•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

United States

Canada

Brazil

Mexico

Japan

Australia

China

India

Indonesia

Korea

Malaysia

Philippines

Taiwan

Thailand

Euro area

Germany

France

Italy

United Kingdom

Russia

South Africa

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

-2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%

Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.*Near-term growth momentum is the difference in percent growth in real GDP for the average of the period 3Q 2018 – 2Q 2019 minus the average of the period of 3Q 2017 – 2Q 2018. **Long-term growth momentum is the difference in percent growth in real GDP for the average of the period 3Q 2018 – 2Q 2019 minus the average of the period of 3Q 2009 – 2Q 2019. Bubble size represents nominal GDP in U.S. dollars at current exchange rates. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.

Real GDP growth

Nominal GDP:

= 5 trillion USD

Developed markets

Emerging markets

Long-term growth momentum**

Near-

term

gro

wth

mo

men

tum

*

= 10 trillion USD

GDP growth

accelerating

GDP growth

decelerating

GDP growth higher than

long-term trendGDP growth lower than

long-term trend

15

0

25

50

75

100

ConsumerConfidence

WageGrowth

NonfarmPayrolls

HousingStarts

Light VehicleSales

BusinessConfidence

Capex DurableOrders

IndustrialProduction

LeadingEconomic

Index

CreditConditions

Example

Source: BEA, Conference Board U.S., FactSet, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Labor, Wards Intelligence, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Indicators are: Consumer Confidence – Monthly survey index of how consumers perceive their own financial status and the general economy; Wage Growth – Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers; Nonfarm Payrolls – Monthly change in U.S. nonfarm employment (three-month moving average); Housing Starts – Number of private housing units that construction has started within a specified timeframe; Light Vehicle Sales – Cars and passenger trucks sold in a given month; Business Confidence –Monthly survey of Chief Executive Officers about their outlook for the economy; Capex – Monthly new orders of non-defense capital goods (excluding aircraft); Durable Orders –Monthly new orders of durable goods in the manufacturing sector, seasonally adjusted; Industrial Production – Monthly output of the industrial sector; Leading Economic Index – An index aggregating values of 10 key variables intended to forecast future U.S. economic activity; Credit Conditions – Leading Credit Index that aggregates performance of six financial market instruments to track credit conditions in the U.S. economy.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.

U.S. business cycle indicatorsCurrent percentile rank relative to range of data since Jan. 1990

Hot

Cold

Consumers Businesses

3 mth

ago

Latest

29

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

21%

'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

46

48

50

52

54

56

'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

'80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

Contribution to real GDP growthYear-over-year change

Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers’ IndicesLevel

Electricity consumptionYear-to-date, year-over-year change

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) CEIC, National Bureau of Statistics of China; (Top right) Caixin/Markit, J.P. Morgan Economic Research; (Bottom right) CEIC, China Electricity Council.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.

Net exports

Gross capital formation (investment)

Consumption

GDP

Secondary

Tertiary

9/2019: 8.7%

9/2019: 3.0%

Manufacturing

Services 10/2019: 51.7

10/2019: 51.1

Year-to-

date: 6.2%

8

•

•

•

•

•

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) FactSet; (Right) BIS. G4 are the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve. *Key deposit rates that central banks charge commercial banks on their excess reserves. **The BoJ has adopted a three-tier system in which a negative interest rate of -0.1% will be applied to the policy rate balance of the aggregate amount of all financial institutions that hold current accounts at the BoJ. The UK deposit rate has not been actively used as a monetary policy tool since late 2017. ***Count covers the 38 central banks included in the Bank for International Settlements’ central bank policy monitor. Year-to-date data reflect most recently available as of 30/09/19. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.

Policy rateDeposit

rate*

Eurozone 0.0% -0.5%

Japan** -0.1 to 0.0% -0.1%

UK 0.75% 0.5%

U.S. 1.5 to 1.75% 1.6%

Changes in central bank policy ratesNumber of hikes or cuts***

G4 central bank key policy ratesPer annum

Developed markets

Emerging marketsRate hikes

Rate cutsDeveloped markets

Emerging markets

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19YTD

23

•

•

•

•

•

0.0x

0.5x

1.0x

1.5x

2.0x

2.5x

3.0x

3.5x

4.0x

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

Total social financingRMB billions Year-over-year change, 3MMA

Chinese credit impulse and new orders% of nominal GDP, year-over-year change Difference from one year ago

