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Large-scale rollout of hydrogen poweredfuel cell cars in the Netherlands
ALV NWV, Amersfoort, 17 March 2010
Presented by Marcel Weeda
Outline
• Introduction: need for transition in mobility
• Low carbon concepts and industry vision
• Status and outlook for fuel cell electric cars
• EOS-LT project THRIVE
2
� Simulating roll-out of hydrogen cars and infrastructure
� Cost analysis refuelling infrastructure and FCEV’s
� Environmental impact
• Summary and conclusions
Drivers for transition …
• Reduce dependency on oil
• Substantial GHG emission reduction needed to limit global warming
Oil
Biomass1%
Other4%
Introduction
3
17-3-2011
Oil95%
World energy consumption transport sector by energy source; IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
Source: European Environment Agency, 2009
Options for improvement
• Reduce transport demand
• Improve transport efficiency
• Improve driving behaviour
• Improve vehicle efficiency
•
Air13%
Rail2%
International maritime
2%Pipeline
2% Other0%
Introduction
4
17-3-2011
• Use low carbon fuels
Focus on innovative drivetrains
Road passengers
51%
Road freight30%
World energy consumption transport sector by energy source; IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
Several innovative electric concepts available
• Electric car:
� Car driven by an electric motor only
� Supply of electricity is the challenge, not the electric motor
Low carbon concepts and industry vision
5
PHEV:Plug-in HybridElectric Vehicle
BEV:Battery Electric Vehicle
FCEV:Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
Industry vision
Low carbon concepts and industry vision
6 17-3-2011
Bron: General Motors Europe, Thiesen
FCEV major accomplishments
• Many millions miles of testing
• First cars reaching 150,000 km without major problems
• Cold start at - 25 °C no problem anymore
Status and outlook for fuel cell electric cars
7
4th and new 5th generation Fuel Cell system of GM
FCEV major accomplishments and outlook
Status and outlook for fuel cell electric cars
8
Average fuel consumption during real world test 3.4 lg.e./100 km
• ‘Toyota’s first fuel-cell vehicle to be priced ‘shockingly’ low’ (16 July 2009)
• Toyota aims for $50,000 production hydrogen sedan (7 May 2010)
• Hyundai-Kia “confident we can beat” Toyota’s $50,000 price on fuel cell cars (6 June 2010)
Line up for market rollout?
Status and outlook for fuel cell electric cars
9
Hydrogen and FCEV require coordinated action
Status and outlook for fuel cell electric cars
10
THRIVE: Study of hydrogen roll-out scenarios
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VEhicles
• Dynamic simulation consumer-driven, interdependentroll-out of a FCEV fleet and corresponding hydrogen refuelling infrastructure
• Cost analysis
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles11
• Cost analysis
• Analysis impact on GHG emissions
• Focus:� Hydrogen as fuel for passenger cars
� Commercialisation phase
� The Netherlands
Consumer
Project approach
INPUT MODEL
H2 Units
Allocation
Start/New Situation
H2 Cars
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles
ANALYSISPolicyCost Well-to-Wheels
ICE - 0-30% biofuels
H2 - SMR, incl / excl CCS
12
Projections
2020 2030 2040 2050
1000
2000
3000
4000
Year
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Visualisation
Assumption: Level Playing Field
Coherent scenarios
Policy ambition level Low Medium High
Fuel supplier strategy Careful Reactive Proactive
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles13
Consumer attractiveness Low Medium High
Fuel supplier strategy Careful Reactive Proactive
Car industry strategy Careful Reactive Proactive
High Scenario
2015
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1000
2000
3000
4000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles
2020 2030 2040 20500%
10%1000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]Scenario Low Medium High
Increasing number of H2 refuelling units
Increasing H2 car penetration
High Scenario
2020
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1000
2000
3000
4000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles
Increasing number of H2 refuelling units
Increasing H2 car penetration
2020 2030 2040 20500%
10%1000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]Scenario Low Medium High
High Scenario
2025
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1000
2000
3000
4000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles
Increasing number of H2 refuelling units
Increasing H2 car penetration
2020 2030 2040 20500%
