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1| Page KSU Agriculture Today Radio Notes Daniel O’Brien, Extension Agricultural Economist, Kansas State University For Radio Program to be aired 10:00-10:15 a.m., Friday, July 7, 2017 I. Grain Futures Closes, Changes & Carry on Thursday, July 6, 2017 Corn Futures Soybean Futures Kansas HRW Wheat Futures Month Close Change Month Close Change Month Close Change July 17 $3.80 ¼ $0.0150 July 17 $ 9.80 ¾ $0.0450 July 17 $5.30 ½ $0.2075 Sept 17 $3.90 ½ $0.0150 Aug 17 $ 9.85 ¾ $0.04 Sept 17 $5.46 ½ $0.23 Dec 17 $4.02 ¾ $0.0125 Sept 17 $ 9.90 ¾ $0.0425 Dec 17 $5.72 ¼ $0.22 Mar 18 $4.12 ¼ $0.01 Nov 17 $ 9.99 ¼ $0.05 Mar 18 $5.85 ¼ $0.2150 May 18 $4.17 ¼ $0.01 Jan 18 $10.06 ¾ $0.0525 May 18 $5.93 $0.2075 July 18 $4.22 ¼ $0.0050 Mar 18 $10.04 ¼ $0.05 July 18 $5.98 ¼ $0.2050 Sept 18 $4.15 $0.01 May 18 $10.06 ¾ $0.03 Sept 18 $6.05 ½ $0.20 Dec 18 $4.20 ½ $0.0050 July 18 $10.13 ¼ $0.0325 Dec 18 $6.20 $0.1750 Price Soybean$ / Price Corn$ Ratios on July 6, 2017: “Current Crop 2016/17 $SEPT 2017 Soybeans ÷ $SEPT 2017 Corn = $ 9.90 ¾ ÷ $3.90 ½ = 2.54 “New Crop 2017/18 $NOV 2017 Soybeans ÷ $DEC 2017 Corn = $ 9.99 ¼ ÷ $4.02 ¾ = 2.48 ***

KSU Agriculture Today Radio Notes - AgManager.info Agriculture Today Radio Notes ... ½ $0.0150 Aug 17 $ 9.85 ¾ $0.04 Sept 17 $5.46 ... 89.996 ma 90.004 ma 88.019 ma 95.597 ma 95.365

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Page 1: KSU Agriculture Today Radio Notes - AgManager.info Agriculture Today Radio Notes ... ½ $0.0150 Aug 17 $ 9.85 ¾ $0.04 Sept 17 $5.46 ... 89.996 ma 90.004 ma 88.019 ma 95.597 ma 95.365

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KSU Agriculture Today Radio Notes

Daniel O’Brien, Extension Agricultural Economist, Kansas State University

For Radio Program to be aired 10:00-10:15 a.m., Friday, July 7, 2017

I. Grain Futures Closes, Changes & Carry on Thursday, July 6, 2017

Corn Futures Soybean Futures Kansas HRW Wheat Futures

Month Close Change Month Close Change Month Close Change

July 17 $3.80 ¼ $0.0150  July 17 $ 9.80 ¾ $0.0450 July 17 $5.30 ½ $0.2075

Sept 17 $3.90 ½ $0.0150  Aug 17 $ 9.85 ¾ $0.04 Sept 17 $5.46 ½ $0.23

Dec 17 $4.02 ¾ $0.0125  Sept 17 $ 9.90 ¾ $0.0425 Dec 17 $5.72 ¼ $0.22

Mar 18 $4.12 ¼ $0.01  Nov 17 $ 9.99 ¼ $0.05 Mar 18 $5.85 ¼ $0.2150

May 18 $4.17 ¼ $0.01  Jan 18 $10.06 ¾ $0.0525 May 18 $5.93 $0.2075

July 18 $4.22 ¼ $0.0050  Mar 18 $10.04 ¼ $0.05 July 18 $5.98 ¼ $0.2050

Sept 18 $4.15 $0.01  May 18 $10.06 ¾ $0.03 Sept 18 $6.05 ½ $0.20

Dec 18 $4.20 ½ $0.0050  July 18 $10.13 ¼ $0.0325 Dec 18 $6.20 $0.1750

PriceSoybean$ / PriceCorn$ Ratios on July 6, 2017:

