Labor Market Trends in the Berkshire Regioncommcorp.org/.../07/resources_lmt-ppt_2012-09-berkshire.pdf · 2016. 7. 31. · 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% Total(Residen9al(Popula9on(Growth(Annual#Growth#Rate#2000#to#2005M2007#

By Robert Clifford Policy Analyst New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston A joint project of Commonwealth CorporaBon and New England Public Policy Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Labor Market Trends in the!Berkshire Region!

September 27, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Berkshire Region

Motivation!

§  Understand the long-‐term labor force challenges facing the regional labor markets in MassachuseNs.

§  Provide detailed data on labor supply and demand trends to support workforce development policy discussions at a local level.

§  Build off the labor market development work of Harrington and Fogg (2008) and the demographics research of Sasser ModesBno (2009, 2010).

September 27, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Berkshire Region 2

Berkshire!


OTIS

BECKET

SHEFFIELD SANDISFIELD

MONTEREY

CLARKSBURG

ALFORDTYINGHAM

NEW MARLBOROUGH MOUNT WASHINGTON

GREAT BARRINGTON

EGREMONT

LEE

WES

TST

OC

KBR

IDG

E

STO

CKB

RID

GE

WASHINGTONLENOX

RICHMOND

PERUHINSDALE

PITTSFIELD

WINDSOR

CHESHIRE

DALTON

LANESBOROUGH

HAN

CO

CK

ADAMS

NEW ASHFORD SAVOY

FLORIDANORTH ADAMSWILLIAMSTOWN

3

*

Summary!

§  Berkshire has been slower to recover from the Great Recession than most other regional labor markets.

§  An aging workforce, declines in younger workers, and a shrinking populaBon will force the region to confront demographic challenges sooner than other regions.

§  Despite having smaller shares of residents and workers with a Bachelor’s Degree, Berkshire has post-‐secondary educaBonal aNainment levels that are comparable to the state.

§  Slow enrollment growth and declining degree compleBons may hamper the regional supply of educated labor.


Outline!

§  Labor Market Performance

§  Labor Supply

§  Labor Demand

§  The Pipeline: EducaBonal Supply of Post-‐Secondary Degrees


Labor Market Performance!

§  NaBonal and State Employment Trends

§  Performance of Regional Labor Markets

§  Employment Trends by Industry in Berkshire and MassachuseNs


Massachusetts is still far below its peak employment levels of the early 2000’s.!


0.94

0.96

0.98

1.00

1.02

1.04

1.06

Q1-2000

Q1-2001

Q1-2002

Q1-2003

Q1-2004

Q1-2005

Q1-2006

Q1-2007

Q1-2008

Q1-2009

Q1-2010

Q1-2011

Q1-2012

Total Non-Agricultural Employment, Q1-2000 to Q2-2012

NBER Recession United States Massachusetts

Through Q2-2012

Index 2000=1

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.

7

Berkshire’s employment situation has differed somewhat from that of Massachusetts in the past decade.!


0.5%

-‐4.3%

1.6%

-‐8.0%

-‐6.0%

-‐4.0%

-‐2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0% Percent Changes in Total Employment

Q1 2001-‐Q1 2008 Q4 2007-‐Q4 2009 Q4 2009-‐Q4 2011

Sources: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development (EOLWD), ES-202 and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).

8

Over 50 percent of the region’s employment is concentrated in just two supersectors.!


31.7% 27.2% 24.3%

19.0% 18.3% 20.7%

8.2% 15.2% 13.6%

13.8% 9.8% 10.5%

7.5% 7.9% 9.1%

4.1% 6.5% 5.9% 4.2% 4.1% 5.8% 5.1% 4.3% 3.5% 4.8% 3.9% 4.5% 1.6% 2.8% 2.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Berkshire MassachuseNs United States

Employment Distribu9on by Supersector, Q4 2011 InformaBon

ConstrucBon

Other services

Government

Financial AcBviBes

Manufacturing

Leisure & Hospitality

Professional & Business Services Trade, TransportaBon & UBliBes EducaBon & Health Services

Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202 and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.

9

Between recessions, Berkshire expanded employment in some industries that were flat or declining statewide.!


-‐50.0% -‐40.0% -‐30.0% -‐20.0% -‐10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%

Professional & Technical Services AdministraBve & Support Services

Health Care & Social Assistance ConstrucBon

Other Services Financial AcBviBes

AccommodaBon & Food Services Arts, Entertainment & RecreaBon

Retail Trade EducaBonal Services

Government TransportaBon & Warehousing

UBliBes Wholesale Trade

InformaBon Manufacturing

Management of Companies & Enterprises

Employment Changes, Q1-‐2001 to Q1-‐2008

MassachuseNs Berkshire

Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202.

