Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
I CONTROL NUMBER 12 SUBJECT CLASSIFICATION (695)
BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATA SHEET A ltW ( i 7 t(gt ( ___
3 TITLE AND SUBTITLE (240) i f
I L r c
4 PERSON ALrHORS (100)
5 CORPORATE AUTHORS (101) L (t ~T~
6 DOCUMENT DATE (110)
9 REFERENCE ORGANIZATION (130)
10 SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES (500)
7NUMBER OF PAGES (120) 8 ARC NUMBER 170)
11 ABSTRACT (950)
12 DESCRIPTORS (920)
I
i_( -AL
i
1l
-
I 1
t ( (
(14
i
13 PROJ ECT NUMBER (150)
( CONTRACT NO(140)
II(2
15 CONTRACT
[ TYPE (140)
f 16 TYPE OF [)OCUMENT (160)
AID 590-7 (10-79) Nt
c INIAI_4-- EMPRESA NACIONAL DE LUZ Y FUERZA MANAGUA NICARAGUA
NATIONAL POWER STUDY
1978 - 988 PR EFESIBILIT-Y N vJ S-IIGAT ION
PHASE I
VOL U M E I INTRO DUCT ION
CHAPTER I ENERGY AN ECONOMIC LOAD FORFCAST
GROWTH
FOR INTEPCONNECTED SYSTEM
CHAPTER E EXISTING FCILITKS AND SHORT- TERM DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTE-CONNECTED SYSTEM
INTERNATIONA L EN G IN EE RING COM PANY INC
C 0 N S U L T I N G E N G I N E E R S
SAl FRANCISCO CALIFORNIA USA MANAGUA DN NICARAGUA
OSORIO AND TERANARCHITECTS AND ENGINEERS SA MINAGUA DN NICARAGUA
MARCH I 975
_j
20
Z
Z)0 1r
I--V)
-
0
w
-~
1 -
gt c
2 J V)
3 0
OO
Z 0- lt z m
C um)~ W- shy
w
0dL
o9
I 03J
CO
J _
OJIJNy7JV 0N VV 0 0shy
4
3-
pr
e)
~~
4 44
N f
~ -N NI
Y4
1I
L
4kv
N
01
z~ -0
P R 0 L 0 G 0
Este informe ha sido preparado en ambos idiomas Espanol e inglfs Originalmente fu6 escrito en Ingl6s y luego traducido al Espanol la cual se considera la versi6n oficial del informe Se hicieron todos los esfuerzos posibles con el objeto de que ambos textos fueran id~nticos sin embargo durante la traducci6n se encontr6 que era conveniente y necesario efectuar cambios menores en el formato drreglo y terminologia en parte del texto Se puso especial 6nfasis en traducir los t~rminos tfcnicos a sus equivashylentes en Espanol que fueran los mas aceptables y frecuentemente usados en Nicaragua posiblemente 6sto no se haya conseguido comshypletamente debido a las varias traducciones que esencialmente tienen el mismo significado pero que varlan un poco en su uso actual Se espera sin embargo que ninguno de los cambios hechos o expresiones t6cnicas usadas alteren en ninguna forma el signifishycado e intenci6n del texto en Espanol
F 0 R E W 0 R D
This report has been prepared in both the Spanish and English lanshyguages It was originally written in English and translated into Spanish which is considered to be official version of this report Every possible effort has been exerted to make both texts identical however it was found expedient and necessary to make minor changes to the format arrangement and terminology of some of the text material during the translation Special emphasis was placed on translating technical terms into the Spanish equivalents which are most acceptable to and frequently used in Nicaragua This may not have been accomshyplished in all cases because of several translations that have essenshytially the same meaning but vary slightly in actual usage Nevertheshyless it is intended that none of the changes made or technical exshypressions used alter the meaning and intent of the Spanish text in any regards
PLAN GENERAL DE DESARROLLO DE ENERGIA ELECTRICA 1978-1988
VOLUMEN I
INTRODUCCION CAPITULO I CAPITULO II
VOLUMEN II-
CAPITULO III CAPITULO IV
VOLUMEN III
CAPITULO V
CAPITULO VI
DIRECTORIO DE VOLUMENES
ENERGIA Y CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO FACILIDADES EXISTENTES Y EL DESARROLLO A CORTO PLAZO DEL SISTEMA INTERCONECTADO
HIDROLOGIA Y METEOROLOGIA GEOLOGIA
INVESTIGACION PRELIMINAR DE LOS PROYECTOS HIDROELECTRICOS
ESTIMACION PRELIMINAR DE COSTOS
NATIONAL POWER STUDY 1978-1988
VOLUME I
INTRODUCTION CHAPTER I CHAPTER II
VOLUME II
CHAPTER III CHAPTER IV
VOLUME III
CHAPTER V CHAPTER VI
DIRECTORY OF VOLUMES
ENERGY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH EXISTING FACILITIES AND SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
HYDROLOGY AND METEOROLOGY GEOLOGY
PRELIMINARY INVESTIGATION OF HYDROELECTRIC PROJECTS PRELIMINARY COST ESTIMATES
INTRODUCCION
INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
AUTHORITY
EMPRESA NACIONAL DE LUZ Y FUERZA (ENALUF) created under the laws of Nicaragua on October 14 1954 as an autonomous agency of the Republic entered into a Contract dated February 13 1974 with INTERNATIONAL ENGINEERING COMPANY INC (IECO) of San Francisco California US A for the performance of Engineering Services related to the General Plan for the Development of Electrical Energy for the Decade of 1978-1988 The Letter of Credit under which the work was to be pershyformed was issued on June 14 1974 and the actual work began on June 24 1974 after receipt of the official Notice to Proceed
Financing for this study has been provided by the United States of America Agency for International Development (US AID) from a Loan Program AID No 524-L-024 between the Government of Nicaragua and US AID
GEOGRAPHY AND CLIMATE
Nicaragua is one of the five Central American nations and is located between Honduras on the north and Costa Rica on the south It is the largest of the Central American countries and has an area of approxishymately 130000 square kilcnneters and a population in excess of 2100000 people The country is bounded by the Pacific Ocean on the west and the Caribbean Sea on the east
4There s a coastal plain on the Pacific side that is only slightly above sea level It gradually rises toward the east into rugged mountains near the north central portion of the country The hydroelectric projects studied during this investigation are located in this general vicinity Beyond this mountain range lies the interior a sparsely inhabited wildershyness of timbered plains and rolling hills cut by rivers Active and inshyactive volcanic peaks rising 900 to 1500 meters above sea level and lesser mountain chains parallel the Pacific Ocean The two largest lakes in Central America Lago de Managua and Lago de Nicaragua are located on the Pacific side of the country The first is about 64 kilometers long by 23 kilometers wide and the second is about 160 kilometers long by 64 kilometers Nide The eastern coastal plains are low and swampy and extend 60 to 80 kilometers inland
Nicaragua lies within the tropics between approximately 110 00 and 15 00 north latitude and 830 30 and 870 30 west longitude The mean annual temperature in the Pacific coastal area is about 270 C The clishymate is typical rain forest type in the eastern and typical savannah in the western part of the country Average annual rainfall is about 3800 millimeters on the Caribbean coast and reaches as much as 7600 millishymeters in some sections Rainfall decreases towards the Pacific coast
and ranges from 1500 to 1650 millimeters annually all of which occurs from May to November A dry season extending from November through April is typical of the western section of the nation Average annual rainfall in the interior is about 3000 millimeters
PURPOSE
The purpose of the investigation covered by the Contract is to determine the electrical power and energy requirements of Nicaragua for the decade from 1978 to 1988 and the most economical means of satisfying them This purpose is to be achieved by performing a Prefeasibility Investigashytion which is to be subdivided into two separate but interrelated phases This report contains the results of the Phase I investigation and includes the determination of the definitive power demand and energy forecast for the study decade and the most economical hydroelectric projects which can be used in meeting the requirements
SCOPE
The scope of this investigation includes an analysis of future electrical demands and emphasizes the importance of utilizing hydroelectric projects to satisfy them The ultimate objective is to establish the most economishycal electrical system that can satisfy future demands The work thereshyfore is to be performed in two phases In the first phase future deshymands have been estimated and hydroelectric projects which can be used have been investigated In the second phase the electrical system that can satisfy electrical demands for the study decade will be established
In order to achieve the foregoing objectives it was necessary to invesshytigate the hydroelectric potential of Rio Grande de Matagalpa Rio Coco and Rio Viejo and a pump-storage project at Laguna de Apoyo This has been accomplished by a review and evaluation of all available date of the natural resources to be developed a theoretical analysis of the potential of these resources and formulation of a general plan of development for the period from 1978 to 1988
Investigation of the hydroelectric potential has been made by analyzing all possible projects on the three rivers previously mentioned The proshyjects investigated have been selecced on the basis of a review and evaluashytion of previous studies and reports and additional investigation of other projects Alternative studies of each river basin have been made to estabshylish a preliminary evaluation of the technical and economic feasibility of the combined development The hydroelectric developments will be combined in the second phase with thermal plants to formulate the general developshyment plan for the study decade
The scope of the Phase I investigation specifically included the following work
ii
I Selective analysis of all possible hydroelectric projects on the Rio Coco and Rio Grande de Matagalpa
2 Review of existing studies of the Nicaragua Project and Rafael Mora sites on the Rio Viejo
3 Study of a pump-storage project at Laguna de Apoyo 4 Alternate studies to determine an integrated development plan
of 62 kilometers of Rio Coco between Cafto Namasli and Quebrada El Corozal and 220 kilometers of Rio Grande de Matagalpa betshyween the confluience with Quebrada El Jicaro and the Rio Okawas
5 Study national economic trends together with load statistics pertaining to the ENALUF service area of the Sistema Intershyconectado Nacional (SIN) and prepare a range of high average and low energy consumption projections which can be related to a definitive load forecast for the 1978-1988 development period
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
International Engineering Company wishes to express sincere appreciation for the valuable assistance given them during the performance of this investigation Without such help particularly that received from nushymerous Nicaraguan organizations it would have been virtually impossible to complete this study in its present form within the available time The assistance of the officers engineers and other staff members of ENALUF was especially valuable
This paragraph serves as formal acknowledgement to the many organizations and individuals who rendered collaboration It is the intention of the IECO representatives to personally thank those organizations and persons who in any way helped in the performance of the work for this study
CONCLUSIONS
1 A total of 13 potential primary sites 7 on Rio Grande de Matagalpa 3 on Rio Coco and 3 on Rio Viejo were studied during this phase of inshyvestigation of hydroelectric developments Four additional secondary sites on the rivers or tributaries were also studied but in lesser detail than the primary sites
2 Most of the-hydroelectric potential of the Rio Grande de Matagalpa can be economically developed by constructing a series of dams
3 Two schemes were considered for the aguna de Apoyo pump-storage proshyject One had a surface powerhouse and the other had an underground powerhouse The surface powerhouse is currently estimated to be cheaper than the underground installation The project is located in a volcanic area and fuirther study of the geology is required during the following phase of investigation That investigation could result in the inderground solution becoming more economical
4 Geologic reconnaissance made for 13 potential hydroelectric sites on the three river basins and the Lagona de Apoyo pump-storage project did not reveal any geologic conditions that would preclude the consshytruction of hydroelectric facility at any of them
5 Streamflow data obtained by ENALUF in the project areas of the Rio Grande de Matagalpa Rio Coco and Rio Viejo basins were found to be sufficiently consistent for use in project studies
iii
6 Results of sediment transport studies show that reservoir sedimentashytion is relatively Light in comparison to their capacity
7 The definitive forecast of load growth within the service area of the interconnected system is directly related to short-range projections of the national economy in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita This has been achieved by the correlation of socio-economic parameters with sectoral and total energy consumption growth trends
A comparison of levels of energy consumption and growth rates obtained from the summation of detailed energy forecasts for individual load zones forming the service area of the interconnected system with the range of total energy consumption obtained from estimating equations deshyrived from correlation analysis indicates that the definitive forecast is very close to the average projection As this projection corresponds to the most probable rise of GDP the definitive forecast provides a bashysis for power system planning in Phase II The overall rate of growth of both energy and demand over the period 1974-1988 is approximately 11 percent resulting in a level of peak load demand of five times that of 1974 at the end of year 1990
RECOMMENDATIONS
From Phase I investigations it is recommended that Phase II studies be performed on the hydroelectric potential of Rio Grande de Matagalpa basin and a pump-storage project at Laguna de Apoyo Studies of the Rio Grande de Matagalpa should be concentrated on damsites at Paso Real El Carmen and Copalar In order to produce the maximum power and energy from this river basin the following work is recommended for Phase II study
I Update streawflow records revise Phase I construction and operating flood estimates and estimate the spillway design flood
2 Perform reservoir operation studies for individual projects and inteshygrated operation of the projects on the Rio Grande de Matagalpa
3 Prepare surface geologic maps of three sites on the Rio Grande de Matagalpa and pump-storage project at Laguna de Apoyo
4 Prepare revised layout plans for the selected sites The selected sites should be surveyed and new topographic maps prepared as soon as possible in order to permit the preparation of more accurate project layouts and cost estimates
5 Locate construction materials for the selected projects 6 Revise quantities unit costs and total cost estimates 7 Review the heights of dams and sizes of the reservoir and re-evaluate
the power and energy potential of the Rio Grande de Matagalpa system 8 Investigate sources of energy for the pumping required at Laguna de
Apoyo pump-storage project 9 Prepare a construction schedule for staged construction of the projects 10Generation and transmission system planning should be based on the
definitive load forecast for the interconnected system
iv
11 The recommended hydroelectric developments should be inclu ded as prime sources of peak and upper range capacity in a general plan for power development for the period from 1978 to 1988
12 Recommend hydroelectric project for feasibility investigation 13 Prepare schedule for additional geological surface mapping subshy
surface investigations and geophysical explorations for the project selected for feasibility investigation
14 Review the two dam alternative using Paso Real and a high dam at Copalar
v
CAPITULO I
ENERGIA Y CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO
PROYECCION DE CARGA
PARA
EL SISTEMA INTERCONECTADO
CHAPTER I
ENERGY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
LOAD FORECAST FOR INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
CHAPTER I
ENERGY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
LOAD FORECAST FOR INIERCONNECTED SYSTEM
CONTENTS
PAGE
10 INTRODUCTION I-I 11 GROWTH OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY I-i 111 POPULATION GROWTH 1-2 112 ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION 1-7 113 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 1-8 114 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA 1-19 115 PROJECTIONS OF TOTAL GDP - 1975-1988 1-20 116 PROaECTED SECTORAL CONTRIBUTION TO GDP 1-21
12 LOAD GROWTH WITHIN TH1E INTERCONNECTCD SYSTEM SERVICE AREA 1-31 121 DEMARCATION AND COMPOSITION OF LOAD ZONES 1-31 122 SHORT-RANGE PROJECTIONS FOR EXISTING LOAD CENTERS 1-32 123 LONG-RANGE FORECASTS FOR SERVICE AREA LOA) ZONES 1-34 124 LOAD FORECAST FOR INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM SERVICE AREA 1-35
13 CORRELATION OF ECONOMIC TRENDS WITH ENERGY USAGE 1-40 131 CORRELATION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION WITH SELECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMI C PARAME TERS 1-40 132 COMPARISON OF SELECTED TOTAL AND SECTORAL ENERGY
PROJECTIONS 1-42 133 COMPARISON OF ENERGY PROJECTIONS WITH GROWTH OF
CONSUMPTION IN OTHER COUNTRIES 1-46 134 COMPARISON OF PROJECTIONS WITH FORECAST LOAD GROWTH 1-50
14 SIUMARY AND CONCLUSIONS T-52
CHAPTER I
ENERGY AND ECONOMIC GROW 1
LOAD FORECASr FOR INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
LIST OF TABLES PAGE
TABLE 11 POPULATION OF NICARAGUA BY DEPARDIENT - AS OF JUNE 30TH 1-4
TABLE 12 TOTAL POPULATION AS OF JUNE 30TH BY REIGIONS AND DE PARIENTS 1-5
TABLE 13 TOTAL URBAN AND RURALJ POPULATION 1-6
TABLE 14 ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION BY TYPE OF ACTIVITY 1965-1973 1-9
TA3LE 15 ECONOM [CALLY ACTIVE POPULATION BY TYPE OF ACTIVITY BY REGION AND DEPARThFNTS 1973 I-LD
TABLE 16 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - 1960-1974 I-ti
TABLE 17 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - 1960-1974 PERCENT BASED ON 1958 CORDOBAS 1-12
TABLE 18 TOTAL AND PER CAPITA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT -ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS 1978-1988 1-22
TABLE 19 AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF INCREASE OF TOTAL GD 1960-1974 AND PROJECTED 1975-1938 IN PERCENT BASEO ON 1953 CORI)OBAS 1-23
TABLE 110 AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF INCREASE GDP PER CAPITA 1960-1974 AND PROJECTED 1975-1938 IN PERCENT BASED ON 1958 CORDOBAS 1-23
TABLE 111 SECTORAll CONTRIBUTION TO GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ASSUMING LOW AVERAGE HIGH AN]) MOST PROBABLE GROWII RATES FOR TIE 1978-1988 PERIOD lN PERCENT OF GDP 1-25
TABLE 1i2 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR AND TOTAL GROSS DOiESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA 1960-1974 AND PROJECTED 1975-1988 ASSUMING THE MOST PROBABLE GROWTH RATE 1-27
TABLE 113 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBTION OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR 1960-74 -AND PROJECTED 1975-1988 ASSUMING THE MOST PROBABLE GROWIH RATE 1-23
PAGE
TABLE 114 AVERAGE ANNUAL RATES OF INCREASE IN THE PRIMARY SECONDARY UTILITY AND SERVICE SECTORS 1960-1974 AND PROJECTED UNDER ALTERNATIVE GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS 1975-1988 IN PERCENT BASED ON 1958 CORDOBAS 1-29
TABLE 115 MINING AS PERCENT OF TOTAL PRIMARY CCNSTRUCTION AS PER-CENT OF TOTAL SECONDARY AND COMMERCE AS PERCENT OF OTHER SERVICE VALUE ADDED 1960-1974 AND PROJECTED TO 1988 BASED ON MOST PROBABLE GDP ESTIMATE VALUE ADDED IN MILLIONS OF 1958 CORDOBAS 1-30
TABLE 116 SUMM1ARY OF HISTORICAL RECORD AND LOAD FORE-CAST FOR INTER-CONNECTED SYSTEM 1-38
TABLE 117 PERChNTAGE COMPOSITION AND GROWIll RATES -FOR ENERGY WITHIN INTERCONNECTEI) SYSTEM SERVICE AREA
SALES 1-39
TABLE 1 18 PROJECTED TOTAL ELECTRICAL ENERY SOLD PER CAPITA ASSUMING HIGH AVERAGE AND LOW ENERGY USAGE LEVELS 1-43
TABLE 1 19 ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS SECTOR IN 1988
6F ELECTRICAL ENERGY SALES BY L-45
TABLE 120 WORLD ENERGY DATA (1968) 1-47
TABLE 121 TOTAL ENERGY GENERATED PER DOLLAR OF GDP 1-49
CHAPTER I
ENERGY AND ECONOM IC GROWTH
LOA) FORECAST FOR INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
LIST OF FIGUIURES
FIGURE 1 1 ALTERNArIVE PROJECTIONS OF TOTAL AND PER CAPITA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
FI UR 12 SISTEMA lNTERCONECTADO NAC[ONAL SERVICE AREA
FIGURE 13 TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY FORECAST FOR SISTEMA INTER-CONECTADO NACIONAL (SIN)
FIURE 14 REIfAIL SECTORAL ENERGY gALES FOA SERVIOE AREA OF SISTEMA INTERCONECTADO NACIONAL (SIN)
FIGUaE 15 RETAIL SECTORAI ENERGY SALES FOR SERVICE AREA OF SISIEMA I NTERCONECTADO NACIONAL
FIGURE l6 TOTAL ELECTRICAL ENERCY SOLD PER CA ITA
FIUUJ [7 TOTAL ELECTRICAL ENERGY SALES
FISURE 18 TOTAL ENERGY SALES FOR RESIDENTIAL COEERCAL AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS
FIGURE 19 TOTAL ENERGY SALES FOR GOVERplusmnNMENT PUBLIC LIGHTING AND PUMPING SECTORS
FIGURE [10 TOTAL ENERGY SALES FOR IRRIGATION SECTOR AND WHOLESALE
FIGURE 111 ELECTRICAL ENERGY (EE) PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION VS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT PER CAPITA 1968
FIGURE [12 ELECTRICAL ENERGY PER CAPITA IS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (GNP) PER CAPITA
FIGURE 113 LATIN AMERICA CORRELATION BETWEEN NET PER CAPITA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND PER CAPITA GROSS PRODUCT
CHAPTER I
ENERGY AND ECONOMIC GROW1ih
LOAD FORECAST FOR INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
10 INTRODUCTION
The future growth of the national economy of Nicaragua requiresthat a reliable supply of electrical energy be provided to sustain continuouslyrising demand in the more developed areas of the countryand extend the benefits of electrification to rural communities preshyseatly without power
The development of the natural resources of Nicaragua will provide an indigenous source of energy however the parallel developments in the adjoining countries of Honduras aid Costa Rica suggests that the interchange of energy that is surplus to the national requireshyments is in the economic interest of all three Republics In order to determine the extent to which interconnections between national systems may be used to improve the economics of operation of the individual systems ic is necessary that a close definition be made of Lhe loaJ growth for each component system
This chapter contains the forecasts of the load growth for the ENALUF system in accurdance with the planned and anticipated growth of the national economy
11 GROWII OF ILE NATIONAL ECONOMY
The growth patterns and structural characteristics of the major sectors of the Nicaraguan economy population and labor force are analyzed and presented in the following sections
The historical period 1960-74 provides base period socio-economic data for projecting population alternative growth rates for Gross Domestic Product (CDP) and alternative sectoral contributions to GDP during the 1973-88 development period The historical periodis 15 years and the total energy forecast period 1975-1989 is also 15 years Alternative projections of the major economic parashymeters are made to provide a range of values for use in power system planning
The projection of alternative growth raLes for total areGDP based primarily on lifferential growth rates experienced during the historical pcziod which are considered representative of the rangeof growth raues mo3t likely to be experienced in the future The historical periods and the annual growth rates are identified at the top of the following page
1960-74 66 = Average growth rate
1960-67 87 = High growth rate
1967-74 44 = Low growth rate
The projected sectoral composition of GDP is guided by (1) trends established in the historical period and (2) a comparisor of the expected sectoral composition of GDP for a group of selected countries having total population per capita income and total inshyvestment - domestic savings ratios considered likely to prevail in Nicaragua in the future I An estimate of the most probable growth rate of GDI and sectoral contributicn to GDP is based on ai analysis of the historical data consideration of the Government of Nicaraguas 1975-1979 development plan aad the short term estimates o futt-re growth possibilities prepared by INCA22 NASEC 3 AIDs ROCAP 4 and IMF 5
111 POPULATION GROWi
The population of Nicaragua is growing at a rapid rate In the 1960-74 period the average annual rate of increase was 28 pershycent The urban population in communities of 1000 or more inshycreased at a 45 percent rate during the same period A summary of the historical period average annual rates for the total urbai and rural population is given at the top of the following page
1 The future expected sectoral composition of GDP is taken frorm Handbook of Expected Values of Structural Characteristics IBkD Working Paper Number 154 June 1973 The handbook prepared by N G Carter of the Comparative Analysis and Projections Division of the IBRD presents the expected values of macroshyeconomic variables arid other structural characteristics derived from 20 years of data (1950-1970) on some 101 countries with more thai one million in population The figures presented are exshypected values They do not imply any normative judgement but represent the most probable values obtained from regression analysis
2 Instituto Centroamericano de Administracibn de Empresas
3 Comit6 Nacional Agropecuario
4 Agency for International DcvIcpment-Regional Office for Central America and Panama
5 International MoneLary Fund
1-2
PERIOD degPOPULATION GROWTH
Total Urban Rural
1960-74 28 45 16
1960-67 28 46 14
1967-74 30 43 18
The cou-crys population is concentrated in the Pacific region primarily in the departments of Managua Leon Chinpndega and Masaya The Pacific region has approximately 58 percent of the total population the Central and North regions 33 percent and the Atlantic 9 percent These percentages have remained fairly constant during the 1965-73 period The Pacific region populationis predominately urban and was 63 percent in 1974 Both the Central and North and the Atlantic regions have approximately 27 percent of their total populations in the urban category
Table 11 shows the 1965-73 population by region and department Table 12 shows the total population of the country projected by the Office of Surveys and Census for the 1974-1980 period
Table I shows total urban and rural population projected to 1988 The projection oE total population made by IECO for this study is based on average annual increase of 35 percent for the period from 1975 to 1980 and 325 percent for the period from 1980 to 1990
Appendix Tables IAI and IA2 show the urban and rural population by region and department projected to 1980 by the Executive Office of Surveys and Census Urban population is projected to increase from 484 percent in 1974 to slightly over 50 percent of the total in 1978 54 percent in 1983 and 57 percent in 1988 The historical and projected populations are also shown n Appendix Figure IA1
The main objectives of the countrys rural development plan for the 1975-79 period is to increase income and employment opportushynities for the rural population increase the agriculture and liveshystock contribution to the countrys foreign exchange earnings and secure provision of an adequate supply of food for the population and raw materials for the agricultural processing industries
In the 1975-79 period priority projects will be labor intensive emphasizing establishment of small industries increasing agriculshycure shy livestock product-oii and expansion of agricultural-industrial complexes in different tzgcns of tl-e country The increase in the area under cultivation up o 1979 for primary agricultural products is shown on Figure IA9 of ijpendix IA Data pertaining to agriculshytural production is given in tableIA22 of the same appendix
1-3
TABLA 11 - TABLE T-I
REPUBLICA DE NICARAGUA OFICINA EJECUTIVA DE ENCUESTAS Y CENSOS
POBLACION DE NICARAGUA POR DEPARTANENTO - DESDE EL 30 DE JUNIO Executive Office of Surveys anJ Census
Population of Nicaragua By Department - As Of June 30th 1965 - 1973
ZONAS Y DEPARTAENTOS 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Zones amp Departments
LA REPUBLICA 1618966 1659602 1701258 1743960 1787733 1832605 1888532 1954207 2014658
ZONA DEL PACIFICO 927291 956282 98-501 l18010 1050870 1085149 1123122 1165111 1178321 Pacific Region Chinandega 135170 138346 141597 144925 148331 151817 156597 162956 180783 Leon 154568 156608 158675 160770 162892 165042 168000 174552 202564 Managua 356272 375546 395863 417279 439854 463650 488800 505441 394414 Masaya 79874 81879 83934 86201 88201 90415 91947 95971 114451 Granada 67170 67842 68520 69205 69897 70596 71470 73988 105268 Carazo 67353 68000 68653 69312 69977 70649 71685 74514 93852 Rivas 66884 68061 59259 70478 71718 72980 74623 77689 85979
ZONA CENTRAL Y NORTE 569628 573586 577721 582037 586541 59124C 598625 618028 656505 Central amp North Region Chontales 74006 73140 72284 71438 70602 69776 69323 72030 76363 Boaco 71098 70792 70488 70185 6)883 69583 69476 71094 75319 Matagalpa 170894 170467 10041 169616 169192 168769 168862 173647 186462 Jinotega 80361 82008 83689 85405 87156 88943 91356 94734 99066 Esteli 71743 72941 74159 75397 76656 77936 79584 81947 88446 Madriz 51133 51527 51924 52324 52727 53133 53743 55595 58255 Nueva Segovia 50393 52711 55136 57672 60325 63100 66281 68981 72591
ZONA DEL ATLANTICO 122047 129734 137036 143913 150322 156216 166845 171068 179832 Atlantic Region Rio San Juan 16877 17486 18117 18771 19449 20151 20958 21602 22343 Zeiaya 105170 112248 118919 125142 130873 136065 145887 149466 157489
Base Interpolaci6n de 1963 - Censos de 1971 Interpolated from 1963 - 1971 Census 1971 y 1973 Aumentos y cambios naturales que ocurrieron debido al desplazamiento de la poblaci6n de Managua
despues del terremoto del 23 de Diciembre de 1972 1971 amp 1973 Natural increases and changes that occurred due to the displacement of the population of Managua
after the earthquake of Dec 23 1972
TABLA 12 - TABLE T9
RPUBLICA DE NICARAGUA OFICINA EJECUTTI DE ENCESTAS Y CENSOS Executive Office of Surveys and Censtis
POBLACION TOTAL POR ZONAS Y DEPARTAMNTOS DESDE EL 30 DE JUNIO PERIODO 1974-1980 Total Population as of June 30th by Regins anC epartments Period 1974-1980
ZONA Y DEPARTAMNTO Region And Department 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
LA REPUBLICA - TOTAL 2083663 2155383 2232546 2312471 2395257 2481246 2570610
ZONA DEL PACIFICO 1245438 12812057 1334167 1381932 1431405 1482794 1536198 Pacific Region Chinandega 177114 183208 189766 196560 203597 210907 218502Letn 191742 198295 205394 212747 220363 228275 236496Managua 510714 528284 547197 566787 587078 608153 630058Masaya 108376 112080 116092 120248 124553 129025 133672Granada 87141 90095 93320 9t661 100122 103716 107451Carazo 85726 88586 91757 95043 98445 101979 105652Rivas 84625 87509 90641 93886 97247 100739 104367
ZONA CENTRAL Y NORTE 654975 677437 71692 726810 752830 779854 807941 Central amp North RegionChontales 77546 80180 83054 86024 89104 92302 95626Boaco 73929 76516 79255 82093 85032 88084 91257Matagalpa 182934 189243 196018 203035 210304 217853 225700Jinotega 100354 103889 107608 111461 115451 119596 123903Esteli 87613 90526 93767 97124 100601 104212 107965Madriz 58356 60351 62511 64749 67067 69475 71977Nueva Segovia 74243 76732 79479 82324 85271 88332 91513
ZONA DEL ATLANTICO 183250 189889 196687 203729 211022 218598 226471 Atlantic RegionRio San Juan 22810 23709 24558 25437 26348 27294 28227Zelaya 160440 166180 172129 178292 184674 191304 198194
1980
TABLA I 3 Table 13
POBLACION URBAA Y RURAL TOTAL Total
V O I0A f Yca (100(0 )
1960 14H1 961 L453
L962 1496 1963 1541 1964 1579 [95 1(L9 190( 1o661) 1917 1701 L968 [744 1919 1788 L9) 1213 197 I 9 [L- i254
L-197-4 2084 1975 2155 L976 2233 (977 2312
-9722393 1(79 2481 1980 0
5 1982 2740 1983 2630
9 3321
Urban And Rural Population
IIISO [co 1960-74
Ilistorical 1960-74 Y
And
PROYECTADA 1975-88 Projcctcd [975-88
UI AN RURAL (10Ou) (1000)
547 864 5L 882 59) 901 629 912 6S2 927 685 934 717 943 750 951 788 956 824 964 865 968 907 982 96 1008 971 1044
1009 1075 105M 1101 1103 1130 [154 1158 1212 1183 1267 1214 1344 1226
12511104 1466 1274 [528 1302
1890 [431
PERCENT URBAN RURAL
388 612 393 607 398 602 408 592 413 587 423 577 432 568 441 559 452 548 461 539 472 528 480 520 484 516 482 518 484 516 489 511 494 506 499 501 506 494 512 488 523 477 529 471 535 465 540 460
569 431
iRllOIV DI CECfI i AUAT PROYECTADO
ProjucLed Average Annal Growth Rates
1975-1980 = 350 PORCIENTO 1980-1990 = 325 Percent
luenw Ilistorico Rjectiva
Sqourcc Hiistorical Office of
y Proyecciones 1lasta 1980 Oficina de l[nciiesta y Censo and Projections to 1980 Executive
Surveys and Census
The migration of the rural population to the larger urban centers of the country will be reduced as these development programs are implemented however the trend towards urban development is exshypected to continue throughout the forecast period
112 ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION
The Nicaraguan labor force has averaged 30 percent of the total population during the 1965-1973 period Table 14 shows the economically active population by major activity for the 1965-73 period
A percentage distribution of the labor force by the major economic sectors for 1965 1972 and 1973 is summarized below
1965 1972 1973
SECTOR
PRIMARY 588 516 510
Agriculture 580 510 540
Mining 08 06 06
SECONDARY 150 150 138
Manufacturing 116 116 98
Construction 34 34 40
SERVICE 262 334 352
Utilities 30 37 38
Other Service 232 297 314
Commerce 74 85 87
A comparison between 1965 and 1972 shows that the principal change occurred between the primary and the service sectors The decline in the primary sector is offset by the increase in the service sector labor force where the finance connerce community and social services and miscellaneous subsectors registered increases Between 1972 and 1973 manufacturing employment decreased reflectshying the effect of the December 1972 earthquake in the Managua area
Table 15 shows the geographical distribution of the labor force by type of activity in 1973 and is summarized at the top of the following page
1-7
REGiON PRIMARY SECONDARY SERVICE TOTAL
Paci[ic 32 18 50 100
Central and North 75 9 16 100
Atlantic 80 6 14 100
In the Pacific region the influence of commercial government and service activities in the Managua area is important with the service sector employing 50 percent of the labor force compared to
16 percent in the Central and North region and 14 percent in the Atlantic region The importance of the primary sector in the
economies of che Central and North and Atlaitic regions is also clearly indicated with 75 to 80 percent of the labor force engaged in this sector versus 32 percent in the Pacific region
The Governments 1975-79 development plan places emphasis on imshy
proving and expanding income and employmenL opportunities in agriculture and related activities Programs to increase agriculshy
tural production improve community facilities assist tenant farmers to acquire land ownership expand and strengthen the
electric cooperative movement and provide in certain areas reshysettlement opportunities are geared to increasing the productivity
of the labor force in the primary sector These programs are inshytended to have a major impact in the Central and North and Atlantic regions where primary sector activities will continue to provide employment for most of the labor force
The development programs will also improve the unemployment and under-employment picture in both the agriculture and other
economic sectors The 1973 data given in Table IA3 of Appendix IA shows an average unemployment rate of 91 percent with individual sub-sector rates varying from 156 in construction to 11 percent in community and social services Agriculture with 112 percent unemployment has substantial underemployment also in the rural areas especially in the interior areas
113 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
During the 1960-74 period the real average annual rate of growth
of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 66 percent The total and sectoral composition of GDP in 1958 prices is shown in Table 16 The percentage distributions are shown in Table 17
1-8
TABLA 14 - TABLE 14
REPUBLICA DE NICARAGUA OFICINA EJECUTIVA DE ENCUESTAS Y CENSOS Executive Office of Surveys amp Census
TIPO DE ACTIVIDAD POR LA POBLACION ECONOMICAMENTE ACTIVA 1965-1973 Economically Active Population by Type of Activity 1965-1973
TIPO DE ACTIVIDAD Type of Activity 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973
POBLACION TOTAL ECONONMICA NNTE ACTIVA Total Economically Active Population
491056 500335 510556 521860 534402 548388 564312 585241 598477
AGRICULTURA CACERIA Y PESCA Agriculture Hunting and Fishing
284752 3868
285911 3809
287311 3755
288966 3710
290889 3673
293098 3644
295643 3632
298471 3623
301641 3626
INDUSTRIA - Industry 57041 57811 58627 59490 60404 61370 62496 67717 58726
ELECTRICIDAD COMBUSTIBLE Y AGUA Electricity Gas and Water
1556 1731 1929 2152 2403 2690 3018 3390 3813
CONSTRUCCION - Construction 16664 17130 17638 18197 18813 19490 20254 20085 24026
COMERCIO RESTAURANTES Y HOTELES
Commerce Restaurants and Hotels
36378 37988 39680 41458 43330 45298 47376 49556 51864
TRANSPORTACION BODEGAS Y
COMIUNICACIONES Transportation Warehouse and Communications
13118 13719 14356 15034 15755 16520 17322 18182 19098
FINANCE - Finanzas 1727 2110 2577 3154 3861 4728 5890 7230 8880
COMIJNIDAD Y SERVICIOS SOCIALES
Community and Social Services
OTROS No iDENTIFICADOS Others Not Elsewhere Identified
74351
1601
78050
2076
81962
2721
86102
3597
90481
4793
95118
6432
99907
8774
105098
11889
110594
16209
ESTIMACIOITS REVISADAS EN EL CENSO DE 1971 Estimates based on the 1971 census revised
TABLA 15 - TABLE 15
REPUBLICA DE NICARAGUA OFICINA EJECUrIVA DE ENCUESTAS Y CENSOS Executive Office of Surveys and Census
POBLACION ECONOMICA1ENTE ACTIVA POR TIPO DE ACTIVIDAD POR ZONA Y DEPARTAMENTOS 1973Economically Active Population by Type of Activity By Region and Departments 1973
DEPARTMETTIOS Departments
TOTAL EAP
AGRIC CACERIA-Hunting PESCA-Fishing
MINAS-Mines CANTERAS -Quarries
INDUSTRIA Industry
ELEC COMB -Gas AGUA-Water
CONS7-RUC-CION
COMm kEST amp HOTELES
TRANSP BODEGA-Storase
FINANZA Finance
SERV CO4 OTROS
Others LA REPUBLICA - TOTAL 598477 301641 3626 58726 3813 24026 51864 19098 8880 110594 16209 ZONA DEL PACIFICO
P cific RegionChinandega Leon Managua Masaya Granada Carazo Rivas
344322
48399 50329 157282 26624 19868 20374 21446
109761
23201 26116 19669 11664 6358 9753 13000
1907
213 1048 303 57 37 208 41
45387
7473 4434 19990 4697 4605 2133 2055
2980
153 194
2060 225 100 141 107
17124
105 1584
11711 740 856 723 457
42557
3233 4439 27228 2987 2134 1353 1183
15655
1881 1794 8996
921 867 552 644
7986
347 504
6264 327 273 194 77
86542
7544 9220 52811 4853 4397 4692 3025
14423
3301 996
8250 153 241 625 857
ZONA CENTRAL Y NORTE
Central amp North RegionChontales Boaco Matagalpa Jinotega Esteli Madriz Nueva egovia
193356
20608 21917 53826 31152 23495 17094 25264
144559
14923 16466 40119 26234 14552 13783 18482
97
26 14 19 7
20 -
11
10409
984 1164 2378
992 2457
631 1803
652
107 62 232 107 55 20 69
6219
918 415
2107 365 744 410
1260
7304
970 739
2126 835
1277 412 945
2708
233 299 724 323 575 198 356
623
34 105 195 97 56 60 76
19711
2161 2608 5741 2159 3250 1551 2241
1074
252 45
185 33 509 29 21
ZONA DEL ATLANTICO
Atlantic RegionRio San Juan Zelaya
60799
8307 52492
47321
6878 40443
1622
-1622
2930
258 2672
181
61 120
683
143 540
2003
232 1771
735
109 626
271
20 251
4341
556 3785
712
50 662
ESTIMCIONES REVISADAS Y BASADAS DEL CENSO DE 1971 Estimates based on Census of 1971 revised
TABLA 16 - TABLE 16
PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO Gross Domestic Product
1960-1974 MILLONTES 1958 CORDOBAS Millions 1958 Cordobas
TASA DE CRECIMIENLrPIE OR SECTOR PRONEDIO ANUAL DE Average Annual Growth RateGDP by Sector 1960 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1960- 60 6- 7174 72 7371 67 74 7 72 73 747 74
SECTOR P RIMARIO Primary Sector AGRICULTLqIA - Agriculture 589 642 705 806 941 1028 995 1070 1018 1163MINERIA - Mining 1140 1253 1306 1333 1455 6728 32 47 44 89 43 4244 44 47 21 9249 43 36TOTAL 32 32 31 32617 674 752 850 985 33 11 83 -59 -32 321072 1042 1199 1061 1199 1172 311285 1337 1365 1488 65 89 41 40 21 90
SECTOR SECLTNDARIO
INDUSTRIA - Industry 374 415 485 578 649 727 763 870 912CONSTRUCCION - Construction 56 58 71 979 1071 1123 1196 1212 1352 96 128 6581 109 124 166 150 145 65 13 116TOTAL 163 158 164 183430 473 556 658 231 250 113 151 76 116758 851 929 1020 262 821057 1142 1229 1287 1379 1443 1602 99 131 66 71 46 110
UTILIDADES- Utilities 168 180 199 224 250 281 292 316 332 353 365 382 396 419 471 76 95 59 37 58 124CTROS SERVICIOS Other Service 1181 1248 1353 1441 1566 1698 1765 1848 1900COMERCIO - Commerce 536 1954 2035 2124 2177 2197 2271570 636 708 786 857 892 )29 48 66 30 25 09 34GOBIER 0 - Goverment 157 167 179 963 995 1027 1079 1136 1183 1280 64 82171 184 189 187 213 211 47 53 41 82TOTAL 230 244 243 248 261 260 371349 1428 1552 1665 1816 1979 2057 2164 2232 2307
44 29 21 52 -042400 2506 2573 2616 2742 52 70 34 27 17 48
Total GDP 2396 2575 286u 3174 3559 3902 4028 4303 4349 4648 4801 5078 5289 5424 5823 66 87 44 42 2b 75
Incluye Transp y Comunicaciones agua gasolina y Sector el~ctrico Includes Transp and communications water gas and electricity sectors Incluye Comercio Gobierno finanzas vivienda y otros sectores Includes Commerce goverment finance housing and other sectors
Origen 1) Cuentas Nacionales de Nicaragua Departamento de Estudios Econ6micos del Banco Central de NicaraguaSource National Accounts of Nicaragua Dept of Economic Studies Central Bank of Nicaragua2) Economia de Nicaragua en 1973 y perspectivas pars 1974 ROCAP Abril 15 1974The Nicaraguan Economy in 1973 and Outlook for 1974 ROCAP April 15 19743) Nicaragua- Desarrollo Econ6mico reciente IMF Junio 14 1974Nicaragua- Recent Economic Development IMF June 14 1974
TABLA 17 - TABLE 17 PF3DUCTO INTERNO BRUTO Gross Domestic Product
1960-1974 PORCENTAJE BASADO EN 1958 CORDOBAS Percentage Based on 1958 Cordobas
PIB POR SECTORGDP by Sector 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
TOTAL PDBTotal GDP 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 ICO0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
PRIMARIO - PrimarykGRICCLTPRA - Agriculturc
MIYERIA - Mining
TOTAL PR1MARrTotal Primary
SECUNDARIO - SecondarviANL7TACTLRA - Manufacture UONSTRUCCION-Construction
TOTAL SECLnDARTOTotal Secondary
246 13
(259)
156 23
179
249 12
(261)
161 22
183
246 16
(262)
173 25
198
24 14
(268)
182 25
207
264 12
(276)
182 31
213
263 11
(274)
186 32
218
247 1
(259)
189 41
230
249 11
(260)
202 35
237
234 10
(2L4)
210 33
243
250 08
(258)
211 35
246
237 07
(244)
223 33
256
246 06
(252)
221 33
254
- 7 06
(253)
226 35
261
246 06
(252)
223 43
266
249 06
(55)
232 43
275
SECTOR SERVTCIOService Sector GOBIERNO - Goverment UTLIDADES Utility IRANSP v COM Transpamp Comm FINANZAS - Finance VVIIENDA - Housing OrROS - Other TOTAL SERVICIO-Total Service
224 66 13 57 15
105 82 562
223 65 14 56 18 99 81 556
222 63 13 57 18 90
78 541
223 54 14 57 18 83
76 525
222 52 14 56 20 75
73 511
220 49 16 5b 27 70
70 508
223 46 16 56 30 70
70 511
216 49 18 55 28 68
68 502
221 49 20 56 29 69
-0
514
214 49 21 54 24 66 67
495
214 51 22 54 26 66 67
500
213 48 22 54 27 64 66
499
215 47 20 55 20 63 66
48b
218 48 18 60 26 46 66
482
219 45 17 64 28 38 59
470
Incluve Electricidad y Agua Includes Electricity and Water
Origen 1) Cuentas Nacioral de Nficragua 1960-72 Banco Central National Accounts of Nicaragua 1960-72 Central Bank
2) Economta de Nicaragua en 1973 y Perspectivas para 1974 ROCAP Abril 15 1974 The Nicaragua Economy in 1973 and Outlook for 1974 ROCAP 15 1974
3) Nicaragua - Desarrollo Ejn6mico Reciente IMF Jun 14 1974 Nicaragua - Recent Economic Development IMF June 14 1974
The three main sectors 6 of the economy are defined as follows
I Primary (agriculture and mining) II Secondary (manufacturing and construction)
Ill Service a) Utilities (electricity water transportation amp
communications) b) Other service (commerce finance government
housing and other)
The growth rates in the historical period for the main sectors are
summarized below
MAIN SECTORS AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF INCREASE -
1960-74 1960-67 1967-74 19731972 1974 Estimated
Primary 65 89 4041 21 90 Secondary 99 131 66 71 46 110
Service 52 70 34 1727 48
Total GDP 66 87 44 2642 75
It is evident that the economy and each main sector experienced relatively high rates of growth in the 1960-67 period as compared to the 1967-74 period Contributing to the 1960-67 increase was the rapid expansion of cotton production and exports and the incenshytive for industrialization attributed to the formation of the Central American Common Market7 In the 1960-67 period the manufacturing share of GDP increased from 156 percent to 202 percent and the cotton share of crop value added increased from 11 to 32 percent(in 1965 and 1966 it was 43 and 36 percent respectively) Chemical and chemic- f- ts footwear clothing metal products and proshycessed fo j were the principal goods exported to other countries within the Central American Common Market The manufacturing and other idustrial establishments of Nicaragua are listed in Table IA23
6 The sector grouping conform to those used in the Handbook of Expected Values
7 Guatemala El Salvador Costa Rica Honduras Nicaragua
1-13
and Table IA24 of Appendix IA and the number and location of industrial establishments are shown on Figure IA10 and Figure IA1I of the same appendix
The achievements of the CACM on regional economic growth are judged to be considerable Between 1950 and 1961 the annual growth rate of the value of intra Central American trade was 21 percent which in the period following the general treaty (1961-67) rose as high as 35 percent In 1950 trade between the Central American countries accounted for only 4 percent of their exports by 1967 it accounted fov more than a q arter of the total the value rising from 86 million dollars to 220 million This remarkable expansion did not affect traditional lines of export to countries outside the area since these exports consist of a few commodities with a limited local market and are practically Ihe samen for all five countries in recent yeacs manufactured goods have accounted for nearly 70 pershycent of the totl value of intra-area trade 8
For Nicaragua trade with CACM meinber countries has resulted in an adverse trade balance during the historical period as imports of manufactuIl goods exceeded exports to CAC member countries
In the 1967-74 period the average annual growth rates decreased in all sectors of the economy In the primary sector the decrease is attributable primarily to the decline in cotton production and exports in the 1968-70 period and the effect of the drought in 1973 In terms of 1958 prices the total primary sector value added reshymained almost constant daring the 1967-70 period In 1973 the sector had a modest 21 percent increase compared with 4 percent in 1972 and 39 percent in the 1960-67 period
