Kyle Frazier Market Update [SF]_CA_TIBURON_2009!07!24

8/14/2019 Kyle Frazier Market Update [SF]_CA_TIBURON_2009!07!24

1/10

Current prices for homes on the mark

Trends in priciCurrent levels of supply and dema

Value metri

market updat

Kyle Frazier'

TIBURO

2009-07-

Report for the week

Powered by Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2009. All Rights Reserved

Morgan Lane Real Esta

[email protected]

Presented by Kyle Frazier, CR

(415) 350-94

www.altosresearch.com
http://www.altosresearch.com/http://www.altosresearch.com/


2/10

Kyle Frazier, CRS | Morgan Lane Real Estate | NorthBayRE.com | 415-350-9440

The median single family home

price in TIBURON this week is

$2,695,000. The 83 homes havebeen on the market for an

average of 177 days.

THIS WEEK

Most Expensive Listing

Least Expensive Listing

Median List Price

Average List Price

Real-Time Market Profile Trend

Total Inventory

$ 2,695,000

$ 3,785,165

$ 24,900,000

$ 810,000

83

177Average Days on Market

Asking Price per Square Foot $ 819

4Absorbed This Week*

Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 42 %

Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 5 %

Percent Flip (price increased) 0 %

City Overview TIBURON

0.25 - 0.50 acre

Altos Research Value Statistics

Market Action Index

Median Number of Bedrooms

Median Number of Bathrooms

Median House Size (sq ft)

Median Lot Size

Median Age

3,209

4.0

3.5

39

13Cold! Buyer's

Altos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supplyrelative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favorthe seller. See the section below for full details.

Inventory has been lightening

lately and the Market Action Indexhas been trending up. Though days

on-market is increasing, these are

mildly positive indications for the

market.

To get a tightly targeted

understanding of homes in themarket, we break each locale into

quartiles. Each quartile is 25% of th

homes listed.

QUARTILES

Characteristics per Quartile

Last Month's Trend Last Quarter's

Trend Key

No Clear Monthly/Quarterly

Bed BathMed.Sqft.

Med.Age Inven. New

Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart

Avg.DoM

*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons.Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which propertiessold.

Most expensive 25% of homes0.50 - 1.0 acre5,456 5.0 5.8 11 20 0 1$ 7,225,0001 221

Upper-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre3,658 5.0 3.5 42 21 1 0$ 3,198,0002 127

Lower-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre2,866 4.0 3.0 38 21 1 1$ 1,950,0003 227

Least expensive 25% of homes1,985 3.0 2.0 55 21 0 26,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 1,260,0004 136

We'll refer to the quartiles in the

trend graphs below.

Kyle Frazier's Market Update for TIBURON


3/10


PRICE

Prices continue their climb again

this week. Were a long way from

the markets price high-point so

watch the Market Action Index as

an indicator of how long this trend

will last.

QUARTILE PRICES

Price at the upper end of the

market are showing signs of

strength. While this strength hasn

percolated through to Quartiles 3

and 4 yet, expect the low end of the

market to follow up.

Often, we find insights by watching

pricing trends within the quartile

segments.



4/10


In a market where prices are rising

fairly consistently, price per square

foot is essentially flat. This often

implies that new homes coming on

the market are pricier, and also

larger than older homes. As a resu

the value one can buy stays the

same.

PRICE AND VALUE

INVENTORY

Inventory has been falling in recen

weeks. Note that declining

inventory alone does not signal a

strengthening market. Look to the

Market Action Index and Days on

Market trends to gauge whether

buyer interest is changing with the

available supply.



5/10


The TIBURON market is currently

quite strongly in the Buyer's

Market zone (below 30). The 90-day

Market Action Index stands at 13.

With several months of inventoryavailable at the current sales rate,

buyers should find ample choice.

Home sales have been exceeding

new inventory for several weeks.

While still a Buyers market, prices

seem to have responded by moving

upward. If the demand trends

continue, expect prices to keep

marching upward, especially once

we see a Sellers Market.

The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand

using a statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory.

An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a Seller's Market (a.k.a. "HotMarket") because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. Ahot market will typically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a"Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "Cold Market") where the inventory of already-listed homesis sufficient to last several months at the current rate of sales. A cold market willtypically cause prices to fall.

