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Korea & US

S.-North Korea relations developed primarily during the Korean War, but in recent years have been largelydefined by the United States' suspicions regarding North Korea's nuclear programs, and North Korea'sperception of an imminent US attack.

Background

Although hostility between the two countries remains largely a product of Cold War politics, there wereearlier conflicts and animosity between the US and Korea. In the mid-19th century Korea closed itsborders to Western trade, much as North Korea has today. In the General Sherman Incident, Koreanforces attacked a US gunboat sent to negotiate a trade treaty and killed its crew, after it defiedinstructions from Korean officials. A US retribution attack, the Sinmiyangyo, followed.Korea and the US ultimately established trade relations in 1882. Relations soured again when the USnegotiated peace in the Russo-Japanese War. Japan persuaded the US to accept Korea as part of Japan'ssphere of influence, and the US did not protest when Japan annexed Korea five years later. Koreannationalists petitioned the US to support their cause at the Versailles Treaty conference under WoodrowWilson's principle of national self-determination, without success.The US divided Korea after World War II along the 38th parallel, intending it as a temporary measure.However, the breakdown of relations between the US and USSR prevented a reunification. The NorthKorean government came to see the US as an imperalist successor to Japan, a view it still holds today. TUnited States maintains economic sanctions against the DPRK under the Trading with the Enemy Act.Denuclearization of the Korean PeninsulaNorth Korea joined the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear weapons state in 1985,and North and South Korean talks begun in 1990 resulted in a 1992 Denuclearization Statement. Howevelack of progress in developing and implementing an agreement with the International Atomic EnergyAgency (IAEA) for the inspection of the North's nuclear facilities led to North Korea's March 1993announcement of its withdrawal from the NPT. A UN Security Council resolution in May 1993 urged NorthKorea to cooperate with the IAEA and to implement the 1992 North-South Denuclearization Statement. Ialso urged all member states to encourage North Korea to respond positively to this resolution and tofacilitate a solution of the nuclear issue.U.S.-North Korea talks beginning in June 1993 led to the U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework in October1994:

• North Korea agreed to freeze its existing plutonium enrichment program, to be monitored by the IAEA;• Both sides agreed to cooperate to replace North Korea's graphite-moderated reactors with light waterreactor (LWR) power plants, to be financed and supplied by an international consortium (later identified athe Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization or KEDO);• The United States and North Korea agreed to work together to store safely the spent fuel from the fivemegawatt reactor and dispose of it in a safe manner that does not involve reprocessing in North Korea;• The two sides agreed to move toward full normalization of political and economic relations;• Both sides agreed to work together for peace and security on a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula; and• Both sides agreed to work together to strengthen the international nuclear non-proliferation regime.In accordance with the terms of the Agreed Framework, North Korea decided to freeze its nuclear prograand cooperate with United States and IAEA verification efforts, and in January 1995 the U.S. easedeconomic sanctions against North Korea. North Korea agreed to accept the decisions of KEDO, thefinancier and supplier of the LWRs, with respect to provision of the reactors. KEDO subsequently identifie

Sinpo as the LWR project site and held a groundbreaking ceremony in August 1997. In December 1999,KEDO and the (South) Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) signed the Turnkey Contract (TKC),permitting fullscale construction of the LWRs.In January 1995, as called for in the Agreed Framework, the United States and North Korea negotiated amethod to store safely the spent fuel from the five-megawatt reactor. According to this method, U.S. andNorth Korean operators would work together to can the spent fuel and store the canisters in the spent fupond. Actual canning began in 1995. In April 2000, canning of all accessible spent fuel rods and rodfragments was declared complete.In 1998, the United States identified an underground site in Kumchang-ni, which it suspected of being

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nuclear-related. In March 1999, North Korea agreed to grant the U.S. "satisfactory access" to the site. InOctober 2000, during Special Envoy Jo Myong Rok's visit to Washington, and after two visits to the site bteams of U.S. experts, the U.S. announced in a Joint Communiqué with North Korea that U.S. concernsabout the site had been resolved.As called for in Dr. William Perry's official review of U.S. policy toward North Korea, the United States andNorth Korea launched new negotiations in May 2000 called the Agreed Framework Implementation Talks.North Korea policy under George W. BushFollowing the inauguration of President George W. Bush in January 2001, the new Administration began areview of North Korea policy. At the conclusion of that review, the Administration announced on June 6,2001, that it had decided to pursue continued dialogue with North Korea on the full range of issues of concern to the Administration, including North Korea's conventional force posture, missile developmentand export programs, human rights practices, and humanitarian issues. In 2002, the Administration alsobecame aware that North Korea was developing a uranium enrichment program for nuclear weaponspurposes. U.S.-D.P.R.K. tensions mounted, when Bush categorized North Korea as part of the "Axis of Eviin his 2002 State of the Union address.When U.S.-D.P.R.K. direct dialogue resumed in October 2002, this uranium- enrichment program was higon the U.S. agenda. North Korean officials acknowledged to a U.S. delegation, headed by AssistantSecretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs James A. Kelly, the existence of the uraniumenrichment program. Such a program violated North Korea's obligations under the NPT and itscommitments in the 1992 North-South Denuclearization Declaration and the 1994 Agreed Framework. Th