The economy suffered a severe setback as a result of the earthshyquake that leveled large areas of Managua in December 1972 Heavy losses occurred in the manufacturing commerce and service sectors which are concentrated in the Managua area The manufacshyturing subsector had a 13 percent real growth rate in 1973 compared with 65 in 1972 and 128 percent during the 1960-67 period Commerce had a 41 percent increase in 1973 compared with 53 in 1972 and 82 percent in the 1960-67 period The total service sector had a 17 percent increase in 1973 comshypared with 27 in 1972 and 7 in the 1960-67 period The housing subsector decreased 26 percent in 1973 The reconstruction effort started in 1973 by the Government of Nicaragua with the assistance of various international lending agencies resulted in increases
8 Economic Development of Latin America by Celso Furtado Cambridge University Press
1-14
of 262 and 393 percent respectively in the construction and finance subsectors in 1973 compared to 1972
The historical period growth rates and development patterns reshyflect the continued importance of traditional crops and agriculshytural exports the impact of increased industrialization attributed to the CACM and the disruption in the secrndary and trade sectors caused by the earthquake The pace of economic growth in the -ountry is determined to a large extent by export performance and the agriculture subsector expected continue be mainis to to the contributor in this area Table IA4 throiugh Table IAIl in Appendix IA show nazional account statistics for total GDP and selected sector Vale Aled Imports and Exports in current prices foi the 1960-72 period
A brief summary of the important characteristics of the major economic sectors are presented in the following sections
A PRIMARY SECTOR
The primary sector composed of agriculture a3d mining registered an average annual rate of increase of 65 percent during the 1960-74 period The agriculture subsector including crop proshyduction stock raising forestry fishing etc had a 67 annual rate of increase and the mining subsector had a 11 percent rate of increase during this period
The agriculture subsector the most important in the economycontributed approximately 25 percent of the GDP and employed over 50 percent of the labor force during the 1960-74 period In value added terms (1958 prices) cotton coffee and livestock productshave accounted for approximately 65 percent of the total value added in the subsector during this period
In terms of current prices agriculture accounted for approximateshyly 70 percent of the total exports of the country with cotton including cctton-seed products coffe and meat products combined accounting for 60 percent of total exports during this period
Up to 1968 cotton was the most important agricultural product in Nicaragua In the 1969-71 period this product fell behind cattle and coffee with the decrease caused primarily by reductions in area under cultivation total production and lower prices In 1972 and 1973 drought conditions adversely affected coffee and grain production and contributed to a lower real growth rate in the agriculture subsector (42 and 21 perrent in 1972 and 1973 respectively)
1-15
Recent trends show significait increase in total agricultural outshyout especially in cotton basic grains and beef The 1974 agriculshyture value added in real terms is expected to increase 9 percent over the 1973 level
Geographically agricultural output is concentrated in the Pacific North and Central regions Cotton is heavily concentrated in the fertile iow-laids of the Pacific region especially in the departshyments of Chinandega and Leon Coffee production is concentrated in the Pacific region in the departments of Managua and Carazo and in the central highland departments of Matagalpa and Jinotega
Livestock corn and other basic grains production have a wide distrishybution in the Pacific North and Central regions
The mining subsector contributes an insignificant share to the GDP (approximately 12 percent during the 1960-74 period) Mineral exshyports have averaged 87 percent of total exports during the same period however the percentage share has decreased to -approxLmately 4 percent in recent years Production of gold and silver has deshyclined during tLhe historical period Thi2 natioLiaL development plan anticipates an increase in mining output during the 1975-79 period The longer term projections made for this study recognizes the objectives to revitalize this sector of the economy and expanded production of copper zinc and lead may be realized in the future Mining most likely will continue to occupy a minor role in the national economy Historically mining activity has been located in the departments of Nueva Segovia (gold silver) Zelaya (gold copper) Chontales (gold) with other deposits located in the departments of Leon arid Chinaidega
Table 16 and Table 17 show primary sector value added on constant 1958 prices a3 a percentage of the total GDP for the 1960-74 period
B SECONDARY SECTOR
The secondary sector which includes industry and construction had an average annual growth rate of 99 percent in the 1960-74 period The sector incrensed its share of GDP from 179 percent in 1960 to 275 percent in 194 The industry and construction subsectors realized average annual growth rates of 96 and 113 percent respectively during the period Both subsectors experienced sigshynificaitly different growth rates during the 1960-67 and 1967-74 periods A surrunary of the average annual growth rates by subshysector is given at the top of the following page
1-16
SECONDARY SECTOR AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF INCREASE -
1960-74 1960-67 1967-74 1972 1973 1974
Industry 96 128 65 65 13 116
Construction 113 151 76 116 262 82
Total Secondary 99 131 66 71 46 110
The industrial subsector received considerable stimulus frum the formation of the Central Anerican Common Market during the 1960-67 period Production of chemicali and chemical products footwear clothing metal products and processed foods expanded and entered into export trade with CACM countries In the latter period proshyduction increases slowed due to the loss of some export markets (Honduras withdrawal from CACM) and the disruptioa attributed to the December 1972 earthquake
During the 1960-74 period the foodstufEs beverages and tobacco category followed by textiles clothing and leather goods were the largest contributors to industrial value added Their relative imshyportance declined during the period as the relative share of other products (chemicals nmatals and petroleum) expanded The aierage 1960-63 and 1970-73 percentage distributions of industrial value added by major product category are smiarized at the top of the following page
Industrial and construction activity shows distinct geographical concentration Table 15 containsdata regarding the economically active population for 1973 and indicates that 77 percent of the total industrial and 71 percent of the total construction activityis in the Pacific region Within the Pacific region the departshyments of Managua aid Chinandcga combined accounted for 47 and 53 percent of the nations total industrial and construction activishyty respectively 9
Construction activity registered a sharp upsurge in 1973 due to the reconstruction effort in the Managua area The construction subshysector increase estimated to be 262 percent over 1972 also was reflected in increased demand for i dustrial products in the wood product chemical machinery and metal product categories
9 As indexed by distribution of the economically active population not actual employment or value added
1-17
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR - VALUE ADDED
PERCENT BASED ON 1958 PRICE LEVEL
CATEGORY 1960-63 1970-73
1 Foodstuffs beverages 64 52
and tobacco
2 Textiles clothing and 15 11
leather goods
3 Wood and wood products 5 5
4 Paper and paper products 3 4
5 Chemical products 5 8
6 Petroleum rubber and 1 6
plastic products
7 Machinery and metal products 3 8
8 Other 4 6
Total Value Added 100 100
The construction subsector is expected to provide a strong thrust to the economy as reconstruction proceeds The relatively fast growing export products in the chemical textile and dairy prodshyuct categories provide diversified expansion in the industrial subsector and are capable of considerable additional growth
Table 16 and Table 17 show secondary sector value added in conshystant 1958 prices and as a percent of the total GDP for the 1960-74 period Table IA4 Table IA7 and Table IA8 in Appendix IA show sectoral contribution to Gross Domestic Product and coristrucshytion and manufacturing value added by category in current prices for the 1960-72 perioj
C SERVICE SECTOR
The service sector is subdivided into two subsectors - Utilities and Other Services Utilities includes transportation communicashytions warehouses water gas and electricity Other Services includes comnerce government finance housing and other activishyties not classified elsewhere This subdivision provides subshysector combinations similar to those used in the IBRD Handbook
1-18
of Expected Values of Structural Characteristics (see footshynote in Section 13)
The utilities subsector includes activities concerned with public consumer services usually having significaot capital requirements The provision of such infrastructure facilities is vital to the growth of the Nicaraguan economy Over the 1960-74 period the subsector had an average annual growth rate of 76 percent The growth rates for various periods and years are given below
1960-74 1960-67 1967-74 1972 1973 1974
76 95 59 37 58 124
In terms of value added the subsector registered a slight increase from 7 percent of GDP in 1960 to 81 percent in 1974 Priority proshyjects under the Governments programof expansion have been identishyfied in all major categories communications potable water sewershyage electric power and transportation The significant increase in activity in 1974 (124 percent over 1973) reflects the major investshyments required for reconstruction in Managua in addition to the planned expansion program in other areas Important town planning activity in Managua is directed to the development of suburban comshymercial and residential centers prior to rebuilding the destroyedhigh-density downtown area The Utility subsector is expected to increase its share of GDP as major infrastructure projects are implemented in the future
114 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA
Gross Domestic Product Per Capita increased by 36 percent annually over the 1960-74 period The average annual growth rates ranged from 58 percent during the 1960-67 period to 15 percent during the 1967-74 period This difference is attributed to a significantdecrease in total GDP growth rate between 1960-67 and 1967-74 (86 to 44 percent) and an increasing rate of population growthfrom 28 percent in 1960-67 to approximately 30 percent in 1967-74 The GDP per capita in 1958 cordobas for 1960 1967 and 1974 is shown below
1960 1967 1974
GDPCapita 1698 2529 2799
An order of magnitude comparison with other Latin American countries is provided from Gross National Product growth rates and trend data compiled by AID for the 1960-72 period Table IA12 in Appendix IA
1-19
contains data relating the Total Gross National Product and Gross National Product Per Capita expressed in 1971 dollars and is the basis for the following comparison
PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
1960-71 1960-72 1960-67
Common Market Countries (a) 23 25
Latin American Free Trade Assoc (b) 29 22
Nicaragua (c) 39 58
Nicaragua (d) 34 - 48
Note
(a) Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras and Nicaragua (constant 1971 dollars of GNP)
(b) Argentina Bolivia 3razil Chili Columbia Ecuador Mexico Paraguay Peru Uruguay and Venezuela (constant 1971 dollars of GNP)
(c) Based on constant 1955 Cordobas
(d) Based on constant 1971 dollars of GNP
Nicaraguas per capita growth rate for most of the historical period exceeded that of other Latin American countries It deshycreased in 1973 as a result of a slowing in total GDP growth (25 percent) Per capita GDP is expected to rebound in 1974 with approximately a 4 percent increase over 1973
115 PROJECTIONS OF TOTAL GDP - 1975-1988
For purposes of this study alternative projections of total GDP in the 1975-1988 period are based on the differential growth rates of two historical subperiods 1960-67 and 1967-74 Table 16 sumshymarizes the growth rates described previously in Section 113 It is difficult to base a GDP projection for the next decade on existing knowledge of the substantive changes likely to occur in each economic subsector For long term planning it is necessary to project a range of possible GDP growth rates that could occur in the future
1-20
Nicaragua and other Central American Common Market countries exshyperienced fairly high economic growth rates in the 1960-67 period particularly in the years 1960-65 For Nicaragua it is generallyagreed that growth factors other than those which existed in this period (predominantly expanded cotton production and CACM industriashylization) must exist before the relatively high average annual rate (86) can be realized in the future This rate is termed the high alternative over the projection period
In the 1967-74 period a combination of factors reduced the total GDP average annual growth rate to 44 percent These factors inshyclude a decline in production value and exports of some important traditional crops drought reduced grain and livestock production and the devastation caused by the December 1972 earthquake which affected commerce manufacturing and government subsectors
Given the countrys development objectives and resources inshycluding assistance from various international lending agencies outlined in the Governments 1975-79 development plan it is evident that a higher growth rate is expected in the 1975-80 peshyriod than that experienced during 1967-74 The rate for the 1967-74 period is termed the low alternative over the projection period
The average growth rate is based on the overall rate experienced during the entire 1960-74 period (65 percent) and is in close agreement with the projection of the Government of Nicaragua and other agencies for the 1975-79 period Considering the long term nature of prajections made in this study it is reasonable to assume that the rate of GDP growth will decline slightly in the 1978-88 period A most probable long term growth rate is deshyrived by assuming that the average growth rate will be 55 pershycent in the 1978-88 decade Table 18 Table 19 Table I10 and Figure 11 show the alternative total and per capita GDP proshyjec tions
116 PROJECTED SECTORAL CONTRIBUTION TO GDP
The sectoral contributions to GDP for the 1960-74 period are shown in Table 16 and Table 17 Graphs of the four main sectors (Primary Secondary Utilities and Other Services) percentage conshytribution to GDP in the 1960-74 period are shown in Figure IA2 through Figure IA5 During the historical period the Primary sectors share has remained relatively stable with agricultures share increasing during the mid-1960s and ending in the 1968-70 period due to the drop in production of some of the major crop categories Mining suffered a decline from 13 in 1960 to 06 percent during the period
1-21
TABLA 18 - TABLE 18
PRODUCTO DOMESTICO BRUTO TOTAL Y POR CAPITA Total And Per Capita Gross Domestic Produit
PROYECCIONES ALTERNATIVAS 1978-1988 Alternative Projections 1978-1988
PRODUCTO DOMESTICO BRUTO TOTAL Total Gross Domestic Product MILLONES DE 1958 CORDOBAS Million 1958 Cordobas
ANO
Year
BAJO
Low(a)
PROMEDIO ALTO
Average (b) High(c)
1974 5832 5832 5832
1978 6922 7538 8120
1983 8574 10388 12280
1988 10621 14317 18571
PRODUCTO DOMESTICO BRUTOCAPITA Gross Domestic ProductCapita
1958 Cordobas
ANO Year
BAJO Low
PROMEDIO Average
ALTO High
1974 2799 2799 2799
1978 2890 3147 3390
1983 3030 3671 4339
1988 3198 4311 5592
MAS PROBABLE Most (d)
Probable
5832
7538
9852
12876
MAS PROBABLE Most Probable
2799
3147
3481
3877
(a) 1974-88 Tasa de Crecimiento basado en una tasa promedio annual 1967-74 de 44
Growth Rate based on 1967-74 average annual rate of 44 (b) 1974-88 Tasa de Crecimiento basado en una tasa promedio annual 1960-74 de 667
Growth Rate based on 1960-74 average annual rate of 66 (c) 1974-88 Tasa de Crecimiento basado en una tasa promedio annual 1960-67 de 87
Growth Rate based on 1960-67 average annual rate of 87 (d) Mas probable 1974-78 = 66 1978-88 =55
Most probable
TABLA 19 - TABLE 19
PROMEDIO ANUAL DE TASA DE AUMENTO DE PDB TOTAL 1960-1974 Y PROYECTADO 1975-1988 PORCENTAJE BASADO EN 1958 CORDOBAS
Average Annual Rate of Increase of Total GDP 1960-1974 Projected 1975-1988 in Percent Based on 1958 Cordobas
PERIODO BAJO PROMEDIO ALTO MAS PROBABLE
Period Low Average High Most Probable
1960-74 66
1960-67 86
1967-74 44
1974-78 44 66 86 66
1978-88 44 66 86 55
TABLA I10 - TABLE I10
PROMEDIO ANUAL DE TASA DE AUMENTO PD3 POR CAPITA 1960-74 Y PROYECTADO 1975-1938 PORCENTAJE BASAD EN 1958 CORDOBAS
Average Annual Rate of Increase GDP Per Capita 1960-74 and Projected 1975-1989 in Percent Based on 1958 Cordobas
PR(OM ALTO
Period Low Average 11igh Most Probable
1960-74 36
1960-67 58
1967-74 15
1974-78 08 30 49 30
1978-83 09 31 50 20
1983-88 10 32 52 20
fERIOO BAJO EDIO MAS PROBABLE
--
_____
80000 __ _ _ ___________I H----ishy
60000_ ATRN TS DE PIEOYECCINES DEL1 PRODUCTO INTERNd60000 BFUTO--- - -- ALTRN TA Pt --- -- q 1I 50000 shy -B)TOTAL R CAPITA
-i _
400a ALTERN4TIVE Ta I IDOQESTIIC RJ IIN O T AND PRqAP RSPRODUCTI (GDP)
30000 I--_ _ 1 bull
- I 20000 1 - I -i I
- 0to I I
8 o _0 ------ -- + 4- - - - Mos p----1000 cc~__ 000
H____- I- f P B T O T A L EN I L L OI E OC OFD O B A D E FS 5 8 r _ _ - _ _ i - shy
4000 0 0 i
1i ___ ___
o= iG P PERI- CAPIOTA CA -
oo_4--- coD~ -- 4- I -ni ------ C__PP__
1960 1961 1962 963 1S6 4 1965 1966 1967 s9Fa 1969 j970 1971 1972 1973 974 r975 1976 1977 978 97 980 981 982 1963 984 1985 1986 1987 1968 989 1990ANOS Years
The Utilities Sector including transportation warehouse communishycations electricity gas and water has a modest increase from 70 percent in 1960 to 81 percent in 1974 with 1973 and 1974 reshyflecting the disruption in utility services in the Managua area due to the earthquake
The Other Service Sector - Commerce Government Finance Housing and other subsectors declined from 492 percent in 1960 to 389 percent in 1974 All subsectors except Finance registered declines Commerce the largest subsector in the Other Service category reshymained stable with only a slight drop (224 to 219 percent) between 1963 and 1974
The basic assumption used in this study is that the four main sectors in terms of their contribution to GDP will not experience a radical or abrupt shift from the positions established during the historical period Such shifts may in fact occur however on the basis of the present information on the future prospects of the economy abrupttrend reversals are considered unlikely It is assumed that the longer term changes in sectoral composition of GDP will occur gradually and each sectors share of GDP during the 1975-1988 peshyriod can be projected on this basis
An additional assumption used in the sectoral projections is that the structural characteristic of other countries having comparable population GDP per capita levels and the investment - domestic savings coefficients can be used as a reference and benchmark when extrapolating the sectoral composition of the Nicaraguan economy over the next 15 years (Table IA13) By relating the 1960-74 trends and the expected values obtained from an analysis of the structural characteristics of other countries the projected sectoral composition of GDP for the alternative growth rates shown in Table I11 was obtained
An input required for this approach is an estimate of the reshysource gap - defined as the difference between total investment and domestic savings - expressed as a percent of GDP Table IA14 in Appendix IA shows historical estimates of the resource gap in Nicaragua and the projected values selected for use in this study A summary of the valuesexpressed in percent of GDP are given below
1960 shy 72 Average 35 1973 40 1974 48 1978 30 1988 25
1-24
TABLA I11 - TABLE I11
CONTRIBUCION SECTORAL AL PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO
ASUMIENDO BAJO PROMEDIO ALTO Y MAS PROBABLE TASAS DE CRECIMIENTO
PARA EL PERIODO 1978-1988 EN PORCENTAJE DE PIB
Sectoral Contribution to Gross Domestic Product Assuming Low Average High And Most Probable Growth Rates
For The 1978-1988 Period in Percent of GDP
ANO TOTAL TASA DE CRECIMIENTO PRIMARIO SECUNDARIO UTILIDAD SERVICIO PIB Year Growth Rate Primary Secondary Utility Service TOTAL GDP
1974 255 275 81 389 1000
1978 Bajo-Low 255 292 83 370 1000 Promedio-Average 247 300 83 370 1000 Alto-High 247 300 83 370 1000 Mas Probable-Most Probable 247 300 83 370 1000
1983 Bajo-Low 254 304 84 358 1000 Promedio-Average 240 320 35486 1000 Alto-High 228 340 92 340 1000 Mas Probable-Most Probable 240 320 86 354 1000
1988 Bajo-Low 253 320 86 341 1000 Promedio-Average 233 340 90 337 1000 Alto-High 203 370 97 330 1000 Mas Probable-Most Probable 240 333 33988 1000
Table 112 and Table 113 show the sector projections in absolute amounts and in percent of GDP for the most probable growth rate Table 114 shows the implied average rates of increase by major sector for the alternative growth projections for the 1974-1988 period Table IA15 through Table IA20 in Appendix IA show the sectoral values for the high average and low projections over the forecast period Figure IA2 through Figure IA5 in Appendix IA show the projected sectoral percentage values and Figures IA6 through IA8 in Appendix IA show the total GDP and sectoral values (in millions of 1958 Cordobas) for the high average and low growth projections
A more detailed estimaL of the projected sectoral composition of GDP is made by disaggregaLing the Primary Secondary and Other Service sectors The detailed subsector projections cannot be considered as having the same degree of reliability as the main sector projections The disaggregation is based on historical peshyriod trends and estimates of what the subsector relationships will be in the future The main sector projections are subdivided in the following manner
PRIMARY Agriculture (including livestock forestry etc) Mining
SECONDARY Manufacturing Construction
OTHER SERVICE Commerce Other Service Less Commerce
UTILITIES - none
Table 115 shows the historical period subsector relationships and the projected percentage distributions over the 1978-1988 periodThe actual values for each subsector are based on the most probable GDP estimate For alternative estimates based on the high average and low GDP projections the subsector percentage distributions are assumed to remain constant Table IA21 in Appendix IA shows the implied subsector growth rates based on the most probable projected values for GDP
The foregoing sections outlined the methodology for projecting total GDP and sectoral values that can be used in estimating potential electrical energy consumption levels during the forecast periodThe independent projections of future economic activity thus provides a useful framework within which the detailed electrical energy foreshycasts contained in the following section can be evaluated The resulting correlations of energy sales with selected socioshyeconomic parameters are presented in Section 13
1-26
TABLA 112 - TABLE 112
PRODUCTO INFERNO BRUTO POR SECTOR Y PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO TOTAL POR CAPITA 1960-1974
Y PROYECTADO t975-1988 ASUMIENI)O LA TASA DE CRECIMIENTO MAS PROBABLE
Gross Domestic Product by Sector and Total Gross Domestic Product Per Capita 1960-1974
And Projected 1975-1988 Assuming the Most Probable Growth Rate
VALOR AADID)O POR SECTOR-MILLONES DE 1958 CORDOBAS P1B POR Value added bv Sector Millions o 1958 Cordobas
AO CAPITA PRIMAR rO SECUNDAR fO SERV SERV OTRO SERV PIB Year (19581) Primary Secondary To t a I UTI Other Serv TOTAL
1960 1698 617 430 1349 108 1181 2396 1961 1772 674 473 1428 180 1248 2575 1962 1912 752 556 1552 199 1353 2860 1963 2060 850 658 1665 224 1441 3174 1964 2253 985 758 1816 250 1566 3558 1965 2410 1072 851 1979 281 1698 3902 1966 2427 1042 929 2057 292 1765 4028 1967 2529 1119 1020 2164 316 1848 4303 1968 2494 [061 [057 2232 332 1900 4349 1969 2600 1199 1142 2307 353 1954 4648 1970 2620 1172 1229 2400 365 2035 4801 1971 2689 1285 1287 2506 382 2124 5078 1972 2706 1337 1379 2573 396 2177 5289 1973 2692 1365 1443 2616 419 2197 5424 1974 2799 1488 1602 2742 471 2271 5832
[978 3147 1862 2261 3415 626 2789 7538
[983 3481 2364 3153 4335 847 3488 9852
1988 3877 3090 4288 5498 1[33 4365 12876
TABLA 113 - TABLE 113
DISTRIBUCION DE PORCENTAJE DE PRODUCTO PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO POR SECTOR 1960-74 Y PROYECTADO 1975-1988 ASUMIENDO LA TASA DE
CRECIMIENfO MAS PROBABLE
Percentagc Distribution of Gross Domestic Product by Sector 1960-74
and Projected 1975-1988 Assuming the Most Probable Growth Rate
ANO VALOR ANADIDO POR SECTOR 7 - Value Added by Sector year PRIMARIO SECUNDARIO SERV OTRO SERV SERVICIO
primary Skcondary UTIL Other Serv TOTAL
1950 259 179 70 492 562 61 261 183 70 48( 556 62 262 198 47170 541 63 268 207 71 454 525 64 276 213 70 441 511 65 274 218 72 436 508 66 259 230 72 439 511 67 260 237 73 429 502 68 244 243 76 438 514 69 258 246 75 420 495 70 244 256 76 424 500 71 252 254 76 423 499 72 253 26i 75 411 486 73 252 266 78 404 482 74 255 275 81 389 470
78 247 300 83 370 453
83 2 240 320 86 354 440
88 240 333 -8 88 339 42
TABLA I t4 - TABLE 1 14
TASAS DE PROMEDIO ANIJAL DE AUMENTO EN EL PRIMARIO SECUNDARIO UTTLIDAD Y SECTORES DE SERVICTO 1960-1974
Y PROYECTADO BAJO ASINCIONES AITERNATIVAS DE CRECIMIENTO 1975-1988 EN PORCENTAJE rASADO HEN1958 CORI)OBAS
Average Annual Rates of Increase in the Primary Secondary Utility and Service Sectors 1960-1974
and Projected Under Aiteraative Growth Assumptions 1975-1988 in Percent Based on 1958 Cordobas
PERiUDO PRIMARIO Feriod Primary
1 2 3 4
1960-74 65
1960-67 89
1937-74 41
SECUNDARIO Secondary
1 2 3 4
99
t31
66
UTILIDAD Utility_
1[ 2 3 4
OTRO SERVICIO Other Service
1 2 3 4
76 48
95 66
59 30
1974-78 43 58J 77 58 60 90 110 90 51 7 3 94 73 30 53 72 53 1978-83 43 b0 69 49 52 80 113 69 116 74 108 62 36 56 68 46 1984-88 43 60 61 55 54 80 105 6L 48 76 9 8 60 34 56 79 46
1974-q8 43 59 68 53 55 83 110 73 48 74 100 64 34 55 73 48
I Combinacion de tasa de crecimiento bajo de P)B total y contribucion sectoral al PI13 mostrado en la Tabla IA19
2 Combinacion de tasa de creciiniento promedio de PIB total y contribucion sectoral al PIB mostrado en [a Tabla iA15
3 Combinacion de tajsi de crecimicnto alta de PIB total y contribucion sectoral al PIB mostrado en la Tabla IA17
4 Combinacion de tasa de crecimiento mas probable del PI13 total y contribucion al PIB mostrado en La Tabla 12 - Tasa de Crccimniento de IIB total en Tabla 19
Incluye Comercio Gobierno Finanza Vivienda y otros
I Combination of a low growth rate ot total GDP and Sectoral Contribution to GDP as given in Table 1A19
2 Combination of an average growth rate of total GDP aad Sectoral Contribution to GDP as given in Table IA15
3 Combination of a high growth rate of total G)P and SectoraL Contribution to GDP as given in Table IA17
4 Combination of a most probable growth tate of total GDP and Sectoral Contrishybition to GDP as given in Table 112 Total GDP growth rates shown in Table 19
Includes Commerce government finance housing and others
TABLE 115 MINING AS PERCENT OF TOTAL PRIMARY CONSTRUCTION AS PERCENT OF
TOTAL SECONDARY AND COMMERCE AS PERCENT OF OTHER SERVICE VALUE ADDED 1960 - 1974 AND PROJECTED TO 1988 BASED ON MOST PROBABLE GDP ESTIMATE
VAjUE ADDED IN MILLIONS OF 1958 CORDOBAS
Sector and Sub-Sector Value Added
YEAR Total Primary Mining
Mining As Primary
Total Secondary Construction
Const As Secondary
Total Other Service Commerce
Commerce As Service
1960 617 28 45 430 56 130 1181 536 454 61 674 32 47 473 58 123 1248 570 456 62 752 47 63 556 71 128 1353 636 470 63 850 44 52 658 81 123 1441 708 491 64 985 44 45 758 109 144 1566 786 502 65 1072 44 41 851 124 146 1698 857 505 66 1042 47 45 929 166 179 1765 892 505 67 1119 49 44 1020 150 147 1848 929 503 68 1061 43 41 1057 145 137 1900 963 507 69 70
1199 1172
36 32
30 27
1142 1229
163 158
143 129
1954 2035
995 1027
509 505
71 1285 32 25 1237 164 127 2124 1079 508 72 1337 31 23 1379 183 133 2177 1136 522 73 1365 32 23 1443 231 160 2197 1183 538 74 1488 33 22 1602 250 156 2271 1280 564
60-74 Av 38 140 503
78 33
1862 2364
55 71
30 30
2261 3153
334 479
147 152
2789 3488
1562 1953
560 560
88 3090 93 30 4288 688 160 4365 2444 560
Includes commerce government finance housing and other sectors
Percentages assumed to remain constant for alternative GDP Projections
12 LOAD GROWTH WITHIN THE INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM SERVICE AREA
The analysis of power system load growth contained in this section is intended to provide a basis for prefeasibility level planningof generation and transmission system expansion for the ENALUF Sistema Interconectado Nacional (SIN)
As the development period under consideration is 1978-1988 an extensive analysis of energy consumption growth trends was made for each of the sectoral components of total load for all load zones of the existing interconnected system service area in order to obtain short-range projections to the beginning of the development period in 1978 Five-year projections were made for the period 1975-79 corrcsponding to the duration of the present5-year economic plan being iplemented by the Government of Nicaragua These short-range projections also enabled an accurate representation of the recovery of energy sales from the effect of the 1972 earthquake From the short-range projections of sectoral energy sales base-year values and initial growth rates were obshytained to enable energy forecasts to be completed for the developshyment period 1978-88 Long-range load demaid and energy forecasts were made for each load zone of the future service area for the 15-year period 1975-1989 New load zones were added to the existing service area to correspond to the connection of load areas with isolated generation to the interconnected system and the introduction of rural electrification in areas selected for priority development These load zones are scheduled for initial service from the interconnected system in 1975 1978 and 1981
121 DEIMARCATION AND COMPOSITION O1F LOAD ZONES
The extent of the area to be served by the interconnected systemis shown on Figure 12 The service area extends geographically along the western half of Nicaragua and encompasses all of the Pacific Zone most of the Central and Northern Zone with the exshyception of the easterly parts of Matagalpa and Jinotega and a relatively small area of the Atlantic Zone comprising the northshyern part of the Department of Rio San Juan and a small area around Rama in the Department of Zelaya The borders of Nicaraguawith Honduras and Costa Rica form respectively the northern and southern boundaries o- the interconnected system service area
The division of the service area into load zones has been made for the purpose of establishing principal load areas for transshymission system dlanning Load areas are formed by appropriate groupings of lod centers which are to be supplied from main substations As far as possible the zone boundaries follow departmental boundaries but deviations occur where necessitated by specific considerations which facilitate future system planning
1-31
L Ly L DA
L E G E N 9)
S CONCOER shy LCLPES4 C L 0
r R ou
S COEIRAM -COOPERATIVA OE E F R 17 -9 P t AMEPALSQUE
S COERORI - CCCPERATI E - J- A~l0PJ VRUL De14-
S 1A - v A0 01 ESTEil (CPE0T ECS CV JAI
Fi E F-CACC PUhA01 TES DE
Sshy16S
JIIWTEGA
~u n o GCDN A
12at
RICASrCOST IZEA
FIG 1 2
c
ZONA I
ONA2
LTo^I ZONA 3
o p~ C i= ZO~l
-- 90 099042
ZONA5
ZONA A
ZONA 7
o -M
C
~o
t ZONA P
ZONA 9
9- f-
91390 ( IC
II0
dO Poo0
ZONA I
eooxo
E ~ ~~~VIO 499 90
MIO
ktmCIcc
ZONA
ZONA DE CARGA- CENTROS DE CONSUMO
LOAD ZONE - CONSUMPTION CENTERS
ZONA 13 MANAGUA-COSTADE CARAZOMANAGUA
93 I Sot ft I 3
2 C04 I
3 00609
3 Loft s-f IS So P O
3 6 C - 1 S35o Le 71mida IC-1ooOXOLOTLANSUR
93 3 3Ao 90GISle2 I 6-d00
ZONA 14 JINOTEGA SUR XOLOTLANOESTE
Z I 4 flf lltQIII~14I t ET E7
to t1O Cotfit 94 2 ISOP 09
14 3 3000 Aelft09
3 3 0990g49 3 4 Cl To9o0
EONZONA IC 2)OTLAN ELSTE
i IL I ZONA16 NUEVA SEGOVIA-MADRIZ- ESTELI
LEON RURAL 90II AftIs0 90 S Tlofttlltf
Ii 3 Polo l ftft
3 2 009OIfIIII
CHIMAP9EGA- CORINTO
ZONA IT ESTELIIl
CHICHIGALPA POSOLTEGA + I ZONA 18 COERAM
CONODER ZONA 1S COERDRI pftlfnttllft 5I 9001I|90I0 RVIcentO~llfltio
4 RAll MASAYA
ft I ueoft - 9 ZONA 20 ELECTRIFICACIONRURAL OE MATAGALPA
2
CACACR I ZONA 29 ELETRIFICACION RURAL DEL RAMA
L 90C IfI00 21 2 21 3
LE o Io(min C l
CAPAZc r-RTE IC-I 3ft0ft90ft ZONA22 ELECTRIFICACION AURAL MANAGUA-LEON
S o fttft 1 0
At0 01-1 22 3 Lo
I tO Oft 0 Affl f22
I 090000l (
33 9 to J90i4n 9ttltff 224A So ft o Ofc t~f
90 1o 01
ZONA 2 ELECTRIFICACIONoRURAL (AFAO
JINOTEGAZONA 24 ELECTRIFICACIONRURAL
24 1 L Co090
MATAGALPAOESTE ii 0oI C
92 4 tft Y9090ftf11fllfth 2 9f00
iX M
EMPRESA NACIONAL DE LUZ Y FUERZA MANAGUA DN NICARAGUA
PLANGENEVAk DE DESAPROIIO NAIONA POWER STUDY 1978 1988
SISTEMA INTERCONECTADO NACIONAL
RVII7
INTERNATIONAL ENGINEERING COMPANY NC
1200 shy
The boundaries of exisLing rural electrification cooperatives and areas demarcated for future rural electrification are well defined Although some of these areas are large in geographical coverage they have been designated as individual load zones due to the conshyditions of supply in that usually bulk power is delivered at wholeshysale by ENALUF for retal distribution by the respective cooperative
As of December 1974 the interconnected system supplied a total of 62 load areas grouped into 17 load zones including the well estabshylished cooperatives of CAEER 1 CONODER COEAM and COERDRI These existing load zones and their respective load certers are shown on Figure 12 (Zones 1-15 18 and 19)
A new northern cooperative was established in July 1974 which inshycludes six load centers in the Departments of Madriz Nueva Segovia and Esteli presently supplied from local diesel units This cooperashytive Will form Load Zone 16 and is scheduled to be connected to the ENALF system during 1975 In addition the wholesale supply to the town of Esteli will also be connected to the ENALUF system during 1975 and the service territory will be designated as Load Zone 17
Future rural electrification will be implemented directly by ENALUF with priority to be given initially to areas near Muy Muy in the Department of Matagalpa and Rama in the Department of Zelaya These two areas have been designated Load Zones 20 and 21 respectively and are scheduled for connection to the interconnected system in 1978 Rural electrification will be introduced to three other areas in 1981 these being an area comprising contiguous parts of the Departments of Managua and Leon a rural portion of the Department of Carazo and a central area in the Department of Jinotega These three areas have been designated Load Zones 22 23 and 24 respectively The completion of this extensive rural electrification program will provide the basis for the possible formation of future cooperatives in specific developshyment areas
The zonal division of the service area will enable considerable area coverage from the load center substations of the interconnected system by the end of the development period During the planned expansion the transmission system will be extended and strengthened to supply forecast toad growth of existing load centers and future growth followshying rural electrification
122 SHORT-RANGE LOAD PROJECTIONS FOR EXISTING LOAD CENTERS
The development period for the prefeasibility study is 1978-88 and so the determination of the base-year (1978) load levels and rates of growth for existing load centers required a short-range trend analysis of energy sales based on the historical record for individual load censhyters grouped by ENALUF load zone A total of 68 excisting load centers were grouped into 19 load zones including Zones 16 and 17 which from 1975 on will form part of the total load on the interconnected system
1-32
Consumption statistics for the load centers comprising each load zone were compiled by the ENALUF staff of the Department of Economic and Statistical Studies The historical record of energy sales for shortshyrange trend projections were taken to be 1967-74 this correspondingto the second sub-period used for determination of economic trends Statistics for this 8-year period were sufficiently homogenous toconstitute a reasonable basis for regression analysis As the stashytistics were compiled before the end of 1974 which was considered as a year of record actual recorded statistics were obtained for the months January through October with adjusted statistics and estishymates made for November and December respectively Energy salesstatistics were divided by sectoral components seven retail sectors residential commercial industrial government public lightingirrigation and (potable water) pumping together with energy sold at wholesale In order to obtain a close representation of load growthfor cooperatives receiving energy at wholesale from ENALUF the reshytail sectoral statistics were combined under the wholesale categoryfor the entire historical record including the years prior to the formation of a particular cooperative
In order to determine the most appropriate projection of energysales over the period 1975-79 each of the eight load categories wassubjected to multiple regression analysis using six different typesof trend equation these being
Exponential of form y = abx Polynomial of form y = a + bx (Straight line)
2y a + bx + c x (2nd Degree Parabola) y = 2 3a + bx + c x + d x (3rd Degree Parabola) y = a + b x + cx2 + dx3 4+ ex (4th Degree
Power Function of form y = a x b Parabola)
These six types of trend equation provide a range of curve typeswhich are suitable for extrapolation of energy sales data one ofwhich being chosen to represent the most appropriate projection for aparticular set of historical data points In order to select the curvewhich best represented the trend of the data under analysis a judgeshyment was made based upon careful consideration of the derived correlashytion coefficient for each curve type and the reasonableness of the projected values in relation to the historical record together with an assessment of the trend of historical and projected growth rates This selection process was facilitated by a computer program designedto provide comparative values for the curve equations under examination An example of the output of this program (TRENDS) for each of the loadcategories is given in Appendix IB Sheets IBI through IB8 One feature of this program allows the exclusion of anomalous sets of data points Thus the trend analysis for Load Zone 1 which includes Managua was performed with the exclusion of 1973 data relating to the recovery period following the earthquake of December 1972 In this
1-33
way a more representative set of sectoral trends was obtained with a minimal influence of the abnormal year following the large loss of urban load
Once the trend selection had been completed for all retail sectors and wholesale load categories the short-range projEctions for each load zone were performed using a second computer program (REGEX)This program combined the separate trends specified for retail and wholesale blocks to obtain the projected values and growth rates for total energy sales The short-range projections for Load Zone1-19 are given in Appendix IB Sheets IB9 through IB27 Punched output was also obtained for sectoral energy values over the period1974-78 to form part of the long-range forecasts 1975-1989
123 LONG-RANGE FORECASTS FOR SERVICE AREA LOAD ZONES
The development plan for the interconnected system expansion is tobe dfCneC ever the period 1978-1988 thus for purposes of establishshying U load growth from 1978 long-range forecascs were completedfor each of the 24 zones comprising the future service area of the interconnected system
Program (Z0NLOD) was used for long-range forecasting with projectionsof sectoral growth patterns over the period 1979-1989 following the short-range projections to 1978 These load zone forecasts are conshytained in Appendix IB Sheets IB28 through IB51 In addition to continued load growth within Zones 1 to 19 of the future service area beyond 1978 forecasts were also completed for the new load zones formed to encompass two stages of rural electrification within the overall Eervice area The first stage consisting of two zonesMatagalpa and Rama are scheduled for completion of electrification in 1978 these were designated Load Zones 20 and 21 respectivelyIn addition three areas in the Departments of Managua Leon Carazo and Jinotega are scheduled for rural electrification by 1981 These areas are included in Load Zones 22 through 24 and complete the area coverage within the boundary of the interconnected system sershyvice area For each of the zones careful attention was given toestablishing sectoral growth rates representative of the likely conshytinuation of the short-range trends determined for the period 1975-1978 The 15-year forecast period was divided into five year intervals withsuccessive growth rates applied beginning in 1979 and 1984 followingthe short-range projections to 1978 Intrinsic to the growth trends established is the assumption of a resurgence of consumption patternsfollowing the availability of additional sources of hydro-electric energy during the later years of the decade of development 1979-1988
Retail and wholesale energy sales were combined to obtain the total energy sales for each zone to these were added energy losses as a percentage of energy sales Distribution losses were estimated at an average of 12 percent of retail sales and sub-transmission losse enshytailed an additional 2 or 3 percent For bulk supply of energy to wholesale customers only the sub-transmission loss component was inshycluded
1-34
Load factors were estimated for each load zone at the base year of the forecast and successive increments applied annually to allow for gradual improvement of the load factor through time based uponthe experience of ENALUF with similar load composition in other areas Projections of annual peak demand were obtained by applicashytion of changing load factor to total annual energy consumption within each load zone
To facilitate the totalization of load projected for all the load zones of the interconnected system the zone forecasts were obtained from the output of program Z0NL0D in both punched and printed form
124 LOAD FORECAST FOR INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM SERVICE AREA
A summary of the total load for the interconnected system was obshytained using program (SINL0D) which totalized the forecasts for inshydividual load zones The two part summary is given in Appendix IBSheet IB52 The first part provides a summary tabulation of total sales for each of the retail sectors and to wholesale together with total energy sales The second part consists of the forecast of gross energy generation and total system peak load demand together with the resultant annual system load factor
Gross energy generation is obtained by the addition of a decliningpercentage energy component to total energy sales representingtotal system losses and company usage including station service at generating plants The historical decline of this energy componentis given in Appendix Table IB2 as a percentage of both total energysales and groG6 generation the trend being illustrated by the curves of Figure IBl It may be observed how the percentage losses have been substantially reduced from the beginning of the historical record However normal experience indicates that it becomes progressively more difficult for a utility to reduce this loss component On the ENALUF system the possibility of realizing a steady decrease is apparent and systematic attention to design standards and efficient operation should enable a level approximating 15 percent of grossgeneration to be attained by the end of the forecast period For this forecast an annual decrement was applied to the loss component to enable an overall improvement of 15 percent to be realized over the 15 year forecast period
Annual non-coincident demand for each of the load zones was totalized and an overall system coincidence factor applied to obtain maximum coincident demand An initial coincidence factor of 070 was appliedin 1974 which was then increased over the 15-year forecast period to 075 in 1989 to represent the gradual rise of system coincidence over time To the total coincident demand was added a demand loss component decremented yearly to correspond with the decreasing energy loss in order to realize a 3 percent improvement over the forecast period
1-35
The annual system load factor was computed at generation level from gross energy generation and total load demand From the recorded 1974 level of 666 percent the value declined steadily over the 15-year forecast period to 633 percent in 1989 This reflects in part the effect of the rural electrification program in that system load additions have predominantly low load factor charactershyistics
The historical record for the ENALUF interconnected system service area is given in Appendix IB Table IBI this together with the 15-year forecast is summarized in Table 116 The average compound growth rates for the two 15-year periods is given below
1960-1974 1975-1989
Total Energy Sales 160 103 Gross Generation 152 101 System Peak Demand 140 105
The curve of system peak demand shown in Figure 13 rises to five times base-year (1974) load level at the end of year peak in 1990 The curves of retail and wholesale energy sales indicate a strong reshycovery from the effect of 1972 earthquake during the period 1973-76 with resumption of normal growth during the latter years of the current five-year plan for 1975-79 An average growth rate of approxishymately 10 percent for energy sales is indicative of the sustained growth that can be expected over the development period 1978-88
The sectoral growth curves for retail energy sales are shown in Figures 14 and 15 The leading sector is industrial sales the growth of which was little impeded by the earthquake and during the forecast period its high growth rate and magnitude of energy sales constitute tii main determinants of the entire forecast Residential and commercial sales second and third in order of magnitude and growth rate both exhibit a sharp recovery from the effect of the large loss of urban load caused by the 1972 earthquake Residential and commershycial energy sales were severely affected by the Managua earthquake with reductions to sectoral sales of 26 and 38 percent respectively during the first recovery year 1973
