Labor Market Report Poland

Lingling Zhang, Raphael Becker

University of BonnOctober 15, 2014

Log GDP1

0.6

10.

81

11

1.2

11.

4

1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1

Date

log GDP HP - Filter Trend

Log GDP and HP Trend

Deviations in Log GDP-.

04-.

020

.02

.04

gdp

cycl

e

1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1

Date

Real GDP Percentage Deviation from HP- trend

Unemployment and GDP Growth0

51

01

52

0U

nem

ploy

me

nt R

ate

1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1

Date

Poland GDP_Growth GDP-Growth Filtered

Poland Poland Filtered

Total Unemployment Rate and GDP-Growth

Labor Market Statistics

Poland US Poland US

Unemployment 13.1% 6.1% SD (unempl.) 4.36% 1.82%

SD (vacancies) 0.20% 0.40%

SD (GDP) 1.05% 0.66%

SD(u)/SD(GDP) 4.15 2.76

Table 1 Labor Market Statistics Poland vs. US

60

65

70

75

80

Lab

or F

orc

e P

artic

ipa

tion

Rat

e

1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1

Date

Poland US

Total Labor Force Participation Rate

Total Labor Force Participation

20

40

60

80

Lab

or F

orc

e P

artic

ipa

tion

Rat

e

2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1Date

Age 15 - 24 Age 25 - 54Age 54 - 55

Labor Force Participation Rate by Age

Labor Force by Age

51

01

52

0U

nem

ploy

me

nt R

ate

2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1Date

EU PolandUS

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate

01

02

03

04

0U

nem

ploy

me

nt R

ate

2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1Date

Age 15 - 24 Age 25 - 54Age 55 - 65

Unemployment Rate by Age

Unemployment Rate by Age

22

.53

3.5

Ratio

of U

nem

plo

ymen

t R

ate

s

1998m1 2000m1 2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1Date

EU US

Poland

Youth-Adult Unemployment Ratio

Youth – Adult Unemployment Ratio

02

04

06

08

01

00S

har

e o

f Un

emp

loym

ent b

y D

ura

tion

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Date

Poland < 1 Year Poland > 1 YearUS < 1 Year US > 1 Year

Duration of Unemployment

Duration of Unemployment

02

04

06

0L

ong

Te

rm U

nem

ploy

me

nt

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015Date

Poland Males US Males

Poland Females US Females

Long Term Unemployment in % of Total Unemployment

Long Term Unemployment

3040

5060

70S

hare

of L

abor

Mar

ket P

olic

ies

in %

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Date

LMP Measures (Cat. 2 - 7) LMP Supports (Cat. 8 - 9)

Labor Market Policies

Labor Market Policies

New

Zea

land

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

Can

ada

Uni

ted

Kin

...

Chi

le

Aus

tral

ia

Est

onia

Irel

and

Hun

gary

Japa

n

Sw

itzer

land

Fin

land

Kor

ea

Isra

el

Slo

vak

Rep

.

Spa

in

Nor

way

Den

mar

k

Pol

and

Gre

ece

Aus

tria

Icel

and

Tur

key

Sw

eden

Mex

ico

Cze

ch R

ep.

Slo

veni

a

Por

tuga

l

Luxe

mbo

urg

Ital

y

Fra

nce

Net

herla

nds

Bel

gium

Ger

man

y

Sau

di A

rabi

a

Bra

zil

Sou

th A

fric

a

Rus

sian

Fed

.

Indi

a

Arg

entin

a

Latv

ia

Indo

nesi

a

Chi

na

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Collective dismissals Individual dismissals OECD average: 2.29Scale 0-6

Protection of permanent workers against individual and collective dismissals, 2013*

Beveridge Curve

01

23

4V

aca

ncy

Rat

e in

%

4 6 8 10 12Unemployment Rate in %

US (2001Q1 - 2014Q2) Poland (2007Q1 - 2014Q2)

Beveridge Curve Poland vs US