“Current Crop2016/17” $SEPT2017 Soybeans ÷ $SEPT2017 Corn = $ 9.90 ¾ ÷ $3.90 ½ = 2.54

“New Crop2017/18” $NOV2017 Soybeans ÷ $DEC2017 Corn = $ 9.99 ¼ ÷ $4.02 ¾ = 2.48 ***

 

 

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II. USDA Stocks & Acreage Report Results released on Friday, June 30, 2017

A1. USDA U.S. Quarterly Stocks Report – Pre-report Trade Estimates for June 1, 2017 (Source: DTN) & USDA History (2010-2016) (billion bushels or ‘bb’)

Crop June 1, 2017 Grain Stocks

Average Pre-report Trade Est.

Low-End Pre-report Trade Est.

High-End Pre-report Trade Est.

June 1, 2016 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2015 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2014 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2013 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2012 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2011 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2010 Grain Stocks

Corn (-) 5.225 bb

Highest since 2006/07

5.160 bb 4.945 bb *5.360 bb 4.711 bb 4.453 bb 3.852 bb 2.766 bb 3.148 bb 3.670 bb 4.310 bb

Soybeans (+) 0.963 bb

Highest since 2008/09

0.981 bb 0.872 bb 1.119 bb 0.872 bb 0.627 bb 0.405 bb 0.435 bb 0.667 bb 0.619 bb 0.571 bb

Wheat (-) 1.184 bb

Highest since 1987/88

1.154 bb 1.050 bb **1.185 bb 0.976 bb 0.752 bb 0.590 bb 0.718 bb 0.743 bb 0.863 bb 0.976 bb

Grain Sorghum (+) 0.086 bb

Down from 2016/17

0.097 bb **0.092 bb 0.102 bb 0.090 bb 0.034 bb 0.092 bb 0.041 bb 0.059 bb 0.080 bb 0.088 bb

 

A2. USDA U.S. Quarterly Grain Usage – March-May Grain Usage, 2010-2017 (billion bushels or ‘bb’)

Crop Mar-May 2017

Grain Use Mar-May 2016

Grain Use Mar-May 2015

Grain Use Mar-May 2014

Grain Use Mar-May 2013

Grain Use Mar-May 2012

Grain Use Mar-May 2011

Grain Use Mar-May 2010

Grain Use

Corn (+/-) 3.400 bb

Highest since 2007/08

3.131 bb 3.307 bb 3.165 bb 2.674 bb 2.886 bb 2.863 bb 3.387 bb

Soybeans (-) 0.775 bb 8 yr high 0.664 bb 0.708 bb 0.614 bb 0.571 bb 0.712 bb 0.632 bb 0.423 bb

Wheat (+) 0.472 bb 3 yr high 0.421 bb 0.424 bb 0.513 bb 0.548 bb 0.486 bb 0.585 bb 0.418 bb

Grain Sorghum (≈) 0.095 bb

Down from 2016/17

0.111 bb 0.086 bb 0.083 bb 0.056 bb 0.050 bb 0.091 bb 0.088 bb

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5.225

3.400

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

U.S. Corn Stocks U.S. Corn March‐May Use

Billion Bushels

U.S. Corn June 1st Stocks & March‐May Use (2010‐2017)

6/1/2010 6/1/2011 6/1/2012 6/1/2013 6/1/2014 6/1/2015 6/1/2016 6/1/2017

1.184

0.472

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

U.S. Wheat Stocks U.S. Wheat March‐May Use

Billion Bushels

U.S. Wheat June 1st Stocks & March‐May Use (2010‐2017)

6/1/2010 6/1/2011 6/1/2012 6/1/2013 6/1/2014 6/1/2015 6/1/2016 6/1/2017

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0.963

0.775

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

U.S. Soybean Stocks U.S. Soybean March‐May Use

Billion Bushels

U.S. Soybean June 1st Stocks & March‐May Use (2010‐2017)