10

The Great Recession hit a number of the region’s industries harder than their counterparts statewide.!


-‐25.0% -‐20.0% -‐15.0% -‐10.0% -‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

EducaBonal Services Government

UBliBes Health Care & Social Assistance

Professional & Technical Services Other Services

Arts, Entertainment & RecreaBon Retail Trade

TransportaBon & Warehousing AdministraBve & Support Services

Financial AcBviBes AccommodaBon & Food Services

InformaBon Manufacturing ConstrucBon

Wholesale Trade Management of Companies & Enterprises



63.7%


11

In the recovery to date, the region has continued to lose jobs in some industries and trail statewide employment gains in others.!


-‐10.0% -‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Wholesale Trade Arts, Entertainment, & RecreaBon

Retail Trade Government

AdministraBve & Support Services Management of Companies & Enterprises

Other Services AccommodaBon & Food Services Health Care & Social Assistance

EducaBonal Services Professional & Technical Services

InformaBon ConstrucBon

UBliBes Manufacturing

Financial AcBviBes TransportaBon & Warehousing




12

Labor Supply!

§  ResidenBal PopulaBon Changes and CharacterisBcs

§  Age and EducaBon of the Civilian Labor Force §  Trends and CharacterisBcs of the Unemployed §  CommuBng PaNerns


Berkshire was the only regional labor market to persistently decline in population over the course of the decade.!


-‐0.3% -‐0.4%

-‐1.5%

-‐1.0%

-‐0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5% Total Residen9al Popula9on Growth

Annual Growth Rate 2000 to 2005-‐2007

Annual Growth Rate 2005-‐2007 to 2008-‐2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) data files, 2005-2007 and 2008-2010 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Micro Sample (PUMS) data files.

14

Growth in immigrant and minority populations was not enough to offset losses of native born and white, non-Hispanic residents.!


Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

2000 2008-‐2010 Absolute Change

Annual Growth Rate

Resident PopulaBon 114,409 110,614 -‐3,795 -‐0.4% Gender Male 53,993 52,561 -‐1,432 -‐0.3% Female 60,416 58,053 -‐2,363 -‐0.4% Na9vity NaBve Born 110,266 104,058 -‐6,208 -‐0.6% Immigrant 4,143 6,556 2,413 5.2% Race/Ethnicity White, non-‐Hispanic 108,671 100,238 -‐8,433 -‐0.9% Black, non-‐Hispanic 1,887 2,591 704 3.6% Asian, non-‐Hispanic 744 1,334 590 6.7% Hispanic 1,722 3,870 2,148 9.4% Other race, non-‐Hispanic 1,385 2,581 1,196 7.2%

Demographic Characteris9cs of Berkshire

15

With nearly 50 percent of the labor force age 45 or older, Berkshire is one of the oldest labor forces in the state.!



12.2% 14.1% 12.9% 13.2% 15.2% 14.2%

19.9% 17.4% 23.3% 20.2% 22.7% 21.5%

26.0% 19.1%

27.0% 22.0%

26.8% 22.3%

25.1%

25.9%

22.4% 23.9%

21.8% 23.3%

12.5% 17.7%

10.8% 15.8%

10.2% 14.7%

4.3% 5.8% 3.6% 4.7% 3.3% 4.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 Berkshire

2008-‐2010

2000 MassachuseNs

2008-‐2010

2000 United States

2008-‐2010

Age Distribu9on of the Civilian Labor Force

Age 65+

Age 55-‐64

Age 45-‐54

Age 35-‐44

Age 25-‐34

Age 16-‐24

16

This was the result of rapid declines in younger age cohorts combined with fast growth among older cohorts in the region.!


1.9%

-‐1.2%

-‐3.1%

0.6%

4.2%

3.6%

1.3%

-‐0.6%

-‐1.3%

1.7%

5.4%

3.9%

-‐4.0% -‐3.0% -‐2.0% -‐1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

Age 16-‐24

Age 25-‐34

Age 35-‐44

Age 45-‐54

Age 55-‐64

Age 65+

Annual Growth in the Civilian Labor Force by Age, 2000 to 2008-‐2010



17

Education levels have risen in the past decade, but high school remains the most common level in attainment in Berkshire.!



