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KPMG‘s Media Institute:Sovereign Wealth Funds
1 October 2008
KPMG’s Media Institute
1This document is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED. © 2008 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights
reserved.
Speakers and hosts
Stuart Robertson, Head of Markets, Member of the Executive Committee KPMG Switzerland
Patrik Kerler, Partner, Head of Corporate Finance, KPMG Switzerland
Prof. Dr. Norbert Walter, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Group
Vijay Arumbakkam, Partner, KPMG United Arab Emirates
2
2This document is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED. © 2008 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights
reserved.
Agenda
9.30 IntroductionStuart Robertson, KPMG Switzerland
9.45 Sovereign Wealth Funds: Structures, Funding, Issues, OutlookPatrik Kerler, KPMG Switzerland
10.15 Economic significance of Sovereign Wealth FundsProf. Dr. Norbert Walter, Deutsche Bank Group
11.00 Coffee Break
11.15 Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Middle EastVijay Arumbakkam, KPMG UAE
12.00 Lunch buffet
Sovereign Wealth FundsStructures, Funding, Issues, Outlook
Patrik Kerler, Head Corporate Finance
3
4This document is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED. © 2008 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights
reserved.
History
• First SWF (Kuwait) established in the 1950-ies• Massive growth in numbers and assets over the last 10 – 15 years • Volumes up from USD 500 bn in the early 90ies to over USD 2 trillion as of today• Assets under Management (AuM) estimated to reach USD 8 trillion in 2011 and
USD 12 trillion by 2015
• Past track record: Conservative, low risk, long term, passive investments (government bonds and bank deposits)
• Major changes under way: Alignment of business model in analogy to PE houses; diversified portfolios/direct investments; intensive recruitment of specialists from PE houses, hedge funds, banks and other institutional investors
5This document is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED. © 2008 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights
reserved.
Concerns of Western market economies
• What is a SWF and who is behind it?• Are SWFs a threat to Western economies or even Western civilization?• Will SWFs turn into active investors and possibly pursue political goals?• Will the current economic crisis in the Western world open the flood gates for
SWFs?• What roles are SWFs playing in the current crisis?• Are SWFs the white knights of the free market financial services system?
or
• are SWFs the logical consequence of a shift in global economic power?
4
6This document is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED. © 2008 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights
reserved.
Major Sovereign Wealth Funds I/II
Commodity-basedSWFs
Non-commoditybased SWFs
• Norway: Government Pension Fund – Global (GPFG) $ 395
• Russia: National Welfare Fund $ 160
• Kuwait: Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) $ 250
• Saudi Arabia: SAMA Foreign Holdings $ 300
• UAE: Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) $ 875Others approx. $ 50
• Qatar: Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) $ 60
• Algeria: Revenue Regulation Fund $ 50
• Libya: Libyan Arab Foreign Investment Co. $ 50
Commodity based SWFs
(est. AuM inUSDbn)
•China/Hong Kong: SAFE Investment Company$ 310China Investment Corporation (CIC) $ 200Hong Kong MonetaryAuthority $ 170National Social Security Fund $ 70
•Singapore:Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC)$ 330Temasek Holdings $ 160
•Australia:Australia Government Future Fund (AGFF) $ 60
Non-commodity based SWFs
(est. AuM in USDbn)
Quellen: SWF Institute, IMF, OECD, Schweiz. Bankiervereinigung
7This document is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED. © 2008 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights
reserved.
Major Sovereign Wealth Funds II/II
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
AlgeriaLibyaQatar
AustraliaSingapore Tamasek
RussiaChina (CIC)
Kuwait (KIA)Saudi Arabia (SAMA)
China (SAFE)Singapore GIC
NorwayUAE
AuM USD bn
5
8This document is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED. © 2008 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights
reserved.
Growth dynamics
52% 40% 39% 12%
48%
60%
61%
88%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010 2015
Commodity
Non-commodity
10,000
5,000
3,300
AuM in USDbn
Source: IFSL estimates
9This document is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED. © 2008 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights
reserved.
SWF investments since 2003
Source. Zawya Private Equity Monitor
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 8 mo2008
051015202530354045
Investment SizeNumber of Investments
6
10This document is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED. © 2008 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights
reserved.
