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Land policies in Brazil: Questions of interest Gilberto Câmara, INPE Licence: Creative Commons ̶̶̶̶ By Attribution ̶̶̶̶ Non Commercial ̶̶̶̶ Share Alike http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/

Land policies in Brazil: Questions of interest Gilberto Câmara, INPE Licence: Creative Commons ̶̶̶̶ By Attribution ̶̶̶̶ Non Commercial ̶̶̶̶ Share Alike

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Page 1: Land policies in Brazil: Questions of interest Gilberto Câmara, INPE Licence: Creative Commons ̶̶̶̶ By Attribution ̶̶̶̶ Non Commercial ̶̶̶̶ Share Alike

Land policies in Brazil: Questions of interest

Gilberto Câmara, INPE

Licence: Creative Commons !!!! By Attribution !!!! Non Commercial !!!! Share Alikehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/

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Annual Crop – 1 Crop per season

Annual Crop – 2 Crops per season

Sugarcane

Crop Year 2002/2003

source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)

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Annual Crop – 1 Crop per season

Annual Crop – 2 Crops per season

Sugarcane

Crop Year 2010/2011

source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)

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MATO GROSSO – Sorriso: Crop Year 2002/2003

Annual Crop - 1 Crop Annual Crop - 2 Crops

source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)

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MATO GROSSO – Sorriso: Crop Year 2010/2011

Annual Crop - 1 Crop Annual Crop - 2 Crops

source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)

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Crop Year 2002/2003

Annual Crop – 1 Crop per season

Annual Crop – 2 Crops per season

Sugarcane source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)

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Crop Year 2010/2011

Annual Crop – 1 Crop per season

Annual Crop – 2 Crops per season

Sugarcane source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)

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SÃO PAULO – Barretos: Crop Year 2002/2003

1

Annual Crop - 1 Crop Annual Crop - 2 Crops Sugarcane

source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)

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SÃO PAULO – Barretos: Crop Year 2010/2011

1

Annual Crop - 1 Crop Annual Crop - 2 Crops Sugarcane

source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)

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Tradeoffs in double cropping?

27/2/13 | EDF-MMA 11source: Avery Cohn (NCAR)

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Early Rainy Season

Late Rainy Season

Increase in soya prices

No trend 1st crop ↑2nd crop ↓

Decrease in soya prices

1st crop ↓2nd crop ↑

No trend

27/2/13 | EDF-MMA 12

Tradeoffs in double cropping?

source: Avery Cohn (NCAR)

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13

Are biofuels replacing food production in Brazil?

source: B. Rudorff, INPE

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Are biofuels replacing food production in Brazil?

24% 26%30%

37% 41% 38%

26%

12%1% 1%

3% 3%3%

3%

7%17%

48%85%

98% 98%

1% 1%1%

1%

1%

1%

71% 70%65%

59%51%

44%

26%

3%1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Área Agrícola Cana-de-açúcar Citrus Pastagem Vegetação Arbórea

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Brazil: Do biofuels cause indirect land change?

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Brazil: Projected direct land change from biofuels (2020)

source: Lapola et al (PNAS, 2010)

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Brazil: Projected indirect land change from biofuels (2020)

source: Lapola et al (PNAS, 2010)source: Lapola et al (PNAS, 2010)

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• Current productivity : 118 million Animal Units;• Potential sustainable carrying capacity: 367 mi Animal Units;

Current productivity only 32-34% of potential

Current Productivity Potential Productivity

Bernardo Strassburg (Instituto Internacional para Sustentabilidade)

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Potential Allocation in 2040 that fulfil all demands

Brazil has already enough cleared land for all land-related needs, respecting environmental constraints, up to at least 2040;

An increase from 32-34% to 49-52% would suffice to meet all future demands without further deforestation

ResultsBernardo Strassburg (Instituto Internacional para Sustentabilidade)

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Sustainability?

NPV (net present value) of land in Amazonia for cattle

ranching Land speculation

Land purchase

Extensive ranching is only profitable for large farms

source: Bowman et al. (Land Use Policy, 2012)

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NPV (net present value) of land in Amazonia for cattle ranching

source: Silva and Barreto (Imazon, 2011)

No

regu

latio

nRe

gula

tion

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