U.S. side stated that North Korea would have to terminate the program before any further progress couldbe made in U.S.-D.P.R.K. relations. The U.S. side also made clear that if this program were verifiablyeliminated, the U.S. would be prepared to work with North Korea on the development of a fundamentallynew relationship. In November 2002, the members of KEDO agreed to suspend heavy fuel oil shipments North Korea pending a resolution of the nuclear dispute.In December 2002, Spanish troops boarded and detained a shipment of Scud missiles from North Koreadestined for Yemen, at the United States' request. After two days, the United States released the ship tocontinue its shipment to Yemen. This further strained the relationship between the US and North Korea,with North Korea characterizing the boarding an "act of piracy".In late 2002 and early 2003, North Korea terminated the freeze on its existing plutonium-based nuclearfacilities, expelled IAEA inspectors and removed seals and monitoring equipment, quit the NPT, andresumed reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel to extract plutonium for weapons purposes. North Koreasubsequently announced that it was taking these steps to provide itself with a deterrent force in the face

of U.S. threats and the U.S.' "hostile policy". Beginning in mid-2003, the North repeatedly claimed to havcompleted reprocessing of the spent fuel rods previously frozen at Yongbyon and later publicly said thatthe resulting fissile material would be used to bolster its "nuclear deterrent force". There is no independeconfirmation of North Korea's claims.President Bush has stated that the United States has no plans at this time to invade North Korea now or the forseeable future. He also stated that the United States intends to make every effort to achieve apeaceful end to North Korea's nuclear program in cooperation with North Korea's neighbors, who have alexpressed concern over the threat to regional stability and security they believe it poses. The BushAdministration's stated goal is the complete, verifiable, and irreversible elimination of North Korea'snuclear weapons program. North Korea's neighbors have joined the United States in supporting a nuclearweapons-free Korean Peninsula.In the last months of 2005, relations between the countries have been further strained by US allegations

of North Korean counterfeiting of American dollars. The US alleges that North Korea produces $15 millionworth of 'supernotes' every year, and has induced banks in Macau and elsewhere to end business withNorth Korea.Six-party talks: Six-party talksIn early 2003 multilateral talks were proposed to be held among the six most relevant parties aimed atreaching a settlement through diplomatic means. North Korea initially opposed such a process,maintaining that the nuclear dispute was purely a bilateral matter between themselves and the UnitedStates. However, under pressure from its neighbors and with the active involvement of the People's

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Republic of China, North Korea agreed to preliminary three-party talks with China and the United States Beijing in April 2003.After this meeting, North Korea then agreed to six-party talks, between the United States, North Korea,South Korea, China, Japan and Russia. The first round of talks was held in August 2003, with subsequentrounds being held at regular intervals. However, since the last round (5th round, 1st phase) was held inNovember 2005, North Korea has refused to return to the talks. This was in retaliation for the US freezinoffshore North Korean bank accounts in Macau.In early 2005, US government told its East Asia allies that Pyongyang had exported nuclear material toLibya. This backfired when the Asia allies discovered that US government had concealed involvement of Pakistan; a key U.S. ally was the weapon's middle man. In March 2005, Condoleezza Rice had to travel tEast Asia in an effort to repair the damage.2006 nuclear testU.S. intelligence agencies have been unable to confirm that a test has occurred, but are presently lookinginto the situation. Tony Snow, President George W. Bush’s White House Press Secretary, said that theUnited States would now go to the United Nations to determine “what our next steps should be inresponse to this very serious step.”President Bush stated in a televised speech Monday morning, that suca claim of a test is a "provocative act" and U.S condemns such acts. President Bush stated that the UniteStates is "committed to diplomacy" but will "continue to protect [America] and [America's] interests."

Press Say About This.

WASHINGTON North Korea said Monday that it had set off its first nuclear test, becoming the eighthcountry in history, and arguably the most unstable and most dangerous, to proclaim that it has joined thclub of nuclear weapons states.

The test came just two days after the country was warned by the United Nations Security Council that thaction could lead to severe consequences.

American officials cautioned that they had not yet received any confirmation that the test had occurred.The United States Geological Survey said it had detected a tremor of 4.2 magnitude on the KoreanPeninsula.

