2
r ~iw w~, wwww~ ~ ww ww ~ ww Telephone facsimile for business Post-News, UK (1978) £39 By Spring 1979, at least five Japanese manufacturers will be selling facsimile transmission units for electronic mail at not much more than £200, which is only one-tenth of the price of some facsimile units available two years ago. The fall has been made possible by rapid advances in microprocessor technology. The French government has become the first in the world to actively sup- port electronic mail as a major alterna- tive to the conventional posts. Con- tracts worth over ~gIM have been placed with four manufacturers to develop facsimile machines for the French PTT that are expected to cost only £I 50. The report predicts that these lower- cost machines will revolutionize first- class mail services in many part of the world, delivering letters in as little as 35s once the connection has been established over the public telephone network. The costs are already com- parable with those of ordinary mail within the local telephone area, and can be as little as £0.1025. Facsimile letters can be sent from the UK to nearby continental countries for £0.40, to the USA for £0.77 and to Australia and the Far East for £I .27. In the USA and Canada, privately owned computer-control led networks to which any business user can sub- scribe are coming into service. The current cost of a letter varies from $60 to [g1.50, depending on the volume and delivery time, which can be as short as 15 min. The cost is independent of distance, and is expec- ted to fall to $0.25 by the mid1980s Rentals for existing facsimile machines vary from £25/month for a lightweight machine suitable for port- able, low-volume applications to £553/ month for a high-speed machine suit- able for unattended 24 h continuous transmission of documents to a variety of different addresses. The cost of the special paper used to record the received messages varies from less than £0.01 a sheet to £0.05 a sheet. The market-forecast chapter of the report predicts that there will be about 500 000 facsimile units in use in offi- ces in the USA by the mid1980s as well as a still difficult to determine number of very cheap units in small offices and the home. The growth of the main market is expected to be at the rate of about 17%/year increasing to 20% in the early 1980s. In Europe, the penetration so far has been greatest in the UK. It has been particularly low in Germany be- cause of their excellent telex and mail services, and in France because of the poor quality of the telephone network. However, the situation is expected to change rapidly, particularly in France as their very heavy investment in new telecommunications system rapidly improves the quality of the network. The report predicts that, by 1985, there will be over 300000 low- medium- and high-priced facsimile machines installed in Europe in addition to a possibly very large number of very low-cost machines. In France alone there could be 150 000 very cheap machines in use. If, as seems probable, cheap facsi- mile units do become popular in this way, the repercussions could be very great. Trade union opposition is already beginning. The French govern ment, which at first talked about the introduction of 5M facsimile units over the next 10 years, has now cut it~ forecast to 1M following fierce trade union opposition, but it is believed that, behind the scenes, it is still relyir on its first forecast. In the USA, where it is possible that private concerns will own and build up electronic mail services, there are fears of a complete collapse of the conventional, government-controlled postal service within a decade. In the UK, a director of BPO Telecommuni- cations has said that he expects facsi- mile technology to begin to have an impact on the postal service by the mid1980s. The report is aimed at those who hi to make decisions about business fac- simile and electronic mail, at users and potential users, office and telecom- munications managers, and the manag- ing directors and marketing directors of electronic and telecommunications companies currently manufacturing facsimile units or considering entering this market. It is also for those con- cerned with policy decisions about facsimile in post and telegraph adminis trations and regulatory bodies. (Post- News, Stoke-sub-Hamdon, Somerset TA 14 6BR, UK. Tel: 093-588 245) I- Lasers in reprographics and communications International Resource Development, USA (1978) The mass production of lasers for fibre- optic systems, reprographics and other purposes will result in a great drop in laser prices, according to the report, which predicts that the 1978 price of about ~1 000 per laser will fall to be- low ~g20, and perhaps even below $10, by 1988. Short-haul communications systems will have moved significantly to the use of fibre-optic communications by the mid1980s, and the designers of these systems will probably prefer lasers over the other available choices (such as LEDs). The fibre-optic sys- tems will be used initially in short- distance urban communications appli- cations, where, as the fibres have hun- dreds of times the information-carryin capability of copper cable, they can bc fitted into crowded ducts under city streets. However, fibre-optic appli- cations will become considerably more widespread in the early 1980s, and will be used for many short- and medium-distance telecommunications links. Some observers have suggested that fibre-optic techniques will even be used for long-distance communi- cations, as the available satellite orbit space becomes used up. Several modern facsimile transcei- vers also use lasers, according to the vol 2 no I february 1979 2~

Lasers in reprographics and communications: International resource development, USA (1978)

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r ~ i w w ~ , wwww ~ ~ ww ww ~ ww

Telephone facsimile for business

Post-News, U K (1978) £39

By Spring 1979, at least five Japanese manufacturers will be selling facsimile transmission units for electronic mail at not much more than £200, which is only one-tenth of the price of some facsimile units available two years ago. The fall has been made possible by rapid advances in microprocessor technology.

