LA CADENA PRODUCTIVA DE LA LECHE EN MEXICO

SEPT 2011CIPLELA CADENA PRODUCTIVA DE LA LECHE EN MEXICO

Lic. Vicente Gmez CoboPresidente Anglac y AnpleRepresentante SPBLVicepresidente CNAConsejero CNOG

4GATT(OMC)TLCChileAPECOCDETLCCosta RicaTLCNicaraguaTLCUETLCGuatemalaHondurasEl SalvadorTLCANEUACanadTLCBoliviaTLCColombiaVenezuelaTLCIsraelTLC AELCIslandiaNoruegaLiechtensteinSuiza198619921993199419951998200020012002-03Acuerdo Marco con Mercosur(2002)BrasilArgentinaUruguayParaguay 2004 -05TLCUruguayTLCJapnACEBrasilAdhesin 10 NEM*NEM*: A partir de mayo de 2004 se integrarn a la Unin Europea los siguientes pases: Chipre, Repblica Checa, Estonia, Hungra, Latvia, Lituania, Malta, Polonia, la Repblica Eslovaca y Eslovenia. Recientemente Rumania y Bulgara

AAP PanamACEArgentinaACE CubaACE PerAAPEcuadorAAPParaguay12 Tratados de Libre Comercio con 45 pases7 Acuerdos bilaterales complementarios con 7 pases de Amrica LatinaEn total se suman 19 TLCs y Acuerdos comerciales con poco ms 50 pases.

TLCs Y ACUERDOS COMERCIALES DE MXICO

Fuente: FAO, Julio de 2011El ndice de Precios de los Alimentos de la FAO sigue estando en niveles histricos altos, por arriba incluso del ao 2008.

El ndice en junio fue 39% mayor que el mismo mes del ao anterior.LOS PRECIOS DE ALIMENTOS ESTN EN SUS MXIMOS HISTRICOS

Cadena de la Produccin Lctea

Qu vean los fundadoresen su entorno en 1970?1. Costos muy elevados de proceso y comercializacin.3. Mercado de compra de leche a precios muy bajos por oferta ilimitada de polvo.2. Negocios sin mayor crecimiento y de resultados econmicos muy modestos.4. Surgen problemas Sindicales en ranchos.5. Importancia fundamental el sistema fiscal.SECTOR LECHERO 1968 - 1970PROMOCIN SECTOR POPULARCTM, CNC2 OCT 1968CONSOLIDACINCORPORATIVISMOPROTECCIN SALARIAL (Control de Precios)PROTECCIN AL EMPLEO (Gobierno Compra Empresas) IMPACTO !!!

Los importadores netos de alimento sufren un deterioro en la balanza comercialHabr ganadores y perdedores ante la crisis alimentaria

9MENSAJE DE LA FAO EN LA COP 16 (DICIEMBRE DEL 2010)Las inundaciones y la sequa pone de relieve la vulnerabilidad de los sistemas mundiales de produccin de alimentos y los mercados agrcolas.

Es probable que estos sucesos se repitan cada vez con mayor frecuencia e intensidad.

11RECOMENDACIN FAO Es recomendable que los pases se abastezcan internamente por lo menos en un 75% de su demanda total de alimentos.

Situacion Agropecuaria NacionalFuente: SAGARPA1.27.08.331.3131.5Consumo anual en millones de toneladasCONSUMO DE GRANOS

1213IICA, BID, CEPAL, FIDA, Banco Mundial y USAID

Fuente: 2004. Ms que alimentos en la mesa: la real contribucin de la agricultura a la economa. INCLUYENDO transformacin (agroindustria), los insumos y los servicios.Producto Interno Bruto del Sector Agropecuario en Mxico Ao 2004(En porcentaje respecto del PIB total de la economa)

1414

Entre 42 pases en desarrollo a lo largo de 1981-2003, un crecimiento del 1% originadoen el sector agropecuario aument el gasto de los tres deciles ms pobres en al menos2.5 veces la magnitud en que lo gener el crecimiento originado en el resto de la economa. BANCO MUNDIAL: IMPORTANTES EFECTOS DISTRIBUTIVOS INFORME SOBRE EL DESARROLLO MUNDIAL 2008.

15Comn denominador:

SECTOR AGROPECUARIO (ALIMENTO)

Estar en la parte alta de las prioridades de los Pases en las prximas dcadas..CONCLUSIN

16El Indicador de apoyo al productor (IAP) mide el valor monetario anual de las transferencias brutas de los consumidores y de los contribuyentes a los productores agropecuarios, medidas a nivel del campo.

Mxico 14%. OCDE 29%, Unin Europea 32%.

INDICE DE APOYO AL PRODUCTOR (OCDE)

Globalizacin Suma de MercadosOferta de leche a la industria en MxicoProduccin Nacional 10,712 millones de litrosProduccin EUA- consumo EUA 13,636 millones de litrosCupos OMC 840 millones de litrosTotal 25,188 millones de litros

+Mercado leche cruda mexicana (libre)+Mercado leche cruda EUA (intervenido)+Mercados leche cruda OMC (intervenidos)Suma mercado de leche cruda distorsionado

Demanda de leche de la industria en MxicoTotal 13,500millones de litros

COMO LLEGALA LECHE EN POLVO IMPORTADA AL CONSUMIDOR?InsumosagrcolasCompradelechepordiversasindustrias

ProduccindeforrajesProduccindelecheMltiplesprocesospara suaprovecha-miento

Distribucin,mayoristas,Institucio-nales, etc.

CONSUMIDORES

Compra decerealeso alimen-tos balan-ceadosLa leche en polvo le compite a la leche cruda del ganaderoLa leche en polvo puede sustituir a la leche cruda en muchos de los procesos industriales.Leche enPolvo Importada

18

Industria lctea mexicana

El precio de la leche cruda esta determinado por el precio de la leche en polvo importadaEl precio de la leche cruda mexicana no tiene relacin con el precio que paga el consumidor por la leche procesada

PRECIO DE VENTA DE LECHE EN ESTADOS UNIDOS Y PRECIO EQUIVALENTE DE IMPORTACIN DE LECHE EN POLVO A MXICO (dlares por ton)Fuente: Agricultural and Applied Economics, UW Madison

21Uno de los factores que ms contribuyen en la volatilidad de los precios de la leche en Mxico es la estacionalidad de la produccin regional. Los meses con sobre-produccin dan origen al desplome de los precios del producto afectando principalmente a productores no integrados.

