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Land use in the coming decadesLand use in the coming decades
Science, Policy and Economics Science, Policy and Economics
Uwe A. SchneiderUwe A. Schneider
Sustainability and Global Change Research Sustainability and Global Change Research Unit, Hamburg UniversityUnit, Hamburg University
Land providesLand provides
FoodFood
EnergyEnergy
Habitat Habitat
RepositoryRepository
EmploymentEmployment
RelaxationRelaxation
Land use impactsLand use impacts
Nutrition (Malnutrition)Nutrition (Malnutrition)
ClimateClimate
BiodiversityBiodiversity
WaterWater
SoilSoil
Civil safetyCivil safety
Landscape & CultureLandscape & Culture
Land use impactsLand use impacts
Opportunities (Benefits)Opportunities (Benefits)
Threats (Costs)Threats (Costs)
They are linked. Globally.
Land use questionsLand use questions
What is the optimal land use?
Are we at the optimal state?
If not, how do we get there?
Policy
Science
Economics
Society
We have started the process
How do we get there?How do we get there?
Society demandsSociety demands
Provision of enough healthy foodProvision of enough healthy foodProtection of biodiversityProtection of biodiversityMitigation of climate changeMitigation of climate changeProduction of bioenergyProduction of bioenergyCreation of jobsCreation of jobsPollution reductionPollution reduction
Policy targets for coming decades
Scientific ContributionScientific Contribution
Genetic ChangesGenetic Changes
Management AlternativesManagement Alternatives
Carbon sequestration Carbon sequestration
Bioenergy, BiomaterialBioenergy, Biomaterial
Why Economics?Why Economics?
Resources are relatively finiteResources are relatively finite
Conflicts and synergiesConflicts and synergies
Marginal utilities of goods are decreasingMarginal utilities of goods are decreasing
Complex Optimization Problem
Agricultural GHG MitigationAgricultural GHG Mitigation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Car
bon
pric
e (E
uro/
tce)
Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation (mmtce)
TechnicalPotential
CompetitiveEconomic Potential
Schneider, McCarl, and Schmid, Agricultural Systems, 2007
Agricultural MarketsAgricultural Markets
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Fis
her
ind
ex
Carbon price ($/tce)
Crop prices
Livestock prices
Livestock production
Crop productionCrop exports
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
0 20 40 60 80 100
Bil
lion
$
Carbon price ($/tce)
Welfare ChangesWelfare Changes
Gross Producer Surplus
Emission Payments
Net Producer Surplus
Consumer Surplus
Optimal Mitigation Strategy MixOptimal Mitigation Strategy Mix
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Car
bon
pri
ce (
$/tc
e)
Emission reduction (mmtce)
CH4 N2ODecrease
Tillage CarbonSink
AfforestationSink
Bioenergy EmissionOffsets
McCarl and Schneider, Science, 2001
Tillage Carbon SinkTillage Carbon Sink
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Car
bon
pric
e ($
/tce
)
Soil carbon sequestration (mmtce)
Technical Potential
Economic Potential
Competitive EconomicPotential
McCarl and Schneider, Science, 2001
Environmental Co-EffectsEnvironmental Co-Effects
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Pol
luti
on (
%/a
cre)
Carbon price ($/tce)
N Percolation
N Subsurface Flow
Soil Erosion
P Loss
Emission LeakageEmission Leakage
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
0 20 40 60 80 100
Fis
her
’s I
dea
l In
dex
Carbon price ($/tce)
USA Only Annex I Countries
All Countries
Non-Annex I crop net exports foragricultural GHG mitigation policy in:
Schneider, Havlik, Schmid, Obersteiner et al., submitted, 2009
2030 Scenarios
Mammals
1. Castor fiber Eurasian BeaverEuropäischer Biber
2. Galemys pyrenaicus Pyrenean Desman Pyrenäen-Desman
3. Lutra lutra European Otter Fischotter4. Microtus cabrerae Cabrera's Vole Cabreramaus5. Microtus oec. arenicola Dutch Root Vole
Niederländische Wühlmaus6. Microtus oec. mehelyiPannonian Root Vole
Ungarische Wühlmaus7. Mustela lutreola European Mink Europäischer
Nerz8. Myotis capaccinii Long-fingered Bat
Langfußfledermaus9. Myotis dasycneme Pond Bat TeichfledermausReptiles
1. Elaphe quatuorlineata Four-lined Snake Vierstreifennatter2. Emys orbicularis European Pond Tortoise Europäische
Sumpfschildkröte3. Mauremys caspica Stripe Necked Terrapin Kaspische
Wasserschildkröte4. Mauremys leprosa Spanish Terrapin Spanische
Wasserschildkröte
Amphibians
1. Alytes muletensis Mallorcan Midwife Toad Balearen-Geburtshelferkröte
2. Bombina bombina Fire-Bellied Toad Rotbauchunke3. Bombina variegata Yellow-Bellied Toad Gelbbauchunke4. Chioglossa lusitanica Golden-striped Salamander Goldstreifensalamander5. Discoglossus galganoi Iberian Painted Frog Iberian painted frog6. Discoglossus montalentii Corsican Painted Frog Korsischer