SWF investment flows by industries
Source. Zawya Private Equity Monitor
11This document is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED. © 2008 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights
reserved.
SWF investment flows by geography
Source. Zawya Private Equity Monitor
7
12This document is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED. © 2008 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights
reserved.
Relative size/power of SWFs
0.8
1.9
3.3
19.1
27.3
28.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Private Equity
Hedge Funds
SWFs
Insurance Funds
M utual Funds
Pension Funds
$ trillionSource: IFSL estimates
13This document is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED. © 2008 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights
reserved.
Financial markets meltdown – What willSWFs do?
8
14This document is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED. © 2008 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights
reserved.
Current status
• SWFs are controlling substantial funds with significant growth in numbers and AuMs• Major impact from current economic crisis on SWFs expected• SWFs are currently aligning their structures and strategies to market developments
- Recruitment: Vying for highly educated professionals from hedge funds, PE houses and other financial services institutions
- Structures: Emulating PE/Hedge Fund business models; partly dependenton form of nation government
- Rules & regulations: Adaptation as required to rules and regulations oftarget economies
• Current crisis is as much of a challenge to SWFs as it is for other market participants – SWFs will act quickly to minimize losses and maximize returns
15This document is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED. © 2008 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights
reserved.
Governance, transparency, regulatory issues
Norwegian Pension Fund: best practice example in terms of governance, transparencyand ethicsInternational regulatory authorities• IMF: Generally Accepted Principles and Practices for Sovereign Wealth Funds (GAPP), also
referred to as „Santiago Principles“ to be presented at IMF Meeting, October 2008• OECD: Declaration on „Sovereign Wealth Funds and Recipient Country Policies“ adopted by
OECD countries’ ministers in June 2008• EU Commission: Calls for increased transparency, but is not planning any regulatory
measuresNational tendencies• Protectionist approach: USA, Germany, France, Japan, Canada, China, Russia• Liberal approach: Switzerland, Netherlands, Sweden, Austria, UKSwitzerland• SECO: Considers open markets as a must for Swiss economy and any protectionist
tendencies as potentially dangerous
9
16This document is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED. © 2008 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights
reserved.
Outlook
• SWFs will accumulate increasing funds which need to be invested• SWFs‘ relevance as global market players will increase substantially• Depending on home-base and funding mode, SWFs are expected to develop
differently:- Chinese- Asia Pacific- Middle East- Europe/North America
• Increasing interdependencies between markets, economies and market participants will further strengthen SWFs position as global players
Conclusion: They are here to stay, and reflect a shift in global economic power
17This document is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED. © 2008 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights
reserved.
Critical issues
• The sheer power of SWFs could lead to political abuse:- non free-market economies/plan economies- conflict of interest between economics and politics
• Certain SWFs could be moving from passive to active investor roles
• As a reaction, increased protectionism could develop
• Various potential implications of the current economic situation on SWFs role
1
Norbert WalterChief EconomistDeutsche Bank Group
Sovereign wealth funds –risks and opportunities for global financial markets
KPMG’s Media Institute
01. October 2008
Norbert Walter | Oct 01, 2008 | Page 2
Overview of SWF industry11
Implications of SWF growth and policy issues22
Agenda
2
Norbert Walter | Oct 01, 2008 | Page 3
SWFs – a USD 3.5 trillion business
Abu DhabiADIA
USD 900bnSingapore
GIC/TemasekUSD 461bn
NorwayNBIM
USD 401bn
Saudi ArabiaVarious
USD 360bn
KuwaitKIA
USD 264bn
ChinaCIC
USD 200bn
Hong KongHKMA-IP
USD 152bn
RussiaSFRF
USD 163bn
11
= No SWF
= Countries operating SWFs – darker colours indicating higher volumes of assets
Note: Global distribution of sovereign wealth fund assets: Assets under management by absolute amounts and country of domicile. Selected SWFs displayed. Total number of SWFs: 52. AuM as on Sep 03, 2008 estimated: USD 3.5tr.