The growth of public lighting energy requirements is steady with a trend following the pattern of growth between 1968 and 972 prior to the earthquake After a relatively small reduction in energy sales for public lighting in 1973 a rapid recovery is indicated during 1974-75 with the resumption of normal growth in 1976
A strong recovery of sales to government is observed after the severe reduction due to the earthquake After 1975 a year of continued reshycovery and consolidation the energy sales to government follow a growth trend that is indicative of stability and expansion in the
1-36
public sector
Energy sales for irrigation purposes are normally subject to the particular requirements of an irrigation season The historical growth of irrigation sales is uneven and sporadic the large inshycrease of 4845 MWH experienced in December 1974 is the principal reason why the total energy sales for the base year 1974 used for trend analysis differed from the actual recorded value Afshyter 1976 the growth of sales for irrigation exhibits a steady and high rate of increase
Energy sales for potable water pumping continue the growth trend apparent over the historical period the high rate of growth causing the sales for potable water pumping to equal those for irrigation in 1982 after which pumping energy exceeds irrigation requirements for the remainder of the forecast period
In general it nmay be observed that the trending techniques used for short-range projections of energy sales enabled a excellent simulation of the recovery of the energy market from the effect of the 1972 earthquake and established a firm basis from which longshyrange forecasts were completed
Table 117 indicates the percentage composition of retail and wholeshysale energy in terms of total sales together with the average comshypound growth rates over the periods 1974-1988 and 1975-1989 The percentage values are based on the energy sales data included in the summary of Appendix Sheet IB52
Industrial sales expand their percentage share of the energy market together with wholesale energy the remaining retail sectors all exhibiting a declining percentage of the total market through time In 1986 industrial sales account for approximately 47 percent of all energy sales this proportion being maintained for the remainder of the forecast period indicating a certain stabilization of the industrial sales component The growth of the wholesale component from about 15 percent of total sales in 1974 to approximately 24 pershycent in 1989 is an indication of the anticipated growth of the cooperative movement the wholesale category including the five established cooperatives
The average compound rates of growth given in Table 117 for the two 15-year periods 1974-88 and 1975-89 emphasize the impact of the earthquake on the entire forecast The growth during the recovery period 1973-75 is so rapid that the average growth rate for the forecast period beginning in 1975 is appreciably less than the growth rate for a similar period beginning in 1974 For the 1974-88 period the overall growth rate for energy sales 109 percent is just above the average rate established by the correlation of eronomic trends with energy consumption described in the next section
1-37
TABLA 116 - TABLE 116
RESUMEN DE REGISTROS HISTORICOS Y CARGA PREVISTA PARA EL SISTEMA INTERCONECTADO Summary Of Historical Record And Load Forecast For Interconnected System
TOTAL AgO VENTAS de ENERGIA year Energy Sales
GWI
REGISTRADO Recorded
1960 798 1961 908 1962 1091 1963 1283 1964 1560
1965 1874 1966 2180 1967 2503 1968 3224 1969 3724
1970 4178 1971 4515 1972 5382 1973 5044 1974 6333
PREVISTO Forecast
1975 7435 1976 8369 1977 9387 1978 10567 1979 11594
1980 12740 1981 14098 1982 15544 1983 17166 1984 18724
1985 20451 1986 22368 1987 24499 1988 26870 1989 29045
GENERACION EN BRUTO
Gross Generation GWH
1037 1160 1394 1668 1983
2300 2692 3160 3788 4384
4956 5237 6337 6028 7527
8840 9942
11142 12533 13738
15084 16678 18373 20273 22095
24112 26350 28835 31599 34128
DEMANDA CUMBRE Peak Demand
MW
FACTOR GRGA Load Factor
307 251 291 340 382
572 528 547 560 593
448 563 628 694 775
586 546 574 623 646
903 1100 1237 1145 1290
627 544 585 601 666
1520 1720 1940 2200 2410
663 659 656 651 649
2660 2950 3260 3610 3940
647 645 643 641 640
4310 4720 5180 5680 6150
638 637 635 634 633
IOO-----0 shy T0-- OO00 900 - - _XI - -v - -_ 00
Boo -6 shy 8000 70oo- - - I ] 5V C SI t - -- too
5VECES-VELtC XRGKDE-1974 o1tT 60o PROYECCION DEDEMANDA YENERGIA TOTAL _ I_ -i-5-L S74- oadLave _-__ 600
-O -LL--- PARA EL SISTEMA INTERCON ECTADO NACIONAL 5000
4 0 0 7TOTAL LCAD DE AND AIND ENER GY FORECAST FOR - o------- Si STEANNTERCQNEOTADQ -NACrON 4U (StNf) - - -Ji - --- - -tv- shy
7 7 - 7 - 7-- e -_7 - 7--
_ -__ _ _ _ _ _ _
~~ ~ 2i DE D I ~ ~ - ~ VECES HIVEI CARIGOA 9 4 P GrosEner y ~I
400 90 Ei StN 1 740
960- ------ 6 2 1974 1975 976 8 7 88Gen 98 9 9
o L i _ _ _ N_ EN A L N tGAS _ R
Lu i J ] T t l Enl g 110= To a e o l Sales- 20C A- 1shy
- A - SAi - I A T=lt _ -7 _ I _ ] bull t I 700
~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - - - - --- -- - 7
~- -shy30 ~~~~~~~~ 7--- 7-600i
~ - - I I~-- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I --
I0~~~T 7 0 -7-2 0J
1960 1961 19152 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 _1972 1973 1974 1971 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 198T 1988 1909 1990
A NO0 Year
c
(1000
90001 ---- 7------T
8000
- I __ _ _
coC -----6000 ---------shy _ _
VENTAS AL POR MENOR DE ENERGIA POR SECTDRES PARA LAS AREAS DE SERVICIO DEL SISTEMA - INTERCONECTADO NACIONAL RETAL SECTCRAL ENERGY SALES FOR SERVICE AREA - __
I
OFSISTEMA INTERCONECTADO NAC--NAI- (S N
zccent I w t ] - 1 _ I- INA ( I OETD N7iI- - -
-MiS -- us 1- 1e - - -- -_- -- - T_gtco I 1shy
c _ I _ I - l 4- i
-bull-- - i -1---I 11- I a A F40 e r
IVNA IAE C~ M____VNAERSI1 A
deg Cc jiij i11i- III
9 =2 9F 9 61 cent6 9 7 1 9 1 97 197 197E 1130- 9 9213 19 - 48 19 6--1 - 1
_ 7 - _ 1-
I-
g cg Ia39g 96 IC 5 1966 1967 968 19C 9gif 1971 97 2 7 4 _ 19UI t977 1978 1979 1C30 1982 1963 1984 idB3 1988 I F I 9f9 tO9Q
ANO eor
__
1ooo - 000 - - - - - -_____ -- -- -- - - - -
600700
I Z 7 4 i
- -
-
VENTAS AL POR MENOR DE ENERGIA POR SECTORES _ _ PARA LAS AREAS DE SERVICIO DEL SISTEMA -INTERCONECTADO NACIONAL (SIN) RETiL- S AT L EN R r _AES FOCRV i E I
SAREA 0 T Lshy2
PC Cj BOMBEO
11 AL
0 -shy
-4Iriato
-T99_ 7
9
lt-
-7 _
-7iSbull _ _ _
9
bull
1
T 1-__ I__
_ _ __I t 979 1
l t i - t 7[
iLt-shy 1983
t
A
1
-tt- I
-- -t
9 i
U
-7 -___71 _ i _J 7
- - shy-- i94 I ~~ T -- - _ _I ____ _
9 bullq Is shy 11 - 196 19-3 196 1TT 197 19 7 _ 197 197 19 7 197 19 7 19T 19 8 19-7 19 8 19 8 1r~~~~~ 9 6 1 97S -183 9 -TTN_Z--- -- ~~0 1 _- Year-I - --__ i T -_ --- - shy
TABLA 117 - TABLE 117
COMPOSICION uE PORCENTAJE Y TASAS DE CRECIMIENTO PARA VENTAS DE ENERGIA DENTRO DEL qTSTEMA DE AREA DE SERVICIO INTERCONECTADO
Percentage Composition and Growth Rates for Energy Sales Within Interconnected System Service Area
VENTAS POR -MNOR SECTORIALES COIO E DE VNfTAS TOTAL DE ENERGIA
AllO Year
RESIDENCIAL Residential
Sectoral COMERCIAL Commercial
Retail Sales As INDUSTRIAL Industrial
7 Of Total Energy Sales COBIERNO ALUM PUBLICO Government Public Lighting
IRRIGACION Irrigation
BOMBEO Pumping
TOTAL VENTAS FOR MENOR
Total Retail
TOTAL POR MAYOR Wholesale
VENTAS TOTAL Tota Sales
1974 176 102 428 34 18 49 42 849 151 1000
1975 175 101 419 37 17 49 42 840 160 i000
1976 165 96 432 35 16 49 42 835 165 1000
1977 156 91 445 32 15 48 43 830 170 1000
1978 152 86 454 30 15 47 43 827 173 1000
1979 147 82 459 29 14 47 44 822 178 1000
198C 141 79 463 28 14 47 45 817 183 1000
1981 138 76 466 26 13 47 46 812 188 1000
1982 133 73 470 25 13 47 46 807 193 1000
1983 128 69 473 24 12 46 47 799 201 1000
1984 125 67 474 23 12 45 47 794 206 1000
1985 121 65 473 22 12 46 48 789 211 1000
1986 118 62 475 21 11 45 48 780 220 1000
1987 115 60 475 21 L1 45 48 775 225 1000
1988 112 58 475 20 iC 45 49 769 231 1000
1909 110 57 474 19 10 45 49 764 236 1000
PROMEDIO COPLESTO - Average Compound TASA DE CRECIMIENTO - Growth Rate
1974-1988 74 667 1187 687 667 1037 1207 1027 1447 1097
1975-1989 66 57 112 527 63X 967 1167 95 1337 1037
13 CORRELATION OF ECONOMIC TRENDS WITH ENERGY USAGE
In order to provide a basis for establishing the validity of the energy forecasts presented in Section 12certain correlations were made between selected socio-economic pi-3meters and energy sales to determine growth rates and leveis of energy consumption within the service area of the interconnected system The histoshyrical and projected economic trends presented in Section 11 have been used to provide the statistical base for relating economic activity with energy consumption Total Lilergy sales were correshylated with the growth of GDP but the statistical range of total energy sales was derived from the correlation of the growth of GDP per capita nd toal energy consumption per capita with the population projection being used to obtain the growth of total energy consumption to 1988
The estimating equations used for the correlation of principal trends were obtained using a curve selection computer program for multiple regression analysis each curve equation being ranked in terms of the best fit ie highest correlation coefficient comshybined with lowest standard error to minimize the sum of the squared deviations about the regression curve The estimating equations thus obtained were then used for the determination of future values by extrapolation following the substitution of trended socio-economic parameters These wece then compared with the forecast values obtained fotLowing the meLhodology described in Section 12
131 CORRELATION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION WITh1 SELECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC PARAMETERS
Total energy consumption within the service area of the interconnected system is subdivided into seven retail sectors plus wholesale as inshydicated on the historical reccrd given in Appendix Table IBl The user categories are as ollows
Retail Sectors Residential Commercial Industrial Government Public Lighting Irrigation Pumping (Potable Water)
Wholesale
To identify and quantify the historical (1960-74) relationships correshylation analyses were made assuming energy the dependent and socioshyeconomic activity the independent parameter
1-40
The following pairs were correlated
EnergyConsumption Parameter Socio-Economic Parameter
1) Total Energy sold Total GDP (1958 prices) 2) Energy sold per capita GDP pei capita 3) Industrial Energy sold Secondary sector Value added 4) Commercial Energy sold Commierce sbsector Value added 5) Commercial Government Total Service Sector Value added
Public Lighting and Pumping Energy sold
Electrical Energy Parameter Socio-Econoimic Parameter
6) Government Public Lighting Total Service minus Commerce and Pumping Energy sold Value added
7) Residential Energy sold Total population 8) Residential Energy sold Urban population 9) Residential Energy sold Number of DWelling Units
10) Residential and Comnercial Urban population Energy sold
A computer program was used to calculate the coefficients of estimashyting equations using multiple regression analysis on successive pairsof the above parameters The program selected the best curve fit from three curve types under analysis
1 Straight Line y = a + bx 2 Exponential y = abx 3 Power Function y = axb
The program calculated the coellicients of the estimating equationcorresponding to each of the three curve types ranking each equationaccording to the best curve fit in terms of standard error and correshylation coefficient thus minimizing the sum of the squared deviations about the regression curve
The estimating equations obtained for each of the correlations were used to extrapolate future values of energy consumption by substitushytion of approp-iate values obtained from trends of socio-economic parameters Appendix Table 1C1 shows the historical energy consumpshytion and socio-economic values used for the correlation analysisTable IC2 shows the projected values of the socio-ecoromic parametersused for the estimation of potential energy consumption in the 1978-88 period based on the most probable GDP projection Table IC3 shows the 1974 base year and extrapolated energy values calculated from alshyternative estimating equations for the years 1978 1983 and 1988 Figures ICl through IC7 are graphs of the regression curves for the correlations and estimating equations referred to in Appendix Table IC3
1-41
Note
1) Actual 1973 and 1974 values for certain parameters were adjusshyted to compensate for the abrupt trend reversals in energy consumpshytion and economic activity attributed to the December 1972 earthshyquake This was done by assuming that without the earthquake the average rate of increase experienced in the three previous years would continue in 1973 and 1974 The revised values were considered more appropriate when establishing trend equations for extrapolation purposes Appendix fable ICl shows the actual and estimated or reshyvised values for the parameters involved
2) The forecasts of potential energy demands shown in Table IC3 are presented without attempting to evaluate the reasonableness of the longer term values - say the extrapolations beyond 1983
132 COMPARISON OF SELECTED TOTAL AND SECTORAL ENERGY PROJECTIONS
As may be observed from a comparison of the values for energy consumpshytion contained in Appendix Table IC3 the range of projections can vary significantly depending on the socio-economic parameter and estimating equation used In this section certain projections are selected for more detailed analysis and for subsequent comparison with independently prepared forecasts of total and sectoral energy consumption
A TOTAL ENERGY PROJECTIONS
The key correlation used for the estimation of total energy consumpshytion is that of GDP per capita and energy usage per capita The seven estimating equations given in Table IC3 Section B pertain to the alshyternative correlations of these parameters the resulting projections are shown in Figure IC8 these being combined into the high average and low projections given in Figure 16 The total energy consumpshytion projections obtained from the high average and low per capita projections of Figure 16 combined with population projected in Table 13 are shown in Figure 17 Also shown superimposed on this figure is the total energy sales forecast for the interconnected sysshytem obtained from the summation of detailed forecasts at the zone level The actual projected values for the high average and low energy consumption levels together with the total anergy sales foreshycast for the interconnected system are given in Table 118
The differentials between projected and forecast values of independentshyly prepared analyses are indicative of the close relationship of econoshymic growth as measured by the rise of GDP per capita and the increase of energy consumption in terms of per capita usage The close corresshypondence between projected and forecast levels for energy sales within the service area of the interconnected system indicates that the deshyfinitive forecast to be used for system planning is almost identical to the average energy projection obtained from [nacro analysis at the system level
1-42
------------------ ------ --- - ----------------------
lIT------shy - - I~ i -- ---shy t - __ __
-- -
4 o o00 0
3 0 10 0
-
SISTEMA INTERCONECTADO NACIONAL ENIERGIA ELECTRICA TOTAL VENDIDA PER CAPITA-[] I
- SISTEMA INTERCONECTADO NAC iONAL
I - _ -_
I
i
-
+
i
I
TOTAL ELECTRICAL ENERGY SOLD PER CAPtA I f - I shy 1 I I - - oo - F T H Projection --shyi
HISTORICO 1960- 1974 - H itorlcal 1960-1974 _ ver CIe prjec i100 e 1e d 1988 - - Proetion195 Average - i98OO- -- - --- -- --- - jT)- -rie td 9t5 B-- -
7degdeg J + I-- lt2 - --
-W 4 400~Idegdeg o I E l A O - - - - + bull I---+ i bull -
z4L0- PROYECCON -- BAJA12 -- ----- - Low Projection
- A C T U AL _lt
o ----- -90 _ - -
ROCYECCI EL PROFDO DE LA r JACIPNES DE ESTIMACION 1 2 TABLA I C 3 SECCION Be PROYECON F-R )MCDO k EN EL IHb NO DL LS K JACIONES DE ESTfIWPI 3f 5 TABLA r C-3 SECCION 8II I lt~PROYIECCIGtN BAJA BASA7A 17LA FCLIACIDN DC ESTIMACIGN 7 TABCA 1C3 SECCON B-shy
40_I LUANDO L PROYIECCION MAS PROBABLE DE PRODUCTO IJTERNO FRUTO PER CAPITA
High Projection Based on Avea-je Of Estimir 1 E ualioa I 2 Table IC - 3 Section BI i IAvzrage Projection Based on Average of EsiT-naling Equotion 3j5Tobl rC -3 Seclion B
l Lo rojecon aid n Eu Oti 7PTable ICo- 3 Scoi o Ettmatng h20 Usng Gron Domestic Product Per IC poa MotProbiblei Proiection I~ 2
I- I C I J - - I - -
I I I
1983 0F 6 nv5 19S-14 96 S8 1967 C-8 I969 19 0 197 197Z 1973 1374 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198C2 1991 1982 1983 1984 1985 198d 1aB6 =b i s 19 0
AI OYeaor
__
- -
6000
ZiIJ
-----500 -
- 7- Foo- -4--
SISTEMAi INTERCONECTADO NACIONAL VENTAS TOTALES DIE ENERGIA _
1 f 1-- j
I
- -
-
- ------
I
- __PROYECCJ--
- 7
--shy1
--
ALTA
bull
4000 _
3000 0I0
3000 STEMAI NTERCONECTADO NACIONAL
TOTAL E1LECTRIGAL ENERGY SALSTOT-AL SALES 1
--
1t - ---- --
PROYECCION PROBA6LE
-0
-
---- -
2000 HISTORICO
------PROYCTADO -960-974-
974 1988 - -
I -- Proba Foec ost
i =- LASLAS PROYE6CIONESSAN ESTAN BASADAS EN iI LOS IVELES --- -I - shy - - - - ___ - t -PROYECCION -shy 1- PROMEDIO7
w -
_ DDE GONSUMO DE ENERG A PER CAPI A ALTO PROMEDIO - Average Proeco
1000
700 1
hWgh
IHisforcaI
e ited energI usag
1960 -1974 -974 -1198
levee1 -
- -shy
POY
I f
- ECC ION BA JA -
600 | _ _ - Revised | - - -- L
00 -- I - I - - v -
I
gt E-1 I bull - I -- _P oj t t PROBABLE- - Average Projection I
o0- 7 1960 -1974 ACTUAL = 162o CRECIMENTO PROMIE[DIO NUALAv rogeAnn~rlI Increose o-- - - - --shy
70 PRCMEA Average P37 - I
60- -- -- BA 67 -1 -- -shy0ALTA -CUA = 156 se -A
1Hgh - --- - - 1------0 PROMEDOLa Average 93 740 - 19~~~l78- I ----- --
__- shy1978-
-I ____ 50 I- ----- r-b ble Forecast 15 40 _______ _fiji- -_-__ 4BA AL w 56 - - i I
9--s - 3 -- - I 94 9 979 j 1 i L
19 -bull-I I 7 E
196 9E9 62 1953 1964 1965 ICS 1967 63 1969 1970 1 i 973 974 1975 1976 977 1978 1979 980 t981 9B2 83 I 84 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 C Y ear
_________________
TABLA 118 - TABLE 118
ENERGIA ELECTRICA PROYECTADA TOTAL Y VENDIDA POR CAPITA ASUMIENDO USO DE ENERGIA ALTO PROMEDIO Y BAJO
Projected Total Electrical Energy Sold Per Capita Assuming High Average and Low Energy Usage Levels
S~~~~~~~~~kwh
POR CAPITA - Per Capita TASA USUAL - Usage Rate 1974 1978 1983 1988
Alto - High 460 754 1356 Promedio - Average 308 (E)
334 (R) 449 587 796 Bajo - Low 347 395 454
Tabla de Referencia IC3 Parte B
Reference Table IC3 Part P
Proyeccion de Nivel Alto z-Promedio de Ecuacion-s Estimando 1 + 2 High Level Projection = Average of Estimating Equations I + 2 Proyeccion de Nivel Promedio = Promedio de Ecuaciones 3 + 5
=Average Level Projection Aerage of Equatiors 3 + 5 Proyeccion de Nivel Bajo = Ecuacion 7 Low Level Projection = Equation 7
ENERGIA PROYECTADA TOTAL VENDIDA ASUMIENDO USO DE ENERGIA DE NIVEL ALTO PROMEDIO Y BAJO POR CAPITA
Projected Total Electrical Energy Sold Assuming High Average and Low Per Capita Energy Usage Levels
en millon kwh NIVEL TOTAL DE USO Total Usage Level 1974 1978 1983 1988
Alto - High 1102 2134 4503 Promedio - Average 6420 (E)
6963 (R) 1075 1661 2644 Bajo - Low 831 1118 1508
Comparacion con Valores Previstos Probables Comparison with Probable Porecast Values
Previsto - Forecast 6284 (S) 1057 L717 2687
6333 (A)
(E) Valores Estimados para Oct -Dic 1974 con Valores Actuales Registrados para el resto del ailo Estimated Values for Oct-Dec 1974 with Actual Recorded Values for Balance of year
(R) Valor Revisado para Ajustar Efecto de Recuperacion de Terremoto al Minimo en 1974 Revised Value to Adjust Effect oC Earthquake Recovery to Minimum in 1974
(S) Suma Estadistica de Carga de Zona p-ra Enero-Oct 1974 con Valores Estimados para Nov-Dic Sum of Zone Load Statistics for Jan-Oct 1974 with Estimated Values for Nov-Dec
(A) Valor Actual Registrado pra 1974 - Ver Table IBI Actual Recorded Value for 1974 - 9PP Tah1 TR T
B SECTORAL ENERGY PROJECTIONS
The sectoral projections of electrical energy consumption based on socio-economic correlations were calculated from the estimating equations shown in Table IC3 The projections to 1988 were adjusted to fit the high and average totals of Table 118 the resulting levels being given in Table 119 Graphs of the historical high and average projections to 1988 are shown in Figures 18 19 and I10 with the sectoral forecasts obtained from micro-analysis superimposedfor comparison The energy consumption sectors are combined as follows
1 Residential 2 Commercial 3 Industrial 4 Government Public Lighting Potable Water Pumping 5 Residual (which includes Irrigation and Wholesale)
The irrigation and wholesale sectors were treated in this way as socioshyeconomic correlation data was unavailable for these sectors Irrigation energy use can be correlated with expansion plans sources of water (surface versus groundwater) and energy use coefficients Wholesale energy correlations are difficult to quantify as the sector includes a variety of uses occurring within a subregion the subregion being served in certain areas by an electrical cooperative agency The rural electrical cooperatives are currently planning for significant service area expansion in various parts of both the North and Central and Pacific regions
In general increased electrial energy consumption in the residentialcommercial and other non-indusLrial sectors reflect improVement in standards of living and welfare of the population increases in indusshytrial production and productivity are reflected in the growth of industrial energy consumption
In Nicaragua industrial energy expanded at an average annual rate of approximately 22 percent during the period 1960 to 1974 - the highest rate of all sectors Residential commercial and other non-industrial uses had annual growth rates of 82 and 64 percent respectivelyduring the 1958-1967 period Both sets of data suggest that historishycally industrial production gains have outpaced the standard of living increases In Nicaragua as previously mentioned major planning efforts are being made to extend and improve service in the non-urban centers through the rural electric cooperative movement
The historical data on actual sectoral composition of electrical energy consumption are somewhat distorted by the lack of definition of wholeshysale sector end uses Such distortions may increase to the extent that the wholesale sector increases its share of the total market
1-44
TABLE 119
ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY SALES BY SECTOR IN 1988
Category Electrical Energy Sold (10O kwh)
1960 1974A
1960 1974A AvAnn Inc
1974A-1988 Estimating Equation Table 17
Estimating Equation Projected
Values 1988 106 Kwh Inc
1988 Adjustshyment to High
Total 106 kwh Inc
1988 Adjustment to Average Total 106 kwh 7 Inc
A) Residential 243 1030 109 H-1 349 91 343 90 266 70
B) Commercial 61 650 184 E-1 708 185 179 75 139 55
C) Industrial 169 2680 217 C-3 2467 173 2140 160 1155 110
D) GovtPublic Ltg amp Pumping 117 640 128 F-i 480 154 243 100 188 80
E) Total(A+B+C+D) 590 5000 165 4004 163 2905 134 1748 93
F) Residual (Irrigashytion amp Wholesale)208 1420 146 None 499 94 1598 190 896 140
Total 798 6420 Total High Projection High 1974-88 Annual Inc Total Average Projection Average 1974-88 Annual Inc
162 4503 150 4503
150 2644
106
Implied Average Annual Rate of Increase
10000 9000 - -8000 7000
0 _ COMPARACION DE LA PROYECCION PROBABLE CON EL RANGO 1 1 I 500
4000-
300 0--
-TRSRESID
o
DE PROYECCIONES ALTA Y PROMEDIO PARA LAS VENTAS _ OTALES DE ENERGIA DE LOS SECTORES RESIDErIAL
COMERCIAL E INDUSTRIAL bull
TOTAL ENJERGY SALES FOR RESIDENTIALCOMMERCIAL AND
1INDUSTR IA SEcTO
COMFARSON OF PROBABLE FORECAST WITH RAN G OEF AVERAGE AND1 HIGI PROJECTIONS I
shy
-
HigPro ecton
ALTA
900900goo
700
0
4 0 -
-i -
[
INDUSTRIALshy J -shy i
I I I o
I
ii
i
I
i
Average
i
I ndustril Forecast
PROYEM ON PROMEDIO
Proe on
bullbull
YECCION ALTA- -
-
GooT-I 6l s6i 6 F r a 9-9
500
so BN CCbull
8o
II
i ~~~ -
-
~ ~ A O
E
- -
p
--
PRYE
--
O COECA
7
---
IJ
96 2- - r 1Q9 1967 9f 1969 1970 1971165
1978 1979 9 bO l190 198L 1983 198 41 198 5 8 86 1987 19FI 8 -84 72 1973 1974 9 7 5 7C 177 199C
KcC -i Yec 9
- -
__
- - - - -+- i - - --- - - - I
DELA RO8ABLE [-- --t--- - -- --shy
--- PARACION DELA PROYECCION PROBABLE CON Eq RANGO DE PROYECCIONES - - -- ALTA A PROMEDI--PARA-PUI LICOY-BOMBEO _ _ ____L- i ]]iLA-VENIAS I_ |I O IRNOTAIJUMBRA TOTALS DE ENERGIA PARA- -OS-SECiORES
SADOBIER AU iADO- ~ ~ 1 _
i I -- - - - -T- --- -- ____ S
RRO]EC N E -T 0
GOVT ILG+- V- -jR NG L 7 -7- 7
- - ___ - L E y Pr jecii-LN 4 t- U-L T -UHR N A 771
-0-N SAID
t RO ECC7 PR BA LE
- _ - i L 1t -r -Io t shy et
71 ___ Poo~cFreat
0 I -iO--- E
j Xz bull - i- -
L1- TI i
iI[ -- 1 +t r -- L + + i+ -- t i
960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 196 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 9 986 1987 1988 98 9 A Year
-- j- il - -4
COMPARACION DE LA PROYECCION PROBABLE __ I__tCON EL RANGO DE LAS PROYEClONES PROMEDIO 1-Y-A TAPARA LAS VENTAS_ TOTALES -iEERI
3000 t- DEI SECTOR-tiRRIGAClO YNE-VNTASALPOR MAYOR -T- L-ENERGY-SALES FOR-iRRIGM-TON SEJTOR AND WOLESAq shy2000 tcM ARL E_6FPR61BABLEF ECJS] WLT_- cL DFEII - -
AVERAGE ANO HIGH POJETIOtS I - It--shy
I H _ PROY PLTAECCIO
I PRO -goo --300__ -I --- - __ e -- l _ P r- shyp--- -i-- T -- - ctio
00 _ _ _ _
400 lHi PROYECCION PCG9BLES-- - - Prob -bleForecast
300 I
too - - - - - - - -L - -- - ---- -- i_ - -
T O I-shy - d - _ -o- t~- __ _ __ _ -_ _ ____ __
-_ oI - -0 9 1 7 9 7 9 59 9 -1 77 8 7 31980 982 - -919-- - - 89 9 -7 889 980-990o-- ---- I I-- -- shy
-- O7l712iiI m
ji7~ 10 _ ___ojj -__ _ __ _
197190 9696 162166193 94 98 199 97 171 192 193 97 75 19S 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 A NO0Ye CI
The energy consumption projections contained herein have not exshyplicitly considered two important factors that affected consumpshytion patterns during the historical period They are
1 The impact of price on demand levels For at least part of the historical period electric power rates in Nicaragua were relatively high compared with rates in the other Central American Cournon Market countries Rate reductions have been made in an attempt to improve the utilization factor Assessshying the impact of price on demand would require some knowledge of the price elasticity relationships for the major energy use categories It may be useful to compare the general level of rates expected to prevail in the future with historical rates to determine to what extent this factor may be an important determinant of future consumption
2 The effect of persistent supply interruptions or shortages on the level and pattern of consumption In developing estimating equations sectoral totals were adjusted in 1973 and 1974 to account for earthquake related disruptions
133 COMPARISON OR ENERGY PROJECTIONS WITH GROWTH OF CONSUMPTION IN OTHER COUNTRIES
In order to establish the growth potential in Nicarapgua relative to other countries with similar levels of development both the historishycal energy usage and alternative projections were compared with crossshysectional data for selected countries with a per capita GNP equal to or less than $1000 including certain countries of Latin America
Table 120 provides a source of energy data for 50 countries from which a selection was made to obtain specific data relating to 25 countries which had a per capita GNP within the prescribed limit of $1000 Figure I11 displays the general relationship or electrical energy consumption per capita and gross national product per capita obtaining from the 1968 values contained in Table 120
The per capita data for the selected countries is shown on Figure 112 with a regression line drawn through the point scatter to illustrate the correlation between total energy sold per capita and GNP per capita for the selected countries Superimposed on the graph is the historishycal relationship between these parameters for Nicaragua together with the high average and low projections developed by correlation analysis for this study
A similar graph is given in Figure 113 with the historical and proshyjected relationship between net electrical energy consumption per capita and GDP per capita for Nicaragua superimposed on average reshygression lines depicting correlations over the periods 1955-57 for data developed for 19 countries of Latin America
1-46
FIG I - II
CONSUMO DE ENERGIA ELECTRICA (EE) PER CAPITA vs
PRODUCTO NACIONAL BRUTO PER CAPITA 1968
ELECTRICAL ENERGY (E E) PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION VS
104 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT PER CAPITA 1968 9 -4---4-- -4shy9
-
CANDA4 7 - -E shy
6 SWITZERLANOD I NEW ZEALANDT
4 -UNITED KINGDOM e -
E GERMANY t AUSTRA D AUSTRIAATRAA
to - - - - -
I FINLAND CZECHOSLOVAKIA
WGERMANYNETHERIANDS
-oL)
___ - - - j
USSR JAPAN
J DENMARK S FRANCE
-
w 2 S AFRICA 2TALY -I ~UL9ARJA SAL
IRELANDI
UjSPAI~ IN HUNGARY
W - _10_U L VIAM a 9 - 1 a iG REECE
bullGE-TINAw 7 T__IW CHILE JRIGENS--- - URUGUAY shy -I-
BAI L MEX C1 IlJ4 Z
WJ 00 4COL MBIA 3 GHANj eI
CD-I
wI -UNITED ARAB JOIRAQ -shy
z REP~~ ~2 ~ ~ -- - __- -
NICAR GUAKOREA
SYRIA
I01 INDIA THAILAND shy
102 15 2 25 3 4 5 6 7 8 9103 15 2 25 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 104 PRODUCTO NACIONAL BRUTO PER CAPITA DOLARES DE 1968 1968 Gross National Product Per Capita 1968 US Dollars
FUENTE PROBLEMAS DE ENERGIA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS VOL I1 APENDICE PARTE A NOV 1972 NTISi PB207518
Source U S Energy Problem Vol 1i AppendIces Part A Nov 1972 NTIS PB207518
TABLE 120 WORLD ENERGY DATA
(1968)
40 0
rion 820 011 3 - 2 7
A 0 t3 1 20 0 86 4 5
2 Argeia 23617 820 1936 42 758 062 169 92
6 Brazil 88209 250 22052 13 433 11 382 173
7 Bulgaria 8370 8 Canada
9 Chile 10 Taiwan 11 Colomhlia 12 Cuba 13 Czechoslovakia
14 Denmark x 15 Ethiopia
16 Finland 17 Fraice 18 Germany East 19 Germany West
x 20 Ghana
20772 9351
13466 20043 827014362 4870 24212 4689 49920 17084 60765 8376
770 2460 480 270 310 3101240
3800 70
1720 2130 1430 1970
170
6445 51099 4488 3636 6213 256417809 10081 1695 8065
106330 24430 18525 1424
too 254 35 24 17 31173
141 7
o6 98
162 134 4
1845 8433
734 741 338 5562875
2469 15
3787 2363 3718 3304
310
063
11
07 11 068 061057 060 07 13 082 078 084 26
155 1754
69 10 67 45414
121 36
178 1179 632
1989 26
240 343 154 275 108 176232 120 21
221 173 259 168 183
x 21 Greece 8803 740 6514 30 830 094 73 112 22 23 24
x 25 26
Hungary India Iraq Ireland Israel
10255 523893
8634 2910 2745
980 10 260 980
1360
10050 52389 2245 2852 3733
4 6
14 86 60
1282 94
244 1655 2037
052
054
044
066
12
132 495 21 48 55
131 94 94
168 147
27 28
Italy Japan
52750 101090
1230 1190
64883 120297
66 75
1970 2677
10
12 104 2706
160 225
29 Korma South 30470 180 5485 17 174 035 53 97 x 30 Mexico
31 Netherlands 32 New Zealand
47627 12725 2828
530 1620 2000
25242 20615 1050
32 120 80
480 2646 4357
051
075
19
227 336 122
90 163 216
33 Norwayx 34 Pakistan 3819123163 2000100 763812316 1283 1581546 42052 6015 78741 35 Romania 36 South Africa 37 Spain 38 Sweden
19721 19781 32621 7918
780 650 730
2620
15382 12858 23813 20745
72 82 39
161
1411 2130 1408 7114
067
089
12
15
278 409 459 562
181 318 193 271
39 Switzerland 40 Syria 41 Tailand 42 Turkey
61475701 33693 33550
2490210 150 310
153061197 5054
10401
9013 6
13
5016135 92
206
19035
052
054
30677 31 69
2064 61 66
43 U SR x 44 United Arab Republic 45 United Kingd m
x 46 Uruguay
237798 31693
55283 2818
00 170
1790 520
263956 5388
98957 1465
122 9
150 24
2686 211
4038 679
075 08
092
096
6387 67
2233 19
242 124 226 130
x 47 Vietnam South 48 Yugoslavia
x 49 Lebanon x 40 Nicaragba
1741 20154 2580 1744
130 510 560 402
2264 10279 1445 701
30 37 21 9
47 1020 401 185
016
094 0063
81 206 10 03
36 20 072 026
CNPCAPITA E E ET figures have a wide maregIn- oferro7rshy4 Selected Countries Source US Ener2y Problem 1 81Appendices Part A Nov 1972 NTis PB207518
Coriparab)Le Values Inserted in Original Tabulation
Conventional Abbreviations
ross National Product -GNP Electrical Energy =fEEBritish Thermal Unit = Btu Total Energy = ETKilawatt-hour = kWh Megawatt - MW
Sources Intern~ational Bank of Reconstrcton and Development World Bank Atlas Populatin Per CapitaProduct and Growth Rates 1970
2 Population Reference Bureau Inc 1971 World Populatin Data Sheet 3 Statistical Office of the United NatioxNew York NY Statistical Yearbook and Demographic Yearbook 4 Electriea World lnternational Directory of Electrici Sup ers 1970-1971 Edition
5 Encyclopaedia Britannica Book of the Year 1971 Edition
References to Estimating Equations All Countries - See Table IC3 Equation B-6 Selected Countries - See Table IC3 Equation B-5
FIG 1 12
3 0EN RG A ELCRIC PER CAPITAIS
PRODUCTO NA I(NL BF UTO PER CAPITA
ELECTRICAL 1--N RGY PER CAPITA30 00- S
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCI (GNP) P R CAPITA
2000 bull-
PROYECCION 1988 ALTA_ 19 High Projection1000 -- PA SES ME GNAD S CON ENO roe
900 PE- CAPITA 001 1 )
800 -- 5Se cte CCo)n hetT GN c Im u ) ( _ _ _ _ _ _ _ A-_ _ _700 _
0 __ PROYECCION 60 P MIWEDTshy
3 500 - _y__ Proec on
400 -PRO ECClON BAA
0o-__ Low Drojection=ar-300 0
- N _ _a 200 - - - _ _ _ _ _ _
ICARAGUA (1960 - 1974)-J o
LLJ 9 0
C-__70 _ __ _ ____ - _ i- o 70 shy
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - -WJ 60 - _ _ _
I-JI
2046000 0 _O_0 I0 - O 10U ___ -30
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 100 200 1000 PRODUCTO NACIONAL BRUTO PER CAPITA (DOLARES DE 1968) Gross National Product Per Capita (1968 )
2000
FIG I bull13
AMERICA LATINA CORRELACION ENTRE CONSUMO ELECTRICO PER CAPITA Y PRODUCTO BRUTO PER CAPITA
LATIN AMERICA CORRELATION BETWEEN NET PER CAPITA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND PER CAPITA GROSS PRODUCT
PROMEDIO 1965 - 1967 Average 1965 - 1967
ESCALA LOGARITMICA Logarithmic Scale
Y PROYECCION ALTA
1000- PER CAPITA shy- PER CAPITA
800- High Per Capita Projection PROYECCION PROMEDIOR O PER CAPITA -
(n Ave rage Per Capita8W 500 Prdjection7
Z PROYECCION BAJA 03 oj 14 P ER CAPITA
= 16 Low Per Capita Projection5 300
a ) Log Y= 1286 Log X- 086 (- C r r 087
o13
o8 NICARAGUA 0207 0 1960-1974
S 100 - 9 WJE z 800
L) 0 -o
-) 50 -CURVA DE REGRESION REPRESENTANDO u i LA CORRELACION PARA EL PROMEDIO DE 1955-1957
W Regression Curve Representing The 0- 30 Correlation for the Average 1955- 1957
LIJ Z
0 )oU 010
10 11 1 1 i I 1 1 150 80 100 300 500 700 1000
PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO-DOLARES A PRECIOS DE 1960 POR HABITANTES Gross Domestic Product Dollars at 1960 Prices Per Inhabitant
I Argentina 6 Chile I1Honduras 16 Peru 2 Bolivia 7Ecuador 12 Mexico 17 Republico Dominicano 3 Brasil 8 El Salvador 13 Nicaragua 18 Uruguay4 Colombia 9 Guatemala 14 Panama 19 Venezuela 5Costa Rica 10 Haiti 15 Paraguay
FUENTE BOLETIN ECONOMICO PARA AMERICA LATINA VOLXV N22 SEGUNDO SEMESTRE DE 1970 NEW YORK 1971
Source Economic Bulletin For Latin Atnerica Vol XV N2- 2 Second Half of 1970 New York 1971
Historically Nicaragua experienced a relatively high growth rate in per capita energy usage when compared with the average growth
rate implied from the cross-sectional data Both Figures 112 and 113 indicate that the High and Average projections for
Nicaragua exceed the average derived from the cross-sectional data for both selected countries with GNP per capita less than or equal to $1000 and the 19 countries of Central and South America
The rate of growth of per capita energy consumption is indicative of the relative position of Nicaragua with respect to other countries Selected time series data on the average annual rate
of growth of per capita electrical energy usage are summarized below
Latin America World Average
1958-1967 1958-1967
50 59
(generated)
Nicaragua
1960-1967 1967-1974
144 112
(sold)
1960-1974 128
High 1974-1988 112 Average 1974-1988 70
Low 1974-1988 28
Source Economic Bulletin for Latin America Vol XV No 2
Second half of 1970 NY 1971 page 53
With a significant portion of future system expansion expected in areas other than the main urban centers (eg rural electrification) the incremental per capita rate would be less than the present average
Alsothe historical growth rate is calculated from a relatively low base of 57 kwhcapita in 1960 Additions of new large scale indusshytrial loads could cause the incremental per capita usage rate to equal
or exceed the historical However it appears that a feasonable foreshy
cast of total electrical energy consumption can be related to the average per capita rate projection The high per capita rate
should provide upper boundary values and together with the average rate should define the range of total future demands to be used in
Power System Planning
The per capita usage and income relationship can vary widely as difshyferent countries may obtain the same income level with widely difshy
fering structures of production The average electrical input to agriculture industry and service sectors changes according to the
composition of each sector in terms of its basic activities the
rate of industrialization and urbanization and the improvement of
income distribution patterns
1-48
A comparison of total electrical energy generation and GrossDomestic Product growth rates for Nicaragua with those prevailshying in Latin America can be made for selected years in historical eriod Values projected for Nicaragua to 1988 are based on themost probable GDP and average per capita kwh growth rates
TABLE 121
TOTAL ENERGY GENERATED PER DOLLAR OF GDP
All Year Latin America Nicaragua
Kwh per dollar of GDP (1960 Price Level)Generated Sold Generated
1950 055 1960 084 023 027 1962 090 027 031 1964 100 031 036 1967 104 041 048 1974 NA 077 091 1978 shy 100 117 1983 shy 118 139 1988 shy 144 169
Average Annual Rate of Growth
1950-1960 48 1960-1974 shy 90 91 1960-1967 31 86 85 1967-1974 shy 94 961974-1988 shy 46 45
Economic Bulletin for Latin America op cit page 53 Assuming sold at 85 of generated Econ Bulletin page 58 Table 56
Considering the rate of electrification of the economy defined asthe difference between the growth rates of electric energy generationand gross domestic product the average annual rate for Latin America was 38 percent during the 1958-1967 period versus 92 percent for Nicaragua (1960-1967) In 1967-1974 the rate increased to 99 percentas the GDP growth rate had a proportionately greater drop than that of electric power generation The projected most probable GDP andaverage per capita combination implies an electrification rate of
1-49
48 percent and an average annual growth rate of total electric energy soldgenerated of 10 to 11 percent during the 1974-1988 period
The forecast growth rate of 109 percent for total energy sales resulting from the micro-analysis of Section 12 can then be intershypreted as an optimistic average in comparison to the experience of other Latin American countries
134 COMPARISON OF PROJECTIONS WITH FORECAST LOAD GROWTH
The selection of the definitive load forecast for the service area of the interconnected system was made following a comparison of the results of detailed load studies with projected growth rates and levels of energy consumption obtained from correlations between
-economic growth parameters and energy consumption at the macro level
The micro-analysis of the growth trends relating to sectoral energy sales within load zones of the service area resulted in the sunmashytion of energy sales forecasts contained on Appendix Sheet IB52 The correlation of total and sectoral energy consumption with socioshyeconomic parameters described in Section 132 resulted in the followshying range of growth rates for high average and low projections from the actual recorded 1974 energy sales level These are compared with the growth rates for sectoral and total energy sales forecasts over the same period to 1988
SISTEMA INTERCONECTADO NACIONAL
SUMMARY OF PROJECTED AND FORECAST GROWTH RATES
1 Total Energy Sales within Interconnected System Service Area 1974-1988
High Projection 150 Average Compound Growth Rate Low Projection 64 Average Projection 108 Energy Forecast 109
2 Sectoral Energy Sales within Interconnected System Service Area 1974-1988
A Residential Sales
High Projection 85 Average Compound Growth Rate Average Projection 65 of i i Energy Forecast 75
1-50
B Commercial Sales
High Projection 76 Average Compound Growth Rate Average Projection 57 Energy Forecast 66 it
C Industrial Sales
High Projection 160 Average Compound Growth Rate Average Projection 110 it Energy Forecast 118 It
D Government Public Lighting and Pumping Sales
High Projection 107 Average Compound Growth Rate Average Projection 86 t it Energy Forecast 96
E Wholesale and Irrigation Sales
High Projection 194 Average Compound Growth Rate Average Projection 147 i it Energy Forecast 131 It
It may be observed that the total energy forecast is very close to the average projection of total sales which in turn is based on a correshylation between the most probable growth of GDP per capita and energyconsumption per capita This is clearly shown in Figure 17 in that the forecast curve of total energy sales is almost superimposed on the average projection These results confirm the basis for the deshyfinitive load forecast for the interconnected system in that a reshylationship is established between energy consumption and potential economic growth resulting from the assumed attainment of most proshybable per capita GDP and energy consumption growth rates
Within the forecast of total energy sales the sectoral energy divishysion aligns reasonably within the average to high projection rangewith the exception of the combination of irrigation and wholesale energy which has a forecast growth rate below the average projectionSince the irrigation component is both large in magnitude and depends on season requirements a deviation is understandable and thereforethe forecast may be interpreted as a conservative estimate of future irrigation requirements
The comparison of projected and forecast load growth indicates that with due allowance for sectoral deviations the average energy conshysumption trend is maintained by a balanced growth of sectoral energy sales
1-51
14 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
The intent of this study of load growth within the service area of the interconnected system has been achieved in that the definitive load forecast is directly relatable to projections of short-term planned growth of the national economy in terms of per capita GDP This has been achieved by the correlation of socio-economic parashymeters with sectoral and total energy consumption using estimating equations derived from correlation analysis These were compared with corresponding aggregate system forecasts obtained from the sunmmation of detailed energy forecasts for individual load zones forming the service area of the interconnected system A very close parallel was observed with the most probable forecast of toshytal energy aligned with the average projection which in turn was based on the most probable rise of GDP
An analysis was made in Section 11 of the historical growth of population gross domestic product and its component sectors The patterns of growth over the historical period 1960-1974 were found to exhibit three distinct sets of growth rates which are summarized as follows
TOTAL POPULATION TOTAL GDP GDP PER CAPITA
1960-1967 28 87 58 1967-1974 30 44 15 1960-1974 28 66 36
These three growth ptt3rns characterize the high low and average rates of growth used as a basis for establishing a range of projecshytions for GDP and GDP per capita over the period 1974-1988 In addishytion the most probable rate of growth of GDP was defined for projecshytion purposes over two distinct sub-periods 66 percent from 1974 to 1978 decreasing to 55 percent for the remainder of the projection to 1988 This most probable rate of increase for GDP corresponds to the expected economic growth arising from the implementation of curshyrent plans for the national economy on the assumption that goals will be realized to enable sustained growth to proceed over the deshyvelopment period 1978-88
Sectoral projections of GDP were also completed to examine the strucshytural components in terms of the contribution of each to overall economic growth Thus the economic basis was laid for establishing the validity of the load forecast for the service area of the intershyconnected system by the correlation of economic growth with energy consumption
The detailed forecast of load growth within the interconnected system service area is presented in Section 12 with full description of the methodology used for trend analysis of sectoral energy consumption
1-52
short-range projection to 1978 and the preparation of long-rangeforecasts for component load zones and the entire service area The extent of the service area and its zonal divisions are given on Figure 12 The service area is comprised of 24 load zonesof which 17 are presently supplied from the interconnected sysshytem with two existing zones scheduled for connection during1975 The remaining five zones are areas scheduled for rural electrification by ENALUF two to be completed by 1978 and three more by 1981
The results of the forecast are summarized below in terms of secshytoral and total energy consumption growth rates over the period1974-1988 with average rates given for the two component economic sub-periods
AVERAGE COMPOUND GROWTH RATE - 1974-1988 1974-1978 1978-1988
Retail Energy Sales Residential 74 99 64 Commercial 66 91 55 Industrial 118 L55 104 Governmen 68 109 52 Public Lighting 66 82 59 Irrigation 103 129 92 Pumping 120 147 111
Total 102 132 90Wholesale Energy Sales 144 176 131Total Energy Sales 109 139 97
The above tabulation clearly indicates the differential between the growth rates pertinent to the short-range economic recovery periodduring the present 5-year plan and the sustained growth during the longer-range development period 1978-88
The corresponding rates of growth for system peak demand are
1974 - 1988 112 1974 - 1978 143 1978 - 1988 100
These rates of growth will cause system peak demand to reach a level of five times the base-year (1974) load at the end of year 1990
The correlation of economic growth with energy consumption is presenshyted in Section 13 with a comparison of forecasts made for energysales and corresponding projected ranges of energy consumption at the system level Specific correlations were made for total energy and sectoral components with selected socio-economic parameters to deshyrive estimating equations for calculation of projected energy conshysumption levels and growth rates On comparison of the forecast and
1-53
projected levels of energy sales it was apparent that the most probable forecast corresponded very closely with the average proshyjection of energy sales based on the most probable growth of GDP per capita
It was concluded that this exceedingly close parallel between the total energy sales forecast and levels of energy consumption correlated directly with economic growth provides a sound basis for the load forecast for the interconnected system service area A further comparison with the growth experience of selected counLries with levels of development similar to Nicaragua inshycluding countries of Central and South America confirmed that the forecast growth of energy consumption corresponds to an optishymistic average in comparison with the experience of other Latin American countries
