Knowledge Session

Samiya Mukhtar

20-01-12

Power Paradigm | Series I of III

POWER PARADIGM

SERIES I | Electricity Generation in Pakistann

SERIES I | Available Capacity

SERIES I | Actual Generation

SERIES I | Sources of Electricity

SERIES I | Cost of Generation

SERIES II | Electricity Consumption in Pakistan

SERIES II | Distribution of Electricity

SERIES II | Sales of Electricity

SERIES II | Current & Expected Demand of Electricity

SERIES II | The Subsidy

SERIES III | Power Sector of Pakistan

SERIES III | Refresher: Demand & Supply Dynamics

SERIES III | Regulatory bodies

SERIES III | Cost Comparison [ Long term perspective vs

Meeting Immediate needs]

SERIES III | Projects in Pipeline

SERIES III | Key Issues

ELECTRICITY GENERATION

Installed Production Installed Production Installed Production Installed Annual Installed Production

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Thermal IPPs 6,016 3,815 6,035 3,989 6,218 3,974 7,322 4,433 8,587 4,845

Hydel WAPDA 6,444 3,635 6,444 3,258 6,444 3,155 6,444 3,188 6,444 3,643

Thermal GENCOs 4,832 2,468 4,899 2,341 4,900 2,230 4,885 2,239 4,885 1,611

Thermal KESC 1,756 933 1,756 989 1,846 943 1,946 909 1,821 893

Nuclear Two Nuclear plants 462 240 462 323 462 170 462 305 787 346

Thermal RPPs 150 24 286 107 336 123 172 78 453 192

Thermal Others (CPPs/SPPs) - 20 239 72 239 119 272 152 324 100

Hydel IPPs 30 11 111 15 111 62 111 64 111 35

Import Mainly from Iran - 20 - 30 - 30 - 31 - 34

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000 M

Ws

Source wise Electricity Generation Capacity & Actual Production over the years

ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL

Installed Production Installed Production Installed Production Installed Production Installed Production

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Import - 20 - 30 - 30 - 31 - 34

Nuclear 462 240 462 323 462 170 462 305 787 346

Hydel 6,474 3,646 6,555 3,272 6,555 3,217 6,555 3,253 6,555 3,678

Thermal 12,754 7,259 13,215 7,499 13,539 7,390 14,597 7,811 16,070 7,641

Annual (MWhrs) 172,484,4 97,814,00 177,232,3 97,451,00 180,070,5 94,663,00 189,338,6 99,856,00 205,089,1 102,484,0

-

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

MW

MW

Eelectricity Generation by Fuel

FUEL WISE CONTRIBUTION IN THERMAL ELECTRICITY

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Coal 16 16 13 16 15

FO+HSD 3,019 3,416 2,912 4,069 4,092

GAS 4,224 4,067 4,464 3,727 3,324

GAS % 58.2% 54.2% 60.4% 47.7% 44.7%

FO+HSD % 41.6% 45.6% 39.4% 52.1% 55.1%

Coal % 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

MW

Contribution of fuel in production of thermal electricity

ELECTRICITY GENERATION (GENCOS & KESC)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Installed

capacity

Actual

production

Installed

capacity

Actual

production

Installed

capacity

Actual

production

Installed

capacity

Actual

production

Installed

capacity

Actual

production

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

MW

GENCOs vs KESC (Installed & Actual)

Gencos KESC

ELECTRICITY GENERATION OF ST-RFO/CC-DUAL FUEL BASED IPPS

0

2.5

5

7.5

10

12.5

15

17.5

20

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Saba Power LalPir PakGen HUBCO KAPCO (CC |Dual )

PK

R

MW

H

Electricity Generation of ST-RFO/CC-Dual Fuel based IPPs

Installed Units generated (MWH) Cost of Generation

ELECTRICITY GENERATION OF ENGINE BASED IPPS

0

9

18

27

36

45

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011

Japan Power Southern Power KEL ATGL APL NPL LPTL HNP NCPL

PK

R M

WH

Electricity Generation of Engine based IPPs

Installed Units generated (MWH) Cost of Generation

ELECTRICITY GENERATION OF GAS BASED CC IPPS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

07 08 09 10 11 07 08 09 10 11 07 08 09 10 11 07 08 09 10 11 07 08 09 10 11 09 10 11 11 11 11 11 11

