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WRSAPolokwane
24 March 2018Theo Venter
Political and Policy Specialist
@theo_venter
Land Reform and the Wildlife Industry
The Politics of Paradox orWMC vs EWC
The Zuma Trap 2003
Source: Zapiro (Jonathan Shapiro)
Very dynamic 1st Quarter in South Africa1. Ramaphosa Spark an immediate change.
2. ANC January 8th statement: clear that things will be different.
3. State of the Nation postponed – something is happening.
4. Zuma playing and old man’s game. He just had to go.
5. CR17 faction immediately started push back on policy change
6. EFF Motion on expropriation without compensation.
7. 2018 Budget showed extreme limitations, VAT 15%.
8. Better economic growth for 2018, than expected.
9. Moody’s kept sovereign credit rating at same level and changed it from
“Negative” to “Stable”.
Part One: How did
we get here?
- Nasrec & CR17
- Cabinet
- Factions still
active
- Role of political
opposition
Part Two: How
does it all fit?
- Transition
- Dominant Party
System
- Political
Dynamics
Part Three: Critical
uncertainties
- Virtuous Cycle
- Vicious Cycle
- Economy
- Land Reform
- Social cohesion
- Political process
Part Four: The way
forward
- The road to 2019
- Beyond 2019?
- Political realignment
- Four scenario
themes
South Africa towards 2019 and beyond
The global Cyril Spark….
WEF 2016 -2017 WEF 2017-2018
1. Restrictive labour regulations 1. Corruption
2. Inefficient government bureaucracy 2. Crime and theft
3. Inadequate supply of infrastructure 3. Government instability/ Coups
4. Policy instability 4. Tax rates
5. Inadequately educated workforce 5. Inefficient government bureaucracy
6. Crime and theft 6. Poor work ethic
7. Corruption 7. Restrictive labour regulations
8. Poor work ethic 8. Inadequately educated workforce
9. Access to finance 9. Inflation
10. Insufficient capacity to innovate 10. Access to finance
11. Tax rates 11. Policy instability
15. Government instability/ Coups 15. Foreign currency regulations
Doing business in South Africa (WEF Competitive Report)
South Africa falls with 14 places in WEF Competitive
Report 2017-2018
The Virtuous and Vicious Cycles
Vicious CycleCentrifugal forces dominate
(“Moving away from the centre”)
Virtuous CycleCentripetal forces dominate
(“Seeking the centre”)
The Virtuous and Vicious Cycles
Independent Judiciary
Stable financial system
Free media
Freedom to associate
Relative Goodinfrastructure
StablePolitical System
Good Banking system
Excellent Constitution
Good financial governance
Crime
Corruption
Restrictive labour regime
Weak economy
Education crisis
Policy uncertainty
High unemployment
Poverty
Government inefficiency
Ruling Party in disarry
Real GDP Growth and Political Constraint
Eighty-nine per cent (89%) of manufacturers view the political climate as a
constraint on business, reflecting public policy uncertainty and poor public
finances.
The paradox goes back to 2005….
Source: Zapiro (Jonathan Shapiro)
Polokwane 2007
Source: Zapiro (Jonathan Shapiro)
Uncertainty prevails….2017
From 2007 to 2017
Game changers during the ANC Conference
1. Announcement of free higher education outside the parameters
of the Heher Commission.
2. An extremely close victory by Cyril Ramaphosa. (CR17 2440
votes vs NDZ 2262 votes, a margin of 178 votes – 3,8% victory –
Consider more than 200 votes nullified in KZN and FS PEC’s and
branches.)
3. Election of Ace Magashule over Senzo Nchunu. No KZN
representtion in Top 6 since 1993! Largest ANC province.
Game changers during the ANC Conference
4. Expropriation without compensation as a policy (NDZ push-back)
Constitution will have to be amended. Political challenge.
CR17 faction immediately started push back on policy
change
No job losses.
Food security.
Impact on the economy.
