Upload
vanquynh
View
216
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1 | P a g e
KSU Agriculture Today Radio Notes
Daniel O’Brien, Extension Agricultural Economist, Kansas State University
For Radio Program to be aired 10:00-10:15 a.m., Friday, July 7, 2017
I. Grain Futures Closes, Changes & Carry on Thursday, July 6, 2017
Corn Futures Soybean Futures Kansas HRW Wheat Futures
Month Close Change Month Close Change Month Close Change
July 17 $3.80 ¼ $0.0150 July 17 $ 9.80 ¾ $0.0450 July 17 $5.30 ½ $0.2075
Sept 17 $3.90 ½ $0.0150 Aug 17 $ 9.85 ¾ $0.04 Sept 17 $5.46 ½ $0.23
Dec 17 $4.02 ¾ $0.0125 Sept 17 $ 9.90 ¾ $0.0425 Dec 17 $5.72 ¼ $0.22
Mar 18 $4.12 ¼ $0.01 Nov 17 $ 9.99 ¼ $0.05 Mar 18 $5.85 ¼ $0.2150
May 18 $4.17 ¼ $0.01 Jan 18 $10.06 ¾ $0.0525 May 18 $5.93 $0.2075
July 18 $4.22 ¼ $0.0050 Mar 18 $10.04 ¼ $0.05 July 18 $5.98 ¼ $0.2050
Sept 18 $4.15 $0.01 May 18 $10.06 ¾ $0.03 Sept 18 $6.05 ½ $0.20
Dec 18 $4.20 ½ $0.0050 July 18 $10.13 ¼ $0.0325 Dec 18 $6.20 $0.1750
PriceSoybean$ / PriceCorn$ Ratios on July 6, 2017:
“Current Crop2016/17” $SEPT2017 Soybeans ÷ $SEPT2017 Corn = $ 9.90 ¾ ÷ $3.90 ½ = 2.54
“New Crop2017/18” $NOV2017 Soybeans ÷ $DEC2017 Corn = $ 9.99 ¼ ÷ $4.02 ¾ = 2.48 ***
2 | P a g e
II. USDA Stocks & Acreage Report Results released on Friday, June 30, 2017
A1. USDA U.S. Quarterly Stocks Report – Pre-report Trade Estimates for June 1, 2017 (Source: DTN) & USDA History (2010-2016) (billion bushels or ‘bb’)
Crop June 1, 2017 Grain Stocks
Average Pre-report Trade Est.
Low-End Pre-report Trade Est.
High-End Pre-report Trade Est.
June 1, 2016 Grain Stocks
June 1, 2015 Grain Stocks
June 1, 2014 Grain Stocks
June 1, 2013 Grain Stocks
June 1, 2012 Grain Stocks
June 1, 2011 Grain Stocks
June 1, 2010 Grain Stocks
Corn (-) 5.225 bb
Highest since 2006/07
5.160 bb 4.945 bb *5.360 bb 4.711 bb 4.453 bb 3.852 bb 2.766 bb 3.148 bb 3.670 bb 4.310 bb
Soybeans (+) 0.963 bb
Highest since 2008/09
0.981 bb 0.872 bb 1.119 bb 0.872 bb 0.627 bb 0.405 bb 0.435 bb 0.667 bb 0.619 bb 0.571 bb
Wheat (-) 1.184 bb
Highest since 1987/88
1.154 bb 1.050 bb **1.185 bb 0.976 bb 0.752 bb 0.590 bb 0.718 bb 0.743 bb 0.863 bb 0.976 bb
Grain Sorghum (+) 0.086 bb
Down from 2016/17
0.097 bb **0.092 bb 0.102 bb 0.090 bb 0.034 bb 0.092 bb 0.041 bb 0.059 bb 0.080 bb 0.088 bb
A2. USDA U.S. Quarterly Grain Usage – March-May Grain Usage, 2010-2017 (billion bushels or ‘bb’)
Crop Mar-May 2017
Grain Use Mar-May 2016
Grain Use Mar-May 2015
Grain Use Mar-May 2014
Grain Use Mar-May 2013
Grain Use Mar-May 2012
Grain Use Mar-May 2011
Grain Use Mar-May 2010
Grain Use
Corn (+/-) 3.400 bb
Highest since 2007/08
3.131 bb 3.307 bb 3.165 bb 2.674 bb 2.886 bb 2.863 bb 3.387 bb