22EntidadProduccin excedente(miles de litros)Estado de Mxico67,120Veracruz37,555Jalisco28,035Michoacn22,377Oaxaca17,769Puebla13,228Chihuahua11,983Guanajuato10,258

2223

PRECIOS DE LECHE AL PRODUCTOR

Sector lechero actual

EDAD *RECOMENDACINLTS /ANUALFAOPOBLACIONDEMANDAMILLONES DE LITROSPRODUCCION NACIONALMILLONES DE LITROSMENOS DE 1014622,000,0003,212DE 10 A 1925625,000,0006,400DE 20 A 6921959,000,00012,991MAS DE 702196,000,0001,340TOTAL23,91710,712DEMANDA POTENCIAL DE LECHE EN MEXICO

campaa de promocin al consumo de leche

1Costos de produccin2Los multiplicadores econmicos3Los multiplicadores de los productos lcteos4Beneficio social de la importacin5Costos sociales de la importacin6Saldo social en el Corto y Largo Plazo7Dinmica y eficiencia del mercado de la leche en Mxico8El impacto de la importacin de leche: en produccin, en precio y en hato9El impacto en el corto y largo plazoLos productos lcteos y la sociedad Los productos lcteos en Mxico (Introduccin)29

29

Los multiplicadores econmicosMultiplicadores obtenidos en base a la matriz de insumo-producto con datos de 2003Industria5 014 634.651.39Servicios7 812 330.141.46Trabajo763 089.981.33Ganadera 10 593 836.531.25Agricultura2 603 887.161.2830

30

Los multiplicadores de los productos lcteos (sistema intensivo)Multiplicadores obtenidos en base a la matriz de insumo-producto con datos de 2003Polvo1.75Pasteurizada1.75Leche bronca1.33Deslactosada1.76UHT1.76Manchego1.73Yogurt1.80Saborizada1.76Crema1.813110.612.3

16.94.746.45Cantidad (miles de millones de litros)Precio ($/L)Precio al productor que en el largo plazo satisface la demanda nacional$6.4520092011

$7.10 por litroOfertaDemanda33

El precio al productor en el largo plazo que abastecera la demanda nacional es de$6.45

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Importaciones vs Produccin NacionalImportaciones

Produccin Nacional5.5 millones de litros leche diarios(2 mil millones litros/ao)Equivale: 220,000 vacas Derrama Econmica: 273 mdd

(545 mdd M 818 mdd PN) Inversin = 2,640 millones de dlares

(6 mil dlares por el productor y 6 mil dlares por la industria, esto es 12,000 dlares por vaca)Empleos Directos = 44,000

(5 vacas generan en promedio 1 empleo)35Red de valor total : control total del proceso, desde la produccin de leche hasta los puntos de venta del producto.

Red de valor integrada: control desde la produccin de la leche hasta la logstica de distribucin para comercializacin .pasando por todos los servicios y apoyos al ganadero.

Red de valor asociada: alianzas estratgicas atreves de contratos, asociaciones o simples acuerdos aprovechando las ventajas competitivas que ellas tienes para apoyar al ganadero.

Industria integrada en redes de valorFuente: Scantrack RY 2005-2010 Jun y 2011 MarDatos en MM ltsConsumo Histrico canal de AutoserviciosTotal CiudadesTotal VDM62067672476978579580117%9%43%30%24%15%29%24%24625827428628628427614%11%51%22%21%19%39%17%Pasteurizadas VolumenEspecializadas Frmulas Lcteas

Industria integrada en redes de valor40

Qu retos enfrentaban?

Desde el origen los objetivoshan sido...... la totalidad de la leche producida por los socios

Misin ActualPropiciar una mejor rentabilidad en las empresas de sus socios. Mediante la ejecucin eficiente de los servicios que le presta a los mismos.

Evolucin y Consolidacin

Diferenciacin en distribucinLder en costo operativoIdentificada como mexicanaFinancieramente consolidadaDiversificada en negociosRentable

Visin

Visin

Con una cultura organizacional propia que asegure el cumplimiento estricto de la Misin de la empresa.

Con objetivos precisos que faciliten el desarrollo de estrategias vlidas para la atencin de los mismos.

Consolidar el prestigio institucional de la organizacin en los mbitos, poltico, social y econmico en los cuales interviene.

Comprometida con la conservacin ecolgica.

GRACIAS!

Vicente Gmez Coboanglac@anglac.org.mx

Hoja1PIB Sector AgropPIB Agrop. AmpliadoPas/ Total/ TotalArgentina4.632.2Brasil4.326.2Canad1.815.3Chile5.632.1Colombia8.032.1Mxico4.624.5Per6.631.8Uruguay6.234.8Estados Unidos0.78.1Venezuela4.020.5Costa Rica11.332.5

Hoja2

Hoja3

Grfico1023.84849447893.9323.93784079453.9523.90331195793.9224.51695241433.8824.13298378263.8724.4109265233.8824.33816393873.8924.18440954683.8924.71400767524.0225.13144279184.1424.70104813784.124.82302026354.1223.5400122284.0123.48490855284.0423.9990315444424.85889840983.8824.60582570373.8224.98705106743.8622.8511336353.8322.41601971843.8722.37169339164.0722.87238213964.0924.47884290494.1124.34873953164.1625.46599725064.0726.34511236494.1627.19054196724.2330.54370704454.2235.33354576784.2237.44261254714.2644.33014203934.5547.08239199254.850.24594474955.2150.84771061075.4750.89947473215.250.07188602055.0547.9063095914.844.57925261714.9141.84131584644.8439.97058937824.837.33153530314.7835.4676835254.8235.07347886314.8133.99797703254.8534.70031552274.9238.51701538385.238.23504345075.233.0153068415.0530.72399856014.7829.54217778144.7530.05352184234.727.21151957864.6127.05973203284.5326.96614.42