The Scenario Matrix
Fragmentedstate
Consolidateddemocracy
Optimal growth
Stagnation
Social polarisation
Social cohesion
The Scenario Matrix
Fragmentedstate
Consolidateddemocracy
Optimal growth
Stagnation
Social polarisation
Social cohesion
Gefragmenteerdestaat
Gekonsolideerdedemokrasie
Stagnasie
Sosiale polarisasie
Sosiale kohesie
Optimale groei
Four scenario themes for South Africa beyond 2019
The bad road
ScenarioCry the Beloved
Country – Alan Paton
The Scenario Matrix
Fragmentedstate
Consolidateddemocracy
Optimal growth
Stagnation
Social polarisation
Social cohesion
Gefragmenteerdestaat
Gekonsolideerdedemokrasie
Stagnasie
Sosiale polarisasie
Sosiale kohesie
Optimale groei
Four scenario themes for South Africa beyond 2019The Ubuntu Scenario
Ubuntu –Lovemore Mbigi
The bad road
ScenarioCry the Beloved
Country – Alan Paton
The Scenario Matrix
Fragmentedstate
Consolidateddemocracy
Optimal growth
Stagnation
Social polarisation
Social cohesion
Gefragmenteerdestaat
Gekonsolideerdedemokrasie
Stagnasie
Sosiale polarisasie
Sosiale kohesie
Optimale groei
Four scenario themes for South Africa beyond 2019The Ubuntu Scenario
Ubuntu –Lovemore Mbigi
The bad road
ScenarioCry the Beloved
Country – Alan Paton
The Pretoria will
provide Scenario
Pretoria will provide and other myths - Clem Sunter
The Scenario Matrix
Fragmentedstate
Consolidateddemocracy
Optimal growth
Stagnation
Social polarisation
Social cohesion
Gefragmenteerdestaat
Gekonsolideerdedemokrasie
Stagnasie
Sosiale polarisasie
Sosiale kohesie
Optimale groei
Four scenario themes for South Africa beyond 2019The Ubuntu Scenario
Ubuntu –Lovemore Mbigi
The bad road
ScenarioCry the Beloved
Country – Alan Paton
The Pretoria will
provide Scenario
Pretoria will provide and other myths - Clem Sunter
The Long Road
ScenarioThe Long Road to Freedom
– Nelson Mandela
Theo Venter
Political and Policy Specialist
@theo_venter
Expropriation and the Wildlife Industry
Mechanistic view of the world
You must understanding the dynamics of change
You must be able to control the environment
You must have predictability
You must have stability
Current RealityWhere we are now
Current Future
Land reform as an inflection point:
A clear, single view of the future
Current Reality
Evolving Future
Change is more complex than we think - only the
parameters of change is knowable.
We assume the system is in dynamic equilibrium.
We have very little control over the external
environment.
The process is cyclical
Land reform as an inflection point:A limited set of possible future outcomes
Organismic view of the world
Current reality
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Social systems are extremely complex systems. We experience periods of stability followed by
periods of chaos. Systems seems to be in dynamic
disequilibrium Multiple outcomes the norm
rather than the exception
Land reform as an inflection point:A range of possible future outcomes
1. It is impossible to allow for land expropriation without compensation without affecting the rest of the economy. A measure which alters property rights in one sector sends a message that others may be due for the same fate.. To argue the change will only be introduced if the economy is unaffected is to say it won’t happen.
2. Political realities explain why the resolution was phrased in this way. One ANC faction wanted the constitutional change, the other did not. But the sceptics knew of widespread anger inside the ANC (and outside it) at the slow pace of land reform. Insisting that there was no need for a change would not have been credible – it would mean being seen to agree that whites should hold on to most productive land.
3. The only way out for the opponents was to agree on the principle but to hedge it with conditions which can’t be seen to endorse white privilege. The fact that they succeeded in including the conditions suggests that they are strong enough to prevent the change.
Caveats on land expropriation
4. What of the change virtually no-one noticed? This explains why a proposed change that would limit the power of traditional leaders over land passed largely unnoticed.
5. ANC briefing at the conference indicated that control over land should rest with communities, not chiefs. In principle, this should enable rural people to stop traditional leaders using land for their own purposes at their expense, which has brought “state capture” to the countryside and has triggered conflict.