Soybeans (-) 0.775 bb 8 yr high 0.664 bb 0.708 bb 0.614 bb 0.571 bb 0.712 bb 0.632 bb 0.423 bb
Wheat (+) 0.472 bb 3 yr high 0.421 bb 0.424 bb 0.513 bb 0.548 bb 0.486 bb 0.585 bb 0.418 bb
Grain Sorghum (≈) 0.095 bb
Down from 2016/17
0.111 bb 0.086 bb 0.083 bb 0.056 bb 0.050 bb 0.091 bb 0.088 bb
3 | P a g e
5.225
3.400
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
U.S. Corn Stocks U.S. Corn March‐May Use
Billion Bushels
U.S. Corn June 1st Stocks & March‐May Use (2010‐2017)
6/1/2010 6/1/2011 6/1/2012 6/1/2013 6/1/2014 6/1/2015 6/1/2016 6/1/2017
1.184
0.472
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
U.S. Wheat Stocks U.S. Wheat March‐May Use
Billion Bushels
U.S. Wheat June 1st Stocks & March‐May Use (2010‐2017)
6/1/2010 6/1/2011 6/1/2012 6/1/2013 6/1/2014 6/1/2015 6/1/2016 6/1/2017
4 | P a g e
0.963
0.775
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
U.S. Soybean Stocks U.S. Soybean March‐May Use
Billion Bushels
U.S. Soybean June 1st Stocks & March‐May Use (2010‐2017)
6/1/2010 6/1/2011 6/1/2012 6/1/2013 6/1/2014 6/1/2015 6/1/2016 6/1/2017
8695
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
U.S. Sorghum Stocks U.S. Sorghum March‐May Use
Million Bushels
U.S. Grain Sorghum June 1st Stocks & March‐May Use (2010‐2017)
6/1/2010 6/1/2011 6/1/2012 6/1/2013 6/1/2014 6/1/2015 6/1/2016 6/1/2017
5 | P a g e
A3. USDA Kansas Quarterly Stocks Report – USDA (2010-2017) (million bushels or ‘mb’)
Crop June 1, 2017 Grain Stocks
June 1, 2016 Grain Stocks
June 1, 2015 Grain Stocks
June 1, 2014 Grain Stocks
June 1, 2013 Grain Stocks
June 1, 2012 Grain Stocks
June 1, 2011 Grain Stocks
June 1, 2010 Grain Stocks
Corn – All Stocks 159.0 mb 169.2 mb 150 mb 120 mb 87 mb 122 mb 143 mb 175 mb
Corn – On Farm 40.0 mb 37.0 mb 40 mb 27 mb 16 mb 28 mb 21 mb 44 mb
Corn – Off Farm 119.0 mb 132.2 mb 110 mb 93 mb 71 mb 94 mb 122 mb 131 mb
Soybeans – All Stocks (-) 41.5 mb 28.3 mb 33 mb 17 mb 12 mb 27 mb 18 mb 18 mb
Soybeans – On Farm 8.9 mb 3.1 mb 6 mb 2 mb 3 mb 4 mb 4 mb 6 mb
Soybeans – Off Farm (-) 32.6 mb 25.2 mb 27 mb 15 mb 9 mb 23 mb 13 mb 12 mb
Wheat – All Stocks (-) 295.5 mb 207.9 mb 140 mb 117 mb 162 mb 141 mb 180 mb 158 mb
Wheat – On Farm 8.0 mb 8.0 mb 5 mb 3 mb 6 mb 3 mb 3 mb 6 mb
Wheat – Off Farm (-) 287.5 mb 199.9 mb 135 mb 114 mb 157 mb 138 mb 177 mb 152 mb
Grain Sorghum – All Stocks
(≈) 51.5 mb 50 mb 19 mb 60 mb 30 mb 42 mb 44 mb 51 mb
Grain Sorghum – On Farm 5.7 mb 6.5 mb 2 mb 2 mb 2 mb 3 mb 2 mb 6 mb
Grain Sorghum – Off Farm
(≈) 45.8 mb 43.8 mb 18 mb 57 mb 28 mb 39 mb 42 mb 45 mb
6 | P a g e
B1. USDA U.S. Prospective Plantings Report – Pre-report Trade Estimates for June 1, 2017 (Source: DTN) & USDA History (2011-2016) (million acres or ‘ma’)
U.S. Crop
June 1, 2017 Acres
Estimates
Average Pre-report Trade Est.