FRACCION 04021001PRECIO AL PRODUCTORPRECIO FRACCIONPRECIO PRODUCTORPRECIOS NOMINAL FRACCION 04021001 VS PRECIO PRODUCTOR

MAMDP_CMEXP_MONTP_PUEByearMONTHpprodIPC_AGPIPC_BEBPSCPMENTPSCRPMENRP_CMRP_MORP_PURPPRODRPC_NPC_RPP_NPP_R8.19499.11428.122005Ene3.9374.767202178575.65810823753.553.4314.74807120854.587573026810.831489434412.046560788210.73249145295.25631545058.63582511.41427561593.714.9620687848.19449.14238.2342005Feb3.9575.151921018975.99387171623.523.4324.68384567194.564088254210.782974751712.030312173310.83508421675.25602000118.6782511.41967082873.71254.93999348218.2019.12178.16732005Mar3.9276.602376452976.20506348373.393.4334.42545017144.477667872510.761752074111.969939506710.71752929095.11733471148.65292511.35479009463.6654.78444686678.20919.0688.26532005Abr3.8879.124718944276.35815175233.373.2744.25909885684.132716101410.750784050711.875614838610.8243845754.90365090938.652611.33159957573.64.54977919428.23049.04778.26382005May3.8780.457761672476.58541533183.323.2754.12638871754.064244309110.74669369411.813868163810.79030513084.80997720998.647411.29118378813.58254.45264686168.22429.11748.26222005Jun3.8877.451730217376.81719784323.323.2764.28654077924.221984442210.706196308811.868956764910.75566439815.00957175418.680311.29994355913.58754.63191718248.23259.08198.26742005Jul3.8979.050555047976.87390195193.323.3974.19984400874.288394936610.709096053411.814022404710.75449507584.92090156448.66592511.27290898473.62254.58251051858.21799.05798.23332005Ago3.8978.660509238176.98036621563.453.3984.38593651814.309659361310.675319440511.76650676710.69532454154.94530233498.6417511.2259143793.6554.64655013738.57519.37468.48822005Sep4.0278.301558411577.28020260273.563.3994.54652509124.32941574711.09611480212.130661779210.98366685665.13399743458.95312511.58527630423.74754.78598392688.67589.46848.65482005Oct4.1476.827546250777.56270827563.783.74104.92011027884.868045619711.185529996212.207412828311.15845512935.38869221019.0668511.68970269553.955.14138507978.68749.48688.61762005Nov4.175.581133478677.74098729453.933.74115.19971032344.94832483711.174800195312.203086595811.08501486785.42463417969.0696511.66649706373.96755.24932587998.69219.48818.61622005Dic4.1278.130571912878.04534856673.923.74125.01724216794.786858598911.137242846112.157162693511.03999169495.27322391119.07112511.6228899823.9755.08763714738.71349.51718.66842006Ene4.0180.314201781678.38721413753.863.5134.80612384164.357884312311.115843439412.141138200611.05843611794.99289031219.10411.61413898963.8454.78744719458.70339.54048.72006Feb4.0479.904558346678.74066110973.673.5144.59297951954.380225699811.053120303212.116230503511.048929335.05603195069.12102511.583627663.81254.77131728018.71499.52948.67092006Mar477.729153315378.95724172873.413.5154.38702836014.502815032311.037492963512.069063953310.98176659945.14607432279.1111511.53934686743.72754.79549800958.7139.52588.66782006Abr3.8877.044348673179.08601057063.263.09164.2313291714.010677036311.017119130412.044860944810.95996616535.03606048579.108111.51670179633.52754.57853179478.69599.5228.66662006May3.8277.490365452879.25204465293.213.09174.14245045983.987592498710.972461389612.014831972710.93549073464.92964509559.10162511.48440401743.4854.49733328748.70879.5178.64412006Junio3.8675.872150108579.47802866263.143.09184.13854094754.07264061410.957367899711.974378529710.87608757475.08750575089.096711.44555313343.48754.59654826588.71689.51538.72006Julio3.8376.02574311979.68816133683.113.14194.09071963314.130179951110.938638630611.940669530310.91755645265.03776726529.1118511.4343835363.47754.57410852878.7119.5128.70222006Agosto3.8778.869106525379.8574899173.23.14204.05735546023.981280045310.908181573311.91121835910.89716194324.90686425979.109311.40694505863.524.46309100628.7239.52078.67392006Septiembre4.0784.148082613280.47034730453.373.14214.00484466833.731516990610.840017835411.83131466310.77900157084.83671151339.10957511.3204121833.66254.35244617148.95479.92818.89512006Octubre4.0985.406533608780.86999538743.53.56224.09804713074.168299367211.072957228612.276617492610.99925869594.78886078999.426511.65636272743.814.46101701949.174310.05239.06482006Nov4.1182.694602992781.38612631843.63.56234.35336753514.304996784811.272560097212.35136804611.13801628124.97009460269.58592511.77832811763.8454.64963838139.18910.03699.06052006Dic4.1684.616217030682.02554828513.723.56244.3963203874.207231338111.202607226812.236309552111.04594871894.91631527159.58082511.68029376253.94.6090455679.179810.0529.04752007Ene4.0784.771086254383.22184038013.713.78254.37649222624.459067551211.030517900212.07856009210.87154520824.80116532639.58282511.51479582313.90754.60947260759.17810.04419.04612007Feb4.1684.561426303583.50192037553.693.78264.36369176984.470123276310.991363981512.028585635910.83340354254.91950074869.57807511.47048469893.94754.66820413589.195510.05659.04612007Mar4.2384.466285505983.62878469963.663.78274.3330897984.47515831610.995615962912.025165780110.81696933965.00791525839.5886511.46572921573.9754.70601965779.196810.04919.16472007Abr4.2284.717025790683.82247799513.713.84284.37928499664.532737031510.971758673811.98855037510.93346345664.98128913369.61492511.47058072013.99754.71865007389.214110.04489.34372007May4.2282.254055879284.12397785533.723.84294.52257333724.668462799710.953000838711.940471974911.10705917415.13044609769.6618511.485250990744.86298208319.582710.4789.352007Jun4.2680.941949274584.5458040343.743.84304.62059541874.744140750811.33432949112.393282102811.05909406965.26303114549.97217511.79499694154.0254.97269961519.642710.52269.652007Jul4.5582.296921513385.06502086663.914.14314.75108901785.030564842411.335681695912.370066912111.34426336665.528760877510.08447511.85501972174.28755.20979390389.631510.5359.68382007Ago4.883.69831028485.50081571624.14.14324.89854572464.946336414611.264804808412.321519872911.32597381545.734882799610.09632511.80845459244.465.32866193469.711910.98139.72122007Sep5.2187.110195488586.12426648714.34.14334.93627637494.752600974911.27661273212.750529494111.28741108235.980930212310.34892512.01627070064.7155.412684443610.104111.024310.12432007Oct5.4785.817762141186.99037771784.434.49345.16210151545.232017111611.615192697312.673010842411.63841365636.373971848610.5692512.14990700964.9655.785515581110.158911.03710.18072007Nov5.286.70928025887.59920422934.424.49355.09749358645.178223122911.597023157212.599429523511.6219092285.997051278210.603412.1044478584.82755.567454816410.239811.040910.44252007Dic5.0587.511335708788.19492493044.424.49365.05077423885.130763876111.610418635912.518747545511.84025045465.770680974210.69102512.12204104544.75255.430725015810.321411.035310.69152008Ene4.887.667277129488.96246015044.424.58375.04178998685.224298221611.601972317912.404445629512.01799048945.475247044510.77087512.10721351664.655.304145574310.330311.033710.64352008Feb4.9186.146146773889.39917481054.434.58385.14242385285.316546556711.555252072412.342060229711.90559087665.699616505110.760312.03624085214.70755.464550854910.336811.035710.66252008Mar4.8488.14747773590.03393746324.364.58394.94625610635.195837836411.481004042712.257266882811.8427565215.490798062910.76767511.95957358234.6555.280922517110.34211.008310.36092008Abr4.889.522403514990.9646221764.384.47404.89263003234.993163526111.369255159412.101737726911.39003246775.361786336810.67987511.74069077024.61255.15234155810.383111.001610.34412008May4.7888.373305170392.02812514864.274.47414.83177583075.05808851611.282529099911.954606249211.2401507515.408873178110.682611.60797308734.5755.176902675710.37741110.31642008Jun4.8288.130292076392.65675837984.324.47424.9018332955.0720358411.199830623811.871772974111.13399624645.469175111610.6734511.51934320464.60755.228054839510.369511.009910.34122008Jul4.8189.467454532493.08825813134.54.62435.0297619665.163888951711.139428546811.827377825111.10902729045.376256679210.68262511.47580287194.6855.23654106910.628211.37210.62022008Ago4.8590.163330069293.72353598384.654.62445.1573072965.124034345711.339947739312.133558428711.33141199655.379126964710.998111.73461914834.74255.259898892810.828911.504510.84052008Sep4.9291.12788914294.21988403484.714.62455.16856040935.069798108511.493221532712.210267628611.5055331595.399005777811.169611.85482248724.79255.259092518410.807811.591810.86082008Oct5.292.147733410894.45864208754.744.59465.14391382684.981131743711.441832913512.271825789411.49794212585.643112215111.2130511.87085665454.93255.352817500110.758411.59710.9052008Nov5.295.004754458295.22551973234.744.59474.98922398894.831337153811.297811794812.178458077811.45176212295.473410283211.2143511.77662251834.93255.191845427210.857311.74910.9872008Dic5.0597.686804018896.53438630844.544.59484.64750592024.698689906111.247080356712.170792656711.3814366265.169582576411.33557511.7425255744.80754.921340244811.207112.061611.54422009Ene4.7897.022744830797.59480470394.734.6494.87514552214.741156321711.483295687712.358854589211.82870341824.926679829911.71862512.00742707114.72254.867415375911.263412.092111.51812009Feb4.7595.691535069997.88794680384.724.6504.93251570954.807112767711.506421748312.35300197311.7666172154.96386644511.74142511.99476072734.7054.916840341811.279612.144511.55582009Mar4.797.506721959498.50682567264.714.6514.83043620524.7176234711.450577077312.328587300511.73096373894.82018050211.781111.95967885434.67754.797105169811.309912.141211.48712009Abr4.61100.236190495599.21187117544.474.47524.45946716244.459467162411.399744673712.237648434811.57835233214.599137274911.7698511.86334846884.544.529302218611.325912.120611.4972009May4.53100.204900063599.77371135354.344.47534.33112552114.460859695711.351587353412.148089747911.52307541144.52073700711.76602511.79271056514.46754.458364807711.338812.156511.600620094.421001004.344.47544.344.4711.338812.156511.60064.4211.813111.81314.41254.412511.332412.097111.336320094.344.555511.71572511.352812.124211.34420094.374.555611.736320094.414.555720094.474.655820094.354.655920094.574.6560