6/1/2010 6/1/2011 6/1/2012 6/1/2013 6/1/2014 6/1/2015 6/1/2016 6/1/2017

8695

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

U.S. Sorghum Stocks U.S. Sorghum March‐May Use

Million Bushels

U.S. Grain Sorghum June 1st Stocks & March‐May Use (2010‐2017)

6/1/2010 6/1/2011 6/1/2012 6/1/2013 6/1/2014 6/1/2015 6/1/2016 6/1/2017

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A3. USDA Kansas Quarterly Stocks Report – USDA (2010-2017) (million bushels or ‘mb’)

Crop June 1, 2017 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2016 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2015 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2014 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2013 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2012 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2011 Grain Stocks

June 1, 2010 Grain Stocks

Corn – All Stocks 159.0 mb 169.2 mb 150 mb 120 mb 87 mb 122 mb 143 mb 175 mb

Corn – On Farm 40.0 mb 37.0 mb 40 mb 27 mb 16 mb 28 mb 21 mb 44 mb

Corn – Off Farm 119.0 mb 132.2 mb 110 mb 93 mb 71 mb 94 mb 122 mb 131 mb

Soybeans – All Stocks (-) 41.5 mb 28.3 mb 33 mb 17 mb 12 mb 27 mb 18 mb 18 mb

Soybeans – On Farm 8.9 mb 3.1 mb 6 mb 2 mb 3 mb 4 mb 4 mb 6 mb

Soybeans – Off Farm (-) 32.6 mb 25.2 mb 27 mb 15 mb 9 mb 23 mb 13 mb 12 mb

Wheat – All Stocks (-) 295.5 mb 207.9 mb 140 mb 117 mb 162 mb 141 mb 180 mb 158 mb

Wheat – On Farm 8.0 mb 8.0 mb 5 mb 3 mb 6 mb 3 mb 3 mb 6 mb

Wheat – Off Farm (-) 287.5 mb 199.9 mb 135 mb 114 mb 157 mb 138 mb 177 mb 152 mb

Grain Sorghum – All Stocks

(≈) 51.5 mb 50 mb 19 mb 60 mb 30 mb 42 mb 44 mb 51 mb

Grain Sorghum – On Farm 5.7 mb 6.5 mb 2 mb 2 mb 2 mb 3 mb 2 mb 6 mb

Grain Sorghum – Off Farm

(≈) 45.8 mb 43.8 mb 18 mb 57 mb 28 mb 39 mb 42 mb 45 mb

 

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B1. USDA U.S. Prospective Plantings Report – Pre-report Trade Estimates for June 1, 2017 (Source: DTN) & USDA History (2011-2016) (million acres or ‘ma’)

U.S. Crop

June 1, 2017 Acres

Estimates

Average Pre-report Trade Est.

Low-End Pre-report Trade Est.

High-End Pre-report Trade Est.

March 1, 2017 Planted Acres

Estimates 2016

U.S. Acres 2015

U.S. Acres 2014

U.S. Acres 2013

U.S. Acres 2012

U.S. Acres 2011

U.S. Acres

Corn - Planted (-) 90.886 ma 89.820 ma 89.000 ma *90.600 ma 89.996 ma 90.004 ma 88.019 ma 95.597 ma 95.365 ma 97.291 ma 91.936 ma

Corn – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)

(≈) 83.496 ma 91.9% 86.748 ma

96.4% 80.753 ma

91.7% 83.136 ma

87.0% 87.451 ma

91.7% 87.365 ma

89.8% 83.879 ma

91.2%

Soybeans - Planted (+) 89.513 ma 89.950 ma 88.900 ma 91.000 ma 89.482 ma 83.433 ma 82.650 ma 83.276 ma 76.840 ma 77.198 ma 75.046 ma

Soybeans – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)

(-) 88.731 ma 99.1% 82.736 ma

99.2% 81.732 ma

98.9% 82.591 ma

99.2% 76.253 ma

99.2% 76.144 ma

98.6% 73.776 ma

98.3%

All Wheat - Planted (+) 46.675 ma 46.050 ma 45.700 ma 47.400 ma 46.059 ma 50.154 ma 54.999 ma 56.841 ma 56.236 ma 55.294 ma 54.277 ma