ThusO IECO recommends the probable load forecast shown graphically on Figure 13 and tabulated in summary form in Table 116 for generashytion and transmission system planning for Phase II of this study This forecast represents the summation at the system level of deshytailed zonal forecasts of demand and energy consumption within the service area of the interconnected system These load zone forecasts are given in Appendix IB Sheets IB28 through IB51 with the sumshymary for the entire interconaected system service area given on Sheet IB52
1-54
A PENDICE I - A
TABLAS Y FIGURAS
RELACIONADAS A LA ECONOMIA NACIONAL
APPENDIX I- A
TABLES AND FIGURES
RELATING TO NATIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS
APPENDIX IA
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE IA1 URBAN POPULATION AS OF JUNE 30TH BY REGIONS AND DEPARTMENTS PERIOD 1974-1980
TABLE IA2 RURAL POPULATION AS OF JUNE 30TH BY REGIONS AND DEPARTMENTS PERIOD 1974-1980
TABLE IA3 EMPLOYMENT SITUATION OF THE ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION BY TYPE OF ACTIVITY 1971-73
TABLE IA4 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND SECTORAL COMPONENTS PERIOD 1960-1972 TABLE IA5 AGRICULTURAL VALUE ADDED PERIOD 1960-1972 TABLE IA6 LIVESTOCK VALUE ADDED PERIOD 1960-1972 TABLE IA7 CONSTRUCTION VALUE ADDED PERIOD 1960-1972 TABLE IA8 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES VALUE ADDED PERIOD 1960-1972 TABLE IA9 ACCOUNT OF THE REST OF THE WORLD PERIOD 1960-1972 TABLE IA1O EXPORTS OF GOODS FOB PERIOD 1960-1972 TABLE IA11 IMPORTATION OF GOODS CIF PERIOD 1960-1972 TABLE IA12 LATIN AMERICA TREND OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CONSTANT 1971
PRICES PER CAPITA GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CONSTANT 1971 PRICES ABLE IA13 ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATES OF SECTORAL CONTRIBUTION TO GDP
TABLE IA14 ALTERNATIVE MEASURESESTIMATES OF NICARAGUAS RESOURSE GAPNET CAPITAL INFLOW AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP-HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED
TABLE IA15 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR AND TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA 1960-1974 AND PROJECTED 1975-1988 ASSUMING AN AVERAGE GROWTH RATE
TABLE IA16 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Bk SECTOR 1960-1974 AND PROJECTED 1975-1988 ASSUMING AN AVERAGE GROWTH RATE
TABLE IA17 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR AND TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA 1960-1974 AND PROJECTED 195-1988 ASSUMING A HIGH GROWTH RATE
TABLE IA18 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR 1960-1974 AND PROJECTED 1975-1988 ASSUMING A HIGH GROWTH RATE
TABLE IA19 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR AND TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA 1960-1974 AND PROJECTED 1975-1988 ASSUMING A LOW GROWTH RATE
TABLE IA20 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR 1960-1974 AND PROJECTED 1975-1988 ASSUMING A LOW GROWTH RATE
TABLE IA21 AVERAGE PERCENTAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES IN THE PRIMARY SECONDARY AND OTHER SERVICE SUB-SECTORS 1960-1974 AND PROJECTED TO 1988
TABLE IA22 AREAS UNDER CULTIVATION FOR PRINCIPAL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS TABLE IA23 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY OF NICARAGUA TABLE IA24 SEASONAL AND OTHER INDUSTRIAL INSTALLATIONS
FIGURE IA1 FIGURE IA2 FIGURE IA3 FIGURE IA4 FIGURE IA5 FIGURE IA6
FIGURE IA
FIGURE IA8
FIGURE IA 9 FIGURE IA 10
FIGURE IA11
FIGURE IA12
APPENDIX IA
LIST OF FIGURES
TOTAL URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION 1960-1990 PRIMARY SECTOR VALUE ADDED AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP SECONDARY SECTOR VALUE ADDED AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP UTILITY (SERVICE) SECTOR VALUE ADDED AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP OTHER SERVICE SECTOR VALUE ADDED AS ERCENTAGE OF GDP AVERAGE PROJECTION OF TOTAL GDP - BASED ON 1960-74 AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF INCREASE HIGH PROJECTION OF TOTAL GDP - BASED ON 1960-67 AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF INCREASE LOW PROJECTION OF TOTAL GDP - BASED ON 1967-74 AVERAGE-ANNUAL RATE OF INCREASE PRIMARY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS - AREAS UNDER CULTIVATION 1972-79 PRINCIPAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS - NUMBER AND LOCATION OF
ESTABLISHMENTS SEASONAL AND OTHER INDUSTRIES - NUMBER AND LOCATION OF
ESTABLISHMENTS LOCATION OF PRINCIPAL TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES
APPENDTX IA
T A B L A S
TENDENCIAS CONCEPR4NENTES A LA ECONOMIA NACIONAL
T A B L E S
RELATING TO NATIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS
TABLA IA1 - TABLE IA1
R-EPU3LICA DE NICARAGUA OFICINA EJECUTIVA DE ENCUESTAS Y CENSOS Executive Office Of Surveys And Census
POBLACION URBANA POR ZONAS Y DEPARTANENTOS DESDE 30 DE JUNIO PERIODO 1974-1980 Urban Population as cf June 30th by Regions and Departments Period 1974-1980
ZONA Y DEPARIAMENTO 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 __ReionAnd Department
T REPUBLIC URBAN 1003284 1054413 11022705 1153205 1211022 1271258 1343958
ZONA DEL PACIFICO
Pacific Region
782144 817908 855370 396560 942125 989480 1045287-
Chinandega
Leon
Managua
Masaya
Granada Carazo
Rivas
89258
98374
393801
65587
60951 42 425 31748
93316
102910
411854
68537
63792 44285
33214
97590
107624
430717
71676
66714 46314
34735
101263
111675
455923
74374
69225 48057
36043
106096
117005
40457
77924
72529 50331
37763
111178
122610
505697
81657
76003 52763
39572
117844
129962
532498
86552
80560 55926
41945
ZONA NORTE Y CENTRAL 177791 185893 194406 201723 211353 221478 234755 Central-North Region
Chontales
Boaco Matagalpa
Jinotega
Esteli
Madriz Nueva Segovia
24475
18743 47214
16539
36002
13520 21298
25622
19612 49347
17292
37643
14129 22248
26795
20510 51607
18084
39367
14776 23267
27804
21282 53549
18765
40848
15332 24143
29131
22293 56103
19662 42798
16064 25295
30527
23366 58793
20603
44848
16834 26507
32357
24767 62318
21837
47537
17843 28096
ZONA DEL ATLANTICO
Atlantic Region
48349 50612 52929 54922 57544 60300 63916
Rio San Juan
Zelaya 6831
41518 7170
43442 7493
45431 7781
47141 8152
49392 3542
51758 9055
54861
TABLA IA2-TABLE IA2
REPUBLICA DE NICAG1UA OFICINA EJECUTIVA DE ENCUESTAS Y CENSOS Executive Office Of Surveys knd Census
POPLACION RURAL POR ZONAS Y DEPARTAMNTOS DESDE 30 DE JUNIO PERIODO 1974-1980
Rural Population as of June 30th by Regions and Departments PERIOD 1974-1980
ZONA YLonA DEPATAMENTOY Department Region And Department
1974 -_
1975 1976 1977 --- -shy
1978 1979 __--__
1930
THE REPU3LIC - RURAL 1075379 1100970 1129841 1159266 1184235 1209338 1226652
ZONA DEL PACIFICO 463294 470149 478797 485372 489280 493314 490911 Pacific Region Chinandega 87855 89892 92176 95297 97501 99729 100658 Leon 93368 95385 97770 101072 103358 105665 106534 Aanagua 116913 116430 116480 110864 106621 102456 97560 Masaya 42789 43543 44416 45874 46629 47368 47120 Granada 26190 2- 303 26606 27436 27593 27713 26891 Ca-azo 43331 44301 45443 45986 48094 49216 49726 Rivas 52877 54295 5590-5 57843 59484 61167 62422
ZONA NORTE Y CENTRAL 477184 491544 507236 525037 541477 558376 573186 Central-North Region
Choncales 53071 54558 56259 58220 59973 61775 63269 Boa o 55186 55904 58745 60811 62734 64718 66490 Matagalpa 135720 139896 144411 149486 154199 159060 163382 Jinotega 83815 86597 89524 92696 95789 98993 102066 Esteli 51611 52883 54400 56276 57803 59364 60428 Madriz 44836 46222 47735 49417 51003 52641 54134 Nueva Segovia 52945 54484 56212 58181 59976 61825 63417
ZONA DEL ATLANTICO 134901 139277 143758 148807 153478 158298 162555 Atlantic Region
Rio San Jn 15979 16539 17060 17656 18196 18752 19222 Zelaya 118922 122738 126698 131151 135282 139546 143333
TABLA IA3 - TABLE IA3 REPUBLICA DE NICARAGUA
OFICINA EJECLTIVA DE ENCUESTAS Y CENSOS Executive Office of Surveys and Census
SITUATION DE EMPLEO POR LA POBLACION ECONOMICAMENTE ACTIVA POR TIPO DE ACTIVLDAD 1971-1973 Employment Situation Of The Economically Active Population By Type Of Activity 1971-1973
TIPO DE ACTIVIDAD Tvoe of Activity
SAP Total
EXPLEADOS Em loved
1971
DESOCUPADOS nemploved
DESOGUPADOS V Unemplqved
EAP Total
EMPLEADOS Emploved
1972 DESOCUPADOS Unem ploved
DESOCPADOS Unemployed
EAP Type
EMPLEADOS Employed
DESOCUPADOS Unemployed
1973
7 DESOCUPADOS 7 Unemployed
EPA - Total 564312 543811 20501 363 585241 549879 35362 604 598477 543936 54541 911 AGRICCASERIA Y PESCA
AgricHunting amp Fishing
295643 286419 9224 312 98471 277516 20955 702 301641 268006 33635 1115
MINAS Y CANTERAS
Mines and Quarries
3632 3331 301 828 3623 3426 197 543 3626 3397 229 631
INDUSTRIA - Industry 62496 60352 2144 343 67717 65009 2708 400 58726 53785 4941 841 ELEC GAS Y AGUA
Elec Gas amp Water
3018 2933 85 282 3390 3229 161 475 3813 3581 232 608
CONSTRUCCION-Construction 20254 17014 3240 1600 20085 17274 2811 1400 24026 20274 3752 1562 CO=RCIO REST Y HOTELES
C merce Rest amp Hotels
47376 44391 2985 630 49556 44402 5154 1040 51864 44853 7011 1352
TRANSPORTE ALACEN Y
COYL7NICACIONES
17322 16296 1026 592 18182 16856 1326 729 19098 17005 2093 1096
TranspStorage amp Comm
FINANZA - Finance 5890 5660 230 390 7230 6662 568 786 8880 8164 716 806 COMUaIDAD Y SERV SOc
Con amp Social ServiLc
07 98908 999 100 105098 104048 1050 100 110594 109322 1272 115
OTROS NO IDENTIFICADOS
Others Not Elsewhere Iden
774 8507 267 304 11889 11457 432 363 16209 15549 660 407
Proyecciones basados en censo de 1971 encuesta de situacion de empleo en 1973 y movimiento afiliado al INSSProjections based on the 1971 census survey of the employment situation in 1973 and affiliated movement at INSS
TABLA IA4 - TABLE IA4
PERIOD 1960-1972 PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO Y COMPONENTES SECTORALES Gross Domestic Product and Sectoral Components
CATEGORIAS
C-teGORIes 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965
MILLONES DE CORDOBAS ACTUALES Millions of Chrrent Cordobas
PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO 23520 25307 27922 30898 36220 40100 Gross Domestic Product
PRLMARIO - Primary Agricultura - Agriculture
5571 3578
6070 4051
6581 4484
7422 5211
9202 6902
9958 7447
Ganado - Livestock Silvicultura - Forestry
1650 215
175o4 210
1818 193
197o4 151
2041 166
2249 158
Caseria y Pesca -Hunting amp Fishing 28 45 86 86 93 114
SECUNDARIO - Secondary 4643 5101 6029 6870 8022 8796 Industria - Industry 3765 4159 4771 5528 6375 7000 Construccion-Construction 579 608 768 867 1160 1304 Mineria - Mining 299 334 490 475 487 492
IERCIARIO - Tertiary 13306 14136 15312 16606 18996 21336 Comercio - Comnerce 5228 5562 6142 6708 7767 8362 Gobierno - Government 1602 1684 1829 1916 2136 2529 Transport y Comunicaciones Finanza - Finance
1329 354
1414 454
1561 523
1706 562
1974 701
2126 1013
Elec y Agua - Eiec amp Water 309 340 354 412 492 618 Vivienda - Housing 2453 2493 2511 2492 2647 2676 Otros - Other 2031 2189 2392 2810 3279 4012
TABLA IA4 - (CONTINUACION) Table IA4 - (Continued)
PRODUCTO INTERNO BRIUfO Y COMPONENTES SECTORALES Gross Domestic Product and Sectoral Components
CATEGORIAS Categories 1966 1967 1968 1959 1970 1971 1972
MILLO1NES DE CORDOBA3 ACTUALES Millions of Current Cordobas
PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO 42940 46453 49098 53091 59125 63432 69294 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
PRIARIO - Primary Agricultura - Agriculture Ganado - Livestock Silvicultura -Forestry
9927 6934 2625 190
11280 7976 2916 181
11297 7275 3568 190
12843 8168 4155 213
14417 9140 4740 239
15782 9712 5419 273
17645 10256
6521 300
Caseria y Pesca - Hunting amp Fishing 178 207 264 307 298 378 568
SECUNDARIO - Secondary Industria - Industry
9703 7388
10245 8057
10769 3757
1816 9635
13195 KUIi0M
14239 12076
15429 13141
Cons truccion-Cons truction 1785 1638 1550 1784 1751 1882 2105 Yineria - Mining 530 550 462 397 336 281 183
TERCIARIO- Tertiary 23310 24928 27032 28432 31513 33411 36220 Comnercio- Commerce 3886 9348 10029 10479 11952 12661 14031 Gobierno - Government 2894 3440 3614 3990 4074 4199 4283 Transport y Comanicaciones 2259 2376 2550 2664 3038 3219 3567 Finanza - Finance 1198 1229 1298 1155 1436 1636 1799 Elec y Agua - Elec amp Water Vivienda - Housing
647 2808
800 2918
909 3105
1048 3230
1211 3696
1266 3832
1371 4105
Otros - Other 4618 4817 5527 5956 6106 6598 7064
Origen Cuentas Nazionales de Nicaragua Banco Central Source National Accounts of Nicaragua Central Baik
TABLA IA5 - TABLE IA5
VALOR DE AGRICULTURA ARADIDO PERIODO 1960-1972
Agriculture Value Added Period 1960-1972
PRODUCTOS 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 Products
MILLONES DE CORDOBAS ACTUALES Millions of CurrentCordobas
Ajonjoli - Sesame 112 108 68 51 66 47
AlgodonI - Cotton I 353 476 906 1247 2004 2659
Arroz - Rice 225 265 246 292 399 453
Caft - Coffee 1043 1014 955 1048 1583 1258
Cafta de Azucar - Sugar Cane 253 268 293 296 358 340
Frijol - Beans 326 480 434 489 549 596
Maiz - Corn 334 339 338 395 458 600
Sorgo - Sorghum 133 130 157 166 194 195
Platano - Plantain 71 54 71 126 128 126
Tabaco - Tobacco 01 03 05 05 13 18
Otros - Others 827 924 1011 1096 1150 1155
TOTAL 3678 4061 4484 5211 6902 7447
1 Incluye Semilla
Includes Seed
TABLA IA5 (CONTINUACION) Table IA5 (Continued)
VALOR DE AGRICULTURA ARADIDO PERIODO 1960-1972 Agriculture Value Added Period 1960-1972
PRODUCTOSProducts 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 19722
MILLONES DE CORDOBAS ACTUALES Millions of Current Cordobas
Ajonjoli - Sesame
Algodon1 - Cottonl
25
1965
54
2089
101
1556
84
1702
66
972
60
1829
51
3091
Arroz - Rice 502 525 489 711 852 756 679
Cafamp - Coffee 1293 1409 1286 1418 2262 1989 2022
Cafta de Azucar - Sugar Cane 353 436 469 549 602 666 693
Frijol - Beans 614 649 649 694 973 850 665
Maiz - Corn 608 851 756 940 1357 1397 728
Sorgo - Sorghum 197 193 167 221 267 273 254
Platano -Pkantain 128 409 365 284 138 103 257
Tabaco - Tbacco 24 96 123 139 167 237 256
Otros - Others 1225 1265 1314 1426 1484 1552 1560
TOTAL 6934 7976 7275 8168 9140 9712 10256
1 Incluye Semilla - Includes Seed
2 Preliminary Data Origen Source
Cuentas Nacionales de Nicaragua Banco Central National Accounts of Nicaragua Central Bank
TABLA IA6 - TABLE IA6
VALOR DE GANADO ARADIDO PERIODO 1960-1972
Livestock Value Added Period 1960-1972
1962 1963 1964 1965
MILLONES DE CORDOBAS ACTUALES Millions of Current Cordobas
1394 142 281 01
524 157 292 01
1602 167 271 01
1734 256 258 01
1813 1974 2041 2249
1968 1969 1970 1971 1972
MILLONES DE CORDOBAS ACTUALES Millions of Current Cordobas
2847 3339 3832
334 34 429 386 461 478 01 01 01
4521
454 443 01
5246
594 680 01
3568 4155 4740 5419 6521
CATEGORIAS Categories
Ganadp - Cattle Ceris-fogs AbejasMiel - BeesHoney Cordero - Mutton
Valor Afadido -Value Added
CATEGORIAS
Categorires_____________
Ganado - Cattle
Cerdos - Hogs AbejasMiel- BeesHoney Cordero - Mutton
Valor Aftadido - Value Added
1960 1961
1199 192 258 01
1650
1338 156 259 01
1754
1966 1967
2028
332 264 01
2625
2353
289 273 01
2916
TABLA IA7 - TABLE IA7
VALOR DE CONSTRUCCION ARADIDO PERIODO 1960-1972 Construction Volue Added Period 1960-1972
CATEGORIAS Categories 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965
MILLONES DE CORDOBAS ACTUALES Millions of Current Cordobas
TOTAL 579 608 768 867 1160 1304
CONSTRUCCION - PRIVADO 316 320 316 345 497 560 Constru-ction - Private
Residencial - Residential 217 227 178 234 308 377 Comercial - Commercial 22 20 27 34 47 53 Industrial 16 13 16 24 59 45 Agricultura - Agricultural 30 29 31 36 58 64 Otros - Others 31 31 64 17 25 21
CONSTRUCCION - PUBLICO 263 288 452 522 663 744 Construction - Pblic
Edificios - Buildings 52 56 68 205 174 94 Carreteras y Otras Obras Publicas 189 207 276 223 354 476 Highways amp Other Public Works Otro - Other 22 25 108 94 135 174
Origen Cuentas Nacionales de Nicaragua Banco Central Source National Accounts of Nicaragua Central Bank
TABLA IA7 (CONTINUACION)
Table IA7 (Continued)
VALOR DE CONSTRUCCION ARADIDO PERIODO 1960-1972 Construction Value Added Period 1960-1972
CATEGORIASCategories 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972
MILLeNES DE CORDOBAS ACTUALES Millions of Current Cordobas
TOTAL 1785 1638 1550 1784 1751 1882 2105
CONSTRUCCION - PRIVADO 782 720 874 966 678 665 671 Construction - Private Residencial - Residential 470 465 502 563 436 354 390 Comercial - Commercial 110 48 69 31 37 31 63 Industrial 61 85 100 110 41 51 10 Agricultura - Agricultural 67 68 74 78 98 182 123 Otro - Other 74 54 129 184 66 47 85
CONSTRUCCION - PUBLICO 1003 918 676 818 1073 1217 1434 Construction - Public
Edificios - Buildings 283 225 203 219 124 130 154 Carreteras y Otras Obras Publicas 409 371 191 286 328 344 406 Highways amp Other Public Works Otro - Other 311 322 282 313 621 743 874
TABLA IA8 - TABLE IA8
VALOR ARADIDO DE INDUSTRIAS MANFACTURERAS PERIODO 1960-1972 Manufacturing industries Value Added Period 1960-1972
CATEGORIAS 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965Categories
MILLONES DE CORDOBAS ACTUALES Millions of Current Cordobas
Alimento - Food 1867 2059 2280 2448 2646 2910Bebidas - Beverages 306 360 412 501 587 701Tabaco - Tobacco 358 343 378 407 512 513Textiles 279 324 4-15 560 692 783Almacen de Ropa - Dress Shops 116 120 136 163 221 207Productos de Cuero - Leather Products 53 63 67 79 82 77Fajas de Hule - Rub-ber Belts 85 101 113 134 143 128Madera - Wood 181 162 168 175 189 188Muebles de Metal - Metal Furniture 38 47 60 84 95 80Productos de Papel - Paper Products 16 18 26 34 48 49InpresosEditoriales-PrintsEditorials 83 102 130 127 145 157Productos Quimicos - Chem Products 150 178 244 297 343 373Petroleo - Petroleum - - - 60 81 76Goma Elastica-- Gum Elastic 13 12 20 19 19 20Productos Plasticos - Plastic Products - 04 07 15 35 62Productos de Arcilla y Teja-Clay amp Tile Prod - - - - - -Productos de Vidrio - Glasswares Products 01 01 01 01 01 02Minas No-Metalicas-NonMeillic Mines 111 127 147 174 187 216Industria Metal Basico-Basic Metal Indust 14 15 15 16 16 17Productos Metalicos - Metal Products 59 83 103 163 245Equipo de Construccion-Constr Equipment 324
06 06 07 07 09Constr MtlTransp-ConstrTransp Matl 16
03 03 05 07 08 11Equipo ProfCientifico-ProfScienEquip - - - - - 03Industrias Variadas-Diversified Indust 26 31 37 57 71 87
TOTAL 3765 4159 4771 5528 6375 7000
Origen Cuentas Nacionales de Nicaragua Banco Central Source National Accounts of Nicaragua Central Bank
TABLA IA8 (CONTINUADA) Table IA8 bull (Continued)
VALOR ARADIDO DE INDUSTRIAS MAKNUFACTURERAS PERIODO 1960-1972 Manufacturing Industries Value Added Period 1960-1972
CATEGORIAS Categories 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972
MILLONES DE CORDOBAS ACTUALES Millions of Current Cordobas
Alimento - Food 28V5 3201 3192 3501 4223 4833 5085Bebidas - Beverages 760 78o6 972 930 L041 1054 1125Tabaco - Tobacco 564 561 594 619 644 652 640Textiles 708 741 665 685 748 787 927Almacen de Ropa - Dress Shops 222 254 277 300 320 315 333Productos de Cuero - Leather Products 82 0 L0A 126 134 177 199Fajas de Hule - Rubber Belts 142 170 229 295 352 468 512Madera - Wood 241 267 288 327 381 415 449Muebles de Metal -Metal Furniture 96 107 146 151 146 140 138Productos de Paper - Paper Products 56 79 99 101 112 107 129ImpresosEditoriales-PrintsEditorials 211 193 239 236 251 266 329Productos Quimicos - Chem Products 413 450 538 678 875 847 994Petrole - Petroleum 112 178 199 332 340 397 430Goma Elastica - G-n Elastic 28 51 72 69 59 58 62Producros Plasticos - Plastic Products 102 99 132 188 230 28 234Productos de Arcilla y Teja-Clay amp Tile Prod 01 22 28 41 66 48 57Productos de Vidrio - Glasswares Products 02 02 03 03 04 04 05Minas No-Metalicas-Non-Metallic Mines 263 272 312 358 395 417 458industria Metal 3asico-Basic Metal Indust 17 18 18 29 38 30 38Productos Metalicos - Metal Products 338 304 351 355 431 459 6137quipo de Const-uccion-Constr Equipment 29 68 138 159 171 190 214Constr MatlTransp-ConstrTranspMatl 15 18 23 19 25 30Eq-ipv ProfCieItifico-ProiScienEquip 20
04 05 09 11 15 16 25Industrias Variadas-Diversifiei Indust 97 121 125 122 127 121 124
TOTAL 7388 8057 8757 9635 11108 12076 13141
TABLA IA9 - TABLE IA9
CUENTA DEL RESTO DEL MNDO PERIODO 1960-1972 Account of the Rest of the WorldPeriod 1960-1972
CUENTA CORRIENTE 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965Current Account
MILLONES DE CORDOBAS ACTUALES
Millions of Clirrent Cordobas
INGRESOS - Revenues
Bienes y Servicios Exportados no atribuibles a Produccio
Exported Goods amp Services not Attributable
5285 5649 7182 8603 10017 11620
to Production Ingreso Neto de Produccion
Net Income From Production Cuenta Corriente por Cobrar
Current Account Receivable
- 126
210
- 133
237
- 196
322
- 140
322
- 231
427
- 770
490
Entradas Corcientes
Current Entries 5369 5803 7338 8785 10213 11340
DESEIBOLSOS - Expenditures
Bienes y Servicios Importados no atribuishybles a Produccion
Imported Goods amp Services Not Attributable
5887 6020 7910 9086 10738 12352
to Production Traspasos Corrientes llevados a cabo Current Tranfer Carried ForwardExceso Natural en Cuenta Corciente
-
- 518
14
- 231
77
- 679 -
35
336 -
49
574 -
35
1547 Utilizacion de Ingreso Corriente 5369 5803 7308 8785 10213 11340 Current Income Utilization
TABLA IA
Table IA9
(CONTINUADA)
(Continued)
CUENTA DEL RESTO DEL MUNDO PERIODO 1960-1972 Account of the Rest of the WorldPeriod 1960-1972
CUENTA CORRENT1 Current Account 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972
MILLONES DE CORDOBAS ACTUALES Millions of Current Cordobas
INGRESoS --Revenues
Bienes y Servicios Exportados no atribuibles a Produccion
Exported Goods amp Services not Attributable To Production
Ingreso Neto de Produccion
Net Income From ProductionCuenta Corriente por Cobrar
Current Account Recivable Entradas Corcientes
Current Entries
11515
- 95deg2
532
1109O5
12173
- 1001
448
11620
12999
- 1561
490
1o1928
1276o8
- 1561
353
11760
1453o2
- 1764
532
13300
15218
- 2031
490
13657
19649
- 2660
420
17409
DES-4BOLSOS- Expenditures
Bienes y Servicios Importados no atribuishybles a Produccion
Imported Goods amp Servizes NoL Attributable to Production
Traspasos corrientes ilevados a Cabo
Current Tranfer Carried ForwardExceso Natural en Cuenta Ccuriente
Utilizacion de Ingreso Corriente
Current Income Utilizacion
14490
42
- 3437
11095
16121
42
- 4543
11620
14805
4deg9
- 2926
11928
14231
98
- 2569
11760
15863
112
- 2681
13300
16513
140
- 2996
13657
17563
140
- 294
17409
TABLA IA10 - TABLE IA10
EXPORTACIONES DE BIENES FOB PERIODO 1960-1972 Exports of Goods FOB - Period 1960-1972
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965
MILLONES DE CORDOBAS ACTUALES
Millions of Current Cordobas
Exportacion Total FOB - Total Exports FOB 4400 4785 6312 7474 8763 10426
Productos de Agricultura - Agricultural Prod 2969 3077 4054 4866 6124 7601 Ajonjoli - Sesame 178 166 140 157 159 150 Algodon - Cotton 1028 1284 219-1 2785 3604 4629 Platanos - Plantain 10 - 37 97 150 55 Caf6 - Coffee 1345 1216 1080 1228 1477 1845 Semilla de Algodon - Cottonseed 155 180 323 364 465 608 Tabaco - Tobacco - - - - - -Otro - Other 253 231 283 235 269 314
Productos Manufacturados - Manufactured Prod 804 948 1440 1815 1820 1993 Aceite de Algodon - Cottonseed Oil shy - - - 07 23 Azucar - Sugar 240 268 313 422 398 386 Came Fresca de Vaca-Fresh Meat (Beef) 208 283 420 590 527 468 Langosta y Camaron - Lobster amp Shrimp - - 111 112 119 149 Madera Panel - Plywood 08 78 09 11 14 21 Madera Curada - Treated Wood 216 161 155 139 125 115 Productos de Leche - Milk Products 12 05 10 14 11 05 Frod Quimicos -Chemical Products - - 06 26 08 144 Afrecho - Cottonseed Cake 13 09 - 25 44 56 Otro - Other 107 144 416 476 567 626
Productos Minerales - Mineral Products 628 760 818 793 819 832
TABLA IA10 (CONTINUADA) Table IAlO (Continued)
EXPORTACIONES DE BIENES FOB PERIODO 1960-1972 Exports of Goods FOB - Period 1960-1972
1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972
MILLONES DE CORDOBAS ACTUALES Millions of Current Cordobas
Exportacion Total FOB 9954 10618 11361 11112 12504 13107 17506 Total Exports FOB
Productos de Agricultura 6685 6508 6702 5467 5483 5815 8072 Agricultural Products Ajonjoli - Sesame Algodon - Cotton Platanos - Piantain Caf6- - Coffee Semilla de Algodon - Cottonseed Tabaco - Tobacco Otro - Other
145 3977
62 1523 572 08
398
174 3919 232
1477 395 47 264
203 4177 219
1588 234 57
224
178 3180 153
1439 73
106 338
159 2397
18 2246
86 132 445
137 2892
-2048
56 163 519
125 4401 238
2301 113 251 643
Productos Manufacturados-Ma-ufactured Jzod Aceite de Algodon - Cottonseed Oil Azucar - Sugar Carne Fresca de vaca-Fresh Meat (Beef) Langosts y Camaron - Lobster amp Shrimp Madera Panel - Plywood Madera Curada - Treated Wood Productos de Leche - Milk Products Productos Quimicos - Chemical Products Afrecho - Cottonseed Cake Otro - Other
2370
104 150 715 268 36
145 04 170 115 663
3170
162 416 876 331 46 147 08
236 180 768
3866
226 382 1112 360 44 113 18
308 211
1092
4947
269 581 1459 473 65
130 37
484 241
1208
6378
272 688
1860 415 88
174 141 667 175
1898
6752
268 814
2007 404 97
258 181 772 246
1705
8939 281
1064 2679 612 140 333 219 931 353
2327 Productos Minerales - Mineral Products 899 940 793 698 643 540 495
TABLA IA1 - TABLE IA11
INPORTACION DE BIENES CIF PERIODO 1960-1972 Importation of Goods CIF Period 1960-1972
1960 1951 1952 1963 1964 1965
MiLLONES 0E CORDOBAS ACTUALES Millions of Clrrent Cordobas
BIENES DE CONSUMO - CONSUMER Durable
No Durable - Non Durable
GOODS 1923 45 2 1471
1907 431 1476
2201 524
1677
2621 670
1951
3064 801
2263
3547 1005
2342
CO3USTiBLES LU3RICA-NTES 259 279 326 437 501 468 COMBUSTIBLES amp LU3RICANTS
MATERIA PRIMA Y PRODUCDDS INTERfEDIOS 1411 1511 2187 2245 2305 3426 PRIME HATERIAL amp INTERPEDIATE PRODUCTS
Agricultura - Agricultural Industria - Industrial
nod
n od nd
nd nd
nd nd
nd nd
nd nd
nd
MLATERIAL DE CONSTRUCCION 333 299 459 471 770 754 CONSTRUCTION -ATERIAL
BIENES DE CAPITAL - CAPITAL GOODS Ag-ricultura - Agricultural Indistcia - Industrial
898 100 713
1015 111 824
1512 252
1169
1839 310
1394
2222 484
1539
2284 607
2055 Transportacion - Transpoztation 85 80 91 135 199 222
DIVERSOS - SUNDRY 195 194 191 141 229 141
TOTAL IMPORTES CIF 5019 5205 6876 7754 9591 11220 TOTAL IMPORTS CIF
Table IA11 (Continued)
IMPORTACION DE BIENES CIF PERIODO 1960-1972 Importation of Goods CIF Period 1960-1972
BIENES DF CONSRnO - CONSUMER GOODS Durable No durable - Non-Durable
COMBUSTIBLES Y LUBRICANTES
COMBUSTIBLES amp LU3RICATS
MATERIA PRIMA4 Y PRODUCTOS INTEBPEDIOS PRIME MATERIAL amp INTERMEDIATE PRODUCTS
Agricultura - Agricultural Industria - Industrial
MATERIAL DE CONSTRUCCION
CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL
BIENES DE CAPITAL - CAPITAL GOODS Agricultura - Agricultural Industria - Industrial Transportacion - Transportation
DIVERSOS - SUNDRY
TOTAL IMPORTES CIF
TOTAL IMPORTS CIF
1955
3S63 1520 2343
50o 5
4153
723 3430
688
3421 589
215o2 680
104
12734
1957
4127 1614 2513
543
5037
1710 3377
778
3505 509
2371 625
133
14273
1968 1959 1970
MILLONES DE CORDOBAS ACTUALES Millions of Current Cordobas
4057 1537 2520
643
4715
992 3723
686
2797 369
1900 528
27
12925
3462 1222 2240
667
4191
457 3734
834
3178 275 2460 443
57
1238o9
4047 1418 2629
79o9
4824
553 4271
996
3220 244
2361 615
26
13912
1971 1972
4513 4773 1546 1671 2967 3102
156 1098
4912 5540
569 926 4343 4614
929 650
3292 3212 255 383
2434 2154 603 675
28 21
14730 15294
iBLA 1A12 Table IA12
AMRICA LATINA Tendencia de Producto en Bruto Nacional en Precios Constantes de 1971
Total Producto Nacional en Brute (millones de dollar equivalen esN
LATIN AXERICA Trend of Gross National Productin Constant 1971 Prices
Total Gross National Product (millions of dollar equivalents) 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972
Argentina 5 pesos 13010 13490 12830 13530 14070 15060 1548C 16280 17270 I6140 17420 IS610Bolivia 12 pesos 18330 17890 19760 21600 21690 22220 23230 25060 26140 27150 28210590 582 618 631 667 711Brazil 5635 cruz 10710 11340 12310 12640 13910 14860 15320 16570 738 773 830 864 936 977 1033 1072 11401750 18850 20680 22810 24000 24380 25090 25780 27070 28390Chile 158 escudos 3150 3288 3481 3681 3694
030 33S30 37050 41230 455003657 3664 4095 4256 4210 4490 4766Col-mbia 4990 5230 5443 569421 pesos 2507 2592 2767 2933 3145 3271 300 3453 3532 3808
6040 6157 6340 6542 7140 7540 76903975 4166 4374 4498Costa Rica 665 cl 4785 4957 5220 5440 5760 6100 6480 6860 7360537 547 581 618 612 671 716 773 843OomRepubl I peso 488 923 974 1024 1072532 595 599 635 675 750 790 840 841 896 662Ecuador 2525 sucres 565 1011 1097 1139 1021 1145 1184 1196554 634 661 714 731 795 1340 1488 601 745E 754 838 856 915 927Salvador 25 col 973 1019 1092 1124 1176 1249 1323 1359 1479 1584 1695588 609 681 710 776 817 876 923 954Guatemala 1 quetzal 759 772 788 810 987 1016 1062 1110
825 549 928 979 1023 1073 1098Honduras 2 lem-piras 272 292 310 330 333 343 1144 1185 1297 1355 1416 1481 1540 1672 1748 1853 1955356 395 40C 2068421 444 447 463Nexico 125 pesos9990 10900 11260 476 482 520 563 589 641 65811780 12420 13340 14050 695 733 76515110 15750 16350 17600 18460 19290 20830 23260 24740 26440 28050 30290 32210 34410Nicaragua 7 cordobas 273 292 334 339 35660 38300382 395 402 440 438 447 454 488 538 573Panama I balboa 296 294 311 330 336 637 693 722 770 772 810 846 889356 375 415 422 454 488 545 na
Paraguay 126 guaranies 304 308 592 644 677 727 783 844 902304 320 328 349 357 396 403 980 1050 1142 1228399 397 421 445 452 471 503 510Peru 387 soles 2290 2600 2OO 2650 2910 540 566 588 621 652 6893060 3200 3230 3340 3450 3770 4080 4450Uruquay 370 pesos 4620 4940 5170 5470 5560 5600 57401791 1823 1840 1774 172 1787 6260 6720 71101837 1795 1774Verzuela 44 bol 1824 1843 1901 17992720 3050 3280 3530 389 4190 4530 5350 5820 6290 6810
730 240
1824 1941 2050 2039 2G25 87 8940 9350 9830 1021C 10830 11170 1162018 LA Reps-TOTAL 50072 53268 54811 57224 60813 64484 66929 71354 75057 76486 82177 87640 91175 94119 101321 106759 111573 116242 123709 132003 141415 150083 160260
Memorandum Item
CAZC R - Total 1959 2072 2218 2316 2412 2500 2633 2816 2892 3002 3121 3235 3448 3674 3862 4117 4358 4595 4882 5126 5384 5663LAFTAR - Total 47299 50370 51687 53979 57430 594860953 63171 67333 70933 7219 77672 82998 86124 88704 95643 100894 105287 109619 116729 124557 133493 141677 151339
P - Preliminar - Peliminar a Comunidad Econrmica Centroamericana Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras y Nicaragua
Central rerican Economic Communitv
b Asociacion Comercia Libre Latino Azericana Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Paraguay Peru Uruguay y VenezuelaLatin Anerican Free Trade Association
Origen Tasas de Crecimiento de Procto Nacional en Bruto v Dates ce Tendencia AID Mayo 1973
Source Gross National Product Growth Rates and Trend Data AD may 1 1973
TVBLA IA12 (CONTINUADO)
AMERICA LATINA Table IA12 (Continued)Producto Nacional en Bruto Por Capita en Precios Constantes de 1971
LATIN AXERICA (eqivalentes en dollares)
Per Capita Cross NatLional Product in Constant 1971 Prices
Argentina Bolivia Brazil
Chile Colombia Costa Rica26
Dominican Rep Ecuador
El Salvador
1950
761
201
520 221
229 175
1951
791
206
529 223
240 175
1952
718
217
548 231
259 185
1953
743
217
567 237
251 187
1954
758
231
556 267
256 196
1955
797
240
539 248
263 195
1956
802
240
527 244
282 195
1957
827
252
575 246
287 200
1958
860 167 263
583 244
295 199
(dollar equivalents)
1959 1960 1961
788 835 879 161 167 167 270 288 303
562 585 607 255 258 262
428 421
286 295 274 202 210 206
1962
853 173 315
624 266
433
312 209
1963
SZ1 lO 312
642 266
444
328 212
1964
894 183 312
655 274 27
425
331 219
1965
963 187 311
672 275 25 450
288 218
1966
953 197 318
700 280 8
465
315 221
1967
963 200 324
700 283 23
486
316 227
1968
992 211 345
708 290 29 516
311 232
1969
1055 215 365
717 298 29
548
338 231
1970
1085 222 389
768 30730
560
366 243
1971
1111 225 421
795 31535
570
38 251
1972
1138 234 452
796 32838
579
404 260
Guatemala Honduras Mexico
icarargaa Panama Paraguay
Peru Uruguay Venezuela
18 LAReps-TOTAL
261 190 379
258 372 217
287
517
337
257 199 403
268 359 215
320
558
350
254 205 402
298 368 208
314
576
349
254 212 408
292 380 213
314
596
355
251 207 417
321 376 214
338
633
367
250 207 435
321 387 222
348 758 655
378
265 208 443
319 397 223
356 761 681
380
271 223 462
341 427 241
350 757 721
395
275 219 466
329 422 241
352 718 743
403
279 223 469
326 441 231
354 687 778
400
240 277 228 488
322 459 227
376 704 774
417
240 280 221 495
337 498 234
395 713 778
432
260 281 223 499
359 525 241
419 687 817
437
262 299 221 522
372 554 237
422 670 848
439
277 303 217 564
401 565 239
437 680 926
459
282 308 227 581
425 589 248
444 679 948
471
292 312 239 601
430 615 244
455 692 942
478
298 316 241 617
448 643 250
449 646 954
485
297 332 254 645
436 667 254
439 647 971
502
297 337 253 664
445 703 256
436 681 977
521
296 348 259 687
452 734 262
461 710
1004
542
300 355 265 689
463 774 267
80 697
1004
560
304 365 268 717
na 804 273
493 686
1OO
581
Memorandum Item -
AE Total
LAFTAshy - Total
245
344
247
357
258
356
260
362
262
374
263
387
269
389
279
403
278
413
280
408
283
427
285
443
293
447
303
448
308
470
319
482
327
490
335
496
345
514
351
533
357
556
365
574
372
596
P - Preliminar - Preliminary
a Comunidad Economica Centroamerzcana Central American Economic Comunity
Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras y Nicaragua
b Asociacion Comercio Libre Latino Americano
Latin American Free Trade Association
Argentina Bolivia Bruzil Chile Colcmbia Ecuador Mexico Paraguay Peru Uruguay y Venezuela
Origen Source
Tasas de Crecimiento de Producto Nacional en Bruto y Datos de Tendencia AID Mayo 1973Cross National Product Growth Rates and Trend Data AID May 1 1973
TABLE IA13
ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATES OF SECTORAL CONTRIBUTION TO GDP(a) ASSUMING AN AVERAGE GDP GROWTH RATE IN THE 1975-1988 PERIOD
(IN PERCENT OF GDP)
OtherPrimary Secondary Utilities Service Total
1974 Actual (b) 255 81275 389 1000 Expected average 242 219 77 458
Range - Low (-ISD) 160 162 50 376 High(+ISDz) 324 276 104 540
1978 1960-74 Trend Value 242 305 83 370 Expected value - average (c) 217 238 82 458
Range - Low (-ISD) 130 181 55 376 High(+ISD) 300 295 109 540
Selected Average Value 247 300 83 370 1000
1988 1960-74 Trend Value 230 90380 322 Expected value - average (c) 194 271 91 439
Range - Low (-ISD) 107 214 64 357 HighQ(-ISD) 281 328 118 521
Selected Average Value 233 90340 337 1000
(a) 1958 Price Level
(b) Projected from 1973 data sources IMF and Central Bank estimates at 1958 Price Level
(c) Source Handbook of Expected Values of Structural Characteristics IBRD Working Paper 154 June 73
Includes Commerce government finance housing and other sectors
TABLE IA14
ALTERNATIVE MEASURESESTIMATES OF NICARAGUA S RESOURCES GAPNET CAPITAL
INFLOW AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP-HISTORICAIL amp PROJECTED
YEAR A B C D7 E F G
1960 06 26 22 21
61 14 15 09
62 36 26 24
63 04 16 11
64 13 20 16
65 27 31 39 38
66 76 69 80
67 16 85 98
68 18 37 60
69 17 28 48
70 08 23 45 26 47
71 + 20 20 47 27 47
72 + 64 +30 04 40 -05
73 TIMATS
74 1960-72 Resource GAP Av 35
13 = 40 75 74 =48
1975-79 = 4076 1980-90 = 30 1990-00 = 2577
Use -end points = of GDP7878 8=3024
1978 = 30 79 1988 = 25
47
39
35
31
26
15
65 85
59
49
38
33
35
A= Net imports of goods and non-factor services 1958 price level B= If current pricesC= National deficit in the current account of external savings - current price
(From the Account for the Rest of World)D= INCAE - Agenda 74-78 Table 11 Net foreign borrowing of GNP 73-7872PE= INCAE - Table 4 P31 Percentages Applied to total Investment amp GDP -Current pricesF= IMF 6-14-74 Report P7 amp 8 Nic Recent Economic Developments=G Projected GON 5 year Plan 75-79 Net imports 1974 price level
TABLE IA 15
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR AND TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA 1960-1974
AND PROJECTED 1975-1988 ASSUMING AN AVERAGE GROWTH RATE
GDP PER VALUE ADDED BY SECTOR - 100 1958 PRICESYEAR CAPITA PRIMARY SECONDARY TOTAL UTILITY OTHER TOT t(19580) SERVICE SERVICE SERVICE GDP
1960 1698 617 430 1349 168 1181 239661 1772 674 473 1428 180 1248 257562 1912 752 556 1552 199 1353 286063 2060 850 658 1665 224 1441 31744 2253 985 758 1816 250 1566 355865 2410 1072 851 1979 281 1698 390266 2427 1042 929 2057 292 1765 402867 2529 1119 1020 2164 316 1848 430368 2494 1061 1057 2232 332 1900 434969 2600 1199 1142 2307 353 1954 464870 2620 1172 1229 2400 365 2035 480171 2689 1285 1237 2506 382 2124 507872 2706 1337 1379 2573 396 2177 528973 2692 1365 1443 2616 419 2197 542474 2799 1488 1602 2742 471 2271 5832
78 3147 1862 2261 3415 626 2789 7538
83 3671 2493 3325 4570 893 3677 10388
88 4311 3335 4868 6114 1289 4825 14317
TABLE IA16
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR 1960-1974
AND PROJECTED 1975-1988 ASSUMING AN AVERAGE GROWTH RATE
YEAR PRIMARY VALUE ADDED BY SECTOR
SECONDARY UTILITY OTHER TOTAL SERVICE SERVICE SERVICE
1960 259 179 70 492 562 61 261 183 70 486 556 62 63
262 268
198 207
70 71
471 454
541 525
64 276 213 70 441 511 65 274 218 72 436 508 66 67
259 260
23C 237
72 73
439 429
511 502
68 244 243 76 438 514 69 258 246 75 420 495 70 71
244 232
256 254
76 76
424 423
500 499
72 73
233 252
261 266
75 78
411 404
486 482
74 235 275 81 389 470
78 247 300 83 370 453
83 240 320 86 354 440
88 233 340 90 337 427
TABLE IA 17
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR AND TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA 1960-1974
AND PROJECTED 1975-1988 ASSUMING A HIGH GROWTH RATE
GDP PER VALUE ADDED BY SECTOR - 106 1958 PRICES YEAR CAPITA TRIMY SECONDARY TOTAL UTILITY OTHER TOTAL
(1958 ) SERVICE SERVICE SERVICE GDP
1960 1698 617 430 1349 168 1181 2396 61 1772 674 473 1423 180 1248 2575 62 1912 752 556 1552 199 1353 2860 63 2060 850 658 1665 224 1441 3174 64 2253 985 758 1816 250 1566 3558 65 2410 1072 8- 1979 281 1698 3902 66 2427 1042 929 2057 292 1765 4028 67 2529 1119 1020 2164 316 1848 4303 68 2494 1061 1057 2232 332 1900 4349 69 2600 1199 1142 2307 353 1954 4648 10 2620 1172 1229 2400 365 2035 4801 71 2689 1285 1287 2506 382 2124 5078 72 2706 1337 1379 2573 396 2177 5289 73 2692 1365 1443 2616 419 2197 5424 74 2799 1488 1602 2742 471 2271 5832
78 3390 2005 2436 367 675 3004 8120
83 4339 2800 4175 5305 1130 4175 12280
88 5592 3770 6871 7930 1800 6130 18571
fABLE IA 18
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR 1960-1974
AND PROJECTED 1975-1988 ASSUMING A HIGI GROWTH RATE
VALUE ADE QYAXSECTOR 7 _ YEAR fRIMARY SECONDARY UTILITY OTHER TTA
SERVICE SERVICE SERVICE
1960 259 179 70 492 562 61 261 183 70 486 556 62 262 198 70 471 541 63 268 207 71 454 525 64 276 213 70 441 511 65 274 218 72 436 508 66 259 230 72 439 511 67 260 237 73 429 502 68 244 24 76 438 514 69 258 246 75 420 495 70 244 256 76 424 500 71 252 254 76 423 499 72 253 261 75 411 486 73 252 266 78 404 482 74 255 275 81 389 470
78 247 300 83 370 453
83 228 340 92 340 432
88 203 370 97 330 427
TABLE IA19
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR AND TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA 1960-1974
AND PROJECTED 1975-1988 ASSUMING A LOW GROWTH RATE
YEAR GDP PER CAPITA
VALUE ADDED BY SECTOR shy 106 1958 PRICES
(1958Y) PRIMARY SECONDARY TOTALSERVICE UTILITY
SERVICE OTHER
SERVICE TOTAL
GDP
1960 1698 617 430 1349 168 1181 2396 61 1772 674 473 1428 180 1248 2575 62 1912 752 556 1552 199 1353 2860 63 2060 850 658 1665 224 1441 3174 64 2253 985 758 1816 250 1566 3558 65 2410 1072 851 1979 281 1698 3902 66 2427 1042 929 2057 292 1765 4028 67 2529 1119 1020 2164 316 1848 4303 68 2494 1061 1057 2232 332 1900 4349 69 2600 1199 1142 2307 353 1954 4648 70 2620 1172 1229 2400 365 2035 4801 71 2689 1285 1287 2506 382 2124 5078 72 2706 1337 1379 2573 396 2177 5289 73 2692 1365 1443 2616 419 2197 5424 74 2799 1488 1602 2742 471 2271 5832
78 2890 1765 2021 3136 575 2561 6922
83 3030 2178 2606 3790 720 3070 8574
88 3198 2687 3399 4535 913 3622 10621
TABLE IA20
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR 1960-1974
AND PROJECTED 1975-1988 ASSUMING A LOW GROWTH RATE
YEAR PRIMARY SECONDARY UTILITY OTHER TOTAL SERVICE SERVICE SERVICE
1960 259 179 70 492 562 61 261 183 70 486 556 62 262 198 70 471 541 63 268 207 71 454 525 64 276 213 70 441 511 65 274 218 72 436 508 66 259 230 72 439 511 67 260 237 73 429 502 68 244 243 76 438 514 69 258 246 75 420 495 70 244 256 76 424 500 71 252 254 76 423 499 72 253 261 75 411 486 73 252 266 78 404 482 74 255 275 81 389 470
78 255 292 83 370 453
83 254 304 84 358 442
88 253 320 86 341 427
TABLA IA21 - TA3LE IA21
PR NMEDIO DE PORCENTAJE ANUAL DE TASAS DC 2 RFCIAIENTO EN EL PRIMARIO SECUNDARIO Y OTROS SERVICIOS DC SIUB-SECTORES
1960-1974 Y PROYECTADO HASTA 1938
Average Annual Growth Rates in the Primary Secondary and Other Service Sub-Sectors
1960-1974 and Projected to 1988
PERIODO PROMEDO ANUAL PIBSE CTORES Period 1974-1988 Sectors 1960-1974 1960-67 1957-74 (MAS PROBABLE)
Annual Average 1974-1988(Most Probable GDP)
PRI ARIO TOTAL 65 39 41 53 Total Primary AGRICULTURA - Agriculture 67 89 45 53MINERIA - Mining 11 83 59 78
SECUNDARIO TOTAL 99 131 66 73 Total SecondaryINDUSTRIA - Industry 96 128 65 72CONSTRUCCION - Construction 113 151 76 75
OTRO TOTAL DE SERVICIO 48 66 30 48 Other Service Total COERCIO - Commerce 64 82 47 47OTRO SERVICIO MENOS COMERCIO 31 52 11 48 Other Service Less Commerce
INCLUYE COMERCIO GOBTERNO FiNANZAS VIVIENDA Y OTROS SECTORES Includes Comrerce Government Finance Housing and Other Sectors
TABLA TA22 Table IA22
AREAS BAJO CULTIVO PARA PRODUCTOS PRINCIPALES DE AGRICULTURA Areas Under Cultivation for Principal Agricultural Products
SUPERFICIE COSECHADA EN MANZANAS POR DEPARTAIENTO DE LOS PRINCIPA-LES CULTIVOS NICARAGUENSES (COSECIA 1972-73)
Surface Area Harvested By Department of the Principal Nicaraguan Cultivation (Harvest 1972-73)
CARA DE FRIJOLES MAIZ ARROZ AZUCAR ALGODON AJONJOLI CAFE SORGO Beans Corn Rice Sugarcane Cotton Sesame Coffee Sorghum
Managua 3829 11060 2970 t949 19118 21836435 9890
Masaya 1923 8532 768 14 6747 10991955 1282
Granada 3599 4108 5172 917 3561 219 2638 2468
Carazo 5037 7584 27a6 920 281 14310164 9744
Leon 2256 22120 1768 241 78093 4319 172 14106
Chinandega 787 28756 167 28836 76744 2489 879 7646
Rivab 3687 6004 2569 4150 -- 1105 1612 2158
Boaco 6944 16116 8276 241 18 50 3637 10920
Chontales 5093 21488 876 245 -- 439 5848
Esteli t396 15168 23 289 -- 404 3370 4625
Jinotega 6197 40448 272 1930 15 -- 34204 2817
Madriz 4449 11060 -- 43 -- 94 4836 5722
Matagalpa 18329 50244 3170 1399 2811 393 34439 8352
Nueva Segovia 3511 24964 -- 482 19 7 12456 1525
Rio San Juan 2185 4424 1568 14 -- -- 147 29
Zelaya 5228 43924 3036 1592 -- 586 19
TOTAL 79449 316000 33371 48262 187437 L1094 146556 87151
PROYECCIONES EN MANZANAS DE LOS PRINCIPALES CULTIVOS DE NICARAGUA - 19781979 Principbl Cultivated Areas in Nicaragua - 19781979
Managua 4848 1143 3942 7750 30704 418 21836 5926
Masaya 2434 9057 1020 16 10836 880 10990 767
Granada 4557 4361 6865 1022 5720 223 2638 1477
Carazo 6378 8051 3614 1028 451 177 14310 5837
Leon 2857 23482 2348 269 125446 3833 172 8447
Chinandega 101 30526 222 32150 123279 2211 879 4577
Rivas 4668 6374 3411 4625 -- 1004 1612 1294
Boaco 8792 17108 10984 269 30 78 3637 6542
Cliontales 6448 22811 1161 274 -- 440 3501
Esteli 8098 16102 32 323 -- 387 3370 2771
inotega 7847 42939 364 2152 24 -- 34204 1685
Nadriz 5633 11741 -- 48 -- 116 4836 3423
Matagalpa 23208 53338 4209 1561 4515 374 34439 5002
Nva Segovia 4446 26501 -- 538 30 6 12456 913
Rio San Juan 2766 4696 2082 16 -- -- 147 16 Zelaya 6119 46629 4031 1776 -- -- 586 1o
TOTAL 100598 335459 44285 53817 301035 9707 146552 52188
Fuente Estudios Economicos yEstadisticas - lWiagnostico del Sector Agropecuario - 1966-1972 - Prelisnar Source Economic Studies and Statistics - Farming Sector Diagnostic - 1966-1972 - PreliminaryFuente Oficina Nacional de Planificacion Source National Planning Office
TA3LA 1A 23 - TABLE IA23
INDUSTRIA MANLTACTURERA DE NICARAGUA )
Manufacturing Industr of Nicaragua 1)
INDUSTRIx MLAN-ACTCRRA
Maul1acturin lndsrv
DE NICARAGUX1 )
Nicaragua
I ALLMLNTOS - Food
A) Productos Lacteos - Milk Products
MANAGUA
EskimoLa Perfecta La Pefecqita
La ExquisitaHacendados LUnidos SA
Rosa Sa--son de aithe La Salud Laaudel
Manue Martinez F
rasmo olmanZELAYA
LENBooth LEON
Ulises Irias Ricardo Duarte Sues
Margarita de Lacayo
ATAGALPA
RosaSa-son
RigueroINCASA C)
Productos Alimenticios SA CHINANDEGA Addn Vivas LacayoG)Agustin Pasos
Gemina SA
Reyes y Vigic Cia LtdaAA LEANANLEON GADAAceitera
Moisa Reyes Avil~s y Cia Ltda
e GathePurina E) Panaderias - BakeriesGRAeADAULina
Enrique Callejas Nabisco Cristal
Envases de Productos de Mar - Cant6n Biscuit ManufacturerSeafood Packir Pastas Rivelli
Pastas El GloboEramh oa Galletas Estrellade Nicaragua SA Repos-eria Alaniz
B Hamasakay Cia Ltda Pescanica SA LEON Atlas Frozen Rondon Uzcudum y Peters y Cia Ltda Panaderia Salgado Efraim Saballos Panaderia MunguiaGKi Young ChangErnesto Woolward F) Confituras - PreservesWills Bowers Inc
MANAGUAHielo RIVASUA
G) Varios Variousaro_s-Vros
MANAGUA
Cocona SA
Ja o luArgue AoPursanaf Noubaesa Jose Arguello
Nubasa Aceitera Nacional
Lacayo de Rosales
Salmidon SA Pablo Mgntica
Molina y Cia LtdaArturo Riguero Hielera SequeiraViking Refrigeraci6n~nsrsyFseo Suminstros y Festejos Luis Mejia Felix Pereira
GRANADA
E Chamorro Cia Ltda
Guillermo Castillo Granada SA
Elsa Maria de Head
Prolacsa Nicamar Roberto LanningEfraim Contreras LEON
B) Ccnservas de Frutas - Fruit Preserves CHINANDEGA Marcelo Reithel Sabores Cosco Industrias Quezalsa SAHielera de Le6n
1)
1)
Fuentes
Sources
MAILIUA Karlarl Rauenk 0) John Raven Felix Pereira V
Empacadora Nacional SA
1) Directorio de las Pltas Industriales clasifica-das Ministerio de Economia Industrial y Co-mercia Marzo de 1966
2) Encuesta a la Inustria XNrnufactureraBanco Central de Nicaragua 1973
1) Director of Plants Classified Industries Minisshytry of Economy Industrial amp Cormmercial March 1966 2) Census of Manufacturing Industry Central Bank of
Nicaragua 1973
Alinsa
Productos deMlino-RVA Grinding Products
iAnAGAPGabriel
El Caracol Manuel Estrada AmpigCereales de CA SA Cia Harinera de Nicaragua Standard Foods Corporation Tostaduria SuperAnibal Morales
Industrias Chipirul GueckGRANADA
Jose Ocampo
CARAZO
Bambi
ESTELI
Gonfiteria Cerna
Ruben Valladares Screb Gallinapolis
RIVAS
Gabriel Urctyo Gallegos
Concentrados Gabriel Martin
ESTELI
Francisco J Moreno fraisR Mo Eofaem Ramos ASAYA
Nutrimentos TegarLriyentos Teg a
Lacayo hamorro y Cia
IA3LA IA23 - TABLE IA23
INDISTRIA AANI Y7r2R7RL3DE NICARACUA Maijrvturin6 Industry of Nicara-ua
(CONTINUADA) (Continued)
TI Bebidas - Beverages GRANADA MASAYA VIII Imprenta y Productos de Papel
Licores v Similares Sacsa Cecalsa Printers amp Paper Products TLiquor 5 Similars
ANAGIA LEON CARAZO MANAGUA
Desarrollo Industrial de Nic Kola Shaler
Silvio Arguello Cardenal
BOACO
Gonzalo Cordoba Bolseiro Cia Ltda
Industrias Papeleras S A Carton de Nicaragua SA Fabrica Narunal de Bolsas SA