MARKET ACTION INDEXResidential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and marketconditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index forsustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyers Market zone for a long period,prices are likely in for a downward correction.

Not surprisingly given the overall

Market Action Index, all quartiles

are in the Buyers Market zone with

several months of inventory given

the current rate of demand for

homes in the quartile. Watch the

quartile for changes before the

overall market shifts. Often one end

of the market (e.g. the low end) wil

improve and signal a strengthening

market before the whole group

changes.The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homesin my price range?"

MARKET ACTION



6/10


DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)

The properties have been on the

market for an average of 177 days.

Half of the listings have come

newly on the market in the past

119 or so days.

DOM PER QUARTILE

It is not uncommon for the higher

priced homes in an area to take

longer to sell than those in the

lower quartiles.



7/10


94920Neighborhood DetailTIBURON

Most Expensive Listing

Least Expensive Listing

Median List Price

Average List Price

Real-Time Market Profile Trend

Total Inventory

$ 2,695,000

$ 3,785,165

$ 24,900,000

$ 810,000

83

177Average Days on Market

Asking Price per Square Foot $ 819

4Absorbed This Week

The median single family home

price in TIBURON 94920 this

week is $2,695,000.

THIS WEEK

Median Number of Bedrooms

Median Number of Bathrooms

Median House Size (sq ft)

Median Lot Size

Median Age

3,209

4.0

3.5

39Altos Research Value Statistics

0.25 - 0.50 acre

Market Action Index 13Cold! Buyer's

Inventory has been lightening

lately and the Market Action Index

has been trending up. Though days

on-market is increasing, these are

mildly positive indications for the

market.

PRICE

The market for this zip code

continues its bounce again this

week. Were a long way from the

markets high point so watch theMarket Action Index to predict

how long this trend will last.



8/10


PRICE PER QUARTILE

In the quartile market segments, w

see the upper end of the market in

this zip code showing signs of

strength. While this strength hasn

percolated through to Quartiles 3

and 4 yet, expect the low end of the

market to follow up, should the

upper-end strength continue.

QUARTILESCharacteristics per Quartile

Bed BathMed. Sqft Med.

Age Inven. NewAb-

sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuartAvg.DoM

Most expensive 25% of homes0.50 - 1.0 acre

5,456 5.0 5.8 11 20 0 1$ 7,225,0001 221

Upper-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50

acre3,658 5.0 3.5 42 21 1 0$ 3,198,0002 127

Lower-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50

acre2,866 4.0 3.0 38 21 1 1$ 1,950,0003 227

Least expensive 25% of homes1,985 3.0 2.0 55 21 0 26,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 1,260,0004 136

This is a market where watching

the value metrics (like price per

square foot) can provide insight

that you dont get at first glance.

Despite the fact that home prices

are rising fairly consistently, the

price per square foot of homes

listed is declining. Often this can be

attributed to new and remodeled

homes on the market. Buyers in tharea are paying more but also

getting more for their money.

PRICE AND VALUE



9/10


INVENTORY

Inventory has been falling in recen

weeks with 83 properties available

this week. Note that declining

inventory alone does not signal a

strengthening market. Look to the

Market Action Index to gauge

whether buyer interest is falling

with the available supply.

The TIBURON 94920 is quite

strongly in the Buyer's Market

zone. The 90-day Market ActionIndex stands at 13. With several

months of inventory available at

the current sales rate, buyers

should find ample choice.

MARKET ACTION INDEX

MARKET ACTIONNot surprisingly, all quartiles are in

the Buyers Market zone with

several months of inventory given

the current levels of demand.

Watch the quartiles for changes

before the overall market shifts.



10/10


DAYS ON MARKETThe properties have been on the

market for an average of 177 days.

Half of the listings have come newly

on the market in the past 119 or so

days. Watch the 90-day DOM trend

for signals of a changing market.

DAYS ON MARKET

It is not uncommon

for the higher priced homes in an

area (Quartiles 1 and 2) to take

longer to sell than those in the

lower quartiles.

About Altos Research CorporationAltos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets acrossthe country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and available

publicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition tothe market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to thebest of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estatedecision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other AltosResearch publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with alicensed real estate agent or broker.

Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2009. All Rights Reserved www.altosresearch.com

1Kyle Frazier's Market Update for TIBURON
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Kyle Frazier Market Update [SF]_CA_TIBURON_2009!07!24