Upload
others
View
6
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Land Modeling II - Biogeochemistry:
Ecosystem Modeling and Land Use
Dr. Peter Lawrence
Project Scientist
Terrestrial Science Section
Climate and Global Dynamics Division
(With thanks to TSS and IAM groups for their many contributions)
Slide 1 - Title
Understanding the Land Surface in the Climate System: Investigations with an Earth System Model (NCAR CESM)
The land is a critical interface through which:
1. Climate and climate change impacts
humans and ecosystems
and
2. Humans and ecosystems can force global
environmental and climate change
Absorbed
solar
Dif
fus
e s
ola
r
Do
wn
we
llin
g
lon
gw
av
e
Reflected solar
Em
itte
d
lon
gw
av
e
Se
ns
ible
he
at
flu
x
La
ten
t h
ea
t fl
ux
ua 0
Momentum flux
Wind speed
Ground
heat flux
Evaporation
Melt
Sublimation
Throughfall
Infiltra-
tion Surface runoff
Evaporation
Transpiration
Precipitation
Heterotrop.
respiration
Photosynthesis
Autotrophic
respiration
Litterfall
N
uptake
Vegetation C/N
Soil
C/N N mineral-
ization
Fire
Surface energy fluxes Hydrology
Biogeochemical cycles
Aerosol
deposition
Soil (sand, clay, organic)
Sub-surface runoff
Aquifer recharge
Phenology
BVOCs
Water table
Soil
Dust
Saturated fraction
N dep
N fix
Denitrification
N leaching
CH4
Root litter
N2O SCF
Surface
water
Bedrock Unconfined aquifer
Community Land Model (CLM4.5)
Community Land Model (CLM4) subgrid tiling structure
Gridcell
Glacier Wetland Lake
Landunit
Columns
PFTs
Urban Vegetated
Soil
Type 1
Gridcell
Glacier Lake
Landunit
Column
PFT
Urban Vegetated
Soil
Community Land Model (CLM 4.5) subgrid tiling structure
Crop
PFT1 PFT2 PFT3 PFT4 …
Unirrig Irrig Unirrig Irrig
Crop1 Crop1 Crop2 Crop2 …
L
G
UT,H,M
C1I V
PFT4
V
PFT3
V
PFT1
V
PFT2
C1U
C2U C2I
Roof
Sun Wall
Shade
Wall
Pervious
Impervious
TBD
MD
HD
Glacier
Lake
River
Routing
Runoff
River discharge
Urban
Land Use
Change
Wood harvest
Disturbance
Vegetation
Dynamics
Growth
Competition Wetland
Crops
Irrigation Flooding
Landscape-scale dynamics
Long-term dynamical processes that affect
fluxes in a changing environment
(disturbance, land use, succession) L
G
UT,H,M
C1I V
PFT4
V
PFT3
V
PFT1
V
PFT2
C1U
C2U C2I Oleson et al. 2013, CLM4.5 Technical Description, 430 pages
1. Surface Energy Fluxes: - Solar Energy Fluxes (Albedo – Vegetation, Snow, Soils) - Long Wave Energy Fluxes (Surface Temp & Emissivity) - Latent Heat Fluxes (Transpiration, Evaporation) - Sensible Heat Fluxes (Surface Temp & Roughness)
2. Surface Hydrology: - Rain and Snow (Vegetation, Snow Pack, Runoff) - Transpiration, Evaporation, Snow melt, Sublimation - Soil Hydrology 10 Soil Layers in CLM (Richards Eqns) - Deep Aquifer recharge and drainage (Top Model) 3. Biogeochemistry (Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles): - Plant Photosynthesis and Respiration
6 CO2 + 6 H2O + light -> C6H12O6 + 6 O2
- Carbohydrates are allocated to Leaves, Roots, Wood - Leaves, roots and wood become litter, debris, soil C - Organic decomposition and fire remove carbon - Nitrogen is cycled impacting growth and decay Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Surface in the Climate System
1. Surface Energy Fluxes: - Solar Energy Fluxes (Albedo – Vegetation, Snow, Soils) - Long Wave Energy Fluxes (Surface Temp & Emissivity) - Latent Heat Fluxes (Transpiration, Evaporation) - Sensible Heat Fluxes (Surface Temp & Roughness)
2. Surface Hydrology: - Rain and Snow (Vegetation, Snow Pack, Runoff) - Transpiration, Evaporation, Snow melt, Sublimation - Soil Hydrology 10 Soil Layers in CLM (Richards Eqns) - Deep Aquifer recharge and drainage (Top Model) 3. Biogeochemistry (Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles): - Plant Photosynthesis and Respiration