Cia Cervecera de Nicaragua Compania icorera de Nicaragua Vicente Zamora B
VI Muebles y Accesorias de Madera Y Corcho Furniture amp Wooden amp Cork Accessories
Belli y Castellon Empaques Multiwall Rodulfo Ramirez A
Ultrafort
CARAZC MANAGUA ConpasaIndustrias Piur SA
Santa Cecilia V Vestuario y Calzado Shoes and Clothing
-Muebles Modernos SA
julo Hernandez Litografia Robelo
Gaseosas - Soft Drinks MANAGUA Jose Mendoza Osorno Muebles Atlas
Ofilio Lacayo Novedades
ANA(A
Embotelladora Nacional SA Nilca de Nicaragua SA
San Josd
LEON
Rodolfo Jerez Arnoldo Garcia Kikatex
El Oso Nomar
El Triunfo Karina
Trajes G~mez
Misael Lopez Luis Borrel Roman Molina Gomez Pierson Jackman Enrique Luna Sovipe Comercial
Muebles de Centroamerica Moldex
Multimuebles de CA
La Prensa La Prensa GrAfica Carlos y Josd Quant Editorial Uni6n Litografia San Josd Formas T~cnicas CA Ind Papelera Mercurio Papeleria industrial Pinsa
Gaseosas Flores Lacayo
Lola Vigil
Akran Karam Rosa de Bandes
Muebleria Trafa Muebles y Decorados Funeraria El Amparo
LEON
El Centroamericano
CHINANDEGA
Gaseosas Super
Rosa Quintanilla Tienda Broadway
Ronaldo Vargas V Luis Daboud
La Cat6lica Tscones Ago
Envases Industriales de Nicaragua
Csar A Robelo Jos6 E Aguilar
GRANADA
III Tabaco - Tobacco Tejidos Puma
Rolter LEON
MANAGL- Manica SA California
Carlos Avell~n Muebleria Esco
Id Unidos de CA
XASAYA
S A
Tabacalera Nicaraguense SA Ruiz City Club
Funeraria Heraldica Imprenta Gurdian
ESTE T
Nicaragua Cigars
Chontal
Garbal
CH INANDEGA
VII Cuero y Productos de Cuero
Leather amp Leather Products 1QNAGUA GRANADA
ix Sustancias y Prod QuimicosSubstances amp Chemical Products
IV Textiles Textiles IV Txtils shy exti es
Industrias Shihab Teneria Chontal Teneral Hurtado MNAGUA
NA[t LEON EN
La Francesa LEONReencauchadora
Reencauchadora Nicaraguense
Hilanica El Porvenir Gadala Maria Textiles Centroamericanos
Tricotext ilTejidos Nicarao
Tejidos Nicarao Hilados Staviskv Cesar A Robelo Jorge Lheelock
Las 3 F Fabritex
Juan Suhr Navarro
Napoleon Quant
MATAGALPA
Alfredo Lopez S ASElectroquimica
LEON
Teneria Los Leones BBataan Gurdian
Santa Ana AB Lothrop y CiaRoberto Ramirez Hercules de CA Genie Penalba Cyanamid Inter-Amercan orpCana mi e nnalt
Pennwalt Productora de gas csb6nico
TABLA IA23 - TABLE IA23
INDUSTRIA MANtFACTURERA DE NICARAGUA (CONTINUADA)
Manufacturing Industry of Nicaragua (Continued)
IX -(continued)
Cia de productos Atmosfericos
Silicatos de CA Luis Hasbani Napoleon Tereero
Plasticos Modernos
Record
Aislite SA Kativo de Nicaragua Pinturas Pittsburgh SA Quimica Borden Mercadeo Industrial SA Policasa Esinca
Quimica Stahl Nicar Quimica (Pinturas Sur) Irsa Cosmeticos Laboratorios Rarpe
Casa Comercial Ahler Laboratorios Ramos
Penz-ma Elfar
Recipe
Bengoechea Cherrosi
Linsa Prosan Lafanisa
Cofasa Laboratorios Fanal
Unidos de CASA Ceguelsa
Roche Industrial Algodon Quirurgico de CA Jabonera America
El Hogar Cosmeticos Bogue Caldera Industrial SA Detergentes de Nicaragua SA Imp y Distrib Ocal SA Blandon y Cia Lazaro Parodj Bassett Carlos Norice Lanzas Alberto Chamorro Earl Hueck
Leopoldo Riestra Humberto Corea
Candeleria Llanes
Salvador Zamora
Jaboneria Victoria Manuel Jarquin Bonilla Julio Martinez Lacayo Pallais
Sabas Acosta
Poveda y Marenco Salomon Mantilla Saravia Liberato Villavicencio Alberto Castillo
Salvador Giacoman Rafael Huezo Belli Castellon
viguel Alvarez Octavio Arguello
Sacos Macen Cica
Prod Mejores SA Plasticos Maber
Esso Estandard Oil SA Ltda
CHILANDEGA X
Insecticida Stauffer Eduardo Paniagua Rivas Sociedad Aerofumigadora NicSA Expasa Quimica
GRANADA
-anadera Agriola Ind SA Solon Gutierrez E Chamorro Benard E Chamorro y Cia Ltda Daniel Prego y Cia Ltda Eduardo Castillo R
LEON
Prod Agricolas Nacionales SA Arguello Robelo y Cia Ltda Indust Quezalsa SA Servicio Agricola Curdian Julio Arguello P Carlos DuqueEstrada Pronica SA
Algodonera Nic Sociedad Coop A Albertina Vda de Lopez Ind Quimicas Atlas
Monsanto Agricola de Nic SA
MASAYA
Laboratorios Solka
CARAZO
Plastinic
ZELAYA
Cia Maderera Nic de Pino hoja larga Harry Brautigan El Coco-Cukra Development Company Maria Siu de G6mez
RIVAS
Carlos Holmann
ESTELI
Luis Irias Barreda
Minerales No Metalicos Non-Metallic Minerals
MANAGUA
Cerdmica Chiltepe
Cia Nac Prod de Cemento Vitralux SA
J RomAn Molina G6mez Incesa Cal Estrella Abraham Balcaceres Concretera Nacional SA Alfredo Brantome Lesbia Cabrera de Cerulli Santos Guerrero Ricardo Duarte X Vicente Aranda Ladrilleria San Pablo Cerisa Ladrilleria Atlas Bloques El Carmen Procon
Nicalit
LEON
C~sar Zapata
XI
GRANADA
Ganadera Agricola Ind SA
RIVAS XII
Francisco Urcuyo
Ronald Castillo
ESTELI
Alberto Lanuza
Minerales Metalicos Metallic Minerals
MANAGUA
Lanicsa
Standard Steel Camas Luna
Ind Dacal J RomAn Molina G6mez
Humberto Gabuardi Alincasa Tament- XIII Comsa
Vidrial SA Estructuras RAP
Van Leer Eatructuras M~ull
Martin Benard Luis Garcia
Metasa Imusa Corlisa
Cometal Ind Consolidada CA lierramientas Agricolas SA Julio Taria Humberto Ramirez E Aluminio Nicaraguense SA Godelca y Cia Ltda
LEON
Jos6 E Aguilar Roberto Reyes
MASAYA
Inca
MATAGALPA
Hojalateria Matagalpa
Maquinaria No Electrica Non Electric Machinery
MANAGUA
Edmundo Tefel 0 Y M Dailey Jose Mendoza Osorno Wilfredo Castefleda Alvaro Ramirez Foguel de Nicaragua
CHINANDEGA
Carlos Gomez
MASAYA
Francisco Rodriguez
Enrique Palacios
Maquinaria y Articulos Electricos Machinery amp Electric Articles
MANAGUA
Conducem SA
Adrian Cuadra G Intercomunicadora Electroniea
Frank Ley Edmundo Tefel Acumuladores CA
Bpterias Hasbani Imusa Jose Sotomayor Ernesto Mantilla Octavio Ramirez Siemens de CA Cidensa Elka
Sisa Tescasa
LEON
Rolac Ltda Gonzalo Silva
rABLA iA23 TABLE IA23 INDItSTRIA MNUFACTI-ERA DE NICAFCUA (CONTIjUADA) Manufacturing ndustrv of Nicaragua (Continued)
XIV Material de Transporte
Transportation Material
xNAGUA GRANADA
Constructora Naviera Ramon Tejeiro
Capitol SA Enimosa Anastasio Castellon Astlleros de Nicaragua
JINOTEPE
Julio Cerrato Joyeria Dos Cruces
LEON
Cesar A Robelo
Reyes Aviles Cia Ltda
Jose Aguilar
Edmundo Meneses C CARAZO
MATAGALP Guillermo Solils
Barberena - Molina
XV Manufacturas Diversas Divers arufacturers
MANAGUA
Roberto Teran Nuftez Gomez y Cia Ltda Discos SA Cia Industrial CA SA Plasticos Robelo SA
Arguello Tefel y Cia Ltda Hammer y Stein Cia Ltda
Edrulfo Largaespada Luis Caracas S Tanic Cesar Robelo Humberto Quant Metales Decorativos SA Emcosa Pilar Altamirano Myriam Arguello Carmen M de Carrion Elena Frech de Nastas
Estela de Cuarezma Francisco Chavarria Antouio Cruz R
Benjaml Rocha Julio Martinez Belli Castellon
Roberto Salvatierra Pedro Jose Solorzano Edgardo Anzoategui
Rotulos Modernos
TABLA IA24 - TABLE IA24
TEMPORADA Y OTRAS INSTALACIONES DE INDUSTRIA Seasonal and Other Industrial Installations
DESMOTADORAS TRILLOS DE ARROZ Cotton Gins Rice Threshers
CHINANDEGA JEON MANAGUA MANAGUA LEON
Chinandega Ina Metosa Depsa
Fecomsa Curdan Quezalguaque La Ceiba
Chilamatillo Inagor Camsa Orierte
Santa Maria Trillo de Arroz
GRANADA
Arroceros de Occidente Sergio Ca3ttlIo
MASAYA La VirgenPuente Real
Prolesa Porvenir MASAA Asociacion de arroceros TrIllo de Arroz
C de AIg Ansca Melas Agra Saimia CARAZO Sn Juan B El Sauze Las Mercedes San Jose GRANkDA Enrique Sanchez Occidente
Santa Lmilia Ina
BENEFICIO DE CAFE INGENIOSCoffee Processing Plants Sugar Mills
MANAGUA MATACALPA MANAGUA CIIlNANDEGA
Carlos Knoepffer Caley Dagnall Agricola Santa Rita San AntonioGuillermo Noguera Joaquin Lanzas Montelimar Monte Rosa Caf6 y ganado SA Pablo Castellon GRANADA ZELAYA M Estrada Ample JINOTECA E Palazio Amalia Fansa Cruz Lorena Juan Molina
Castellon y Cia LEON Jacinto Lopez RIVAS
Chavez y Cia Ramiro Ortiz Arguello Victor Castellon Dolores Orlando Teran Callejas Pablo Castellon CARAZO
GRANADA La Amistad El Porvenir
Constantino Meneses Acevedo Bendafla y Cia Mario Ilanon Fernando Montealegre
ASERRADEROS MATADEROS Y EMBUTIDORES Sawmills Slaughter Houses and Canneries
MANAGUA NATAGALPA MANAGUA ESTELI
Plywood de Nicaragua Madecasa CARNIC Empacadora Nicaraguense SA Procesadora Ind de Madera IfagdnCarlos Morales Orozco JiNOTEGA Delmor MATAGALPA Aserrio Las Brisas Empacadora Nacional
Ducuall Embutidora Nacional Te6dulo NavarreteZELAYA Flores Lobo y Escobar
ESTELI Alberto Rond6n RIVASTropical Development Cop Oscar Cervantes Joe Watson Intell Alina de Zons Igosa Hadinsa Atchenko NUEVA SEGOVIA MASAYA
LEON Yodeco Tip-Top Emag6n El Lech6n
Santa Fe Segovian Lumber Ramos CIIINANDEGA
MASAYA
Cerardo NissignSan Fernando
Fuente D jmotadoras - Informe de Operaciones 1972-1973 - Comisi6n Nacional del Algod6n Source Cotton Gins - Operations Report 1972-1973 - National Cotton Commission
Trillos beneficios ingenios aserraderos y matanza segun - Directoria de las Plantas Industriales clasificadas Ministerlo de Economia Industria
y Comercio Harzo de 1966 - Encuesta a la Industria anufacturera Banco Central de Nicaragua 1973
Threshersprocesses mills sawmills and slaughter houses per - Classified leading Industrial Plants Ministry of Economic Industry and Commerce March 1966 - Census of Manufacturing Industry Central Bank of Nicaragua 1973
APPENDIX IA
F I P U R A S
TENDENCIAS CONCERNIENTES A LA ECONOMIA NACIONAL
F I G U R E S
RELATING TO NATIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS
- - -
10000
9000 1- -7000
-
6000
5000
4000
-r__ POSL ACO TOrA TOTJLURBAN AND_ _
__-
RS-PI Y
RURAL LOPU
--- ATION 1960-1990i9 -shy1990
-1_ --~l
- -_-----___
- -R
shy
00
002000
0 TOTA
---shy
2
a ~RURAL
Soo 700
t
5 0( Urban
400 o 0
-
0Coo ]
-bulloc
pound
6 I
I 1
4 1 _ _ 6
f
-shy
i
- _1
_ _ L- __ __ _
ri _
I
-7 19__ _ _
I
197
1 8
_
_j
_ ___
9 _
_
_ I _____
I_
I
n
oi I I I I
19 Ig|165 162J6 963 967 196 1_69 197 1911 FJT 193 174 197 196
AfJOS Years
177 98 9 80 1982 1982 83 4 65 2966 1987 r |g1
0
I
VALOR AGREGADO DEL ECTOR COMO PORdENTAJE DEL OiROD CTOINTERNOBRUTO (P) I PRIM RY SECTOR VWIIU ADDED AS PEE OFGROSS DOMESTIC RODI)CT (G D P)
0~
30
wo
aL
- o iISI
0 0H
MER AJ USTE HIST(RICO Y =
ricl les F 68-02X AA--
W i0i~~~SI i
J
1 t ORCI PITAA DELCEC
0 B ITO ENLACO A Pa
960 6 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1966 1969 I9TO 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976
Jtcr-YEAR
1977 1978 1979 1960 1981 198Z 1983 194 1985 19861367 19116 pound989 1990
4 1I 45 Ii I
40 AqjREGDWiVALOR EL E- R SiCUNDARK COMIO
PORCENTAJE DEL ROD INTERNO BRUi ECdNDARY S CTOF VALU A)DEDiAS (p1B)FERCE IT OF- -
z 0 PR_ ( u p P -UU ESjCI - _ __ _
o 0
-w0
-- t ------shyo0 a- WEJOR AJUS E HIS ORIC Y 170X
= oJ_ - - degdeg __ Y__deg
ci ORCENTAJE DEL tECTC EN RELACON A PIB
0 I SUMIENDO IB CON Sctos Per ant - GDP Assu ing G P With
n-I- SO TASA E CRCII NTO PROMEDIOAvera e Gro t Roaa
o TASA E AJA_ CRCECIMIE NTOi ASA DE CIECIMIENTO i 1 I D~ gh~iCrowhlR0t
LTA
5I _ L I
_ _ 0_ -_LiI_
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 984 905 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
AND - YEAR
- - -
- -
S I i i -- - -__ 1 I ___- -q
11 VfLOh AGEG 4DO EL IL LECTMRI AD O ___ ICi II
INTERNO BRU0 (IB)I -__ - - shy_-ORdENTAJE )EL PRODUCT9 _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ __ ____ 2_ _ __ - i i -_- - - -_ __-I - I _L _ _ UTILITY (SERVICE)SCTOR VALUE ADDED AS PERtENT
i--OF G-RO6SS -DOMESTf cent PR-PDU-euro T- (GD-P) I W I - -- -I I
I --- _ _ _ - -I _ _ _-_ _ i -- - - shy
z 0 c
i --4 i- hI ___
m 8-- ------
PORCEkTAJ DEL SECTO EN ELAc10 A PIB(n ___ Fi- - _ ____ __- - t L__
0 S -B- - -shy0 O l ______________ -- t--- I ______ ____
- - - __ _ __
W4 - - - 4-shy
bull -i eSArqe ke C~C~NTO _ROMI 10I I
___ Aof a _ _ 0 I i ------I Low drowth RateIRate ] - -- _-mshy- - - -- - - - - - - - - - -- -- --- ----- -i --- - Low Grwt
-
_+ _AJ _+_--- - - __ _- - -TAS t- __C 1Ik~ l iN --
u 7 Aege Gr wth Rate-shy- I I I _ I I I _ _I1 ASI 1I t
160 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 19TS 1977 1978 1979 1980 19e 1982 1983 194 MG 198T t 1989 190AN 0- YE AR
80 deg1 I 9lirr l 70 VAL AbREGDO DEL EC OR OBRAS SERVI lOS_ ____PORCENTAJ DEl PR DUTO INTERNNROMORUO P)0
0 OTHER S4RVIcE SFGTdR V4LUE ADOID AS PERCENT OF- ROSS DCOMESTIC RODUCT -(G ) ID
0 40~ 0
o_-~a0uj _ i __ shy
oso cal es t R T T N LCO lJ UM DE -shy
~0
zD- i~~Dt Io PI 8c cL a0
10GowlRt rASA DE CF lI A rowt h RteI er aig
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
ANO- YEAR
50000
40000
30000-
PROYECCION PROMEDIO DE LOS COMPONENTES TOTALES Y SECTORIALES DEL PRODUCTOINTERNO BRUTO BASAO EN LA TASA DE CRECIMIENTO PROMEDIO ANUAL 1960-T4
AVERAGE PROJECTION OF TOTAL AND SECTORAL COMPONENTS OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
BASED ON 1960-74 AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF INCREASE-I
-t- - - - - E
eo o I _ ___1
-
-
_
I_ _
o
00006000
_____
-T a-
__
-
_
I
~
j
i
1 Ill
i__-__
H $~ 000shy
ll- - bull 1
o
1200 00
400~ To
i i i
Tof 1 1_ __ _7
oo 30bO
Td17U iplusmn hjl
1961 1962 2963 1964- 2965 2966 2967 1968 1969
11lil -t-i-L44-JsectI 4-jI~-TI9 jjj II 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 2975 19765 2977 2976 1979 980 1962 1982 1983 2984 2985
1986 1987 2988
f2 I
1989 1990
ANOS -Yr_
r 7
- __PROYECCJ0 ALTA DE LOS-- COMP0NENTES _TjQTALES YSECTORIALES bEL-PRODUbTO JNT--NOBRUTO _ASAOENLA TASA DECRECIMIENTO 00_50000 NUALD I_- _
V i I shy-1-RQnQI0
40000LI__D~SF
30000 -
HGH PROJECTION OF T ALIAND ECTRAL C EOS
R--D C1- BASED 2ON-- 90-T_AVLRAGEANUALRA_T_E OFJNCREASE__ __ - - -shy
o 7deg 0
rj---f -- --
ooo [L_ L__ _ 77t t _--- bullj--4-
------------------------ ---- -------- _- i-- - -
-Jshy
_
-i -shy
I T
-
1 T
T
-
~
P
F00
F0--
4
j----- I
- i
bull T
__
l
0000 ___ _ooo_____
I F J
S0 0 0 -- -I-
4
- - - -
F-- -
I -- -- -
i -
i I I -I- -1 ---
bull L F--shy
- I- E I - II
2 3 46 97 I B 99 0) 9 72 Ir - O=7 1975 1976 1977 1979 99 89 1981 I 32 1963 1984 1985 2986 96 i3I 2I990 NOS-Years
PROYECCION- BAJA DE LOS COMPONENTES TOTALES Y SECTORIALES I I DEL PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO 9ASADO EN LA TASA DE CRECIMIENTO
oo PRoE)oI ANUAL DE967-74
4000 LO PROJE TION OF TOTAL AND SECTORAL 6ilPONENTS 6FGRSS DOMESIC --O--
PRQDVCT BSED 19~I INI EElt( I i I -
o -1 VT 1 - - _gtT I
0
focl fP--o 700 1- - -T T 1 -- ---- - i -I--
-I-To
o o o _ i - - I--- i9000
I
i
__
- - -- -
-- - -----
- 1 - - - - -
_ bull_____
TOTAL K71
-1---
111
__ _J
4--
o --
7n60
ooi -- I_ t
__-
I1417 Servico lt--------------- - - -shy
- - -
130 9416 92 96 96 97 16 96 90 1716 97 93 94 17 9978 197 197 997l9 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1983 1990ANOS Years
L L y C N~ D A
L E G E N )
CONCDER - LOP - - I - E t LTRFlCAChN RURA-
COERAM -COOPERATIVA
COERORI - CDCPERTPI
NZASEGO14-MiDRI
El FCTR F-CACICIN RUNA
ELECTRlFlCAXIU RURAL
DI 11 fIC1CLl h-R tUE AMEPAISOQUEV
DE FLIUTP FlALON RFURAL DE PlAF
EATEI l C CEfIi I poundfF -CIN UAL
ANrT(S DE
ANTE 5 DE 14PI-C
VEGO0VIA
S 16
ANTEI lZ
LEO4
owI
COST RICA
FIG 2
ZONA DE CARGA- CENTROS DE CONSUMO
or LOAD ZONE -CONSUMPTION CENTERS
1
i
ZONA I
ZONA 2
MANAGUA Ii
I Mkrnl4o4000 9+2 Cm 904
IILvlll1
XO4TLANSUR
ONA 13 MANAGUA-COSTA DE CARAZO 95I So09 09ltlloov 952 r29$0109
3 So Pool
3 0L 710-144 (Col)
251 tO 904
L t 3
23 L+I Ro
2OWATLANOESTE ZONA ZONA 14 JINOTEGA SUR
co
ZN
Z
94 LO355
4go
4LO
PI So-
11utl
ZONA 15
9 P90 ~14 4 Y1119
15 a t
00OTLAN ESTE
f
-
ZONA 5
ZcNA 6
4 9 100
LEON RURAL
I 5 2 om
CHINAN-EGA- CORINTO
ZONA 16 NUEVA SEGOVIA-MADRIZ-
9C 9 000901 9 111
5 I964 Yllo l
ol409ll l
ESTELI
6 2 c l0 ZON 17 ESTELIp0
- l l ZONA 7 CI4ICRIGALPA- POSOLTEGA ZONA 1S COERAM
ZOA 41 CONOoER
TI~pIT40I
ZONA I MASATA
7pw
or090609000
p
40 pound(I19T9I9CII I
6 9
u
ZONA 19
do
d0A
COERDRI
0
(900
IR
RO
o~
~~-~
IC11II
MAR ~
I CARIBIE 9
~ 1 4
202mn 4 9op20
7 CAG ER a I
1090 ZONA 20
ZONA 21
ELECTRIFICACIONRURAL DE MATAGALPA
2 (1 T
ELECTRIFICACIONRURAL DEL RAMA
-gJunq IrdegOP0 1o
0 00 0 9213
ZONA 10 CARAZO NURTE
Sdo 4i0l
ZONA 22
2 L El- i292 ito (rI
ELECTRIFICACIONRURAL MANAGUA-LEON 21 [1
91 ZONAII
904 L P00 40 090090 1 14 TS I22
0
GRANADA
ZONA 23
222 L 29 223 uo11114 S40r-lacll0d Cl
ELECTRIFICACIONRURAL LARAZO
239 L T990dd
III2 ZONA 24 ELECTRIFICACiON RURAL JINOTEGA
49 l 99 4 l 249 LC90p90110
7 p9El 90v
+
ZONA12 MATAGALPA OESTE
2 23 o
2 3 5 II Ml El Il 0
( EMPRESA NACIONAL DE LUZ Y FURZA MANAGUA DN NICARAGUA
PLAN GENERALDE DLSARROLIO NATIONAL POWER STUDY 19781988
SISTEMA INTERCONECTADO NACIONAL
f-FA LIE
--ItRF
ERVICIQ
IE f
0 Go
INTERNATIONAL
e
ENGINEERING
9E - + 9
COMPANYINC
INTENTIONALLY LEFT
BLANK
04 9 05shy
0 0 3
0 04
(7 0 0 2
30 0
52 OEu~I OJhRt
0 aevae 3 o 05
08 6
2 Omuta l I
30 oosb
a~ 00 OEInnd raoa L G 0 AoC
al o 03 2 Ihir 0
O~~~soSo Mig4080
4
2oa 5
0
0
CT 0 A
FIG IA9
0 10 20 30 40 50 100 MILES DE MANZANAS i I i II 1 000 Monlonos
Note EL DIAMETRO D DE LOS CIRCULOS I NOICA LAS MANZANAS COILTIVADAS CIRCLE DIAMETERD INDICATES MANZANAS CULTIVATED
Ain
q shy
-
CULTIVO DE MANZANAS ESPERADO gtEN 1974 shy1979
Cultivation of Mzs Expected1974 - 1979
_eg Cet972MANZANAS CULTIVADAS EN 1972 -1973 Mzs Cultivated in 1972 - 1973
MAIZ Corn
ARROZ Rice
z
2 CARA Cane
6 ALGODON Cotton
-i 3 AJONJOLI Oilseed
7 CAFE Coffee
o3
02
o
z
4
w
4 SORGO
Sorghum
FRIJOLES
Beans
Bletlld C)
0
FULENTE
Source
DIVISION DE ESTUDIOS ECONOMICOS Y ESTADISTICAS DE ENALUIF
t Division of Economics and Statistical Studies of
ENALUF
08
son migueIIn
EMPRESA NACIONAL DE LUZ Y FUERZA MANAGUA DN NICARAGUA
PLAN GENERAL DEDESARROLLONATIONAL POWER ST1JDY1978-1988
R
Soarlos
I C
)
A
PRODUCTOS AGRICOLAS PRINCIPALES AREAS DE CULTIVO
PPIMAPY A ICULTURAL PRODUCTS AREAS UNDER CULTIVATION
1972 - 1979 INTERNATIONAL ENGINEERING COMPANY INC
Sj O lbi AMVIIAIA(J J
IECOL I-U NONTLOMERY STRE1 111ALI C) LALIFORNIA 9414I
MARI119 7 5
H 0 N UR
~ ~YqllqllniWo
30 [01
Vi25 00 ol 0 deg
40 0 e o60 10 o i
IDO Co o 90 13~llo
Iop 0c~p05mloli
CI 001 40 C S AI5
FIG A 10
ESTA BLECIMIENTOS INDUSTRIALES INDUSTRIAL ESTABLISHMENTS
0 5 1 20 30 40 50 ESTABLECIMIENTOS NOTA- EL DIAMETRO DE LOS CIRCULOS INDICA I I I I EFTAP- SiEIT EL NUMERODE ESTABLECIMIENTOS
CNCLE CIAMETER INDICATES NUMBER OF ESTABLISHMENTS
I ALIMENTOS 9 BEBIDAS Food Drink
2 TABACO TEXTILES Tobacco Textiles
- 0
3--VESTUARIO Y CALZADO Clothing and shoes
CUERO Y PRODUC-TOS DE CUERO Leather and leather products
MUEBLES Y ACCESORIOS DE MADERA Y CORCHO Furniture and wood accessories
IMPRENTAS Y PRODUC-TOS DE PAPEL Printing and paperproducts
-SUSTANCIAS Y PRO-DUCTOS QUIMICOS Chemical products
3 MINERALES NO META-LICOS Non -metallic minerals
MINERALES META- MAQUINARIA NO ELECshy
K 6 LICOS
Metallic minerals TRICA Non-electric machinery
N
7 MAQUINARIA Y ARTICULOS ELEC-TRICOS Machinery and electrical articles
15 MATERIAL DE TRANS-PORTE Transportation material
o
z 8
MANUFACTURAS Dlshy-VERSAS
Diversn products
w
_7r
FUENTE
Source
DIVISION DE ESTUDIOS ECONOMICOS Y ESTADISTI-CAS DE ENALUF Division of Economics and Statistical Studies of Enaluf
N
EMPRESA NACIONAL DE LUZ Y FUERZA MANAGUA DN NICARAGUA
PLAN GENERAL DE DESARROLLONATIONAL POWER STUDY 19781988
PRODUCTOS INDUSTRIALES PRINCIPALES NUMERO Y LOCAUZACION DE LOS ESTABLECIMIENT(S
PRINCIPAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS NUMBER AND LOCATION OF ESTABLISHMENTS
INTERNATIONAL ENGINEERING COMPANYINC
Cm it R 31 19 71
~~~~~~~~~ I r AI IF (TI- K 4R i
3 0 6
~0 0~ 0( 03
4 Pto5om Vil l ott
0 degsNdeg
0 D
C A R GU
C_ 0 C
FIG IA II
3
A INDUSTRIAS ESTACIONALES YOTRAS 0 SEASONAL AND OTHERS INDUSTRIES
0 S I0 IS 20 25 ESTABLECIMIENTOS NOTA EL DIAMETRO DE LOS CIRCULOSINOICA EL - I I I ESTABLISHMENTS NUMERO CE ESTABLECIMIENTOS
NOTE CIRCLE DIAMETER INDICATES NUMBER OF STABLISHME NTS
DESMOTADORAS BENEFICIOS DE CAFE
lt Cotton Gins Coffee Processing Plants
I- TRILLOS INGENIOS Threshors SugarMills
0 3 ASERRADEROS MATADEROS Y EMBUTIDOS Sawmills 6 Slaugherhouses and Canneries
3Z z
Q
FUENTE DIVISION DE ESTUDIOS ECONOMICOS Y ESTAshy0 DISTICAS DE ENALUF
Source Division of Economics and statistical Studies
of ENALUF
EMPRESA NACIONAL DE Y FUERZAMANAGUA LUZDN NICARAGUA
PLAN GENERAL DEDESARROLLONATIONAL POWER STUDY 19781988
INDUSTRIAS ESTACIONALES Y OTRAS NUMERO Y LOCALIZACION DE LOS
ESTABLECIMIENTOS SEASONAL AND OTHER INDUSTRIES
NUMBER ANC LOCATION OF ESTABLISHMENTS
A INTERNATIONALllkI( ENGINEERING COMPANYINC H AIJIAIIU
J 4
IEC-0 MAF I1975
5A I L(I- L I T IA3 NOWM
HONDURAS
A4 o A
J-
UAIAC
A A
L ) 0i4WA p
--shy t-
-
-
I
GRO
MA NArA ]]C
CS RC
FIG IA 12
-I
CASOD9 GRAIIAS A 060804 c
POLKA_ -- N o
14
11 L
0
--LEGEND
4o_ U AROCARIL I ( -
N C
u~r~~e ~PUERTO N AnUfff1utn 0 14 A110OPUERTO
DR BVEPIL~bAirport
I ) I GRA LHAYENT
V1
GENERAL DEDESARROLLONAIOSIAL POWER STUJDY9 f_---- -
PLAN 1978-1988
-- LOCALIZACION DE LAS FACILIDADES DE - -f1TRANSPORTES PRINCIPALES bull l)Q L -1 LOCATION OF PRINCI PAL TRANSPORTATION
-_iFACILITIESL_ ) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ GNRLD 0-l~ ric MAI~R 1 197598~ ~ ~ ~ -PA EAROLAINLP
INTER ANAL ENGINEERING COMPANYINC F ~2-LOCATIONIC OFPRINCIPATRASOTTO
AC0FF U1r 1 fT O 1 II6A1I A21 10ST( II
APENDICE I - B
RESULTADOS DEL COMPUTADOR TABLAS Y FIGURAS
RELACIONADOS A LA PROYECCION DE CARGA
APPENDIX I - B
COMPUTER PRINTOUT TABLES AND FIGURE
RELATING TO LOAD FORECAST
INTENTIONALLY LEFT
BLANK
APPENDIX IB
LIST OF COMPfUTER PRINTOUT SHEETS
(TREND) SERIES - TREND SELECTION FOR SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION OF LOAD DATA
SHEET IB 1 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR - LOAD ZONE 1 (MANAGUA)SHEET IB2 COMMERCIAL SECTOR - LOAD ZONE 1 (MANAGUA)SHEET IB3 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR - LOAD ZONE 1 (MANAGUA)SHEET IB4 GOVERNMENT SECTOR - LOAD ZONE I (MANAGUA)SHEET IB5 PUBLIC LIGHTING SECTOR - LOAD ZONE 1 (MANAGUA)SHEET tB6 IRRIGATION SECTOR - LOAD ZONE 1 (MANAGUA) SHEET IB7 PUMPING SECTOR - LOAD ZONE I (MANAGUA) SHEET IB8 WHOLESALE - LOAD ZONE 19 (COERDRI)
(REGEX) SERIES - HISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION AND SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION
SHEET IB9 LOAD ZONE I (MANAGUA) SHEET IB 10 LOAD ZONE 2 (XOLOTLAN SUR)SHEET IB11 LOAD ZONE 3 (XOLOTLAN OESTE)SHEET IB12 LOAD ZONE 4 (LEON) SHEET IB13 LOAD ZONE 5 (LEON RURAL)SHEET IB 14 LOAD ZONE 6 (CHINANDEGA-CORINTO) SHEET IB15 LOAD ZONE 7 (CHICHIGALPA - POSOLTEGA) SHEET 1B16 LOAD ZONE 8 (CONODER) SHEET IB17 LOAD ZONE 9 (HASAYA) SHEET IB18 LOAD ZONE 10 (CARAZO NORTE) SHEET IB19 LOAD ZONE 11 (GRANADA) SHEET IB20 LOAD ZONE 12 (MATAGALPA OESTE) SHEET IB21 LOAD ZONE 13 (MANAGUA - COSTA DE CARAZO) SHEET IB22 LOAD ZONE 14 (JINOTEGA SUR)SHEET IB23 LOAD ZONE 15 (XOLOTLAN ESTE)SHEET 1924 LOAD ZONE 16 (NUEVA SEGOVIA - MADRIZ- ESTELI) SHEET IB25 LOAD ZONE 17 (ESTELI)SHEET IB26 LOAD ZONE 18 (COERAM) SHEET IB27 LOAD ZONE 19 (COERDRI)
(Z0NL0D) SERIES - LONG-RANGE LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY FORECASTS
SHEET IB28 LOAD ZONE 1 (MANAGUA) SIWET IB29 LOAD ZONE 2 (XOLOTLAN SUR) SHEET IB30 LOAD ZONE 3 (XOLOTLAN OESTE)SHEET IB31 LOAD ZONE 4 (LEON)SHEET IB32 LOAD ZONE 5 (LEON RURAL)SHEET IB33 LOAD ZONE 6 (CHINANDEGA - CORINTO) SHEET 1834 LOAD ZONE 7 (CHICHIGALPA - POSOLTEGA) SHEET IB35 LOAD ZONE 8 (CONODER) SHEET IB36 LOAD ZONE 9 (MASAYA) SHEET IB37 LOAD ZONE 10 (CARAZO NORTE) SHEET IB38 LOAD ZONE 11 (GRANADA) SHEET IB39 LOAD ZONE 12 (MATAGALPA OESTE)SHEET IB40 LOAD ZONE 13 (MANAGUA - COSTA DE CARAZO)
SHEET IB41 LOAD ZONE 14 (JINOTEGA SUR)SHEET IB42 LOAD ZONE 15 (XOLOTLAN ESTE)SHEET IB43 LOAD ZONE 16 (NUEVA SEGOVIA - MADRIZ - ESTELI)SHEET IB44 LOAD ZONE 17 (ESTELI) SHEET IB45 LOAD ZONE 18 (COERAM) SHEET IB46 LOAD ZONE 19 (COERDRI)SHEET IB47 LOAD ZONE 20 (ELECTRIFICACION RURAL DE MATAGALPA)SHEET IB48 LOAD ZONE 21 (ELECTRIFICACION RURAL DE RAMA)SHEET 7B49 LOAD ZONE 22 (ELECTRIFICACION RURAL MANAGUA - LEON)SHEET 1B50 LOAD ZONE 23 (ELECTRIFICACION RURAL CARAZO)SHEET IB51 LOAD ZONE 24 (ELECTRIFICACION RURAL JINOTEGA)
(SINL0D) FORECAST OF TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND GROSS ENERGY GENERATION
SHEET IB52 SUMMARY FOR INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM SERVICE AREA
TABLES
TABLE lB 1 HISTORICAL RECORD FOR ENALUF INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM SERVICE AREA
TABLE IB2 HISTORICAL TREND OF SYSTEM ENERGY LOSSES AND COMPANY USAGE
FIGURE
FIGURE IB1 SYSTEM ENERGY LOSSES AND COMPANY USAGE AS PERCENTAGE OF ENERGY SALES AND GROSS GENERATION
APPENDIX IB
SAMPLE
PROGRAM (TREND) PRINTOUT
TREND SELECTION
FOR
SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION
OF
LOAD DATA
FOR
LOAD ZONES 1 AND 19
- - - - -- - -- -- - - - ------------------------
lB 1
TREND SELECTION FOR SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION OF HISTORICAL LOAD DATA
SECTOR RESIDENTIAL LOAD ZONE 1
HISTORICAL ENERGY SALES
YEAR MWH 1967 583227 1968 67291o5 1969 792086 1970 8164007 1971 859372 1972 937565 197J 00 1974 79269s3
COEFFICIENTS OF TREND EQUATIONS
EX P1 P2 P3 P4 PFA 630540 631982 420288 508741 341252 604146a 10 355amp0 163062 70099 324047 01C -14300 10209 -104633D -1807 17868E -1121
SE 85504 80557 284605 23012 17859 62966CC 06863 07283 09702 09806 09883 08445
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 976260 951757 729513 649130
453214 9318931976 1024850 987288 620867 423446 -223718 9514621977 1075859 1022818 483620 109745 -1385305 96951o91978 1129406 1058349 317771 -302814 -3206845 9863021979 1185618 1093879 123322 -825077 -5890531 1001998
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
1968 1537 1969 1770 1970 307 1971 526 1972 909 1973 10000 1974 0001975 2315 2006 -797 -1811 -4282 17561976 497 373 -1489 -3476 -14936 2091977 4s97 3o59 -22o10 -7408 51921 1891978 497 3s47 -34929 -37592 13149 1731979 497 335 -6119 17247 83o68 159
NOTE EX = EXPONENTIAL PN N-TH DEGREE POLYNOMIAL PF a POWER FUNCTIONSE a STANDARD ERROR CC = CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
----------
-------------------
1
IB2
TREND SELECTION FOR SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION OF HISTORICAL LOAD DATA
SECTOR COMMERCIAL LOAD ZONE
HISTORICAL ENERGY SALES -- 0nOe-
YEAR MWH 1967 307401 1968 350853 1969 39892o4 1970 441606 1971 489250 1972 534828 1973 00 1974 474021
COEFFICIENTS OF TREND EQUATIONS
A B C
EX 314345
10
P1 3087994 28804
P2 208906 88980 -6747
P3 305563 -12606 20036
P4 23013s6 101760 -31685
PF 304793
02
D -1974 6886 E -504
SE 46050 40594 19584 6936 2381 31086CC 08198 08632 09698 099962 09995 09222
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS a-a--- ----------------------- ------- ------- 0 01975 593945 56803s2 463166 375323 287081 5417081976 637456 596836 4239460 208200 -83283 556855
1977 684156 625640 371218 -3734o5 -710716 5709211978 73427s6 654444 305001 -373163 1681132 584073 1979 788068 683248 22528o9 -811104 -309256o3 596438
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES o-------- maa--a-----e--------a ---- 00Oao
1968 1413 1969 1370 1970 1069 1971 1078 1972 931 1973 10000 1974 000 1975 2529 1983 -228 -2082 -39e43 14271976 732 507 -8o46 -4452 -12901 2791977 732 482 -1243 -11793 75336 252 1978 732 460 -1783 89923 13654 230 1979 732 440 -2613 11735 8395 211
NOTE EX w EXPONENTIAL PN N-TH DEGREE POLYNOMIAL PF a POWER FUNCTION SE STANnA~RM Po~nP rr - rrinnrI AtPr~
1
IB3
TREND SELECTION FOR SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION OF HISTORICAL LOAD DATA
SECTOR INDUSTRIAL LOAD ZONE
HISTORICAL ENERGY SALES -------- ---- a
YEAR MWH 1967 531030 1968 903375 1969 1055135 1970 1332920 1971 1367186 1972 1547915 1973 00 1974 109334s5
COEFPICIENT6 OF TREND EQUATIONS dO- - a _ M_ - M gba a a~
A EX
589189 P1
4784599 P2
328996 P3
72391 P4
25687 PF
558663 B C
11 182127 272169 -10096
541863 -81203
612655 -113209
05
D 5243 10725 E 3192
SE 16100o7 81695 61992 38452 38239 53748 CC 09327 09831 09903 09962 0o9963 09927
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 2531557 2117604 1960692 2193909 2139361 2022480 1976 2976705 2299731 2041025 2613794 2433585 2151178 1971 350012deg8 2481858 2101166 3185861 2769518 22746411978 4115589 2663985 2141112 3941568 3132811 2393530 1979 4839273 2846113 2160866 4912375 3501619 2508379
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES -- - n n n-------------------------- n
1968 7011 1969 1679 1970 2632 1971 257 1972 1321 1973 10000 1974 000 1975 3370 1184 3e55 1587 1299 682 1976 1758- 860 409 1913 1375 636 1977 1758 791 294 2188 1380 5731978 1758 733 190 2372 1311 522 1979 1758 683 092 2462 1177 4s79
NOTE EX EXPONENTIAL PN a N-TH DEGREE POLYNOMIAL PF POWER FUNCTION SE = STANDARD ERROR CC x CORRELATION COFFFICIFNT
--------------- ------------------------
IB4
TREND SELECTION FOR SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION OF HISTORICAL LOAD DATA
SECTOR GOVERNMENT LOAD ZONE 1
HISTORICAL ENERGY SALES n---------- -- --
YEAR MWH 1967 1236696 1968 159578 1969 184406 1970 189512 1971 221768 1972 254237 1973 00 1974 177365
COEFFICIENTS OF TREND EQUATIONS ----------- m------nf i
EX P1 P2 P4P3 PF A 141532 142301 63468 129794 1451 132469 B 10 10842 58334 -11375 183221 02 C -532s5 13053 -74950 D -135o5 13722 E -859
SE 34739 32916 17201 11746 3794 28681 CC 095628 06217 09124 09601 09959 097309
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 24759o4 239880 157117 96838 -53302 235378 1976 26346o8 250722 114269 -33774 -529726 241957 1977 280359 261564 60769 -219591 -1365317 2480661978 298334 272406 -3381 -468745 -269422o2 253778 1979 317460 283248 -78182 -789367 -457121s6 259148
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES ~-m- -ma --- nn an-- ------- M-maa-- -- -nn---n -n -- -shy
1968 2903 1969 1555 1970 2s76 1971 17902 1972 1464 1973 -10000 1974 000 1975 3959 3524 -1141 -4540 -13005 3270 1976 641 451 -27o27 -13487 89380 279 1977 1978
641 641
432 414
-46981 -105956
55017 11346
157s74 9733
252 230
1979 641 398 221234 68s39 7337 211
NOTE EX = EXPONENTIAL PN N-TH DEGREE POLYNOMIAL PF - PO4ER FUNCTION SE = STANDARD ERROR CC = CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
----------------------
-------------------
-- --------------- --------------
1
IB5
TREND SELECTION FOR SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION OF HISTORICAL LOAD DATA
SECTOR PUBLIC LTG
HISTORICAL ENERGY SALES
YEAR MWH 1967 330290 1968 39060 1969 45609 1970 55301 1971 60671 1972 68813 1973 00 1974 83082
COEFFICIENTS OF TREND EQUATIONS -
EX P1 P2 P3 A 30352 25038 25433 27136 B 11 7251 7013 5223 C 2o6 498 D -3o4 E
SE 2749 837 825 759 CC 09875 09988 09988 09990
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS M -- -shy
1975 100613 90299 90713 8916o6 1976 114943 97550 98233 94433 1977 131314 104802 105807 98610 1978 150017 112053 113433 101487 1979 171383 119304 121113 102857
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES - -- -- ------shy m------- - -
1968 1829 1969 1676 1970 2125 1971 971 1972 1341 1973 -10000 1974 000 1975 2110 868 9e18 732 1976 1424 803 8s28 5amp90 1977 1424 7o43 770 442 1978 14924 691 720 291 1979 1424 647 6o77 134
NOTE
LOAD ZONE
P4 30881 -455 3066 -474
2o5
686 09992
93548 1089008 13204v9 166439 216151
PF 30304
04
3473 09800
80966 84873 88569 920894 95440
1259 -254 1641 482 21o24 435 2604 396 2986 364
EX = EXPONENTIAL PN N-TH DEGREE POLYNOMIAL9 PF = POWER FUNCTION SE = STANDARD E0ROR CC = CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
---------------------------------------- - -------------------------
--------- --------------------- -- -- --- -- - ---
1
IB6
TREND SELECTION FOR SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION OF HISTORICAL LOAD DATA
SECTOR IRRIGATION LOAD ZONE
HISTORICAL ENERGY SALES
YEAR MWH 1967 9247 1968 11264 1969 9893 1970 11823 1971 15574 1972 21834 1973 00 1974 27099
COEFFICIENtS OF TREND EQUATIONS
EX P1 P2 P3 P4 PF A B C
7213 11
4286 2645
9290 -368 338
13548 -4843 1517
-367 16255 -8024
7657 04
D -86 1547 E -93
SE Cc
1730 09669
2316 09399
1480 09759
1241 09831
293 09990
3407 08647
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 31061 28099 33352 29483 13203 22723 1976 3653o2 30745 39406 29903 -23872 23940 1977 42965 33390 46137 28139 -96090 2509s6 1978 50533 36036 53543 236699 -217637 26201 1979 59432 38682 61625 15971 -404935 272690
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES -
1968 2181 - -- shy
1969 -12s17 1970 1950 1971 31972 1972 4019 1973 -10000 1974 000 1975 1462 369 2307 879 -5127 -16e14 1976 1761 941 1815 142 -28080 5o35 1977 1761 860 17907 -589 30251 483 1978 1761 7o92 1605 -1588 126949 440 1979 1761 734 1509 -32o52 86o05 404
NOTE EX = EXPONENTIAL PN = N-TH DEGREE POLYNOMIAL PF = POWER FUNCTION SE - STANDARD ERROR CC = CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
----- --- ------
IB7
TREND SELECTION FOR SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION OF HISTORICAL LOAD DATA
SECTOR PUMPING LOAD ZONE 1
HISTORICAL ENERGY SALES -
YEAR MWH 1967 84137 1968 97371 1969 97331 1970 111343 1971 135391 1972 167468 1973 00 1974 206598
COEFFICIENtS OF TREND EQUATIONS
EX Pi P2 P3 P4A 70690 54389 79628 9798o2 PF
41957 7326o2a 11 17893 2688 -16600 68345 04 1704 6790 -31625D -3794 6206
t -376 SE 7087 1086a1 610s2 5014 1257 18757cC 09872 09697 09905 09936 09995 09067
PROJECtED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS4- - 0aaft nnn -- - ann -a - ana--a--shy a---- shy1975 233724 215430 241927
aa
225248 159708 1827941976 266937 233324 277010 236046 19551 1909861977 304870 251217 315503 237926 -262210 1987131978 24819o2 269111 35740s6 22H637 -742838 20604o01979 397672 287004 402719 205929 -1488594 21301ob
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES a-mbaf -_ an -
1968 a_ a an
1572 - - _- a-n-n-i -aa - - - -nn nn
1969 -004 1970 1439 1971 2159 1972 2369 1973 -100000 1974 000 1975 1313 4a27 1710 902 -2269 -11521976 1421 830 1450 4s79 -87o75 41971 1421 1978
766 1389 079 -144113 441421 712 1328 -3w9O 18329 3681979 1421 6o64 1267 -993 10039 338
NOTE EX = EXPONENTIAL PN = N-TH DEGREE POLYNOMIAL PF = POWER FUNCTIONSE = STANCARD ERROR CC = CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
--------- -----
---------------------------------------- ---------- -----------
IB8
TREND SELECTION FOR SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION OF HISTORICAL LOAD DATA
SECTOR WHOLESALE LOAD ZONE 19
HISTORICAL ENERGY SALES
YEAR MWH shy
1967 21113 1966 2414o6 1969 284198 1970 48063 1971 59594 1972 98787 1973 116428 1974 106431
COEFFIcIENts OF TREND EQUATIONS ~ mf_a--------------------- -------
A s
EX 1495o5
13
P1 -576o7 15253
P2 4365 9173
P3 53280 -41718
P4 -2650 40477
PF 15238
09
0 675 14016
-988 -21807
4942 -329
SE 14662 11615 11133 6409 3618 13866Cc 09271 09549 09586 0m9864 09957 09350
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 178501 131512 --- a-a
14164o4 92727 36816 1153231976 235120 146765 163652 49513 -130652 1270761977 309698 162018 187011 -24960 -441214 1387371978 407931 177271 211721 -136623 -948245 1503141979 537323 19252o5 237782 -29140amp4 -1713027 161816
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
199 1436 1971 1769 1973 6912 1975 2399 1977 6576 1979 1785 1981 -8081983 67071 2356 3308 -1287 -6540 8351985 3171 1159 1553 -4660 -45487 10191987 31071 1039 1427 -15041 23770 91731711989 941 1321 44736 11491 8341991 3171 860 1230 11329 8065 765
NOTE EX = EXPONENTIAL PN = N-TH DEGREE POLYNOMIAL PF = PWER FUNCTIONSE = STANDARb ERROR CC = CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
APPENDIX IB
PROGRAM (REGEX) PRINTOUT
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION
AND
SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION
FOR
LOAD ZONES 1-19
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION AND SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION FOR rALUF LOAD ZONE SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CENTERS ll 12 13 LOAD ZONE 1
YEAR RESIDENTIAL
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH -------
COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING
TOTAL
RETAIL SALES
TOTAL WHOLESALE
ENERGY
TOTAL
ENERGY SALES
ACTUAL HISTORICAL VALUES
1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
583227 672915 792056 8164U7 85937o2 937565
00 792693
307401 350853 398924 441606 489250 534828
00 474021
53103o0 903375
1055135 1332923 1367186 1547915
00 1893345
123666 159578 184406 189512 221768 254237
00 177365
1302deg0 3906o0 4560e9 55301 60671 68813
00 83082
9247 L24 9893
11823 15574 21834
00 27099
84137 97371 97331 111343 135391 167468
00 206598
1671732 2234419 2583387 2958918 3149215 353266o2
00 3654205
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
167173o2 223-1o9 2583387 2958918 3149215 3532662
00 3654205
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS
A B C D E
P1 63198328 3553052
0000 0000 0000
P1 30879546 2880407
0000 0000 0000
P4 2507924
61356o562 -11361539
1079417 -31619
PF 13246925
0o261 0000 0000 0000
Pi 2503923 725118
0000 0000 0000
P2 929105 -36o875 33803 0000 0000
P2 7962908 268882 170492
0000 0000
0000 00000 0000 0000 0000
H
deg
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS __m---------------------------------shy1975 951757 568032 2138705 235380 1976 987288 59683o6 2431398 241958 1977 1022818 625640 2764442 248068 1978 1058349 654444 3122918 253780 1979 1093880 683248 348432a5 259150
90299 97551 104802 112053 119304
33353 39407 46137 53543 61625
241927 277010 315502 357404 402716
4259455 4671448 5127410 561249ol 6104248
00 00 00 00 00
4259455 4671448 5127410 5612491 6104248
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES -- a -- - - - - - ----------- ----shy
1968 1537 1413 7011 2903 1969 1770 1370 1679 1555 1970 307 1069 2632 276 1971 526 1078 257 1702 1972 909 931 1321 1464 1973 -10000 -10000 -10000 -100On 1974 0000 000 000 0OL 1975 2006 1983 125 3270 1976 373 507 1368 279 1977 359 482 1369 252 1978 347 460 1296 230 1979 335 440 1157 21
1829 1676 2124 971
1341 -10000
000 868 803 743 691 647
2180 -1217 1951 3172 40019
-10000 000
2307 1815 1707 1605 159
1572 -004 1439 2159 2369
-10000 000 1710 1450 1389 1328 1267
3365 1561 1453 643
1217 -10000
000 1656 967 976 946 876
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
3365 1561 1453 643 1217
-10000 000 1656 967 976 946 876
NOTE EX - EXPONENTIAL PN a POLYNOMIAL N-TH DEGREE PF = POWER FUNCTION
------ -- -----
-------------
----------------------------- --- ---
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION AND SHORTIGE EXTNAPQATON FOR ENALF LOAD ZONE SUPPLIEDFQ47I LTERCGNNECTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD CENTERS 21 2e2 23
LOAD ZONE 2
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH - TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL RETAILINDUSTRIAL GOVERV4ENT PUBLIC LTG WHOLESALE ENERGYIRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
-e----ACTUAL HISTORICAL VALUES - ---
1967 5464 833 2336 56 185 3881 135o4 141121968 7054 00 1411297s3 2292 207 231 603s21969 6554 2157 3067 396 802 17594 00 17594278 82021970 14995 221527124 3886 00 221523874 681 370 91461971 7160 3893 6480
2500 2758o4 000 275d41140 307 12117 21341972 7R66 3405 33234 00 332349633 1428 417 18099 31381973 13523 43987 003466 9316 1435 383 4398o719437 29691974 14132 4479 11577 50532 00 505321582 412 26637 4535 63357 00 63357
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS
EX PF P2 P2 PFA 465161 77705 P4 P3123amp910 -35683 18383 131331 92730B 1132 0873 42o875 32e126 0399 0000
321540 15758C 0000 0000 000011387 -0873 0000 -67698 1217D 0000 0000 0000 00000000 0000 12127 0o258E 0000 000000000 0000 0000 0000 -0476 0000 0000
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EOUATIONS-
1975 14263 5295 14321 --
1826 442 32581 52191976 1615a4 73950 005806 16914 739501981 461 39422 63101977 18296 87050 00 870506310 1973e4 2119 479 46461 7580 1009811978 20721 6808 22782 2239 495 00 1009801
53227 90461979 2346o9 115322 00730ol 11532226058 2342 512 59132 10722 129538 00 129538
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
1968 2909 1681 -187 26699 25121969 5538 -4074 2467 000-707 12156 3380 9127 24672018 35971970 86o35 25o90869 8015 000 259026o27 7207 3292 1151 6722 24521971 050 0019 000 24526728 6726 -17s131972 32o47 -1463 2048984 -1255 48o64 2524 000 20483583 49o36 4703 32351973 7191 000 32o35178 -329 053 -8011974 7s39 -537 14987 000450 2923 14872427 1021 7o55 37041975 092 1821 2370
5269 25s38 000 25381543 714 2231 15091976 1325 1671 000963 16711810 849 429 2099 2089 17711977 1325 868 0000 17711667 695 388 1785 20131978 1325 1600 000 1600789 1544 567 353 1456 19331979 1325 1420 000724 14201437 458 324 1109 1853 1232 000 1232
NOTE EX - EXPONENTIAL PN - POLYNOMIAL N-TH DEGREE 9 PF - POWER FUNCTION
------ ------ ------ ------- -- ------ -- ------------ ---------
-----------------------------
-- -- -- -- --------------
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION AND SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONE SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CENTERS 3l 32 3o3 3o4 35 LOAD ZONE 3
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH --- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGYIRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
-
ACTUAL HISTORICAL VALUES e--- --------shy
1967 568a8 26 3701 38n4 488 312 189 10791 00 107911968 742s9 127 5480 3Lo9 574 5878 200 20009 00 200091969 9259 199 5582 117 502 14562 910 31134 00 311341970 9170 310 5212 166 424 15172 262 30718 00 307181971 10107 1572 4541 280 749 36157 37a7 53786 00 537d61972 11296 1422 5066 360 1097 73998 500 93742 00 937421973 1503s5 1771 22299 543 1332 69929 614 111527 00 1115271974 16855 224m6 41194 2535 1558 70304 55o6 135250 00 135250
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS
EX P2 P2 P2 EX P1 PiA 533o343 -26226 1652161 125135 33243 -1829060 26245 0000B 1151 15256 -990073 -74211 1198 1201779 4s199 0000C 0000 2099 155555 10497 0000 00000 0000 0000D 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000E 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 18927 -
2811 5341e4 307s5 1700 89869 640 17043t4 00 1704351976 21787 336m2 73069 4327 2038 101887 682 20715co 00 2071551977 25079 3956 95835 5789 244s4 113905 724 247735 Dec 2477351978 28869 4591 121712 7462 2930 125922 766 292255 00 2922551979 33232 5269 150700 9344 3513 137940 808 340808 00 340808
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES ----------------------- m-- --shy
1968 3058 37501 48amp07 -1691 1743 178294 602 8541 000 85411969 2463 5718 185 -6318 -1242 14771 35346 5559 000 55591970 -095 5524 -662 4163 -1558 418 -71o21 -133 000 -1331971 1021 40654 -1285 6841 7669 13831 4410 7509 000 75091972 11o76 -9s54 1155 2848 4631 10465 3262 74928 000 74281973 3309 2457 34013 5084 2143 -549 2282 1897 000 18971974 1210 2675 8472 36625 1695 053 -954 2127 000 21271975 1229 25s17 2966 2127 915 2782 1512 2601 000 26011976 1511 1961 36s79 40amp72 1988 13937 655 2154 000 21541977 1511 1764 3115 3379 1988 1179 6o15 1958 000 19511978 1511 1606 27900 2888 1988 1055 5s79 1797 0000 17971979 1511 1475 2381 2522 1988 9amp54 547 1661 000 1661
NOTE EX EXPONENTIAL PN = POLYNOMIAL N-TH DEGREE 9 PF POWER FUNCTION
-- -------------------- - --- ------- ------- - ------- -------- -------------- ----
--- -------------------------------------------------
--- ------------------------------------------
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION AND SJORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZOJNE SUPPLLZ FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CENTERS 41 LOAD ZONE 4
------------ RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH --------- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGY
YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT IRRIGATIONPUBLIC LTG PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
ACTUAL HISTORICAL VALUES
1967 4617amp8 178499 97365 15398 8462 25 shy 00 171419 00 1714191968 46009 21215 105639 4676 8539 691 00 186772 00 18677o2 1969 49502 19905 96083 7541 8069 60151367 188485 00 188485 1970 55684 32567 85696 10053 8459 13303 9115 214880 00 214801971 6420o3 6943o5 54845 13260 9375 19257 10159 240537 00 24053o7 1972 70721 7148amp4 70233 1275s9 10864 27650 1256o4 27627o8 00 276278 1973 86828 82055 83810 15221 10942 2264o8 15823 317330 00 317330 1974 95609 77987 123074 17161 11375 20208 1725o4 362671 00 362671
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS
P3 PF P4 P3 P2P1 P3 A 4978037 1300189 4385808 -310926 727o691 -1242807 18472 0000 B -562761 0864 8075357 494687 49o652 854583 185e006 00000 C 208023 0000 -3191395 -51629 0000 -50s525 6655 0000 D -8123 0000 4059198 2o648 0000 00000 -0347 0000 E 0000 0000 -14616 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 108411 86819 180509 18899 11745 23558 19693 449637 00 44963e7 1976 1202903 95095 250318 21214 1224o2 22504 2186s6 5435395 00 543535 1977 13146o2 103259 323727 24084 1273o8 20440 2396e4 63967o6 00 63967o6 1978 14143o0 11132o2 388212 27671 13235 17365 25965 725202 00 72520s2 1979 149709 119295 427744 32131 13731 13279 27850 783742 00 783742
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
1968 -036 1885 849 20396 090 266275 000 8e95 000 895 1969 7o59 -617 -904 6124 -5050 9790 000 091 000 0091 1970 1248 6361 -108Z 3331 483 872o45 5153 14600 000 14O1971 1529 11320 -3600 3189 1083 4476 1145 1194 000 1194 1972 IC15 295 2805 -377 1587 4358 23o67 1485 000 14851973 22o77 1478 1933 1929 071 -1808 25s93 1485 000 1485 1974 1011 -495 4684 1274 395 -1077 904 1428 000 1428 1975 1338 1132 4666 10o12 325 1657 1413 2397 000 2397 1976 1096 953 3867 1224 422 -4947 1103 2088 000 2088 1977 928 858 2932 1353 405 -917 959 1768 000 17681978 758 7P0 1991 1489 389 -1504 835 1337 000 1337 1979 585 716 1018 1611 3o75 -23amp52 725 807 000 8907
NOTE EXPONENTIAL PN POLYNCMIAL N-TH DEGREE PF -EX = POWER FUNCTION
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION AND SHORT-RJA45 FXTRAPOJLrrON F= EXALUF L= 1 ICSUPPL D FROM ItrERtNRMECTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD CENTERS 51 52
LOAD ZONE 5
YEAR
------------- RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH ---
RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMb-tT PUBLIC LTG IRPIGATION PUMPING
TOTALRETAIL
SALES
TOTALWHOLESALE
ENERGY
TOTALENERGY
SALES
ACTUAL HISTORICAL VALUES
1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
752 1757 225o3 2186 2420 2669 4390 4977
345 66o9 107w5 1030 1313 1546 1555 1606
243 414 429 00
943 7028 2431 13871
18 2s7 22 6s3 131 119 243 20s8
19 175 543 45o8 567 984 717 613
00 00 00 00
601 624 623
11551
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
1380 3044 4325 3739 5978 12973 9961
32829
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
1380 3044 4325 3739 5978 12973 9961
32829
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS
A B C D
E
P1 30744 52o638 0000 0000
0COO
PF 38783 0739 0000 0000
0000
P2 299133
-242085 43558 0000
0000
P1 -4415 3302 0000 0000
0000
P1 6589 9873 0000 0000
0000
Pi -1799986 328461
0000 0000
0000
0000 0000 00000 0000
0000
0000 0000 0000 0000
0000
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS ----1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
--------
5044 5571 6097 6624 7150
---------------------shy1968 2128 2283 2435 2583
16485 22341 29067 36665 45133
253 286 319 352 385
954 1053 1151 1250 1349
11561 4G46 Id13oO 21415 24700
00 00 00 00 00
36268 46226 57050 68742 81302
oo 060 00 00 00
36268 46226 57050 68742 81302
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
13350 2821 -297 1067 1031 6443 1337 135
1043 944 863 7o94
9393 6064 -421 2747 1776 056 330
2252 810 730 664 6o09
7005 364
-10000 000
64518 -6540 47053 1884 3551 3010 2613 2309
4547 -16s20 18039 10777 -977 10491 -1441 2119 1304 1154 1034 937
78381 20919 -1563 2373 73o45
-2713 -1450 5561 1034 937 857 789
000 000 000 000 372
-022 175410
0o09 2840 2212 1811 1533
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
12060 4206
-1354 5987 11700 -2321 22956 1047 2745 2341 2049 1827
