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LONDONSCHOOLOFECONOMICSANDPOLITICALSCIENCE
CANDIDATE:K.J. KRAMER
WORDCOUNT:9,962
AdaptingarabicaWeighingscientificandeconomicinfluencesinnationalresponsestoglobal
climatechangeanditsthreattoCoffeaarabica
Abstract
Thispaperexaminestheresponseofnationalgovernmentstoclimatechangethreatsto
Coffeaarabicaproductionandcorrelatesthoseresponsestomacro-economicdataand
scientific studies on coffee’s future suitability in each region. Analysis shows that
countrieswithoutadaptationplansforcoffeearethoseinwhichcoffeeexportsmakea
negligible contribution to total exports. Countries in which coffee makes a more
significantcontributiontototalexportseitherhavegeneraladaptationplansthatinclude
coffee or have coffee-specific adaptation plans. No strong correlations were found
betweenprojectedhectaressuitableforgrowingcoffeeandgovernmentresponse,most
likelyduetothehighuncertaintyandresultingextremevariabilityofthelandarealoss
projections.
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Acknowledgements
Iofferaverysincerethankyoutomydissertationadvisor,Dr.DeclanConwayforhelping
tocorralandguidemyideasduringtheirmanyevolutionsoverthepastseveralmonths.
IwouldalsoliketothankPaulWatkissformeetingwithmeearlyonintheprocess.His
insightandknowledgeofcoffeeadaptationprovidedmewithasolidfoundationtostart
thiswork.
Aspecial thanks to thosewhomade this suchanenrichingyear, including (butbyno
means limited to)my academic advisor, Dr. Michael Mason, for all his guidance; the
captainoftheEPRship,Dr.RichardPerkins,forchartingagreatcourse;andtheentire
cohortofenvironmentalstudentsforbeinganamazingsourceofsupportandfriendship.
Mostofall,Iameternallygratefultomyparents.Ibettheyneverdreamedtheywould
onedayknowthismuchaboutcoffee.
3
ListofAbbreviations
AOPC Arabica-onlyproducingcountries(andBrazil)CDKN ClimateDevelopmentandKnowledgeNetworkCSP Coffee-specificplanFAO FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsFNC FederaciónNacionaldeCafeterosGCC GlobalclimatechangeGDP GrossdomesticproductGIS GeographicinformationsystemGPCC GreaterplancitingcoffeeICA InternationalCoffeeAgreementICO InternationalCoffeeOrganizationIFC InternationalFinanceCorporation,WorldBankGroupIGC InternationalGrowthCentreINCUNFCCC InitialNationalCommunicationundertheUNFCCCIPCC IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeITC InternationalTradeCentreLDC LeastdevelopedcountryMNCC Multi-nationalcoffeecorporationMoAD GovernmentofNepal,MinistryofAgriculturalDevelopmentNAPA NationalAdaptationProgrammeofActionNGO Non-governmentalorganizationNTCB NationalTeaandCoffeeDevelopmentBoard(Nepal)PES PaymentsforecosystemservicesUN UnitedNationsUNFCCC UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeUSAID UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopmentUSD UnitedStatesdollarsUSDA UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureUSDAFAS USDAForeignAgriculturalServiceUSDOC UnitedStatesDepartmentofCommerceYCP YemenCoffeeProgram
4
TableofContentsABSTRACT........................................................................................................................................................1ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................................................................................................................................2LISTOFABBREVIATIONS............................................................................................................................3TABLEOFCONTENTS...................................................................................................................................41INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................................................................62BACKGROUNDANDLITERATUREREVIEW........................................................................................72.1BIOPHYSICALIMPACTSOFCLIMATECHANGEONCOFFEE....................................................................................72.2ADAPTATIONOPTIONSFORCOFFEE........................................................................................................................92.2.1Plantadaptation.................................................................................................................................................92.2.2Locationadaptation.......................................................................................................................................112.2.3Adaptingon-farmpractices........................................................................................................................122.2.4Otheradaptations...........................................................................................................................................12
2.3BARRIERSTOADAPTATIONATTHEFARMLEVEL...............................................................................................132.4IMPLICATIONS...........................................................................................................................................................14
3METHODOLOGY.......................................................................................................................................153.1ECONOMICDATA......................................................................................................................................................153.2PROJECTEDSUITABILITYOFCOFFEE....................................................................................................................163.3PUBLICADAPTATIONPLANS..................................................................................................................................163.4SUMMARY..................................................................................................................................................................17
4RESULTS.....................................................................................................................................................194.1ADAPTATIONPLANS................................................................................................................................................194.2ROLEOFCOFFEEINTHEECONOMY.......................................................................................................................194.2.1Relativeimportanceofcoffeetotheeconomy....................................................................................204.2.2CoffeeintheLDCs............................................................................................................................................21
4.3PROJECTEDAREASOFSUITABILITYIN2050......................................................................................................225DISCUSSION...............................................................................................................................................245.1COFFEEADAPTATIONINNONLDCS......................................................................................................................245.1.1Coffeeadaptationasatool..........................................................................................................................245.1.2Jamaica.................................................................................................................................................................255.1.3Brazil.....................................................................................................................................................................26
5.2COFFEEADAPTATIONINLDCS..............................................................................................................................275.2.1Zambia..................................................................................................................................................................275.2.2Malawi..................................................................................................................................................................285.2.3Ethiopia................................................................................................................................................................285.2.4OpportunitiesinEastAfrica........................................................................................................................295.2.5Opportunitiesoutsideofthetropics........................................................................................................31
5.3UNCERTAINTY...........................................................................................................................................................325.3.1Uncertaintyoftheprojections...................................................................................................................325.3.2Uncertaintyofmarketresponse................................................................................................................35
5.4ASTRATEGYFORWARD...........................................................................................................................................365.4.1Economicconsiderationsandflexible,site-specificadaptations................................................375.4.2Low-risk,no-regretadaptations...............................................................................................................385.4.3Addressingbarriers........................................................................................................................................38
6CONCLUSION.............................................................................................................................................40ANNEXES............................................................................................................................................................IANNEXI.WORKSCITED....................................................................................................................................................IIANNEXII.SUITABILITYSTUDIES.....................................................................................................................................X
5
FiguresandTables
FIGURE1.GLOBALSHAREOFARABICAPRODUCTIONINDIFFERENTCOUNTRIES.......................................19
FIGURE2.EXPORTSOFARABICAFROMLDCCOUNTRIES...............................................................................22
FIGURE3.JAMAICANPRICEPREMIUM...............................................................................................................26
FIGURE4.ARABICAPRODUCTIONINZAMBIA..................................................................................................28
FIGURE5.THEDECLININGSHAREOFCOFFEEASAPERCENTAGEOFBURUNDI’SEXPORTS.......................30
FIGURE6.RANGEOFSUITABILITYPROJECTIONS.............................................................................................32
TABLE1.SUMMARYOFADAPTATIONPLANS....................................................................................................19
TABLE2.TOPTENCOUNTRIESBYCOFFEEPRODUCTIONANDCOFFEEEXPORTS........................................21
TABLE3.DISTRIBUTIONOFTHEIMPORTANCEOFCOFFEEEXPORTS............................................................21
TABLE4.COMPARINGADAPTATIONPLANSANDCOFFEEEXPORTS...............................................................24
6
1Introduction
FromitsoriginsintheshadyEthiopianforests,thecoffeeplanthasa longandstoried
historyofcultivationintropicalclimatesaroundtheworld.Theimportanceofthisplant
and its saga of expansion are well documented. Knowing its critical role, national
governmentshavelongsoughttoprotectthisplant–inpastcenturies,harshpenalties
were imposedonmerchant sailors smuggling seeds, andprohibitionswereplacedon
deliveryofbeanstoforeigncountries.
Today,climatechangethreatenstheplant’shabitat,anditsdisappearancewouldhave
direrepercussionsforthe25milliongrowers,mostofwhomaresmallholderfarmers,
whodependontheplantforsurvival,andtheadditional100millionpeoplearoundthe
worldwhomaketheir living inthegreatercoffee industry.Throughdataanalysisand
reviewofgovernmentalpolicies,scientificstudies,greyliterature,andacademicwork,
this dissertation examines the links between the economic and projected climatic
conditionsofcoffee-producingcountries,andtheadaptationstrategiesthatgovernments
employtoensurethecoffeeplant’scontinuedgrowthinourchangingclimate.