6 CO2 + 6 H2O + light -> C6H12O6 + 6 O2
- Carbohydrates are allocated to Leaves, Roots, Wood - Leaves, roots and wood become litter, debris, soil C - Organic decomposition and fire remove carbon - Nitrogen is cycled impacting growth and decay Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Surface in the Climate System
1. Surface Energy Fluxes: - Solar Energy Fluxes (Albedo – Vegetation, Snow, Soils) - Long Wave Energy Fluxes (Surface Temp & Emissivity) - Latent Heat Fluxes (Transpiration, Evaporation) - Sensible Heat Fluxes (Surface Temp & Roughness)
2. Surface Hydrology: - Rain and Snow (Vegetation, Snow Pack, Runoff) - Transpiration, Evaporation, Snow melt, Sublimation - Soil Hydrology 10 Soil Layers in CLM (Richards Eqns) - Deep Aquifer recharge and drainage (Top Model) 3. Biogeochemistry (Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles): - Plant Photosynthesis and Respiration
6 CO2 + 6 H2O + light -> C6H12O6 + 6 O2
- Carbohydrates are allocated to Leaves, Roots, Wood - Leaves, roots and wood become litter, debris, soil C - Organic decomposition and fire remove carbon - Nitrogen is cycled impacting growth and decay
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Surface in the Climate System
1. Changes in Atmospheric CO2 Impacts: - Photosynthesis rates through carbon availability - Transpiration rates through water use efficiency - Vegetation and air temperature - Rain, snow and evaporative demand through climate change with impacts on soil moisture
2. Changes in Aerosols and Nitrogen Impacts: - Direct and diffuse shortwave radiation - Nitrogen available for photosynthesis - Nitrogen available for allocating carbohydrate to plant tissues with feedbacks from canopy growth
3. Land Use and Land Cover Change Impacts: - Deforestation and Wood Harvesting - Agricultural expansion - Urbanization
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
CLM allows us to do Ecosystem Modeling
in a Changing World
1. Changes in Atmospheric CO2 Impacts: - Photosynthesis rates through carbon availability - Transpiration rates through water use efficiency - Vegetation and air temperature - Rain, snow and evaporative demand through climate change with impacts on soil moisture
2. Changes in Aerosols and Nitrogen Impacts: - Direct and diffuse shortwave radiation - Nitrogen available for photosynthesis - Nitrogen available for allocating carbohydrate to plant tissues with feedbacks from canopy growth
3. Land Use and Land Cover Change Impacts: - Deforestation and Wood Harvesting - Agricultural expansion - Urbanization
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
CLM allows us to do Ecosystem Modeling
in a Changing World
1. Changes in Atmospheric CO2 Impacts: - Photosynthesis rates through carbon availability - Transpiration rates through water use efficiency - Vegetation and air temperature - Rain, snow and evaporative demand through climate change with impacts on soil moisture
2. Changes in Aerosols and Nitrogen Impacts: - Direct and diffuse shortwave radiation - Nitrogen available for photosynthesis - Nitrogen available for allocating carbohydrate to plant tissues with feedbacks from canopy growth
3. Land Use and Land Cover Change Impacts: - Deforestation and Wood Harvesting - Agricultural expansion - Urbanization
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
CLM allows us to do Ecosystem Modeling
in a Changing World
Ecosystem Modeling in (CLM4 CN)
1. Changes in Atmospheric CO2: - Historical (1850 – 2005): 285ppm – 379ppm - RCP 4.5 (2006 – 2100): 380ppm – 538ppm - RCP 8.5 (2006 – 2100): 380ppm – 936ppm