China called the test a "flagrant and brazen" violation of international opinion and said it "firmly opposes"North Korea's conduct.

Senior Bush administration officials said that they had little reason to doubt the announcement, andwarned that the test would usher in a new era of confrontation with the isolated and unpredictable countrun by President Kim Jong-il.

Early Monday morning, even before the test was confirmed, Bush administration officials were holdingconference calls to discuss ways to further cut off a country that is already subject to sanctions, and hardliners said the moment had arrived for neighboring countries, especially China and Russia, to cut off thetrade and oil supplies that have been Kim's lifeline.

In South Korea, the country that fought a bloody war with the North for three years and has lived with an

uneasy truce and failed efforts at reconciliation for more than half a century, officials said they believedthat an explosion occurred around 10:36 p.m. New York time - 11:36 a.m. Monday in Korea.

They identified the source of the explosion as North Hamgyong Province, roughly the area where Americaspy satellites have been focused for several years on a variety of suspected underground test sites.

That was less than an hour after North Korean officials had called their counterparts in China and warnedthem that a test was just minutes away. The Chinese, who have been North Korea's main ally for 60 yearbut have grown increasingly frustrated by the its defiance of Beijing, sent an emergency alert to

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Washington through the United States Embassy in Beijing. Within minutes, President Bush was notified,shortly after 10 p.m., by his national security adviser, Stephen Hadley, that a test was imminent.

North Korea's decision to conduct the test demonstrated what the world has suspected for years: thecountry has joined India, Pakistan and Israel as one of the world's "undeclared" nuclear powers. India anPakistan conducted tests in 1998; Israel has never acknowledged conducting a test or possessing aweapon. But by actually setting off a weapon, if that is proven, the North has chosen to end years of carefully crafted and diplomatically useful ambiguity about its abilities.

The North's decision to set off a nuclear device could profoundly change the politics of Asia.

The test occurred only a week after Japan installed a new, more nationalistic prime minister, Shinzo Abe,and just as the country was renewing a debate about whether its ban on possessing nuclear weapons -deeply felt in a country that saw two of its cities incinerated in 1945 - still makes strategic sense.

And it shook the peninsula just as Abe was arriving in South Korea for the first time as prime minister, inan effort to repair a badly strained relationship, having just visited with Chinese leaders in Beijing. Itplaces his untested administration in the midst of one of the region's biggest security crises in years, andone whose outcome will be watched closely in Iran and other states suspected of attempting to follow thepath that North Korea has taken.

Now, Tokyo and Washington are expected to put even more pressure on the South Korean government toterminate its "sunshine policy" of trade, tourism and openings to the North - a policy that has been thesource of enormous tension between Seoul and Washington since Bush took office.

The explosion was the product of nearly four decades of work by North Korea, one of the world's poorestand most isolated countries. The nation of 23 million people appears constantly fearful that its far richer,more powerful neighbors - and particularly the United States - will try to unseat its leadership. Thecountry's founder, Kim Il-sung, who died in 1994, emerged from the Korean War determined to equal thepower of the United States, and acutely aware that Gen. Douglas MacArthur had requested nuclearweapons to use against his country.

But it took decades to put together the technology, and only in the past few years has the North appeare

to have made a political decision to speed forward. "I think they just had their military plan todemonstrate that no one could mess with them, and they weren't going to be deterred, not even by theChinese," a senior American official who deals with the North said late Sunday evening. "In the end, therwas just no stopping them."

But the explosion was also the product of more than two decades of diplomatic failure, spread over atleast three presidencies. American spy satellites saw the North building a good-size nuclear reactor in theearly 1980's, and by the early 1990's the C.I.A. estimated that the country could have one or two nucleaweapons. But a series of diplomatic efforts to "freeze" the nuclear program - including a 1994 accordsigned with the Clinton administration - ultimately broke down, amid distrust and recriminations on bothsides.

Three years ago, just as President Bush was sending American troops toward Iraq, the North threw outthe few remaining weapons inspectors living at their nuclear complex in Yongbyon, and moved 8,000nuclear fuel rods they had kept under lock and key. Those rods contained enough plutonium, experts saidto produce five or six nuclear weapons, though it is unclear how many the North now stockpiles.

For years, some diplomats assumed that the North was using that ambiguity to trade away its nuclearcapability, for recognition, security guarantees, aid and trade with the West. But in the end, the country'sreclusive leader, Kim Jong-il, who inherited the mantle of leadership from his father, still called the "GreaLeader," appears to have concluded that the surest way of getting what he seeks is to demonstrate that h

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has the capability to strike back if attacked.

