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Labour market transitions of young women and men in Eastern Europe and Central Asia:
SWTS 2012-13 main findings
Sofia, 24 September 2015
Valentina BarcucciWork4Youth Project
Youth Employment Programme
Outline
I. Introducing the Work4Youth Project
II. The school-to-work transition survey (SWTS)
III. Main SWTS findings in EECA
IV. General conclusions
Outline
I. Introducing the Work4Youth Project
II. The school-to-work transition survey (SWTS)
III. Main SWTS findings in EECA
IV. General conclusions
Work4Youth: What is it?
Basic facts
Improving decent work opportunities for youth through knowledge and action Name
Duration Five years (2011 – 2016)
Budget 14.7 million USD
Objectives
Donor
• More and better LMI on youth labour markets – for government institutions,
social partners, national statistical offices, researchers, international organizations,
development partners, media.
• Better use of LMI – Strengthen link between LMI and policymaking (dialogue!)
Outline
I. Introducing the Work4Youth Project
II. The school-to-work transition survey (SWTS)
III. Main SWTS findings in EECA
IV. General conclusions
SWTS methodology
• Data is generated through the ILO school-to-work transition survey
(SWTS)
Household survey
Nationally-representative sample of up to 5,000 aged 15 to 29 years
Standardized questionnaire but nationally-adapted
Focus on household characteristics, aspirations and perceptions of youth,
extensive details on conditions of work and self-employment, means of
job search, history of economic activities
W4Y implements SWTSs in the following target countries:
Asia and the Pacific
Bangladesh*
Cambodia
Myanmar
Nepal
Samoa*
Viet Nam
W4Y Surveys
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Armenia
FYR Macedonia
Krygyzstan*
Moldova
Montenegro
Russian Federation
Serbia
Ukraine
Latin America and the
Caribbean
Brazil
Colombia*
Dominican Republic
El Salvador
Jamaica
Peru*
Middle East and North
Africa
Egypt
Jordan
Lebanon
Occupied Palestinian
Territory
Tunisia*
Sub-Saharan Africa
Benin
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Republic of Congo
South Africa
Tanzania*
Togo
Uganda
Zambia
* One round only. Survey will not be repeated in 2014/15. Red font: First round in 2014/15.
W4Y Publication Series from SWTS data
National reports: summarizing SWTS findings and policy implications
Regional reports: synthesizing regional youth labour market trends
Thematic reports: global analyses of specific topics (e.g. informal employment)
Global Employment Trends for Youth: two global summaries
Analytical briefs: short explorations of specific topics (eg. NEETs, elementary occupations)
Award-winning research: submissions of global calls for papers
www.ilo.org/w4y
SWTS methodology in EECA
Country Implementation partner Sample sizeGeographic
coverageReference period
Armenia National Statistical Service 3 216 National October–November 2012Kyrgyzstan National Statistical Commission 3 930 National July–September 2013Macedonia, FYR State Statistical Office 2 544 National July–September 2012Moldova, Rep. of National Bureau of Statistics 1 158 National January–March 2013Russian Federation Russian Federal State Statistics Service 3 890 11 regions July 2012Ukraine Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 3 526 National February 2013
2012-2013 surveys
Country Implementation partner Sample sizeGeographic
coverageReference period
Armenia National Statistical Service 2 710 National September-October 2014
Macedonia, FYR State Statistical Office 2 474 National July-September 2014
Moldova, Rep. of National Bureau of Statistics … National On-going
Montenegro Statistical Office … National On-going
Russian Federation Russian Federal State Statistics Service … 11 regions On-going
Serbia Statistical Office 3 508 National March-May 2015
Ukraine Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms … National On-going
2014-2015 surveys
Raw datasets are available: http://www.ilo.org/employment/areas/WCMS_234860/lang--en/index.htm
Tabulated data and indicators are available on the youthSTATs database: www.ilo.org/ilodata/youth
SWTSs meta-information:
Outline
I. Introducing the Work4Youth Project
II. The school-to-work transition survey (SWTS)
III. Main SWTS findings in EECA
IV. General conclusions
Standard labour market indicators (15-29)
EU-27 (2013)
Low-income countries (10 country
average, 2012-13)
EECA countries (6 country average, 2012-13)
EECA in comparison
Youth unemployment rate: 17.4 10.3 20.0 High
Youth LFPR: 56.5 59.8 50.9 Low
Youth NEET rate: 15.4 18.1 22.7 High
SWTS results in EECA
Sources: EECA and low-income countries: ILO SWTS; EU-27: Eurostat.
Unemployment and inactivity are high on average in surveyed countries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
SWTS results in EECA
Traditional framework may be policy-making-unfriendly
Traditional framework
Employed
Unemployed
Inactive
Alternative framework
Irregular employed
Regular employed
Relaxed unemployed
Inactive students
Inactive non-students
SWTS results in EECA: Key indicators
Armenia Kyrgyzstan FYR Macedonia Moldova Russia Ukraine0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Inactive non-students Unemployed (relaxed) In irregular employment Male Female
%
High shares of unemployed and inactive non-students
Educational attainment is high in the surveyed countries
SWTS results in EECA: Education
• Participation in TVET is strong compared to other regions; on average, 28% completed a technical programme.
