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Landscape of Higher Education:
Human Capital
Thanos Patelis & Kelcey Edwards
July 26, 2012
Overview
• Introduction
• The Demographic Wave
• Trends in Student Characteristics & Academic
Preparation
• Access and Success in Rigorous Courses
• Q&A
The Demographic Wave
• Rapid expansion and diversification of graduates
• Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), Knocking at the College
Door, March 2008
The Demographic Wave
Between 1996 and 2022, the percent of US public high
school graduates who are Hispanic grows from 10% to 28%.
20% 40%
23% 45% 4% 26%
5% 15%
7% 19%3% 12%
Regional and
state variation
in growth
56%
57%
49%
49%
47%
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), Knocking at the College Door, 2008
College-Bound Seniors
Sources: CDC National Center for Health Statistics Monthly Vital Statistics Reports (births);
Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (high school graduates);
NCES Digest of Educational Statistics 2010 (immediate college enrollees);
College Board (SAT Examinees in US Cohort)
4.1 million, 1991
3.3 million, 2009
2.1 million, 2009
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Graduating Class
Number of Births, HS Graduates, and Immediate College Enrollees
Births HS Graduates Immediate College Enrollees SAT Examinees
1.4 million, 2009
Migration of Students
45.450.1 51.8
10.611.9 12.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2004 2006 2008
Percent of US High School Graduates Attending College
In Home State Out of Home State
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education
Statistics 2007 (Table 194), 2009 (Table 203), 2011 (Table 212)
Trends in CBS Student Characteristics
• Increasingly diverse SAT examineesSource: College-Bound Seniors 1991-2011 Profile Report analyses of
self-reported information from the Student Descriptive Questionnaire (SDQ)
Trends in CBS Student Characteristics
• Increasingly diverse SAT examineesSource: College-Bound Seniors 1991-2011 Profile Report analyses of
self-reported information from the Student Descriptive Questionnaire (SDQ)
Trends in CBS Student Characteristics
• Steady % First Generation in past 10 yearsSource: College-Bound Seniors 1991-2011 Profile Report analyses of
self-reported information from the Student Descriptive Questionnaire (SDQ)
Trends in Academic Preparation - Rank
• Steady rise across groups; persistent gapsSource: College-Bound Seniors 1991-2011 Profile Report analyses of
self-reported information from the Student Descriptive Questionnaire (SDQ)
Trends in Academic Preparation - GPA
• Steady rise across groups; persistent gapsSource: College-Bound Seniors 1991-2011 Profile Report analyses of
self-reported information from the Student Descriptive Questionnaire (SDQ)
Trends in Academic Preparation – AP/Honors
• Steady rise across groups; persistent gapsSource: College-Bound Seniors 1991-2011 Profile Report analyses of
self-reported information from the Student Descriptive Questionnaire (SDQ)
Trends in Academic Preparation – Calculus
• Steady rise across groups; persistent gapsSource: College-Bound Seniors 1991-2011 Profile Report analyses of
self-reported information from the Student Descriptive Questionnaire (SDQ)
Trends in Academic Preparation – Physics
• Steady rise across groups; persistent gapsSource: College-Bound Seniors 1991-2011 Profile Report analyses of
self-reported information from the Student Descriptive Questionnaire (SDQ)
Access to Rigorous Courses –
All Students
Access to Rigorous Courses
Performance in Rigorous Courses –
All Students
Performance in Rigorous Courses
Questions?
• Researchers are encouraged to freely express their professional
judgment. Therefore, points of view or opinions stated in College
Board presentations do not necessarily represent official College
Board position or policy.
• Please forward any questions, comments, and suggestions to:
• Thanos Patelis – [email protected]
• Kelcey Edwards – [email protected]