Uch Roush TNBL Fauji Kabirwala Habibullah Altern (Engine) SECL Engro Saif OrientFPCDL

PK

R

Electricity Generation of Gas based CC IPPs

Installed Units generated (MWH) Cost of Generation

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

Hydel 0.37 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.1 0.16 0.12 0.19 0.28 0.19 0.17

Nuclear 0.51 0.51 0.51 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12

Coal 2.7 3.06 3.06 3.06 3.06 3.06 3.06

Gas 3.52 3.49 3.39 3.4 3.47 3.52 3.6 3.47 3.48 3.24 3.32 3.32

Import 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.26 4.26 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.29 4.26 4.26 8.57

Wind 9.12 9.12 9.12 9.12

Mixed 10.5 10.5 10.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5

HSD 16.23 16.23 16.23 16.24 14.2 14.94 14.83 15.55 14.23 15.63

RFO 9.81 10.08 10.19 10.21 10.39 10.91 11.37 12.14 13.22 14.09 14.73 14.76

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

PK

R

PK

R Fuel Cost

COST OF ELECTRICITY (FUEL COST)

WHO DECIDES HOW MUCH TO PRODUCE?

National Power Control Centre decides the operation and load dispatch of power plants:

Based on Merit | The Heat Rate

Merit Order for Power Generation Plants (2011)

Order Plant Fuel Type

Cost per unit (PKR)

1 Uch Gas 0.5

6 Saif Gas 2.7

7 Sapphire Electric Gas 2.7

8 Foundation Power Gas 2.8

9 KAPCO-I Gas 2.8

11 Engro Gas 3.0

13 KAPCO-II Gas 3.1

18 KAPCO-III Gas 3.4

33 Engro Mix 10.6

39 KAPCO-I RFO 12.8

41 HUBCO-N RFO 14.6

43 Atlas RFO 13.7

44 Nishat Power RFO 13.7

Merit Order for Power Generation Plants (2011)

Order Plant Fuel Type

Cost per unit (PKR)

45 Nishat Chunian RFO 13.7

46 Liberty Power RFO 13.8

47 KAPCO-II RFO 14.2

48 KEL RFO 14.2

52 HUBCO RFO 14.6

53 LalPir RFO 14.9

54 PakGen RFO 14.9

60 KAPCO-I HSD 17.1

61 Saif HSD 17.2

64 Engro HSD 18.2

65 KAPCO-II HSD 18.8

69 KAPCO-III HSD 19.8

74 GTPS Kotri 1-2 HSD 47.2

POWER PARADIGM | SERIES II

| Electricity Consumption in Pakistan

SERIES II | Distribution of Electricity

SERIES II | Sales of Electricity

SERIES II | Current & Expected Demand

SERIES II | The Subsidy

Units Produced Units Purchased Units Sold Losses

Units Billed Amount Billed Amount Realized

GoP applicable tariff Nepra tariff Difference

Per Capital Consumption Economic Segment wise consumption

Projected Consumption

Knowledge Session

Samiya Mukhtar

08-02-12

Power Paradigm | Series II of III

POWER PARADIGM

SERIES I | Electricity Generation in Pakistan

SERIES I | Available Capacity

SERIES I | Actual Generation

SERIES I | Sources of Electricity

SERIES I | Cost of Generation

SERIES II | Electricity Consumption in Pakistan

SERIES II | Distribution of Electricity

SERIES II | Sales of Electricity

SERIES II | The Subsidy

SERIES III | Power Sector of Pakistan

SERIES III | Refresher: Demand & Supply Dynamics

SERIES III | Regulatory bodies

SERIES III | Cost Comparison [ Long term perspective vs

Meeting Immediate needs]

