Labor Market Info! Data Driven Decisions:

Aligning Education and Industry

Luke GreinerRegional Labor Market Analyst, Central and SouthwestMinnesota Dept. of Employment & Economic DevelopmentLabor Market Information Officehttp://mn.gov/deed/data/

Labor Market Information Office

• Each state produces employment and economic statistics in cooperation with U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics

• LMI includes employment statistics, unemployment rates, wages and salaries, job projections and more

• LMI is the foundation for informed, market-responsive planning

How is the job market doing?

Minnesota Numbers - September

• Employment growth steady

–MN sheds 5,700 jobs in September

–35,250 jobs over-the-year (1.2% growth)

• Unemployment edges down to 3.8%

• Labor force participation rate at 69.7%

• Avg. hourly earnings at $25.94

Labor Force declining

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

Jan

-76

Jun

-77

No

v-7

8

Ap

r-8

0

Sep

-81

Feb

-83

Jul-

84

Dec

-85

May

-87

Oct

-88

Mar

-90

Au

g-9

1

Jan

-93

Jun

-94

No

v-9

5

Ap

r-9

7

Sep

-98

Feb

-00

Jul-

01

Dec

-02

May

-04

Oct

-05

Mar

-07

Au

g-0

8

Jan

-10

Jun

-11

No

v-1

2

Ap

r-1

4

Minnesota U.S.

Peaked at 75.4% in 2000

Baby-Boomers leaving the labor force

Regional Unemployment Rates

Unemployment up-close

Industry Statistics

Minnesota Industry Trends

Data are September 2014 to September 2015

-3,709

-2,170

-1,615

-429

-357

146

3,744

5,312

9,714

11,109

13,497

-6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,00012,00014,00016,000

Government

Construction

Other Services

Logging & Mining

Information

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

Trade, Trans. & Utilities

Leisure & Hospitality

Prof. & Business Services

Ed. & Health Services

Alignment is pivotal to meet industry needs and students expectations

Using data to drive policy decisions in education and industry can make better long run strategies. A few ways to make this happen in your community:

• Know what occupations are highly demanded by regional employers and who’s currently hiring

• Find out the true outcomes of higher education programs

• Consider the employment outlook for the region. Where are the jobs now and where will they be in the next ten years?

Occupations In Demand tool • A great place to check personal observations or

individual experiences against data.

• Comprehensive list of more than 300 occupations ranked in relative demand based on;

- Job vacancies

- Number of existing jobs

- Seasonality of job vacancies

- Unemployment insurance claims data

http://mn.gov/deed/data/data-tools/oid/

Occupations In Demand

What are the top 3 occupations in demand in our region?

1. Nursing Assistants

2. Heavy Tractor Trailer Truck Drivers

3. Welders

- $24,856- $40,403

- $43,902

56%

14%

30%

Southwest OID Educational Breakdown

HS Diploma or Less

Some College, Certificate,or Associate Degree

Bachelors Degree orHigher

Top demanded occupations in Southwest Minnesota by education

HS Diploma or Less Some College to Associate Degree Bachelors Degree or Higher

Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers Nursing Assistants Family and General Practitioners

$43,902 $24,856 $194,199

Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Inc Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Mechanical Engineers

$18,418 $40,403 $76,149

Personal Care Aides Registered Nurses Industrial Engineers

$22,605 $62,221 $93,608

Farm Equipment Mechanics and Service Technicians LPN's and Licensed Vocational Nurses Financial Managers

$40,358 $39,366 $84,885

Cashiers First-Line Supervisors of Production Workers Accountants and Auditors

$19,140 $51,935 $57,341

Customer Service Representatives Medical Assistants Nurse Practitioners

$38,340 $30,593 $96,993

Home Health Aides Wind Turbine Service Technicians Loan Officers

$22,922 $49,172 $79,640

Slaughterers and Meat Packers Computer User Support Specialists Network and Computer Systems Administrators

$27,909 $50,588 $60,369

Social and Human Service Assistants Industrial Engineering Technicians Securities, Commodities, and Financial Services

$36,517 $47,560 $71,734

Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Speciali Surgical Technologists Internists, General

$38,001 $51,307 $183,537

Using Occupations In Demand• Many highly demanded jobs that do not require higher

education could benefit from career/technical courses in high school.

• Preparing students for highly demanded jobs within their region helps fill the entry level jobs that many companies struggle to fill, AND provides opportunity for students to make a life in their community.

• Using data helps leverage employer support and collaboration with resources at local schools.

• After gaining entry level employment, incumbent worker training can be used to upskill the employees, thus creating new entry level openings.

What about the current job openings?

• Its easy to see “Now Hiring” signs everywhere you look. But what do the data say?

• In the second quarter of 2015 there were about 6,000 job openings in our region

• The most openings were in food prep and serving related (23.4%), followed by transportation and material moving (9.5%), and production (6.2%)

• 22%-34% of openings require some type of higher education

• About a third require a certificate or license

Job Vacancy Survey (MN)

DEED’s Job Vacancy Survey• Great tool to see what occupations are being

filled and industries are hiring in your region.

• Looking at the job requirements can help guide conversation between companies and education, both secondary and post-secondary.

Retaining the future labor Force

• If only 1- of- 3 demanded occupations require a bachelors degree or more, what happens when almost 2-in-3 students plan to go to a 4- year college?