&APage &P

Grfico1-0.0061017280.50632911390.074381173-0.25510204080.1729787675-1.28865979380.4313277605-1.55038759690.356265655-1.28865979380.4567263893-1.0282776350.2798768542-1.0282776354.43376753622.23880597015.54300467975.07246376815.66913000444.14634146345.72013667584.61165048545.95060481561.99501246885.84146243382.72277227725.96679250481.755.9462871571-1.28865979385.7613358019-2.87958115185.8998472792-1.81347150265.9872889134-2.61096605745.924692917-1.55038759696.05410982463.43980343988.48492970173.911980440110.67547387814.379562043810.818369795.528846153810.7289919173.439803439810.71148398345.528846153810.8814093857.092198581610.8940066116.872037914711.06130821246.872037914714.48234839877.746478873215.014466902413.626373626414.91564138518.12515.620012561924.568138195818.895299927828.153564899519.332801779724.423076923119.970116603822.178217821820.602825198118.12520.671229296319.959266802420.72111291718.801652892620.760974666418.12521.074630890617.782426778221.031279511218.464730290520.971117218818.295218295222.894751698318.969072164924.323800201320.121951219524.176058032224.423076923123.827892623424.423076923124.521750343122.178217821826.877604375817.782426778227.243105989317.263157894727.347600978816.382978723427.542241752814.750542299327.64460219513.245033112627.726919956311.0859728507

PRECIO CONSUMIDORPRECIO PRODUCTORENERO 2005 MAYO 2009PORCENTAJEPORCENTAJE DE INCREMENTO PRECIO PRODUCTOR VS CONSUMIDOR CIUDAD DE MEXICO NOMINALBASE ENERO 2005 MAYO 2009