Assessing the nature of that ability is difficult. If the test occurred as the North claimed, it is unclearwhether it was an actual bomb or a more primitive device. Some experts cautioned that it could try tofake an explosion, setting off conventional explosives; the only way to know for sure will be if American"sniffer" planes, patrolling the North Korean coast, pick up evidence of nuclear byproducts in the air.

Even then, it is not clear that the North could fabricate that bomb into a weapon that could fit atop itsmissiles, one of the country's few significant exports.

But the big fear about North Korea, American officials have long said, has less to do with its ability to lasout than it does with its proclivity to proliferate. The country has sold its missiles and other weapons toIran, Syria and Pakistan; at various moments in the six-party talks that have gone on for the past fewyears, North Korean representatives have threatened to sell nuclear weapons. But in a statement issuedlast week, announcing that it intends to set off a test, the country said it would not sell its nuclearproducts.

The fear of proliferation prompted President Bush to declare in 2003 that the United States would never"tolerate" a nuclear-armed North Korea. He has never defined what he means by "tolerate," and onSunday night Tony Snow, Bush's press secretary, said that, assuming the report of the test is accurate, t

United States would now go to the United Nations to determine "what our next steps should be inresponse to this very serious step."

Nuclear testing is often considered a necessary step to proving a weapon's reliability as well as the mostforceful way for a nation to declare its status as a nuclear power.

"Once they do that, it's serious," said Harold M. Agnew, a former director of the Los Alamos weaponslaboratory, which designed most of the nation's nuclear arms. "Otherwise, the North Koreans are just jerking us around."

Networks of seismometers that detect faint trembles in the earth and track distant rumbles are the bestway to spot an underground nuclear test.

The big challenge is to distinguish the signatures of earthquakes from those of nuclear blasts. Typically,the shock waves from nuclear explosions begin with a sharp spike as earth and rock are compressedviolently. The signal then tends to become fuzzier as surface rumblings and shudders and after shockscreate seismologic mayhem.

With earthquakes, it is usually the opposite. A gentle jostling suddenly becomes much bigger and moreviolent.

Most of the world's seismic networks that look for nuclear blasts are designed to detect explosions assmall as one kiloton, or equal to 1,000 tons of high explosives. On instruments for detecting earthquakessuch a blast would measure a magnitude of about 4, like a small tremor.

Philip E. Coyle III, a former head of weapons testing at the Pentagon and former director of nucleartesting for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, a weapons-design center in California, said theNorth Koreans could learn much from a nuclear test even if it was small by world standards or less than aunqualified success.

"It would not be totally surprising if it was a fizzle and they said it was a success because they learnedsomething," he said. "We did that sometimes. We had a missile defense test not so long ago that failed,but the Pentagon said it was a success because they learned something, which I agree with. Failures canteach you a lot."

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William J. Broad contributed reporting from New York, and Thom Shanker from Washington.WASHINGTON North Korea said Monday that it had set off its first nuclear test, becoming the eighthcountry in history, and arguably the most unstable and most dangerous, to proclaim that it has joined thclub of nuclear weapons states.

The test came just two days after the country was warned by the United Nations Security Council that thaction could lead to severe consequences.

American officials cautioned that they had not yet received any confirmation that the test had occurred.The United States Geological Survey said it had detected a tremor of 4.2 magnitude on the KoreanPeninsula.

China called the test a "flagrant and brazen" violation of international opinion and said it "firmly opposes"North Korea's conduct.

Senior Bush administration officials said that they had little reason to doubt the announcement, andwarned that the test would usher in a new era of confrontation with the isolated and unpredictable countrun by President Kim Jong-il.

Early Monday morning, even before the test was confirmed, Bush administration officials were holdingconference calls to discuss ways to further cut off a country that is already subject to sanctions, and hardliners said the moment had arrived for neighboring countries, especially China and Russia, to cut off thetrade and oil supplies that have been Kim's lifeline.

In South Korea, the country that fought a bloody war with the North for three years and has lived with anuneasy truce and failed efforts at reconciliation for more than half a century, officials said they believedthat an explosion occurred around 10:36 p.m. New York time - 11:36 a.m. Monday in Korea.

They identified the source of the explosion as North Hamgyong Province, roughly the area where Americaspy satellites have been focused for several years on a variety of suspected underground test sites.

That was less than an hour after North Korean officials had called their counterparts in China and warned

them that a test was just minutes away. The Chinese, who have been North Korea's main ally for 60 yearbut have grown increasingly frustrated by the its defiance of Beijing, sent an emergency alert toWashington through the United States Embassy in Beijing. Within minutes, President Bush was notified,shortly after 10 p.m., by his national security adviser, Stephen Hadley, that a test was imminent.