6. The resolution may prove hard to implement because it may be difficult for rural people to hold traditional leaders to account. The Zulu King a point in case. It may never become law because traditional leaders may lobby against it.
Caveats on land expropriation (ii)
EWC Motion
That the House –
(1) notes that South Africa has a unique history of brutal dispossession
of land from black people by the settler colonial white minority;
(2) further notes that land dispossession left an indelible mark on the
social, political and economic landscape of the country, and has helped
design a society based on exploitation of black people and sustenance
of white domination;
(3) acknowledges that the African majority was only confined to 13%
of the land in South Africa while whites owned 87% at the end of the
apartheid regime in 1994;
(4) further acknowledges that the current land reform programme has
been fraught with difficulties since its inception in 1994, and that the
pace of land reform has been slow with only 8% of the land transferred
back to black people since 1994;
(5) acknowledges that the recent land audit claims that black people
own less than 2% of rural land, and less than 7% of urban land;
EWC Motion
(6) recognises that the current policy instruments, including the willing
buyer willing seller policy, and other provisions of Section 25 of the
Constitution may be hindering effective land reform.
(8) notes that in his State of the Nation Address, President Cyril
Ramaphosa, in recognising the original sin of land dispossession,
made a commitment that Government would continue the land reform
programme that entails expropriation of land without compensation,
making use of all mechanisms at the disposal of the state,
implemented in a manner that increases agricultural production,
improve food security and ensures that the land is returned to those
from whom it was taken under colonialism and apartheid and
undertake a process of consultation to determine the modalities of the
governing party resolution.
(9) further notes that any amendment to the Constitution to allow for
land expropriation without compensation must go through a
parliamentary process as Parliament is the only institution that can
amend the Constitution; and
EWC Motion
(10) with the concurrence of the NCOP instructs the Constitutional
Review Committee to
(a) review section 25 of the Constitution and other clauses where
necessary
(b) propose the necessary constitutional amendments where
applicable with regards to the kind of future land tenure regime
needed.
(e) report to the Assembly by no later than 30 August 2018.
(7) further recognises that this property clause makes it practically
impossible for those dispossessed of their land to get justice for
injustices perpetrated against them;
Point (7) deleted
What WRSA can consider to influence EWC
1. Be keenly aware of the political power plays and the potential risks
of falling in oppertunistc political traps;
2. Recognize the legitimate issues around land claims and unlck the
bottlenecks
3. Recognize the issue of land and dignity of the expropriation debate
4. Participate in the national forums where-ever and maintain unity of
mission and purpose.
5. Contribute to authoritative facts and figures – these are baseline
stuff
What WRSA can consider to influence EWC
6. Assisst where government does not have the capacity in a
cooperative and constructive way.
7. Promote small successes and exploit the low hanging fruit in the
wildlife industry.
8. Economic growth and tourism.
9. Job creation, skills transfer and employment in hunting and
conservation.
10. Expand the unique South African model of nature conservation.
What to expect from 2018-2019
1. All political eyes will be on the General Election of May 2019 (Chances of
early election very remote). Look beyond 2019.
2. Government finances will be extremely tight (2018 Budget).
3. Sovereign credit ratings will move sideways. Moody’s decided yesterday to
keep our rating in place and to move from Negative to stable.
4. South African economic growth may exceed 1.5% growth based on better
business climate and positive international signs in commodities, USA and
European economies. China growth ±5,4% and India ±7,0%.
5. State Owned Enterprises will have to consider partial privatization.
6. Pressure on Land Reform Policies (Expropriation without compensation)
constitute a huge political risk.
What to expect from 2018-20197. New content for Radical Economic Transformation will emerge in 2018.
ANC to return to the NDP.
8. Renewable energy will get boost, now that nuclear is regarded as
unaffordable.
9. There will be a renewed focus on more efficient national water
management policies and actions.
10. With Zuma gone, the domino’s will start falling (Cabinet just the first).
11. The re-engineering of the ANC (Zumafication vs Ramafication) will take
at least two years.
12. A sense of optimism in the business climate, balanced with consumer
fatigue and policy uncertainty.