SERIES III | Projects in Pipeline

SERIES III | Key Issues

REFRESHER | ELECTRICITY GENERATION

Installed Production Installed Production Installed Production Installed Production Installed Production

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Import - 20 - 30 - 30 - 31 - 34

Nuclear 462 240 462 323 462 170 462 305 787 346

Hydel 6,474 3,646 6,555 3,272 6,555 3,217 6,555 3,253 6,555 3,678

Thermal 12,754 7,259 13,215 7,499 13,539 7,390 14,597 7,811 16,070 7,641

Annual (MWhrs) 172,484,4 97,814,00 177,232,3 97,451,00 180,070,5 94,663,00 189,338,6 99,856,00 205,089,1 102,484,0

-

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

MW

MW

GW

MW

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

Hydel 0.37 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.1 0.16 0.12 0.19 0.28 0.19 0.17

Nuclear 0.51 0.51 0.51 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12

Coal 2.7 3.06 3.06 3.06 3.06 3.06 3.06

Gas 3.52 3.49 3.39 3.4 3.47 3.52 3.6 3.47 3.48 3.24 3.32 3.32

Import 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.26 4.26 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.29 4.26 4.26 8.57

Wind 9.12 9.12 9.12 9.12

Mixed 10.5 10.5 10.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5

HSD 16.23 16.23 16.23 16.24 14.2 14.94 14.83 15.55 14.23 15.63

RFO 9.81 10.08 10.19 10.21 10.39 10.91 11.37 12.14 13.22 14.09 14.73 14.76

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

PK

R

PK

R

Fuel Cost

REFRESHER |COST OF ELECTRICITY

Average cost

in PKR

%

production

Per Unit

Production Cost

Hydel 0.2 35% 0.1

Coal 3.0 0% 0.0

HSD 15.4 0% 0.1

RFO 11.8 35% 4.1

Gas 3.4 25% 0.9

Nuclear 1.0 3% 0.0

Import 4.6 0% 0.0

Mixed 11.3 1% 0.1

Wind 9.1 0% 0.0

5.24*

Add | Cap Charges / Unit | 1.82

Electricity Procurement Price | 7.06

* PKR 5.62 as per CPPA procurement report

31% 25% 27%

31% 25%

38%

49%

42% 45% 43%

33% 34%

40% 48% 45% 37%

43%

30%

16% 31% 27%

25% 36% 36%

25% 25% 25% 27% 28% 26% 26%

22% 24% 27% 26% 25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month wise consumption of fuel (FY11)

Coal HSD RFO Hydel Gas Nuclear Import Mixed

MONTH WISE FUEL CONSUMPTION

Budgeted Generation Budgeted Energy Cost Per Unit G. Cost

GW PKR in mln PKR in mln

Generation % Energy Charges %

Thermal -RFO 33,329 35.8 491,711 76.6 14.8

Hydel 28,114 30.2 4,833 0.8 0.2

Thermal -Gas 23,978 25.8 96,902 15.1 4.0

Nuclear 4,803 5.2 5,375 0.8 1.1

HSD 1,863 2.0 33,610 5.2 18.0

Mixed 585 0.6 6,724 1.0 11.5

Import from Iran 260 0.3 2,261 0.4 8.7

Coal 76 0.1 232 0.0 3.1

Wind 8 0.0 69 0.0 8.6

93,016 100% 641,717 100% 6.9

PROJECTED GENERATION & COST OF GENERATION (FY12)