All Wheat – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)

(+) 38.115 ma 81.7% 43.890 ma

87.5% 47.318 ma

86.0% 46.385 ma

81.6% 45.332 ma

80.6% 48.758 ma

88.2% 45.687 ma

84.2%

Winter Wheat - Planted (+) 32.839 ma 32.800 ma 32.600 ma 33.800 ma 32.747 ma 36.137 ma 39.681 ma 42.409 ma 43.230 ma 40.897 ma 40.596 ma

Winter Wheat – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)

25.760 ma 78.4% 30.222 ma

83.6% 32.346 ma

81.5% 32.299 ma

76.2% 32.650 ma

75.5% 34.609 ma

84.6% 32.378 ma

79.8%

Spring Wheat - Planted (+) 10.899 ma 11.230 ma *11.000 ma 11.600 ma 11.308 ma 11.605 ma 13.367 ma 13.025 ma 11.606 ma 12.259 ma 12.344 ma

Spring Wheat – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)

(+) 10.497 ma 96.3% 11.303 ma

97.4% 13.061 ma

97.7% 12.740 ma

97.8% 11.344 ma

97.8% 12.027 ma

98.1% 12.029 ma

97.4%

Durum Wheat - Planted (≈) 1.919 ma 2.000 ma 1.900 ma 2.200 ma 2.004 ma 2.412 ma 1.951 ma 1.407 ma 1.400 ma 2.138 ma 1.337 ma

Durum Wheat – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)

1.858 ma 96.8% 2.365 ma

98.1% 1.911 ma

97.9% 1.346 ma

95.7% 1.338 ma

95.6% 2.122 ma

99.3% 1.280 ma

95.7%

Grain Sorghum - Planted (-) 5.987 ma 5.810 ma 5.700 ma *5.900 ma 5.757 ma 6.690 ma 8.459 ma 7.138 ma 8.036 ma 6.259 ma 5.451 ma

Grain Sorghum – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)

5.311 ma 88.7% 6.163 ma

92.1% 7.851 ma

92.8% 6.401 ma

89.7% 6.585 ma

81.9% 4.995 ma

79.8% 3.945 ma

72.4%

 

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91.997.3 95.4 95.6

88.0 90.0 90.9

75.0 77.2 76.883.3 82.7 83.4

89.5

54.3 55.3 56.2 56.8 55.050.2 46.7

5.5 6.3 8.0 7.1 8.5 6.7 6.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Million Acres

Years

U.S. Planted Acres: Corn, Soybean, Wheat & Grain Sorghum   (2011‐2017)

U.S. Corn U.S. Soybeans U.S. Wheat U.S. Grain Sorghum

83.987.4 87.5

83.1

80.8

86.7

83.5

73.8 76.1 76.382.6

81.7

82.7

88.7

46.7 48.845.3 46.4 47.3

43.938.1

3.9 5.0 6.6 6.4 7.9 6.2 5.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Million Acres

Years

U.S. Harvested Acres: Corn, Soybean, Wheat & Grain Sorghum   (2011‐2017)

U.S. Corn U.S. Soybeans U.S. Wheat U.S. Grain Sorghum

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40.6 40.943.2 42.4

39.7

36.132.8

12.3 12.3 11.613.0 13.4

11.6 10.9

1.3 2.1 1.4 1.4 2.0 2.4 1.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Million Acres

Years

U.S. Wheat Planted Acres: Winter, Spring & Durum   (2011‐2017)

U.S. Winter Wheat U.S. Spring Wheat U.S. Durum Wheat

32.434.6

32.7 32.3 32.330.2

25.8

12.0 12.0 11.312.7 13.1

11.3 10.5

1.3 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.9 2.4 1.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Million Acres

Years

U.S. Wheat Harvested Acres: Winter, Spring & Durum   (2011‐2017)

U.S. Winter Wheat U.S. Spring Wheat U.S. Durum Wheat

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B2. USDA Kansas Prospective Plantings Report – USDA History (2011-2016) (million acres or ‘ma’)