Less
than
prim
ary
Primary
Secon
dary
voca
tiona
l
Secon
dary
gene
ral
Post-s
econ
dary
voca
tiona
l
Univers
ity an
d pos
t-grad
uate
studie
s0
20
40
60Youth by highest level of completed education
Armenia FYR Macedonia, FYR Kyrgyzstan Moldova, Rep. of Russian Fed. Ukraine Average
%
Investment in education brings positive returns
SWTS results in EECA: Education
Armenia Macedonia, FYR Moldova, Rep. of Russian Fed. Ukraine0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0Youth unemployment rate by level of completed education
Primary Secondary Tertiary
%
• Unemployment rates decrease as the level of education increases (exception: Armenia)
Investment in education brings positive returns
SWTS results in EECA: Education
Primary
Seconda
ry vo
cationa
l
Seconda
ry ge
neral
Post-s
econd
ary vo
cation
al
Universit
y and p
ostgr
aduate
0
15
30
45
Average length of transition (months) by level of education
Mon
ths
• The lenght of the transition shortens as level of education increases
• Wage premium for university education over primary education: 43%
But are youth leaving the education system with realistic expectations?
SWTS results in EECA: Education
Desired place of work Armenia Kyrgyzstan Macedonia, FYR
Moldova, Rep. of
Russian Fed.
Ukraine
Myself (own business/farm) 25.9 14.3 23.6 27.0 36.7 42.4Government/Public sector 45.5 64.9 60.2 28.2 33.5 23.0Private company 16.8 12.7 12.7 19.0 15.6 22.0Others 11.8 8.1 3.5 25.8 14.2 12.6
Current students by place/sector of work sought (%)
Unemployed youth by place/sector of work sought (%)
Desired place of work Armenia Kyrgyzstan Macedonia, FYR
Moldova, Rep. of
Russian Fed.
Ukraine
Myself (own business/farm) 18.3 17.6 13.9 55.7 43.0 33.2Government/Public sector 35.6 33.8 50.7 18.8 26.5 20.5Private company 35.9 34.4 32.9 20.9 20.0 29.7Others 10.2 14.2 2.5 4.6 10.5 16.6
SWTS results in EECA: Where do youth work?
Armenia Kyrgyzstan Macedonia, FYR Moldova, Rep. of Russian Fed. Ukraine0
102030405060708090
100
17.5
46.6
21.1 13.5 9.4 5.8
17.8
19.5
21.0
11.428.6
24.6
64.7
34.0
57.975.1
62.0 69.6
Youth employment by sector
Agriculture Industry Services
%
Services dominate but agriculture and industry have significant shares
SWTS results in EECA: Where do youth work?
Higher skilled; 22.5%
Mid-skilled occupations in services; 32.8%
Mid-skilled occupations in trades (manual work);
32.3%
Low-skilled; 12.4%
Occupation/skills level of employed youth (average)
End result: high shares of overeducation
• On average, 22% of youth work in a job for which they are ‘overqualified’.
Demand for ‘professional’ work is somewhat limited
Armenia Kyrgyzstan Macedonia, FYR
Moldova, Rep. of
Russian Fed. Ukraine Average0
102030405060708090
100
21.5 15.5 18.8 27.515.8 23.2 21.7
11.6 15.9 15.3 6.615.3 8.9 9.4
66.9 68.7 66.0 65.9 68.8 67.9 68.9
Employed youth by matching or unmatching qualifications
Overeducated Undereducated Matching qualifications
%
SWTS results in EECA: Unemployment
Long-term unemployment is widespread
• 3 in 4 unemployed youth in Macedonia have been looking longer than 12 months; 52% in Armenia and 31% in Ukraine
Youth unemployment too high and too long in most countries
Most unemployed youth look for work through informal networks
• But registration at employment centers is also fairly common (wide range: 5% in Moldova to 66% in Macedonia)
Main obstacles are ‘unavailability of sufficient jobs’ and ‘lack of work experience’.
SWTS results in EECA: Labour market transitions
Paths and lengths of transition vary across countries
Armenia Kyrgyzstan Macedonia, FYR Moldova, Rep. of Russian Fed. Ukraine Average05
10152025303540
1511
3633
24
12
22
Average length of transition (months)
Some commonalities regarding characteristics leading to a faster transition include:
• Education level of parents
• Education level of youth
• Level of household wealth
Outline
I. Introducing the Work4Youth Project
II. The school-to-work transition survey (SWTS)
III. Main SWTS findings in EECA
IV. General conclusions
General conclusions
Multiple barriers facing young people in their attempts to secure a smooth transition into the labour market.
The main concerns emerging from the SWTS indicators include:
• Alarmingly high levels of youth unemployment in some countries
• Widespread informal employment
• Skills mismatch
• Extensive gender inequalities.
• Low pay
Few youth take up entrepreneurial activities despite a regard for self-employment among current students.
Difficult transitions frequently lead young people to migrate.
Given the high educational attainment, un/underemployment and migration are missed returns on the investment in education made by families and society.