7
2Backgroundandliteraturereview
Coffee is a highly traded global commodity and the secondmost valuable commodity
exported from the developing world (Talbot 2004). From production to brewing, an
estimated125millionpeopleworldwidederivetheirlivelihoodfromcoffee(Bunn2015).
Productioninthe2015/16growingyearwasestimatedat153million60kgbags(USDA
FAS12015)andisprojectedtorisetoalmost156millionbagsin2016/17(USDAFAS
2015)tokeepupwithconsumption,whichisincreasingatarateof2%ayear(Lewinet
al.2004;Perez2016;ICO22016).Thetopfourproducingcountriesintheworld-Brazil,
Vietnam,Colombia,andIndonesia—accountfor65%ofglobalcoffeeproduction(Ovalle-
Riveraetal.2015).Coffeeplaysacriticalroleintheeconomiesofmanydevelopingand
leastdevelopedcountries(LDCs).InUganda,Burundi,Rwanda,andEthiopia,coffeeisthe
mainsourceofforeignexchange(DaMatta&Ramalho2006).Itisestimatedthataround
25 million people globally grow coffee, the vast majority of whom are smallholder
farmers(Ovalle-Riveraetal.2015;DaMatta&Ramalho2006).Forinstance,inEthiopia,
around95%ofcoffeecomesfromsuchgrowers(ICO2015).
Coffeehas twomainspecies,Coffeaarabica (arabica)andCoffeacanephora (robusta).
Roughlytwo-thirdsofcoffeegrownisarabica,withrobustacompromisingtheremainder
(USDA FAS 2016; ICO 2016). Arabica’s higher quality allows it to command a price
premiumon theglobalmarket,generally fetching twice thepriceof robusta (VanDer
Vossenetal.2015).
2.1Biophysicalimpactsofclimatechangeoncoffee
Coffeethrivesinveryspecificclimates.Theplantprefersslopedhillsoffertileredearth
volcanicsoilsordeepsandy loam(Assefaetal.2015).The twospecieshavediffering
temperaturepreferences:arabicapreferstheslightlylowertemperatures(18°C-21°C)
oftropicalhighlands(Davisetal.2012),whilerobustacanbefoundatloweraltitudes
withtemperaturesbetween22°Cand26°C(DaMatta&Ramalho2006).Thesespecific
conditionsmaketheplanthighlysensitivetotheeffectsofclimatechange(Bunnetal.
1UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureForeignAgriculturalService2InternationalCoffeeOrganization
8
2015). Yields in terms of both quantity and quality are subject to variations in
temperature, rainfall, pests, diseases, and extremeweather events (Bunn et al. 2014;
DaMatta&Ramalho2006;Davisetal.2012;Jaramilloetal.2009).Coffeeisgrownatlow
latitudes almost exclusively between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. This is
particularly concerning because this Equatorial band is projected by the
IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC,2014)tobehitrelativelyharderby
globalclimatechange(GCC)thanthehigherlatitudes.
Alreadyinthelatterpartofthe20thcentury,manygrowingregionshadbegunwitnessing
steady temperature increases (Malhi & Wright 2004). While both species are
temperaturesensitive,arabicaismoreaffectedbyariseinmeantemperature(Craparo
etal.2015);themoreheattolerantrobustaismoreaffectedbyincreasedtemperature
variability – specifically, diurnal temperature ranges and intra-seasonal temperature
variations (Bunn et al. 2014). Higher temperatures adversely affect arabica’s growth,
flowering, and fruiting, resulting in lower yields (Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015). These
temperaturesalsoshortentheberries’ripeningtime,affectingquality(Baker&Haggar
2007),andultimatelythepricethefarmerreceivesfortheharvest.
Higher temperatures also increase the incidence and reach of pests and diseases
(Jaramilloetal.2011).Forexample,inastudyontheH.hampeipest(alsoknownasa
berryborer),Jaramilloetal.(2011)foundthatwarmingtemperatureshaveallowedthis
pest’shabitattocreepuptohigheraltitudesonMountKilimanjaroby300minonlyten
years.Itisestimatedthattheberryborerisresponsiblefor$500million3inannuallosses
inEastAfricaalone.Theincidenceofpestsanddiseasessuchastheberryborer,leafrust,
andnematodesisonlyincreasingastemperaturescontinuetorise(ITC42010). Other
GCC-relatedvariablescanalsoaffectcrops.ChangesinrainfallpatternsinNicaraguahave
reportedly ledtoerratic floweringand incompletematurationofcoffeecrops(Ovalle-
Riveraetal.2015).Extremeeventssuchasfloodsorheavyrainfallcancauseerosionof
soil on the sloping lands (Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015). Droughts and frosts also can be
detrimentaltotheplants(Davisetal.2012).
3UnitedStatesdollars4InternationalTradeCentre
9
2.2Adaptationoptionsforcoffee
In the context of farming in a changing climate, human interventions become more
critical.Adaptation–thehumaninput–istheplanningandmanagementpracticesused
tomitigatetheeffectsofclimatechange,allowingforcontinuedproductioninthecontext
of an altered climate.Watkiss (unpub.) compares the studies on future suitability of
indigenouscoffee(Davisetal.2012)topredictionsonmanagedplantations(Bunnetal.
2014).Hewrites,“thedivergenceoftheresults[…]indicatestheeffectthatmanagement
andadaptationofproductionsystemscanhave”(Watkissunpub.).Furthermore,wehave
seenthatcoffeesupply,keepingpacewithdemand,hasgrownabout2%ayear(Bunn
2015);lessthanaquarterofthisgrowthisattributedtoincreasesinlandarea,whilethe
rest is from increases inyield (Bunn2015).Thisgivesweight to the idea thatproper
management practices may be able to offset some of the projected area losses from
climatechange.
Theliteratureoutlinesanumberofpossibleadaptationsforcoffeegrowing,whichthis
dissertationcategorizesas(1)plantadaptation,(2)locationadaptation,(3)adaptingon-
farmpractices,and(4)otheradaptations.
2.2.1Plantadaptation
Asarabicaissusceptibletoclimatechange,therehasbeensomediscussionofswitching
thetypeofcoffeegrowntoamorerobustvariety(suchasrobusta),orevenbreedingnew
varietiesofenhancedcultivars(Hein&Gatzweiler2006).Althoughrobustacanmanage
inhighertemperatures,itisnotentirelyimmunetoGCC,requiringlimitedintra-seasonal
variability (which relegates it to lower latitudes) (Bunn et al. 2014). Robusta’s lower
qualityalsomakesitamarkedlydifferentproduct.Althoughsomeadvancesarebeing
made in techniques to remove the harshness of robusta (Baffes et al. 2005), the
techniqueshavenotyet led, andmaynotever lead, toperfectmarket substitutability
betweenarabicaandrobustaspecies.
New coffee hybrids have the potential to bemore resilient, with lower sensitivity to
warmer and drier climates (Baker & Haggar 2007) and even resistance to pests and
diseases(Schrothetal.2009).Inearly20thcenturyColombia,theFederaciónNacionalde
10
Cafeteros (FNC) encouraged farmers to replace the traditional arabica varietals of
BourbonandTypicawiththemoredensely-plantedCaturravarietal,allowingfarmersto
producemoreonthesameamountof land.ButthedenseplantingmeantthatCaturra
wasmoresusceptibletodisease.TheresponsebyFNC’sresearchinstitutewastodevelop
andpromotetheCastillovarietal,whichismoreresistanttodiseaseandclimatechange
(Owen2015).
Butbreedingnewvarietalshasitsobstacles.Coffeeplantslivedecades,sothetransition
tonewplantsmaybeslow.Farmersmayberesistanttochange,worriedaboutthequality
ofbeanstheywillbeproducingandthepricethebeanswillfetch.IntheFNC’sattemptto
overcomesuchresistancetoCastillo,theyevenwentsofarastomakefalseclaimsthat
thewinningbeans inaprestigiouscoffeecompetitionwereCastillobeans,when later
reportsrevealedtheywerenot(Owen2015;Kaufman2011).Switchingtonewvarietals
isavery long-termadaptationoption,as it takesyears tobreednewplantsandeven
longerforanewvarietal’sacceptanceandwidedispersal(Watkissunpub.).