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
12060 4206
-1354 5987 11700 -2321 22956 1047 2745 2341 2049 1827
NOTE EX - EXPONENTIAL PN = POLYNOMIAL N-TH DEGREE PF POWER FUNCTION
---------- --------------
- --------------------------
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION AND SHORT-RGE ETRAPOLA T10O FOR EampALUF LOAD ZOME SJPPLIED FROM ITERCONNECTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD CENTERS 61 62 6amp3
LOAD ZONE 6
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH ---------------- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL RETAILINDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES
WHOLESALE ENERGYENERGY SALES
ACTUAL HISTORICAL VALUES
1967 3487 00 8284e7 63 00 11639 96 99024 102489 2015131968 4340 00 1195Z7 195 00 9756 1304 135124 109966 2450911969 4431 34 13C8196 195 1970
00 15796 1197 152470 124270 2767405156 480 102715 325 01 10771 485 119935 123422 2433571971 6228 3990 128963 690 02 145631972 6619 413 154852 130374 2852263914 135601 853 041973 26493 42amp0 173906 147665 3215717026 3969 135573 647 27 3434 1574 152253 167354 3196071974 7034 452s4 201030 653 29 426o4 2863 220398 187705 40810e4
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS
PF P1 P2 P1 P1 PF P2A 332624 -234197 10425283 -1476 -3594 P2
1499284 233674 10518710B 0363 93831 -3959C9 10393 0811 -0297 -95309 -559922C 0000 0000 169401 0000 0000 0000 12s187 133275D 0000 0000 00000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000E 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS -
1975 7387 6102 20583e6 920 a
3s71976 7802 3631 231718 208107 439825767amp5 7041 234063 1024 4a5 756o2 4993 262406 232870 4952761977 7946 7979 265678 1128 53 7350 6600 296737 260299 5570361978 8201 8917 300681 123o2 61 7163 8450 334708 290393 6251011979 8443 9856 339073 1336 69 6994 105494 3763197 323153 699470
HISTORMCAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
1968 2445 000 4427 20565 000 -16amp17 32301969 208 3645 729 21e62000 944 003 000 6190 -819 12831970 1637 1300 1291130444 -2148 6666 000 -3180 -5947 -2133 -068 -12061971 2078 73100 2555 11231 9272 3520 -14o77 29111972 627 5s63 1720-190 514 2358 9339 8191 151 1230 1326 12741973 615 140 -002 -2404 56975 -8703 27483 -1245 13331974 -061011 1397 4828 083 568 24e15 8186 44o75 12916 27681975 501 3489 2s39 4091 2789 8298 2681 5131976 1086 7s77390 1537 1371 1128 21s871977 -308 37a52 1324 1189 1260352 1332 1350 1014 1794 -279 3216 1308 11771978 321 12m461175 1317 9amp20 1521 -255 2803 1279199 1156 1221294 1C52 1276 843 1320 -235 24o77 1243 1128 1189
NOTE EX EXPONENTIAL PN = POLYNOMIAL N-TH DEGREE PF POWER FUNCTION
--------
-----------------
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION AND SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONE SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD cEpiTERS 71 7Z
LOAD ZONE 7
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGYIRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES n f-
-
ACTUAL HISTORICAL VALUES
1967 3528 1815 23628 516 91021968 5937o6 908 89876 00 898764555 1896 31624 383 952 82225 104 121741 00 1217411969 5065 1601 43371 2400 666 70331 108 121384 00 1213b41970 5797 1700 49298 287 832 80062 659 13863o7 00 1386371971 6539 1559 59808 2607 11005 85783 1399 156464 00 15646o41972 7494 1854 56039 433 1973
1204 82959 1347 15133o4 00 1513349619 2828 63488 476 1129 93145 1150 171839 000 1718391974 11056 3557 76736 490 1198 101369 1340 195751 00 195751
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS
P2 P2 EX P2 EX EX P1A 360702 256460 2408537 61983 75884 6216791 -20850 000008 11865 -63144 1163 -15678 1059 1060 21885 00000C 10063 9327 0000 1854 00000 0000 0000 0000D 0000 0000 0000 0o000 0000 0000 0000 00000 E 0000 0000 0000 0o000 0000 0000 0000 0000
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 12826 4437 93831 ---
710 1976 14857
1272 105453 1761 220293 00 220293557o8 109137 906 1347 1118300 1980 245637 OeO 2456371977 17089 6905 126938 1138 1427 118593 2198 274292 00 2742921978 19522 8419 147644 1408 1511 12576o5 2417 306689 00 3066891979 22157 10120 171727 1715 1601 133370 2636 343327 00 343327
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
1968 2910 4s49 3384 -2589 438 3848 579 3545 000 35451969 1120 -1558 3714 -3729 -3003 -1446 320 -029 000 -0291970 1443 618 1366 1956 2489 1383 5107 1421 0001971 14211280 -825 2131 -669 3277 714 11220 1285 000 12a51972 1461 1886 -630 6194 903 -3e29 -372 -327 000 -3271973 28o34 5256 1329 985 -624 1227 -14e60 1354 000 13541974 1494 2578 2086 293 612 882 1649 1391 000 13911975 1600 2471 22o27 4480 613 402 3135 12s53 000 12531976 1583 2571 1631 2751 591 604 1242 1150 000 11501977 1502 2379 1631 2566 591 604 1105 11661978 000 11661423 2192 1631 2368 591 604 9951979 1349 20o19 1631 2178 591 604 1181 000 11dl
905 1194 000 1124
NOTE EX u EXPONENTIAL PN z POLYNOMIAL N-TH DEGREE 9 PF u POWER FUNCTION
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION AND SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONE SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD CENTERS C 0 N 0 D E R LOAD ZONE 8
RETAIL SECTORAL ENErGV CONSUMPTION - MWH -------- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERWMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING RETAIL SALES
WHOLESALE ENERGY
ENERGY SALES
-- - - --- ------- ---- l
ACTUAL HISTORICAL VALUES
1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
0000 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00
0 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00
00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
1595amp4 14500 13151 9986
11725 174165 274012 280441
15954 14500 13151 9986 11725
174165 274012 280441
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS
A B C D E
00000 0000 0000 0000 0000
00000 0000 0000 0000 0000
oood 0000 0000 0000 0000
0000 0000 0000 0000 0000
0 0 0000 0000 0000 OOOO
0000 0000 00000 0000 00000
0000 0000 0000 0000 0000
P1-9542283 4325893
00000 0000 0000
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
00 00 00 Oo 00
00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 000
00 OO Oo 00 1000
293907 337166 380425 423684 466943
293907 337166 380425 423684 466943
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES ~------ - -shy
1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
000 000 000 000 000 GOO 000 0CO 000 0600 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 OCO
-911 -930
-2406 1741
138531 5732 234 460 1471 1283 1137 1021
-911 -930 -2406 1741
138531 5732 234 480 1471 12e83 1137 1G21
NOTE EX - EXPONENTIAL 9 PN - POLYNOMIAL N-TH DEGREE v PF u POWER FUNCTION
----------------
------ -- ----- -- ------ --------- -- -- ----
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION AND SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONE SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD CENTERS 91 92 93 94 9695 97 98 99 910 LOAD ZONE 9
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH ---------- --- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGYIRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
-- -
ACTUAL IISTORICAL VALUES
1967 5798 129 1140 77 868 157 3105 1127amp 578951968 6613 69171116 87o2 113 5501969 8080 171 997 1807 46 3428 11741 58224 69966
1970 8869 242 746 64 4209 14465 67779 822441747 874 619 110 4720 17184 641291971 8949 81313224 1235 1204 4011972 9941 61 5318 17395 6140t6 78801271 1326 1864 1541
1973 14538 1659 63 6615 21623 83606 1052301282 905 1531
1974 15641 2148 65 8235 28218 101345 129563106 937 1348 68 8754 30404 119008 149412
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS
EX P2 P1 P1 P1 P2 PiA 501554 689943 990059 P2-5145 39224 15042 172392B 68028941146 -48919 6063 i8266 12416 -3053C 0000 840985 -8739498362 0000 0000 0000 0262 0000 188130D 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 00000E 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000
0000 0000 0000 0000
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 17220 3060 1536 1592 150091976 19750 4160
87 9372 34380 141759 1761391596 1775 16303 107 10222 392461977 22651 5427 1657 16876o4 2080101957 17581978 25979
131 11072 44656 199532 2441886861 1718 2140 1882 161 119221979 297995 50665 234062 2847288463 1778 2323 2006 196 12772 57335 272355 329691
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
1968 1405 -985 -2351 4567 -3663 -7011 1041 4121969 2230 4770 1434 056 1146553 3574 3816 22751970 2320 1640965 17544123 7520 36692 -1699 70831971 0090 1213 1879 -538 -113-743 -29030 3779 -3523 -4409 12671972 1108 123 -424 -3082078 741 54o77 283o83 292 24o39 24301973 3615 335346a24 51120 -336 -5141 -061 202 2449 30491974 2121 23127amp58 2944 1753 350 -11098 5051975 1C09 6o29 774 1742 15324246 195 6987 1198 2867 7061976 1307 19111469 3593 1788394 1147 1977 1469
822 2191 906 1415 19005 18093045 3v79 1028 7o59 2286 831 1378 18231978 1469 17392642 365 932 706 2258 767 1345 1701979 1469 16602334 352 853 659 2167 712 1316 1636 1579
NOTE EX aEXPONENTIAL PN - POLYNOMIAL N-TH DEGREE PF POWER FUNCTION
-- - --
----------------------------
--- --- -----------------
--- --------------------------
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION AND SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATIrO FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONE SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD CENTERS 101 102 103 104 105 106 LOAD ZONE 10
SRETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH -------------------- TOTAL TOTAL TOTALYEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGYINDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
-SALE
ACTUAL HISTORICAL VALUES
1967 3833 437 222o8 404 206 00 1939 9G48 45801 54t501968 4165 607 19609 337 185 601969 1819 9144 52453 615974816 1146 2274 51 514 86 21251970 5141 1239 372e7 11015 60534 71549135 543 129 2800 13717 75214 889311971 5578 1478 26Co4 385 537 87 3068 13739 75932 d96721972 5812 1478 2825 66o4 506 771973 3422 14788 84023 9us118638 1927 196o8 76amp7 534 211 3874 17922 111744 1296661974 9170 1952 3526 714 743 96 3906 20110 133296 1534j9
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS
EX P3 P3 P1 P1 P1 P2 P2A 322o791 -2s095 80553 8929 17788 5259 141458 47769598 1131 46o238 137985 7630 6521 1089 30213 -57241C 0000 -4o587 -30954 0000 0000 00000 0374 1369005D 00000 0242 2172 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000E 0000 0000 0000 0000 00000 0000 0000 0000
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 __c9834 219o5 3986 776 76o4 150 4436 2214s5 152782 1749271976 11130 2444 5371 852 830 161 4810 25601 17b050 2036521977 12597 2747 7441 928 895 172 5190 29973 206039 2360131978 14257 311o9 1032o5 1005
1979 960 183 5579 35430 236748 27217816136 3573 14154 1081 1025 194 5974 42140 270177 312318
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
1968 -1004 0000 -618 106 1452 1230 868 3874 -1161 -16o53
1969 1561 8880 1549 -8479 17728 4457 1683 20e45 15401970 675 1615812 6387 16289 573 49o72 31o75 2453 2425 24291971 848 19o28 -3011 18544 -112 -3272 9C55 016 095 0ampb31972 420 -002 846 7249 -5973 -1114 1155 762 10651973 10194861 3041 -3031 1544 543 17182 1321 2119 3299 31221974 616 128 7913 -691 3920 -54o43 082 1221 1928 18311975 724 1243 1304 861 285 5653 1357 1011 146 14321976 1317 1134 34o74 9B 852 723 841 1560 1653 16421977 1317 1239 38o52 895 785 674 791 1707 1571 158b91978 1317 1352 3875 821 728 6o311979 747 1820 149C 15321317 1457 3708 759 678 5o94 709 1894 1412 1474
NOTE EX orEXPONENTIAL PN -POLYNOMIAL N-TM DEGREE 9 PF POWER FUNCTION
e41STOrfCJ LOAV DATA REGRESSION AND 4ORT-RAX EXTRAPOLATIO FCR ENALUF LOAD ZONE SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED sYsrEM ZONE LOAD CENTERS 111 112 113 LL4
LOAD ZONE 11
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSrRrAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING
RETAIL SALES
WHOLESALE ENERGY
ENERGY SALES
ACTUAL IISTORICAL VALUES
1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
34636 39582 45461 48873 52726 56765 74810 81835
7291 1148m9 31431 30680 27660 30489 40313 46496
7477amp0 78215 80878 85050 9607s7 110834 110028 139993
673 1923 2111 2529 2935 3781 4875 4762
336o4 575o5 4797 5581 609s9 6491 7039 760s2
3300 3508 14677 742o6 9855
13653 14609 16121
7142 8897
11028 10406 12309 13075 16846 17242
131178 149371 190386 190547 207663 235090 268523 314054
00 00 000 00 00 00 00 00
131178 149371 190386 190547 20766e3 235090 268523 314054
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS
A B C D E
EX 3069011
1125 00000 0000 0000
Pi 612200 491323
0000 0000 0000
P2 7741812 -276329 125481 0000 0000
P1 33489 580094 0000 0000 0000
P1 360807 49629 0000 0000 00000
P1 26709 172156 0000 0000 0000
EX 680s778
1126 00000 0000 0000
0000 0000 0000 00000 0000
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
89060 100252 112851 127032 142996
50341 55254 60167 65080 69994
154188 175266 198854 224951 253558
5563 6144 6727 7306 7887
8074 8570 9067 9563
10059
18141 1986e2 21584 23305 25027
19960 2249o4 25350 28568 32195
345329 387845 434599 485809 541719
00 00 00 00 00
345329 387845 434599 485809 541719
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES --- - -- -- -
1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
1428 1485 750 788 7o65
3178 9o39 8s82
1256 12s56 1256 1256
575C 17357 -239 -984 1022 32o22 1533 826 9o75 889 816 754
460 340 515 1296 1535 -072 2723 1013 1367 1345 1312 1271
18544 975 1980 1604 2883 2892 -231 1681 1044 945 863 795
7106 -1663 1633 927 642 844 800 620 614 579 547 518
628 31840 -4940 3271 3853 700
1035 1252 948 8r66 797 738
2456 23o94 -563 1828 622
2884 234 1576 1269 12s69 1269 1269
1386 2745 008 898 1320 1422 1695 995
1231 1205 1178 1150
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
1386 2745 0008 898
1320 1422 1695 995 1231 1205 1178 1150
NOTE EX v EXPONENTIAL 9 PN - POLYNOMIAL N-TH DEGREE 9 PF - POWER FUNCTION
-- ---
--- -------------------------------
HISTORICAL LAD DATA REGRESSON AND SHSMF-RMGE EXTRA OLATION FOR EMALF LOAD ZOQN SUPPLEL FRO4 LNTERCGIhCTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD CENTERS 121 122 L23 3Z4 1
LOAD ZONiE 12
RETAIL SECTORAL-ENERGY CONSUMPTION - Wt TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL RETAIL WHOLESALEGOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATON PUMPING SALES ENERGYENERGY SALES
ACTUAL HISTCRICAL VALUES
1967 393amp3 63e4 2352 317 42o5 3031968 oa T66 18049 260155225 1552 303amp4 454 739 483 00 11489 2170o7 33171969 5904 1626 lZuNm 226 1194 420b 00 Z441 31265 557371970 7046 2352 46913 806 14471971 7531 3534
5188 70 63824 40618 10444348946 2848 9091972 9162 3520
9350 589 73709 41487 11519736489 4042 15Z9 9625 606 64995 39723 1G47151973 11568 4612 36331 4318 1576 89951974 12938 5324 932 68335 45860 1151952amp623 3614 149a7 12492 1027 63158 52500 115658
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS - - - -
EX -
P2 -
P1 PF PFA P1 PI Pi354508 21643 44Cs572 16804 48794 -161377 -70898 1546499B 1177 49391 489907 1492 0596 176546 22570 468027C 0000 1786 0000 00000 0000 0000 0000 0000D 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 00000 0000 00000E 0000 0000 00000 00000 0000 00000 0000 0000
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 -
15386 6108 48497 4459 1807 14275 1322 91856 5758o7 1494441976 18111 6942 5339o6 5218 1924 16040 1548 103182 62267 1654491977 213290 7811 5829o5 1978 25097 8715
6015 2037 1780s6 1773 115059 66948 18200763194 6849 2145 19571 1999 127574 71628 1992021979 29543 9656 68093 7718 2250 21337 2225 140824 76308 217133
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED rERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
1968 3285 14481 2898 4318 7372 5937 000 4422 2026 27601969 1299 480 27174 -5027 6164 77123 000 11273 4402 67801970 1934 4458 31585 25669 2116 2328 000 16113 2991 87481971 688 5024 433 25311 -3718 8021 73930 1548 213 10291972 2192 -039 -2545 4191 6824 294 274 -1182 -426 -9091973 2598 3103 -043 684 301 -654 5382 513 1797 10001974 1183 1543 -2771 -1630 -497 3887 1022 -7957 1203 0401975 1892 1473 8465 2336 2068 1427 28c68 4543 969 29211976 1771 1364 1010 1702 648 1236 1706 1232 8121977 13711771 1251 917 1528 584 1100 1457 1151 751 10001978 1771 1158 840 1386 532 991 1272 10e7 699 9441979 1771 1079 775 1268 488 902 1128 1038 553 9C0
OTE EX EXPONENTIAL PN = POLYNOMIAC N-TH DEGREE 9 PF POWER FUNCTION
--- --------- --------- --
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION AND SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONE SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD CENTERtS 131 132 133 134 135 136 1j37 138 139 LOAD ZONE 13
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH shy _ TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT RETAIL WHOLESALEPUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGYENERGY SALES
ACTUALIzSTORr CAL VALUES - ---- - ---
1967 567 00 000 09 16oZ 00 001968 1437 739 oeO 7Z900 00 13 206 001969 1737 00 1658 0001 165800 22 342 00 201970 2124 002020 212404 00 34 570 00 89 27191971 2513 00 271921 00 112 681 00 471972 407m8 3376 00 337635 38705 237 683 00 223 439631973 9773 00 4396333 83830 401 600 1809 34o61974 11072 96796 00 9679610a5 99652 60v9 667 6279 371 118757 00 118757
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS
P2 P2 P1 P2 P1 P1A 226928 P11864 -15925300 10078 13384 -2948o268 -24130B -135536 -1640 000030479366 -9149 7900 447032 7715C 31294 0315 00000 00001925 0000 00000 0000D 0000 00000 00000 00000 I0000 00000 0000 0000E 0000 000000000 00000 0000 0000 0000 OOOO 0000 1
I-PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 15419 126 135009 837 844 10750 4531976 16344ol 0020010 170 163441165483 1111 923 15220 530 2034501977 2522o6 220 195957 1424 1002 00 203450
19690 607 2441291978 31068 276 00 244129226430 1775 1081 241691 68o4 2854791979 3753o7 OO 2854793399 256904 2165 1160 28631 761 327500 00 327500
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
1968 15343 2121 000 4087 2743 000 000 124231969 2085 000 1242312499 000 6831 65551970 1628 000 000 2807 000 280715000 000 55o61 66amp491971 000 34482 2802 000 28s022439 38066 000 22651 1948 000 -47oll 24141972 62o27 000 24146449 000 11188 028 000 36993 120216 0001973 139o63 120216-708 11658 6892 -1206 000 5521 120171974 1329 21760 1887 5170
000 120171100 247031975 712 22o68 0003925 2083 22683548 3728 2665 71181976 2208 37622977 34o37 000 376222s57 3277 9935 4158 1702 24471977 26o06 2928 1841 000 24472815 8551978 2315 2551
2937 1455 19099 000 19991555 2467 787 2270 1270 16o931979 2081 2261 1345 000 16932195 730 1850 11o27 1471 000 1471
NOTE Ea EXPONENgTIAL PM POkLYNO4IAL N-TM DEGREE 9 PF POWER FUNCTION
iISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION AND SHORT-RANG xTRAPQampTLNFOR ENALUF L AD-ZONESUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD CENTrES 14amp1 142 143 144 146e
LOAD ZONE 14
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MI4 -- TOTAL TUTAL TCTAL
YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING RETAIL SALES
WMOLESALE ENERGY
ENERGY SALES
ACTUAL PISTORICAL VALUES
1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
9077 10132 10644 11663 11911 12931 1484s9 15757
87 96
397 748 735 740 1462 1662
1587 1422 2738 2748 3425 4183 3580 3571
552 Z6aQ 262 430 666 1325 1368 1368
525 1493 2129 2200 2097 2289 1990 1919
00 00 00 14 22 127 13amp7 145
00 00 73
280 51 71
170 425
11830 13405 16246 18086 18911 21668 23560 24851
OC O 00 00 00 00 00 00
113C 134C5 16246 18C86 18911 21668 23560 24b51
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS
A B C D E
EX 848s116
1078 0000 0000 0000
P2 -0376 69519 1771 0000 0000
P1 131s668 35345 0000 0000 0000
Pi -0657 17468 0000 0000 0000
P1 115467 15023 0000 0000 0000
P1 -8311 2943 00000 0000 0000
P2 70e773 -26318
2769 0000 0000
0000 0000 00000 0000 00000
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
16794 18118 195497 2108e9 22752
2018 2419 2857 332o9 383o7
4497 4851 5204 5558 5911
1565 1740 1914 2089 2264
2506 26597 2807 2957 3107
181 211 240 270 299
582 845 116s4 1538 1967
28146 30844 33736 36832 40141
00 00 00 00 090
28146 30644 33736 36b32 4C141
IISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
1162 505 957 212 856 1483 611 6s57 788 788 788 788
10o47 30996 8840 -162 066 97e46 1364 2140 1991 1806 1654 1525
-1044 9259 035
2461 2212
-1440 -023 2592 785 7928 679 635
-5288 094
6365 54o99 9881 3e20
-000 1441 11415 1003 912 835
18449 4258 334
-467 911
-1303 -359 3062 599 565 535 507
000 1363
577600 5371
46306 839 5o77
2472 1619 1393 1223 1089
000 000
28212 -8146 3738
13922 149e38 3686 4515 3765 3211 2790
1331 21o19 1132 456 1457 673 547 1326 958 937 9o17 898
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 003 OCO
1331 2119 1132 456
157 873 547
1326 95d 9e37 917 198
NOTE EX EXPONENTIAL PN a POLYNOMIAL N-TH DEGREE PF POWER FUNCTION
--------
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION AND SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONE SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD CENTERS 151
LOAD ZONE 15
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL IDISTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG RETAIL WHOLESALEIRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGYENERGY SALES
ACTUAL HISTORICAL VALUES
1967 44197 4603 25350 60 180 1634 138 363841968 4604 11466 23893 85 00 36384
356 23181969 5542 10471 37852 168 14amp2 42868 00 42b68365 3301 151 578531970 5800 00 578539561 35443 307 674 42121971 128 56129 006562 9701 5612940379 525 768 3872 143 619541972 7584 11871 4650e9 00 6195o41095 764 4831 1801973 72836 0013368 12023 72m3648671 1329
1974 14717 12452 757 9096 276 85524 00 8552456329 1294 724 11064 31e6 96899 00 96ts99
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS
EX PF EX P1 P1A 320677 P2 P2605662 2225823 -34822 19319 263027 18841B 1192 0000O3S 1125 2i255 8s460 -66105 -4296 06000C 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 21121 0744D 0000 0000 0000 00000000 0000 0000 0000E 0000 0000 00000000 0000 0000 0000 00000 0000
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS 1975 15687 13640 64255 156o4 954 1378o91976 40o4 11029618713 14182 00 11029o672287 1777 1977 22323 14690
1039 17141 502 125644 00 12564481324 1989 1123 20916 61e6 1429851978 26629 00 14298515170 91491 2202 1208 25113 744 1625601979 31767 00 1525601562o6 102929 2414 1293 29732 887 184650 00 184650
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
1968 422 14909 -5o74 4227 9766 4190 3101969 1781 00020c36 -867 17815842 9647 2o76 42381970 466 -869 601 3495 000 3495-636 8311 8436 27561971 1312 -1518 -298 00029s146 1392 7083 1387 -8051972 1556 1136 1037 000 10372236 1518 10819 -045 2474 26341973 7626 1756 000128 1756464 2139 -087 8829 5304 17411974 1009 356 000 17411573 -265 -446 21631975 1437 1329658 954 1407 2092 000 13293184 2452 2780 13821976 1929 OcO 132397 1250 1358 886 2430 2433 13911977 1929 000 1391358 1250 1195 814 2201 22531978 1929 326 1380 Ovo 131250 1068 752 2006 2080 13691979 1929 000 1369300 1250 965 700 1839 1921 1358 000 13b
NOTE EX EXPONENTIAL PN = PCLYNOMIAL N-TH DEGREE PF aPOWER FUNCTION
HISTORICAL LAD DATA REGRESSON ANZ HRT-RANG EX TOAPCAriNO FOR EIALUF LaQ Zb SUPPLIEFD PC LTERCQWrEZCTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD CENTERS 161 LZ 163 1646 165 16amp6
LOAD ZONE 16
YEAR RESIDENTIAL
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH -----
COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION
-
PUMPING
TOTAL
RETAIL SALES
TOTAL WHOLESALE
ENERGY
TOTAL ENERGY SALES
-------------------
ACTUAL HISTORICAL VALUES - - ------------shy
1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
000 00 00 00 00 000 00 00
00 00 00 000 00 00 00 00
00 00 CC 00 00 00 00 00
o0 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
0 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 O 00 00 00 000 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
7997 10658 15376 23247 3188o5 3i594 39501 47720
797 106 8 15376 237 31 t5 3594 3-5Gl 47720
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS - - --------- -------shy
0000 0000 B 0000 0000 C 0000 0000 D 0000 0000 E 00000 0000
0000 0000 COOC Co00 0000
00000 0000 0000 0000 0000
0000 0000 0000 0000 0000
0000 0000 0000 00000 0000
0000 0000 0000 0000 0000
P2
119980 523e033
6907 0000 00000
H
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 00 00 00 Oo 1976 00 00 00 001977 00 00 00 001978 00 00 00 Oo 1979 00 00 00 000
00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00
30 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 0 00
53867 60410 67091 73910 80o67
53867 60410 67091 7391C C67
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES ---- ---------------------------------------shy1968 000 000 000 000 1969 000 000 000 000 1970 000 000 000 0001971 000 000 000 000 1972 000 000 000 000 1973 000 000 000 0001974 000 000 000 000 1975 000 000 000 000 1976 000 000 000 0001977 000 000 000 000 1978 000 000 00 00 000 1979 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
0 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 00 01000 OCo0
000 000 000 000 000 333 000 000 000 000
o 300
33o27 4425 5118 3710 1163 1097 2080 1288 1214 1105 10o 941
33o27 4425 5118 3715 1163 1C97 20h3 12bi 1214 1105 1C16 91
NOTE EX u EXPONENTIAL PN = POLYNCMIAL N-TH DEGREE PF POWER FUNCTION
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION AND SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONE SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM ZOPE LOAD CENTERS 17
LOAD ZONE 17
SRETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMprTir - MWH YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION
------
PUMPING
TOTAL RETAIL SALES
TOTAL TOTAL WHOLESALE ENERGY
ENERGY 5ALES
-- - --ACTUAL HISTORICAL VALUES
- --- -------shy
1967 00 00 00 00 00 001968 00 00 00 00 00 001969 00 00 0o 00 00 001970 00 00 00 00 00 001971 00 00 00 00 00 001972 00 00 00 00 00 001973 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00
Oo 10 co 00 00 00
26271 26271 31527 31r2 36047 3647 39745 39745
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS -- ---------------
A 0000 0000 0cCO 0000 0000 0000 B 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 o0oooC 0000 0000 O000 0000 0G00 0000D 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000E 0000 0000 0000 0000 00000 0000
0000 00000 0000 0000 0000
EX 1548o536
1147 0000 0000 0000
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS -----------------------------------------shy
1974 00 00 00 00 00 001975 00 00 00 00 00 001976 00 00 00 00 00 001977 00 00 00 00 00 001978 00 00 00 00 00 001979 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 no s00
00
46556 46556 53423 53423 61304 61304 70347 70347 80724 80724 92632 92632
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
1968 000 000 000 000 000 0001969 000 000 000 000 000 0001970 000 000 000 000 000 0001971 000 000 000 000 000 OOO1972 000 000 000 000 000 0001973 000 000 000 000 000 000 1974 000 000 000 0000 000 0001975 000 000 000 000 000 0001976 000 000 000 000 000 0001977 000 000 000 0000 000 0001978 0000 000 000 000 000 0001979 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 Co0
2000 2000 1433 1433 1025 1025 1713 1713 1475 1475 1475 1475 1475 1475 1475 1475 1475 1475
NOTE EX EXPONENTIAL PN x POLYNOMIAL N-TH DEGREE s PF u POWER FUNCTION
HISTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION MI SHORT-RANM EXTRAPOLATION FOR ENALUF Lwz ZDK SUPPLLFD FROM LNTERCONNECTED SYSTEM ZONE LOADCeuroNTERS a C a E R A M LOAD ZONE 18
YEAR RESIDENTIAL
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION shy mWH
COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG
IRRIGATrON
-
PUMPING
TOTALRETAIL
SALES
TOTALWHOLESALE
ENERGY
TCTALENERGY
SALES - - - - -- ---------- ----
------- ----
ACTUAL HISTORICAL VALUES
1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
00 00 00 00 000 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 0amp0 00 00 00 00 000 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
408 3233 4624 7320
14752 24791 4408s4 72236
408 3233 4624 7320 14752 24791 44Cb4 72236
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EQUATIONS
P2
B C D E
0000 0000 0000 0000 0000
0000 0000 0000 0000 0000
00000 0000 0000 0000 0000
0000 0000 0000 00000 0000
0000 0000 0000 0000 0000
0000 00000 0000 00000 00000
0000 0000 0000 0000 0000
11809885 -991064 212629 0000 0000
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00
C0 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00
94842 1253391 160073 199067 242313
94842125331 160073 199C67 242313
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
---------
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
--
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 OCO
-
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
0000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
69137 43904 5828
10153 6804 7782 63a85 3129 3214 2771 2436 2172
69137 4304 528 10153 6804 7782 6385 3129 3214 2771 236 2172
NOTE EX a EXPONENTIAL PN a POLYNOMIAL N-TH DEGREE PF - POWER FUNCTION
HYSTORICAL LOAD DATA REGRESSION AND SHRT-RlGE EXTRAPOLATION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONE SUPPLIED FROINTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CENTERS C 0 E R D R I LOAD ZONE 19
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIO1 - MWH - TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING RETAIL SALES
WHOLESALE ENERGY
ENERGY SALES
~-- n ---- ---- - --- ------- -- --
ACTUAL I4STORICAL VALUES
1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
av 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 O0 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
21113 24146 28418 4t063 59594 98787 116428 106431
21113 24146 28418 48G63 59594 987a7 1164Z8 105431
COEFFICIENTS FOR TREND EUATIONS
A 8
0000 0000
0000 0000
0000 0000
0000 0000
00000 0000
0000 0000
0000 0000
P2 436610 917353
C D E
0000 0000 0000
0000 0000 0000
0000 0000 0000
0000 0000 0000
0000 0000 0000
0000 0000 0000
00000 0000 0000
67552 0000 0000
PROJECTED VALUES BY EXTRAPOLATION USING TREND EQUATIONS
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
00 000 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00
00 00 000 00 00
00 000 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00
141645 163654 187014 211724 237786
141645 163654 187014 211724 237756
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES
1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
1436 1768 6912 2399 6576 1785 -858 3308 1553 1427 1321 1230
1436 1768 6912 23o99 65976 17b5 -850 3308 1553 1427 1321 1230
NOTE EX a EXPONENTIAL PN a POLYNOMIAL N-TN DEGREE PF - POWER FUNCTION
APPENDIX B
PROGRAM (Z0NL0D) PRINTOUT
LONG-RANGE
LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY FORECASTS
FOR
LOAD ZONES I - 24
--
-- - - --- --
LONG-RANGE LOD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND N ENERW CONSU41 WIMIFM ENALUF ZOampI SUPPUED FRQWTERCONRECTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD CENTERIS 11 12 13
LOAD ZONE I
-~-- RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCiAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGYPUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES- -ml Ie l--- a-
L974 7926901 474021 1893345 177365 8308amp2 Z7099 Z06598 3654205 00 3654205 1975 9517597 56803m2 Z138705 Z3538ci 90299 3335amp3 241927 4259455 00 42594551976 987288 596836 2431398 2419o8 97551 39407 277010 4ampTL44p 00 467144o81977 1022818 625640 27b442 24806amp8 1978
10480Z 46137 315502 5127h10 00 5127410105834o9 654444 3Z229100 253780 112053 53543 357404 5612491 00 56124911979 1090099 680621 343520amp9 258855 119336 61574 400292 6045986 00 6045986 1980 1122802 707846 3778729 264032 127093 70810 448327 6519638 00 651963b1981 1156486 736160 4156601 269313 135354 8143amp2 502126 7037471 00 70374711982 1191180 765606 4572261 274699 144152 93646 562381 7603926 00 76039261983 1226915 796230 5029486 280193 153522 10769amp3 629867 8223906 00 82239061984 1258815 824098 5431846 285236 161965 120617 692854 8775428 00 8775428 1985 1291544 852941 5866391 290371 17087o3 135091 762139 9369351 00 93693511986 1325124 882794 6335701 295597 180271 151302 838353 10009141 00 100091411987 1359577 913692 6842556 300918 19018s6 169458 922186 10698577 00 106985771988 1394925 945671 738996amp1 306335 200647 189793 101440e6 11441737 00 114417371989 1427008 974041 7833356 311236 209676 206874 1095559 12057747 00 12057747
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 1
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGYYEAR MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD LOAD MAX DEMANDMWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW - - - -
1974 00 00 00 3654205 511588 416579o3 4165793 05799 819 1975 00 00 00 4259455 596323 4855778 4855778 05814 95s31976 00 00 00 4671448 654002 p325451 5325451 05829 10421977 00 00 00 5127410 717837 5845247 5845247 05844 11411978 00 00 00 5612491 785748 6398238 6398238 05859 12461979 00 00 00 6045986 846437 6892423 6892423 05874 1339 1980 00 -00 00 6519638 912749 7432387 7432387 05889 14401981 00 00 00 7037471 985245 8022716 8022716 05904 15501982 00 00 00 7603926 1064549 8668475 8668475 05919 16711983 00 00 00 8223906 1151346 9375252 9375252 05934 18031984 00 00 00 8775428 122855a9 10003987 10003987 05944 1920 1985 00 00 00 9369351 1311709 10681060 10681060 095954 20471986 00 00 00 10009141 140127o9 11410420 11410420 05964 21831987 00 00 00 10698577 1497800 12196377 12196377 05974 23301988 00 00 00 11441737 1601842 13043580 13043580 05984 24871989 00 00 00 12057747 1688084 13745830 13745830 05994 2617
--- ------------------------------------- ------
--- -- - -- --
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND AtO ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONES SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CENTERS 21 22 23 LOAD ZONE 2
------------------ RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGY YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
---------- ---------- ---- ----------- __ 1974 1413o2 4479 11577 158o2 412 26637 4535 63357 00 63357
1975 14263 5295 14321 1826 44o2 32581 5219 73950 00 739501976 16154 5806 16914 1981 46ol 39422 6310 87050 00 870501977 18296 6310 19734 2119 479 46461 7580 100981 00 100981 1978 20721 6808 22782 2239 495 53227 9046 115322 00 11532o2 1979 23456 7298 26062 2341 510 59081 10719 129471 00 129471
1980 26552 7823 29815 2449 527 65580 12702 145452 00 145452 1981 30057 838o6 34109 2562 544 72794 15052 163507 00 163507 1982 34024 8990 39020 2680 561 80802 17837 183917 00 1839171983 38516 9638 44639 2803 579 89690 21137 207004 00 207004 1984 43138 10312 504492 291s5 596 98659 24307 230373 00 230373
1985 48314 11034 57000 3032 614 108525 27953 256476 00 2564761986 54112 11807 64410 3153 63o3 119378 32147 00285641 2856411987 60605 12633 72783 3279 652 3696131315 318240 00 31824o0 1988 67878 13517 82245 3410 67o1 144447 42514 00354686 354686 1989 75345 14396 91703 3530 688 157447 47616 39072o8 00 390728
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTIO1 FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 2
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMANDYEAR MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MwH FACTOR MW
-
1974 00 00 00 63357 8869 72226 72226 03499 23
1975 00 00 00 7395o0 10353 84303 84303 03524 271976 00 00 00 87050 121896 99237 99237 03549 311977 00 00 00 100981 14137 115118 115118 03574 36 1978 00 00 00 11532o2 16145 1314697 13146o7 03599 41 1979 00 00 00 129471 18125 147596 14759o6 03624 46
1980 00 00 00 145452 2036o3 165815 165815 03649 511981 00 00 00 163507 22890 186397 186397 03674 571982 00 00 00 183917 2574s8 209665 209665 03699 641983 00 00 00 207004 28980 235984 235984 03724 721984 00 00 00 23037o3 32252 262625 262625 03744 80
1985 00 00 00 25647o6 35906 292382 292382 03764 881986 00 00 00 285641 39989 325630 325630 03784 98 1987 00 00 00 318240 44553 362793 362793 03804 1081988 00 00 00 354686 49656 404342 404342 03824 1201989 00 00 00 390728 54701 445429 445429 03844 12
--------------
------------------- ------------------
- -------- ------- --- - ----
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONES SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CENTERS 31 3s2 33 34 35 LOAD ZONE 3
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH ---------------- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
RETAIL WNOLESALE ENERGYYEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES ---- ------------------------------ eeeee---shy
1974 16855 224a6 41194 2535 1558 76304 556 135250 00 135250
1975 189297 2811 53414 3075 1700 89869 640 170438 00 1704381976 217897 336o2 73069 4327 2038 101887 682 207155 00 2071551977 25079 3956 95835 5789 2444 113905 724 247735 00 2477351978 28869 4591 121712 7462 2930 125922 766 292255 00 2922551979 31755 5141 146054 8954 3369 134736 804 330816 00 330816
1980 34931 5758 175265 10745 3874 144168 844 375588 00 3755881981 3842s4 6450 210318 12894 4456 154259 886 427689 00 4276891982 42267 7224 252381 15473 5124 165057 931 488459 00 4884591983 46493 8090 302858 18567 5893 176611 977 559493 00 5594931984 50213 8899 348286 21352 6600 185442 1016 621812 00 621812
1935 54230 9789 400529 24555 7392 194714 10507 692270 00 692270986 58568 10768 460608 28239 8279 204450 1099 772015 00 7720151987 63254 11845 529700 32475 9273 214672 1143 862365 00 8623651988 68314 13030 609155 37346 103805 225406 1189 964828 00 9648281989 72413 14072 670070 41081 11320 232168 1225 1042352 00 1042352
La
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 3
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMANDYEAR MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW ------ m----- shy
1974 00 00 00 135250 18935 154185 154185 03499 50
1975 00 00 00 170438 23861 194299 194299 03524 621976 00 00 00 20715s5 29001 236156 2361596 03549 751977 00 000 00 247735 34682 282417 282417 03574 901978 00 00 00 292255 40915 333170 333170 03599 1051979 00 00 00 330816 46314 377130 377130 03624 118
1980 00 00 00 375588 52582 428170 428170 03649 1331981 00 OeO 00 427689 59876 487565 487565 03674 1511982 00 000 00 488459 68384 556843 556843 03699 1711983 00 00 00 559493 78329 637822 637822 03724 1951984 00 00 00 621812 87053 708865 708865 03754 215
1985 00 00 00 692270 96917 789187 789187 03784 2381986 00 00 00 772015 108082 880097 880097 03814 2631987 00 00 00 862365 120731 983096 983096 03844 2911988 00 00 00 964828 135075 1099903 1099903 03874 3241989 00 00 00 1042352 145929 1188281 1188281 039U 346
----------
-------
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND AND EERGY CONSUPTION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONES SUPPLLED FPRM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD CENTERS 41
LOAD ZONE 4
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGYPUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
1974 95609 7798m7 13074 17161 11375 20208 17254 362671 00 362671 1975 108411 86819 180509 18899 11745 235581976 19693 449637 00 449637120293 95095 250315 21214 1224s2 22504 21866 543535 00 5435351977 131462 103259 323727 24084 1273amp8 204401978 23964 639676 00 639676141430 111322 388212 27671 13235 17365 259651979 725202 00 725202149632 119337 427809 32126 13724 17191 27834 787655 00 787655 1980 158311 127929 471445 3729e8 14232 17019 29838 856075 00 8560751981 167493 137140 519533 43303 14759 168491982 177208 31986 931065 00 931065147014 572525 50275 15305 16680 34289 1013298 00 10132951983 187486 157599 630922 58369 15871 16513 36758 1103521 00 11035211984 196860 167843 687705 65373 16347 16348 38964 1189443 00 1189443 1985 206703 178753 749599 1986 217038 19037 817063
73218 16838 16185 41302 1282599 00 128259982004 17343 16023 43780 1383625 00 1Z836251987 227890 202746 890598 91845 178631988 15863 46407 1493214 00 1493214239285 215924 970752 102866 1839o9 15704 49191 1612123 00 16121231989 248856 228879 1048412 112124 18859 15547 51651 1724330 00 1724330
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 4 ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS
YEAR ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMANDMWK SOLD NWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW -
1974 00 00 00 362671 5077s3 413444 41344o4 03999 117
1975 00 00 00 449637 62949 5125861976 512586 04014 14500 00 00 54353o5 76094 619629 619629 04029 1751977 00 00 00 639676 89554 729230 729230 04044 2051978 00 00 00 725202 101528 826730 826730 04059 2321979 00 00 00 787655 110271 897926 897926 04079 251 1980 00 00 00 856075 119850 975925 9759251981 00 04099 27100 00 931065 130349 1061414 1061414 04119 2941982 00 00 00 1013298 141861 1155159 1155159 04139 3181983 00 00 00 1103521 154492 1258013 1258013 04159 3451984 00 00 00 1189443 166522 1355965 1355965 04174 370 1985 00 00 00 1282599 179563 1462162 14621692 04189 3981986 00 00 00 1383625 193707 1577332 1577332 04204 -01987 00 00 00 1493214 209049 1702263 1702263 04219 4601988 00 00 00 1612123 225697 1837820 1837820 04234 49e51989 00 00 00 1724330 241406 1965736 1965736 04249 527
- ------- -- - ------- ---- ---- - -------- -
LONG-RANE LOAD FCONrAST OF KW DEMAND A=I ENERGra CMSUMITUON - EIWMF LQAU 7MES SUPPLIU FF HIYRCONECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CNTFRS 51 5o2 LOAD ZONE 5
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - W --- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGYYEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
1974 497o7 1606 3871 2008 6e L155o oo 3Z8ampg 00 32829
1975 5044 1968 16485 2593 9504 115661 00 36268 00 36268 1976 5571 2120 22341 286 1053 14846 00 46226 00 462261977 6097 2283 29G7 319 1151 18130 00 57050 Goo 57050 1978 6624 2435 36665 352 125amp0 21415 600 68742 00 68742 1979 6955 2581 40331 376 13295 23128 641 75339 00 75339
1980 7302 2735 44364 403 1404 24978 686 81876 00 81876 1981 7668 2900 48801 431 1488 26976 735 89001 00 89001 1982 8051 3074 53681 461 1578 29134 786 96767 000 9676o7 1983 8454 3258 59049 493 1672 31465 841 105235 00 105235 1984 8792 3421 6377amp3 518 1756 33353 883 112498 00 112498
1985 9143 3592 68875 5494 1844 35354 927 120282 00 120282 1986 9509 3772 74385 571 1936 37476 974 128625 00 128625 1987 9890 3960 80335 600 2033 39724 1022 137567 00 1375671988 10285 4158 86762 630 2134 4210o8 1074 147154 00 147154 1989 105904 4325 91968 649 2220 43792 1106 154655 00 154655
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 5
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMAND YEAR MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS 14WH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW
1974 00 00 00 3282o9 4596 37425 37425 03499 lo2
1975 00 00 00 36268 5077 41345 41345 03514 13 1976 00 00 00 46226 6471 52697 52697 03529 17 1977 00 00 00 57050 7986 65037 65037 03544 20 1978 00 00 00 6874amp2 9623 7836o5 78365 03559 25 1979 000 00 00 7533amp9 10547 85886 85886 03574 27
1980 00 00 00 81876 11462 93338 93338 03589 2o9 1981 00 00 00 89001 12460 101461 101461 03604 32 1982 00 00 00 96767 13547 110314 110314 0O3619 34 1983 00 00 00 105235 14732 119967 119967 03634 1984 00 00 00 112498 15749 128247 12824o7 03644 40
1985 00 00 00 120282 16839 137121 137121 03654 42 1986 00 00 00 128625 18007 146632 146632 03664 45 1987 00 00 00 137567 19259 156826 156826 03674 48 1988 00 00 00 147154 20601 167755 167755 03684 51 1989 00 00 00 154655 21651 176306 176306 03694 54
--- -
----------
LU4-K^tR t LI FQRECAST OF MAX DEMAO AND ENEMY CONLSUM4TWN FOR ENALUF L) ZONES SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSiEM ZONE LOAD CENTERIS 61 62 63 LOAD ZONE 6
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - H- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGYYEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
-- mDilb ni n olm
1974 7034 4524 201030 65o3 29 426amp4o Zamp6amp3 2Z0398 La770o5 408104
1975 738o7 6102 205836 92zo 3T 78taampZ 3631 237luamp 208107 4398251976 7675 7041 23406s3 102s- 45 756amp2 Pamp3 262406 232870 4952761977 7946 7979 265678 1128 53 7350 6600 296737 260299 5570361978 8201 8917 300681 123o2 61 7163 845o0 334708 290393 6251011979 8447 9808 336762 133amp0 68 7019 10amp3o9 373576 322336 695912
1980 8700 10789 377174 1437 76 6879 12167 417224 357793 7750171981 896l 11868 422434 1551 85 6141 14601 466245 397150 8633951982 9230 1305v5 473127 167o6 9a5 6606 17521 521313 440836 9621501983 9507 14360 52990s2 1810 107 6474 21026 583188 48c328 10725171984 976o8 15653 588191 1918 118 6377 24180 646208 538261 1184469
1985 10037 17062 65289amp2 2033 130 6281 2780o7 716244 592087 130833c21986 10313 18597 724710 2155 143 6187 3197)8 794086 651296 14453821987 10596 2027l 804428 2285 157 6094 36775 880609 71642o5 15970341988 10888 22096 89291s5 2422 173 6003 42291 976789 786067 176485o71939 11160 2386o3 982206 2519 186 59403 46520 1072400 858993 1931394 H
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 6
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMANDYEAR mWH SC q MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW ------- e e
1974 187705 375e4 191459 220398 3085o5 251253 442712 03999 126
1975 208107 4162 21226ob 23171o8 32440 264158 476427 04019 13o51976 232870 4657 237527 262406 3673o6 299142 5366790 04039 1511977 260299 5205 26550o5 296737 415403 338280 60378o5 0o4059 1691978 290393 5807 296200 334708 46859 381567 67776a7 0o4079 1891979 322336 6446 328782 373576 52300 425876 75465o9 04099 21o0
1980 35779o3 7155 364948 417224 58411 475635 840584 04119 2321981 397150 794o3 405093 46624o5 6527o4 531519 936612 04139 25o1982 440836 8816 449652 521313 7298e3 59429o6 1043949 04159 2b61983 489328 9786 499114 583188 81646 664834 1163948 04179 3171984 538261 10765 549026 646208 90469 736677 1285703 0amp4194 349 1985 592087 11841 603928 716244 100274 816518 1420446 04209 3851986 651296 13025 664321 794086 111172 905257 1569579 04224 4241987 716425 1432o8 730753 88060o9 123285 1003894 1734647 04239 4671988 88067 15761 803828 976789 136750 1113539 1917367 04254 5141989 858993 17179 87617e2 1072400 150135 122253o6 2098709 04269 561
---------- -------- - ----------------- --------
--- ---- ------ -------
7
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONES SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CENTERS 71 72 LOAD ZONE
------- RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH ---- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGYYEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPNG SALES ENERGY SALES
-
1974 11056 3557 76736 490 1198 101369 1340 195751 00 195751
1975 12826 4437 93831 710 1272 105453 1761 220293 00 2202931976 14857 5578 109137 90e6 1347 111830 1980 245637 00 2456371977 17089 6905 126938 1138 1427 11859o3 2198 274292 00 2742921978 1952e2 8419 147644 1408 1511 125765 2417 306689 Oc 3066891979 22059 10102 171267 1661 1601 13331o0 2634 342638 00 342638
1980 24927 12123 198669 1960 1697 141309 2871 383559 00 38355o91981 28168 14548 230456 213 1799 149788 3130 430204 00 4302041982 31830 17457 267329 2729 1907 158775 3411 483441 00 4834411983 35967 20949 310102 3221 2022 168301 3718 544283 00 5442831984 4028amp4 24719 353516 3704 2133 176716 4016 605091 00 L05091
1985 45118 29169 403009 4259 2250 185552 43397 673697 00 6736971986 50532 34420 459430 489o8 2374 194830 4684 751170 00 7511701987 56596 40615 523750 5633 2504 20457ol 5059 838732 00 8387321988 63387 47926 597075 6478 2642 214800 5464 937775 00 9377751989 7036o0 55594 668724 7256 2774 223392 584o6 1033949 00 1033949
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 7