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
Hedge funds
SWF
Reserves ex gold
Insurance companies
Pension funds
Public debt securities
Investment funds
HNWI assets
Private debt securities
World GDP
Stock market capitalisation
Bank assets
2005/20062006/2007
Indicators for size of markets worldwide, USD tr, latest available figures for 2006/2007, compared with previous year
Norbert Walter | Oct 01, 2008 | Page 4
Rationale of SWFs – sound economic objectives
Exhaustibility of natural resourcesTransitory nature of income streamsVolatility of commodity markets
Intertemporal stabilisationInternational diversificationRisk-return optimisation
Stylised facts
SWF objectives
11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
98 00 02 04 06Brent Oil Gold US Treasuries S&P 100
Asset volatility in comparisonPrice volatilities measured by standard deviations from 90-day moving averages in %
3
Norbert Walter | Oct 01, 2008 | Page 5
Distinctive features: state-ownership, broad range of investment strategies, un-regulated operations
Investment fundSWFPrivate
EquityHedge Fund
Pension fundInsuranceInvestor
Management intervention1)
Origin of assets1)
Retail investorsStateHNWIInstitutional
- Equity - Equity- Bonds- Foreign
exchange- Derivatives- others
PassiveActive/passiveActive Active/passive PassivePassive
- Mergers- Acquisitions- Equity - Bonds- Foreign
exchange- HF, PE- Derivatives- others
- Equity - Bonds- Foreign
exchange- Derivatives- others
- Equity - Bonds- Foreign
exchange- Derivatives- others
- Equity - Bonds- Foreign
exchange- Derivatives- others
Investment universe1)
Specific regulation1) CoB/IP/RR2)―― ― CoB/IP/RR2)CoB/IP/RR2)
1) Indicative. In selected cases deviations possible.2) CoB = Conduct of Business, IP = Investor Protection, RR = Reporting Requirements
11
Norbert Walter | Oct 01, 2008 | Page 6
Investment trends: Europe, US, Asia as prime targets …
Since 1995, worldwide total of reported and completed transactions with SWF involvement USD 178bn in 328 transactions
Europe, America and Asia have been preferred targets
- Europe 32%- America 37%- Asia 28%
11
Asia28%
Afrika0%
Australia1%
Middle East2%
EU24%
Other Europe
8%
North America
37%
South America
0%
SWF investment by target region
Investments with SWF participation by origin of recipient companies, reported and completed transactions, 1995-2008YTD, % of total volume
4
Norbert Walter | Oct 01, 2008 | Page 7
… owing to investments in wake of financial crisis …
11
0 60,000 120,000
Agriculture
Defence
Other
Industry
Infrastructure
Technology
Services
Energy
Real estate
Finance
EU
US
Asia
Others
SWF investments by sector
SWF investments by sector of investment target and region, reported and completed transactions, 1995-2008, in USD bn
SWF investments by sector
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
07 08
DB MLMS CGBA CSUBS
Investment performanceShare prices of major banks with SWF investment, 01 Jan 07=100
Note: DB=Deutsche Bank, ML=Merrill Lynch, MS=Morgan Stanley, CG=Citigroup, BA=Barclays, CS=Credit Suisse, UBS
Norbert Walter | Oct 01, 2008 | Page 8
… making SWFs – temporarily – the saviours of Wall Street and beyond
11
Bank SWF % USD bn Date Bank SWF % USD bn Date
UBS CH GIC 9.0 9.7 Dec-07 Merrill Lynch
US Temasek 10.3 3.4 Jul-08
Citigroup US ADIA 4.9 7.5 Nov-07 Barclays Bank
GB CDB 3.1 3.3 Jul-07
Citigroup US GIC 4.5 6.9 Jan-08 Bank of China
CN Temasek 10.0 3.1 Aug-05
Merrill Lynch US Temasek 9.9 5.0 Dec-07 Blackstone Group
US CIC 9.9 3.0 May-07
Morgan Stanley
US CIC 9.9 5.0 Dec-07 LSE GB QIA 24.0 2.2 Sep-07
Standard Chartered
GB Temasek 18.0 4.5 Mar-06 Barclays Bank
GB Temasek 2.1 2.0 Jul-07
Barclays Bank GB QIA 8.9 3.5 Jun-08 Merrill Lynch
US KIC 3.3 2.0 Jan-08
Merrill Lynch US KIA 5.7 3.4 Jan-08 LSE GB DIFX 28.0 1.9 Sep-07
UBS CH NN 1.6 1.8 Dec-07
5
Norbert Walter | Oct 01, 2008 | Page 9
EU: UK, Germany, France get major share of commitments
11
0.00.00.20.30.30.30.61.01.11.32.0
3.85.1
26.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
BE
PT
FI
M T
IT
AT
GR
SE
ES
NL
DK
FR
DE
UK
Investments in EU member states
Investments with SWF participation in EU by origin of recipient companies, reported and completed transactions, 1995-2008YTD, USD bn