North Korea's decision to conduct the test demonstrated what the world has suspected for years: thecountry has joined India, Pakistan and Israel as one of the world's "undeclared" nuclear powers. India anPakistan conducted tests in 1998; Israel has never acknowledged conducting a test or possessing aweapon. But by actually setting off a weapon, if that is proven, the North has chosen to end years of carefully crafted and diplomatically useful ambiguity about its abilities.

The North's decision to set off a nuclear device could profoundly change the politics of Asia.

The test occurred only a week after Japan installed a new, more nationalistic prime minister, Shinzo Abe,and just as the country was renewing a debate about whether its ban on possessing nuclear weapons -deeply felt in a country that saw two of its cities incinerated in 1945 - still makes strategic sense.

And it shook the peninsula just as Abe was arriving in South Korea for the first time as prime minister, inan effort to repair a badly strained relationship, having just visited with Chinese leaders in Beijing. Itplaces his untested administration in the midst of one of the region's biggest security crises in years, andone whose outcome will be watched closely in Iran and other states suspected of attempting to follow the

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path that North Korea has taken.

Now, Tokyo and Washington are expected to put even more pressure on the South Korean government toterminate its "sunshine policy" of trade, tourism and openings to the North - a policy that has been thesource of enormous tension between Seoul and Washington since Bush took office.

The explosion was the product of nearly four decades of work by North Korea, one of the world's poorestand most isolated countries. The nation of 23 million people appears constantly fearful that its far richer,more powerful neighbors - and particularly the United States - will try to unseat its leadership. Thecountry's founder, Kim Il-sung, who died in 1994, emerged from the Korean War determined to equal thepower of the United States, and acutely aware that Gen. Douglas MacArthur had requested nuclearweapons to use against his country.

But it took decades to put together the technology, and only in the past few years has the North appeareto have made a political decision to speed forward. "I think they just had their military plan todemonstrate that no one could mess with them, and they weren't going to be deterred, not even by theChinese," a senior American official who deals with the North said late Sunday evening. "In the end, therwas just no stopping them."

But the explosion was also the product of more than two decades of diplomatic failure, spread over at

least three presidencies. American spy satellites saw the North building a good-size nuclear reactor in theearly 1980's, and by the early 1990's the C.I.A. estimated that the country could have one or two nucleaweapons. But a series of diplomatic efforts to "freeze" the nuclear program - including a 1994 accordsigned with the Clinton administration - ultimately broke down, amid distrust and recriminations on bothsides.

Three years ago, just as President Bush was sending American troops toward Iraq, the North threw outthe few remaining weapons inspectors living at their nuclear complex in Yongbyon, and moved 8,000nuclear fuel rods they had kept under lock and key. Those rods contained enough plutonium, experts saidto produce five or six nuclear weapons, though it is unclear how many the North now stockpiles.

For years, some diplomats assumed that the North was using that ambiguity to trade away its nuclearcapability, for recognition, security guarantees, aid and trade with the West. But in the end, the country's

reclusive leader, Kim Jong-il, who inherited the mantle of leadership from his father, still called the "GreaLeader," appears to have concluded that the surest way of getting what he seeks is to demonstrate that hhas the capability to strike back if attacked.

Assessing the nature of that ability is difficult. If the test occurred as the North claimed, it is unclearwhether it was an actual bomb or a more primitive device. Some experts cautioned that it could try tofake an explosion, setting off conventional explosives; the only way to know for sure will be if American"sniffer" planes, patrolling the North Korean coast, pick up evidence of nuclear byproducts in the air.

Even then, it is not clear that the North could fabricate that bomb into a weapon that could fit atop itsmissiles, one of the country's few significant exports.

But the big fear about North Korea, American officials have long said, has less to do with its ability to lasout than it does with its proclivity to proliferate. The country has sold its missiles and other weapons toIran, Syria and Pakistan; at various moments in the six-party talks that have gone on for the past fewyears, North Korean representatives have threatened to sell nuclear weapons. But in a statement issuedlast week, announcing that it intends to set off a test, the country said it would not sell its nuclearproducts.

The fear of proliferation prompted President Bush to declare in 2003 that the United States would never"tolerate" a nuclear-armed North Korea. He has never defined what he means by "tolerate," and on

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Sunday night Tony Snow, Bush's press secretary, said that, assuming the report of the test is accurate, tUnited States would now go to the United Nations to determine "what our next steps should be inresponse to this very serious step."

Nuclear testing is often considered a necessary step to proving a weapon's reliability as well as the mostforceful way for a nation to declare its status as a nuclear power.

"Once they do that, it's serious," said Harold M. Agnew, a former director of the Los Alamos weaponslaboratory, which designed most of the nation's nuclear arms. "Otherwise, the North Koreans are just jerking us around."