Grfico2-0.4499192829-0.0056211607-0.6480112144-2.7158813502-0.7506930033-7.1918769849-0.7890402646-9.2794252687-1.1702860846-4.925444899-1.1428918035-6.8161063927-1.4629069859-6.28906170972.3848470597-2.38251026743.16516572662.45656560863.07218701813.10285861742.74532409850.32064752.5580965271-5.27600491712.0051430071-3.96127836661.8663978298-2.14223738111.6849204749-4.3735567791.2847796881-6.62665057421.1488020342-3.3181230250.9795478197-4.33819535010.7030698781-7.1216804120.0786751565-8.67539724032.1806983375-9.76129148653.9127816483-5.75886116353.312780542-6.91575214881.8043437997-9.47999273521.4545469276-6.84652201781.4926542456-4.96015166661.278457206-5.52118757871.1093891625-2.45338028034.43643408270.12760127614.44783362014.92778459833.84663011368.34484968233.947313862512.11541910936.747225666517.53469304066.60112265412.35166739996.70888127218.91342851926.64096467773.99857015066.26349501927.77773476855.65729796764.27046505394.7299996131.96708484173.99768227092.82050849863.28881035573.89198840322.76440672992.23094312394.48377996632.28311238985.75758586452.64290006775.33431560946.85431637424.12754583733.96635409083.6951004988-1.67775391535.6761253133-6.69082692515.8657011596-5.89155668815.4066064854-9.04810407684.9848067267-14.28916199554.5817197438-16.27120627334.4741115957-18.9211640381

PRECIO CONSUMIDORPRECIO PRODUCTORENERO 2005 MAYO 2009}PORCENTAJEPORCENTAJE DE INCREMENTO PRECIO CONSUMIDOR VS PRECIO PRODUCTOR CIUDAD DE MEXICO REAL BASE ENERO 2005 MAYO 2009

Hoja1P_CMpprodP_CMRpprod8.19100.000.03.93100.0010.83100.005.2563154505100.008.19100.01(0.01)3.9599.490.5110.78100.45(0.45)5.2560200011100.01(0.01)8.2099.930.073.92100.26(0.26)10.76100.65(0.65)5.1173347114102.72(2.72)8.2199.830.173.88101.29(1.29)10.75100.75(0.75)4.9036509093107.19(7.19)8.2399.570.433.87101.55(1.55)10.75100.79(0.79)4.8099772099109.28(9.28)8.2299.640.363.88101.29(1.29)10.71101.17(1.17)5.0095717541104.93(4.93)8.2399.540.463.89101.03(1.03)10.71101.14(1.14)4.9209015644106.82(6.82)8.2299.720.283.89101.03(1.03)10.68101.46(1.46)4.9453023349106.29(6.29)8.5895.574.434.0297.762.2411.1097.622.385.1339974345102.38(2.38)8.6894.465.544.1494.935.0711.1996.833.175.388692210197.542.468.6994.335.674.1095.854.1511.1796.933.075.424634179696.903.108.6994.285.724.1295.394.6111.1497.252.755.273223911199.680.328.7194.055.954.0198.002.0011.1297.442.564.9928903121105.28(5.28)8.7094.165.844.0497.282.7211.0597.992.015.0560319506103.96(3.96)8.7194.035.974.0098.251.7511.0498.131.875.1460743227102.14(2.14)8.7194.055.953.88101.29(1.29)11.0298.321.685.0360604857104.37(4.37)8.7094.245.763.82102.88(2.88)10.9798.721.284.9296450955106.63(6.63)8.7194.105.903.86101.81(1.81)10.9698.851.155.0875057508103.32(3.32)8.7294.015.993.83102.61(2.61)10.9499.020.985.0377672652104.34(4.34)8.7194.085.923.87101.55(1.55)10.9199.300.704.9068642597107.12(7.12)8.7293.956.054.0796.563.4410.8499.920.084.8367115133108.68(8.68)8.9591.528.484.0996.093.9111.0797.822.184.7888607899109.76(9.76)9.1789.3210.684.1195.624.3811.2796.093.914.9700946026105.76(5.76)9.1989.1810.824.1694.475.5311.2096.693.314.9163152715106.92(6.92)9.1889.2710.734.0796.563.4411.0398.201.804.8011653263109.48(9.48)9.1889.2910.714.1694.475.5310.9998.551.454.9195007486106.85(6.85)9.2089.1210.884.2392.917.0911.0098.511.495.0079152583104.96(4.96)9.2089.1110.894.2293.136.8710.9798.721.284.9812891336105.52(5.52)9.2188.9411.064.2293.136.8710.9598.891.115.1304460976102.45(2.45)9.5885.5214.484.2692.257.7511.3395.564.445.263031145499.870.139.6484.9915.014.5586.3713.6311.3495.554.455.528760877595.074.939.6385.0814.924.8081.8818.1311.2696.153.855.734882799691.668.349.7184.3815.625.2175.4324.5711.2896.053.955.980930212387.8812.1210.1081.1018.905.4771.8528.1511.6293.256.756.373971848682.4717.5310.1680.6719.335.2075.5824.4211.6093.406.605.997051278287.6512.3510.2480.0319.975.0577.8222.1811.6193.296.715.770680974291.098.9110.3279.4020.604.8081.8818.1311.6093.366.645.475247044596.004.0010.3379.3320.674.9180.0419.9611.5693.746.265.699616505192.227.7810.3479.2820.724.8481.2018.8011.4894.345.665.490798062995.734.2710.3479.2420.764.8081.8818.1311.3795.274.735.361786336898.031.9710.3878.9321.074.7882.2217.7811.2896.004.005.408873178197.182.8210.3878.9721.034.8281.5418.4611.2096.713.295.469175111696.113.8910.3779.0320.974.8181.7018.3011.1497.242.765.376256679297.772.2310.6377.1122.894.8581.0318.9711.3495.524.485.379126964797.722.2810.8375.6824.324.9279.8820.1211.4994.245.765.399005777897.362.6410.8175.8224.185.2075.5824.4211.4494.675.335.643112215193.156.8510.7676.1723.835.2075.5824.4211.3095.874.135.473410283296.033.9710.8675.4824.525.0577.8222.1811.2596.303.705.1695825764101.68(1.68)11.2173.1226.884.7882.2217.7811.4894.325.684.9266798299106.69(6.69)11.2672.7627.244.7582.7417.2611.5194.135.874.963866445105.89(5.89)11.2872.6527.354.7083.6216.3811.4594.595.414.820180502109.05(9.05)11.3172.4627.544.6185.2514.7511.4095.024.984.5991372749114.29(14.29)11.3372.3627.644.5386.7513.2511.3595.424.584.520737007116.27(16.27)11.3472.2727.734.4288.9111.0911.3495.534.474.42118.92(18.92)0.00.00.00.0