U.S. Crop

June 1, 2017 Acres

Estimates

March 1, 2017 Planted Acres

Estimates 2016

U.S. Acres 2015

U.S. Acres 2014

U.S. Acres 2013

U.S. Acres 2012

U.S. Acres 2011

U.S. Acres 2010

U.S. Acres

Corn - Planted (-) 5.300 ma 5.200 ma 5.100 ma 4.150 ma 4.050 ma 4.300 ma 4.700 ma 4.900 ma 4.850 ma

Corn – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)

(-) 5.000 ma 94.3% 4.920 ma

96.5% 3.920 ma

94.5% 3.800 ma

94.5% 4.000 ma

93.0% 3.950 ma

84.0% 4.200 ma

85.7% 4.650 ma

95.9%

Soybeans (+/-) 4.750 ma 5.000 ma 4.050 ma 3.900 ma 4.000 ma 3.600 ma 4.000 ma 4.000 ma 4.300 ma

Soybeans – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)

(-) 4.700 ma 98.9% 4.010 ma

99.0% 3.860 ma

99.0% 3.960 ma

99.0% 3.540 ma

98.3% 3.820 ma

95.5% 3.760 ma

94.0% 4.250 ma

98.8%

All Wheat (+) 7.500 ma 7.500 ma 8.500 ma 9.200 ma 9.600 ma 9.500 ma 9.400 ma 8.800 ma 8.300 ma

All Wheat – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)

(+) 6.900 ma 92.0% 8.200 ma

96.5% 8.700 ma

94.6% 8.800 ma

91.7% 8.450 ma

88.9% 9.100 ma

96.8% 7.950 ma

90.3% 8.000 ma

96.4%

Grain Sorghum - Planted (≈) 2.700 ma 2.500 ma 3.100 ma 3.400 ma 2.850 ma 3.150 ma 2.500 ma 2.600 ma 2.350 ma

Sorghum – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)

(≈) 2.450 ma 90.7% 2.950 ma

95.2% 3.200 ma

94.1% 2.700 ma

94.7% 2.850 ma

90.5% 2.100 ma

84.0% 2.000 ma

76.9% 2.250 ma

95.7%

Sunflowers - Planted (≈) 0.070 ma 0.069 ma 0.063 ma 0.084 ma 0.063 ma 0.071 ma 0.087 ma 0.134 ma 0.139 ma

Sunflowers – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)

(≈) 0.065 ma 92.9% 0.058 ma

92.1% 0.078 ma

92.9% 0.059 ma

93.7% 0.065 ma

91.5% 0.081 ma

93.1% 0.122 ma

91.0% 0.133 ma

95.7%

Cotton (≈) 0.056 ma 0.056 ma 0.032 ma 0.016 ma 0.031 ma 0.027 ma 0.056 ma 0.080 ma 0.051 ma

Cotton – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted) 0.031 ma

96.9% 0.016 ma

100.0% 0.029 ma

93.5% 0.065 ma

91.5% 0.054 ma

96.4% 0.065 ma

81.3% 0.050 ma

98.0%

  

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III. U.S. & World Drought Monitor, Moisture Accumulations & Forecasts (Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin)

        

           

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III. Corn Market Information Daily SEPT 2017 Corn Futures  

 

  

Key Corn & Grain Sorghum Supply‐Demand Factors:  

U.S. Corn Exports: “Bullish” short‐term MY 2016/17 U.S. corn export shipments with “positive‐Bullish” long term sales outlook   

Weekly Export Shipments week of 6/29/2017 for MY 2016/17 = 43.1 mb                           vs 40.2 mb/wk needed to meet USDA’s June 9th projn of 2.225 bb exports 

Total shipments through 6/29/2017 for MY 2016/17 = 1.917 bb                                        i.e., 86.2% of 2.225 bb USDA projn with 82.6% of MY complete (43/52 weeks) 

Total sales (6/22/2017) for “current” MY 2016/17 = 2.183 bb                                             i.e., 98.1% of 2.225 bb USDA projn w. 80.8% of MY complete (42/52 weeks)  

U.S. Grain Sorghum Exports: “Bearish” short‐term MY 2016/17 grain sorghum export shipments & “neutral‐negative” long term sales 