Networks of seismometers that detect faint trembles in the earth and track distant rumbles are the bestway to spot an underground nuclear test.

The big challenge is to distinguish the signatures of earthquakes from those of nuclear blasts. Typically,the shock waves from nuclear explosions begin with a sharp spike as earth and rock are compressedviolently. The signal then tends to become fuzzier as surface rumblings and shudders and after shockscreate seismologic mayhem.

With earthquakes, it is usually the opposite. A gentle jostling suddenly becomes much bigger and more

violent.

Most of the world's seismic networks that look for nuclear blasts are designed to detect explosions assmall as one kiloton, or equal to 1,000 tons of high explosives. On instruments for detecting earthquakessuch a blast would measure a magnitude of about 4, like a small tremor.

Philip E. Coyle III, a former head of weapons testing at the Pentagon and former director of nucleartesting for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, a weapons-design center in California, said theNorth Koreans could learn much from a nuclear test even if it was small by world standards or less than aunqualified success.

"It would not be totally surprising if it was a fizzle and they said it was a success because they learnedsomething," he said. "We did that sometimes. We had a missile defense test not so long ago that failed,

but the Pentagon said it was a success because they learned something, which I agree with. Failures canteach you a lot."

William J. Broad contributed reporting from New York, and Thom Shanker from Washington.WASHINGTON North Korea said Monday that it had set off its first nuclear test, becoming the eighthcountry in history, and arguably the most unstable and most dangerous, to proclaim that it has joined thclub of nuclear weapons states.

The test came just two days after the country was warned by the United Nations Security Council that thaction could lead to severe consequences.

American officials cautioned that they had not yet received any confirmation that the test had occurred.

The United States Geological Survey said it had detected a tremor of 4.2 magnitude on the KoreanPeninsula.

China called the test a "flagrant and brazen" violation of international opinion and said it "firmly opposes"North Korea's conduct.

Senior Bush administration officials said that they had little reason to doubt the announcement, andwarned that the test would usher in a new era of confrontation with the isolated and unpredictable countrun by President Kim Jong-il.

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Early Monday morning, even before the test was confirmed, Bush administration officials were holdingconference calls to discuss ways to further cut off a country that is already subject to sanctions, and hardliners said the moment had arrived for neighboring countries, especially China and Russia, to cut off thetrade and oil supplies that have been Kim's lifeline.

In South Korea, the country that fought a bloody war with the North for three years and has lived with anuneasy truce and failed efforts at reconciliation for more than half a century, officials said they believedthat an explosion occurred around 10:36 p.m. New York time - 11:36 a.m. Monday in Korea.

They identified the source of the explosion as North Hamgyong Province, roughly the area where Americaspy satellites have been focused for several years on a variety of suspected underground test sites.

That was less than an hour after North Korean officials had called their counterparts in China and warnedthem that a test was just minutes away. The Chinese, who have been North Korea's main ally for 60 yearbut have grown increasingly frustrated by the its defiance of Beijing, sent an emergency alert toWashington through the United States Embassy in Beijing. Within minutes, President Bush was notified,shortly after 10 p.m., by his national security adviser, Stephen Hadley, that a test was imminent.

North Korea's decision to conduct the test demonstrated what the world has suspected for years: the

country has joined India, Pakistan and Israel as one of the world's "undeclared" nuclear powers. India anPakistan conducted tests in 1998; Israel has never acknowledged conducting a test or possessing aweapon. But by actually setting off a weapon, if that is proven, the North has chosen to end years of carefully crafted and diplomatically useful ambiguity about its abilities.

The North's decision to set off a nuclear device could profoundly change the politics of Asia.

The test occurred only a week after Japan installed a new, more nationalistic prime minister, Shinzo Abe,and just as the country was renewing a debate about whether its ban on possessing nuclear weapons -deeply felt in a country that saw two of its cities incinerated in 1945 - still makes strategic sense.

And it shook the peninsula just as Abe was arriving in South Korea for the first time as prime minister, inan effort to repair a badly strained relationship, having just visited with Chinese leaders in Beijing. It

places his untested administration in the midst of one of the region's biggest security crises in years, andone whose outcome will be watched closely in Iran and other states suspected of attempting to follow thepath that North Korea has taken.

Now, Tokyo and Washington are expected to put even more pressure on the South Korean government toterminate its "sunshine policy" of trade, tourism and openings to the North - a policy that has been thesource of enormous tension between Seoul and Washington since Bush took office.