The adoptionof newvarietals is further complicatedby thediminishing genepool of
arabica.Germplasmcollections(orgenebanks)forcoffeearequiteexpensivetomaintain
astheyrequirelivingplants,andassuch,theyhavefallenintodisrepair(WorldCoffee
Research 2016). Climate change is also threatening these genebanks, and the genetic
resourcestheycontainareseldomshared.Thereare19coffeegenebanksintheworld,
butonlyone5ispartytoaninternationaltreatykeepingitsgeneticresourcesinthepublic
domain.AreviewbyTaye(2010) foundthatEthiopia’sgenebankscontainedbetween
89.9%and99.8%ofarabicageneticdiversity,butthecombinationofclimatechangeand
neglectofthegenebankshavealreadyledtothelossofmanyofthetreesinthecollections
(World Coffee Research 2016). The rapid disappearance of these critical genetic
resourcesinEthiopiaandaroundtheworldthreatensthepotential forbreedingmore
climate-resilientarabicavarietals.
5CentroAgronómicoTropicaldeInvestigaciónyEnseñanzainCostaRica
11
2.2.2Locationadaptation
Migrationofcoffeeplantationsisanotheradaptation.Baker&Haggar(2007)estimate
thatcoffeeplantationswillhavetomigratetohigheraltitudesatarateof150ft(45.72m)
perdecade.Overthepotentially50-year lifeofacoffeeplant, thiscouldmeana750ft
(228.6m)altitudinalshift.Theremaybeopportunitiesforlatitudinalmigrationaswell.
Forthemostpart,latitudinalmigrationswillbelimitedduetotheplant’sneedforlow
temperaturevolatilityanditscriticalneedtoavoidfrost(Bunnetal.2014).
Adaptation through migration has its obstacles as well. Smallholders with limited
financialwherewithalarereluctanttoreplaceexistingtreeswithnewvarietalsbecause
ofthedeclineinproductionduringthethreetofive-yearmaturationprocess.Inaddition,
thelonglifeoftheplantmeansthattreesplantedtodaymustbelocatedinclimatesthat
willbesuitableforcoffeebothnowand20-50yearsfromnow.Somestudiesimplythat
locationadaptationmaybeanimplausibleoption.For instance, Jaramilloetal.(2011)
foundthatEastAfricancountrieswillneedtoshiftproductionfromcurrentelevationsof
1400-1600mto1600-1800mby2050.Withnooverlapinthoseranges,thereisnoclear
pictureofwheretoplantnewtreestoday.
Migrationofplantsmayhavenegativeexternalities,ormightnotbepossibleatall.Asis
the case in Tanzania, new suitable areas could be home to substantial biodiversity
(Craparoetal.2015).Thenewlandmaybeprotectedforests,nationalreserves,orfall
under restrictions such as a watershed protection scheme (Baker & Haggar 2007).
Deforestationofthesevaluableecosystemsisofparticularconcern.Migrationofcoffee
plantations could displace other crops,whichmay have food security implications or
resultinindirectdeforestationasthosecropsaremovedtonewland.InRwanda,coffee
isrelegatedtolessfertilesoilsthathavebeendegradedbyerosionorintensivecropping,
reservingthemorefertilesoilsforstaplefoods(Nzeyimanaetal.2014).Baker&Haggar
(2007) write that opportunities for migrational adaptation may actually be small in
practice. In some places, migration to new land is just not a viable option as higher
altitudes may lack the plant’s preferred soil or other climatic conditions. New areas
simply may not exist or may be more remote and lack necessary infrastructure for
economicallyviableproductionanddeliverytomarkets.
12
2.2.3Adaptingon-farmpractices
One of the most widely suggested adaptations is the use of shade trees on coffee
plantations.Formostofitshistory,coffeehasthrivedundershadedconditions.However,
duringthegreenrevolutionofthemid20thcentury,coffeefarmersadoptedasun-grown
system,hopingtoboostproduction(Baconetal.2012).Returningtoshade-growncoffee
offersamyriadofbenefits,provingtobeaneffectiveadaptationmethod.Studieshave
found that the shade provided can decrease ambient temperatures around the coffee
plantsbyuptofourdegrees(Jaramilloetal.2011).Shadetreesalsoincreasebiodiversity
(Jhaetal.2014;Perfectoetal.1996)andarebeneficialtoarthropodsthatkeepcertain
harmful pests under control. Shade trees aid soil and water conservation and
managementas the trees increaserelativehumidityaround thecoffeeplants,and the
morecomplexrootstructuresreduce landslides(Philpottetal.2008).Comparedwith
monocultures, providing shade by intercropping bananas, macadamia, rubber, or
coconuthasbeenshowntoimprovesoilfertility,carbonpoolsandnitrogen(Zakeetal.
2015;Watkissunpub.),andtheadditionalcroprevenuecanpotentiallyincreasefarmers’
incomesby50%(VanAstenetal.2011).
Forareaswherereducedrainfallorincreasedevaporationwillbeanissue,farmersmay
needtoemploywater-focusedadaptationstrategies.Asveryfewcoffeefarmshaveany
form of irrigation (World Bank 2016), conservation of soil moisture through
“composting, hedgerows, envelope forking (loosening soil without turning), burying
prunings, and mulching” (Watkiss unpub., p.7) will be important. Other on-farm
adaptationsinclude,butarenotlimitedto,properspacingoftheplants(Craparoetal.
2015),addingwindbreaks,andfertilization(Rahnetal.2014).
2.2.4Otheradaptations
Other adaptation options require a broader coordinated or institutional effort. These
strategiesincludeconservationeffortsfocusedoninsectsinvolvedincoffeepollination.
Berecha et al. (2014, p.1) found a correlation between “impoverishment of insect
communities” and adverse effects on the resilience of coffee production. Rahn et al.
13
(2014) suggest reforestation and restoration of degraded and risk-prone siteswhere
possible.
Otherstrategiescouldaddressthefinancialconstraintstypicallyfacedbycoffeegrowers.
Thelargevolatilityinthecoffeemarketmeansthatfarmersdonotknowthepricethey
willreceivefortheircropatharvesttime(Owen2015).Somedirectbuyerswillguarantee
prices, but even those considered “long”buyingagreements areonly for three to five
years(Owen2015).Farmersmaynothaveaccesstocreditmarkets(Bacaetal.2014).
This leads to short-run cost-cutting measures, which may run counter to long-term
adaptationandsustainabilitygoals.Relianceonasinglecropexposesfarmerstoadded
risk,asclimatechangemayincreasetheincidenceofextremeeventsthatadverselyaffect
yieldsononecropmorethanothers.Measurestoincreasefarmersecurityincludecrop
diversification,cropinsurance(Rahnetal.2014),increasingaccesstocreditmarkets,and
modifyingthepaymentstructureforcoffeetoincludesomeorlargerupfrontpayments
orlonger-termcontractswithbuyers.Increasedfinancialsecuritycouldenablefarmers
toadoptlong-term,andoftenmoreeffective,solutions(Borsy&Techel2015).
2.3Barrierstoadaptationatthefarmlevel
Thequantityandqualityofcoffeeyieldsdependuponthevarietalthatisplanted,where
it isplanted,and theadaptationstrategiesemployed tokeepcurrentand future trees
viable.Individualcoffeefarmerscannotbeexpectedtodothisontheirown.Astudyby
the Coffee & Climate Initiative (Borsy & Techel 2015) provided an online adaptation
toolbox(withguidanceandresources)tocoffeefarmersinfourregionsandnotedthe
uptake rates of various adaptive actions. They found that while “farmers frequently
undertakeautonomousadaptations that theyare familiarwithand that are lowcost”
(Borsy&Techel2015:24),varioushurdlesexistthatlimitadoptionofsomeofthemore
effectiveadaptations.Someofthelargestbarrierstoadaptationinclude:
• Uncertainty of benefits:Whilemany farmers in the studywere aware of the
adaptivemeasures,theyhadyettoseeconclusiveevidenceofthebenefits(Borsy
& Techel 2015) and thus were apprehensive to make investments in the
interventions.
14
• Financialrestrictions:Manyfarmerslackthefinancialresourcestomakeeven
smallupfront investments in their farms(Bacaetal.2014).Theremayalsobe
reluctancebycreditorsorinsuranceproviders.Farmersmaylackawarenessor
understandingofavailablefinancialtools(Borsy&Techel2015).
• Lack of coordinated effort: Rural farmers in developing and LDC countries
cannotbeexpectedtoundertakesuitabilitystudiesorcoffeebreedingprograms
on their own. Van Der Vossen et al. (2015) suggest aworld-wide coordinated
breedingprogramisneeded.Thisisnotsomethingthatcanbedoneonthefarm
level.
• Limitedknowledgeofprograms:Lackofawarenessofavailableprogramsmay
also diminish adaptation uptake. Interviewing farmers in Mexico, Baca et al.