0.3
0.8
4.6
5.0
5.9
6.3
26.9
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Technology
Defence
Real estate
Commodities
Industry
Services
Finance
EU: SWF investments by sector
Investments with SWF participation in EU by sectors of recipient companies, reported and completed transactions, 1995-2008YTD
Norbert Walter | Oct 01, 2008 | Page 10
Asia: About to re-emerge as investment location
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
08YTD07060595-04
EU USAsia OtherR ih 5 R ih 6
SWF investments over time
Investments with SWF participation by time period, reported and completed transactions, in USD bn
0.10.10.4
2.32.6
3.14.24.4
5.16.06.26.2
10.2
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
VN
PH
PK
IN
KR
JP
ID
TH
TW
SG
MY
HK SAR
CN
SWF investments in Asia
Investments w ith SWF participation in Asia by origin of recipient companies, reported and completed transactions, 1995-2008YTD, in USD bn
6
Norbert Walter | Oct 01, 2008 | Page 11
Increasing income and reserves …
11
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
01 02 03 04 05 06 07
OthersMiddle EastLatin AmericaIndustrialised countriesAsia
Official reserves
Official reserves held by central banks, USD bn, and % of total USD 6.4tr at end-07
23%
2%6%
23%
46%
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
US OthersOPEC, RU CNJP DE6 Tigers
USD bnCurrent account balances
Norbert Walter | Oct 01, 2008 | Page 12
… to sustain continued SWF asset growth
11
Potential fund inflow to global equity and debt markets from SWFs over 5Y and 10Y horizon based on above growth scenarios and 40% equity and 60% debt portfolio distributions by SWFs, in USD tr.
0
10
20
30
40
50
06 11 16
42
Equity
010203040506070
06 11 16
60
Fixed income+ 1.5tr + 4.6tr
+ 1.0tr + 3.1tr
Potential fund inflow to global equity and debt markets from SWFs over 5Y and 10Y horizon based on above growth scenarios and 40% equity and 60% debt portfolio distributions by SWFs, in USD tr.
0
10
20
30
40
50
06 11 16
42
Equity
010203040506070
06 11 16
60
Fixed income+ 1.5tr+ 1.5tr + 4.6tr+ 4.6tr
+ 1.0tr+ 1.0tr + 3.1tr+ 3.1tr
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 17 18 19 20
SWF growth scenarios
Expected growth of SWF AuM, based on past 10Y growth of official reserves assets, USD tr
Actual f iguresProjected volume of AuMCorridor of potential alternative paths of AuM grow th
7
Norbert Walter | Oct 01, 2008 | Page 13
Overview of SWF industry
22 Implications of SWF growth and policy issues
11
Agenda
Norbert Walter | Oct 01, 2008 | Page 14
Policy implications
SWFs systemically relevant─ Herding behaviour─ Contagion effects─ In extremis, destabilisation of market
segments, regions, global financial industry
Risks aggravated by intransparency
22
SWFs as state entities not in line with free market economy─ Funds not refinanced at market
conditions─ Funds not originated from market
activity
Concerns regarding corporate control
Financial market stability State funding and control
► Ensure greater transparency of SWFs
► Secure appropriate internal SWF governance
► Improve internal governance of SWFs
► Establish reasonable investment rules in recipient countries (security-related issues only)
8
Norbert Walter | Oct 01, 2008 | Page 15
Principles for optimal policies
Open markets
Symmetry in open market access
Equal treatment of foreign investors
Proportionality of policy measures
Transparency of policy rules
Minimal political intervention
International cooperation and standards (OECD)
22
SWF code of conductInvestment policy
Transparency― Objectives― Portfolio size and structure― Resources― Institutional framework― External audit
Governance― Commercial objectives― Independence from government― Good internal governance ― Robust risk management― Fair competition with private sector
International cooperation and standards (IMF)
Norbert Walter | Oct 01, 2008 | Page 16
Welcome major policy initiatives
22
SWF code of conductInvestment policy
― Agreement on Principles for SWF Investment with Singapore and Abu Dhabi, Mar 20, 2008
― FINSA reform of CFIUS, Jul 2007
― Commission Communication on a Common European Approach to Sovereign Wealth Funds, Feb 27,2008
― OECD investment standards to be issued by mid-2009
