Knowledge Seminar: South African doctoral enrolment, graduation and demographics

February 2012

Graph 1 sets out data on key elements of SA’s high-level knowledgeproduction for the period 1996-2010 expressed as doctoral enrolments, doctoral graduates and research publication units. Average annual changes in these totals are reflected in Graph 2.

2

5164

55286394

77638790

9800 9939

11468

685 761 961 969 1104 1100 1182 1421

5622

5456 59366483 6660

80038353

9748

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Doctoral enrolments Doctoral graduates Research publications

PhD enrolments

Research pubs

PhD graduates

Graph 2 divides Graph 1 growth rates into the period between (a) 1996 and 2002, which covered the period of the 1997 HE White Paper and the 2001 National Plans, and (b) 2004-2010 which covered the introduction and implementation of the new 2003 government funding framework.

3

7.0%

4.5%

5.9%6.0%

4.3%

5.4%

2.4%

6.6%

4.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

1996- 2002 2004- 2010 1996- 2010

Doctoral enrolments Doctoral graduates Research publications

Graph 3 divides the doctoral enrolment totals for 1996-2010 into race groupings. The main change has been in African doctoral enrolments, which increased from 663 in 1996 to 5066 in 2010, when African doctoral enrolments exceeded that of White enrolments for the first time.

4

6831053

1610

2239

2933

35834022

5066

197 256 327 419 529 585 575 681264344 464

619 768 813 774 868

4020 3875 3993

44864861 4819

4568

4853

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

African Coloured Indian White

AfricanWhite

Indian Coloured

Graph 4 shows how the % of doctoral enrolments by race group changed between 1996 to 2010. African doctoral students rose from 13% in 1996 to 33% in 2004, and 44% in 2010.

5

13%

25%

33%41%

44%

78%

62%

55%

49%

42%

9%

13% 12% 10%14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1996 2000 2004 2008 2010

African White Coloured +Indian

AfricanWhite

Coloured+Indian

Graph 5 offers a first picture of the doctoral output efficiency ofSA’s public HE system, based on output ratios which appear in the 2001 National Plan. The National Plan set this as an output norm:

• The ratio between doctoral graduates in a given year and doctoral enrolments should = 20%. So, if 10 000 doctoral students were enrolled in the HE system in year X, then at least 200 of these students should graduate in year X.

• This norm was based on a further target norm that at least 75% of any cohort of students entering doctoral studies for the first time in (say) year Y, should eventually graduate. Calculations had shown that if the cohort output norm was to be achieved, then the 20% ratio of total graduates to total enrolments would have to be met over a period of time.

6

Graph 5 shows that, as far as doctoral outputs are concerned, the Public HE system has failed to meet the National Plan’s efficiency targets. Calculations show that over the period 1996–2002, less than 50% of students entering doctoral programmes in SA will eventually graduate.

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14% 12% 12%

20%

52%

45% 45%

75%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1998- 2002 2002- 2006 2006- 2008 National target

Ratio of graduates to enrolments Cohort graduation equivalent

Graph 6 offers estimates of the effects of inefficiencies in SA’s doctoral programmes. For example, over the period 2005-2010, SA should, on the National Plan’s norms, have produced a total of 12 285 doctoral graduates but in fact produced only 7 711, leaving a “shortfall” of 4 739 graduates (who would have been drop outs from the system).

8

4976

7711

- 2735

7546

12285

- 4739

- 6000 - 4000 - 2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

Actual graduates produced

National Plan target

Total 2005-2010 Total 2000-2004

2000 - 2004

2000 - 2004

2005 - 2010

Shortfall

2000 - 2004

2005 - 2010

2005 - 2010

Doctoral degree cohorts (2001, 2002, 2003): Average dropout & graduation by Race

RaceNew entrants Academic year Year 1 Year 5 *Year 7

Total graduates & dropouts for cohort

African 2117Registered at beginning of year 2117 665 281

Graduated (Cumulative) 26 655 860 860 41%

Dropped out (Cumulative) 606 1017 1257 1257 59%

Coloured 274Registered at beginning of year 274 119 44



Indian 555Registered at beginning of year 555 193 101



White 3040Registered at beginning of year 3040 1034 441



Total 5986Registered at beginning of year 5986 2011 867



• The End of year 7 dropping out numbers also include students that may have registered in future years to complete their studies.