Credit growth to GDP growthCredit*, ratio, year-over-year change, 3-month moving average

Source: CEIC, People’s Bank of China, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Top) China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Shanghai Clearing House; (Bottom right) Ministry of Finance of China. Credit growth, and credit impulse, to GDP growth ratio utilize rolling 12-month nominal GDP and credit stock. CPI stands for consumer price index and PPI stands for producer price index. *Stock of credit to the real economy, defined as the net total social financing plus government financing. **Wenzhou SME crisis refers to the wave of bankruptcies and funding problems faced by a large number of SMEs in Wenzhou in 2011. ***LGFV refers to local government financing vehicle. ****Credit impulse measures the year-over-year change of credit flow (net total social financing plus government financing) as a percentage of nominal GDP. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.

Rapid rebound in CPI & PPI

Credit impulse**** (advanced 6 months)

Global composite PMI - New orders

Total social financing

Global Financial Crisis

Loosening:

216bps rate cuts,

4tn stimulus

Tightening: 125bps

rate hikes, BASEL III

adoption

Wenzhou small and medium

enterprise (SME) crisis**

Interbank

liquidity

crunchLoosening: 56bps

rate cuts, trust

boom

Tightening:

shadow banking

tightening

Loosening:

165bps rate

cuts, LGFV

debt swap***

A-share

market crash

Tightening

Rate cut

Bank loans + direct financing

Off-balance sheet financing

Loosening: RRR cuts

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

'15 '16 '17 '18 '19-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20

13

•

•

•

•

•

Source: FactSet, International Monetary Fund, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Net debt is the gross debt of a country less any financial assets. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.

Net government debt to GDP and 10-year local currency government bond yield*

Net Debt to GDP Yield

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

26

•

•

•

Developed markets political timeline

Emerging markets political timeline

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

December China

Central Economic

Work Conference

March China

National People’s

Congress

2020

2020

September

Hong Kong

Legislative

Council election

15 April

South Korea

Legislative election

11 January Taiwan

Presidential &

Legislative elections

June Global

WTO Ministerial

Meeting

12 December UK

General elections

31 January UK

New Brexit Deadline

7 May UK

Local elections

3 November U.S.

Presidential elections

3 November U.S.

House of Representatives

& Senate elections

21-22 November

Saudi Arabia

G20 Summit

27

•

•

•

•

•

-1.6 -1.6

-1.2-1.1 -0.9

-0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5

-0.10.2

0.4

1.3 1.41.5

3.1

1.0

-4

-2

0

2

4

Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.*The real trade-weighted exchange rate index is the weighted average of a market’s currency relative to a basket of other major currencies adjusted for the effects of inflation. The weights are determined by comparing the relative trade balances, in terms of one market’s currency, with other markets within the basket. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.

Currency deviation from 10-year average in real effective exchange rate* termsNumber of standard deviations away from average

FX above

long-term

average

FX below

long-term

average

Current

Max

Min

64

•

•

•

•

•

-4 -2 0 2 4

Commodity Index

Agriculture

Natural Gas

Oil

Industrial Metals

Precious Metals

Gold

Example

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) CME; (Right) Barclays, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, MSCI. Commodities are represented by the appropriate Bloomberg Commodity sub-index priced in U.S. dollars. Crude oil shown is West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. Other commodity prices are represented by futures contracts. Z-scores are calculated using daily prices over the past five years. Based on Bloomberg Commodity Index (Comdty.); MSCI ACWI Select – Energy Producers IMI, Metals & Mining Producers ex Gold & Silver IMI, Gold Miners IMI, Agriculture Producers IMI (Energy (E), M&M (E), Gold (E), Agri. (E)); Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Credit – Corporate Energy Index (Energy (FI)); Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit – Corporate High Yield Metals & Mining Index (U.S. M&M (FI)); Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate Credit – Corporate Metals & Mining Index (Euro M&M (FI)); J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Corporate Credit – Corporate Metals & Mining Index (EM M&M (FI)).5-year total return data is used to calculate annualized returns (Ann. Ret.) and 5-year price return data is used to calculate annualized volatility (Ann. Vol.) and reflects the period 31/10/14 – 31/10/19. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.