10.6% 7.3% 11.5% 8.7% 15.5% 11.8%

31.6% 30.7% 24.3% 23.5%

26.9% 26.3%

22.3% 23.9%

19.1% 18.7%

23.9% 24.0%

8.5% 7.8%

7.9% 7.9%

7.2% 8.3%

16.1% 18.0% 22.3%

24.4%

17.2% 19.1%

10.9% 12.2% 14.8% 16.8% 9.4% 10.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 Berkshire

2008-‐2010

2000 MassachuseNs

2008-‐2010

2000 United States

2008-‐2010

Educa9onal ARainment of the Civilian Labor Force

Master's degree or more

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Some College, no degree

High School

Less than High School

18

The trends in educational attainment and aging leave the region with potential shortfalls of workers in nearly every category.!


Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000


High School

Some College

Associate's Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Master's Degree or more

Educa9onal ARainment of the Working-‐Age Popula9on (16+) in Berkshire

55-‐64

45-‐54

35-‐44

25-‐34

19

As Berkshire’s employment gains have trailed the state, the region’s unemployment rate has come closer to the state average.!


0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Unemployment Rates, 2000 to 2011

Berkshire Massachusetts United States

Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

20

The unemployed in Berkshire are disproportionally younger and have lower levels of educational attainment.!


14.1%

29.0%

17.4%

19.3% 19.1%

14.2%

25.9%

19.7%

17.7% 12.2%

5.8% 5.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Civilian Labor Force Unemployed

Age Distribu9on

Age 65+ Age 55-‐64 Age 45-‐54

Age 35-‐44 Age 25-‐34 Age 16-‐24


7.3% 16.6%

30.7%

43.7%

23.9%

17.2% 7.8%

3.2% 18.0%

13.6% 12.2%

5.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Civilian Labor Force Unemployed

Educa9on Distribu9on

Master's degree or more Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Some College, no degree High School Less than High School

21

Though a large majority of those employed in the region are residents, Berkshire has a net in-flow of commuters.!



Number Percent of Total Total number of employed persons living in Berkshire… 53,061 100.0% …that work in: Berkshire 48,167 90.8% Pioneer Valley 2,762 5.2% Other parts of MassachuseNs 224 0.4% New York 958 1.8% Vermont 338 0.6% ConnecBcut 335 0.6% Other places outside MassachuseNs 277 0.5%

Total number of persons working in Berkshire… 57,834 100.0% …that live in: Berkshire 48,167 83.3% Pioneer Valley 5,431 9.4% Other parts of MassachuseNs 282 0.5% New York 2,681 4.6% Vermont 764 1.3% ConnecBcut 255 0.4% Other places outside MassachuseNs 254 0.4%

Net in-‐commu9ng 4,773 -‐

22

Berkshire is one of only three regional labor markets in the state that has a net in-flow of workers.!


90.8% 83.3%

-‐40.0%

-‐20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0% Commu9ng PaRerns by Regional Labor Market

Share of residents that work in region Share of workers that live in region Difference (+ net in-‐flow/-‐ net out-‐flow)


23

Labor Demand!

§  EducaBonal ANainment of Employed

§  EducaBonal ANainment and ComposiBon of Industries and OccupaBons


Nearly two-thirds of the region’s workers have some form of post-secondary education.!



9.8% 6.5% 10.6% 7.6% 14.4% 10.7%

31.2% 28.7% 24.0% 22.7%

26.7% 25.7%

22.5% 25.2%

19.2% 18.6%

24.1% 24.0%

9.0% 8.9%

8.1% 8.2%

7.3% 8.5%

16.9% 18.6% 22.9%

25.4%

17.7% 19.9%

10.7% 12.2% 15.1% 17.5% 9.7% 11.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 Berkshire

2008-‐2010

2000 MassachuseNs

2008-‐2010

2000 United States

2008-‐2010

Educa9onal ARainment of Individuals Employed in Region

Master's degree or more

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Some College, no degree

High School


25

Berkshire industries have small shares of employees with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, but large shares of “middle-skill” workers.!



26.0%

41.6%

39.5%

41.2%

44.5%

33.4%

32.8%

13.9%

27.1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Health Care & Social Assistance

Retail Trade

Manufacturing

Educa9onal ARainment of Employees by Selected Major Industries in Berkshire

23.0%

42.1%

37.3%

33.2%

33.1%

23.8%

43.8%

24.8%

38.8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Health Care & Social Assistance

Retail Trade

Manufacturing

High School Degree or Less Some College or Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree or Higher

Educa9onal ARainment of Employees by Selected Major Industries in MassachuseRs

26

As a result post-secondary education levels of employees in Berkshire are much closer to their statewide counterparts.!