― Proposed amendment to Foreign Trade Act, to be adopted by end-08
― “CFIUS light”
― Tightening of investment screening process, Feb 17, 2008
― Tightening of Foreign Investment Law, Apr 2, 2008
― 42 restricted sectors
― International Working Group of SWFs― Generally Agreed Principles and
Practices (GAPP) at 08 IMF Meeting
― Agreement on Principles for SWF Investment with Singapore and Abu Dhabi, Mar 20, 2008
― Commission Communication on a Common European Approach to Sovereign Wealth Funds, Feb 27,2008
― Singapore and Abu Dhabi Agreement with US on Principles for SWF Investment, Mar 20, 2008
9
Norbert Walter | Oct 01, 2008 | Page 17
© Copyright 2008. Deutsche Bank AG, DB Research, D-60262 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. All rights reserved. When quoting please cite “Deutsche Bank Research”.
The above information does not constitute the provision of investment, legal or tax advice. Any views expressed reflect the current views of the author, which do not necessarily correspond to the opinions of Deutsche Bank AG or its affiliates. Opinions expressed may change without notice. Opinions expressed may differ from views set out in other documents, including research, published by Deutsche Bank. The above information is provided for informational purposes only and without any obligation, whether contractual or otherwise. No warranty or representation is made as to the correctness, completeness and accuracy of the information given or the assessments made. In Germany this information is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, authorised by Bundesanstalt fürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. In the United Kingdom this information is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG London, a member of the London Stock Exchange regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UK. This information is distributed in Hong Kong by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch, in Korea by Deutsche Securities Korea Co. and in Singapore by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch. In Japan this information is approved and/or distributed by Deutsche SecuritiesLimited, Tokyo Branch. In Australia, retail clients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to any financial product referred to in this report and consider the PDS before making any decision about whether to acquire the product.
1
KPMG in the UAE
Vijay ArumbakkamPartner
Sovereign Wealth Funds – An UAE PerspectiveZurich – 1 October 2008
2© 2008 KPMG, KPMG LLP and KPMG Lower Gulf Ltd, member firms of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International.
• UAE – Explained
• The “Ai” Factor
• SWF’s Vs SWE’s ????
• Good Intent But Opaque….
• Conclusion
Content
2
3© 2008 KPMG, KPMG LLP and KPMG Lower Gulf Ltd, member firms of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International.
Abu Dhabi
DubaiFujairah
Ras al KhaimahUmm Al Quwain
Ajman
Sharjah
Fujairah
Abu Dhabi
Abu Dhabi
Ajman
Fujairah
Sharjah
Dubai
Ras Al Khaimah
Umm Al Quwain
The United Arab Emirates
4© 2008 KPMG, KPMG LLP and KPMG Lower Gulf Ltd, member firms of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International.
Financial Services
Tourism
Retail
Transportation
Real Estate & Construction
DubaiConstruction
Tourism
Real Estate
Oil & Gas
Abu Dhabi
Manufacturing
Construction
Real Estate
Tourism
Ras Al Khaimah
UAE- Key Drivers For Economic Growth
3
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UAE Forecast – Key Indicators
4.855.035.335.645.735.03Exchange rate Dh:€ (av)
3.673.673.673.673.673.67Exchange rate Dh:US$ (av)
84.24.911.719.717.4Current-account balance (% of GDP)
12.31315.715.920.515.2Budget balance (% of GDP)
5.569131614Consumer price inflation (av; %)
6.16.67.27.68.47.5Real GDP growth (%)
201220112010200920082007Key indicators
Source: Economic Intelligence Unit
6© 2008 KPMG, KPMG LLP and KPMG Lower Gulf Ltd, member firms of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International.
ai ai
ai
Shangh Mumb
Dub
Global Shift in Financial Capital –” Ai Factor”
4
7© 2008 KPMG, KPMG LLP and KPMG Lower Gulf Ltd, member firms of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International.