Capacity Charges 169,582

Total Generation Cost 811,299

Per Unit Cost 8.72

LESCO MEPCO KESC PESCO FESCO IESCO GEPCO HESCO QESCO

Others 5 6 163 11 6 1,031 1 27 -

Bulk Supply 416 159 955 533 236 636 268 218 107

Public Light 96 24 82 21 7 93 8 101 4

Agriculture 1,062 2,105 125 375 848 90 319 783 3,265

Commercial 1,225 612 1,043 542 499 896 429 386 94

Domestic 5,900 4,982 4,257 5,577 3,923 3,367 3,632 3,128 464

Industrial 6,036 2,302 3,447 1,653 3,079 1,561 1,783 1,170 114

Total 14,740 10,190 10,072 8,712 8,598 7,674 6,440 5,813 4,048

14,740

10,190 10,072

8,712 8,598

7,674

6,440

5,813

4,048

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

% of Total 19% 13% 13% 11% 11% 10% 8% 8% 5%

DISCO WISE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY TO COUNTRY G

WH

GW

H

Domestic

46.2%

Industrial

27.7%

Commercial

7.5%

Agriculture

11.8%

Public Light

0.6%

Bulk Supply

4.6% Others

1.6%

Segment wise Electricity Consumption

ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN PAKISTAN

TRANSMISSION LOSSES

Energy Produced

[PEPCO System (GW)

EPP chargable

(PKR in mln)

Energy Sold

(GW) Per Unit cost

Transmission loss Tranmission loss Tranmission loss

no of units (GW) PKR in mln %

Jul-10 9,022 40,289 8,734 4.61 (285,) (1,314) (3.2%)

Aug-10 8,940 32,880 8,729 3.77 (210) (791) (2.3%)

Sep-10 8,202 32,793 7,983 4.11 (217,) (891) (2.6%)

Oct-10 7,701 35,867 7,493 4.79 (205) (981) (2.7%)

Nov-10 6,556 27,082 6,393 4.24 (160) (677) (2.4%)

Dec-10 6,650 37,276 6,405 5.82 (240) (1,401) (3.6%)

Jan-11 6,361 47,434 6,145 7.72 (212) (1,638) (3.3%)

Feb-11 5,709 35,597 5,545 6.42 (158) (1,020) (2.8%)

Mar-11 6,671 46,305 6,462 7.17 (205) (1,472) (3.1%)

Apr-11 6,715 48,738 6,555 7.43 (156) (1,166) (2.3%)

May-11 8,815 53,472 8,493 6.30 (318) (2,006) (3.6%)

Jun-11 9,133 55,778 8,798 6.34 (329) (2,091) (3.6%)

-

Annual

90,481 493,518 87,740 7.44 (2,741) (20,100) (3.0%)

KESC and

others

12,003 65,534

9,821 7.44 (2,079) (15,480) (3.0%)

Units Purchased Units Sold/Billed Dist Losses Amount Lost

PESCO 13,396 8,712 (35%) (37,132)

IESCO 8,502 7,674 (-10%) (7,230)

GEPCO 7,314 6,439 (-12%) (7,624)

LESCO 16,995 14,741 (-13%) (21,177)

FESCO 9,685 8,596 (-11%) (9,411)

MEPCO 12,471 10,189 (-18%) (18,955)

HESCO 8,784 5,814 (-34%) (27,228)

QESCO 5,084 4,048 (-20%) (7,997)

KESC 15,433 10,072 (-35%) (56,961)

97,664 76,285 (-22%) (190,903)

DISCO WISE DISTRIBUTION LOSSES

Accounting for 12% T&D Losses : (87,408)

DISCO WISE RECOVERIES

Units Sold/Billed Amount Billed Amount Realized Recovery Ratio Amount Lost

PESCO

8,712

69,065

54,146 78.4%

(14,919)

IESCO

7,674

67,015

62,580 93.4%

(4,435)

GEPCO

6,439

56,111

55,459 98.8%

(652)

LESCO

14,741

138,501

135,872 98.1%

(2,629)

FESCO

8,596

74,289

74,111 99.8%

(178)

MEPCO

10,189

84,637

82,922 98.0%

(1,715)

HESCO

5,814

53,302

31,501 59.1%

(21,801)

QESCO

4,048

31,250

12,810 41.0%

(18,440)

KESC

10,072

107,016

91,559 85.6%

(15,457)

76,285

681,186

600,960 88.2%

(80,226)

No. of units

received 67,092

(67,360)