Weekly Export Shipments wk of 6/29/2017 for MY 2016/17 = 0.637 mb                        vs 6.55 mb/wk needed to meet USDA’s June 9th projn of 225 mb exports 

Total shipments through 6/29/2017 for MY 2016/17 = 197.8 mb                                         i.e., 87.9% of 225 mb USDA projn with 82.6% of MY complete (43/52 weeks) 

Total new sales (6/22/2017) for “current” MY 2016/17 = 174.5 mb                                   i.e., 77.5% of 225 mb USDA projn w. 80.8% of MY complete (42/52 weeks)  

World & U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand Fundamentals  

Mktg Yr  World % S/U   U.S. % S/U  U.S. $/bu     U.S. Crop 2007/08  16.5% S/U    12.8% S/U  $4.20 /bu     13.038 bln bu 2008/09  18.3% S/U    13.9% S/U  $4.06 /bu     12.043 bln bu 2009/10  17.2% S/U    13.1% S/U  $3.55 /bu     13.067 bln bu 2010/11  14.5% S/U      8.7% S/U  $5.18 /bu     12.425 bln bu 2011/12  14.8% S/U      7.9% S/U  $6.22 /bu     12.314 bln bu 2012/13  15.3% S/U      7.4% S/U  $6.89 /bu     10.755 bln bu 2013/14  18.6% S/U      9.2% S/U   $4.46 /bu     13.829 bln bu 2014/15USDA  21.4% S/U    12.6% S/U  $3.70 /bu     14.216 bln bu 2015/16USDA  22.0% S/U    12.7% S/U  $3.61 /bu     13.601 bln bu 

2016/17USDA  21.3% S/U    15.7% S/U  $3.40 /bu     15.148 bln bu 

2017/18USDA  18.3% S/U    14.8% S/U           $3.40 /bu     14.065 bln bu 

U.S. Grain Sorghum Supply‐Demand Fundamentals  

  2014/15USDA    67.6 bu/acUS      4.0% S/U  $4.03 /bu          433 mln bu 

  2015/16USDA    76.0 bu/acUS      6.4% S/U  $3.31 /bu           597 mln bu 

2016/17USDA    77.9 bu/acUS    11.4% S/U  $2.65 /bu           480 mln bu 

2017/18USDA    67.1 bu/acUS      8.2% S/U           $3.00 /bu           331 mln bu 

  

SEPT 2017 Corn (Daily): $3.80 ¼ on Th., July 6, 2017     

Monthly  Corn Futures Continuation 

Chart 

SEPT 2017 Corn: $3.80 ¼ on Th., July 6, 2017     

$3.80

$3.09 

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V. Wheat Market Outlook Daily SEPT 2017 HRW Futures 

Monthly Kansas HRW Wheat eFutures 

  

Wheat Export Situation:  

U.S. All Wheat Exports: “Neutral” Short Term Export Shipments with “Positive” long run export prospects in “old crop” MY 2016/17 total sales 

– Weekly Export Shipments wk of 6/22/2017 for “new crop” MY 2017/18 = 18.6 mb                vs 18.7 mb /wk needed to meet USDA’s June 9th projn of 1.000 bb exports 

– Total shipments through 6/22/2017 for “new crop” MY 2017/18 = 102.6 mb                                  i.e., 10.3% of 1,000 mb USDA projn with 7.7% of MY complete (4/52 weeks) 

– Total shipments + new sales 6/22/2017 for “new crop” MY 2017/18 = 294.6 mb                            i.e., 29.5% of 1,000 mb USDA projn with 5.7% of MY complete (3/52 weeks) 