Commodity pricesCommodity price z-scores for the past five years, USD per unit

Returns

High level

Current

Low level

$2.6

$39

$1,515

$54

$1.6 $4.8

$66

$1,560

$96$26

$1,050

$37

$144$84

$117

$195$144

$187

$127$73

$79

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q '19 Ann. Ret. Ann. Vol.

Euro M&M

(FI)Energy (FI) Gold (E) M&M (E)

Euro M&M

(FI)Gold (E) Gold (E) Gold (E)

8.6% -7.3% 62.9% 37.5% -0.9% 6.0% 11.2% 35.7%

Energy (FI)EM M&M

(FI)M&M (E) Agri. (E)

US M&M

(FI)

EM M&M

(FI)

EM M&M

(FI)M&M (E)

2.1% -10.9% 57.8% 20.3% -3.5% 2.3% 6.6% 24.3%

Agri. (E) Agri. (E)US M&M

(FI)

EM M&M

(FI)Energy (FI) Energy (FI)

US M&M

(FI)Energy (E)

-0.2% -13.7% 45.5% 14.7% -3.7% 1.4% 4.3% 19.4%

EM M&M

(FI)

Euro M&M

(FI)

EM M&M

(FI)

US M&M

(FI)

EM M&M

(FI)

Euro M&M

(FI)Agri. (E) Comdty.

-0.8% -16.1% 32.4% 9.9% -4.1% 0.9% 3.6% 13.7%

US M&M

(FI)Energy (E) Energy (E) Gold (E) Agri. (E)

US M&M

(FI)Energy (FI)

US M&M

(FI)

-4.4% -20.6% 29.2% 9.4% -8.9% 0.8% 3.5% 13.2%

Energy (E)US M&M

(FI)

Euro M&M

(FI)Energy (E) Comdty. Comdty.

Euro M&M

(FI)Agri. (E)

-15.1% -23.7% 21.9% 9.1% -11.2% -1.8% 2.1% 11.8%

Gold (E) Comdty. Agri. (E) Energy (FI) Energy (E) Agri. (E) M&M (E)EM M&M

(FI)

-16.4% -24.7% 15.7% 9.0% -11.4% -3.0% 0.2% 10.8%

Comdty. Gold (E) Comdty.Euro M&M

(FI)Gold (E) Energy (E) Energy (E)

Euro M&M

(FI)

-17.0% -26.3% 11.8% 3.9% -13.0% -6.3% -1.8% 8.2%

M&M (E) M&M (E) Energy (FI) Comdty. M&M (E) M&M (E) Comdty. Energy (FI)

-19.0% -40.1% 11.1% 1.7% -17.8% -11.8% -6.7% 5.8%

2014 - 2019

66

•

•

•

•

DMEM

Europe

AxJAPxJ

U.S.

U.S. HY

U.S. bonds

Cash

Hedge fund - mkt neutral

Hedge fund - macro

Hedge fund - distressedHedge fund - rel val

Private real estateAPxJ HD

AxJ HD

DM HD

EM HD

Gold

Commodities

REITs

EMD

Asian bonds

Conservative

Balanced

Aggressive

High yielding

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Dow Jones, FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Hypothetical portfolios were created to illustrate different risk/return profiles and are not meant to represent actual asset allocation. U.S. dollar total return calculations are based on MSCI Total Return, Bloomberg Barclays and J.P. Morgan indices. AxJ stands for MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan and APxJ stands for MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan. *Monthly total returns between 31/10/04 and 31/10/19 used for all asset classes.Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.