Low-End Pre-report Trade Est.
High-End Pre-report Trade Est.
March 1, 2017 Planted Acres
Estimates 2016
U.S. Acres 2015
U.S. Acres 2014
U.S. Acres 2013
U.S. Acres 2012
U.S. Acres 2011
U.S. Acres
Corn - Planted (-) 90.886 ma 89.820 ma 89.000 ma *90.600 ma 89.996 ma 90.004 ma 88.019 ma 95.597 ma 95.365 ma 97.291 ma 91.936 ma
Corn – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)
(≈) 83.496 ma 91.9% 86.748 ma
96.4% 80.753 ma
91.7% 83.136 ma
87.0% 87.451 ma
91.7% 87.365 ma
89.8% 83.879 ma
91.2%
Soybeans - Planted (+) 89.513 ma 89.950 ma 88.900 ma 91.000 ma 89.482 ma 83.433 ma 82.650 ma 83.276 ma 76.840 ma 77.198 ma 75.046 ma
Soybeans – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)
(-) 88.731 ma 99.1% 82.736 ma
99.2% 81.732 ma
98.9% 82.591 ma
99.2% 76.253 ma
99.2% 76.144 ma
98.6% 73.776 ma
98.3%
All Wheat - Planted (+) 46.675 ma 46.050 ma 45.700 ma 47.400 ma 46.059 ma 50.154 ma 54.999 ma 56.841 ma 56.236 ma 55.294 ma 54.277 ma
All Wheat – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)
(+) 38.115 ma 81.7% 43.890 ma
87.5% 47.318 ma
86.0% 46.385 ma
81.6% 45.332 ma
80.6% 48.758 ma
88.2% 45.687 ma
84.2%
Winter Wheat - Planted (+) 32.839 ma 32.800 ma 32.600 ma 33.800 ma 32.747 ma 36.137 ma 39.681 ma 42.409 ma 43.230 ma 40.897 ma 40.596 ma
Winter Wheat – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)
25.760 ma 78.4% 30.222 ma
83.6% 32.346 ma
81.5% 32.299 ma
76.2% 32.650 ma
75.5% 34.609 ma
84.6% 32.378 ma
79.8%
Spring Wheat - Planted (+) 10.899 ma 11.230 ma *11.000 ma 11.600 ma 11.308 ma 11.605 ma 13.367 ma 13.025 ma 11.606 ma 12.259 ma 12.344 ma
Spring Wheat – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)
(+) 10.497 ma 96.3% 11.303 ma
97.4% 13.061 ma
97.7% 12.740 ma
97.8% 11.344 ma
97.8% 12.027 ma
98.1% 12.029 ma
97.4%
Durum Wheat - Planted (≈) 1.919 ma 2.000 ma 1.900 ma 2.200 ma 2.004 ma 2.412 ma 1.951 ma 1.407 ma 1.400 ma 2.138 ma 1.337 ma
Durum Wheat – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)
1.858 ma 96.8% 2.365 ma
98.1% 1.911 ma
97.9% 1.346 ma
95.7% 1.338 ma
95.6% 2.122 ma
99.3% 1.280 ma
95.7%
Grain Sorghum - Planted (-) 5.987 ma 5.810 ma 5.700 ma *5.900 ma 5.757 ma 6.690 ma 8.459 ma 7.138 ma 8.036 ma 6.259 ma 5.451 ma
Grain Sorghum – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)
5.311 ma 88.7% 6.163 ma
92.1% 7.851 ma
92.8% 6.401 ma
89.7% 6.585 ma
81.9% 4.995 ma
79.8% 3.945 ma
72.4%
7 | P a g e
91.997.3 95.4 95.6
88.0 90.0 90.9
75.0 77.2 76.883.3 82.7 83.4
89.5
54.3 55.3 56.2 56.8 55.050.2 46.7
5.5 6.3 8.0 7.1 8.5 6.7 6.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Million Acres
Years
U.S. Planted Acres: Corn, Soybean, Wheat & Grain Sorghum (2011‐2017)
U.S. Corn U.S. Soybeans U.S. Wheat U.S. Grain Sorghum
83.987.4 87.5
83.1
80.8
86.7
83.5
73.8 76.1 76.382.6
81.7
82.7
88.7
46.7 48.845.3 46.4 47.3
43.938.1
3.9 5.0 6.6 6.4 7.9 6.2 5.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Million Acres