Hoja2Obs P_9 P_29 P_24 P_11 P_32 P_20PRECIOS REALES%REAL CONSUMPRECIOS REALES%REAL FRACCIONPRECIO NOMINALES%NOMINAL FRACCINPRECIO NOMINALES%NOMINAL CONSUMIDORPRECIO NOMINALPRECIO REALCONSUMIDORFRACCIONFRACCIONCONSUMIDORPRODUCTORPRODUCTOR51 31.8970 35.4239 35.1254 34.4217 49.1601 32.57561 31.89701 31.897031.897031.897010.83100.000.031.897100.000.074.7723.84849447891000.08.191000.03.93100.000.05.26100.002 31.8526 35.9970 48.0565 34.0737 44.2614 31.26322 31.85262 31.852631.852631.852610.78100.45(0.45)31.8526100.14(0.14)75.1523.937840794599.630.378.19100.01(0.01)3.9599.490.515.26100.01(0.01)Jan-053 31.2044 36.9834 46.3988 33.1435 46.0390 31.15863 31.20443 31.204431.204431.204410.76100.65(0.65)31.2044102.22(2.22)76.6023.903311957999.770.238.2099.930.073.92100.26(0.26)5.12102.72(2.72)Feb-054 30.9852 35.9836 46.6128 31.9392 46.5232 28.64644 30.98524 30.985230.985230.985210.75100.75(0.75)30.9852102.94(2.94)79.1224.516952414397.272.738.2199.830.173.88101.29(1.29)4.90107.19(7.19)Mar-055 29.9946 34.9945 40.1388 31.1906 43.5941 29.64445 29.99465 29.994629.994629.994610.75100.79(0.79)29.9946106.34(6.34)80.4624.132983782698.821.188.2399.570.433.87101.55(1.55)4.81109.28(9.28)Apr-056 31.5176 35.6338 69.3181 32.3869 44.4506 29.92846 31.51766 31.517631.517631.517610.71101.17(1.17)31.5176101.20(1.20)77.4524.41092652397.702.308.2299.640.363.88101.29(1.29)5.01104.93(4.93)May-057 30.7881 34.0683 46.9769 32.8206 42.4103 29.17317 30.78817 30.788130.788130.788110.71101.14(1.14)30.7881103.60(3.60)79.0524.338163938797.992.018.2399.540.463.89101.03(1.03)4.92106.82(6.82)Jun-058 30.7453 34.2202 42.8130 28.2750 42.9121 29.29668 30.74538 30.745330.745330.745310.68101.46(1.46)30.7453103.75(3.75)78.6624.184409546898.611.398.2299.720.283.89101.03(1.03)4.95106.29(6.29)Jul-059 31.5626 36.8049 40.8847 . 43.2042 33.23049 31.56269 31.562631.562631.562611.1097.622.3831.5626101.06(1.06)78.3024.714007675296.503.508.5895.574.434.0297.762.245.13102.38(2.38)Aug-0510 32.7115 38.0369 41.0028 32.0728 52.5526 34.257610 32.711510 32.711532.711532.711511.1996.833.1732.711597.512.4976.8325.131442791894.905.108.6894.465.544.1494.935.075.3997.542.46Sep-0511 32.6815 38.1165 40.6545 33.1320 45.0818 32.210211 32.681511 32.681532.681532.681511.1796.933.0732.681597.602.4075.5824.701048137896.553.458.6994.335.674.1095.854.155.4296.903.10Oct-0512 31.7712 35.3389 39.2799 31.7054 42.7315 31.840012 31.771212 31.771231.771231.771211.1497.252.7531.7712100.40(0.40)78.1324.823020263596.073.938.6994.285.724.1295.394.615.2799.680.32Nov-0513 29.3099 34.8361 36.2678 30.7408 41.0686 29.698313 29.309913 29.309929.309929.309911.1297.442.5629.3099108.83(8.83)80.3123.540012228101.31(1.31)8.7194.055.954.0198.002.004.99105.28(5.28)Dec-0514 29.3912 32.7988 36.6909 30.6797 41.5648 27.791114 29.391214 29.391229.391229.391211.0597.992.0129.3912108.53(8.53)79.9023.4849085528101.55(1.55)8.7094.165.844.0497.282.725.06103.96(3.96)Jan-0615 30.8752 34.3264 36.3008 31.8733 42.2837 29.328315 30.875215 30.875230.875230.875211.0498.131.8730.8752103.31(3.31)77.7323.999031544499.370.638.7194.035.974.0098.251.755.15102.14(2.14)Feb-0616 32.2657 35.8119 38.0596 33.4674 45.4988 29.738816 32.265716 32.265732.265732.265711.0298.321.6832.265798.861.1477.0424.858898409895.944.068.7194.055.953.88101.29(1.29)5.04104.37(4.37)Mar-0617 31.7534 35.3226 37.1527 33.3287 46.1561 32.850817 31.753417 31.753431.753431.753410.9798.721.2831.7534100.45(0.45)77.4924.605825703796.923.088.7094.245.763.82102.88(2.88)4.93106.63(6.63)Apr-0618 32.9331 34.8436 38.7331 35.1849 46.2865 31.988918 32.933118 32.933132.933132.933110.9698.851.1532.933196.853.1575.8724.987051067495.444.568.7194.105.903.86101.81(1.81)5.09103.32(3.32)May-0619 30.0571 34.6403 36.6753 64.3686 45.7991 28.081719 30.057119 30.057130.057130.057110.9499.020.9830.0571106.12(6.12)76.0322.851133635104.36(4.36)8.7294.015.993.83102.61(2.61)5.04104.34(4.34)Jun-0620 28.4218 30.2694 34.9643 27.6663 42.6695 25.908820 28.421820 28.421828.421828.421810.9199.300.7028.4218112.23(12.23)78.8722.4160197184106.39(6.39)8.7194.085.923.87101.55(1.55)4.91107.12(7.12)Jul-0621 26.5861 26.4328 32.8511 29.3076 40.2176 27.862921 26.586121 26.586126.586126.586110.8499.920.0826.5861119.98(19.98)84.1522.3716933916106.60(6.60)8.7293.956.054.0796.563.444.84108.68(8.68)Aug-0622 26.7806 25.3174 35.4147 29.7168 40.8061 29.754422 26.780622 26.780626.780626.780611.0797.822.1826.7806119.10(19.10)85.4122.8723821396104.27(4.27)8.9591.528.484.0996.093.914.79109.76(9.76)Sep-0623 29.6015 24.2729 37.8821 30.8858 43.1674 29.675723 29.601523 29.601529.601529.601511.2796.093.9129.6015107.75(7.75)82.6924.478842904997.422.589.1789.3210.684.1195.624.384.97105.76(5.76)Oct-0624 28.7755 25.2825 41.9364 30.4075 42.3849 29.948224 28.7755 25.24 28.775528.775528.775511.2096.693.3128.7755110.85(10.85)84.6224.348739531697.952.059.1989.1810.824.1694.475.534.92106.92(6.92)Nov-0625 30.0409 25.8562 43.1011 25.4400 42.5524 31.581725 30.040925 30.040930.040930.040911.0398.201.8030.0409106.18(6.18)84.7725.465997250693.656.359.1889.2710.734.0796.563.444.80109.48(9.48)Dec-0626 31.1550 26.4577 43.2057 32.4862 42.3547 31.536626 31.155026 31.155031.155031.155010.9998.551.4531.155102.38(2.38)84.5626.345112364990.529.489.1889.2910.714.1694.475.534.92106.85(6.85)Jan-0727 32.1910 26.6769 51.5884 32.6982 42.2279 34.843227 32.191027 