PEPCO SYSTEM

Units Purchased Units Sold/Billed Units Lost Sales Price

2007 77817 62674 (25,163) 4.1

2008 77475 62719 (23,549) 4.7

2009 74795 60263 (24,081) 5.2

2010 79118 63656 (25,562) 6.3

2011 82231 66213 (26,235) 8.9

KESC

2007 14877 9366 (611) 4.7

2008 15189 10051 (1,132) 5.1

2009 15267 9396 (923) 6.2

2010 15806 9905 (733) 7.1

2011 15433 10072 36 8.3

Total

2007 92694 72040 (25,774) 4.2

2008 92664 72770 (24,681) 4.8

2009 90062 69659 (25,004) 5.3

2010 94924 73561 (26,295) 6.4

2011 97664 76285 (26,199) 8.8

DISCO WISE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY TO COUNTRY

Units

Purchased

Units

Sold/Billed Amount Billed Amount Realized

Recove

ry Ratio Amount Lost

PESCO 13396

8,712

69,065

54,146 78.4%

(14,919)

IESCO 8502

7,674

67,015

62,580 93.4%

(4,435)

GEPCO 7314

6,439

56,111

55,459 98.8%

(652)

LESCO 16995

14,741

138,501

135,872 98.1%

(2,629)

FESCO 9685

8,596

74,289

74,111 99.8%

(178)

MEPCO 12471

10,189

84,637

82,922 98.0%

(1,715)

HESCO 8784

5,814

53,302

31,501 59.1%

(21,801)

QESCO 5084

4,048

31,250

12,810 41.0%

(18,440)

KESC 15433

10,072

107,016

91,559 85.6%

(15,457)

97,664

76,285

681,186

600,960 88.2%

(80,226)

RECOVERIES

SUBSIDIES

Country

Description 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-2010 2010-2011

Tariff Determined by

NEPRA (Rs./kwh) 4.73 5.77 8.63 8.63 8.95

Tariff Notified by GOP

(Rs./kwh) 4.43 4.74 5.52 5.57 7.33

Subsidy Rs./kWh) 0.30 1.02 3.11 3.06 1.62

TRANSITION

GW Units Units Lost PKR GoP Money

PKR in mln

Annual Production 102,484

Units Purchased by CPPA/PEPCO/NTDC 90,481

KESC own production 7,826

CPPs connected to KESC System 2,183

CPPs connected to PEPCO System 1,993

(4,820) 5.62

Units transmitted for distribution 97,664 (4,820) 7.44 (35,884)

Units Purchased by DISCOS 82,231

Units Purchased by KESC 15,433

(21,379) 8.95

Units reached to Identifiable consumers 76,285 (9,766) 8.95 (87,409)

From DISCOS 66,213

From KESC 10,072

(9,193) 7.33 (67,360)

Units against which Bills are received 67,092

From DISCOS 58,474

From KESC 8,617

(35,392)

Transmission, Distribution & Theft Losses (190,653)

Subsidy 102,484 (1.62) (166,291)

Circular Debt (356,943)

WHAT IS AT CONTINUOUSLY AT STAKE??????

Knowledge Session

Samiya Mukhtar

06-03-12

Power Paradigm | Series III of III

POWER PARADIGM

SERIES I | Electricity Generation in Pakistan

SERIES I | Available Capacity

SERIES I | Actual Generation

SERIES I | Sources of Electricity

SERIES I | Cost of Generation

SERIES II | Electricity Consumption in Pakistan

SERIES II | Distribution of Electricity

SERIES II | Sales of Electricity

SERIES II | The Subsidy

SERIES III | Power Sector of Pakistan

SERIES III | Refresher: Demand & Supply Dynamics

SERIES III | Regulatory bodies

SERIES III | Cost Comparison [ Long term perspective vs

Meeting Immediate needs]

SERIES III | Projects in Pipeline

SERIES III | Key Issues

NEPRA TARIFF AS ON 30-06.2011

GOP TARIFF AS ON 30.06.2011 (For All DISCOS)

Source: State of Industry Report +Annual Budgets -FY12 (DISCOS)