• The End of year 7 dropping out numbers also include students that may have registered in future years to complete their studies.

Source: DHET. 2011, CHET PhD analysis

Source: DHET. 2011, CHET PhD analysis

Doctoral degree cohorts (2001, 2002, 2003): Average dropout & graduation by University Group

New entrants Academic year Year 1 Year 5 *Year 7

Total graduates & dropouts for cohort

High Productive Universities : University of Cape Town,University of Pretoria, Rhodes University, University of Stellenbosch, University of the Witwatersrand

3098 Registered at beginning of year 3098 1230 509


Dropped out (Cumulative) 495 1130 1566 1566 51%Other Universities : University of Fort Hare, University of the Free State, University of Limpopo, North-West University,

University of the Western Cape

978 Registered at beginning of year 978 316 144 Graduated (Cumulative) 10 372 485 485 50%

Dropped out (Cumulative) 210 388 493 493 50%Comprehensive Universities : University of Johannesburg, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, University of South-Africa,

University of Venda, Walter Sisulu University, University of Zululand



Dropped out (Cumulative) 530 869 1030 1030 61%Universities of Technology : Cape Peninsula University of Technology, Central University of Technology, Durban University of Technology, Mangosuthu University of Technology, Tshwane University of Technology, Vaal University of Technology

208 Registered at beginning of year 208 58 27 Graduated (Cumulative) 3 56 78 78 38%


Total




Source: DHET. 2011, CHET PhD analysisSource: DHET. 2011, CHET PhD analysis

Enrolments South African International Total

2007 7 195 2 853 10 0482008 6 959 3 035 9 9942009 7 213 3 316 10 5292010 7 841 3 749 11 590

Graduates South AfricanInternationa

l Total2007 900 374 1 2742008 829 353 1 1822009 908 470 1 3782010 931 489 1 420

Graduates Norwegian International Total2007 789 241 10302008 937 308 12452009 851 297 11482010 858 326 11842011 889 438 1327

It is important to note that the two countries produce almost the same number

of PhD graduates but that South Africa’s population is in the order of 48 million

whilst Norway’s population is 4.8 million

Academic staff with doctoral degrees are a key input for high-level knowledge production is. Permanent academic staff in this category should be the major producers of research outputs, and at an input level the main supervisors of doctoral students. Graph 7 shows how the totals of permanent academic staff with doctoral degrees changed between 1996 and 2010.

12

4647 4658 4561 4572 44855146 5403

5957

13449 1309814184 14673

15423 15809 1593616684

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Doctorate as highest qualification Total permanent

Total permanent

Highest

qualification

PhD

Graph 8 divides public HE institutions into the 3 categories used for national planning purposes, and sub-divides the 11 universities into a group of 6 which produces 60% of the HE system’s total high-level knowledge products and the remaining 5. The groups are:

High productive universities UCT, UKZN, Pretoria, Rhodes, Stellenbosch, Wits

Other universitiesFort Hare, Free State, Limpopo, North West, UWC

Comprehensive universitiesUJ, NMMU, Unisa, Venda, WSU, Zululand

Universities of technologyCape Peninsula, Central, Durban, Mangosuthu, Tshwane, Vaal DUT

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14

Graph 8

45%41%

40%44% 44%

48%

36%36%

27%

35%

38% 40%

29% 29%

28%

28% 29% 28%

5%7% 8%

10%13% 15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

High productive universities Other universities Comprehenives Universities of technology

High productive

Other

Comprehensive

UoT

The low proportions permanent academic staff with doctoral degreesmust have an impact on the numbers of doctoral students which can be enrolled and supervised. Graph 9 shows what the ratios have been between doctoral enrolments and permanent academic staff with doctorates.