32.191032.191032.191011.0098.511.4932.19199.090.9184.4727.190541967287.7112.299.2089.1210.884.2392.917.095.01104.96(4.96)Feb-0728 36.0538 29.1593 56.4297 32.6235 43.2441 37.682728 36.053828 36.053836.053836.053810.9798.721.2836.053888.4711.5384.7230.543707044578.0821.929.2089.1110.894.2293.136.874.98105.52(5.52)Mar-0729 42.9566 30.9801 69.7015 32.9561 45.5526 38.823929 42.956629 42.956642.956642.956610.9598.891.1142.956674.2525.7582.2535.333545767867.5032.509.2188.9411.064.2293.136.875.13102.45(2.45)Apr-0730 46.2586 32.0410 70.8047 50.3115 45.9784 48.552130 46.258630 46.258646.258646.258611.3395.564.4446.258668.9531.0580.9437.442612547163.6936.319.5885.5214.484.2692.257.755.2699.870.13May-0731 53.8661 35.0356 80.7694 48.9060 46.4917 46.977731 53.866131 53.866153.866153.866111.3495.554.4553.866159.2240.7882.3044.330142039353.8046.209.6484.9915.014.5586.3713.635.5395.074.93Jun-0732 56.2525 42.4452 76.7979 . 50.6286 52.306432 56.252532 56.252556.252556.252511.2696.153.8556.252556.7043.3083.7047.082391992550.6549.359.6385.0814.924.8081.8818.135.7391.668.34Jul-0733 57.6809 39.2282 70.9328 . 47.1570 47.958233 57.680933 57.680957.680957.680911.2896.053.9557.680955.3044.7087.1150.245944749547.4652.549.7184.3815.625.2175.4324.575.9887.8812.12Aug-0734 59.2508 45.6924 68.2870 47.4910 48.8022 53.500534 59.250834 59.250859.250859.250811.6293.256.7559.250853.8346.1785.8250.847710610746.9053.1010.1081.1018.905.4771.8528.156.3782.4717.53Sep-0735 58.7013 41.9687 68.6429 47.0384 50.2733 52.181635 58.701335 58.701358.701358.701311.6093.406.6058.701354.3445.6686.7150.899474732146.8553.1510.1680.6719.335.2075.5824.426.0087.6512.35Oct-0736 57.2176 45.0630 78.6545 45.9179 48.2024 50.825136 57.217636 57.217657.217657.217611.6193.296.7157.217655.7544.2587.5150.071886020547.6352.3710.2480.0319.975.0577.8222.185.7791.098.91Nov-0737 54.6456 51.6855 76.3197 84.0735 49.8188 51.563237 54.645637 54.645654.645654.645611.6093.366.6454.645658.3741.6387.6747.90630959149.7850.2210.3279.4020.604.8081.8818.135.4896.004.00Dec-0738 51.7484 38.9993 58.5628 59.2090 49.3974 52.036338 51.748438 51.748451.748451.748411.5693.746.2651.748461.6438.3686.1544.579252617153.5046.5010.3379.3320.674.9180.0419.965.7092.227.78Jan-0839 47.4674 45.2692 57.3895 59.5491 46.4193 54.013039 47.467439 47.467447.467447.467411.4894.345.6647.467467.2032.8088.1541.841315846457.0043.0010.3479.2820.724.8481.2018.805.4995.734.27Feb-0840 44.6487 53.4639 59.2335 57.3061 43.6444 50.197040 44.648740 44.648744.648744.648711.3795.274.7344.648771.4428.5689.5239.970589378259.6740.3310.3479.2420.764.8081.8818.135.3698.031.97Mar-0841 42.2430 53.9172 52.3356 58.6567 45.8147 49.507941 42.243041 42.243042.243042.243011.2896.004.0042.24375.5124.4988.3737.331535303163.8836.1210.3878.9321.074.7882.2217.785.4197.182.82Apr-0842 40.2446 54.3130 52.9804 56.0293 46.9651 48.610542 40.244642 40.244640.244640.244611.2096.713.2940.244679.2620.7488.1335.46768352567.2432.7610.3878.9721.034.8281.5418.465.4796.113.89May-0843 39.2025 54.6851 55.3117 53.1097 46.3719 48.145243 39.202543 39.202539.202539.202511.1497.242.7639.202581.3618.6489.4735.073478863168.0032.0010.3779.0320.974.8181.7018.305.3897.772.23Jun-0844 37.7071 52.7491 49.5938 51.5978 45.6489 53.562544 37.707144 37.707137.707137.707111.3495.524.4837.707184.5915.4190.1633.997977032570.1529.8510.6377.1122.894.8581.0318.975.3897.722.28Jul-0845 38.0787 55.3021 53.1040 41.7975 45.6241 55.625545 38.078745 38.078738.078738.078711.4994.245.7638.078783.7716.2391.1334.700315522768.7331.2710.8375.6824.324.9279.8820.125.4097.362.64Aug-0846 41.7992 61.1562 56.5368 46.4642 52.1865 57.703746 41.799246 41.799241.799241.799211.4494.675.3341.799276.3123.6992.1538.517015383861.9238.0810.8175.8224.185.2075.5824.425.6493.156.85Sep-0847 40.2454 62.1845 58.8285 40.7911 53.5860 49.124047 40.2454 62.47 40.245440.245440.245411.3095.874.1340.245479.2620.7495.0038.235043450762.3737.6310.7676.1723.835.2075.5824.425.4796.033.97Oct-0848 33.7971 57.8394 52.5975 48.3748 51.7048 45.704448 33.797148 33.797133.797133.797111.2596.303.7033.797194.385.6297.6933.01530684172.2327.7710.8675.4824.525.0577.8222.185.17101.68(1.68)Nov-0849 31.6668 49.9035 39.7658 26.9452 52.1081 36.461449 31.666849 31.666831.666831.666811.4894.325.6831.6668100.73(0.73)97.0230.723998560177.6222.3811.2173.1226.884.7882.2217.784.93106.69(6.69)Dec-0850 30.8723 44.3003 45.8148 34.3615 50.6941 35.161350 30.872350 30.872330.872330.872311.5194.135.8730.8723103.32(3.32)95.6929.542177781480.7319.2711.2672.7627.244.7582.7417.264.96105.89(5.89)Jan-0951 30.8220 39.5693 44.9912 28.8437 50.0453 35.718451 30.822051 30.822030.822030.822011.4594.595.4130.822103.49(3.49)97.5130.053521842379.3520.6511.2872.6527.354.7083.6216.384.82109.05(9.05)Feb-0952 27.1474 31.0479 36.3748 26.2995 42.6629 30.435552 27.147452 27.147427.147427.147411.4095.024.9827.1474117.50(17.50)100.2427.211519578687.6412.3611.3172.4627.544.6185.2514.754.60114.29(14.29)Mar-0953 27.0044 27.4267 37.7633 25.4772 44.1058 29.966453 27.004453 27.004427.004427.004411.3595.424.5827.0044118.12(18.12)100.2027.059732032888.1311.8711.3372.3627.644.5386.7513.254.52116.27(16.27)Apr-0954 26.9661 28.3079 38.9321 26.0261 44.6253 30.875654 26.966154 26.966126.966126.966111.3495.534.4726.9661118.29(18.29)100.0026.966188.4411.5611.3472.2727.734.4288.9111.094.42118.92(18.92)May-09