The French government has become the first in the world to actively sup- port electronic mail as a major alterna- tive to the conventional posts. Con- tracts worth over ~gIM have been placed with four manufacturers to develop facsimile machines for the French PTT that are expected to cost only £I 50.

The report predicts that these lower- cost machines will revolutionize first- class mail services in many part of the world, delivering letters in as little as 35s once the connection has been established over the public telephone network. The costs are already com- parable with those of ordinary mail within the local telephone area, and can be as little as £0.1025. Facsimile letters can be sent from the UK to nearby continental countries for £0.40, to the USA for £0.77 and to Australia and the Far East for £I .27.

In the USA and Canada, privately owned computer-control led networks to which any business user can sub- scribe are coming into service. The current cost of a letter varies from $60 to [g1.50, depending on the volume and delivery time, which can be as short as 15 min. The cost is independent of distance, and is expec- ted to fall to $0.25 by the mid1980s

Rentals for existing facsimile machines vary from £25/month for a lightweight machine suitable for port- able, low-volume applications to £553/ month for a high-speed machine suit- able for unattended 24 h continuous transmission of documents to a variety of different addresses. The cost of the special paper used to record the received messages varies from less than £0.01 a sheet to £0.05 a sheet.

The market-forecast chapter of the report predicts that there will be about

500 000 facsimile units in use in offi- ces in the USA by the mid1980s as well as a still diff icult to determine number of very cheap units in small offices and the home. The growth of the main market is expected to be at the rate of about 17%/year increasing to 20% in the early 1980s.

In Europe, the penetration so far has been greatest in the UK. It has been particularly low in Germany be- cause of their excellent telex and mail services, and in France because of the poor quality of the telephone network. However, the situation is expected to change rapidly, particularly in France as their very heavy investment in new telecommunications system rapidly improves the quality of the network.

The report predicts that, by 1985, there will be over 300000 low- medium- and high-priced facsimile machines installed in Europe in addition to a possibly very large number of very low-cost machines. In France alone there could be 150 000 very cheap machines in use.

If, as seems probable, cheap facsi- mile units do become popular in this way, the repercussions could be very

great. Trade union opposition is already beginning. The French govern ment, which at first talked about the introduction of 5M facsimile units over the next 10 years, has now cut it~ forecast to 1M following fierce trade union opposition, but it is believed that, behind the scenes, it is still relyir on its first forecast.

In the USA, where it is possible that private concerns will own and build up electronic mail services, there are fears of a complete collapse of the conventional, government-controlled postal service within a decade. In the UK, a director of BPO Telecommuni- cations has said that he expects facsi- mile technology to begin to have an impact on the postal service by the mid1980s.

The report is aimed at those who hi to make decisions about business fac- simile and electronic mail, at users and potential users, office and telecom- munications managers, and the manag- ing directors and marketing directors of electronic and telecommunications companies currently manufacturing facsimile units or considering entering this market. It is also for those con- cerned with policy decisions about facsimile in post and telegraph adminis trations and regulatory bodies. (Post- News, Stoke-sub-Hamdon, Somerset TA 14 6BR, UK. Tel: 093-588 245) I-

Lasers in reprographics and communications In ternat iona l Resource Deve lopment , USA (1978)

The mass production of lasers for fibre- optic systems, reprographics and other purposes will result in a great drop in laser prices, according to the report, which predicts that the 1978 price of about ~1 000 per laser will fall to be- low ~g20, and perhaps even below $10, by 1988.

Short-haul communications systems will have moved significantly to the use of fibre-optic communications by the mid1980s, and the designers of these systems will probably prefer lasers over the other available choices (such as LEDs). The fibre-optic sys- tems will be used initially in short- distance urban communications appli-

cations, where, as the fibres have hun- dreds of times the information-carryin capability of copper cable, they can bc fitted into crowded ducts under city streets. However, fibre-optic appli- cations will become considerably more widespread in the early 1980s, and will be used for many short- and medium-distance telecommunications links. Some observers have suggested that fibre-optic techniques will even be used for long-distance communi- cations, as the available satellite orbit space becomes used up.