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMANDYEAR MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW
1974 00 00 00 195751 27405 223156 223156 03999 63
1975 00 00 00 220293 30841 251133 251133 04049 701976 00 00 00 245637 34389 280026 280026 04099 771977 00 00 00 274292 38400 312692 312692 04149 861978 00 00 00 306689 42936 349625 349625 04199 951979 00 00 00 342638 47969 39060 39060o7 0o4239 10o5
1980 00 00 00 383559 53698 437257 437257 04279 1161981 00 00 00 430204 60228 49043o2 490432 04319 1291982 00 00 00 483441 67681 551122 551122 04359 1441983 Oo 00 00 544283 76199 620482 620482 04399 1601984 00 00 00 605091 84712 689803 68980amp3 04429 177
1985 00 00 00 673697 94317 768014 768014 04459 1961986 00 00 00 751170 105163 85633o3 856333 04489 2171987 00 00 00 838732 117422 956154 956154 04519 2411988 00 00 00 937775 131288 1069063 1069063 04549 26819a9 00 00 00 1033949 144752 1178701 11787091 04569 294
- -- - -
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DWe0 AND ENERGY COI qPTION FOR IMALUF LOAD ZOIE SUPLIED FRO -ItiERCOMECTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD CENTERS C 0 N 0 a E R LOAD ZONE 8
-- RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - I - TOTARETAIL TOTAL TOTALWHOLESALE ENERGYYEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
- a-1974 o0
- -n
00 00 shy
00 0 00 00 00 280441 280441 19T7 OGo 00 0310 0aG 00 0i01976 00 00 293907 29390700 00 GOO 00 00 000 00 00 337166 3371661977 00 00 000 00 001978 00 00 - 0 cio 380425 38042500 00 00 OO 0o 00 001979 423684 42368400 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 466899 466o99 1980 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 001981 00 00 51452o3 514513 00 001982 00 567004 567004000 00 00 00 000 001983 00 00 00 624838 6240300 00 00 00 001984 00 00 688572 68857200 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 750543 750543
1985 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 001986 818092 81839200 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 891720 8917201987 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 001988 971975 97197500 00 00 00 00 00 00 001989 1059452 105945200 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 1144208 114420b
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 8 ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERSYEAR MWH SOLD dH LOSS MWH LOAD MW+ SOLD MWH LOSS M1mH LOAD
TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMAND MWH FACTOR MW
1974 280441 5608 286049 00 00 00 286049 03699 88 1975 293907 5878 29978o5 00 00 00 299785 03714 921976 337166 6743 343909 00 00 00 343909 037291977 10538042e5 7608 388033 00 00 00 388033 03744 1181978 423684 8473 432157 00 00 00 432157 03759 1311979 466899 9337 47623e7 00 00 00 476237 03779 143 1980 514523 10290 52481s3 00 001981 00 524813 037S9 157567004 11340 578344 0O 00 00 578344 038191982 624838 12496 637334 00 00
172 )983 00 637334 03839 189688572 13771 702343 00 00 00 702343 03859 2071984 750543 15010 765553 00 00 000 765553 03879 22s5 1985 818092 16361 834453 00 00 00 83445amp3 038991986 891720 17834 909554 000 00
244 1987 00 909554 03919 264971975 19439 991414 001988 00 00 991414 03939 2871059452 21169 1080640 00 00 00 1080640 03959 3111989 1144208 22884 1167092 00 00 00 116709Z 03974 335
- - -- - ---- - - - -- - - - - - - - -
---------------------- --- --
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND AND ENERGV COxSUmiKOJN FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONES SUPPLIED FROM LNTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CENTERS 91 92 93 94 95 tamp 97 98 9a9 910 LOAD ZONE 9
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH --------- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGYPUMPING SALES ENERGY SAE5
-
1974 15641 2148 1506 937 1348 68 875 30404 11900 149412
1975 17220 3060 1536 159z l509 87 9371 34380 141759 176139 1976 19730 416amp0 159e6 177o5 163o3 107 10221 39246 168764 2Cb101977 22651 5427 1657 1957 1758 31 1OTZ 44656 199532 2441881978 25979 6e6w 1718 2140 188amp2 161 11922 50665 234062 28472b1979 29797 8459 1778 2321 2006 195 12768 57328 272448 329776
1980 34178 10430 1840 251e9 2138 238 13675 65020 317129 3821501981 39202 12861 1904 2733 2279 290 14645 73917 369138 443n561982 44965 158597 1971 296amp5 2430 353 15685 8422e9 42967-7 5139061983 5157o4 19552 2040 3217 2590 429 1679o9 96205 500144 5963491984 57763 2346Z 2106 3443 2746 507 17891 107921 570164 67b085
1985 64695 28155 2175 3684 2910 598 1905e4 121274 649987 7712611986 72459 33786 224o5 3941 3085 706 20292 136518 740985 8775031987 81154 40544 2318 4217 3270 833 21611 15395amp0 844723 9986731988 90892 48652 2394 4513 346amp6 983 23016 173919 962984 11369031989 99072 559590 2466 4761 3657 1130 24397 191437 1078542 1269979
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 9
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMANDYEAR MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWM SOLD MWHMWH LOSS LOAD MWH FACTOR MW
1974 119008 2380 121388 30404 4256 3466amp0 156048 093699 48
1975 141759 2835 144594 34380 4813 39193 183787 03709 561976 168764 3375 172139 39246 5494 44740 216879 03719 661977 199532 3990 203522 44656 6251 50907 25443 03729 771978 234062 4681 238743 50665 7093 5775o8 296501 03739 901979 272448 544m8 27789e6 5732o8 8025 65353 343250 0s3754 1C94
1980 317129 6342 323471 65020 9102 74122 397594 03769 1201981 369138 7382 376520 73917 10348 84265 460786 03784 1381982 42967o7 8593 438270 8422o9 11792 96021 534291 03799 16019f3 500144 10002 510146 96205 13468 109673 619620 03814 1051984 57016o4 1140e3 58156o7 107921 15108 123029 704597 03834 209
1985 6499897 1299o9 662986 121274 16978 138252 801238 03854 2371986 7409N5 148199 755804 136518 19112 155630 911435 03874 26b1987 844723 16894 861617 153950 21552 175503 1037120 03894 3031988 962984 19259 982243 173919 24348 19826o 1180511 03914 3441989 1078542 21570 1100112 191437 26801 218238 1318350 03934 382
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND AND ENERGY CQNSUJMPTION FOR ENALF LOAD ZONES SUPPLIED FRCi EIfiERCONNECTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD CENTERI 101 IOz 103 104 105 J4 LOAD ZCNE 10
- RETAIL SECTORAL EftERGY CONSUMPTION - M -WH TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGYIRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
1974 9170 1952 352amp6 714 71e3 904 3906 Z010 133298 153409
1975 983 2195 3986 776 764 150 4434 22145 15ZT82 1749271976 11130 244amp4 5371 852 830 161 4810 25601 178050 2036521977 12597 2747 74A1 928 895 172 5190 29973 206039 2360131978 14257 3119 10325 1005 960 183 5579 35430 236748 2721781979 16138 3574 1~145 1081 1025 193 5975 42134 27012e9 312263
1980 18269 4096 19378 1163 1094 205 6399 50607 308217 3588251981 20680 4694 26549 1251 1169 217 6853 6141 351676 130921982 23410 5379 3637a2 1347 124s8 230 7340 75329 401262 476591 1983 26500 6165 49830 1449 1333 243 7861 93384 457840 5512251984 29680 7028 6477e9 1550 1413 257 8372 113082 512781 625863
1985 33242 8012 84213 1659 1498 271 8916 137814 574314 7121281986 37231 9133 10947o6 1775 15868 286 9496 168989 643232 812221 1987 41699 1041s2 142319 1900 1684 301 10113 208431 720420 928U51l 1988 46703 11870 185015 2033 1785 318 10770 258497 806870 106567 1989 51840 13413 22756 ~215e5 1883 334 1141e7 30861e3 887557 1196170
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 10 Z
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMANDYEAR MUM SOLD MWH LOSS WNW LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS KWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW
1974 133298 2665 135963 20110 2815 22925 158889 03499 51
1975 152782 3055 155837 22145 3100 2524s5 181082 03524 581976 178050 3561 181611 25601 3584 bull 29185 210796 03549 6s71977 206039 4120 210159 29973 4196 34169 24432o8 03574 781978 236748 4734 24148o2 35430 4960 40390 281873 03599 891979 270129 5402 275531 42134 5898 48032 323564 03629 101
1980 308217 6164 314381 50607 7084 57691 372073 03659 1161981 351676 7033 358709 61416 8598 70014 428723 093689 132 1982 401262 8025 409287 75329 10546 85875 495162 03719 1511983 45784C 915e6 466996 93384 13073 106457 573454 03749 17o41984 512781 10255 523036 113082 1583l 128913 651950 03779 19s6 1985 57431o4 1148e6 585800 137814 19293 15710e7 742908 03809 221986 643232 12864 656096 168989 23658 192647 84874o4 03839 2501987 720420 1440o8 73482o8 20843a1 29180 237611 972439 03869 161988 806870 613o7 8230097 258497 36189 2946b6 1117694 0o3899 3271989 88755o7 17751 905308 308613 43205 351818 1257126 03924 36e5
- ------
- ---- ------ - ------
----- ----- - ---------
LONG-OXGE LAO FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND ANW EERGY CG0WtJIMIA EPOLUF LO ZE6S SUPPLIEDRO JTEOCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CENTERS L1 112 213 l14 LOAD ZONE 11
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMtPTION - m t shy rOrAL TOTAL TOTAL YEAR RESIDENTIAL COM CIAL INDUSTRIAL RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGYGOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
-
1974 81835 4649o6 13993 47b 760^2 L2l 1724Z 314054 00 314054
1975 89060 50341 154188 5563 8074 18141 19960 345329 00 3453291976 100252 55254 175266 6144 8570 19862 22494 38784o5 00 3878451977 112851 60167 198834 672o5 9067 2158o4 2535amp 434599 00 4345991978 127032 65080 Z2495al 7306 9563 23305 28568 485809 00 4685091979 142275 69960 25194o5 7890 1004o1 24936 31996 539045 00 53904s5
1980 159348 7520o8 282178 852ol 10543 26681 35835 598317 00 59b31o71981 178470 80848 316039 9203 11070 28549 40135 664318 00 6643181982 199887 86912 353964 9939 11623 30548 44952 737827 00 737b271983 223873 93430 396440 10734 12205 32686 50346 819717 00 8197172984 248499 99970 440048 11486 12754 34811 55884 903454 00 903454
1985 275334 106968 488453 12290 1332a8 37073 62031 995981 00 9959811986 306176 114456 542183 13150 13928 39483 68855 109823o3 00 10982331987 339855 122468 601823 14071 14554 42049 76429 1211252 00 12112521988 37723o9 131041 668024 15056 15209 44783 84836 1336190 00 13361901989 414963 13955o8 734826 15959 15818 47470 93320 1461916 00 1461916
w
T)TAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 11
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGYYEAR MWH SOLD MWH LOSS LOAD MAX DEMANDMWH LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW e
-
1974 00 00 00 314054 43967 358021 358021 03999 102
1975 00 00 00 345329 48346 393675 393675 040141976 00 00 00 387845 54298 442143 442143 111
04029 1251977 00 00 00 434599 60843 495442 495442 04044 1391978 00 00 00 485809 68013 553822 553822 04059 1551979 00 00 00 539045 75466 614511 614511 04079 171
1980 00 00 00 5983l7 83764 682081 682081 040991981 00 00 180900 664318 93004 757322 757322 04119 2091982 00 00 00 717 27 103295 841122 841122 04139 2311983 00 00 00 819717 114760 9344771984 934477 04159 25600 00 00 903454 126483 1029937 1C29937 04179 281
1985 00 00 00 995981 139437 1135418 1135418 04199 30b1986 00 00 00 109823o3 153752 1251985 1251985 04219 331987 00 00 00 1211252 169575 1380827 1380827 042391988 00 37100 00 1336190 187066 1523256 1523256 04259 4081989 00 00 00 1461916 204668 1666584 1666584 04274 445
LONG-RAXGS LOAD FOWCAST OF MAX VtrftjVN AD ENIRMY COCISLI PIN F l4ALUF LOAD ZOtES SbPIED FROe IIMRCNKECTED SYSTEM Z E LOAD CENTE_S 121 122- 123 12 -12
LOAD ZONE 12
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MW+- -- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL RETAILINDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT WHOLESALE ENERGYPUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
-1974 12930 532o4
-- - - - - shy
26263 36104 149c7 12492 1027 63158 52500 11565 1975 15386 6108 48497 4459 1807 1427s51976 18111 1322 91856 57587 149446942 53396 5218 1924 16040 1548 103181977 21320 7811 ampl7 16544958295 015 2037 170a-amp 1773 115059 669481978 25097 l20078715 63194 6849 2145 195711979 29539 9656
1999 127574 716Z8 19920268091 771amp8 2250 21332 2224 140813 76283 217096 1980 34767 10699 73368 8699 2360 23252 24761981 40921 11854 155623 81242 23686579054 9803 1982
2476 25345 2756 172211 86522 25n7344816e4 13134 85181 11048 25971983 27626 306e7 190820 92146 28296756689 14553 91782 124521984 65759
2724 30112 3414 211729 98136 30986515863 98666 1369o7 2847 32521 3755 233111 104024 337135 1985 76281 17290 106066 15067 1986
2975 35123 4131 256935 110266 36720188486 18847 114021 165731987 102644 20543 3109 37932 4544 283515 116882 4003997122573 18231 3249 40967 49981988 119067 313207 123894 43710222392 131766 20054
1989 135736 3395 44244 5498 346418 131328 47774724183 141319 21558 3531 47342 5993 379664 138551 518216
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 12 ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMAND
YEAR MWH SOLD MUH LOSS MUH LOAD MN SOLD MUH LOSS MUH LOAD MUH FACTOR MW
1974 52500 1050 53550 63158 8842 72000 125550 03999 35 1975 1151 58738 91856 12859 104715 163454 04024 461976 1245 63512 103182 14445 117627 181139 040491977 511338 68286 115059 16108 131167 1994541978 04074 51432 73060 127574 17860 145434 2184941979 04099 607 1525 77808 140813 19713 160526 238335 04129 65 1980 81242 162o4 82866 155623 21787 177410 260277 04159 711981 86522 1730 88252 172211 24109 196320 284572 041891982 92146 771842 93988 190820 26714 21753e4 311523 04219 841983 98136 1962 100098 211729 29642 241371 341469 042491984 104024 2080 106104 2331191 32635
91 265746 371851 04279 99
1985 110266 2205 112471 25e935 35970 292905 405377 043091906 116e82 1072337 119219 283515 39692 323207 44242o6 04339 1161987 123894 2477 126371 31320e7 43848 357056 483427 043691988 131328 2626 133954 346418 126 1989
48498 394916 528871 04399 13713855e1 2771 141322 379664 53152 432816 574138 04424 14m
---------------
----------------- ------------------------------- -------- ----------- -------------
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONES SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CENTERS 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 LOAD ZONE 13
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH ----------------- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING RETAIL SALES
WHOLESALE ENERGY
ENERGY SALES
- ---------- ---------- ------------shy-------m--- m--------- ---------shy
1974 1107e2 105 99652 609 667 6279 371 118757 0C 118757
1975 15419 126 135009 837 844 10750 453 163441 00 163441 1976 20010 170 165483 1111 923 15220 530 20345)0 00 203450 1977 25226 220 195957 1424 1002 19690 60amp7 244129 00 244129 1978 31068 276 226430 1775 1081 24161 684 285479 00 2b5479 1979 36038 325 253601 2094 1156 28509 759 322486 00 2246amp
1980 41805 384 284033 2471 1237 33641 842 364416 00 364416 1981 48493 45o3 318117 2916 1324 39697 93o5 411938 00 41193o8 1992 56252 535 356291 3441 1416 46842 1038 465818 00 465818 1983 65253 631 399046 4060 151amp6 55274 1152 52693o5 00 526935 1984 74388 7392 438951 4710 161e4 63565 12697 585231 00 5e5l3o1
1985 84803 8499 482846 5464 1719 73100 1394 650177 00 650177 1986 96675 985 531130 6338 1831 84065 1534 722561 00 722561 1987 110210 1143 584243 7352 1950 96675 1687 803262 00 803262 1988 125639 1326 642668 8528 2077 111176 1856 893272 00 893272 1989 140716 1511 694081 9723 2201 124517 2023 974775 00 974775
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 13
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMAND YEAR MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR Mw
1974 00 C0 00 118757 16625 135382 135382 03499 44
1975 00 00 00 163441 22881 186322 186327 03524 60 1976 00 00 00 203450 28482 231933 23193 03549 794 1977 00 00 00 244129 34178 278307 278307 03574 88 1978 00 00 00 285479 39967 325446 325446 03599 103 1979 00 00 00 322486 45148 367634 367634 03629 115
1980 00 00 00 364416 51018 415434 415434 03659 129 1981 00 00 00 4119398 57671 469609 46960amp9 03689 145 1982 00 00 00 465818 65214 531032 531032 03719 162 1983 00 00 00 526935 73770 600705 600705 03749 1892 1984 00 00 00 585231 81932 667163 667163 03774 201
19e5 00 00 00 650177 91024 741201 741201 03799 222 1986 00 00 00 722561 101158 823719 823719 03824 245 1987 00 00 00 803262 112456 915718 915718 03849 271 1988 00 00 00 893272 125058 1018330 1018330 03874 299 1989 00 00 00 974775 136468 1111243 1111243 03894 325
- -------
--------------------- ---------------- -------
--------------- ---------- ------- ---------- ------- ----------
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZO4ES SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CENTERS 141 14Z 143 144 145 LOAD ZONE 14
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH--------------- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGY
YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
1974 15757 1662 3571 1368 191o9 145 425 24851 00 24651
1975 16794 2018 4497 1565 2506 181 582 28146 co 2814s61976 18118 2419 4851 1740 2657 211 845 30844 00 30b44 1977 19547 2857 520e4 1914 2807 240 1164 33736 00 33736 1978 21089 3329 5558 2089 2957 270 1538 3683o2 0OO 36u32 1979 22776 3828 5947 2277 3104 302 1968 40204 00 40204
1980 24598 4402 6363 248ol 3260 338 2519 4396=4 C0 4396e4 1981 26566 5062 6808 270s5 3423 37e9 322o5 4b17O 00 48170 1982 28691 5822 7285 2948 3594 424 4128 52895 coo 52t95 1983 30986 6695 7795 3214 377o2 475 528o4 58226 00 5k226 1984 3408s5 7767 8496 3471 4000 542 660e5 64969 00 64969
1985 37493 9009 92Lo1 374o9 4240 618 825o7 72630 000 72630 1986 41243 104591 10095 4048 4494 704 10321 81359 00 813591987 45367 1212amp3 11007 4372 4764 803 12901 91337 00 91337 1988 49904 1406s3 11994 4722 5050 916 1612 102778 00 102778 1989 55892 1645s4 13433 5053 5403 1062 19352 116652 00 116652
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 14
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMAND YEAR MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW
1974 00 00 00 2485o1 347o9 28330 28330 03499 09
1975 00 00 00 28146 3940 32086 32086 03509 100 1976 00 00 00 30844 4318 3516e2 35162 03519 11 1977 00 00 00 33736 4723 38459 38459 03529 12 1978 00 00 00 36832 5156 41988 41988 03539 13 1979 00 00 00 40204 562m8 45832 45832 03549 1amp4
1980 00 00 00 43964 6154 50118 50118 03559 161981 00 00 00 48170 6743 54913 54913 0o3569 17 1982 00 00 00 52895 7405 60300 60300 0amp3579 19 1983 Oo 0000 58226 8151 66377 56377 03589 21 1984 00 00 00 64969 9095 74064 74064 03604 23
1985 00 00 O 72630 10168 82798 8279o8 03619 261986 00 00 00 8135e9 11390 92749 92749 03634 29 1987 00 00 00 9133o7 12787 104124 104124 03649 3o2 1988 00 00 00 102778 1438m8 11716s6 11716s6 03664 36 1989 00 00 00 116652 16331 132983 132983 03679 41
--------------
-------------- --------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------- -------- --------- ----------
-------- --- -- --- ------- ------- ----------------- ------ --
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONES SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CENTERS 151 LOAD ZONE 15
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH -------------------- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGYYEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
1974 14717 1245e2 56329 1294 724 11064 316 96899 00 9gb99
1975 15687 13640 64255 156r4 95o4 1378o9 404 110296 00 11Ci961976 18713 14182 72287 1777 1039 17141 502 125644 00 1256441977 22323 14690 81324 1989 1123 20916 616 142985 00 1amp298s51978 26629 15170 91491 2202 1208 25113 744 162560 00 1625601979 31768 15625 102927 2413 1292 2973o3 886 184647 00 lb4647
1980 37899 16093 115793 2645 1383 35204 1057 21007o6 00 210J7645214 16576 1302671981 2a99 1479 41682 1260 239379 00 2393791982 53940 17073 146550 3177 1583 49352 1502 27310 00 2731801983 64351 17586 164869 3482 1694 58432 17960 312206 00 31220e61984 74003 18069 181356 3760 1795 67782 2094 34b863 00 34863
1985 8510e4 18566 199492 4061 1903 78627 2450 39020s6 00 3902061986 97870 19077 219441 4386 2017 91207 2867 436868 00 436d681987 112550 19601 241385 4737 2138 105800 3355 489570 00 4b95701988 129433 20140 26552o4 5116 2267 122728 39295 549135 00 5491351989 143670 20644 288093 544o9 2380 139910 4514 604663 00 604663
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 15
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMANDYEAR MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW - -
1974 00 00 00 96899 13565 110464 110464 03499 36
1975 00 00 00 110296 15441 125737 125737 03524 401976 00 00 00 125644 17590 143234 143234 03549 461977 00 00 00 142985 20017 16300o2 163002 093574 5o21978 00 00 00 162560 22758 185318 185318 093599 581979 00 00 00 184647 25850 210497 210497 03629 66
1980 00 00 00 210076 29410 239486 239466 03659 741981 00 00 00 239379 33513 27289o2 272892 03689 841982 00 00 00 273180 38245 311425 311425 03719 951983 00 00 00 312206 43708 355914 355914 03749 lOd1984 00 00 00 348863 48840 397703 397703 03774 120
1985 00 00 00 390206 54628 444834 444834 03799 1331986 00 00 00 436868 61161 4980299 49802e9 03824 1481987 00 00 00 4895790 68539 558109 558109 03849 1651988 00 00 00 549135 76878 626013 626013 03874 lk41989 00 00 00 604663 84652 689315 6F9315 03894 202
--- ---- --------- ------ ----- ------- ----- --- -------- --------- ----------
-------------------------- ----------- ------- ------ ---------
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND M EMERGY COSUMPTION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONES SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CENTERS 161 162 163 l64 Lampa- 16amp6 LOAD ZONE 16
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONsUMPTICN - MWH T----OTAL TOTAL TOTAL
RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGY YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPIN SALES ENERGY SALES
1974 00 00 00 00 0000 00 00 47720 47720
1975 00 00 00 o0 00 00 00 00 53867 53a67 1976 00 0000 00 00 00 00 00 60410 604101977 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 67091 670911978 00 0 00 00 00 00 cOo 00 73910 739101979 00 COO 00 100 00 00 00 00 805fo1561
19p0 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 87812 87612 1981 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 95715 95715 1982 00 00 00 00 00 00 COO 00 104329 104329 1983 00 0000 00 00 00 00 00 113719 1137191984 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 125091 125091
1985 00 0000 00 00 00 00 00 137600 137600 1986 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 151360 151360 1987 00 00 00 0000 0O 00 00 166496 166496 1988 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 183146 131461989 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 205123 205123
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FCR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 16
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMAND YEAR MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW
1974 47720 1431 49151 00 00 00 49151 03699 15
1975 5386amp7 1616 5548o3 00 00 00 55483 03709 17 1976 60410 1812 62222 00 00 00 62222 03719 191977 67091 2012 69103 00 00 00 69103 03729 21 1978 73910 2217 7612amp7 00 00 00 76127 03739 23 1979 80561 2416 82977 00 00 00 82977 03754 25
i980 87812 2634 90446 00 00 00 90446 03769 297 1981 95715 2871 98586 00 00 00 98586 03784 291982 104329 3129 10745 00 00 00 10745b 03799 321983 113719 3411 117130 00 00 C0 117130 03814 35 1984 125091 3752 128843 00 00 00 12884o3 03834 3o
1985 1376090 4127 141728 Oo 00 00 141728 03854 411986 151360 4540 155900 00 00 00 155900 03874 45 1987 166496 4994 171490 00 00 00 171490 03894 53 1988 183146 5494 188640 00 00 Oo 188640 03914 55 1989 205123 6153 211276 00 co 00 211276 03934 61
--- ------------------------- ---------- ---------- --------- -------- --------- ----------
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONES SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CENTERS 171 LOAD ZONE 17
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH ---------- ----------- TOTAL TOTAL TOTALRETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGY YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
1974 000 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 46550 46550
1975 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 5342o3 534231976 00 00 00 000 00 00 00 00 61304 613041977 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 70347 703471978 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0o 8072 d07241979 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 92025 92025
1980 00 00 00 000 00 00 00 00 104908 1049081981 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 119596 11 5961982 00 00 00 00 00 00 060 00 136339 1363391983 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 155426 1554261984 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 174078 17407b
1985 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 194967 1949671986 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 218363 I1987 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 244567 j45671988 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 273915 2739151989 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 301306 301306
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 17
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMANDYEAR MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD PWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW -----~~------------------------------------------------------------------- ------ ------shy
1974 46550 931 47481 00 00 00 47481 03699 14
1975 53423 1068 54491 00 00 00 54491 03714 161976 61304 1226 62530 00 00 00 62530 03729 191977 70347 1406 71753 00 00 00 71753 03744 211978 80724 1614 82338 00 00 00 82338 03759 241979 92025 1840 93865 00 00 coo 93865 03779 28
1980 104908 209o8 107006 00 00 00 107006 03799 321981 11959o6 2391 121987 00 00 00 121987 03819 361982 13633o9 2726 139065 00 00 00 13906o5 03839 411983 155426 3108 15853a4 00 00 00 158534 03859 461984 174C7amp8 3481 177559 00 00 00 177559 03874 52 1985 194967 3899 198866 00 00 00 198866 0389 5t1986 218363 4367 222730 00 00 00 222730 03904 651987 244567 4891 249458 00 00 00 249458 03919 721988 273915 5478 279393 00 00 00 79393 03934 811989 301306 6026 307332 00 00 00 307332 03944 8t
---------------
---- ------------ ------------ --------
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTICN FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONES SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEMZONE LOAD CENTERS C 0 E R A M LOAD ZONE 1t
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH -------------------- TOTAL TOTAL TOTALYEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT RETAILPUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION WHOLESALE ENERGYPUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
1974 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 72236 7223961975 00 00 00 001976 co 0000 OO 00
00 OO 94b4o2 94t4200 001977 00 00 00 0oo00 00 00 125331 125331001978 00 00 0000 00 00 160073 1CGC73001979 00 00 0000 00 00 00 199067 1990670000 00 00 00 240b71 240b711980 00 00 00 00 001981 00 00 0000 00 29145300 291453001982 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 352659 352659001983 00 0000 00 00 00 00 00 426717 426717001984 00 00 00 0000 516327 516327coo 00 00 00 00 00 609266 609266
1985 00 00 00 001986 Oo 00Oo 00 00 OO 00 718934 71e93400 001987 00 00 00 0000 84834200 94n34200 001988 00 0000 00 00 00 1001044 100134e00 001989 00 00000 00 00 00 1181231 II1l13100 00 00 0000
1358416 135b416
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 18 ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS
YEAR MWH SOLD ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERSMWH LOSS TOTAL ENERGY LOADMWH LOAD MWH SOLD MAX DEMANDMWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW -~~~-------------
1974 ------------72236 -------------216s7 ------- ---shy74403 00 00 00 74403 03399 24 1975 94842 2845 97687 00 001976 125331 00 97687 034493759 129090 3200 001977 160073 480s2 00 129C990 03499164875 42001978 199067 5972
00 00 164875 03549205039 53001979 240871 7226 00 00 2050399 03599248097 6500 00 00 248C97 093679 76
1980 291453 8743 300196 00 001981 352659 1057o9 00 300196 03759363238 9100 001982 426717 12801 00 363238 03839439518 10700 001983 00516327 15489 531816 439518 03919 12700 001984 00609266 53181618277 627543 03999 15100 00 00 627543 04099 1741985 718934 2156o8 740502 00 001986 848342 00 7405C225450 873792 00
04199 2n11987 1001044 30031
00 00 873792 042991031C7s5 231001988 1181231 35436 1216667 00 00 103107j 04399 z6700 00 001989 1358416 1216667 0449940752 1399168 30800 00 00 139916o8 04579 34b
----------------
------------- --------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------- -------- --------- ----------
-- ------ --------- --------- ---------
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONES SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM ZONE LOAD CENTERS C 0 E R D R I LOAD ZONE 19
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH -------------------- TOTAL TOTAL TCTAL
YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG RETAIL WHOLESALE EItERGY
IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
1974 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 106431 6431
1975 00 00 00 000 00 00 00 00 141645 1416451976 060 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 163654 16365o41977 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 167014 1701amp41978 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 211724 2117241979 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 241345 241365
1980 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 275156 2751561981 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 313678 3136781982 00 00 00 00 Coo 00 00 00 357593 3575931983 03 O3 00 00 00 00 00 00 407656 4076561984 00 00 00 060 00 00 00 00 468804 468804
1985 00 000 00 00 00 00 00 00 539125 5391251986 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 619993 6199931987 00 00 OcO 00 00 00 00 00 712992 7129921988 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 819941 8199411989 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 918333 918333
4S TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 19 euro
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS YEAR
ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMANDMWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW -
1974 106431 3192 109623 00 00 00 109623 03599 34
1975 141645 4249 145894 000 00 00 145894 03649 451976 163654 4909 168563 00 00 00 168563 03699 521977 187014 56160 192624 00 00 00 192624 03749 5081978 21172s4 6351 218075 00 00 00 218075 03799 651979 241365 7240 248605 00 00 00 2486Cdeg5 03859 73
190 275156 8254 283410 00 00 00 283410 039191981 313678 9410 32308o8 00 00 00 G2
323088 039791982 357593 1072o7 368320 00 00 00 92
368320 040391983 407656 1222o9 419885 00 104
00 00 419885 04099 1161984 468804 14064 482868 00 OO 00 482868 04179 131 1985 539125 16173 555298 00 00 00 555298 04259 1411986 619993 18599 638592 00 00 00 638592 043391987 71299amp2 21389 734381
1697 00 00 00 734381 04419 1891988 819941 24598 844539 00 00 00 844539 04499 2141989 918333 27549 945882 00 00 00 9458o2 04lt9 236
-----------------
-- -------------------------- ---------- --------- --------- -------- --------- ----------
-- ------ ------------ ------------ --------- ------------ ------- ----------
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONES SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CENTERS 201 202 20s3 LOAD ZONE 20
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUPTION - MWH -------------------- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGYYEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
1978 39285 3634 16830 2415 2097 1800 1236 67497 00 674997 979 42781 4485 20078 2670 2191 2136 131s5 75659 00 75659
1980 46588 5248 2395amp3 2954 22d9 2536 1399 84970 00 84970 1981 5073o5 6140 2857a6 3267 239s3 3010 1488 95611 00 95611 1982 55250 7184 34091 3613 2500 3573 1584 107798 00 10779d1983 60168 8405 40671 399s6 2613 4241 1685 121781 00 121781 1R4 6552s3 9834 48520 4420 2730 5034 1793 137857 00 137z57
19PI5 71354 1150e6 57885 4888 2853 597a6 1908 156373 00 156373 19e6 77705 13462 69056 5407 2982 7093 2030 177737 00 177737 1987 84620 15751 82384 5980 3116 8420 2160 202434 00 20243o4 1988 92152 18429 98285 661e4 3256 9994 2298 231030 00 31030 1989 9860a2 20640 113027 7143 3370 11494 2413 256692 00 256692
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 20
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMAND YEAR MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW
1978 00 00 00 67497 9449 76946 76946 03550 24 1S79 00 00 00 75659 10592 86251 86251 03554 27
1980 00 00 00 84970 11695 96865 96665 093559 311931 00 00 00 95611 13385 108996 10e99s6 03564 34 1962 00 00 00 107798 1509i 122889 122889 03569 3e9 1981 00 00 00 121781 1704a9 138830 138830 03574 4amp4 1984 00 00 00 137857 19299 157156 157156 03579 50
1985 00 00 00 15637amp3 21892 17b265 178265 03584 56 1986 00 00 00 1777397 24883 202620 2 2620 035L9 64187 00 00 00 202434 28340 23077s4 230774 03594 73 1988 00 00 00 231030 32344 26337amp4 263374 03599 831989 00 00 00 25669e2 35936 29262amp8 292628 03609 92
---------------------- ----------- ------ ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------- -------- --------- ----------
----------------------- ------------ -------- ------------ ------------ -------- ------------ ------------ ------- ----------
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONES SUPPLED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
LOAD ZO3N 2ZONE LOAD CENTERS 211 21o2 21j3
------------------- RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH -------------------- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
RETAIL WHOLESALE ENEPOY
YEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
1978 15535 4338 13050 1978 1329 480 86o9 37579 00 37579 1979 17135 5019 15829 2163 1391 577 931 43048 00 43C4b
5807 19201 2367 1456 694 998 49425 00 49425
1981 20846 671o8 23291 2589 1525 835 1070 56878 00 56t7o
1982 2299o3 7773 28252
1980 18900
2833 1597 1005 1147 5603 00 t6Z3
1983 25362 8994 34269 3099 1672 1209 1230 75837 00 75t37
1984 2797o4 10406 41569 3391 1750 1454 1318 87865 00 o7o65
3709 1832 1750 1413 102026 00 102026
1986 1985 30855 12039 50423
34034 13930 61164 4058 1919 2105 1515 11872o6 00 11872o6
1987 37539 16117 74191 4439 2009 2532 1624 138455 00 13d455
1988 41406 18647 89994 4857 2103 3C47 1741 161798 00 161798
1989 45132 20885 1C619o3 5245 2177 3595 1846 185076 00 185076
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 21
ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTCMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMAND
YEAR MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW
1978 00 OC 00 3757a9 5261 42840 42840 03300 i4
1979 00 c0 00 4304e8 6026 4907e4 49074 03305 16
49425 6919 56344 56344 03309 191980 00 00 00 1981 00 00 00 56878 7962 6484 64840 03314 22
1982 00 00 00 65603 9184 74787 74787 03319 25
1983 00 00 00 75837 10617 86454 86454 03324 29
1984 cOo 00 00 87865 12301 100166 100166 03329 3o4
Cml 102026 14283 116309 116309 03334 3amp9
1986 00 00 00 118726 16621 135347 13534o7 03339 46
1987 00 00 00 138455 19383 157838 157838 03344 53
1988 00 00 00 161798 22651 184449 184449 03349 62
1989 00 00 00 185076 25910 210986 210986 03359 71
1985 00 00
--------------------
---------------------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ---------- --------- -------- --------- ----------
--------------- ------------ -------- ------------ ------------ -------- ------------ ------------ ------- ----------
LONG-RANGE LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONES SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOAD CENTERS 221 222 223 224 LOAD ZONE 22
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH -------------------- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL RETAIL WHOLESALE E ERGYYEAR RESIDENTIAL COMEPCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY GALES
1981 20C05 2646 11700 1035 1148 10500 457 47494 00 474941982 21628 3053 13478 1141 1199 12243 482 53226 00 532261983 23380 3523 15527 1259 1253 14275 508 59728 00 5i72t1984 25274 4066 17887 138d 1310 16645 536 67108 00 67138
1985 27321 4692 2U606 1531 1369 19408 566 754995 00 754951986 29534 5415 23738 1689 1430 22629 597 85035 00 8533e51987 31926 6249 27346 1863 149o4 26386 630 95897 00 95o971988 34513 721o1 3150amp3 2055 1562 30766 664 10827s6 00 lOb761989 37308 8322 36291 2267 163a2 35873 70el 122397 00 122397
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 22 ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMAND
YEAR MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW
1981 00 00 00 474994 6649 54143 54143 03355 10U1982 00 00 00 53226 7451 60677 60677 03359 201983 00 00 00 5972o8 8361 68089 66089 03364 231984 00 00 00 67108 9395 76503 76503 03369 2o5
1985 00 00 00 75495 10569 86064 86064 03374 2491986 00 00 00 85035 1190o4 96939 96939 03379 321987 00 00 00 95897 13425 109322 109322 03384 361988 00 00 00 108276 15158 123434 123434 03389 41
1989 00 00 00 122397 1713o5 - 139532 139532 03399 46
-------------------
---------------------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------- -------- --------- ----------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------
LONG-RAN3E LOAD FORECAST OF MAX DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONES SUPPLIED FROM INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
ZONE LOA3 CENTERS 231 LOAD ZONE 23
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH -------------------- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGYYEAR RESIDENTIAL COVMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
1981 2990 64a8 1350 340 156 200 131 5815 00 5o15 1982 3265 747 1594 360 163 235 138 6504 00 6504 1983 356a5 862 1882 38s2 171 26 145 7288 00 728b 1984 3893 995 2223 406 180 324 153 8178 00 6178
1985 4251 114e9 2626 430 189 381 162 9191 C 9191 1986 4642 1326 3101 457 199 447 1741 10345 00 1034519e7 5069 1530 3662 485 209 52e6 180 11664 00 116641988 553o5 1766 4325 514 219 618 190 13171 00 1317e11989 6045 20368 5108 546 230 726 201 14896 00 14b96
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL CUSTOMERS LOCATED WITHIN ENALUF LOAD ZONE 23 ENERGY TO WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS ENERGY TO RETAIL CUSTOMERS TOTAL ENERGY LOAD MAX DEMAND
YEAR MWM SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH SOLD MWH LOSS MWH LOAD MWH FACTOR MW
1981 00 00 00 5815 814 6629 6629 03604 0 1982 00 00 00 6504 910 7414 7414 03609 002 Ln1983 00 0c1984 00 00 00 72E8 1023 8308 838 03614 02 000 8178 1144 9322 9322 03619 02
1985 CO0 00 00 9191 128a6 10477 10477 03624 03 1986 00 00 00 10345 1448 11793 11793 03629 031987 Co0 00 00 1166v4 1632 132996 1329o6 03634 04 1988 00 00 00 13171 1843 15014 15014 C3639 041989 00 00 00 14896 2085 16981 16981 03649 05
IB51
hi
N
9
9
9
0)
gt-
L
0
t
-4
r-0 O0
0ltO
I
r-- 4
v~A~~~-O304
-4
N4Oo
0i 0
-x1 4
N N
(cn
t 4n
99
Ow
t f
N
4gt
L)
~ oo0o
oo41000
n
Z 00
1
hi
Ci
w
40
hi
o
oo3
4
I
4
4
3
lt404
0000 00000
-Z
0
InltI
0 ro
4
4tO
4 0
It0
0
Li
-Wi
I
N
Mt
1 0 0-4-4
N NL
m4
w
i0
w
0 -K
I
I ~
3j 0
0 lt
1 0000
00000
4 9
I
0
0
m
a-0
0O
4
L-j4
0
r1n
0 r--
M
0i
ix X
I
IN
r-y~
t
I
ll
I O
ltwl
I z
h
1I
0o -t
-o
o 4ooon
01
7 00
10
f (
-J
Lflj
LA
L
O
4O
-
0 r0-c
CO N004N
3 I-
D
fn
OU0
010
0)
4-
-4
a
0 0~34~~~~~
44Z)O
4
4O~tf
4D
M
NO~ -4U(~f
13 I
04
1 ~
04
-6
4 C(1
r 04ID4
(U(
0
cI
0
U0
m4
4r
4OUI
4i
-4 Tt L
A r-
O40I
00c x
I C
A
mm
A
4-
-4 r-4
U)
3t
U
x wi
r U
I It
shy4
0
1O10
m
0-(U)
C
r1 h0
-I
4
04-4
1 09
4II
ID
otn
L
LA 4z
44
LA
o 0
mrit-
4 4l
qI
In
10~4-
Li
3
3
Li
-4-4
z00 hi
34 Ln
1 hi
I
W
hill
10 -
0OU t
Nibull -
4
Oil
04c
It rI-
D
a
D
N
I
01
L~n
4(t 1
3
z~9 99999
8
3
OZ
-
I 04
4
O-
4
Z0
w
fi-shyw
o4OLA
W
LL
3
0 ~
0 4
0
Li
gt-0
J 0 1
WI
X
El
(tI 0I-
9
n O
0-4
N
--4
N
~ m
ampA
lOiC
w
-shy44J4
N-4
w hi
0
Vi)4 I)
x 3 1
o
o
0
N Lf lN
NOWN-
M)
NNnf
t
o
o
O
0
-4 r- m
0 a4U
hi So
Ihi
gt1
z
3
0 1
hi
hi 04C
0 0 zJ
ix~
41
00 00
00000
0n
0
I-
-00
~ -
r4
aI4
r--
o -
00
a oI-
r-0 -
U00
4 6
0000 4
e 00000
4-t
m
(nMf
4n
Q 0t0
N
I-
ir 44
U)
V)
341 w
hi
01
0 03
0-1 -
n I--
X
4z
00
3 hi
4
r-QDt
00-
4 -4 0
0 t
44
99 ix~
hi
0 0000
00000 0 ~ I
~Iv
E
It
- 4-N
fni
m-0
A~N
-t
NNfwl
i
U4
4
0
0
0
0
I-
I
-4
w
hi
I
0t D
I
0 U
) I0
1 U-
Il
v (4
4(4-D
0 4-
0000 0
C)0
00
NS
LAnr
0 hT
ID
-
0-nA
rOONO
4
t4
00
0
00
0
4~~~~~~~ N
A
~ 0O)3
I-
I-
0
hiI
0 wi~
) L
I
) I) lt
lt
1
0
54
Ix4 13
LA
It
4 4 N
m
U
u
L D
r-
00 0
It1
14 (1
n4
in
a f-
Go
0 1
i 0000O
Il~O
0 Q
OO
ON
70000 0
G
UO
a W
I O
OO
4J
N
--4
-4-4
-4
v-4
14 4
44
-1-
)-I 1-
It-4 4
4-4
APPENDIX IB
PROGRAM (SINL0D) PRINTOUT
SUMMARY FORECAST
OF
TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND ENERGY GENERATION
FOR
INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM SERVICE AREA
---------------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------- ---------- --------- ---------
--- ------------------------------------------------------------------------ -----------------
SUMMARY OF TOTAL ENERGY SALES FOR ENALUF LOAD ZONES COMPRISING THE SERVICE AREA ENCOMPASSED BY INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
PROBABLE LOAD GROWTH
RETAIL SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - MWH -------------------- TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL RETAIL WHOLESALE ENERGYYEAR RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC LTG IRRIGATION PUMPING SALES ENERGY SALES
1974 1103485 638558 2691665 213291 112766 307696 265186 5332648 951618 6284267
1975 129a014 752951 311506e6 277416 122906 361549 30939s9 6537306 1197918 7435222 1976 1379708 801416 361548o6 290312 132312 406199 353791 6979226 1389815 83690411977 1465300 8502500 4174150 303596 141782 451554 402339 7788972 1597767 91t 78978 1609685 907657 4794158 3219092 154756 499443 457786 8745387 182193 10567327 1Y79 170064o8 955818 5317832 336269 164388 543951 511884 9530791 2062916 11593707
1980 1799875 1C073540 5901563 352143 17466o2 593531 572634 10401777 233823o2 12740012 1981 1946782 1067427 6569231 372027 187681 659942 642104 11445162 2653137 1409o297 1982 2069452 1127574 7299251 391818 199459 723619 718908 12530077 3013735 15543812 1983 2204288 1192447 8115726 413918 212033 794996 805290 1373869a7 3427147 17165842 1984 2336230 125533o9 8873826 433971 223514 861684 886707 14871267 3853011 18724277
1985 2480381 1323092 9708817 455904 235656 935520 97669o6 16116067 4335371 20451437 1986 2638150 1396274 1062962o7 479939 248500 101739o6 1076210 17486092 4882171 223682701587 2811ii5 1475532 11646477 506337 262087 1108326 1186313 18996187 5502536 24498725 198 3001067 1561618 12771112 53537o5 276466 1209469 1308207 20663307 6206932 2687024o5 1989 3132303 1643355 1376157amp2 56026o8 289077 1300617 1416961 22153865 689102e7 29044690
FORECAST OF TOTAL LOAD DEMAND AND GROSS ENERGY GENERATION FOR INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM SUPPLYING SERVICE AREA LOAD ZONES
TOTAL SYSTEM LOSSES GROSS ENERGY NON-COINCIDENT PCT COINCIDENT DEMAND TOTAL LOAD PCTENERGY SALES + COMPANY USAGE GENERATION ZONAL DEMAND COINC DEMAND LOSS DEMAND LOAD
YEAR MWH PCT MWH fVWH MW FACTOR MW PCTo MW MW FACTOR --------- ----------------shy
1974 628426a 190 119401o 747827 168amp0 0699 1175 90 105 1281 665
1975 1976
743522s 836904
188 187
1405259 157337
884047 994242
1987 2244
0703 0706
1397 1585
8o7 85
122 136
1520 172e2
663 659
1977 938673 186 175531 1114205 2518 0709 1787 83 150 1937 656 1978 1056732a 185 196552 1253284o 2846 0713 2030 81 166 2196 651 1979 1159370 184 214483 1373854 3119 0716 2235 79 178 2414 649
1980 1981
1274001a 1409829
183 182
234415 257998
1508417 1667828
3425 3792
0719 0723
2465 2742
7o7 7o5
192 208
2658 2951
647 645
1982 1983 1984
1554381 1716584 1872427
181 180 179
282897 310701s -37036a
1837278o 2027285 2209454
4177 4608 5021
0726 0729 0733
3035 3363 3682
7o3 71 69
224 242 257
3259 3606 3939
643 641 640
1985 2045143 178 366080 241124 5479 0736 4036 67 274 4310 638 1986 1987
2235827 2449872
177 176
398154 433626
2634981 2883499
5984 6545
0739 0743
4428 4865
65 63
292 311
4720 5176
63o7 635
1988 2697C24 175 472915 3159939 7170 0746 5353 61 3331 5685 634
APPENDIX IB
T A B L A S
y
F I G U R A
EN RELACION CON PROYECCION D- CARGA
T A B L E S
A N I)
F I G U R E
RELATING TO LOAD FORECAST
TABLE IB1 I1STORICAL RECORD FOR ENALU F INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM SERVICE AREA
RESIDENTIALTotal Energy Sales-WH Average Number of Customers Average Usage-KWHCustomer
1960
243469 24250 1004
1961
253038 25075 1009
1962
276696 28221
980
1963
321805 32167 ](OO
1964
365812 34945 1047
1965
441092 38962 1132
1966
580332 48294 1202
1967
712115 58581 1216
1968
827083 63150 1310
1969
953150 66025 1310
1970
992387 68797 1442
1971
1053208 71805 1467
1972
1151049 75475 1525
1973
853622 59842 1426
1974
1095270 72847 1504
CONMIERCIALTotal Energy Sales-WH Average Number of ustomers Average Usage-KWHcustomer
61126 145
42156
82064 220
37302
99616 291
34232
127873 355
36021
172261 425
40532
206914 502
41218
279644 1239
22570
342403 1948
17577
401981 2005
20049
470575 2084
22580
527211 2184
24140
615415 2361
26066
667171 2382
28009
412049 2139
19264
638465 2340
27285
INDUSTRIALTotal Energy Sales-NH Average Number of Customers Average Usage-WHHiCustomer
168655 106
159108
215737 139
155206
273191 144
189716
330539 161
205304
433072 212
204279
538154 252
213553
664512 384
173050
856051 569
150448
1279717 602
212578
1474449 602
244925
1768272 558
316895
1824820 438
416626
2072668 442
468929
2175156 429
507029
2681702 480
558688
GOER NTTotal Energy Sales-WH verage Number of Customers Average Usage-KWHCustomer
44402 305
14558
49049 235
20872
55954 279
20055
74253 287
25872
82667 320
25833
108503 346
31359
119112 409
29123
129275 496
26064
168689 622
27120
196065 658
29797
206398 655
31511
246350 682
36122
283223 762
37168
153347 633
24225
212779 757
28108
PUBLIC LIGHTINGTotal Energy Sales-Y H Average Number of Customers Average Usage-iKWHCustomer
14997 1CO
14997
14981 123
12180
17747 328
3411
20343 443
4592
213667 580
4081
27001 712
3792
38789 862
4500
48304 1035 4667
60245 1134 5313
66048 1099 6010
77555 1047 7407
84248 874
9639
97168 477
20371
91774 478
19200
110723 528
20970
IPRIGATIONTotal Energy Sales-M Average Number of Gustomers Average Usage-KWHCustomer
555 5
9250
8774 16
54838
37793 49
77129
38698 61
63439
42493 67
63422
44638 70
63769
55996 80
69995
90840 ill
81838
129463 147
88070
148974 188
79241
160312 198
80966
211514 234
90391
282337 228
123832
268318 262
102411
356146 307
116008
PUPINGTotal Energy Sales-MWH 5- )19 Average Number of Customers 2 Average Usage-KWHCustomer2895950 1
62036 5
240720
66203 9
735589
74841 12
623675
80073 20
400365
86959 24
362329
89442 28
319436
99338 34
292171
114331 38
300871
133962 46
291222
153714 56
274489
178003 70
254290
209611 76
275804
227465 82
277396
265017 93
284965
WHIOLESALETotal Energy Sales-MWH Average Number of Customers Average Usage-YMWCustomer
20 6772 14
1477
222509 16
1391
263751 14
1834
294693 12
2456
360081 11
3273
420919 11
3827
351910 8
4399
224209 6
3737
240276 6
4035
280602 6
4677
292550 6
4876
301333 6
5022
619312 8
7741
861829 9
9576
973110 9
1081
TOTAL RETAIL AND 1HOLESALETotal Energy Sales-MVH Average Number of Customers Average Usage-kWHCustomer
797895 24928 3201
908188 25829 3516
1090951 29335 3719
1283045 33498 3830
1560126 36580 4265
1874180 40879 4585
2179737 51304 4249
2502535 62780 3986
3223585 67704 4761
3723825 70708 5266
4178399 73501 5685