(2014,p.8)foundthatfamilies“hadknowledgeofonlyonetothreecoffeesector
or environmental policies, and they did not have active participation in the
applicationoftheselaws.”
2.4Implications
Because coffee is producedmostly on smallholder farms in developing countries and
LDCs, adaptationstrategieshave tremendous implications for livelihoodsandpoverty
reduction (DaMatta&Ramalho2006).Whilechanges insuitablegrowingregionswill
impact the allocation of coffee crops around the tropics,Watkiss (unpub., p.2) notes
“thereisadearthofliteratureprojectingthe[resulting]economicandtradeimpacts.”To
makeanyprojectionsonfutureshifts,onemustlooknotonlyatsuitabilityprojections,
buton theresponsebyproducers.The long lifeof coffee treesmeans thatadaptation
decisionsneedtobemadenoworinthenearfuturedespitethelackofclearguidance.
Adaptationwill be required for coffee production to remain viable inmany areas. As
manycoffeeadaptationsarenotwithintheadaptivecapacityofindividualfarmers,they
willrequiresomeformofinstitutionalsupport.
Thispaper(a)examinestheresponseofnationalgovernmentstoGCCanditsthreatto
coffee production and (b) correlates those responses to macro-economic data and
scientificstudiesoncoffee’sfuturesuitabilityineachregion.Fromthis,wehopetoinfer
howeconomicsandsciencemaybeinformingtheseresponses.
15
3Methodology
Theobjectiveofthisdissertationistofindwhatcorrelations(ifany)existbetweenthe
projectedsuitabilityforcoffee-growingunderGCC,theeconomicimportanceofthecoffee
industry,andpublicclimatechangeadaptationplans inaregion.Thedatacollected is
fromcoffee-producingregionsandfallsintothreecategories:
(1)Economicdata
(2)Projectedsuitabilityofcoffee
(3)Publicadaptationplans
3.1Economicdata6
Macro-leveleconomicdatawasgatheredforselectedcoffeeproducingcountries(total
exports,grossdomesticproduct(GDP),etc.),aswellasmacro-leveldataonthecoffee
industry in each country (coffee production value, coffee exports, etc.)7. From this
informationwecaninfertherelativeimportanceofthecoffeesectortoeachcountry—
eitherbytotalsizeofthesectororbyrelativesizebasedoncoffeeasapercentageofGDP
or coffeeexports as apercentageof total exports.Other illustrativedata (agricultural
employment rates, rural poverty rates, irrigation rates, etc.) were gathered when
available.Asdisaggregateddataoncoffeeexports couldnotbe found,analysis in this
paperisprimarilylimitedtocountriesthatproduceonlythearabicaspeciesofcoffee.
Datasourcesinclude:
• FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)
• InternationalTradeCentre(ITC)
• InternationalCoffeeOrganization(ICO)
• UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureForeignAgriculturalService(USDAFAS)
• UnitedStatesDepartmentofCommerce(USDOC)
• TheWorldBank
6AlldataisinUnitedStatesdollars(USD).7Allnumbersinthisreportareaveragesofyears2011-2015unlessotherwisenoted.
16
3.2Projectedsuitabilityofcoffee
A reviewof the scientific and academic literature on coffee suitability projections for
various regions and countries was completed. Suitability projections are made by
comparingoptimalgrowingconditionsforcoffeeplantswithconditionsthatareexpected
toexistin2050.Theendresultisabinarydesignationof“suitable”or“unsuitable”fora
specific hectare (ha) of land. The change in current suitable hectares and suitable
hectaresin2050givesaprojectedsuitabilitylossforanarea.Althoughtheseprojections
varywidelydependingoneachstudy’smethodologyandthespecificationsofclimatic
andagriculturalvariablesthataretakenintoaccount,theycanprovideageneralideaof
theeffectGCCwillhaveoneachregion’scoffeesector.
While this dissertation looks atmany suitability studies, for data comparison, results
fromSachsetal. (2015)wereused,as thisstudy takes intoaccount,buildsupon,and
refines many notable previous coffee suitability studies. This data is also the most
comprehensivepublicallyavailableinformation,showingnotonlytheoverallpredicted
suitabilitychangeforeachcountry,butalsodisaggregatesthedataintotheamountof
newsuitablearea(increases),suitablearealost(decreases),anddecreasesoccurringon
currentlyharvestedland.Allsuitabilitynumbersinthisdissertationaretakenfromor
calculatedusingdatafromSachsetal.(2015)unlessotherwisenoted.
3.3Publicadaptationplans
Governmentclimateadaptationplansweregatheredandsorted into threecategories.
Any document containing specific plans for coffee adaptation was labeled a “coffee-
specificplan”(CSP).Plansforgeneralagriculturaladaptationthatmentionedorincluded
coffee, butdidnotnotewhatwouldbedone specifically for coffee,were labeled as a
“greaterplancitingcoffee”(GPCC).Whennomentionofcoffeecouldbefoundinastate-
relatedplan,suchcountrywasplacedinthecategory“nomention.”
Muchadaptationwork isbeingdonebyprivateactors;a termthatcan includemulti-
nationalcoffeecorporations(MNCCs),farmingcooperatives,orindividualfarmers.There
isasignificantamountbeingdonebythecivilsectoraswell,includingnon-governmental
17
organizations (NGOs), charities, and academia. These actors do not always act
independentlyofeachother.Infact,public-privatepartnershipsarequitecommon.
Despitethefactthatalargepartofcoffeeadaptationworkisbeingdonebytheprivate
sector,thisdissertationexaminesonlypublic(state-sponsored,endorsed,orsupported)
adaptationstrategies.Thiswasdone for tworeasons.The first isaboutreliabilityand
accessibilityofdata.ItisunclearhowmuchpublicinformationonworkdonebyMNCCs,
suchasStarbucksandNescafé,isformarketingandpublicrelations.Meaningfuladaptive
practicesortechnologymightbetradesecretskeptoutofpublicdocuments.Withrespect
tofarmersandcooperatives,itwouldbelogisticallyimpossibletointerviewandgather
datafromarepresentativesamplearoundtheworldinatimelymanner.
Thesecondreasonforomittingprivateactorsisthedifferinginterestsbyvariousactors.
Farmersandlocalcooperativeshaveamuchlargerstakeintheirpersonalfarmandthe
farmsinthecooperativethantheydointheeconomyasawhole.Infact,classiceconomics
woulddictatethatascoffeebecomesmorescarce,thevalueofeverybagproducedshould
goup(Nelsonetal.2014).MNCCsaremostlyconcernedaboutproductivityintheshort-
run.MNCCsgenerallydonotgrowcoffeethemselves,butratherbuytheircoffee(directly
or indirectly) fromsmallholder farmersonyearlyorshort-termcontracts.MNCCsare
lessconcernedwithlong-termproductivityofanyparticularareabecausetheycaneasily
buy coffee elsewhere in theworld as suitable growing areas change.MNCCs are also
concernedwithgettingthelowestpriceforacertainqualityofcoffeeandnotasmuch
aboutthewelfareofthosewhogrowit.Governments,ontheotherhand,havetothinkon
alongerandbroaderscaleforthewelfareoftheircitizens.
3.4Summary
Thisdatawasanalyzedforcorrelationsbetweenpoint(3)(publicadaptationplans)and
point (1) (economicdata) and also correlationsbetweenpoint (3) andpoint (2) (the
projectedsuitabilityofcoffee).Duetothelackofadequatedataoncoffeedisaggregated
betweenarabicaandrobusta,thispaperexaminesthose29countrieswhereproduction
ofarabicaaccountsfor95%ormoreoftotalcoffeeproduction.Inaddition,becauseofits
industrydominance,BrazilisincludedeventhoughArabicaaccountsforonly71%(USDA
18
FAS2016)of its totalcoffeeproduction,bringing the totalnumberofcountries to30.
These countries will collectively be referred to as arabica-only producing countries
(AOPCs).
19
4Results
4.1Adaptationplans
ThefollowingisasummaryofadaptationplansfortheAOPCs.Theseplanswereplaced
intothreecategories:
Allcountries LDC nonLDC
Coffee-specificplans(CSP) 14 7 7
Greaterplancitingcoffee(GPCC) 8 -- 8
Nomentionofcoffeeinanyadaptationplan 8 2 6
Table1.Summaryofadaptationplans.
Planspecificswillbeexaminedin“Discussion”section.