10%1000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]Scenario Low Medium High
High Scenario
2030
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1000
2000
3000
4000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles
Increasing number of H2 refuelling units
Increasing H2 car penetration
2020 2030 2040 20500%
10%1000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]Scenario Low Medium High
High Scenario
2035
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1000
2000
3000
4000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles
Increasing number of H2 refuelling units
Increasing H2 car penetration
2020 2030 2040 20500%
10%1000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]Scenario Low Medium High
High Scenario
2040
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1000
2000
3000
4000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles
Increasing number of H2 refuelling units
Increasing H2 car penetration
2020 2030 2040 20500%
10%1000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]Scenario Low Medium High
High Scenario
2045
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1000
2000
3000
4000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles
Increasing number of H2 refuelling units
Increasing H2 car penetration
2020 2030 2040 20500%
10%1000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]Scenario Low Medium High
High Scenario
2050
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1000
2000
3000
4000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles
Increasing number of H2 refuelling units
Increasing H2 car penetration
2020 2030 2040 20500%
10%1000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]Scenario Low Medium High
Results – car penetration per scenario
0%
1%
2%
3%
100
200
30%
40%
50%
3000
4000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles22
2015 2020 2025 20300%
Scenario Low Medium High
2020 2030 2040 20500%
10%
20%
1000
2000
Hyd
roge
n ca
r pe
netr
atio
n
Hyd
roge
n ca
rs [x
1000
]
Results – Share of H 2 cars in total car sales
30%
45%
60%
cars
sol
d[s
hare
in to
tal c
ar s
ales
/ ye
ar]
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
cars
sol
d / y
ear
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles23
Scenario Low Medium High
2020 2030 2040 20500%
15%
30%
H2
cars
sol
d[s
hare
in to
tal c
ar s
ales
/ ye
ar]
2015 2020 20250H
2ca
rs s
old
/ yea
r
Considered refuelling station concept
• Integration in existing refuelling stations� Central production and liquefaction of hydrogen
� Truck-delivery and cryo-storage of liquid hydrogen
� Dispensing of gaseous hydrogen at 350 – 700 bar in <3 min
� Pressurisation of hydrogen using cryo-pump
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles
� Expansion capacity with standardized modules
•
24
Investment Cost Analysis
• Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis
• Levelised cost of dispensed H2 (in €2010)
� Cost for which project NPV = 0 after economic lifetime
� Minimum price (excl. VAT) to be charged at the pump
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles
� 2 perspectives:
� Whole infrastructure perspective (one big project):
Cumulative Net Present Value = 0 for investments until 2050
� Single investor perspective (individual projects):
Net Present Value = 0 after economic lifetime
25
4
6
8
Lev
. co
st o
f dis
pen
sed
H2[€
/kg
]Whole Infrastructure Perspective
Cost of underutilisation
Cost of station equipment,
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles
0
2
4
55% 70% 85% 100%
Lev
. co
st o
f dis
pen
sed
H
Average weighed RU utilisation
Simulation results
Cost in case of no progress
26
Cost of station equipment, installation & operation
Cost of H2 production, liquefaction & transport
Single Investor Perspective
Min. H2 price (excl. taxes) necessary to reach NPV = 0 after 15 years
15
20
25
Lev.
cos
t of d
ispe
nsed
H2
[€/k
g]
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles27
2020 2030 2040 20500
5
10
Lev.
cos
t of d
ispe
nsed
H
Year of first investment
High Scenario
15
20
25
Lev.
cos
t of d
ispe
nsed
H2
[€/k
g]Early Investor Disadvantage
Early Investor Disadvantage
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles
2020 2030 2040 20500
5
10
Lev.
cos
t of d
ispe
nsed
H
Year of first investment
High Scenario
28
15
20
25
Lev.
cos
t of d
ispe
nsed
H2
[€/k
g]Definition “Infrastructure Cost Gap”
Price of H2 equivalent to current price of gasoline excl. VAT & incl. excise duties
Infrastructure cost gap
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles
2020 2030 2040 20500
5
10
Lev.