SEPT 2017 KC Wheat (Daily)$4.67 ¾ on Th., July 6, 2017

SEPT 2017 KC Wheat

$4.67 ¾ on Th.,July 6, 2017 

$4.68

$4.71 

$3.97

 “Negative” World & U.S. Wheat S/D Fundamentals 

Mktg Yr       World % S/U   World Crop  U.S. % S/U   U.S. $/bu   U.S. Exports  

2007/08  20.8% S/U      611.9 mmt   13.2% S/U    $6.48 /bu      1,263 mln bu  

2008/09  26.5% S/U      684.0 mmt  28.7% S/U    $6.78 /bu      1,015 mln bu 

2009/10  31.2% S/U      687.2 mmt  48.6% S/U    $4.87 /bu         879 mln bu 

2010/11  30.4% S/U      649.5 mmt  36.4% S/U    $5.70 /bu      1,291 mln bu 

2011/12  28.6% S/U      697.3 mmt  33.4% S/U    $7.24 /bu      1,051 mln bu 

2012/13  25.7% S/U      658.6 mmt  29.9% S/U    $7.77 /bu      1,012 mln bu 

2013/14  28.1% S/U      715.1 mmt  24.2% S/U    $6.87 /bu      1,176 mln bu 

2014/15  30.9% S/U      728.0 mmt  37.3% S/U    $5.99 /bu         864 mln bu 

2015/16USDA  34.1% S/U      737.0 mmt  50.0% S/U    $4.89 /bu         775 mln bu 

2016/17USDA  34.6% S/U     754.1 mmt  51.8% S/U    $3.90 /bu     1,035 mln bu 

2017/18USDA  35.5% S/U     739.5 mmt  42.2% S/U    $4.30 /bu     1,000 mln bu 

Monthly  KS HRW Wheat 

Futures Continuation 

Chart 

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VI. Soybean Market Outlook Daily SEPT 2017 Soybean Futures

      

Monthly Soybean eFutures

  

Daily SEPT 2017 Soybeans $9.85 ¾ on Th., July 6, 2017 

Key Soybean Supply‐Demand Issues:  

U.S. Soybean Exports: “Negative” short run export shipments in “current” MY 2016/17 and “positive‐bullish” total sales   

o Export Shipments for week of 6/29/2017 for “current” MY 2016/17 = 9.8 mb                        vs 13.4 mb/wk needed to meet USDA’s June 9th projn of 2.050 bb exports   

o Total shipments through 6/29/2017 for “current” MY 2016/17 = 1.929 bln bu                       i.e., 94.1% of 2.050 bb USDA projn with 82.6% of MY complete (43/52 weeks) 

o Total new sales (6/22/2017) for “current” MY 2016/17 = 2.181 bb                                           i.e., 106.4% of 2.050 bb USDA projn with 80.8% of MY complete (42/52 weeks)  

World & U.S. Soybean Supply‐Demand Fundamentals 

Mktg Yr       World % S/U   World Crop   U.S. % S/U    U.S. $/bu   U.S. Exports  

2007/08  22.9% S/U      219.0 mmt      6.7% S/U    $10.10 /bu   1.159 bln bu 

2008/09  19.3% S/U      212.0 mmt   4.5% S/U    $  9.97 /bu   1.279 bln bu 

2009/10  25.2% S/U      260.5 mmt      4.5% S/U    $  9.59 /bu   1.499 bln bu 

2010/11  27.7% S/U      264.3 mmt   6.6% S/U    $11.30 /bu   1.505 bln bu 

2011/12  20.3% S/U      240.6 mmt        5.4% S/U    $12.50 /bu   1.365 bln bu 

2012/13  21.0% S/U      268.6 mmt      4.5% S/U    $14.40 /bu   1.328 bln bu 

2013/14  22.4% S/U      282.5 mmt   2.7% S/U    $13.00 /bu   1.638 bln bu 

2014/15  25.7% S/U      319.6 mmt       4.9% S/U    $10.10 /bu   1.842 bln bu 

2015/16USDA  24.5% S/U      312.9 mmt   5.0% S/U    $  8.95 /bu   1.936 bln bu 

2016/17USDA  28.1% S/U     351.3 mmt    11.0% S/U    $  9.55 /bu   2.050 bln bu 

2017/18USDA  26.8% S/U     344.7 mmt    11.7% S/U   $   9.30 /bu   2.150 bln bu 

 

 

  

 

SEPT 2017 Soybeans $9.85 ¾ on Th., July 6, 2017 

$9.86

$8.44 ¼ $7.76 ¼