4.2Roleofcoffeeintheeconomy
Figure1.GlobalshareofarabicaproductionindifferentcountriesDatasources:ICO,USDAFAS
0
50
100
1963 1989 2015
Production(1000s60kgbags)
Brazil Colombia Ethiopia Honduras Peru LDC nonLDC
20
Onaglobalscale,thelong-termcoffeeproductionandconsumptiontrendsareincreasing
at a fairly steady pace of 2% a year (ICO 2016). This consistent increase in coffee
consumptionresultsfromnewdemandindevelopedcountriesaswellasnewlyemerging
demandincountriesfromthedevelopingworld.Bunn(2015,p.150)calculatedthatthe
“areanecessarytomeetfuturecoffeedemandwilldoubleinthefuture.”
4.2.1Relativeimportanceofcoffeetotheeconomy
Coffee’s importance to a nation’s economy varies by country. The coffee sector’s
contributiontonationalwelfarecanbemeasuredinavarietyofways,suchasthenumber
ofpeopleemployedorthetotalproduction.Moreover,thereachofthecoffeesectorinan
economygoesbeyondthosewhofarmit.Forinstance,inCostaRica,foreveryoneofthe
50,000 coffee farmers, there are seven more direct or indirect beneficiaries (Quirós
2013).
Someofthetoparabica-producingcountriesintheworldalsohappentohavequitelarge
economies.Sowhilethesectormightaffectmoretotalpeopleinthesecountries,itaffects
ahigherproportionofthepopulationinsmallereconomiessuchasBurundiandRwanda.
Analysis of the data found that the majority of AOPCs exported over half of their
production. One-third of the countries exported over 90%. As this paper looks at
national-leveladaptationplans,andasexportscanbeviewedasacountry-levelsource
ofincome,thisanalysischosetouseacountry’scoffeeexportsasapercentageofitstotal
exportsastheparametertocontrolforpopulationandeconomysizewhencomparing
countries.
21
Table2.Toptencountriesbycoffeeproductionandcoffeeexports
Top10byproduction
Production(1000s
60kgbags)
Arabicaasa%ofallexports
Top10by%ofexports
Production(1000s
60kgbags)
Arabicaasa%ofallexports
Brazil 38,400 1.51%1 Burundi 205 23.14%
Colombia 11,311 3.58% Honduras 5,105 16.66%
Ethiopia 6,428 16.57% Ethiopia 6,428 16.57%
Honduras 5,105 16.66% Nicaragua 2,025 9.56%
Peru 4,030 1.94% Rwanda 254 6.31%
Mexico 3,516 0.14% Guatemala 3.360 6.28%
Guatemala 3,360 6.28% ElSalvador 835 4.17%
Nicaragua 2,025 9.56% Colombia 11,311 3.58%
China 1,734 0.01% PapuaNewGuinea 880 3.23%
India 1,631 0.04%1 CostaRica 1,540 2.28%
Datasources:ITC,USDAFAS,WorldBank,andowncalculations1Duetolackofdisaggregatedexportdata,exportpercentageswereestimated.
Fromthecoffeeexportdata,threebroadcategoriesemerge:
Table3.Distributionoftheimportanceofcoffeeexports.
Arabicaexportsas%ofallexports
Allcountries LDC nonLDC
HighContribution >3.0% 9 31 6
SomeContribution 0.1%-3.0% 11 42 7
NegligibleContribution <0.1% 10 23 8
Datasources:ITC,WorldBank1Burundi,Ethiopia,Rwanda2Haiti,Malawi,Timor-Leste,Yemen3Nepal,Zambia
4.2.2CoffeeintheLDCs
Coffee has “some” or “high” importance to exports in all LDCs other than Nepal and
Zambia. Taye (2010, p.1) points out that despite coffee’s “central role in the national
economies”oftheseAfricancountries,coffeeexportshavedeclinedinseveralofthese
countries (notably Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) due to, among other things,
22
deficienciesinpolicy(particularlyasitrelatestoavailabilityoffinancialtools)andlack
ofaccesstoimprovedtechnologies.
Figure2.ExportsofarabicafromLDCcountriesDatasource:ICO
4.3Projectedareasofsuitabilityin2050
Inthisanalysis,suitabilityreferstotheareaoflandinhectaresthatwillbesuitablefor
growingcoffeeintheyear2050.ModelsbyOvalle-Riveraetal.(2015),Bunnetal.(2014),
Sachs et al. (2015), and others show an array of regional loss projections.While the
impactofGCCisdifficulttoassessandpredict,andthedynamicnatureofGCCcreates
vastlydifferentconclusionsamongstudies,almostallhaveprojectedaggregateglobal
lossofsuitableareatobeapproximately50%.
TheresultsfromSachsetal.(2015)showalmostacrosstheboarddecreasesinsuitable
areaforarabicaproduction.Currently,187.6millionhaoflandaresuitableforarabica
cultivation,ofwhichonly10millionhaarecurrentlyusedforcoffeeproduction.While
climatechangewillopenupover27millionhaofnewsuitablearea,thesegainsarenot
0
2
4
1994 2001 2008 2015
Exports(millions60kgbags) Ethiopia
Timor-Leste
Zambia
Nepal
Malawi
Haiti
Zimbabwe
Yemen
Rwanda
Burundi
23
enough to offset the 132 million ha that will be lost. Globally, suitable hectares will
decreaseby55.9%by2050.Ifwenarrowthefocustoincludeonlyareacurrentlyunder
coffeecultivation,thestudyfindsthat24.3%ofthecurrentlyharvested10millionhawill
nolongerbesuitableforcoffeeproductionin2050.
LatinAmerica(Schrothetal.2009),Brazil,andSouthEastAsia(Bunn2015)areprojected
tohavethelargestoveralllossesofsuitability.OfAOPCs,Mexico,Ethiopia,andColombia
eachareprojectedtolosesuitabilityonapproximately150,000hectaresofcurrently
harvestedarea.
Somestudies findareaswheretheGCC impactoncoffeewillberelatively lesssevere.
Bunnetal.(2015)findthatEastAfricanandPacificIslandcountrieswillexperiencethe
smallest impact (10%-20% loss),while thehighlandsofEthiopia,Uganda,Kenya, and
somepartsofRwandamayevengainnewareasofsuitability.ThestudybyOvalle-Rivera
etal.(2015)agreeswiththefindingsonEastAfrica,andaddsPapuaNewGuineatothe
listofleastaffectedcountries.Therearealsoareasofpossiblepositivechangeinsouthern
Brazil and higher altitudes in Latin America, Indonesia, andMadagascar (Bunn et al.
2014;Schrothetal.2014).
The changing climatewill allow small pockets of suitability to emerge outside of the
tropics. Sachs et al. (2015) find future suitable areas in Bhutan, Spain, and Lesotho,
previouslyunsuitableforarabicaproduction.Nepal,situatedafewdegreesnorthofthe
TropicofCancer,hasalreadybeengrowingcoffeeforafewdecades.
24
5Discussion
The clearest, andperhapsmost intuitive, trend in thisdata emergeswhen comparing
economicimportanceofcoffeebasedonexportswiththetypesofplanscountrieshave
forthefutureofthecoffeesector.WiththeexceptionofMalawi,allcountrieswherecoffee
has“some”or“high”contributionstoexportshaveCSPsorGPCCs.
Table4.Comparingadaptationplansandcoffeeexports.
Arabicacontributiontoexports
CSPLDCnonLDC
GPCCLDCnonLDC
NoMentionLDCnonLDC
High BurundiEthiopiaRwanda
ColombiaHondurasNicaragua
ElSalvadorGuatemalaPapuaNewGuinea
Some HaitiTimor-LesteYemen
CostaRicaJamaicaBrazil
DominicanRep.MexicoKenyaPeru
Malawi
Negligible Nepal Panama Bolivia Zambia ChinaCubaParaguayVenezuelaUSAZimbabwe
With the exception of Nepal, Bolivia, and Panama, no country where arabica has a
negligiblecontributiontoexportshasacoffeeadaptationplan.
5.1CoffeeadaptationinnonLDCs
InthenonLDCs,15of21countrieshavesomeformofcoffeeadaptationplan,although
thestrategiesusedandmotivationsforadoptingplansvaried.