Years
U.S. Harvested Acres: Corn, Soybean, Wheat & Grain Sorghum (2011‐2017)
U.S. Corn U.S. Soybeans U.S. Wheat U.S. Grain Sorghum
8 | P a g e
40.6 40.943.2 42.4
39.7
36.132.8
12.3 12.3 11.613.0 13.4
11.6 10.9
1.3 2.1 1.4 1.4 2.0 2.4 1.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Million Acres
Years
U.S. Wheat Planted Acres: Winter, Spring & Durum (2011‐2017)
U.S. Winter Wheat U.S. Spring Wheat U.S. Durum Wheat
32.434.6
32.7 32.3 32.330.2
25.8
12.0 12.0 11.312.7 13.1
11.3 10.5
1.3 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.9 2.4 1.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Million Acres
Years
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acres: Winter, Spring & Durum (2011‐2017)
U.S. Winter Wheat U.S. Spring Wheat U.S. Durum Wheat
9 | P a g e
B2. USDA Kansas Prospective Plantings Report – USDA History (2011-2016) (million acres or ‘ma’)
U.S. Crop
June 1, 2017 Acres
Estimates
March 1, 2017 Planted Acres
Estimates 2016
U.S. Acres 2015
U.S. Acres 2014
U.S. Acres 2013
U.S. Acres 2012
U.S. Acres 2011
U.S. Acres 2010
U.S. Acres
Corn - Planted (-) 5.300 ma 5.200 ma 5.100 ma 4.150 ma 4.050 ma 4.300 ma 4.700 ma 4.900 ma 4.850 ma
Corn – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)
(-) 5.000 ma 94.3% 4.920 ma
96.5% 3.920 ma
94.5% 3.800 ma
94.5% 4.000 ma
93.0% 3.950 ma
84.0% 4.200 ma
85.7% 4.650 ma
95.9%
Soybeans (+/-) 4.750 ma 5.000 ma 4.050 ma 3.900 ma 4.000 ma 3.600 ma 4.000 ma 4.000 ma 4.300 ma
Soybeans – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)
(-) 4.700 ma 98.9% 4.010 ma
99.0% 3.860 ma
99.0% 3.960 ma
99.0% 3.540 ma
98.3% 3.820 ma
95.5% 3.760 ma
94.0% 4.250 ma
98.8%
All Wheat (+) 7.500 ma 7.500 ma 8.500 ma 9.200 ma 9.600 ma 9.500 ma 9.400 ma 8.800 ma 8.300 ma
All Wheat – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)
(+) 6.900 ma 92.0% 8.200 ma
96.5% 8.700 ma
94.6% 8.800 ma
91.7% 8.450 ma
88.9% 9.100 ma
96.8% 7.950 ma
90.3% 8.000 ma
96.4%
Grain Sorghum - Planted (≈) 2.700 ma 2.500 ma 3.100 ma 3.400 ma 2.850 ma 3.150 ma 2.500 ma 2.600 ma 2.350 ma
Sorghum – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)
(≈) 2.450 ma 90.7% 2.950 ma
95.2% 3.200 ma
94.1% 2.700 ma
94.7% 2.850 ma
90.5% 2.100 ma
84.0% 2.000 ma
76.9% 2.250 ma
95.7%
Sunflowers - Planted (≈) 0.070 ma 0.069 ma 0.063 ma 0.084 ma 0.063 ma 0.071 ma 0.087 ma 0.134 ma 0.139 ma
Sunflowers – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted)
(≈) 0.065 ma 92.9% 0.058 ma
92.1% 0.078 ma
92.9% 0.059 ma
93.7% 0.065 ma
91.5% 0.081 ma
93.1% 0.122 ma
91.0% 0.133 ma
95.7%
Cotton (≈) 0.056 ma 0.056 ma 0.032 ma 0.016 ma 0.031 ma 0.027 ma 0.056 ma 0.080 ma 0.051 ma
Cotton – Harvested (% Harvested / Planted) 0.031 ma
96.9% 0.016 ma
100.0% 0.029 ma
93.5% 0.065 ma
91.5% 0.054 ma
96.4% 0.065 ma
81.3% 0.050 ma
98.0%
10 | P a g e