Several modern facsimile transcei- vers also use lasers, according to the

vol 2 no I february 1979 2~

report, which reviews the Xerox Tele- copier 200, the Muirhead M300 and the Litton Washfax equipment as examples of laser-based facsimile systems. Lasers are also used in the Harris press- photograph fax transmission system.

Several high-speed laser-based line printers from Xerox, IBM and Siemens are discussed; the recently introduced Xerox 9700 printer is considered to be a possible link product to the 'office of the future'. This type of laser-based

printer could serve as a high-speed electronic-mail output station in the future office environment. Xerox is now manufacturing its own lasers, rather than replying completely on outside sources of supply.

Suppliers of lasers are reviewed in detail in the report, which points out that US companies currently have a worldwide lead in laser technology and production. However, Hitachi, and possibly other Japanese suppliers,

are rapidly moving into very strong positions in the laser market, and may eventually usurp US suppliers even in the domestic US market. Signi- ficant US suppliers of lasers include the American Laser Corp., Coherent Radiation, General Optronics, Hughes, Lincoln Laser, Spectra Physics and Valtec. (International Resource De- velopment Inc., 125 Elm Street, PC) Box 1131, New Canaan, CT 06840, USA. Tel: (203) 96¢5615) []

Computer Users' Year Book 1978 CUYB, UK (1978) 1018 pp, £21.95

In the last ten years, computer use in the UK has grown ten-fold and hard- ware costs have fallen eight-fold, as explained in the introduction to the CUYB 1978.

In 1969, there were about 5 000 terminals with BPO modems in use; in 1978 there are over 52000. On hard- ware costs, the CUYB compares today's powerful small business system with discs, VDUs and printer, costing about £20 000, with a similar-sized con- figuration with slow magnetic tapes, but no discs or VDU facilities, costing £50000 ten years ago. Given a three- fold erosion in the value of money, real costs can be said to have fallen by more than 800% in the period.

Data processing salaries in the UK increased by an average of 10.8% dur- ing the year ended May 1978, com- pared with national salary increases of 12.5% as revealed in an analysis cover-

ing 22 996 employees in 1 254 com- puter installations.

A study is also included of shift working and shift pay.

In the 1978 CUYB, 19000 compu- ters are listed in 7 600 locations. De- tails of 281 service bureaux are provided and profiles are supplied of over 500 computer consultancies. 192 recruit- ment firms specializing in computer staff are listed.

New sections include a study and a three-year prognosis on the worldwide development of computer networks, an examination of the personal computing field, and a bibliography of newly pub- lished computer literature classified under 66 categories ranging from arti- ficial intelligence to word processing.

The tables of equipment characteris- tics have been extended to include microprocessors and add-on/replace- ment CPU storage devices. [ ]

Private electronic switching systems

lEE Conference Publication 163, UK (1978) 214 pp, £12.00

The proceedings contain papers pre- sented at the international conference on private electronic switching systems held in London, 10-12 April 1978, and organized by the lEE Electronics Division in association with the Institute of Administrative Management, the I EEE Communications Society, the IMA and the IERE.

The contents include papers on

evaluating the benefits of advanced faci- lities, SPC in a switching system with analogue TDM techniques, Horizon - an advanced technology communications system for small business customers, the Plessey PDX, maintenance in inter- linked systems, new technology for private switching systems, full electronic TD-PABX techniques, and a call description language. [ ]

Program design methods G B Bleazard, National Computing Centre, UK (1978) 104 pp, £3 .50

The investigation opens with an out- line of the nature of programming and relates to the objectives and principles of program design. Various approaches and techniques are surveyed, and a com- parison is made to explain their simi- larities and differences. As examples, the author concentrates on two widely used systems: IBM's IPT and the Jack- son method. The book assesses the implication of program design in coding, languages and documentation. I-1

Maritime and aeronautical satellite communication and navigation lEE Conference Publication 160, UK (1978) 158 pp, £10.50

The contents include papers on an outline of a forward-looking maritime satellite communication system, multi- plexing, multiple access and signalling in the Marots maritime mobile satellite system, high-speed data transmission, the key of a simple Aerosat airborne equipment, the results of aeronautical satellite modem and antenna evaluation tests, a multibeam array, designed for use in an aeromaritime system, the use of a microprocessor in a Marisat ship terminal, and a joint maritime and aeronautical satellite system. [ ]

28 computer communications