A ratio of two doctoral enrolments per permanent academic with a doctorate could be used as an indicator of institutional capacity. Graph 9 shows that the high productive group of universities and the comprehensives had ratios above 2 in 2010, which could be taken to imply that they have reached capacity as far as doctoral enrolments are concerned. Increases in their doctoral enrolments should depend on more academic staff obtain their own doctoral degrees.

The 2:1 norm suggests that the other group of 5 universities and the universities of technology may have spare supervisory capacity, but their ability to deal with this depends on their current financial and efficiency levels.

15

16

Graph 9

1.7

2.22.1 2.1

1.1

2.1

1.7 1.7

1.2

1.81.7

2.1

0.8

1.21.1

1.2

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000 2004 2008 2010


High productive

Other

Comprehensive

UoT

Government’s funding incentives for research outputs are complex because of the 2-year time lag between the completing of an output and the receipt of a funding allocation, and the weightings applied to research outputs.

Graph 10 shows what research funding totals were generated by each output category.

Graph 11 shows what the Rand values can be assigned to research output units.

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18

Graph 10

474 489 505596 652

796

1048

1225

192 228 265343 310

379 414

461

179 202 253 298 282365 375

539

845919

1024

1237 1245

1540

1837

2225

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Publications units Research masters grads Doctoral graduates Total

Total

Pub. units

PhD graduatesResearchM grads

R'millions

19

Graph 11

87

82102

134

66

91110

110

191

251

286

393

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12

Per publication unit Per research masters graduate Per doctoral graduate

Per PhD graduate

Per publication unitPer research Mgrads

R'000

It could be argued that the high Rand values for doctoral graduates should have functioned as strong incentives to institutions to expand these outputs. The data in Graph 12 suggest these financial incentives have not yet affected doctoral graduate growth, which was 3.5% pa between 2000 & 2004, and 3.6% pa between 2005 and 2010.

There are likely to be a number of reasons why doctoral graduate totals have not yet responded to the output funding incentives introduced for the first time in the 2004/5 financial year. One explanation is that only a few universities have been able to benefit from the introduction of government research output incentives. A second explanation is that doctoral processes in SA have been characterised by high levels of inefficiency, as has been seen in Graphs 5 and 6.

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21

Graph 12

4.4%

6.7%

5.8%

3.5%

6.2%

1.5%

4.4%

3.6%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

Publication units Masters graduates:

coursework + research

Research masters

graduates

Doctoral graduates

2000-2004 2005-2010

Graph 13 shows that government output funding can be related to staff capacity. In 2011/12 the high productive university group generated R290 000 in government research funds per permanent academic, which was considerably higher than the averages for the other groupings.

22

135

192215

290

5868

94

130

3946

60 66

8 13 19 25

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12


High productive

Other

Comprehensive

UoT

R'000

Graph 14 relates doctoral graduate funding to permanent academic staff, but also compares this doctoral funding to research publication funding per permanent academic. The graph shows that in 2011/12 the high productive universities group generated R82 000 in doctoral funding per permanent academic, and R126 000 in research publications. The amounts are lower, but similar wide differences can be seen in the other institutional categories.

These lower amounts generated by doctoral graduates could be related to institutional inefficiencies, but also to institutional incentives. Some institutions distribute publication output funds to authors, but few (if any) distribute doctoral graduate funds to supervisors. Academic staff members are therefore likely to gain more direct personal benefits from research publications than from doctoral graduates.

23

24

Graph 14

82

42

5 5

126

61

40

11

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

High productive

universities

Other universities Comprehenives Universities of technology

Doctorates Publications

R'000

Documents

Knowledge Seminar: South African doctoral enrolment, graduation and demographics