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Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications DETEC
Federal Office for Spatial Development, AREp p ,
Land use modelling SwissLand use modelling – Swiss spatial planning perspective p p g p pand requirements
SustainCity Conference 17 04 2013SustainCity Conference 17.04.2013
Dr. Maria LezziDirector ARE
Contents
1 The Swiss context1. The Swiss context2. Studies on how land use and transport interact:
the pastp3. What we want and need land use modelling to do:
the future
2SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
1 The Swiss context1. The Swiss context2. Studies on how land use and transport interact:
the pastp3. What we want and need land use modelling to do:
the future
3SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
The ARE
The Federal Office for Spatial Development ARE isThe Federal Office for Spatial Development, ARE, is the federal government's centre of expertise
- on issues concerning spatial development- on transport policyo t a spo t po cy- and on sustainable development
→coordinated spatial and transport planning→coordinated spatial and transport planning→coordination between different modes of transport
4SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
Planning at the national level
The ARE is primarily concerned with national issuesThe ARE is primarily concerned with national issues
- such as the tripartite strategy and continuedsuch as the tripartite strategy and continued evolution of the Spatial Strategy for Switzerland, and
- drawing up the federal government's sectoral plans.d a g up t e ede a go e e t s secto a p a s
5SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
Planning at the cantonal/regional level
However the ARE is also concerned withHowever, the ARE is also concerned with - reviewing regional plans - reviewing agglomeration plansreviewing agglomeration plans
6SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
Political challenges (1)
• Revision of the Spatial Planning ActRevision of the Spatial Planning Act (Raumplanungsgesetz)
followed by the issues of building zoning, denser y g g,urban development, and containing urban sprawl
→ Impact on land use patterns, land pricesand locational appeal?
7SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
Political challenges (2)
• Long-term financing for transport infrastructures (railLong term financing for transport infrastructures (rail, roads, agglomeration traffic)
• Expansion of railway infrastructure p y• Completion of and relief measures for the national
highway network
→ Impact on land use patterns, land pricesp p pand locational appeal?
8SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
1 The Swiss context1. The Swiss context2. Studies on how land use and transport interact:
the pastp3. What we want and need land use modelling to do:
the future
9SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
Coordinated spatial and transport planning
International context
Society Economy Environment
Space and transport Demand for transportDemand for space
Supply of transportSupply of spaceLocational appeal
Impact
10SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
The DETEC transport model
The ARE employs a bimodal four-level state-of-the-artThe ARE employs a bimodal, four level, state of the art transport model developed by the Federal Institute of Technology, ETH
Analyses of: - changes in traffic flows as a result of infrastructure
measures
- changes in traffic volumes as a result of changing land use patterns
11SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
The DETEC transport model: i t ti ithi S i t itinteraction within Swiss territory (agglomerations, motorised private transport)
Passenger journeys between Swiss agglomerations using motorised private transport
Passenger journeys, average workday traffic
12SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
The DETEC transport model: i t ti ithi S i t itinteraction within Swiss territory (agglomerations, public transport)
Passenger journeys between Swiss agglomerations using public transport
Passenger journeys, average workday traffic
13SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
The DETEC transport model: journey times ith t i d i t t t t f thwith motorised private transport to one of the
five principal cities, 2005
14SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
The DETEC transport model: journey times ith bli t t t f th fiwith public transport to one of the five
principal cities, 2005
15SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
Land use analyses: population growth di t th F d l St ti ti l Offiaccording to the Federal Statistical Office
+ 1 279 797(2005-2030; mean scenario; +17.2%)
+ 1,279,797
16SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
Land use analyses: l ti di t ib ti b 2030population distribution by 2030
Increase/decrease inIncrease/decrease in inhabitants per local authority area, 2005 – 2030
SFSO mean scenario
17SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
Land use analyses: estimated population th b l l th it tgrowth by local authority type
Population 2030 Population growth (in %)
tion
2030
grow
th (i
n %
)
Popu
lat
Popu
latio
n g
r cen
tres
res
/ MC
rbs
/ MC
m c
entre
s
/ med
. C
l cen
tres
ral a
reas
ral a
reas
ist a
reas
Central Peripheral
Maj
or
Sub
-cen
tr
Sub
ur
Med
ium
Sub
urbs
/
Sm
all
Per
iurb
an ru
r
Agr
icul
tur
Tour
i
18SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
Central Peripheral
1 The Swiss context1. The Swiss context2. Studies on how land use and transport interact:
the pastp3. What we want and need land use modelling to do:
the future
19SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
What we want and need (1)
• A better understanding of the medium and long-termA better understanding of the medium and long term secondary impact of new transport infrastructures on ...
• A better understanding of building zoning on ...
... settlement patterns, land prices and locational appeal for businesses and the populationappeal for businesses and the population
20SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE
Concluding remarks
- Integrated transport and land use models areIntegrated transport and land use models are needed urgently
- The model is no substitute for coherent spatial and ptransport policy
- A degree of standardisation is essential- No monopoly, but broadly accessible, open source
software- Education and training
21SustainCity 17.04.2013 lDr. Maria Lezzi, ARE