5.1.1Coffeeadaptationasatool
OfthenonLDCs,fourplansstoodoutwherecoffeeadaptationwasactuallyameansto
achieveanothergoal.InBolivia,thegovernmentalongwiththeUnitedNationsOfficeon
25
DrugsandCrime (2010) includedcoffeeagroforestryaspartofa$3.9millionplan to
inhibit the expansion of coca monocultures. The Dominican Republic’s Ministry of
EnvironmentalongwithUnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID)is
pilotingapayments-for-ecosystem-services(PES)schemeofferingfarmers$50-$70per
hatoshadetheircoffeecrops(IBPInc.2014)withthegoalofprotectingdownstream
waterquality.CostaRica’scoffeeadaptationplan(theLowCarbonCoffeeProject)ispart
ofthecountry’splantoachievenationalcarbonneutralityby2021(Quirós2013).The
UnitedStates—whosecoffeeexportsarenegligible,buthascoffeeimportsexceeding$7
billion a year (USDA2012)—has focusedmore on coffee adaptation abroad (through
USAID)ratherthanwithinitsownborders.
5.1.2Jamaica
Jamaica’sbrandingandmarketingoftheirBlueMountainCoffee,whilenotimplemented
for climate reasons, has had indirect implications for their ability to adapt. Jamaica’s
productdifferentiationallowsthemtogainamassivepremiumovertheworldaverage.
Thisincreasedprice,inturn,allowsmoreextensiveadaptationstobecomeeconomically
viable.Thisbeanpremiumapproachcouldbeusedasanindirect,low-riskstrategyfor
othercountriestoemulate.
26
Figure3.Jamaicanpricepremium.Datasource:ICO
Jamaicahasalsodemonstratedthat,giventheeconomicincentivesprovidedbypremium
pricing, relocation adaptation can gain acceptance by growers and be viable. In the
interestofprotectingitsBlueMountainCoffee,Jamaicaisimplementingplanstomigrate
coffeefarmsfartherupthemountain(IFC82015).
5.1.3Brazil
While Brazil is a producer of both arabica and robusta, a discussion of the future of
arabicaunderGCCmustincludeananalysisofthisindustrygiant.Producing43%ofthe
world’sarabica,aripplefromBrazilcreateswavesintheglobalmarket.
Brazil is projected to lose suitability in almost 35% of its currently harvested area,
meaningover730,000haofcoffeeproductionareawillnolongerbeclimaticallysuitable
forgrowingarabicawithoutintervention.TheprojectedlostareainBrazilisalmostequal
8InternationalFinanceCorporation,WorldBankGroup
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
1990 1997 2004 2011
Pricepaidtogrowersperpound(USD)
Jamaica World Caribbean
27
totheentirecurrentlyharvestedareaoftheninearabica-onlyproducingLDCs.Thisloss
willmeanproductionwillhavetoincreaseorintensifyelsewhere(eitherinotherregions
ofBrazilorothercountries).
With the resources of a large country, Brazil’s government is responding with a
comprehensive coffee adaptation strategy. Among other things, they are analyzing
climate,developing crops, andproviding financing to farmers.With thismulti-faceted
approach, Brazil seems confident that they can maintain and even increase their
production;theyprojectanincreasefrom45millionbagsayearto55millioninthenext
tenyears(MaraGaribetal.2015).
5.2CoffeeadaptationinLDCs
Coffee’seconomicimportanceandfuturesuitabilityvarywidelyamongLDCs.Yetallbut
two of the countries (Zambia and Malawi) have plans. In most countries, coffee is
predominantlygrownonsmallholderfarms.MalawiandZambiaaretheexceptions;most
oftheirproductionoccursonlargerestates(ICO2015).
5.2.1Zambia
Chapter228oftheLawsofZambia(1994)isalsoknownasTheCoffeeAct.This25-page
statute,amongotherthings,dictatestheoperationsofthecoffeeindustry,establishesthe
Coffee Board of Zambia, and allocates funds for coffee research. When the law was
enacted in 1994, coffee production was on the rise. Zambia’s production has since
declinedfromapeakof120,000bagsin2003toonly27,000bagsin2010(lastavailable
datafromUSDAFAS),asfarmersandlargecoffeeestateshavebegunabandoningthecrop
duetodecliningyieldsandtheinabilitytosecureadequatefinancing(IGC92012).Now,
Zambiaisarelativelysmallproducerofarabica,averagingabout6,00060kgbagsayear,
accountingfor0.02%ofitsoverallexports.
9InternationalGrowthCentre
28
Figure4.ArabicaproductioninZambia.Datasource:USDAFAS
5.2.2Malawi
Althoughagriculture(mostlycorn)compromises70%ofMalawi’seconomy,coffeeonly
accounts for 0.32% of exports. With persistent droughts hitting the country, the
government’s focus is not on coffee, but on more general agricultural adaptation
strategies;helpingfarmerssignupforcropinsurance,promotingmoredrought-resistant
crops and seeds, advocating water-conserving farming practices, and disseminating
informationonoptimalplantingtimes(Ludden2014).Coffeemayalsonotbeapriority
due to the country’s very low suitability loss projection of only 1.10% of currently
harvestedarea.
5.2.3Ethiopia
AlthoughEthiopiaalsohassufferedfrompersistentdroughts, it is takingtheopposite
approachofMalawi. It is investingheavily incoffee,hoping to increaseproductionby
45%throughincentivesandsupportforfarmers(Norton2016)andbystreamliningthe
governanceandpoliciesof the sector (Coffee&Cocoa International2015).Again, the
0
60
120
1967 1988 2009
Production(1000s60kgbags)
29
contextineachcountrymightexplainthedifferenceinaction.Coffeehasamuchstronger
economicandculturalsignificanceinEthiopia—itis,afterall,thebirthplaceofthebean.
Notonlyisitoneofthelargestexporters,butin-countrydemandisunparalleledfora
developingcountry—consumingaroundhalfoftheircrop(Stanculescuetal.2011).With
nearlyone-fifthofthepopulationinvolvedinthecoffeeindustry(FairtradeFoundation
2012),Ethiopiahasaveryvestedinterestinkeepingthesectoralive.
5.2.4OpportunitiesinEastAfrica
TheglobalreductionincoffeesuitabilitycouldpotentiallybenefitcountriesinEastAfrica.
Coffee farming in this region currently yields fewerkilogramsperhectare thanother
partsof theworld.This isbecause the costof inputs to increaseyieldsperhectare is
greater than the cost of simply expanding the amount of land under cultivation (ICO
2015).Withsuitable landgrowingmorescarce, the increasedpricescould incentivize
farmers’intensificationpracticesonthecurrentlyharvestedland.Thecurrentlowyields
perhectaremeanthatlandintensificationwillbelessexpensiveinEastAfricancountries,
asinputswillyieldlargermarginalreturnsthaninotherpartsoftheworld.
Malawi,forexample,currentlyaveragesyieldsof182kgperha.ThisiswellbelowtheEast
Africanaverageofaround400kgperha(ICO2015).Coffeeinthisregionhasthepotential
ofproducing800kg,1000kgorevenmorewithpropermanagement.AsMalawi’scurrent
coffeefarmsareprojectedtolosesuchlittlesuitability,investmentinthesefarmscould
bequitebeneficial.
EastAfricamightalsofindanopportunityinexpandingcoffeetonewlands.Analysisby
Bunnetal.(2014)foundthatthenewsuitablelandsthatwillopenupinEastAfricaare
forthemostpartnotcurrentlyforested.Developmentofagroforestryandintercropped
systemsonthislandhasthepotentialtoexpandcoffeewhilebringingaddedco-benefits
ofincreasedfoodsecurityandcarbonsinks.
Finally, other East African countries could follow the bean differentiation model of
JamaicaandEthiopia,thelargestproducerinEastAfrica.AsTaye(2010,p.5)notes,with
30
properfunding,thesecountriescan“excelatthesustainablesupplyofsuperiorquality
coffeestoglobalcustomers.”
5.2.4.1Burundi
Burundioffersoneofthemostdramaticexamplesofacountrylesseningitsdependence
on a single industry, inadvertently adapting toGCC by lessening its dependence on a
climate-sensitive crop. Since the turn of the century, coffee exports have remained
relativelystable.Yet,itscoffeeexportsasapercentageofallexportshavedeclinedfrom
peakingatover50%toonly12.5%in2013.
Figure5.ThedecliningshareofcoffeeasapercentageofBurundi’sexports. Datasources:ICO,ITC,WorldBank
Despite its decreasing share, coffee still accounts for an enormous part of Burundi’s
exports. Consequently, with climate change threatening to make a quarter of the
currentlyproducinglandunviableby2050,thecountry(alongwiththeWorldBank)has
developedaCSP,theSustainableCoffeeLandscapeProject(Agostini2016)topilotland
and water management practices through a combination of financial, technical, and
materialassistanceaswellasconservationactivities.