III. U.S. & World Drought Monitor, Moisture Accumulations & Forecasts (Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin)
11 | P a g e
12 | P a g e
13 | P a g e
14 | P a g e
III. Corn Market Information Daily SEPT 2017 Corn Futures
Key Corn & Grain Sorghum Supply‐Demand Factors:
U.S. Corn Exports: “Bullish” short‐term MY 2016/17 U.S. corn export shipments with “positive‐Bullish” long term sales outlook
Weekly Export Shipments week of 6/29/2017 for MY 2016/17 = 43.1 mb vs 40.2 mb/wk needed to meet USDA’s June 9th projn of 2.225 bb exports
Total shipments through 6/29/2017 for MY 2016/17 = 1.917 bb i.e., 86.2% of 2.225 bb USDA projn with 82.6% of MY complete (43/52 weeks)
Total sales (6/22/2017) for “current” MY 2016/17 = 2.183 bb i.e., 98.1% of 2.225 bb USDA projn w. 80.8% of MY complete (42/52 weeks)
U.S. Grain Sorghum Exports: “Bearish” short‐term MY 2016/17 grain sorghum export shipments & “neutral‐negative” long term sales
Weekly Export Shipments wk of 6/29/2017 for MY 2016/17 = 0.637 mb vs 6.55 mb/wk needed to meet USDA’s June 9th projn of 225 mb exports
Total shipments through 6/29/2017 for MY 2016/17 = 197.8 mb i.e., 87.9% of 225 mb USDA projn with 82.6% of MY complete (43/52 weeks)
Total new sales (6/22/2017) for “current” MY 2016/17 = 174.5 mb i.e., 77.5% of 225 mb USDA projn w. 80.8% of MY complete (42/52 weeks)
World & U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand Fundamentals
Mktg Yr World % S/U U.S. % S/U U.S. $/bu U.S. Crop 2007/08 16.5% S/U 12.8% S/U $4.20 /bu 13.038 bln bu 2008/09 18.3% S/U 13.9% S/U $4.06 /bu 12.043 bln bu 2009/10 17.2% S/U 13.1% S/U $3.55 /bu 13.067 bln bu 2010/11 14.5% S/U 8.7% S/U $5.18 /bu 12.425 bln bu 2011/12 14.8% S/U 7.9% S/U $6.22 /bu 12.314 bln bu 2012/13 15.3% S/U 7.4% S/U $6.89 /bu 10.755 bln bu 2013/14 18.6% S/U 9.2% S/U $4.46 /bu 13.829 bln bu 2014/15USDA 21.4% S/U 12.6% S/U $3.70 /bu 14.216 bln bu 2015/16USDA 22.0% S/U 12.7% S/U $3.61 /bu 13.601 bln bu
2016/17USDA 21.3% S/U 15.7% S/U $3.40 /bu 15.148 bln bu
2017/18USDA 18.3% S/U 14.8% S/U $3.40 /bu 14.065 bln bu
U.S. Grain Sorghum Supply‐Demand Fundamentals
2014/15USDA 67.6 bu/acUS 4.0% S/U $4.03 /bu 433 mln bu
2015/16USDA 76.0 bu/acUS 6.4% S/U $3.31 /bu 597 mln bu
2016/17USDA 77.9 bu/acUS 11.4% S/U $2.65 /bu 480 mln bu
2017/18USDA 67.1 bu/acUS 8.2% S/U $3.00 /bu 331 mln bu
SEPT 2017 Corn (Daily): $3.80 ¼ on Th., July 6, 2017
Monthly Corn Futures Continuation
Chart
SEPT 2017 Corn: $3.80 ¼ on Th., July 6, 2017
$3.80
$3.09
15 | P a g e
16 | P a g e
17 | P a g e
18 | P a g e
19 | P a g e
V. Wheat Market Outlook Daily SEPT 2017 HRW Futures
Monthly Kansas HRW Wheat eFutures
Wheat Export Situation:
U.S. All Wheat Exports: “Neutral” Short Term Export Shipments with “Positive” long run export prospects in “old crop” MY 2016/17 total sales
– Weekly Export Shipments wk of 6/22/2017 for “new crop” MY 2017/18 = 18.6 mb vs 18.7 mb /wk needed to meet USDA’s June 9th projn of 1.000 bb exports
