02/2012
Eni Buy Since 03/10/2016
Hold Since 05/08/2009
Flughafen Zurich Hold (initiation of coverage) Since 16/06/2016
Galaxy Entertainment Hold Since 20/10/2015
Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing Buy (initiation of coverage) Since 19/05/2016
Nine Dragons Paper Hold Since 28/02/2017
Buy (initiation of coverage) Since 24/06/2016
Peugeot Hold Since 28/04/2016
Buy Since 05/08/2015
Unicredit Buy Since 17/03/2014
United Overseas Bank Buy Since 03/03/2017
Hold Since 01/04/2016
Buy Since 03/06/2015
Standard Life Hold (initiation of coverage) Since 21/03/2016
SUEZ Buy (initiation of coverage) Since 19/12/2014
WPP Group Buy (initiation of coverage) Since 08/08/2007
Rating system for global equity research (stock rating)
Buy Expected to outperform the regional industry group by at least 5% in the coming 9-12 months, unless otherwise stated.
Hold Expected to perform in line (±5%) with the regional industry group in the coming 9-12 months, unless otherwise stated.
Reduce Expected to underperform the regional industry group by at least 5% in the coming 9-12 months, unless otherwise
stated.
Frequency of equity rating updates
An update on Buy-rated equities will be provided on a quarterly basis. An update for Hold and Reduce-rated equities will be provided semi-annually or on an ad-
hoc basis.
DAILY WIRE | MONDAY, 06 MARCH 2017; 08:47 CET 10/14
Risk rating systerm for global equity research (stock rating)
The risk rating (High/Medium/Low) is a measure of a stock’s expected volatility and risk of losses in case of negative news flow. This non-quantitative rating is
based on criteria such as historical volatility, industry, earnings risk, valuation and balance sheet strength.
Strategy research
Countries, sectors and investment styles are rated “overweight”, “neutral” or “underweight”. These ratings are based on our expectations for relative
performance versus regional and global benchmark indices.
Overweight Expected to outperform regional or global benchmark indices in the coming 9-12 months, unless otherwise stated.
Neutral Expected to perform in line with regional or global benchmark indices in the coming 9-12 months, unless otherwise
stated.
Underweight Expected to underperform regional or global benchmark indices in the coming 9-12 months, unless otherwise stated.
Equity investments are divided into three different risk segments. Risk here is defined as the historical five-year volatility based on
monthly returns in CHF. Based on the data of all segments considered (developed markets, emerging markets, global sectors, investment styles) the following
distinction is made:
Conservative Investments whose historical volatility is in the bottom quartile of the universe described above.
Medium Investments whose historical volatility is in the middle two quartiles of the universe described above.
Opportunistic Investments whose historical volatility is in the top quartile of the universe described above.
Fixed income research
Issuer rating allocation as of 06/03/2017
Buy 53.36% Hold 42.69% Sell 3.95%
Julius Baer does not provide investment banking services to the companies covered by Research.
Issuer rating history as of 06/03/2017
Issuer Rating History
Philippines Hold Since 29/11/2016
Rating system for fixed income research
Buy Within its risk category, the issuer is highly recommended due to its financial and business condition (strong balance sheet, income
statement, cash flow and good position in the industry). Debt instruments of the issuer are regarded as an attractive investment from a
risk/return perspective.
Hold Maintain position based on stable credit fundamentals and/or average expected return characteristics within peer group.
Sell The rating is changed to Sell, depending on a significant deterioration in the fundamental data of the issuer in relation to the industry
peers. The investment is no longer justified from a risk/return perspective for the relevant category.
Frequency of issuer rating updates
An update on each issuer will be provided semi-annually, on a rating change or on an ad-hoc basis.
Fixed income market segment ratings
Attractive Segments that are expected to yield a return that is above the ten-year historical average.
Neutral Segments that are expected to yield a return that is in line with the ten-year historical average.
Unattractive Segments that are expected to yield a return that is below the ten-year historical average.
Risk categories for fixed income research
Conservative Supranational issuers, top-rated sovereign issuers and bodies that are directly and fully guaranteed by these institutions.
These issuers are most likely to preserve their top rating throughout the business cycle.
Quality Sovereigns and corporate issuers that are very likely to service and repay debt within a five-year credit scenario. They are
likely to preserve their investment-grade rating throughout a normal business cycle.
Opportunistic Issuers that are quite likely to service and repay debt within the five-year credit scenario. Such issuers have an attractive
risk/return profile in the current credit scenario but are subject to rating downgrade risk and, thus, might be exchanged
periodically.