0%
30%
60%
$0
$150
$300
2001 2007 2013
Valueofexports(m
illionsUSD)
CoffeeExports TotalExports CoffeeasaPercentageofExports
31
5.2.5Opportunitiesoutsideofthetropics
While latitudinal shifts in suitability are limiteddue to coffee’s temperamentalneeds,
there are a few pockets that might become suitable in the future, including Bhutan,
Lesotho,andFlorida,UnitedStates.SuitablelandhasalreadyemergedinNepal,andthe
governmentnowviewscoffeecultivationasaviableeconomicengine.
5.2.5.1Nepal
Nepal, locatedafewdegreesnorthoftheTropicofCancer, isaninterestingcaseofan
areathatisnewtoproduction,havingreceiveditsfirstseedsfromMyanmarinthe1970s
(NTCDB10 2015). While production was attempted in the subsequent decades, the
practicewasabandonedbymany.FromtheFNCCI/AEC11(2006,p.3):
Themajorcomplaintsforthiswere,• Lackoftechnicalknow-howoncoffeefarming.• Severeattackbystemborerandfailuretocontrolit.• Lackofpriceinformation,adequatemarketingsystemand
institutionalinfrastructures.
Recognizing coffee’s “high potential to export and earn foreign currency” and
“[contribution]totheimprovementofrurallivelihoods”(MoAD12&NTCDB2014,pp.2–
6), the governmenthasworked to increase coffeeproduction in the countrywith the
formation of the National Tea and Coffee Development Board (NTCDB) in 1993,
partneringwiththeprivatesectorandNGOsin2006ontheCoffeePromotionProgram,
andin2014undertakingameticulouscountry-widestudyofcurrentandpotentialnew
areasforfarms(MoAD&NTCDB2014).
Optimistically,thegovernmentisworkingtoaddressthebarrierstoadaptationcitedby
farmers,byprovidingthemwithtechnicalandfinancialassistance,andpromotingwin-
winadaptationslikebanana-coffeeintercropping(Ranjitkaretal.2015).WhiletheCoffee
DatabaseinNepalpresentsdetailedmapsofpotentialareasfornewcoffeeplantations,
the report acknowledges that these are based only on two factors (altitude and
10NationalTeaandCoffeeDevelopmentBoard11FederationofNepaleseChambersofCommerceandIndustryAgroEnterpriseCenter12GovernmentofNepalMinistryofAgriculturalDevelopment
32
availabilityoftheland)andignoreothervariables(soil,rainfall,temperature,andaccess
toinfrastructure)thatarerequiredforviableplantations.
5.3Uncertainty
InassessingandprojectingGCC,uncertainty isahoveringspecter, lurking inboththe
suitabilityprojectionsandinthemarketresponsetochangingconditions.
5.3.1Uncertaintyoftheprojections
The chart below demonstrates the wide range of land suitability projections for the
individualAOPCs.
Figure6.Rangeofsuitabilityprojections.Verticalbarsshowtherangeofresultsfromafewofthedifferentstudiesofprojectedchangeinsuitableareas.Note:theseprojectionsareforchangestototalsuitableland,notprojectionsforchangesoncurrentlyharvestedland.Datasources:Sachsetal.(2015);Ovalle-Riveraetal.(2015);Bunnetal.(2014);Bunnetal.(2015);Bunn(2015)
Countriesknowthatclimatechangewillmostlikelynothaveapositiveimpactoncoffee.
So thosewith a stake in coffee have plans. Since the suitability data is uncertain, the
predictionsaretakenmoreasaqualitativemeasure(dictatinggeneralloss)ratherthan
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
ZWE
JAM
PRY
CUB
VEN
NIC HTI
SLV
PAN
TLS
MEX
HND
BRA
PER
CRI
GTM
YEM
MWI
BOL
COL
KEN
ZMB
BDI
PNG
DOM
NPL
ETH
RWA
CHN
USA
Averageofsuitabilityprojections
33
astrictquantitativeandgeospatialroadmap.Underthisuncertainty,actionsarejustified
ineconomictermsratherthanwithscientificpredictions.
Suitability projections are plagued with uncertainty. There is high variability in the
predictions,evenforthesameregion.Itisfurtherconvolutedasmostoftheseprojections
talkaboutsuitability intermsofhectaresof landthatwillmost likelybeconduciveto
coffee growth. It must be noted that the suitability studies’ binary designation of
“suitable”or“unsuitable”doesnotspeaktothequalityorquantityoftheharvestgrown
oneachofthosehectaresofland.Landdesignated“suitable”maybeonthemarginwhere
thereispotentialforyieldstobenegativelyaffected.Forthisreason,even“suitable”lands
mayrequiresomeadaptiveactionstoremaineconomicallyviableunderGCC.Conversely,
theremaybe“unsuitable”landthatcouldbecomeviablewithproperadaptations(Bunn
etal.2015).
Studies cannot possibly account for all variables. Most projections for future coffee
suitability use some formof geographic information system (GIS) to analyze climate-
relatedvariables(likeweather,pests,altitude, temperature,etc.)andgenerallydonot
factorinthehumanresponseandabilitytorecouporoffsetthelostsuitableareathrough
managementpracticesandtechniques(i.e.,adaptationmethods).Theseresultsalsoonly
predicthowmuchlandwillbeavailable,butdonotpredicthowproductivethatlandwill
be.
Countries cannot base plans around suitability because GCC is so unpredictable. If
countriesweretobasetheiradaptationplanssolelyaroundavague,uncertainsuitability
projection,theyruntheriskofbeingwrong.
5.3.1.1Yemen
Climateprojections indicate thatrainfall inYemencouldrangeanywhere froma45%
reduction to a 46% increase relative to current levels (YCP13 2012). In light of this
tremendousuncertainty,Yemenhasfollowedaprecautionarypathtoupgradeandfortify
itswaterinfrastructure.FromtheUSAID’sYemenCoffeeProgram(YCP2012):
13YemenCoffeeProgram
34
Theoverall productionpotential is limitedprimarilyby lackof regularwater supply and secondarily by poor cultivation and resourcemanagement practices. Yet, there is certainly room for a significantincreaseinproductionvolumes.However,anyincreaseswillhavetocomefrom more intensive and— importantly—more resource-efficientmethodsandnotfromusingmorewaterormoreland.
Yemen’sfive-yearagriculturalplanlaysoutspecificstrategiesandallocatesfundingfor
coffee plantation development (via improving production methods and marketing
efficiency),climatechangeawareness,andgovernmentpilotprojectsoncoffeedisease
andpest-control(Giovannucci2005;YCP2012).Yemenadoptedthisapproachinhopes
ofdoublingcoffeeproductioninfiveyears,andplanstocontinueproductionregardless
ofclimateoutcomes(Al-Arashi2013).
5.3.1.2Tanzania
Tanzaniaproducesbotharabicaandrobustacoffeeandwasthereforeomittedfromthe
greateranalysisinthispaper.However,itscourseofactionregardingcoffeeadaptation
under known uncertainty provides a contrast to the path taken by Yemen. Coffee is
Tanzania’s most important export crop (Borsy & Techel 2015). While studies have
projecteddecreasesof25%(Bunnetal.2014)and22%(Sachsetal.2015)insuitable
area,theTanzaniangovernmentexpectsthataslongasclimatechangestayswithin2°C14,
theresultingincreasesinrainfallwillincreasecoffeeyieldsby17%(NAPA152007).While
the official communications acknowledge that (quite possible) warming above 2°C
changewouldrequireirrigation,waterconservationpractices,andthedevelopmentof
drought and disease resistant coffee to avoid significant losses, the government is
charting a path using the more optimistic scenario. From their Initial National
Communication under theUnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(INCUNFCCC)(2003,p.47):
Vulnerability: […] Simple linear regressionmodels showed that coffeeproduction yields are likely to increase as long as standard agronomicpracticesarefollowed.
14Abovepre-industriallevels15TheUnitedRepublicofTanzania’sNaptionalAdaptationProgrammeofAction
35
AdaptationMeasure:Followstandardagronomicpractices.
Rather than plan formultiple scenarios, Tanzania is planning for a 2°C changewhile
understandingwhatmightbenecessaryinaworseclimatescenario.Inthemeantime,to
better equip themselves for making informed judgments in the future, they are
developingbettertoolsandmodelstoassessGCCimpactsontheircorecropsofcoffee,
maize,andcotton(INCUNFCCC2003;NAPA2007).