Largest Sovereign Wealth Funds
UAE
NorwaySingapore
GCC
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
China
Singapore -(Tamasek Holdings)
Libya
Algeria
Qatar
US (Alaska)
Estimated Assets (US $ millions)
Co
un
try
Source: Morgan Stanley Sept 2007
8© 2008 KPMG, KPMG LLP and KPMG Lower Gulf Ltd, member firms of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International.
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA)
Abu Dhabi Investment Company (ADIC)
Mubadala Development Company
SWF’s
International Petroleum Investment CompanyAbu Dhabi National Energy Company
Dubai GroupAmlak Finance
Emaar Dubai World
DP WorldIstithmarLimitlessNakheel
Dubai International CapitalRAK Investment Authority
SWE’S
SWF’s Vs SWE’s
5
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TAQA – Abu Dhabi National Energy Company
International Petroleum Investment Company
Mubadala Development Company
Abu Dhabi Investment Company
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
AUH
9.0
6.5
10.0
c. 100.0
c. 700.0 -750.0
Estimated Asset size in $US bn.
Dubai International Capital (DIC) (Subsidiary of Dubai Holdings)
Tatweer
Istithmar (subsidiary of Dubai World/ICD)
Dubai World
Dubai Group (Subsidiary of Dubai Holdings) (incl. Dubai Capital, Dubai Financial, Noor Investment, Dubai investment, Dubai Islamic)
Dubai
12.0
n/a
2.6
3.2
n/a
Estimated Asset size in $US bn.
RAK Investment Authority
Ras Al Khaimah
1.2
Estimated Asset size in $US bn.
Estimated Assets
10© 2008 KPMG, KPMG LLP and KPMG Lower Gulf Ltd, member firms of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks of KPMG International.
SubprimeBailout4.90%FinancialsUnited StatesCitigroup
ADIC (SWE)5.10%TechnologyUnited StatesZiopharm Oncology Inc
7.60%IndustrialsEgyptSuez Cement Company
8.30%FinancialsEgyptEgyptian Financial Group Hermes Holding Company
ADIC (SWE)9.80%FinancialsBermudaMacquarie International Infrastructure Fund Ltd
ADIC (SWE)16.00%Trust CompanyUnited KingdomEastern European Trust Plc
Comments% OwnershipIndustryCountryCompany
9%Private Equity FundUnited StatesApollo Management LP
~20%Private Equity FundUnited StatesAres Management LLC
% OwnershipTypeCountryCompany
Major Direct Foreign Investments (Public)
Major Direct Foreign Investments (Private)
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority - Key Investments
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Mubadala - Key Investments
5.00%ItalyFerrari
8.10%TechnologyUnited StatesAdvanced Micro Devices
8.33%IndustrialsGuineaGuinea Alumina Corporation
22.80%Consumer GoodsNetherlandsSpyker Cars
% OwnershipIndustryCountryCompany
Major Direct Foreign Investments (Public)
7.50%Private Equity FundUnited StatesCarlyle Group
25%Joint VentureNetherlandsLeasePlan Corporation
35%Private StockItalyPiaggio Aero Industries
40%Private StockSwitzerlandSR Technics
Real Estate51%Joint VentureUnited StatesJohn Buck International
100%BuyoutSingaporePearl Energy Ltd.
Comments% OwnershipTypeCountryCompany
Major Direct Foreign Investments (Private)
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Investment Corporation of Dubai - Key Investments
Dubai International Capital Investment(Subsidiary)~2%AutoGermanyDaimlerChrysler AG
Dubai International Capital Investment(Subsidiary)2.87%FinancialsIndiaICICI Bank Limited
Dubai International Capital Investment(Subsidiary)3.12%DefenseNetherlandsEADS N.V.