Avg Sales Mix%

FC VC

Residential 42.5%

For Sanctioned Load less than 5KW

Upto 50 units 3.2% 1.87

For consumption exceeding 50 Units 0.0%

01-100 17.5% 4.54

101-300 14.5% 6.86

301-700 5.2% 10.65

>700 1.7% 13.29

For Sanctioned Load above 5KW 0.0%

ToU - Peak 0.1% 12.25

ToU - Off-Peak 0.3% 6.7

NEPRA TARIFF AS ON 30-06.2011

GOP TARIFF AS ON 30.06.2011 (For All DISCOS)

Source: State of Industry Report +Annual Budgets -FY12 (DISCOS)

Avg Sales Mix%

FC VC

Commercial 7.1%

For Sanctioned Load less than 5KW 3.8% 13

For Sanctioned Load above 5KW 0.0%

Regular 0.8% 367 8.14

ToU - Peak 0.4% 11.49

ToU - Off-Peak 2.1% 367 6.5

INDUSTRIAL 23.6%

B1 Less than 5KW 1.9% 8.9

B1 TOU (Peak) 0.0% 12.25

B1 TOU (Off-Peak) 0.2% 6.7

B2 -500KW 2.7% 367 7.59

B2 - ToU (Peak) 0.6% 11.08

B2 - ToU (Off-Peak) 3.6% 367 6.5

B2 - ToU (Peak) 1.0% 10.99

B3 - TOU (Off-Peak) 9.0% 356 6.25

B4 -TOU (Peak) at 66KV 0.7% 10.69

B4- TOU (off-Peak) 3.9% 343 5.97

NEPRA TARIFF AS ON 30-06.2011 GOP TARIFF AS ON 30.06.2011 (For All

DISCOS) Source: State of Industry Report +Annual Budgets -FY12 (DISCOS)

Avg Sales Mix% FC VC

BULK SUPPLY 3.1%

C1 a Supply at 400 Volts - less than 5KW 0.0% 9.9

C1 b Supply at 400 Volts - 5KW & above 0.5% 367 8.75

ToU - Peak 0.0% 11.31

ToU - Off Peak 0.1% 367 6.5

C2 Supply at 11KV 1.3% 356 8.65

ToU - Peak 0.1% 10.91

ToU - Off Peak 0.7% 356 6.25

C2 Supply above 11KV 0.2% 343 8.51

ToU - Peak 0.0% 10.51

ToU - Off Peak 0.2% 343 5.87

AGRICULTURE 17.3%

SCARP 1.9% 8.47

AgriculturalTube wells 10.3% 105 5.31

ToU - Peak 0.8% 10.11

ToU - Off Peak 4.0% 200 4.55

PUBLIC LIGHTING 6.9% 12

RESIDENTIAL COLONIES ATT, TO INDUSTRIES 0.2% 11.22

RAILWAY TRACTION 0.0% 9.96

AJK 5.5% 343 4.21

ToU - Peak 0.2% 11.59

ToU - Off Peak 1.0% 343 6.41

POWER PARADIGM

Electricity Demand Vs Supply Electricity Generation Electricity Distribution

Maximum Electricity Demand in the country Intalled Capacity vs Actual Production (MW per hour) DISCO wise consumers (numbers in mln)

2009 2010 2011

2009 2010 2011 %

2009 2010 2011 Hydel 6,555 6,555 6,555 PESCO 2.7 2.9 3.0 14%

Country 21,343.0 21,850.0 22,765.0 Actual 49% 50% 56% IESCO 2.0 2.1 2.1 10%

GEPCO 2.4 2.5 2.6 11%

Thermal 13,539 14,597 16,070 LESCO 3.0 3.2 3.3 15%

Supply/Deficit in Demand & Supply during System Peak Hours (MW) Actual 55% 54% 48% FESCO 2.8 2.9 3.0 13%