The explosion was the product of nearly four decades of work by North Korea, one of the world's poorestand most isolated countries. The nation of 23 million people appears constantly fearful that its far richer,more powerful neighbors - and particularly the United States - will try to unseat its leadership. Thecountry's founder, Kim Il-sung, who died in 1994, emerged from the Korean War determined to equal the

power of the United States, and acutely aware that Gen. Douglas MacArthur had requested nuclearweapons to use against his country.

But it took decades to put together the technology, and only in the past few years has the North appeareto have made a political decision to speed forward. "I think they just had their military plan todemonstrate that no one could mess with them, and they weren't going to be deterred, not even by theChinese," a senior American official who deals with the North said late Sunday evening. "In the end, therwas just no stopping them."

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But the explosion was also the product of more than two decades of diplomatic failure, spread over atleast three presidencies. American spy satellites saw the North building a good-size nuclear reactor in theearly 1980's, and by the early 1990's the C.I.A. estimated that the country could have one or two nucleaweapons. But a series of diplomatic efforts to "freeze" the nuclear program - including a 1994 accordsigned with the Clinton administration - ultimately broke down, amid distrust and recriminations on bothsides.

Three years ago, just as President Bush was sending American troops toward Iraq, the North threw outthe few remaining weapons inspectors living at their nuclear complex in Yongbyon, and moved 8,000nuclear fuel rods they had kept under lock and key. Those rods contained enough plutonium, experts saidto produce five or six nuclear weapons, though it is unclear how many the North now stockpiles.

For years, some diplomats assumed that the North was using that ambiguity to trade away its nuclearcapability, for recognition, security guarantees, aid and trade with the West. But in the end, the country'sreclusive leader, Kim Jong-il, who inherited the mantle of leadership from his father, still called the "GreaLeader," appears to have concluded that the surest way of getting what he seeks is to demonstrate that hhas the capability to strike back if attacked.

Assessing the nature of that ability is difficult. If the test occurred as the North claimed, it is unclearwhether it was an actual bomb or a more primitive device. Some experts cautioned that it could try to

fake an explosion, setting off conventional explosives; the only way to know for sure will be if American"sniffer" planes, patrolling the North Korean coast, pick up evidence of nuclear byproducts in the air.

Even then, it is not clear that the North could fabricate that bomb into a weapon that could fit atop itsmissiles, one of the country's few significant exports.

But the big fear about North Korea, American officials have long said, has less to do with its ability to lasout than it does with its proclivity to proliferate. The country has sold its missiles and other weapons toIran, Syria and Pakistan; at various moments in the six-party talks that have gone on for the past fewyears, North Korean representatives have threatened to sell nuclear weapons. But in a statement issuedlast week, announcing that it intends to set off a test, the country said it would not sell its nuclearproducts.

The fear of proliferation prompted President Bush to declare in 2003 that the United States would never"tolerate" a nuclear-armed North Korea. He has never defined what he means by "tolerate," and onSunday night Tony Snow, Bush's press secretary, said that, assuming the report of the test is accurate, tUnited States would now go to the United Nations to determine "what our next steps should be inresponse to this very serious step."

Nuclear testing is often considered a necessary step to proving a weapon's reliability as well as the mostforceful way for a nation to declare its status as a nuclear power.

"Once they do that, it's serious," said Harold M. Agnew, a former director of the Los Alamos weaponslaboratory, which designed most of the nation's nuclear arms. "Otherwise, the North Koreans are just jerking us around."

Networks of seismometers that detect faint trembles in the earth and track distant rumbles are the bestway to spot an underground nuclear test.

The big challenge is to distinguish the signatures of earthquakes from those of nuclear blasts. Typically,the shock waves from nuclear explosions begin with a sharp spike as earth and rock are compressedviolently. The signal then tends to become fuzzier as surface rumblings and shudders and after shockscreate seismologic mayhem.

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With earthquakes, it is usually the opposite. A gentle jostling suddenly becomes much bigger and moreviolent.

Most of the world's seismic networks that look for nuclear blasts are designed to detect explosions assmall as one kiloton, or equal to 1,000 tons of high explosives. On instruments for detecting earthquakessuch a blast would measure a magnitude of about 4, like a small tremor.

Philip E. Coyle III, a former head of weapons testing at the Pentagon and former director of nucleartesting for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, a weapons-design center in California, said theNorth Koreans could learn much from a nuclear test even if it was small by world standards or less than aunqualified success.

"It would not be totally surprising if it was a fizzle and they said it was a success because they learnedsomething," he said. "We did that sometimes. We had a missile defense test not so long ago that failed,but the Pentagon said it was a success because they learned something, which I agree with. Failures canteach you a lot."

