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CPSC540
Nando de FreitasSeptember, 2011University of British Columbia
Discrete Probability and Bayesian Learning
Probability
Frequentist interpretation
Axiomatic interpretation
The axioms
Venn diagram:
OR and AND operations
Conditional probability
Conditional probability example
Marginalization
Marginalization example
Bayes rule
Learning and Bayesian inference
∑∈′
′′=
Hh
hphdp
hphdpdhp
)()|(
)()|()|(
d
h
Likelihood
Prior of “sheep” class
Posterior
“sheep”
Speech recognition P(words | sound) P(sound | words) P(words)
Final beliefs Likelihood of data Language modeleg mixture of Gaussians eg Markov model
Hidden Markov Model (HMM)
α
“Recognize speech” “Wreck a nice beach”
Definition of discrete r.v.s
Probability distributions
The CDF
Expectation
Bernoulli r.v.s and the indicator function
Maximum likelihood example
Maximum likelihood example
Bayesian learning
Beta prior
Example