LABOR MARKET DIGEST

SPRING 2019

QOQ YOY4 Quarters

RollingTotal Nonfarm Employment q p pCivilian Labor Force p p pUnemployment Rate p q qAverage Weekly Hours p q pReal Hourly Earnings q q qArrow Up = IncreaseArrow Down = Decrease

Q3 2018Q4 2018

Q4 2017Q4 2018

Q1 – Q4 2017Q1 – Q4 2018

TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT

0.16%

0.86%

1.80%

MSA VA US

PERC

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CHAN

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From a quarterly perspective, the year-over-year (Q42017 vs Q4 2018), seasonally adjusted workforce forthe metropolitan area can be summarized as: MoreWorkers working Less Hours for Less Pay.

Percent & Total Change, Q4 2017 – Q4 2018

QUARTERLY WORKFORCE PERSPECTIVE

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

1.02%

0.37%

1.47%

MSA VA US

PERC

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The Virginia Beach – Norfolk – Newport NewsMetropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) saw little change,but still positive growth in seasonally adjusted TotalNonfarm Employment in Q4 2018 over Q4 2017. TheMSA added a net 1,233 jobs (0.16%), trailing both thestate and the nation. Nonfarm Employment grew to itshighest point, 792,500 in Q2 2018, but declinedquarter-over-quarter through year’s end. Moving fromQ3 to Q4 2018 the MSA shed -1,933 jobs (-0.24%).The trend is worth watching in that from a quarterlyperspective, MSA Nonfarm Employment hovers just1.1% above pre-recession peak employment. Sincereaching the mark Q2 2017, the region hasmaintained above pre-recession peak employment,add a net total of 6,500 jobs through Q4 2018. Of noteare recent monthly figures which show an uptick inNonfarm Employment of 3,900 (0.5%) movingthrough the first two months of 2019.

Non-military members of the labor force, 16 years orolder, grew faster in the MSA than the state year-over-year; a growth of 1.02% compared to 0.37%,respectively. According to the household survey (BLSCurrent Population Survey), this is an addition of8,655 jobs, Q4 2017 to Q4 2018. The increasesuggests a growth in number of employed persons, incontrast to job counts, as indicated by Total NonfarmEmployment from the establishment survey (BLSCurrent Employment Statistics). Q3 to Q4 2018 theCivilian Labor Force grew by 0.18% (1,563), at thesame rate as the state. 2018, as a whole, the MSACivilian Labor Force grew by 0.42% over 2017.

1,233

34,000

2.65M

Percent & Total Change, Q4 2017 – Q4 2018

8,655

15,823

2.35M

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AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS

REAL HOURLY EARNINGS

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Q4 2017 Q3 2018 Q4 2018

MSA 4.0 3.1 3.2

VA 3.4 2.8 2.8

US 4.1 3.8 3.8

SPRING 2019

Q3 2009

$22.65

Q1 2013

$18.80

Q4 2018

$20.61

$18

$19

$20

$21

$22

$23

$24

$25

Q1 2

007

Q1 2

008

Q1 2

009

Q1 2

010

Q1 2

011

Q1 2

012

Q1 2

013

Q1 2

014

Q1 2

015

Q1 2

016

Q1 2

017

Q1 2

018

VIRGINIA BEACH-NORFOLK-NEWPORT NEWS MSASource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Adjusted for

Inflation using CPI for All Urban Consumers: All Items

The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentagepoints to 3.2%, Q3 to Q4 2018, and the number ofunemployed persons increased by 490 to 27,468. Theseasonally adjusted metropolitan unemployment ratemaintained below 4%, quarter-over-quarter for 2018,a quarterly trend that had not been seen since 2007.The trend is consistent with those of both the stateand the nation.

Although unemployment is at an 18 year low, it isimportant to note the opposing trends in hours workedand real hourly earnings, as discussed below, for afull understanding of what record low unemploymentrepresents for the economy.

Average Weekly Hours Worked increased quarter-over-quarter, Q3 2018 to Q4 2018, by 0.2 hours (12minutes). Comparing Q4 2018 to the year prior, hoursare, however, down by 0.1 (6 minutes). This is -4.7%below the Q3 2009 peak, but is still 2.1% above theQ4 2013 trough. Changes in weekly hours can beattributed to fluctuations in the workforce make-up ofemployment type: part-time, full-time, temporaryemployment situations, etc. Relatively low averageweekly hours worked in light of a lower rate ofincrease in Total Nonfarm Employment (employerreported jobs) contrasted with a higher rate ofincrease in the Civilian Labor Force (individuals whomay hold more than one job), suggests the presenceof a larger cohort of part-time or temporary workers.

Q4 2018 inflation adjusted average hourly earningsdeclined to $20.61. This is a decreased in RealHourly Earnings for the MSA by -1.7% (-$0.36/hour)in Q4 2018 from Q3 2018. Both the state and thenation posted increases over the same period of$0.08/hour and $0.10/hour, respectively.

Year-over-year, Real Hourly Earnings for the MSAdeclined by -$0.83/hour (-3.9%) from Q4 2017 to Q42018 (shown in the graph to the right). Annualaverages from 2017 to 2018 also reflect a decline inearnings (-3.21%) which is similarly divergent fromstate and national trends, both from a historical ten-year and a near-term two-year perspective, runningquarter over quarter, 2017 through 2018.

VA Trend Line

US Trend Line

MSA

Q3 2009

36.0

Q4 2013

33.6

Q4 2017

34.4

Q4 2018

34.3

33.0

33.5

34.0

34.5

35.0

35.5

36.0

36.5

Q1 2

007

Q1 2

008

Q1 2

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Q1 2

010

Q1 2

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Q1 2

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Q1 2

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Q1 2

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Q1 2

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Q1 2

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Q1 2

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Average Weekly Hours

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+4.5% +0.5%

Hampton Roads Workforce Council / Greater Peninsula Workforce Board Labor Market Digest – Spring 2019. Unless otherwise noted, data covers the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News Metropolitan Statistical Area (“MSA”) for the three months ending December 2018 (Fourth Quarter). The Hampton Roads Workforce Council oversees federally funded workforce development programs, which assist businesses in accessing qualified workers and jobseekers in finding suitable job openings and bolstering their earning power through training. The Hampton Roads Workforce Council is responsible for developing workforce policy and administering workforce development initiatives in Virginia's Workforce Investment Area 16, which include the eight localities that comprise the Virginia Career Works - Hampton Roads Region. The Board conducts its operations through the "Hampton Roads Workforce Council" organization. The Greater Peninsula Workforce Board is a group of community leaders appointed by local elected officials and tasked with planning and oversight responsibilities for workforce development programs and services within the seven localities that comprise the Virginia Career Works – Greater Peninsula Region. The Board conducts its operations through the "Greater Peninsula Workforce Council" organization.

Funded by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration, Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act. Equal Opportunity Employer/Program (Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities.)

STAY CONNNECTED! @hamptonroadsworkforcecouncil | 757.314.2370 | www.vcwhamptonroads.org | 757.766.4900 | www.vcwpeninsula.com@greaterpeninsulaworkforceboard