2. Airborne Nitrogen Deposition: - Historical: 19 – 65 TgN/yr - RCP 4.5: 65 – 55 TgN/yr - RCP 8.5: 65 – 85 TgN/yr
3. Land Use and Land Cover Change: - Historical: Crop +9.8 ; Tree -5.5; Grass -3.3 106 km2 - RCP 4.5: Crop -4.2 ; Tree +3.0; Grass +1.0 106 km2 - RCP 8.5: Crop +2.8 ; Tree -3.5; Grass +0.9 106 km2
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Ecosystem Changes In the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project 5 – CMIP5
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Ecosystem Changes in CMIP5 – GPP No Land Use
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Ecosystem Changes in CMIP5 – Land Cover Change
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Ecosystem Changes in CMIP5 – Ecosys C No Land Use
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Ecosystem Changes in CMIP5 – Land Cover Change
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Ecosystem Changes in CMIP5 – RCP 4.5 GPP
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Ecosystem Changes in CMIP5 – RCP 8.5 GPP
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Ecosystem Changes in CMIP5 – RCP 4.5 Ecosys C
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Ecosystem Changes in CMIP5 – RCP 8.5 Ecosys C
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
CMIP5 Land Cover Change – Total Ecosystem Carbon
Ecosys Carbon Transient LCC No LCC Net LCC Em CMIP5 FF Em
Historical -61.3 PgC +68.4 PgC 129.7 PgC 313.8 PgC
RCP 4.5 +62.8 PgC +68.6 PgC 5.8 PgC 791.5 PgC
RCP 8.5 -43.4 PgC +119.8 PgC 163.2 PgC 1925.0 PgC
Gridcell
Glacier Lake
Landunit
Urban Vegetated Crop
Unirrig Irrig Unirrig Irrig
Crop1 Crop1 Crop2 Crop2 …
L
G
UT,H,M
C1I V
PFT4
V
PFT3
V
PFT1
V
PFT2
C1U
C2U C2I
TBD
MD
HD
Land Use
Change
Planting
Leaf
emergence
Grain fill Harvest
Crop Model
Irrig /
Fertilize
CLM subgrid tiling
structure
Interactive Crops in the CLM 4.5+
Following AgroIBIS (Kucharik & Brye, 2003) with new
Tropical Crops (Badger & Dirmeyer 2014)
Temperate corn, tropical corn, cotton, rice, sugarcane,
temperate soybean, tropical soybean, spring wheat
Phenology by GDD accumulators
Planting, leaf emergence, grain fill, maturity, harvest
C allocation + N limitation
Leaf area, height, crop yield
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Idealized CLM Crop Simulations
CLM Crop Allows us to investigate:
- Changes in Yield, Fertilizer and Irrigation for a Historical or for a Future
crop distribution and climate time period
- Break down contributions to changes by:
- Cropping Area
- Geographic Crop Distribution
- Crop Composition
- Fertilizer Application
- Irrigation
- Climate
- Atmospheric CO2
- Historical and SSP3 (high population growth) and RCP 8.5 (high CO2 and
climate change)
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Global Historical Analysis (All Crops) Area, Yields, N Fert
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Global Historical Analysis (All Crop) Yield
*Constant CO2 and Climate
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Global Historical Analysis (By Crop) Yield
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Global SSP3 RCP 8.5 Analysis (All Crops) Area, Yield, N
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Global SSP3 RCP8.5 Analysis (All Crop) Yield
*Constant CO2 and Climate
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Global SSP3 RCP 8.5 Analysis (By Crop) Yield
Understanding the Land Surface in the Climate System: Investigations with an Earth System Model (NCAR CESM)
The land is a critical interface through which:
1. Climate and climate change, impacts
humans and ecosystems
and
2. Humans and ecosystems can force global
environmental and climate change