Annualized returns and volatilityTotal returns in USD*

Annualized volatility

An

nu

alized

retu

rns

Equities

Bonds and cash

Portfolios

High dividend (HD) equities

Alternatives

Hypothetical portfolio construction

Conservative Balanced Aggressive High yielding

DM equities 10% 30% 20% DM HD equities 25%

EM equities 5% 10% 40% EM HD equities 10%

U.S. HY 10% 15% 10% APxJ HD equities 10%

U.S. bonds 25% 10% 5% U.S. HY 20%

Cash 35% 10% 0% EMD 15%

EMD 10% 15% 5% Asian bonds 15%

REITs 5% 10% 20% REITs 5%

76

•

•

•Source: Alerian, Bank of America, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Clarkson, Drewry Maritime Consultants, FactSet, Federal Reserve, FTSE, MSCI, NCREIF, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Global Transport: Levered yields for transport assets are calculated as the difference between charter rates (rental income), operating expenses, debt amortization and interest expenses, as a percentage of equity value. Yields for each of the sub-vessel types above are calculated and respective weightings are applied to each of the sub-sectors to arrive at the current levered yields for Global Transportation; asset classes are based on NCREIF ODCE (Private Real Estate), FTSE NAREIT Global/USA REITs (Global/U.S. REITs), MSCI Global Infrastructure Asset Index (Infrastructure Assets), Bloomberg Barclays U.S Convertibles Composite (Convertibles), Bloomberg Barclays Global High Yield Index (Global HY bonds), J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index EM Global (GBI-EM) (Local EMD), J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Global (EMBIG) (USD EMD), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index Non-investment Grade (Asia HY bonds), MSCI Emerging Markets (EM Equity), MSCI Emerging Markets High Dividend Yield Index (EM High Div. Equity), MSCI World High Dividend Yield Index (DM High Div. Equity), MSCI Europe (Eur. Equity), MSCI USA (U.S. Equity). Transport yield is as of 30/06/19, Infrastructure 30/06/19, EM High Div. Equity and DM High Div. Equity 31/10/19. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.

Asset class yields

Equity

Fixed income

Alternatives

9.4%

7.3%

6.1%

5.8%

5.3%5.1%

4.3%

4.0% 3.9%3.8%

3.6%3.4%

2.9% 2.8%

1.9%1.7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Globaltransport

Asia HYbonds

GlobalHY bonds

Local cur.EMD

EM highdiv. equity

USDEMD

Infrastructureassets

GlobalREITs

DM highdiv. equity

U.S.REITs

Eur.equity

Privatereal estate

EMequity

Convertibles U.S.equity

U.S.10-year

69

•

•

•

•

•

Yields and correlations of fixed income returns to equities Yield, 10-year correlation between monthly total returns

Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, FactSet, ICE BofA Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan Economics Research, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Based on Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury (UST) Bellwether 2y & 10y (2y & 10y UST), Bloomberg Barclays Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), ICE BofAML Country Government (1-10y) (France, Germany, Japan & UK (1-10y)), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate, Credit – Investment Grade & High Yield (U.S. Aggregate, IG & HY), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Floating Rate (U.S. Floating Rate), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Securitized – Mortgage-Backed Securities (U.S. MBS), Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European High Yield (Europe HY), J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global (Local EMD), J.P. Morgan EMBI Global (USD EMD), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit (JACI) (USD Asia Credit), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit (JACI) – High Yield (USD Asia HY), J.P. Morgan CEMBI (USD EM Corporate Credit), J.P. Morgan Asia Diversified (JADE) (Local Asia). *Correlations are based on 10-years of monthly returns. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.

Government

Credit

Emerging Market

Higher yielding

sectors

Stronger correlation

to equities

Government & Credit

2y UST10y UST TIPS

Japan (1-10y)Germany (1-10y)

France (1-10y)

UK (1-10y)

U.S. Aggregate

U.S. IG

U.S. HY

U.S. Floating RateU.S. MBS

Europe HY

Local EMDUSD EMD

USD Asia Credit

USD Asia HY

USD EMD corporates

Local Asia

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

-0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Yie

ld

Correlation to MSCI AC World*

51

•

•

•

•

•

Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Based on Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Bellwethers Index (2, 5, 10, 30-year U.S. Treasuries), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Notes Index (TIPS), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Floating Rate Notes Index (U.S. Floating Rate), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Securitized – MBS Index (U.S. MBS), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit – Corporate – Investment Grade Index (U.S. Corporates), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit – Corporate – High Yield Index (U.S. High Yield), J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Global (EMBIG) (USD EMD), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index (USD Asia Credit), J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index – EM Global (GBI-EM) (Local EMD). *Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of the principal) of a fixed income investment to a change in interest rates and is expressed as number of years. **Correlation measured over past 10 years of monthly total returns. Rising interest rates mean falling bond prices, while declining interest rates mean rising bond prices. Change in bond price is calculated using both duration and convexity, assuming a 1% fall in relevant local interest rate. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.