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&APage &PFRACCION 04021001PRECIO AL CONSUMIDORPRECIOS REALES FRACCION 04021001 VS PRECIO CONSUMIDOR

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&APage &PFRACCION 04021001PRECIO CONSUMIDORPRECIOS NOMINALES FRACCION 04021001 VS PRECIO CONSUMIDOR

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%FRACCION 04021001%PRECIO AL CONSUMIDORPORCENTAJE PRECIOS REALES FRACCION 04021001 VS PRECIO CONSUMIDOR BASDE ENERO 2005

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%FRACCION 04021001%PRECIO AL CONSUMIDORPORCENTAJE PRECIOS NOMINALES FRACCION 04021001 VS PRECIO CONSUMIDOR BASDE ENERO 2005

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% INCREMENTO FRACCIO%INCREMENTO PRECIO PRODUCTORPORCENTAJE DE INCREMENTO PRECIO NOMINALLECHE AL PRODUCTOR VS PRECIO FRACCION 04021001BASE ENERO 2005 A MAYO 2009

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% INCREMENTO FRACCIO%INCREMENTO PRECIO PRODUCTORPORCENTAJE DE INCREMENTO PRECIO REALLECHE AL PRODUCTOR VS PRECIO FRACCION 04021001 BASE ENERO 2005 A MAYO 2009

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FRACCION 04021001PRECIO AL CONSUMIDORPRECIO FRACCIONPRECIO PRODUCTORPRECIOS REALES FRACCION 04021001 VS PRECIO PRODUCTOR

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FRACCION 04021001PRECIO AL CONSUMIDORPRECIO FRACCIONPRECIO PRODUCTORPRECIOS NOMINAL FRACCION 04021001 VS PRECIO PRODUCTOR

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1.544.784.734.6011.4812.3611.834.934.884.7411.7212.014.724.877.007.142009Feb5095.6997.892.2011.2612.0911.524.754.724.6011.5112.3511.774.964.934.8111.7411.994.714.927.047.082009Mar5197.5198.511.0011.2812.1411.564.704.714.6011.4512.3311.734.824.834.7211.7811.964.684.807.107.162009Abr52100.2499.21-1.0211.3112.1411.494.614.474.4711.4012.2411.584.604.464.4611.7711.864.544.537.237.332009May53100.2099.77-0.4311.3312.1211.504.534.344.4711.3512.1511.524.524.334.4611.7711.794.474.467.307.33200954100.00100.000.0011.3412.1611.604.424.344.4711.3412.1611.604.424.344.4711.8111.814.414.417.407.4020095511.3312.1011.344.344.5520095611.3512.1211.344.374.552009574.414.552009584.474.652009594.354.652009604.574.65

&APage &P

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MARGEN NOMINAL

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MARGEN REAL

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IPPRODIPCONINDICE DE PRECIOS

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PRECIO CONSUMIDORPRECIO PRODUCTORPRECIOS NOMINALES

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PCRPPRPRECIOS REALES

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Nominal

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Real

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COEF DE DETERMINACIN R_2VALOR DE FPRECIOSVALOR NOMINALVALOR REALVALOR NOMINALVALOR REALPRODUCTOR=f(CONSUMIDOR)0.800.42207.8637.8PRODUCTOR=f(TIEMPO)0.740.11144.796.66CONSUMIDOR=f(TIEMPO)0.960.481303.3747.62MARGEN=f(TIEMPO)0.870.04338.382.27