Dubai World(Subsidiary)8.87%Consumer ServicesUnited StatesMGM Mirage
Istithmar (Subsidiary)8.80%IndustrialsSingaporeHyflux Ltd
Dubai Group --> Dubai Holding (Subsidiary)9.07%FinancialsGreece
Marfin Investment Group Holdings SA
Dubai Holding (Subsidiary)9.20%Consumer ServicesUnited StatesOrient Express Hotels Ltd
Dubai Group --> Dubai Holding (Subsidiary)10.89%ChinaChina Enersave Ltd
Borse Dubai (Subsidiary)20.60%FinancialsUnited KingdomLondon Stock Exchange Group
Borse Dubai (Subsidiary)43.60%FinancialsUnited StatesNasdaq OMX Group Inc
Dubai Holding (Subsidiary)51.40%FinancialsUnited StatesOch Ziff Capital ManagementGroup LLC
Dubai World (Subsidiary)98.40%IndustrialsSingaporeLabroy Marine
Comments% OwnershipIndustryCountryCompany
Major Direct Foreign Investments (Public)
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Dubai World37.88%InvestmentChinaBeng Kuang Marine Ltd
Dubai Investment Group40%%PrivateIndiaChiranjjeevi Wind Energy Ltd
Istithmar World Capital - Dubai World40%%Private
United KingdomESPA International
Istithmar (Subsidiary)100%SubsidiaryUnited KingdomInchcape Shipping Services
Istithmar (Subsidiary)100%SubsidiaryUnited StatesLoehmann's Holding Inc
Istithmar (Subsidiary)100%SubsidiaryUnited StatesBarneys New York
Dubai International Capital (Subsidiary)100%SubsidiaryGermanyMauser AG
Dubai International Capital (Subsidiary)100%Subsidiary
United KingdomTravelodge UK
Comments% OwnershipTypeCountryCompany
Major Direct Foreign Investments (Private)
Investment Corporation of Dubai - Key Investments
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“ Malaysian infrastructure firm UBGBerhad and Mubadala Development Company, the Abu Dhabi Government investment Agency, have agreed to form a 50-50 Joint Venture to develop petroleum projects in the Southeast Asian country”
LIMITLESS has taken over a Dh. 6.2 bn. venture in the Indonesian Capital of Jakarta. This is the latest addition to its portfolio of 11 developments overseas
“Abu Dhabi’s telecom major Etisalat acquired 45% stake in Dubai Swan Telecom, a new Indian telecom venture”
“ Meras Holding, an investment and Real Estate company was launched in Dubai to create integrated master-planned communities by focusing on comprehensive urban planning
Taqa Energy B.V., has also signed a farm-in agreement with Cirrus Energy Corporation with respect to three licences and one unit area in the Dutch North Sea.
.. The National
..The National
.. Gulf news
..: Gulf news
..Gulf news
Recent Announcements – 28 September 2008
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“Syndication of a $6bn multi-currency loan split between three- and five-year tranches by Investment Corporation of Dubai (ICD), the investment arm of the government of Dubai, is expected to begin by late August.
…MEED Aug 08 “Ras Al Khaimah Investment Authority (Rakia), the government agency responsible for the
economic development of the emirate, will launch its first ever sukuk issue tomorrow of $500 million” …. Gulf News Nov. 07
“Development company Limitless plans to raise $1.2bn through a syndicated loan in the next few months and began a roadshowmarketing the deal to investors”…MEED Jan 08
Debt…
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Good Intent But Opaque…..Common Concerns
• What are they going to do with the money?
• Investment goals and behavior?
• Will they be used as a foreign policy tool?
• Are they politically motivated?
• Opportunistic?
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Conclusion
• UAE SWF’s/SWE’s are here to stay
• The world needs them given the current financial crisis/credit crunch
• UAE SWF’s are taking steps through the IWG –International Working Group of Sovereign Wealth Funds to arrive at guidelines on transparency
• They understand their responsibility and are also aware of the political/cultural sensitivities around their investments
• Their primary objective is to earn a decent return on their investments
• Recipient countries/companies must understand that too much transparency will make SWF’s/SWE’s uncompetitive
18© (year) KPMG (member firm name if applicable), the (jurisdiction) member firm of KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved. Printed in (country).(Insert document code)
PresenterPresenter’’s contact s contact detailsdetailsVijay ArumbakkamVijay ArumbakkamPartnerPartnerKPMG in the UAEKPMG in the UAEwww.aewww.ae--kpmg.comkpmg.com