Illustrative impact of a 100bps fall in interest ratesAssumes a parallel shift in the yield curve and steady spreads

Price return

Total return

U.S. Treasuries 31/10/19 31/12/18Duration*

(years)

Correlation** to

10-year UST

2-Year 1.52% 2.48% 1.96 0.76

5-Year 1.51% 2.51% 4.8 0.93

TIPS 0.15% 0.98% 4.7 0.71

10-Year 1.69% 2.69% 9.02 1.00

30-Year 2.17% 3.02% 22.1 0.92

Sector

U.S. Floating Rate 2.32% 3.64% 0.13 -0.34

U.S. MBS 2.45% 3.39% 2.86 0.83

U.S. Investment Grade 2.84% 4.20% 7.88 0.67

U.S. High Yield 5.70% 7.95% 3.11 -0.20

USD EMD 5.03% 7.05% 7.69 0.25

USD Asia Credit 3.78% 5.19% 5.32 0.34

Local EMD 5.81% 7.20% 4.81 -0.03

Yield / Yield to worst

0.1%

2.0%

2.8%

4.8%

5.0%

8.5%

8.3%

2.0%

4.9%

4.9%

9.5%

25.1%

2.4%

4.6%

8.4%

8.6%

10.8%

11.4%

13.4%

3.6%

6.6%

6.9%

11.3%

27.4%

0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32%

U.S. Floating Rate

U.S. MBS

U.S. HY

USD Asia Credit

Local EMD

U.S. IG

USD EMD

2y UST

5y UST

TIPS

10y UST

30y UST

52

•

•

•

•

•

15%

-6%

-40%

15%

47%

15%

0%

11%

5%

-11%

6%

17%

22%

4% 4%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

'06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 2Q '19

Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) Compustat; (Right) Federal Reserve System. EPS levels are based on annual operating earnings per share except for 2019, which are quarterly. Percentages may not sum due to rounding. USD is the nominal effective exchange rate. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.

S&P 500 year-over-year operating EPS growthAnnual growth contribution

S&P 500 sales and the U.S. dollarYear-over-year change Year-over-year change

Sales per share USD (8 mth lead, inverted)

Share of EPS growth 2Q ’19 Avg. '06-'18

Margin -1.3% 3.9%

Revenue 3.0% 3.0%

Share count 2.1% 0.5%

Total EPS growth 3.8% 7.4%

2019

(Quarterly)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

'99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19

44

•

•

•

•

Source: FactSet, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Right) CEIC, national statistics agencies. Earnings per share (EPS) used is next 12 months’ aggregate estimate. *Universe of stocks within the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan index are split into three buckets depending on their revenue exposure to their domestic market. Over the time period examined (01/01/09 – 30/09/19), monthly adjustments are made to the buckets to reflect changes in a company's operations over time. Subsequently, earnings-per-share (EPS) for each bucket is calculated by summing the market-value weighted EPS for each company on a monthly basis over the examined period. Each EPS series is then indexed to 100 on 01/01/09. **EM Asia ex-China includes Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Overall exports aggregate is gross domestic product (GDP)-weighted. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. For illustrative purposes only.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/10/19.

Domestic vs. exports-oriented Asian companies*MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan, earnings per share, Jan. 2009 = 100

Growth in nominal exports and earnings per shareUSD, year-over-year change

MSCI AC Asia

Pacific ex-Japan EPS

EM Asia ex-China exports**

Less than 70% of

revenue derived

domestically

Between 70% and

95% of revenue

derived domesticallyMore than 95% of

revenue derived

domestically

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

'01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19

42

Vincent Juvyns

Luxembourg

Tilmann Galler, CFA

Frankfurt

Maria Paola Toschi

Milan

Shogo Maekawa

Tokyo

Lucia Gutierrez Mellado

Madrid

Tai Hui

Hong Kong

Marcella Chow

Hong Kong

Ian Hui

Hong Kong

Yoshinori Shigemi

Tokyo

Kerry Craig, CFA

Melbourne

Dr. Jasslyn Yeo, CFA

Singapore

Karen Ward

London

Ambrose Crofton

London

Chaoping Zhu, CFA

Shanghai

Jai Malhi

London

Manuel Arroyo Ozores, CFA

Madrid

Agnes Lin

Taipei

Michael Bell, CFA

London

Alex Dryden, CFA

New York

Samantha Azzarello

New York

Dr. David Kelly, CFA

New York

Dr. Cecelia Mundt

New York

Meera Pandit

New York

John Manley

New York

Tyler Voigt, CFA

New York

Gabriela Santos

New York

David Lebovitz

New York

Jordan Jackson

New York

Jennie Li

New York

Hannah Anderson

Hong Kong

Hugh Gimber, CFA

London