MEPCO 3.8 4.1 4.2 19%

Nuclear 462 462 787 HESCO 1.5 1.5 1.5 7%

2009 2010 2011 Nuclear 37% 66% 44% QESCO 0.5 0.5 0.5 2%

Generation Capability 16,040 15,144 15,430 KESC 2.0 2.1 2.1 9%

Demand During Peak Hours 20,314 21,029 21,086 Import 30 31 34 Total 20.7 21.6 22.4 100%

Surplus/Deficit (4,156) (5,547) (5,000) Growth 3.7% 4.7% 3.6%

Total Installed Capacity 20,556 21,614 23,412

2012 2013 2014 Growth 2% 5% 8% Segment wise consumption

Planned Generation Capability 21,746 24,212 25,081 Total Actual Production 10,777 11,368 11,665 Domestic Commercial Industrial Agriculture Public Light Bulk Supply Others Total

Projected Demand Growth Rate (NTDC) 8% 7% 7% Growth -3% 5% 3% LESCO 5,900 1,225 6,036 1,062 96 416 5 14,740 19%

Projected Demand 25,284 27,092 29,032 Actual vs Installed 52% 53% 50% MEPCO 4,982 612 2,302 2,105 24 159 6 10,190 13%

Surplus/Deficit (3,538) (2,880) (3,951) KESC 4,257 1,043 3,447 125 82 955 163 10,072 13%

Total Available Electricity in MWH 10,806 11,399 11,699 PESCO 5,577 542 1,653 375 21 533 11 8,712 11%

Total Available Electricity in Mln Units 94,663 99,856 102,484 FESCO 3,923 499 3,079 848 7 236 6 8,598 11%

IESCO 3,367 896 1,561 90 93 636 1,031 7,674 10%

Power Generation Projects in Pipeline (2013 - 2017) Weighted Average Production Cost during FY11 GEPCO 3,632 429 1,783 319 8 268 1 6,440 8%

HESCO 3,128 386 1,170 783 101 218 27 5,813 8%

No Capacity (MW) Expected Cost Expected Cost/MW Average cost in PKR

% production

WA Production Cost/ Per

Unit

QESCO 464 94 114 3,265 4 107 - 4,048 5%

Total 35,230 5,726 21,145 8,972 436 3,528 1,250 76,287 100%

46% 8% 28% 12% 1% 5% 2% 100%

Public Sector RFO 11.8 35% 4.1

Hydel 12 2,358 96,282 40.8 Gas 3.4 25% 0.9 Transmission & Distribution

Private Sector Hydel 0.2 35% 0.1 GW Units Units Lost PKR GoP Money

Oil Based 8 997 1,151 1.2 HSD 15.4 0% 0.1

Pipeline Quality Gas 1 140 140 1.0 Mixed 11.3 1% 0.1 Annual Production 102,484.00

Dedicated Gas Fields 3 621 780 1.3 Coal 3 0% 0.0

Hydel 16 5,271 10,096 1.9 Nuclear 1 3% 0.0

Units Purchased by

CPPA/PEPCO/NTDC 0.09

Coal 7 1,725 2,536 1.5 Import 4.6 0% 0.0 KESC own production 7,826.00

NAPHTA 2 404 404 1.0 Wind 9.1 0% 0.0 CPPs connected to KESC System 2,183.00

Total 37 9,158 15,107 1.6 5.24

CPPs connected to PEPCO

System 92,474.91

(4,820) 5.62

Cap Charges paid to thermal units 1.82

Units transmitted for

distribution 97,664.00 (4,820) 7.44 (35,884)

Electricity Procurement Price 7.06 Units Purchased by DISCOS 82,231.00

Units Purchased by KESC 15,433.00

(21,379) 8.95

Units reached to Identifiable

consumers 76,285.00 (9,766) 8.95 (87,409)

From DISCOS 66,213.00

From KESC 10,072.00

(9,193) 7.33 (67,360)

Units against which Bills are

received 67,092.16

From DISCOS 58,474.92

From KESC 8,617.24

(35,392)

Total T&D Losses (190,653)

Subsidy 102,484 (1.62) (166,291)

Circular Debt (356,943)

POWER PARADIGM

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