– Total shipments through 6/22/2017 for “new crop” MY 2017/18 = 102.6 mb i.e., 10.3% of 1,000 mb USDA projn with 7.7% of MY complete (4/52 weeks)
– Total shipments + new sales 6/22/2017 for “new crop” MY 2017/18 = 294.6 mb i.e., 29.5% of 1,000 mb USDA projn with 5.7% of MY complete (3/52 weeks)
SEPT 2017 KC Wheat (Daily)$4.67 ¾ on Th., July 6, 2017
SEPT 2017 KC Wheat
$4.67 ¾ on Th.,July 6, 2017
$4.68
$4.71
$3.97
“Negative” World & U.S. Wheat S/D Fundamentals
Mktg Yr World % S/U World Crop U.S. % S/U U.S. $/bu U.S. Exports
2007/08 20.8% S/U 611.9 mmt 13.2% S/U $6.48 /bu 1,263 mln bu
2008/09 26.5% S/U 684.0 mmt 28.7% S/U $6.78 /bu 1,015 mln bu
2009/10 31.2% S/U 687.2 mmt 48.6% S/U $4.87 /bu 879 mln bu
2010/11 30.4% S/U 649.5 mmt 36.4% S/U $5.70 /bu 1,291 mln bu
2011/12 28.6% S/U 697.3 mmt 33.4% S/U $7.24 /bu 1,051 mln bu
2012/13 25.7% S/U 658.6 mmt 29.9% S/U $7.77 /bu 1,012 mln bu
2013/14 28.1% S/U 715.1 mmt 24.2% S/U $6.87 /bu 1,176 mln bu
2014/15 30.9% S/U 728.0 mmt 37.3% S/U $5.99 /bu 864 mln bu
2015/16USDA 34.1% S/U 737.0 mmt 50.0% S/U $4.89 /bu 775 mln bu
2016/17USDA 34.6% S/U 754.1 mmt 51.8% S/U $3.90 /bu 1,035 mln bu
2017/18USDA 35.5% S/U 739.5 mmt 42.2% S/U $4.30 /bu 1,000 mln bu
Monthly KS HRW Wheat
Futures Continuation
Chart
20 | P a g e
VI. Soybean Market Outlook Daily SEPT 2017 Soybean Futures
Monthly Soybean eFutures
Daily SEPT 2017 Soybeans $9.85 ¾ on Th., July 6, 2017
Key Soybean Supply‐Demand Issues:
U.S. Soybean Exports: “Negative” short run export shipments in “current” MY 2016/17 and “positive‐bullish” total sales
o Export Shipments for week of 6/29/2017 for “current” MY 2016/17 = 9.8 mb vs 13.4 mb/wk needed to meet USDA’s June 9th projn of 2.050 bb exports
o Total shipments through 6/29/2017 for “current” MY 2016/17 = 1.929 bln bu i.e., 94.1% of 2.050 bb USDA projn with 82.6% of MY complete (43/52 weeks)
o Total new sales (6/22/2017) for “current” MY 2016/17 = 2.181 bb i.e., 106.4% of 2.050 bb USDA projn with 80.8% of MY complete (42/52 weeks)
World & U.S. Soybean Supply‐Demand Fundamentals
Mktg Yr World % S/U World Crop U.S. % S/U U.S. $/bu U.S. Exports
2007/08 22.9% S/U 219.0 mmt 6.7% S/U $10.10 /bu 1.159 bln bu
2008/09 19.3% S/U 212.0 mmt 4.5% S/U $ 9.97 /bu 1.279 bln bu
2009/10 25.2% S/U 260.5 mmt 4.5% S/U $ 9.59 /bu 1.499 bln bu
2010/11 27.7% S/U 264.3 mmt 6.6% S/U $11.30 /bu 1.505 bln bu
2011/12 20.3% S/U 240.6 mmt 5.4% S/U $12.50 /bu 1.365 bln bu
2012/13 21.0% S/U 268.6 mmt 4.5% S/U $14.40 /bu 1.328 bln bu
2013/14 22.4% S/U 282.5 mmt 2.7% S/U $13.00 /bu 1.638 bln bu
2014/15 25.7% S/U 319.6 mmt 4.9% S/U $10.10 /bu 1.842 bln bu
2015/16USDA 24.5% S/U 312.9 mmt 5.0% S/U $ 8.95 /bu 1.936 bln bu
2016/17USDA 28.1% S/U 351.3 mmt 11.0% S/U $ 9.55 /bu 2.050 bln bu
2017/18USDA 26.8% S/U 344.7 mmt 11.7% S/U $ 9.30 /bu 2.150 bln bu
SEPT 2017 Soybeans $9.85 ¾ on Th., July 6, 2017
$9.86
$8.44 ¼ $7.76 ¼