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BEYOND NO REGRETS
Kyle A. Poyar2008 Ernest F. Hollings Scholar
Candidate for A.B. in Environmental StudiesPresentation to CES: April 30, 2010
Contact: [email protected]
// assessing the economic efficiency of climate adaptation in Rhode Island //
Climate Change in the U.S.“… unequivocal…”
“… occurring now…”
- U.S. Global Change Research Program (2009)
Adaptation to Climate Change
Moving Beyond No Regrets
Evaluation Criterion
Working Definition Example
No regrets Provides benefits with or without climate change (‘win-win’)
Restrict new development in areas already vulnerable to flooding
Equity Fair distribution of benefits (or losses)
Locate cooling/relief centers near low-income populations
Economic efficiency
Fiscal benefits exceed costs
Subsidize air-conditioning for the low-income elderly
Adapted from Poyar and Beller-Simms, 2009.
My Project
How could one apply economic methods to climate change adaptation policy?
How much will climate change-induced heat waves and hurricanes cost RI in $ terms?
When would adaptation be cost-effective?
Key Considerations
Net Present Value
Discount Rate 3%
Value of Human Life $6.9 million per life
Heat Waves, Climate Change, and Human Health
Urban Heat Island Effect
2003 European Heat Wave Kills 25,000
Heat Deaths in Rhode Island from 2007-2070
Emissions Scenario
Heat Deaths
Expected Annual Heat Deaths
Extra Deaths from Climate Change
High
Emissions
3,053 48 2,232
Low
Emissions
2,276 36 1,454
Costs of Extreme Heat from 2007-2070
Emissions Scenario
Cost (3% D.R.)
Cost (1.4% D.R.)
Cost (4.3% D.R.)
High
Emissions
$4.75
Billion
$8.75
Billion
$3.2
Billion
Low
Emissions
$3.1
Billion
$5.7
Billion
$2.1
Billion
Hurricanes and R.I.
New England Hurricane of 1938
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
2033
2036
2039
2042
2045
2048
2051
2054
2057
2060
2063
2066
2069
$0$100,000,000$200,000,000$300,000,000$400,000,000$500,000,000
Expected Annual Hurricane Damages in RI, 2007-2070
Hurricane Damages (High Emissions)Hurricane Damages (Low Emissions)Hurricane Damages (without Climate Change)
Emissions
Scenario
Average Annual
Cost
Cost (% of 2007 RI
GDP)
High Emissions $312 Million 0.66%
Low Emissions $252 Million 0.54%
Hurricanes and Economic Risk
Adaptation Options
Heat Waves Air-Conditioning Warning and Alert
Systems Urban Forestry
Hurricanes Relocation Strengthen buildings Hurricane barriers Preparedness , Evacuation
Cost-Benefit of Adaptation Policies
Net Present Value of
Adaptation
Low
Emissions
High
Emissions
Subsidize Air-Conditioners
(Elderly)
$75.1
million
$95.5 million
Subsidize Air-Conditioners
(All Ages)
$128.4
million
$176.8
million
Heat Warning and Alert
System
$610 million $791 million
Rebuild Fox Pt. Hurricane
Barrier
$1,470
million
$1,750
million
Implementing Climate Adaptation
Adaptation Options
Heat Waves Air-Conditioning Warning and Alert
Systems Urban Forestry
Hurricanes Relocation Strengthen buildings Hurricane barriers Preparedness , Evacuation
The Case for Urban Forestry
Federal Funding
Years Value of Emissions Permits (EPA)
Percentage of Funds for U.S. Adaptation
Annual Funding for U.S. Adaptation
2012-2021 $60 billion 2% $1.2 billion
2022-2026 $113 billion 4% $4.5 billion
2027-2050 > $113 billion 8% > $9 billion
Climate Risk Reduction Act
Conclusions
Adaptation to heat waves and hurricanes can be justified on cost-effectiveness grounds
Cost-benefit analyses can support projects with substantial benefits to vulnerable populations
Rhode Island should start taking bold adaptation action today
THANK YOU!
J. Timmons Roberts, Brown University Sri Nagavarapu, Brown University Nancy Beller-Simms, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration Gordon Sparks, University of
Saskatchewan Josh Foster, Center for Clean Air Policy Ivo Welch, Brown University Kurt Teichert, Brown University Fellow CES Students and ENV 201
Classmates
Discussion
What needs to happen (e.g. public awareness) for adaptation to move forward?
Discussion
To what extent should adaptation be a local, state, versus national issue?
Discussion
How can Brown students become more engaged in climate adaptation (policy and research)?
Discussion
Is cost-benefit analysis appropriate for climate change adaptation? What should be the role of equity, legitimacy, and other policy evaluation criteria?