36.9%

8.0%

37.9%

60.3%

41.1%

39.0%

39.9%

32.5%

22.0%

53.0%

22.2%

7.1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Office & AdministraBve Support

Healthcare PracBBoners & Technical

Sales & Related

ProducBon

Educa9onal ARainment of Employees by Selected Occupa9ons in Berkshire

35.3%

6.4%

31.5%

65.6%

40.4%

29.9%

31.0%

23.2%

24.3%

63.8%

37.5%

11.1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Office & AdministraBve Support

Healthcare PracBBoners &

Sales

ProducBon


Educa9onal ARainment of Employees by Selected Occupa9on in MassachuseRs

27

The Pipeline: Educational Supply of Post-Secondary Degrees!

§  Enrollment PaNerns

§  Degree CompleBons

§  List of InsBtuBons by Degree Type

§ Major Fields of Study by Degree Type


Enrollments at institutions in Berkshire have trailed both state and national trends in the past decade.!


-‐8.0%

-‐4.0%

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

Berkshire MA US Berkshire MA US

Annual Growth in Enrollments, 2000 to 2010

Less-‐than-‐Two-‐Year InsBtuBons Two-‐Year InsBtuBons Four-‐Year InsBtuBons

Part-‐Time Enrollment

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.

Full-‐Time Enrollment

29

Berkshire was the only regional labor market seeing a decline in post-secondary degree or program.!


-‐2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

Berkshire MA US

Annual Growth in Comple9ons, 2000 to 2010

CerBficates Associate's Degrees Bachelor's Degrees


30

There were only five higher education institutions granting certificates and degrees in 2010.!


InsBtuBon Type Public or Private

Degrees Awarded

Share of Degree Type Completed in Region

CerBficates

Mildred Elley School Inc. Less than Two Year Private 127 64.8%

Berkshire Community College Two Year Public 69 35.2% NA -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐

Associate's

Berkshire Community College Two Year Public 221 63.9%

Bard College at Simon's Rock Four Year Private 125 36.1% NA -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐

Bachelor's Williams College Four Year Private 525 58.9%

MassachuseNs College of Liberal Arts Four Year Public 315 35.3%

Bard College at Simon's Rock Four Year Private 52 5.8%


Top Ins9tu9ons Gran9ng Degrees in Berkshire, 2010

31

While Certificate completions are volatile, Health Sciences was consistently the most common field of study in the past decade.!


0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Legal EducaBon Business Services Health Sciences

Annual Cer9ficate Comple9ons by Major in Berkshire, 2000 to 2010


32

Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences accounted for over 50 percent of Associate’s Degrees completed in most years.!


0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Engineering & Computer Sciences Services Business Health Sciences Arts, HumaniBes, & Social Sciences

Annual Associate’s Degree Comple9ons by Major in Berkshire, 2000 to 2010


33

A large majority of the Bachelor’s Degrees completed in Berkshire are in Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences.!


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

EducaBon Engineering & Computer Sciences Business Science & MathemaBcs Arts, HumaniBes, & Social Sciences

Annual Bachelor’s Degree Comple9ons by Major in Berkshire, 2000 to 2010


34

Summary!

§  The Great Recession conBnues to weigh on the region with slow employment growth and elevated unemployment.

§  While Berkshire has a lower share of residents and workers with a Bachelor’s Degree, the region has a larger share of workers with “middle-‐skills” relaBve to MassachuseNs.

§  With one of the oldest labor forces in the state, large declines of younger workers, and liNle change in the regional supply of post-‐secondary educated labor, demographics present a challenge for the Berkshire regional labor market.

§  Given such trends, what should be done to ensure the future economic vitality of the Berkshire region moving forward?



Thank You !

[email protected]!!

www.bostonfed.org/neppc!

Key Industries in the “Innovation Economy”:  Information and Professional & Technical Services!



23.9%

10.2%

24.7%

18.1%

51.4%

71.7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Berkshire

MassachuseNs


Educa9onal ARainment of Employees by in the Innova9on Industries

5.8% 11.0%

94.2% 89.0%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Berkshire MassachuseNs

Innova9on Industries Share of Employment

Other Industries

InnovaBon Industries

3.9%

-‐0.1%

-‐2.2%

-‐3.7%

-‐6.0% -‐4.0% -‐2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

MassachuseNs

Berkshire

Changes in Employment in Innova9on Industries

Q4 2007-‐Q4 2009

Q4 2009-‐Q4 2011

37

Documents

Labor Market Trends in the Berkshire Regioncommcorp.org/.../07/resources_lmt-ppt_2012-09-berkshire.pdf · 2016. 7. 31. · 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% Total(Residen9al(Popula9on(Growth(Annual#Growth#Rate#2000#to#2005M2007#