North Korea – The Nuclear State 

North Korea is a country in the Far East occupying the northern part of the peninsula of Korea. NorthKorea was formed in 1948 when Korea was partitioned along the 38th parallel. Its official language isKorean. Its capital is Pyongyang while its complete name is Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

In 1950, a war began between North and South Korea. North Korea attacked South Korea. United Statesof America dominating the UN troops countered the attack by invading North Korea from South Korea.North Korea, was however sided by China in this war. In 1951, peace negotiations started and eventuallywas attained after 2 years in 1953. The previous borders were restored, thus, the war left no results.

According to recent CIA investigations, North Korea is on the verge of testing its nuclear weapons probabin a cave or mine shaft somewhere in the barren northeast of the country. It is also believed that a smallamount of breakout nuclear material will fallout of the test site and drift towards Japan. This good news

really going to incite excitement in the financial markets of South Korea and Japan. Foreign investors inSouth Korea will move forward to decisions of pulling out their money from the market or minimizing therange of operations. This is a very bad news for the South Korean administrators since they will lose theistrong economies after such a repatriation of money from their markets. Meanwhile, US will look forwardto impose a blockage or other tough measures to control North Korea’s nuclear tests.

It is commented that North Korea is working out on plans of testing its nuclear capabilities within a shorttime. Its is said that these nuclear weapons had been under preparation since last 50 years. This countryhas already been declared as a nuclear state as it has disclosed its nuclear weapons. The aim of NorthKorea behind developing nuclear weapons is believed that it wants to be a “recognized” nuclear state juslike China, India and Pakistan. To attain these motives, it first needs to demonstrate its nuclearcapabilities. Now lets see how was it able to develop such nuclear weapons right from the beginning

through all these 50 years.

According to CIA’s investigation, North Korea started its nuclear proliferation in 1956, just after 3 years othe Korean War. The programme commenced when North Korea signed a pact with USSR who agreed totrain its nuclear scientists. It was with the help of USSR, with which North Korea established its first evernuclear reactor in 1965. Then, in 1974 North Korea also signed a nuclear training agreement with China.Then North Korea built another small nuclear reactor in 1986 at Yongbyon. This time, America played itssinister role and detected the third larger nuclear reactor of North Korea in 1989. According to estimatesthe nuclear proliferation ability of the nuclear reactors of North Korea was enough to enrich plutonium fu

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rods to the necessary levels to make a nuclear bomb. United States considering this state of affairspredicted a future devastation and hazard within Asia. United States offered North Korea with aids andtrade treaties at the cost of suspending its nuclear proliferation. In 1994, a pact was signed between NorKorea and US after which North Korea put her 8000 fuel rods at Yongbyon under seal. However, theyclandestinely treaded on their path, using highly enriched uranium prepared in special centrifugesallegedly supplied by Pakistan (A.Q. Khan Network).

North Korea has been openly alluding about that fact that it is going to join the Nuclear Club. UnitedStates, in 2002, found evidence of their clandestine nuclear enrichment programme and North Koreadidn’t decline this fact and accordingly resumed the reprocessing of Plutonium fuel rods which wassuspended in 1994. Soon after the worldwide disclosure of the fact about North Korea’s nuclearenrichment programme, North Korea declared that she was willing to expose her nuclear capabilities,infact pointing to the Nuclear Test programmes. Later officials from North Korea displayed the reason of "self-defence" for retaining the Nuclear Weapons . Subsequently it was announced that North Korea haddeveloped nuclear weapons and will retain them under any circumstances. North Korea performed somenuclear tests in 1998 using the three-stage Taedopong-I missile over Japan and the Pacific Ocean. NorthKorea openly announced this and its also believed that the ones that are due to take place soon will alsobe announced. North Korea has been alleged to have the technology to produce an actual warhead thatcould fit atop missiles which, by U.S. intelligence estimates, could reach parts of the United States. NorthKorea has not objected to this claim also.

The rivalry between North Korea and US has been since long. Bush calls Kim Jong-II, the leader of NorthKorea, as “tyrant and a dangerous person who starves his own people and has a high concentration of camps". North Korea, on its stance has been right. North Korea has already seen the fate of Baghdad andKabul. Now it has two options. Either wait for America’s invasion or adopt to pre-emption for itspreparation to face the invasions and pressurize the Big Brother. North Korea looks inclined towards theother option much. Showing the nuclear cards is the only option to perpetuate her regime and stayunharmed. There are so less chances that North Korea will switch to negotiations regarding its NuclearProgramme any more.

North Korea, has now earned a new identity in Asia. According to it, China and South Korea should risefrom their illusions and accept the reality. North Korea’s nuclear capability is a tremendous threat to all thAsia. Asia needs to co-operate in this regard, with the Big Brother to explain North Korea about the

repercussions and solve the problem peacefully.

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