Scheibenzüngler7. Discoglossus sardus Tyrrhenian Painted Frog Sardischer
Scheibenzüngler8. Pelobates f. insubricus Common Spadefoot Italienische
Knoblauchkröte9. Rana latastei Italian Agile Frog Italienischer
Springfrosch10. Salamandrina terdigitata Spectacled Salamander Brillensalamander11. Triturus carnifex Italian Crested Newt Alpen-Kammolch12. Triturus cristatus Great Crested Newt Kammolch13. Triturus dobrogicus Danube Crested Newt Donau-Kammolch14. Triturus karelini Southern Crested Newt Balkankammmolch15. Triturus montandoni Carpathian Newt Karpatenmolch
Birds
1. Acrocephalus paludicola Aquatic Warbler Seggenrohrsänger2. Alcedo atthis Kingfisher Eisvogel3. Anser erythropus Lesser White-fronted Goose Zwerggans4. Aquila chrysaetos Golden Eagle Steinadler5. Aquila clanga Spotted Eagle Schelladler6. Ardea purpurea purpurea Purple Heron Purpurreiher7. Ardeola ralloides Squacco Heron Rallenreiher8. Asio flammeus Short-eared Owl Sumpfohreule9. Aythya nyroca Ferruginous Duck Moorente10. Botaurus stellaris stellaris Bittern Rohrdommel11. Chlidonias hybridus Whiskered Tern
Weißbartseeschwalbe12. Chlidonias niger Black Tern Trauerseeschwalbe13. Ciconia ciconia White Stork Weißstorch14. Ciconia nigra Black Stork Schwarzstorch15. Crex crex Corncrake Wachtelkönig16. Fulica cristata Crested Coot Kammbläßhuhn17. Gavia arctica Black-throated Diver Prachttaucher18. Gelochelidon nilotica Gull-billed Tern Lachseeschwalbe19. Glareola pratincola Collared Pratincole Brachschwalbe20. Grus grus Crane Kranich21. Haliaeetus albicilla White-tailed Eagle Seeadler22. Hoplopterus spinosus Spur-winged Plover Spornkiebitz23. Ixobrychus m. minutus Little Bittern Zwergdommel24. Marmaronetta angustrostris Marbled Teal Marmelente25. Milvus migrans Black Kite Schwarzmilan26. Nycticorax nycticorax Night Heron Nachtreiher27. Oxyura leucocephala White-headed Duck Weißkopf-
Ruderente28. Pandion haliaetus Osprey Fischadler29. Pelecanus crispus Dalmatian Pelican Krauskopfpelikan30. Pelecanus onocrotalus White Pelican Rosapelikan31. Phalacrocorax pygmaeus Pygmy Cormorant Zwergscharbe32. Philomachus pugnax Ruff Kampfläufer33. Platalea leucorodia Spoonbill Löffler34. Plegadis falcinellus Glossy Ibis Braunsichler35. Porphyrio porphyrio Purple Gallinule Purpurhuhn36. Porzana parva parva Little Crake Kleines
Sumpfhuhn37. Porzana porzana Spotted Crake Tüpfelsumpfhuhn38. Porzana pusilla Baillon´s Crake Zwergsumpfhuhn39. Sterna albifrons Little Tern Zwergseeschwalbe40. Tadorna ferruginea Ruddy Shelduck Rostgans41. Tringa glareola Wood Sandpiper Bruchwasserläufer
1
4
3
2
1514
11
6
12
13
10
2
1
7
89
5
4
3
9
2
1
3
4
5
6 7
8
1
26
9
16
8
76
54
32
17
1312
11
10
21
20
23
1514
19
27
25
24
18
28
34
22
33
32
29
35
30
31
41
40
38
36
39
37
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Are
a in
mil
lion
hec
tare
s
Representation Minimum
Mires (Peat lands)
Wet Forest
Wet GrassWater CourseWater Bodies
All Wetland
Jantke and Schneider, 2009
EU25 Bioenergy PotentialsEU25 Bioenergy Potentials
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400Mar
gina
l Bio
mas
s C
ost
in E
uro/
ton
European Biomass Production in million tons
10 Mha
30 Mha
Wetlands = 40 Mha
Schleupner and Schneider, FNU-158, 2008
Challenges for Policy DesignChallenges for Policy Design
Data and model uncertaintyData and model uncertainty
Political feasibility Political feasibility
Monitoring and enforcementMonitoring and enforcement
Available DataModels
InsightsNew Data
Improved Models
Ex: Land Use Policy InsightsEx: Land Use Policy Insights
Simulation results suggest that current and Simulation results suggest that current and historical land use and land quality historical land use and land quality assumptions are crucial driversassumptions are crucial drivers
Better accounting on current land use, Better accounting on current land use, land attributes, and land management is land attributes, and land management is needed needed
ConclusionsConclusions
Policies based on science but not on economics Policies based on science but not on economics will backfire will backfire
Detailed land monitoring at global level crucial Detailed land monitoring at global level crucial before implementation of policiesbefore implementation of policies
Bioenergy from dedicated plantations may cause Bioenergy from dedicated plantations may cause more damage than benefitmore damage than benefit
Deforestation of old growth forests has small Deforestation of old growth forests has small benefits for few but large costs to manybenefits for few but large costs to many
Land restoration should receive greater attentionLand restoration should receive greater attention