cos
t of d
ispe
nsed
H
Year of first investment
High Scenario
29
gasoline excl. VAT & incl. excise duties
Definition “FCEV Cost Gap”
20.000
30.000
Tra
in C
ost (
€)
FCEV, high scenario
HEV
FCEV net price ≈ € 42 000
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles3030
2020 2030 2040 20500
10.000
Tota
l Driv
e-T
rain
Cos
t (
FCEV cost gap
Cost Gap Analysis– High Scenario –
75
100
Cos
t gap
[mln
€]
Acceptableextra cost
[€]
Cum. gap [M€]
Extra cost till
[yr]
0 1309 2042
Ann
ual c
ost g
ap [m
ln
€]
Σ = 1309 M€
Σ = 1000 M€
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles31
2020 2030 2040 2050
25
50
Cos
t gap
[mln
Year in which cost gap occurs
FCEV cost gap
difference to HEV < 10%
Infrastructure cost gap
500 636 2036
1000 266 2031
2000 76 2026
Ann
ual c
ost g
ap [m
ln
Σ = 81 M€
Σ = 1309 M€
Cost Gap Analysis– Comparison of Scenarios –
50
75
100
Tota
l cos
t gap
[mln
€]
0,5
0,8
80
120
160
Add
ition
al p
rice
cent
/ L
conv
. fu
el]
Add
ition
al p
rice
/ car
]
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles32
Scenario Low Medium High
2020 2030 2040 2050
25
50
Tota
l cos
t gap
[mln
Year in which cost gap occurs
2020 2030 2040 20500,0
0,3
0,5
0
40
80
Add
ition
al p
rice
[€-c
ent /
L c
onv.
fue
l]
Add
ition
al p
rice
[€/ c
ar]
Year
15
20
25
Lev.
cos
t of d
ispe
nsed
H2
[€/k
g]Cost Gap Analysis – Missing Excise Duties
Price of H2 equivalent to current price of gasoline excl. VAT & incl. excise duties
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles
Missing excise duties
2020 2030 2040 20500
5
10
Lev.
cos
t of d
ispe
nsed
H
Year of first investment
High Scenario
33
gasoline excl. VAT & incl. excise duties
Price of H2 equivalent to current price of gasoline excl. VAT & excise duties
WTW GHG Emission Factors
100
150
200
250W
tW G
HG
em
issi
on fa
ctor
s[g
CO
2/ k
m]
ICEV; 0-30% biofuels
FCEV; H2 from SMR incl./excl. CCS
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles34
• ICEV-fleet’s energy consumption: 40% gasoline, 60% diesel
• Bandwidth dependent on % biofuels (ICEV) and CCS (H2)
• FCEV offer 30% to 70% lower WTW GHG emission factors
0
50
100
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
WtW
GH
G e
mis
sion
fact
ors
[g C
O
Environmental impact of FCEV (Example)
• Diesel and gasoline are replaced by 30% with biofuels (ICE)20%
30%
40%
WT
W G
HG
em
issi
on re
duct
ion
Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles35
Scenario Low Medium High
• H2 is produced from natural gas via SMR including CCS
2020 2030 2040 20500%
10%
20%
WT
W G
HG
em
issi
on re
duct
ion
Conclusions
• THRIVE scenarios indicate that by 2050, up to 35% of all cars in the Netherlands could run on hydrogen
• Meaningful penetration requires large upfront investments in refuelling infrastructure, initially suffering from underutilisation and thus leading to high initial cost
• First movers require stimulation to overcome first mover
36
• First movers require stimulation to overcome first mover uncertainties and disadvantages
• THRIVE evaluated that hydrogen is doable and affordable; cost gaps that need to be bridged cumulate to about 1 - 2 billion €(excl. missed excise duty), to be bridged in 2 – 3 decades
• Good prospects for significant Well-to-Wheel GHG emission reduction, especially if proper incentives are introduced for ‘clean and green’ hydrogen
Acknowledgement
• The THRIVE consortium gratefully acknowledges the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Agentschap NL for their financial support
37
• Report: ECN-E--11-005
• Link: www.ecn.nl/publicaties
• Contact: [email protected]
THANK YOU
World’s first draft beer powered by a hydrogen fuel cell at the Dutch Pavilion WHEC 2010
38
17-3-2011