• Only 11% plan to go to a 2- year college

• 24% of students plan to stay in SW Minnesota

• When asked what is the main reason some people chose to leave, half said better career opportunities

Graduate Employment Outcomes

Who should use the tool?

• Prospective students, to set realistic expectations for employment and wages following graduation

• Parents and career counselors, to help prospective students plan their education

• Education program planners interested in aligning program offerings to market demand

• Policy makers interested in evaluating the state’s returns on investments in higher education

Five key aspects of employment

1. EMPLOYABILITY (in-state employment rate)

2. FULLTIME AND YEAR-ROUND STATUS(job quality and job stability)

3. EARNINGS

4. TOP INDUSTRIES OF EMPLOYMENT

5. TOP REGIONS OF EMPLOYMENT

A GEO analysis…

Instructional Program Bachelors Degree Award

Number of Bachelor Degree

Graduates

Annual Median Earnings of All

Employed Graduates in 2nd year after

graduation

Percent working full-

time and year-round in 2nd Year

Median Earnings of Full-time

Employed in 2nd Year

We

ll A

lign

ed

Engineering 1,217 $55,489 69% $59,124

Construction trades 25 $53,675 76% $55,472

Computer and information science 647 $51,990 68% $56,277

Health profession 2,577 $50,021 40% $59,646

Engineering technologies 165 $47,688 68% $51,960

Business, management, and marketing 6,272 $38,667 64% $45,289

Po

orl

yA

lign

ed

Visual and performing arts 1,562 $17,833 29% $31,039

Transportation and materials moving 51 $17,731 35% $26,447

Communications technologies/technician 21 $17,629 N/A* N/A*

Area, ethnic, cultural, gender, and group studies

168 $17,540 28% $30,300

History 443 $16,513 29% $34,154

Theology and religious vocations 337 $15,741 30% $33,185

A step further…0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Professional & Technical Services

Information

Manufacturing

Finance & Insurance

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Accommodation & Food Service

Professional & Technical Services

Educational Services

Health Care & Social Assistance

Visual and performing arts

Computer and information science

• Comparison of any other pair of majors from previous chart would reveal the same discrepancies in employment outcome

What does this information tell us?

• If wage and employment rates are the outcome of interaction between supply and demand, they tell us a great deal about which fields of study are in demand and which are not

• Providing these data to young people selecting a major, and to incumbent workers looking to change careers, would allow them to better self-select into areas with better opportunities

• Data for all fields of study are on our website at: http://mn.gov/deed/data/data-tools/graduate-employment-outcomes/

Minnesota’s Employment Outlook

• According to DEED’s 2012-2022 Employment Projections data, about 34.2% of jobs required postsecondary education– 967,827 out of 2,832,962 jobs (+8.1% from 2012 to 2022)– Remaining 65.8% of jobs require high school diploma or less

• +6.6% from 2012 to 2022– Most jobs require on-the-job training or related work experience

The Georgetown Number• Ever heard the line that “74% of jobs in Minnesota will require

postsecondary education” by 2020?• Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce

• 71.7% of Minnesota’s labor force already has some college or a degree

• DEED Projects only ~ 35% of ALL Jobs by 2022 will require Postsecondary Education

Excellent Video on Education in New Economyhttps://vimeo.com/67277269

Invest in Education• The cost of an education is a very worthwhile investment!

• With a gap of $23,764 last year; over $1 million over 45 years!

$84,396

$89,128

$69,108

$57,616

$40,404

$33,852

$24,544

$ 43,004

$37,804

annual

Expectations for Minnesota’s future job growth• With the labor market fully recovered from the recent

recession, current projections show a more balanced outlook through 2022

• Job growth over the next decade will average 0.7% a year, a slower pace than previous projections– National projections at 1.0% a year

• The key macroeconomic assumptions driving the 2012-2022 national industry projections are:– Demographic changes drive demand for healthcare & related services– Labor force growth will slow below 0.5% annually

(baby-boomers leaving)– GDP projected to increase at an annual rate of 2.6%– Economy will reach full-employment by 2022

Industry Projections• Southwest Minnesota is projected to grow 2.7% (slowest in state)

– 5,685 net new jobs– Health Care & Social Assistance may add +4,076 jobs (+16.0%)– Fast growth in Construction, Professional & Technical Services,

Administrative Support & WasteManagement (Temp. Services)

• 48,000 replacement openings– Only personal care & service

will have more new jobs– Biggest needs in sales, office &

admin. support, food prep,production, management,transportation, education,healthcare practitioners & support, installation & repair

Other LMI products and publicationsLocal Look Regional Blog Monthly blog covering regional economic trends Workforce insights. Occupations In Demand, Unemployment Rates

Minnesota Economic TRENDS Quarterly magazine on economic topics Subscriptions available free of charge or on-line

Minnesota Employment REVIEW Monthly magazine on economic data and regional trends Includes Minnesota business development Available exclusively on-line

http://mn.gov/deed/review

http://mn.gov/deed/trends

http://mn.gov/deed/data/locallook/

Thank you!Please let me know how I can help!

Luke GreinerRegional Labor Market Analyst, Central and Southwest Minnesota

Minnesota Dept. of Employment and Economic Development

Labor Market Information OfficePhone: (320)-308-5378

Luke.greiner@state.mn.us