Speculative Sub-investment-grade issuers in Europe and the USA as well as local issuers in emerging markets. Issuers are likely to
service and repay debt in the current credit scenario. Investors must note that these issuers are subject to a higher
downgrade and default frequency and that an active management of these positions is crucial.
Credit rating definition
Credit ratings used in our publications follow the definitions and systematic of Moody's (www.moodys.com).
Moody’s Standard & Poor's Fitch/IBCA Credit rating definition
Aaa AAA AAA Obligations rated Aaa are judged to be of the highest quality, with minimal credit
risk.
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Aa1
Aa2
Aa3
AA+
AA
AA-
AA
AA-
Obligations rated Aa are judged to be of high quality and are subject to very low
credit risk.
Investment-
grade
A1
A2
A3
A+
A
A-
A+
A
A-
Obligations rated A are considered upper-medium grade and are subject to low
credit risk.
Baa1
Baa2
Baa3
BBB+
BBB
BBB-
BBB+
BBB
BBB-
Obligations rated Baa are subject to moderate credit risk. They are considered
medium-grade and as such may possess certain speculative characteristics.
Ba1
Ba2
Ba3
BB+
BB
BB-
BB+
BB
BB-
Obligations rated Ba are judged to have speculative elements and are subject to
substantial credit risk.
Non-
B1
B2
B3
B+
B
B-
B+
B
B-
Obligations rated B are considered speculative and are subject to high credit risk.
investment-
grade
Caa1
Caa2
Caa3
CCC+
CCC
CCC-
CCC+
CCC
CCC-
Obligations rated Caa are judged to be of poor standing and are subject to very
high credit risk.
Ca CC
C
CC+
CC
CC-
Obligations rated Ca are highly speculative and are likely in, or very near, default,
with some prospect of recovery of principal and interest.
C D DDD Obligations rated C are the lowest rated class of bonds and are typically in
default, with little prospect for recovery of principal or interest.
Technical analysis
The information and opinions expressed were produced by Julius Baer Technical Analysis as of date of writing and are subject to change without notice. Julius
Baer conducts primary technical analysis aimed at creating value through investment recommendations. Technical Analysis uses historic market prices in order
to assess market conditions. The historic data is analysed by chart reading i.e. by following chart patterns and interpreting indicators calculated from historic
price movements. Technical Analysis may be inconsistent with and reach different conclusions to fundamental analysis. It may vary at any time due
to the different tools used to assess market conditions and recommendations. Besides individual investment recommendations, Technical Analysis also
publishes technical indicator readings, which are mechanically calculated and only provide additional information to large sets of data, and are not intended as
investment recommendations. These tables show current trends on an absolute price or relative basis using up, flat and downward pointing arrows. At the same
time, support and resistance levels might be displayed which are calculated using Bollinger Bands.
Frequently used abbreviations
C Closing price H High price L Low price
ST Short-term (2-8 weeks) MT Medium-term (8-26 weeks) LT Long-term (> 26 weeks)
MAV Moving average
Bollinger-band The middle Bollinger band is a 20 day simple moving average, the higher and lower bands are calculated as a 20-day simple moving
average plus or minus two standard deviations on a 20-day period.
Momentum Momentum is derived from different rate of change calculations based on the underlying instrument.
RSI Relative strength index is a leading momentum indicator of prices, showing the strength of a stock by monitoring changes in closing prices
in a 9-day period.
Rating system for global technical analysis (absolute)
Buy Expected to advance by at least 10% in the coming 3-12 months, unless otherwise stated.
Hold Expected to perform in line (±5%) in the coming 3-12 months, unless otherwise stated.
Reduce Expected to decline by at least 10% in the coming 3-12 months, unless otherwise stated.
Rating system for global technical analysis (relative)
Overweight Expected to outperform its benchmark by at least 5% in the coming 3-12 months, unless otherwise stated.
Neutral Expected to perform in line (±5%) against its benchmark in the coming 3-12 months, unless otherwise stated.
Underweight Expected to underperform its benchmark by at least 5% in the coming 3-12 months, unless otherwise stated.
For the history of Technical Analysis equity recommendations over the previous 12 months please view the document at:
http://www.juliusbaer.com/tech-analysis-recom-history
DISCLAIMER
DAILY WIRE | MONDAY, 06 MARCH 2017; 08:47 CET 12/14
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