4514891 76470 5904
5382539 7Q850 6741
5043560 63874 7896
6333212 77361 8187
System Losses amp Co=pany Usage-NWH 23 9253 251965 303089 384796 422933 425968 512269 657781 563892 660771 776018 722443 954195 984221 1193600
System Gross Generation-57H 1037148 1160153 1394040 1667841 1983059 2300148 2692006 3160316 3787477 4383896 4956417 5237334 6336734 6027781 7526812 Annual Sysrem Load Factor- 572 528 547 560 593 586 546 574 623 646 627 544 585 601 666 Maximum System Demand - MW 207 251 291 340 382 448 563 628 694 775 903 1100 1237 14 5 290
TABIA IB 2 - TABLE IB2
SISTEMA TNKTERCONECToDO NACIONAL National Tnterconncted System
DESCENSO HISTORICO DE PERDIDA DL EIERGIA DEL SISTEMA Y CONSUMO PROPIO D LA COHPAIA Historical Decline Of System Energy Losses and Company Usage
VENTAS DE ENERGIA ASO Energy Sales Year KW
1960 103714830
1961 116015290
1962 139404050
1963 166784139
1964 198305909
1965 230014839
1966 269200634
1967 316031 614
1968 378747662
1969 438389626
1970 495641669
1971 523733383
1972 633673404
973 602778135
1974 752681244
GENERACION EN BRLTTO Gross Generation
IKWH
79789500
90818800
109095100
128304500
156012600
187418000
217973700
250253500
322358500
372382500
417839900
451489100
538253900
504356000
632842000
SISTEMA DF ENERGIA PERDIDAS Y USO DE CDARIA System Energy Losses and Company Usage
KWH DE VENTAS-Sales -GENEgACION-Generation
23925330 30z 231
25196490 277 217
30308950 278 217
38479639 300 231
42293309 271 213
42596839 227 185
51226934 235 190
65778114 263 208
56389162 175 149
66007126 177 151
77801769 186 157
72244283 160 138
95419504 177 151
98422135 195 163
119839220 189 159
-------
___
___
___________________ _______________ __________ __________________ __________________________
_ _ _ _ _ _ ______ _____ _____
_ _
29 _
28 IER~os E EE~4I DLSST8MA-Y tONtiMOR ttF~ 27 _ MmOroPCENTA4 DEMLAS VENTAS DE- ER A
jIE 4ERAOIO WRU ~ 7~
24 T~E~V 6JI1 ERGENhTA($F OFjIR Y- -i-4L-IAR -RQ AG E
LOEjTO
C7
a~
w0 1- 7- 74
-rS PGM)1
oj - - + - L 4
0shy
_____RMEG__s-
zNSD~i E-GEERmWf~ -I---Jrto~ of__________ss I________________
u~~~~
Li 17 C tH
Yerltf~~I
a-r- 15 u)__
_ _ _ _ _ _ __7_ _ _19016492 16 6 35 16 97 9 6 16 90 17 92 17 94 175 17 97 17 99 1 9 9 16 93 18 95 18 97 16 99 19
V N Ya
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
__iKplusmn
__~~_ X4____
HISTGCC tiir~ _ F-shy
R~riI1
_lt ja
a ~
~ _ I_
_S__
------ __________________
0 E ifj~P~ Y Camp _
_ I_
APENDICE I - C
TABLAS Y FIGURAS
RELACIONADAS AL ANALISIS DE CORRELACION
APPENDIX I - C
TABLES AND FIGURES
RELATING TO CORRELATION ANALYSIS
APPENDIX IC
LIST OF TAPLES
TABLE IC]i ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC PARAMETERS USED IN CORRELATION ANALYSIS
TABLE IC2 SELECTED SOCIO-ECONOM[C PARAMETERS USED FOR ESTIMATING POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN THE 1978-1988 PERIOD -TOTAL AND BY SECTOR
TABLE IC3 RANGE OF POTENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION LEVELS 1974-1988 BASED ON SELECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC PARAMETER SUBSTITUTION IN ESTIMATING EQUATIONS
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE IC I REGRESSION CORRELATION OF TOTAL ENERGY SALES AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
FIGURE IC2 REGRESSION CORRELATION OF ENERGY SALESCAPITA AND GDPCAPITA (1938 PRICE8-)
FIGURE 0C3 REGRESSION CoJtulEff1IOI1 OF INDUSTRIAL ENERGY SALES AND MANUFACTURING VALUE ADDE) I4ANUFACTURING AND
FIGURE C4 CONSTRCTiN VALTE ADD)REGRESS EON CORRELATION OF COM1MRCIAL GOVErjMENT
PUBLIC IGIrIqiG PU IP -NG ENERGY AND TOTAL SERVICE SECTOR COMMfERCIAL ENERGY AND COI[HtERCiAL VALUE ADDED GOVERU4IrEN PUBLIC IGHTTING PUMPING ENERGY AND SERVICE SECTOR LESS COMIMERCIAL VALUE ADDED
FIGURE IC5 REGRESSION CORRELATION OF RESIDENTIAL ENERGY SALES AND TOTAL POPULATION
FIGURE IC6 REGRESSION CORRELATION OF RESIDENTIAL ENERGY SALES AND URBAN POPULATION
FIGURE IC7 REGRESSION CORRELATION OF RESIDENTIAL ENERGY SALES AND NUMBER OF DWELLING UNITS
FIGURE IC8 ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS OF TOTAL ELECTRICAL ENERGY SOLD PER CAPITA
APPENDIX IC
T A B L A S
EN RELACION CON ANALISIS D CORRELACION
T A B L E
RELATING TO CORRELATION ANALYSIS
TABLE IC1 CONSUMODE ZNERGIA Y PARAMETROS SOCIO-ECONOMICOS
USADO EN ANALrSIS DE CORRELACION
ENERGY CON3UMPTION AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC PARAMETERS USED TN CORRELATION ANALYSIS
ENERCIA TOTAL VENDIDA ENERGIA TOTAL VENDCAPITA ENERGIA RESIDENCIAIARO TOTAL EPERGY SOLD VEND ENEROIA COM VENDIDATOTAL ENERGY SULDCAPITA RESIDENTIAL FNEPCYYEAR - Owh) 6 SOLD COMMENERGY SOLD
- (Kwh) I K (106 Kwh)
1960 798 57 2431961 908 6163 253 i21962 1091 73 277 1001963 1283 83 121964 12b1560 99 J6 1721965 1874 116 4411966 2181 207131 580 280L967 2503 147 712 3421968 3224 185 827 4021969 3724 208 953 4711970 4178 228 992 5271971 4515 239 10531972 6155383 275 1151 667 1973 5918(R) 294(R)5044(A) 1230(R) 730(R)250(A) 854(A) 412(A)1974 6963(R) 334(R) 1320(R)6420(A) 790(R)308(A) 1030(A) 650(A)
ALUMPUBL Y BOMBEO ALUMANO ENERCIA INDUSTVENIDA COMERCIAT Y COBIERNO PUB Y BOMBEO
DEL GOBIERNO GDP TOTALYEAR TNDUST FNER(Y SOLD COMMamp COVTPUBLTG amp PUMP GOVI PUBTG amp PUMP- (0Kwh) 6(106Kwh) (10 Kwh) (106) 19580
1960 169 178 1171961 2396216 208 1261962 2575273 240 1401963 2860331 297 169 31741964 433 359 1871965 3558538 430 2231966 3102665 527 2471967 4028856 618 276 43031968 1280 745 343 43491969 1474 867 396 46481970 1768 965 4381971 48011825 1128 5081972 50782073 1257 590 5289 1973 2175 1382(R) 652(R) 5527(R)
884(A) 472(A)1974 2680 5424(A)1543(R) 753(R) 5832 1290(A) 640(A)
AO CI)P POR CAPITA SECTOR SEReVALOR AADIDO COMERCIO-VAOR ARADIDO SERVICIO MENOS COnRCIuYEAR GDP PER CAPITA SERVSECTOR VALUE ADDED COMMERCE ALUE ADDED SERVLESS COMMVALE ADDED(1060) (10 ) (O06_)
lpoO 1698 1349 5361961 1772 8131428 570 858lt 1912 1552 636193 200 9161665 708 9571914 2253 1816 786 1030165 2410 1479 8571966 2427 11222057 8921967 2529 11652164 929i 968 2494 12352232 9631969 1269200 2307 9951)70 2620 13122400 1027 13731971 289 2506 10791972 1427270b 2573 1136 1437
1973 2743(R) 2719(R)26 1193(R) 1526(R)92(A) 2616(A) 1183(R) 1433(A)197 2799 2742 1280 1o62
R Valores revisados astimados par3 establecer tinea do tendencia normalizada para PI proposito de extrapolaciorR Revised values estimated to establish normalized trend line for extrapolation purposes A Valores actuales obtenidos dt registros pra priodo d EneroA - Actoal
- Octubre 1974 con estiaciones para Nov y Diciembrealus obtained from records for period January - October 1974 with estimates for November and December lSector de Servioio incluye Comereio o ierno Utilidad Finanza Vivienda y otros
Service Sector iocludes Comarce Goernment Utility Finance Hlousing and others
_____
TABLE IC 1 (CONuINJED)
NUNERO DE VIVIENDAS SECTOR SECUND VALOR ANADIDO POR UNIDADPOPLACION URBANA NUMBER OF DWELLINC UNITSSECOND SECTOR VALUEADDED URBAN POPULATION
ASO 1O6ZYEAR - _______ (1000) (100o)
Indust instr Total
1960 374 55 430 5471961 2225415 58 473 571 23061962 485 71 556 5951963 578 239481 658 629 24861964 o49 109 758 1965 727
652 2568124 851 6851966 763 166 929 2654 717 27431967 370 i5O 1020 750 2836
1468 912 145 107 788 2931 19b9 979 163 1142 824 3030 1970 1071 158 122v 865 3133 1971 1123 164 1287 907 3304 1979 1196 183 1379 946 3400 1973 1212 231 1443 983(R)
1974 1352 250 971(A)1602 1023(R)
1009(A)
Orign Sources
1) Constao e Energia ENALIF Est los Econiomicos y Estadisticos Energy Consunption ENALUF Ecortomics and Statistics Department
2) loblacion Oficina Ejecutiva d- EncuesLas V Censoa Population Executive Office of Surveys and Census
3) Estaliticas GDP Cuentas Nacionales de Nicaragua Banco CentralGDP itati3tis Natiotnal Accounts f Nicaragua Central Baik
4) Vivienda Estadisticas Anuales 1972 Banco Central Housing Annual Stati-tics 1972 Cetral Bank
Nota Cordobas declarsdos a precios de 1958 Note Cordobas stated in terms of 1958 pries
TABLE IC2
SELECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC PARAMETERS USED FOR ESTIMATING POTENTIAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN THE 1978-1988 PERIOD
YEAR
GDP-MOST PROBABLE TOTAL PER (10619580) CAPITA
_ _ __ (9580) jA (B)
1974 5832 2799
1978 1983 1988
7538 9852
12876
3147 3481 3877
(TOTAL AND BY SECTOR)
SECTOR VALUE ADDED - BASED ON NUMBER GDP - MOST PROBABLE (106 19580) POPULATION OF DWELLING
INDUSTRIAL TCTAL COMERCE SERVICE TOTAL URBAN UNITS (SECONDARY)
(C) SERVICE
(D) ONLY (E)
LESS COMMERCE (F)
(1000) (G)
(1000) (H)
(1000) (I)
1602 2742 1280 1462 2084 1009 3470
2261 3415 1562 1853 2395 1212 4129 3153 4335 1953 2382 2830 1528 4965 4288 5498 2444 3054 3321 1890 5930
(A) Correlated with Total Energy Sold (B) Correlated with Total Energy Sold Per Capita (C) Correlated with Total Industrial Energy Sold (D) Correlated with Total Commercial Government Public Lighting and Pumping Energy Sold (E) Correlated with Total Commercial Energy Sold Commerce VA Projected at 56 of Other Service VA (F) Correlated with Total Government Public Lighting and Pumping Energy Sold (G) Correlated with Total Residential Energy Sold (H) Correlated -oith Total Residential Energy Sold and Residential Plus Commercial Energy Sold (I) Correlated with Total Residential Energy Sold
Inclides Utility amp Other Service Sectors Includes commerce government finance housing and other sectors
Value added
TABLE IC3
ALCANCE POTENCIAL )ENIVELES I)ECONSUMO DE ENERGIA 1974-1988
BASADO EN SUSTITUCION EN ECUACIONhES ESTIMADAS DE PARAMETRO SELECCIONDL)U SOCIO-ECONOMICO
RANGE OF POTENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION LEVELS 1974-1988
BASED ON SELECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC PARAMETER SUBSTITUTION IN ESTIMATINC EQUATIONS
PARAMETROS PARAMETERS
Y ECUAGIONES ESTIMADAS AND ESTIMATING EQUATIONS
CATEGORIA CATEGORY
ltNIAU UNIT 1974
ARO -1978
YEAR 1983 1988
A) Energla Total Vendida vs DPTotat-Nivel 1974 Tota9lEnergy Sold vamp Total DP1974 Level
Energia Total 10
6Kwh 642
Ecu-lones IstiTmdas - Estimatiig Equations
1 227110-15x2 503
(it) 631 1199 2344 581
2 v 0804310-15 2 44
2 (A) 60Y 1141 2192 4215
3) Energla Total JendiclL Pot Capita vs CDP Total Por Capita - Nivel 1174
Total Energy Sold Per Capta vs Total GDP Per Capita - 1974 Level
EnergiaCapia Kwh
Capita (R)334 (A)308
Ecuaclones Estimada - Estimating Equations
I y = 3 455 (t00 15 7)x (R) 279 481 813 1513
2 y
3 y
-
-
5 70 8 (I0 0 13 8 )x (A)
0408610-9x3 4 2
6 (R)
270
263
438
394
694
556
1198
804
4 y - 089i7108x3 034
(A) 256 365 496 688
5 y - 07379102 ( 1 00 37 9 )x 408 504 618 787
6 y - 007to4x 1472
(198$) 580 689 799 937
7 log y = 1 28f6logx-086 (1960$) 300 347 395 454
C) Energla tdustrlal Vendlta vs Sector Industrial Valor Afladido - Nivel 1974 Industrial Energy Sold vs Industrial Sector Value Added - 1974 Level
Industrial Energy 10
6Kwh 2680
Ecuacionea Estnimada - Estimatii g Equations
1 y 0 123510 11c221 (A) 272 582 1213 2393
2 y 01070 109 + 2215x (A) 248 394 591 843
3 y 0-51710shy1 2
x 2
2 5 8 (A) 264 500 1110 2467
D) Energia Vendiea Comercial oblerno Ala Publ y Bombeo vs Sector Serv Valor tAadido-Nvel74 Cormercial Govt Pub ftg Pumping Energy Sold vs SevV Sector Valie Added-1974 Level
Com Gobierno Luz y Bombeo
Energia 106Kwh
1543(R) 1290(k)
Ecuaclones Estimadts - EstiuaLiog Equalions
1 y - 0983ll-2 1
x3 0
H93 (R) 1410 279 583 1214
2 y - 01285109 + 0954x (R) 1330 197 285 396
E) Energla romercial Vendida vs Valor Comercial Afladido - Nivel 1974
Commercial Energy Sold vs Comerce Value Added - 1974 Level
Commercia I-na-rby0
6Kwh
790 (R) 650 (A)
Ecuacionea Estlr-P- - Estimating Equations
I y - P174610shy20
x 3 15 38
(R) 93 173 349 708
2 - 06142 -- 01077x (i) 77 108 150 203
TABLE IC3 (CONTTNUEI)
PARAMETROS ECUACIONES E-TIMAI)AS CATEGORIA UNIDAD ANO - YEAR PAMETERS AND ESTIMATTNG EQUATIONS CATEGORY UNIT 1974 1978 1983 1988
F) Energia Vendida Gobierno AlumPubl y Gobierno y Luz y 75-3(R)6Bombeo vs Serv Menos Sector Comercio Energia Bomb 10 Kwh 640(A)
Valor Aadido - Nivel 1974 GovtLtgampPumping Gov Public Lighting and Pumping Energy Energy Sold vs Service I-essCommerce Sector Added Value - 1974 Level
Ecuaciones Esradas - Estimating Equatiins
I v = 0105610-18 x 2916 (R) 56 112 232 480
2 y = 06208168 + 0809 x (R) 5b 88 131 185
G) Energia Residencial Vendida vs Energia Reasidenrial 106Kwh 1320(R)
Poblacion Total- Nivel 1974 Residential Energy 1030(A) Residential Energy Sold vs Total Population - 1974 Level
Ecuacloics Estimradus - Estimating Equations
L y - 02427109 + 18288 x (R) 1380 195 275 365
2 y - 0395710-23x5 004
(R) 1650 331 762 1697
11) Energia Residencial Vendida vs Energia Residencial 106Kwh 1i20(R)
Poblacion Urbana - Nivel 1974 Residential Energy 1030(A) Ecuaciones Estimadad - Estimating Equations 1 v 01176109 + 24694 x (R) 1320 182 260 349
2 9952 y 01540109 x (R) 1480 256 512 967
6I) Energia Residencial Vendida vs Residencial 1O Kwh 1320(R) Numero de Unidades de Viviendas-Nivel 1974 Energia 1030(A)
Residential Energy Sold vs Residential Energy Number of Dwelling Units - 1974 Level
Ecuaclones Estimadas - Estimating Equations
1 y - 0179109 + 87551 x (A) 24 O 182 265 340
2 y = 0592810-15 x 4222 1 tot 662 1402(A) 1460
(R) - Ecuacion basada on datos revisados de 1973 y 1974 (A) = Ecuacion basada en datos actuales de 1973 y 1974
(R) - Equation based on Revised 1973 and 1974 data (A) = Equation Based on actual 1971 and 1974 data
APPENDIK EC
F f G U R A S
EN RELACION CON ANALISIS DE GORRELACION
F I G U R E S
RELATING TO CORRELATION ANALYSIS
FIG IC- I
rHit 1
A l
V 1vF
I 6 4(
ANIt 0
Il
it
T l I
FE E
Wi
77
-
_f
16-
FT
I
I I II I l i i
1 1 ilk
II i lt
1
o
07
i 77
i 1
i
l
1
IO
I Ii
RE S
o iiiZI- - I5 ( i
I
t 15 9 I
0
7-77 7
F
-
- TAV-
--
--
----
e et I I I7i a 44Z
- -
0 I I _I_tf___ I 126 xJ
II t till
400 500 800 1000 1500 2000 3000 4000 5000
PRODUICTO INTERNO BRUTO - MILLONES DE CORDOBAS DE 1958 Gross Domestic Product - Millions of 1958 Cordobas
F l6 IC -z
700
600
B ENERGIA VENDIDA PER CAPITA VS
PRODUCTO INTERNO ERUTO PER
500 CAPITA (PRECIOS DE 1958)
400
300
B ENERGY SOLD PER CAPITA VS
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA ( 1958 PRICES) 7-3shy
7 4
000
amp200a
oBest a-Y
-20
-0
MEJOR AJUSTE DE DATOSACTUALES
Fit - Actual Data = 5 708 (100138)
C =086d105 ld =03046x
0
lt
lt
too
90
80FBest
to 60
0 --shy
0
MEJOR AJUSTE DE DATOS Fit - Revsed Data
Yr= 3455 (160157) Cr= 097
Ed 0 9577x10 4
REVISADOS
0 50
C gtACTUAL = 0
bull 30 REVISADO Revised
73-74 = 0
20
I0 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000
PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO PER CAPITA (CORDOBAS DE 1958)-Gross Domestic Product PerCapita (1958 Cordobas)
FIG I C3
i li t ilqfK 0 _NE tA IT A bullY
iM -ARE ADb k - A3R u C Tsect X LCOS444)~ G 0 KfEDTRAL-shy A R R H-E
Io300
(1)
- rI~i -A t~ Lb)GFG L vk - SIl S t 4NE R~ IIND V E _
300 - L shy 50-
M J RJUS iNOil
h-690 t IM U-
IOld AJUSTE~kFO ATS-- -f a 20 t
tc 70 MAN F-ACTURING VALUE AD[ i N
60 1_ [_ )US
$ I IL A I6 T _-1-f4LE0
Hti40i- 1 IcD t 2 iEd 020004I ALL00WE00 f100 200 -t- 4-
-J 30
VALOR AGREGADO (MILLONES DE CORDOBAS DE 1958)
Value Added (Millions of 1958 Cordobas)
FIG IC 4
1V121IV l ~ gthh~lfl iF iWKffiiT ~KF7f1 -
7 i7
I-I-i E G A C- I - I _
CMER IF R 171 Ir50 RA Oli~~ ih gt1E t i
- DD T4-
zW F I R 001
- V LO RE A D-C-c Dmu O
73shy
400-S-4-A D 2 7 X__ 7e 1 h lo 7 005 10 1 0 1080--Y
I-A-I F ( r
7 _ _ _ F
VAL7RAREAO -LO _OR D U958
20- - 4vUE-AP e- --M i s o
31AiMirwi[AL +6041 -40 E D DiN( C
VALOR AREADO DE SETOREVAIO ( LOESDECRDA DE198 Vau Ade Service Ser ( ilinf158 Cro
FIGI C 5
G ENERGIA RESIDENCIAL VENDIDA VS
POBLACION TOTAL
2e5
G RESIDENTIAL ENERGY SOL D vs
TOTAL POPULATION
F
0
73o7 x
73
x
74
100 0
I0
MEJOR AJUSTE REVISADO- Best Fit - Revised0 Yr= -02427 10 9+1 8 2 8 8 x
Cr= 099 2 11514d2 05988 10
0
073
500
3 9 E ACTUAL
REVISADORevised 73-74
C0 =9
25 x
0 I 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
POBLACION TOTAL ( EN MILES) - Total Population (1000)
FIG IC6
H ENERGIA RESIDENCIAL VENDIDA VS
POBLACION URBANA
1
H RESIDENTIAL ENERGY SOLD VS
URBAN POPULATION
0 U)
73
a
w
(I
UJ
00 0
_ MEJOR AJUSTE DE DATOS REVISADOSBest Fit - Revised Data 0 73
075 Cr =
2Ed =
0~1176 -I0 9 + 24694 X 0 99
1503475 I0
zuo gt 50 J
z w0 u)J
0 0Revised
0 ACTUAL REVISADO
=0 73-74=
lt25 0
z
0 II J 500 600 700 800 900 1000
POBLAClON URBANA (EN MILES) -Urban Population (1000)
FIG I C -7
ENERGIA RESIDENCIAL VENDIDA Vs
NUMERO DE VIVIENDAS
RESIDENTIAL ENERGY SOLD - VS
NUMBER OF DWELLING UNITS
0125
o 0 V
(I(D
_ 100 0
z
- 0
MEJOR AJUSTE ACTUAL --Best Fit Actual (60-72) E
Y = - 017967109 +87551 X p75
0 C = 098 2d 046671010
v=
pound0
2 50 w
-j 0
25 (00 (
zW
0 I I I I I I 1 I 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 2)0 300 310 320 330 340
NUMERO DE VIVIENDAS (EN MILES) Number of Dwelling Units (1000)
__
20000 o 0 - shy - - -----shy8000
-- I - iI I 7000 1 t - - r6000 _ SISTEMA INTERCONECTADO NACIONAL I- - shy5000__ ENERGIA ELECTRICA TOTAL VENDIDA PER Ct PITA shy3000 _ _A
40 _ - - I 1 __ _ -IT - - r t J - - -IT ICLP 3000 AL+ ~ -- EE - SOLD P~ER CA A I~ I -t- bull - ]
I 1-shy bull -1 L- 1-1 tt- HIS - ORIC -I 41 I o o000 - PRO ECTA -bull-975-4 96amp_bull ------------------------- -6----------------- ----I--------l --shycak00 --- _-------_
5_ i shy i shy111i i5 00-~__ -- 9 47 g
j I shy
_ 300 shy
0 _1
I i I
100 I i - - -- 1 97- 98- 98
I IO II TALA~ SEC IONB 4 S 0-
1978 2983 9680 SI bulli PROYIECCION BASADAARA I [CC lshy10PROYIECCION PL BAJA BASADA EN EN EL PROMEID LAS CECUACONES DEEESTISTIACOLA tCUACON DIEESTACION 7 TABLA d TABLA IC3 SECC ION B 460
H igh Pc on IC-S SECCO ~ 3~Y 754 1 t65
Iscfij n Based g l f E t ol EEvr n t Tabl I C 3 Sc l2on 0 I 6 7 4 4 5 -- A9oge PraiieflonBo dev av6g of Estia oIn- E q 9 t1ion 305--T a ti s -C-3- ISa ill 134Lw - - 443 5e7 796
Piojcllon E on li 1 n E uol on7 aBlt I C i Secilon 8 1 347 395 454
2I --- 7E shy
1960 29 162 2963 1964 1965 1966 196 2968 1969 2970 1971 1972 2973 2974 2975 2976 2977 1978 2979 2980 2981 2982 1983 2984 985 2986 2987 2988 2989 190 A NOS - Years
CAPITULO II
FACILIDADES EXISTENTES
Y
EL DESARROLLO A CORTO PLAZO
DEL
SISTEMA INTERCONECTADO
CHAPTER II
EXISTING FACILITIES
AND
SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT
OF
THE INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
CHAPTER II
EXISTING FACILITIES AND SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT
OF THE INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
CONTENTS PAGE
20 INTRODUCTION II-I 21 GROWTH OF INTERCONNECTED POWER SYSTEM II-I 211 HISTORICAL GROWTH AND IMPACT OF EARTHQUAKE II-I 212 RECOVERY AND SHORT RANGE DEVELOPMENT 11-2 213 INTERCONNECTIONS 11-5
22 GENERATION SUPPLY SOURCES 11-5 221 PRINCIPAL FACILITIES 11-5 222 COMPOSITION OF GENERATING RESOURCES 11-6 223 AGGREGATE COST OF GENERATION AND RELATED TRANSMISSION 11-6 224 ENERGY SOURCES 11-6 225 FUEL OIL STORAGE AND DELIVERY FACILITIES 11-7 226 FUEL COSTS 11-7 227 THERMAL PLANT SITING STUDY 11-7 228 GENERATION RESERVES AND RELIABILITY EVALUATION 11-9 229 ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS 11-9
23 TRANSMISSION II-i0 231 VOLTAGE LEVELS II-10 232 TRANSMISSION SYSTEM ADDITIONS II-I0 233 TRANSMISSION SYSTEM COSTS II-i0 234 RIGHT OF WAY AND LAND 11-13 235 TRANSMISSION SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT CRITERIA IT-13 236 TRANSMISSION SYSTEM PLANNING GUIDELINES AND PRACTICES 11-13
APPENDIX IIA TABLES AND FIGURE FOR EXISTING FACILITIES AND
SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
APPENDIX IIB PROPOSED TRANSMISSION SYSTEM RELIABILITY CRITERIA
APPENDIX IIC PROPOSED TRANSMISSION SYSTEM PLANNING GUIDELINES AND PRACTICES
CHAPTER IT
EXISTING FACILITIES AND SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
TABLE II1
TABLE 112
TABLE 113
TABLE 114
TABLE II4
LIST OF TABLES
GENERATION RESOURCE PROGRAM
RELATIVE SITE EVALUATION
RELATIVE RANKING OF THERMAL PLANT SITES
138 AND 230 KV SYSTEM ADDITIONS
SIIEET I OF 2
138 AND 230 KV SYSTEM ADDITIONS SlIEET 2 OF 2
PAGE
11-3
11-8
IT-9
II-ll
11-12
CHAPTER II
EXISTING FACILITIES AND SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE II1 AREAS WITH ELECTRIC SERVICE
FIGURE 112 PLANNED GENERATION AND TRANSMISSION 1975-1977
FIGURE 113 GENERATING CAPACITY AND PEAK DEMAND - ENALUF PROJECTION
FIGURE 114 GENERATION FACILITIES - PERCENT OF IOTAL SYSTEM 1962-1977
FIGURE II5 GENERATING PLANTS AND RELATED TRANSMISSION COMPARISON OF CAPITAL COST PER KILOUATT
FIGURE 116 ENERGY SOURCES
FIGURE I17 FUEL OIL PIPELINE STORAGE AND DELIVERY
FIGURE 118 FUEL PRICE TRENDS
FIGURE 119 AVAILABLE THERMAL PLANT SITE LOCATIONS
CHAPTER II
EXISTING FACILITIES AND SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTERCONNECTED SYSTEM
20 INTRODUCTION
As an autonomous entity of the state Empresa Nacional de Luz y Fuerza (ENALUF) is the principal supplier of electric euergy in Nicaragua with over 98 percent of the installed generation resources in the nation The total effective operating capacity of generation resources owned and operated by ENALUF das 183 MW as of December 31 1974 ENALUFs major area of influence is that served by the Sistema Interconectado Nacional (SIN) which provides transmission service at 138 kV 69 kV and 249 kV to ENIALJFs distribution facilities as well as delivering bulk power to five independent cooperatives and other wholesale customers
The major load centers within the country are located in the Central and Pacific regions and are the capital city of Managua the Chinandega-Leon area and the Masaya-Granada area The total electrical demand of these three areas represented 75 percent of ENALUFs 1974 non-coincident peak demand of 170 MW
ENALLF is also responsible for isolated service to the own of Puerto Cabezas and Bluefielr3 located on the Caribbean Coast Figure II1 illustrates the extent of the present ENALUF service area anld the areas served by the cooperatives Figure 112 shows the existing and proposed bulk power electrical facilities through 1977 This includes all transshymission facilities operating at 138 kV and above
21 GROWTH OF INTERCONNECTED POWER SYSTEM
211 HISTORICAL GROWTH AND IMPACT OF EAREIhQUAKE
Prior to the earthquake of December 23 1972 the ENALUF system demand was growing at an average annual compound growth rate of 10 percent (1968-1971) A L972 coincident peak demand of 130 MW was estimated at that time
The earthquake thaL devastated Managua the major load center of the country was of Richter magnitude 62 with -n intensity of 90 on a modishyfied Mercalli scale The impact on the electrical power supply was the loss of approximately 20000 customers representing 26 percent of the total customers served by ENALUF
Physical damage to electrical facilities was limited to the Managua area Considerable danage was sustained at the Managua steam station which is located in the city on the edge of Lago de Managua The total restorashytion of this plant was delayed until April 1973 due to delays in obtaining replacement parts The distribution system within the central portion of
HONDURASZS
PTOCASEZAS
REFERENCIAS Ref eren es
HRAREAS DE ENALUFENALUF Areas
AREAS DE COOPERATIVAS fo tCooperatives AreasNOTA ESTE DIBUJO HA SIDO PREPARADO
rt
jdeg
drawing AGCONSULTORA
NOTE SIMILAR PREPARADO P R ESIN CONSULTORA SAThis drawing has been prepared
from data contained an a similar
prepared by ESIN SA
N MAN AUA
AELECTRICO
lAREAS SA
(
RFA A oAREAS
EMPRESA NACIONAL DE LUZ Y FUERZ A
~PtANGENERAL DE DESARXOLLONATIONAL POWE R S1WJY 1975-19S0
CON SERVICIOS EETIO WITH ELECTRIC SERVICE
1 - I o~a~oINTERNATI O NAL OENG1NEERING COA _AIC
CO A1C I4- 0 Maro 20T19
220 IONTCCIERY STREETSAN FGAANCISCACALIFORNIA 9Y10U
C
JO 0 t F deg 0 VASGOV
CORINT LI
T tquI-- 9 _T5l
O do A
-- CE A-v gM Td~ETL O-JI cent i i - ) MATA~LPA
) A ( -
O EI Vieo o m Lo LAMO p E
+0~LEON
Logoogoo
Aon -I TIANC Vud CONS TRurIO JUAN
year ~~~ ContrctAn TyiaTA COfT
FUENTELo DE LAIFCATONDEENLGERENCuA
SOURE ENLUF EPARSUNLANING
LAO Nlu EL CA PA C IDA SUDETACION
Capacitysubation
Name MVA
CENTROAMEIICA 2x3I5
GRALSOMOZA 2 a31S
b GARCIA
MANAGUA 1a4040IS
SEBACO 5
TIPITAPA 15
MALAYA 40
RIVAl 5
IOACO S
STA RITA 5
oCabll ACOYAPA
CHINAN SA
L1011 40718 (11)
MALPAIILLO S
ESTELI 761 Y 7 YALASINA 75
SUR as (F)
8AILE t2a 7 (F)I is
II SOMOZA 1 2a6(f)
F - FUTURe -Future
A Y A R
C A RIBE
Ramo
RomFUTURE
Bluefleld a
P
n Juan Norte
FIG ]1 2
E V T A E D I NOMBREL P A DET T I P O CAPACIDADA
01 VOLTAJ LA PLANTA EFECTIVA Voltoge Pla t I p Ef active
OD REELACION
Rat o Name CapacityKVHKVA _ W
14065105 CENTROt CA HIO RO 48000
138105 GRAL501 H 1R0 46000 GARCIA
130735144 MANAGUA TERMICA 75000
140255 MANAGUA DIESEL 15000
12iIS CHINNEKGA GAS 14000
13070 RIVAl DIESEL 2 050
1D249 PTOSSZA(F ) TERMICA 100 000
1014
ISt49
u12491
12070
150705101 U
I 1amp44
SO249 30241110
1070
Ia151
5011EI ve111
2015B
LEYENDA
LEGEND INITALACIONES E XOITES EXISTING INSTALLATIONS
- LINEA DE1 KV - 138KV LIDe
-W- LINIA 0E 250KV - t50 KV LIne
A SUSETACION - Sebstetia
PLANTA -Plant
INSTALACIONES FUTURAS
INSTALLATIONS
-- LINIA DE 13 KV - 130 KV LiNe
-seeR-b LINEA DE 230KV -230KV Lae
SUEBTACION - Sabtatlae
PLANTA - Pliet
I 3T5105 DE LAS PRESAS INVESTIGADAS DAUSITES INVESTIGATED
EMPRESA NACIONAL DE LUZ Y FUERZA MANAGUA DN NICARAGUA
PAN GERAL DEDESARROLLO-NATONAL POWER STUDY 19781988
GENERACION Y TRANSMISION PLANEADA
PLANNED GENERATION AND TRANSMISSION
1975-1977
INTERNATIONAL ENGINEERING COMPANYINC
IEC-0FLCHA MAR 31 1975
220 MONTGOMERY SrREET SAN FRANCISLO CALIFORNIA 14104
Managua was removed as part of the clean-up of the city
Two 50 MW hydroelectric power plants lcated 80 kilometers and 100 kiloshymeters north of Managua were separated electrically from Managua and did not sustain damage At Chinandega about 100 kilometers to the northwest the remaining major generation source a 15 MW gas turbinealso successfully separated from the system and remained on line sershyving the local load of Chinandega and the load on the remaining line connected to the Chinandega bus
212 LUCOVERY AND SHORT RANGE DEVELOPMENT
Intensive plaaning for the development of power system facilities is reshyflected in the current number of studies being performed These include land ust studies for the reconstruction of ianagua a program for electrishyfication 4f the ruraL areas of the count-ry r)il exploration in Lhe Pacific and AtlanLic Coastal region- a drilling program for the devluipment of geothermal resoitrces prefeasibility anatyis of an intercGnn14ction of theNi aaua and Costa Rica electric power systeii and prefeasibi lity analyshysis ot the development of the Rio San Juan for purposes of navigation and electric power supply
Generation plans for 1975 include the installation of two 50 MW thermal units at the Puerto Somoza Plant which are to be commercially operableby 1976-1977 This will provide 80 MW of reserve capacity or an installed margin of 32 percent in 1977 In addition a sLngle circuit transmission line constructed for 230 kV but initially operated at 138 kV will intershyconnect the ENALUF system with the Honduras power system Empresa Nacional de Energia ELectrica (ENEE) in 1976 These plans are shown in Figure 113 and summarized in Table III
Present transmission plans from 1975 to 1977 include the construction of 169 kilometers of 230 kV and 101 kilometers of L38 kV transmission line One new substation will be constructed in the Pacific region This will be the Los Brasiles Substation rated at 150 MVA 230-138-138 kV In addition two existing substations located at Leon and Managua will be expanded during this period to allow for transmission line terminations and additional transformer capacity
Former transmission plans for 1976 included the construction of the Los Brasiles-Sur-Tipitapa 138 kV transmission line and Sur Substation a mashyjor 138-138 kV substation with provisions [or future 230 kV facilities Tlhese projects were deferred in an effort to reduce capital expendituresThe postponement of these facilities resulted in the deferral in capitalexpenditures of approximately US$23 million Thie timing of these facishylities has not beenL established as of the date of this report
The rural electrification program will also have its effect in the 1975-77 period Two new substations wiLl provide power supply to the previously electrically isolated towns of Esieli and Yalaguina Ninetykillmeters of new 138 kV transmission line will connect Esteli and Yalaguina substatiLu1 to the ENALUF system at Subaco Substation
11-2
E
z 500 -Z
(L
400 400
lt o ltO lt ENALUF~G
ENALUF - CAPACIDAD TOTAL INSTALADA ENALUF- Total InstaIed CapacitySMCZGACI
tLGACAN
- SOMOZA GARCIA Ne i 25 MW|
S M Z 2 25MW_j
200
CAPACIDAD DE GENERACION Y DEMANDA MAXIMA GENERATING CAPACITY AND PEAK DEMAND
800
700
ZE
FUENTE PLANIFICACION600 DEL SISTEMA DE GENERACION DEL SIN DE DICIEMBRE 1974
Source December 1974 SIN Genesation Resource Program
COMPRAS A ENEE 40 MWV Purchase FromENEE4OMWI
COMPRAS A ENEE 40 MW Purchase From ENEE 40 MW
GEOTERMICA N3 45 MW r 1 GeothermEl NTC3 45MW
GEOTERMICA N2 2 45 MWr
TECAACDATOA Geothermal N 2 2
GEOTERMICA N2 1 45 MW Geothermal N2 1 45 MW
45 MW f---- MWTAA
I - - -
-- --- L--- -PTO SOMOZA 25MWN2-2 50 MWI 2~ W N- D MA D MAI ADE E A
PTO SOMOZA Nei 50MW ENLFPakDmn
j -0 mCAPACIDAD INSTALADA TOTAL MENDS EL RIESGO
Total Installed Capacity Less Largest Risk MAYOR
1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
ANOS Years
w
44
In
C7
0
Inn In
N~
~I-
N
-shy
0 IN
W
C4
0 0In444
IA
0
0-In
0
00
I0
a
IN4
Nn
44
0 0
N
C-
4
m0
0
-0
N
4l 0
00
0
C-
NN
In
0I
0 44
Jr 4
OfC
0
In
Z4
f 00
r-
00
HO
44
0
In In
oo tor
00
In 1
144
44
A
N
a
4-[44-
C
4) 1-
u1 $4
1
0 0
00 00
0 0
1 O
-In0
4
In In4 44
0
40 0
w4 0
m44
I to
M
M
4 4
0 4
44 I
44 Z
L
A
I4
444444
4-004 0 It-
44444
44 m
4v
In- 44
0Ho44
NIn )P
4 0
44 In
0t 4
40
t 04
-4
F 4
4~
44
44
0N
Notes to Table III
i Assumed capacity factors for unit additions
Base Load - 80 Intermediate - 40 Peaking - 15
2 Firm Hydro Capacity based on dry year hydro conditions Available energy from hydro resources based on average year hydro conditiois
3 Resources as of December 31 1974
MW GWH
Hydro 94 395
Thermal 89 545
TOTAL 183 940
4 The probability index represents the expectation that a specified resource program will serve forecast loads and allow for plannedgeneration niaintenance and ranidom forced outages for each day of the year without requiring inadvertant delivery of additional capacity by interconnections with other utilities In generalsufficient generating capacity is instalLed in the ENALUF system to insure that the expected uumler of days of generating capacity shortages will be limited to 10 days per year
Legend for Table II1
T - Thermal G - Geothermal P - Purchase
11-4
213 INTERCONNECTIONS
Firm transmissioi interconnection capability is presently planned at oneLocation A new sing te-ircuit 230 kV transmission line will interconnectNicaragua (ENALUI) and lHlonduras (ENW) between Leon and Pavana substationsin 1975 It wil l)c peraLed at 133 kV rather than at 230 kV due to thelight initial loadixng No tirm pLans presentily exist fQr operating thisline at 230 kV although the most likely date would be ini the early 1 980scoincident with the completion of the EL Cajon Hlydroelectric Plant of the
ENEI system
No transmission facilities presently interconnect Nicaragua and theCosta Rican power system Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad (ICE)However interconnection studies with Costa Rica are planned for theimaediate future Proposals for prefeasibility studies are presentlybeing reviewed The earliest possible date for the interconnectionof the ENALUF and [CE systems for purposes of fuel economy and poolingof generation reserves is 1978 under the present conditions
The timing of a second point of interconnection with the ICE systemwould most likely be coincident with the development of the Rio SanJuan A consultant has been chosen to conduct a prefeasibility studyof the multi-purpose navigation and hydroelectric potential of this riverConsidering the current status interconnection of the two systems atthis point is not likely until the late 1980s or early 1990s
22 GENERAT1ON SUPPLY SOURCES
221 PRINCIPAL FACILITIES
lie effective operating capacity of the ENALUF system was 183 MW onJanuary 11975 A distinction is mtade between the nameplate rating ofgenerating units and their effective operating capacity to allow forstation service requirements and any long term limitations of unit outshyput A tabulation of the generator ratings and effective operatingcapacity of the generating resources owned and operated by ENALUF is contained in Appendix 11A
The major system generating capacity consists twouf hydroelectricplants the Centroame ric Plant and the Somoza Giarcia Plant locatedapproximately 80 kilumeters and 100 kilometers respectively fromManagua Each hydroelectric plant has two 25 MW units with an e I ec-Live operating capnoity of 48 MW at Centroame cica and 4 MW at SotozaGarcia A [5 AW gaA turbine g e rator is located in Chinanduga Athenal electric power pant with an et[fective operatin capacity71 MW is located in Managua Tlhe units in this
of plant consists of one
45 MW and two 15 MW steam turbine generators
Seven diesel units located at Managua and Rivas are also available tothe system These units have a total e[fecLive operating capacity of355 MW lev spp Ly les than 2 percent of the LotaL energy amnd serve primarily as a source of emergency power
11-5
222 COMPOSITION OF GENERATING RESOURCES
ENAiULPs reliance on oil-fired thermal capacity historically has been high and is expected to increase through 1980 if geothermal resources or interconnections with Costa Rica fail to materialize Hydroshyelectric sources are presently limited to two 50 MW plants and future hydro capacity cannot be developed prior to 198L or 1982 The addishytion of the 100 MW Puerto Somoza Plant in 1976-77 will increase the total installed generating capacity of the ENALUF system to 295 MW of which 60 percent will be thermal and 34 percent will be hydro the remainder ill consist of a small amount of gas turbine anld dieshysel capacity Figure 114 illustrates the historical and projected mix of thermal and hydro generation of the ENALUF system from 1962 through 1977
223 AGGREGATE COST OF GENERATION AND IELATED TRANSMISSION
ENALUF is experiencing the effects of the current worldwide inflationshyary spiral in costs for major electrical equipment The capital cosLs original cost or book value of thermal and hydroelectric generating capacity excluding related transmission installed since 1964 averaged $124 and $390 per kilowatt respectively The capital cost of the two 50 MW units at Puerto Somoza has risen from a 1971 forecast value of $250 per kilowatt to a present estimate or over $350 per kilowatt an escalation rate of 133 percent A comparison of capital costs per kilowatt for representative individual plant additions is shown in Figure 115
224 ENERGY SOURCES
Nicaragua has no proven coal or oil reserves Exploration for oil has been unsuccessful although a number of US oil companies including Standard Oil of New Jersey (Exxon) Union Mobil Shell and Standard of California are now actively exploring on both the Pacific and Caribbean coasts The requirements by ENALUI for oil-fired thermal units are presently sup-plied by an Exxon refinery which uses imiported crude oil The dependence of Nicaragua on imported oil will prove critical to ENALUFs operation especially with their increaSing deshypendence on petroletim fuels Figure 116 iLlustrates the increasing dependence of ENAUI on oil-fired thermal sources With the insLtalla tion of the 2-50 M1W uerto Soaioza units in 1976-77 the percent of total energy generated by themal sources will increase from the preshysent 56 percent to 66 percent in 1977
Geothermal and hydroelectric resources are large potentials which will serve to reduce fuel oil consumption after 1977 A survey of geoshythermal potential was made in 1969-1971 and mapped 10 geothermal areas Two sites Nomotombo and San Jacinto were selected as promising prosshypects for geothermal exploration A UNDP supported project carried out a more detailed exploration of the two areas in 1972-1973 lhat
11-6
0
z
III 4shy
80
FIGURA U14 Figure 7 4
FACILIDADES DE GENERACIONGENERATION FACILITIES
PORCENTAJE DEL SISTEMA TOTAL PERCENT OF TOTAL SYSTEM
1962- 1977
ma wd a 7 0
60 I
VAOR
0 50
aE 440 40
4 4- 3 0Hydra
30
W~ -0
2 0
W~lWO) 1 010_DIESEL Y TURBNA DE GA
0- 0 62 64 66 68 70
A NOS Y EARS
72 74 76
Diesel and gas turbine
78
FUENTE DIVISION DE ESTUDIOS ECONOMICOS Y ESTADISTICAS Source DE ENALUF
DESARROLLO DEL SISTEMA DE GENERACION DEL SIN PERIODO 1977 -1986 1 NOV 1973
FIGURA H - 5 Figure R 5
PLANTAS DE GENERACION Y SU TRANSMISION CORRESPONDIENTI COMPARACION DE LOS COSTOS DE INVERSION POR KILOVATIO
GENERATING PLANTS AND RELATED TRANSMISSION COMPARISON OF CAPITAL COST PER KILOWATT
cf) w 3
Iol
o 2 500
F-)0O
zo0~
ow 0
w TRANSMISION C) 0CORRESPONDIENTE
o - Related Transmission
i to Ow Ow COREPODINT
i200
0 000
- wWD _ D Z (0o (Me lt
C) CU) -J W w_jo w )100 o __ to o0)-- ( 00
0aw- w
I-0
- 0 1 __- _- _shy
1965 1967 1971 1972 1976
SSE INCLUYE INGENIERIA ADMINISTRACION E INTERES DURANTE CONSTRUCCION Includes EngineeringAdmi nist1ration And Interest During Construction
FUENTE DIVISION DE ESTUDIOS ECONOMICOS Y ESTADISTICAS DE ENALUF GERENCIA DE PLANIFICACION ENALUF
SOURCE DIVISION OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICAL STUDIES OF ENALUl ENALUF PLANNING DEPARTMENT
FIGURA B 6
Figure 11 6
FUENTE DE ENERGIA ENERGY SOURCES
1969 -1977
LEYENDA Legend
GAS Y DIESEL Gas and Diesel
1000 S tea m
U HIDRO 900 Hydra
LOS NUMEROS INDICAN EL PORCENTAJE ir DEL TOTAL0 800- Numbers Indicate Percent of Total
GENERACION DE ENERGIA TOTAL-- CJm Total Energy Generated 2
x- 7 0 0 gt-o B
0j
w 2 600gt 7-1shy
w 02-i z 500 0 0J 2i
--- 7
5 x - 3OO 00 300
4044
69270070 74 4 751 34
- 5 N94258 56 100
0 L9
69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 AROS Years
FUENTE DIVISION DE ESTUDIOS ECONOMICOS Y ESTADISTICAS Source DE ENALUF
DESARROLLO DEL SISTEMA DE GENERACION DEL SIN PERIODO 1977 -1986 NOV 19735
study indicate that both are promising prospects and that the Momoshytombo location contain a large steam field The UNDP project recomshymended the start of exploration drilling in the Momotombo field under a project which would complete a feasibility study as scheduled under the original work plan but it had to be discontinued as a consequence of the earthquake in 1972 With soaring fuel prices ENALUF decided to resume geothermal investigations Exploratory drilling is curshyrently underway with financing provided by commercial bank loans
US AID support was used to finance Lhe present study whose objectives are the prefeasibility analysis of possiblt hydioelectric development on the Rio Viejo Rio Coco and Rio Grande de Natagalpa plus a compleshymentary study for a pump-storage project at Laguna de Apoyo and the inshycorporation of the results of these investigations into a general analyshysis of the various generation alternatives in the elaboration of an overall development plan of the ENALUF system
225 FUEL OIL STORAGE AND DELIVERY FACILITIES
ENALUF maintains a fifteen day fuel oil storage facility at each thershymal plant site The sole source within the country for Bunker C fuel and diesel oil is a privately owned refinery located in Managua Figure II7 shows the siting of the offshore receiving station and pumping plant facilities located at Puerto Sonoza and the pipeline deshylivery system to the refinery Refined oil is transported by truck to the existing plants at Managua and Chinandega le method of fuel oil delivery for the Puerto Somoza Plant is currently being evaluated
226 FUEL COSTS
Figure I8 illustrates the historical increases in fuel prices paid byENALUF in Managua from 1972 through 1974 The cost of lunker C fuel more than tripled between the third quarter of 1973 and the second quarshyter of 1974 The corresponding price increase is from US$366 to US$1067 per barrel during this period Even with the tripling in price fuel prices continued to increase with the price of Bunker C rishysing to $1082 by the fourth quarter of 1974
227 THERMAL PLANT SITING STUDY
ENALUF has already completed comprehensive analyses of available sites for thermal generation Figure 119 shows the most promising thermal sites within the country Four of the five sites were selected on the basis of site selection studies conducted by IKujian Corporation in 1971 A detailed weighted evaluation of the principal factors considered bythem is provided in Table I12 All sites were selected with sufficient land to allow for possible future expansion storage of oil and to proshyvide adequate cooling water for an ultimate station capacity of 500 MW A summary of the relative ranking made by Kuljian of each of the sites selected is shown in Table 113
11-7
H o N D U R A S
-ONTERANTERNACIONAL I nterno n0a Border
J --
-0 NICARAGUA
L -CHINANDEGA
E
5IC St cLRIVATE
--
C LEON __ A
L G 9 0 de
SMa 0 no It Bbls E
PUERTO SOMOZA P I2r)60OOCBbs (2T) 76 190Bbls
L2T)ZTuJshy 6 o JMANAG -gt CJe ITE tj
NETARuo J es
4-
Cde 0NER C0 E 0L1B~-0000 Bbls Logo
Bunker CFuel Nicoraguo
LEYENDA
LEGEND
CENTRAL GEE -ATiNGSTATC
REFINERIA TANQUE DE ALMACENAMIENTO ENALUF ENALUF STOrGE TANK
TANQUE DE ALMACENAMIENTO PRIVADO STORAGE TANKESTACION DE BOMBEO Y CALENTAMIENTO
tNDPUMPl A HEATING STATION (18000 8Btsdio-Bblsday)
ESTACION MARITIMA MARINE STATION
BARRILES BARRELS
DOS TANQUEST
WOTANKS
FERROCARRIL AI L F 0 4 L
SISTEMA DE TUBERIAPARA ACEIT COMNUSTISLI FACILIOADES PARA ALMACEINAMIIENTOI ENTREIamp
FULL OIL PIPELINE S15117 TOFAGr -47 DELIVERY
FACILITIE3 C -
INTERNATIONAL ENGINEERING COMPANYINC
S
I E
-
e_ - _ __l
22 -I
FIGURA 1n 8
Figure 1 8
TENDENCIA DE PRECIOS DE FUEL PRICE TRENDS
1971- 1974
COMBUSTIBLES
20 - - -
- -
- -
- -4H -LEESEL~~
lt 16
14 - 1-- -
-
~o I
00
1971 I 972
Years
1 9735 1974
PRECIO DE VENTA A ENALUF PUESTO EN MANAGUA Price to ENALUF In Managua
FUENTE DIVISION DE ESTUDIOS ECONOMICOS Y ESTADISTICAS
SOURCE DIVISION OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICAL STUDIES
DE ENALUF
OF ENALUF
UBICACION DE SITIOS DISPONIBLES PARA PLANTAS TERMICAS AVAI_ABL- THERMAL PLANT SITE LOCATIONSN
NTO NAGAROTE
ACAHUAL INCA
PUERTO SOMOZA
MATEARE
FUENTE-
SOURCE =
REPORTE SOBRE SELECCION DE SITIOS YCARACTERISTICAS DE LAS PLANTAS
PARA ENALUF 1971PREPARADO POR KULJIAN CORPORATION 1971 REPORT ON SITE SELECTION AND PLANT CHARACTERISTICS FOR ENALUF PREPARED BY KULJIAN CORPORATION
TABLE 112
No
POINT RATING CRITERIA CORINTO
RELATIVE THERPAL PLANT
ASSIGNED RATING PUERTO SOMOZA
SITE EVALUATION
ASSIGNED RATING ACAHUALINCA
ASSIGNED RATING MATEARE
ASSIGNED RATING RATING_
40 20
60
Cooling Water SourceQuantity for 132 gt2 Unit Quantity for additional(4-100
MS Units)Availability
Good Good
On site
40 20
30
Good Good
On site
40 20
30
Fair Fair
Poor - Extens Submerged
20 -5
15
Fair Fair
Poor - ExtensSubmerged
20 15
15
2
3
5
6
40 40
2 50 20
40 50 40 200
20 30 40 60 20 30 200
0 60 100
60 60 40 40 20 60 40 40 40
4-
20 30 30 20
100
Quality Good - sea water 40 Puaping and Treatment Costs Nominal 40
170 ake-un ater Source
Quantity for 2-co -- Units None(Req Distil Plant) 10 Quantity for additional(4-100 Poor 10
MW Units)Quality Good (After distillation) 30 Availability On site 40 Treatment amp P=cping High 30 Point Rating 12-0
Fuel Availability0Oil Type Bunker C 20 Quantity Adequate 20 Delivery Tanker amp Pipe Line(Undergrd)20 Reliability Good 30 Storage On site 20 Terminal Facilities Docking at site 20 Point Rating 1-10
Labor Availability at SiteSemi-skilled Fair 30 Skilled Fair 30 Point Rating 60
Site Characteristics Land Acquisition Cost High 30 Land Development Cost Los 35 Space for 132 gt14Unit Adequate 20 Site Vulnerability Not vulnerable to Earthquake30 Space for ult500 gt24 Plant Cap Adequate wminor land fill 5 Proximity to Load-Future Poor 5 Sea Unloading Facilities Excellent 30 Railroad Facilities Excellent 20 Hichway Facilities Good 20 Point Rating 195
Community Characteristics Housing Near Site Poor 5 Schools amp Churches Adequate 20 Shopping amp Commaerce Fair 10 Health amp Recreation Fair 5 Point Rating 4O
Good - sea water Nominal
None (Requires Distil Plant) Poor
Good (After distillation) On site High
Bunker Adequate Tanker and Pipe Line Good On site Off-shore unloading
Fair Fair
Nominal Medium Adequate Not vulnerable to Earthquakes Adequate Good Fair Poor (none) Good
Good Fair Good Fair
40 401T--
i0
10
10 40 30 120
20 20 30 30 1u 20
120
30 30 60
40 30 25 30 15 40 20 --
20 220
10 15 15 5
45
Piping reqdGood - sea water Nomitl
Fair(Treat lake ater only) Adequate
Good On site Nominal
Bunker c Adequate Pipeline Fair (one company only) Off site - marginal Pipeline
Good Good
Nominal High Adequate Minor Uarthquakes Adecuate Excellent Not Available Good(with Limited Weights) Fair
Good Good
Excellent Good
30 40120
30 c0
30 50 40
170
0 20 i0 15 10 15 90
35 35 7O
40 10 25 25 15 50 10
20 15
21-0
10 20 20 15 6-5
Piping req-dGood - Fresh water 30 Nominal 40
120 120
Fair (Treat lake water only)30 Adequate 20
Good 30 On site 50 Nominal 40
170-
Bunker C 20 Adequate 20 Pipeline 10 Fair (one company -nly) 15 Off site - marginal 10 Pipeline 15
90
Good 35 Good 35
7-
Nominal 40 High 10 Adequate 25 Minor Earthquakes 25 Adequate 15 Excellent 50 Not Available 10 Good (with Limited Weights) 20 fair 15
2-0
Good 10 Good 20 Excellent 20 Good 15
6-5
1200 TOTAL POINT RATING (ideal)
Source Report on Site Selection and Plant Characteristics for ENALTF 1971 Kuljian Corporation Study
TABLE 113
RELATIVE RANKING OF THERMAL PLANT SITES IDEAL RATING = 1200
SITE ASSIGNED RATING
Puerto Somoza 735 Acahualinca 725 Mateare 725 Corinto 695
By Kuljian Corporation
The Puerto Somoza site was recommended at that time on the basis of its better topography and the availability of fuel at a lower rate comshypared with the inland sites of Acahualinca and Mateare More recent siting sutides by ENALUF recommend a site near Nagarote on Lago de Managua in preference to further expansion at Puerto Somoza The reshycommendation was made on the basis of lower initial capital costs for the plant and fuel costs comparable to those at Puerto Somoza Fuel supply to the Nagarote site would be by an oil pipeline from Puerto Somoza Economic comparison of th2 two sites showed that the Nagarote site would be preferred even for plant capacities of only 100 MW
228 GENERATION RESERVES AND RELIABILITY EVALUATION
ENALUF generation resource programs are evaluated using the followingcriteria In general programs are planned to exceed each of the crishyteria
A Standby Reserve Criteria Installed capacity margin after deducting scheduled maintenance sufficient to allow loss of the largest risk generating unit or interconnection
B Probabilistic Reliability Criteria Sufficient generating capacity is installed to insure that the expected number of days of generation capacity shortages will be limited to 10 days per year
This shortage represents the expectation that a specified generashytion resource program will serve forecast loads and allow for planned generation maintenance and random forced outages for each day of the year without requiring inadvertant delivery of additional capacity from interconnections with other utilities
229 ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS
Presently no air quality standards exist restricting emissions of oxides of sulphur (SO2) nitrogen (NOx) and cargon (CO) Emissions of particulate matter are also unregulated Water quality standards limiting chemical discharges and thermal loading of navigable watershyways are also nonexistent
11-9