5.3.2Uncertaintyofmarketresponse
Inadditiontouncertaintyinsuitabilityprojections,thereisalsouncertaintyintheextent
towhichthemarketwillrespond.Studieshaveshownreductioninsuitabilitywillnot
haveaone-for-oneeffectonproduction(Nelsonetal.2014).Theendresultonproduction
willbeinfluencedbyotherfactorssuchas“markets,socialandculturalpreferences,and
policies”(Läderachetal.2011,p.720).Lewinetal.(2004)foundthedemandforcoffeeto
befairlyinelastic,meaningthatascoffeebecomesmorescarce,theresultwillbemore
pronouncedinpriceincreasethanreductionsinconsumption.Fromthe1960sto1989,
market regulation from the International Coffee Agreement (ICA) kept coffee prices
artificially high. After the ICA’s abandonment in 1989, coffee prices dropped, causing
productionshiftsaroundtheworld,includingareductioninproductioninmanyLDCs.
WithpricessettorisefromGCC,manylandsthatbecameuneconomictoharvestafterthe
ICAcollapsemightbecomeviableonceagain.
Risingpricesinthefuturewillspuraresponsebyactorsonthesupplyside.Nelsonetal.
(2014)lookedattheagriculturesector’sresponsetobiophysicalshocksandpredicted
thatthebiophysicaleffectofa17%declineinsuitabilitywouldactuallyequatetoa2%
declineinoverallproductionduetotheeconomiceffects—withproducersrespondingto
thepricebyintensifyingproductionorincreasingacreagedevotedtothecrop.Wedonot
knowhowthiswilltranslateintothecoffeesector.Thenotoriouslyhighpricevolatility
of the coffee market may be a large inhibitor of adaptation when coupled with the
perennial nature of the crop, the long time from planting to harvest, and large
investmentsneededformanyadaptations.
36
The decrease in suitable landmay leadmore farmers to adopt a varietal that can be
plantedmoredenselyliketheCaturra,whichhasthedrawbackofbeingmoresusceptible
to pests and disease, especially as GCC increases their prevalence. Perhaps farms in
cooler areasmay revert to a sun-growing system, forgoing the internal and external
benefits of agroforestry such as increasing biodiversity and allowing farms to better
functionascarbonsinks.
5.3.2.1Rwanda
Rwanda’s plan to adapt and expand coffee embraces the climate and non-climate
uncertaintyinherentinclimateadaptation.Theirplanisintendedto“encourageaction
withuncertaintyinmindratherthanignoringit”(CDKN162015,p.4).Withaflexibility
underpinning,Rwandalaysoutitsadaptationstrategyinathree-parttimehorizon.The
first phase targets no-regret and low-regret actions. These include addressing their
current adaptation deficit (providing more immediate economic benefits),
mainstreaming resilience into other programs, and building capacity for the future.
Duringwhattheplanreferstoasthe“nearfuture”(2020s),thefocusisonreviewingand
enhancingprograms in light of new risks thatmayhave emerged. In the longer-term
(2050s),theyplanto“actiterativelyasrisksevolve”(CDKN2015,p.4).
Rwandaisactivelyworkingtoincorporatescientificknowledgeandpredictionintoits
development decisions. They stress more collaboration between those who make
projectionsandtheend-userssothattheinformationgeneratedbythesepredictionscan
bemoreuseful. Theyalsoemphasizea “decision-first” (asopposed to “science-first”)
approach.Asopposedtothegoalsbeingdefinedbytheprojections,thismodeldefines
developmentobjectivesfirstandanalyzesthescienceinthatcontext.
5.4Astrategyforward
For coffee-producing countries, GCC will require action. But this action needs to be
targeted appropriately to make the best use of the limited resources available.
Developingunambiguousadaptationplansisanoxymoronictaskgiventheambiguous
16ClimateandDevelopmentKnowledgeNetwork
37
natureofGCC.WhileotherAOPCsmaynothavetheresourcesofthecoffeejuggernaut
that is Brazil, lessons can be gleaned from reviewing adaptation plans of Brazil and
others, which can guide a country’s specific strategic implementation of adaptive
measures.
Acountry’sadaptationplansshouldcenteronthefollowingdrivers:
(1) Adaptations should be flexible, site-specific, and responsive to economic
considerations.
(2) Where viable, low-risk adaptation options with co-benefits should be a
priority.
(3)Thebarrierstoeffectiveadaptationmustbeaddressed.
5.4.1Economicconsiderationsandflexible,site-specificadaptations
AsOvalle-Riveraetal.(2015,p.5)pointout,“simpleaveragesarenotenoughtoreveal
thetruthontheground.”Overallsuitabilityaveragesandtrendsdonotprovideaproper
basisformakingclimatepredictionsandadoptingresponses.Suitabilitystudiesonasub-
national level are necessary to identify areas on the margin of suitability, where
adaptation and intensification can do the most good to make such areas viable by
increasingtheyields.
CountriescanuseGISmapstoidentifyareasforoptimumadaptation.Suitableareasmay
benefit from adaptations that increase yields. However, hectares that are currently
producingatoptimallevels,andthatareunlikelytobesignificantlyimpactedbyGCCin
the short-term or even intermediate-term, should be identified in order to avoid
misplacedadaptationcostandeffort.Similarly,adaptationeffortsshouldnotbemadein
situationsthatmightonlyresultinmarginalbenefitsonmarginalland,particularlywhen
suchadaptationmeasuresaremostexpensive.Economicallyoptimaladaptationrequires
investment only up to the point where the return no longer outweighs the cost of
adaptation expenditures. As coffee becomesmore scarce, the price will rise, and the
economicallyoptimallevelofadaptationwillrisewithit.Countriesmustdetermineand
striveforeconomicallyoptimallevelsofadaptation.
38
An analysis of coffee in Haiti by the Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical
acknowledgesthesite-specificnatureofcoffeeadaptation.FromEitzingeretal.(2013,
p.34):
Areasthatwillincreaseinsuitabilityneedstrategicinvestment.Areasthatwill lose some suitability are likely to bemaintained through targetedstrategies such as irrigation, shade management and change to moredroughtresistantvarieties.Areasthatarelikelytosufferfromsignificantdecrease in suitability need to start diversifying in order to switch todifferentcrops,suchascocoa,oncecoffeeisnotsuitableanymore.
5.4.2Low-risk,no-regretadaptations
Adaptiveactions should focusonmeasures that canbenefit farmers regardlessof the
levelof futureclimatechanges.These low-risk,no-regret strategiesarepreferable for
countrieswithlimitedresourcesthatcannotafford,orareunwilling,toguardagainsta
riskthatmightneverhappen.TheexperienceofJamaica’sBlueMountainCoffeebrand
(see5.1.2)showcasestherewardsofalow-risk,no-regretadaptation.
Similarly, somecertificationschemes(RainforestAlliance,BirdFriendly,Organic,etc.)
haverequirementsthatparallelmanyadaptationstrategies:shadecover,waterandsoil
conservation,andpestmanagement.Certificationoffarmscouldhaveadoublebenefitof
allowingfarmerstocommandhigherpricesfortheiryields,whilebufferingagainstthe
harms of increasing temperatures. Shade trees, agroforestry, and intercropping have
beendubbed“triplewins”(Watkissunpub.,p.6)duetotheirpositiveimplicationsonfood
security,carbonuptake,andGCCadaptation.Governmentassistanceinovercomingthe
financialcostsofcertificationcanhelpfarmersgainresourcestheycoulduseforfurther
adaptation.
5.4.3Addressingbarriers
Foreffectivenational-leveladaptationplans,awarenessoftheconstraintsofthetargeted
population of farmers is key. Any program needs to have proper monitoring and
evaluationtoolsbuiltintothedesign.Thebenefitsofthisaretwo-fold.First,itallowsfor
better program design in the future. Second, it reduces uncertainty for farmers.
39
Informationontheeffectivenessandrealcostsofvariousadaptationinstrumentsallows
farmerstobetterassessthefitfortheirfarms.
Smallholder farmers could also benefit from better access to financing to enable
investment in adaptation. This may require guidance and incentives for financial
institutions toprovideadaptation lendingandcrop insurance forcoffee,asKenyadid
withtheestablishmentofitsCoffeeDevelopmentFundin2006(ICO2015).Additionally,
educationoffarmersonfinancialtoolsavailabletothemcouldincreasetheeffectiveness
oftheseresources.Finally,theexistenceofaprogramdoeslittlewithoutawarenessby
thetargetedpopulation.Disseminationofinformationtostakeholdersiskeytoturning
programsintoproduction.
Governments of LDCs and developing countries often face hurdles of instability,
corruption,extremelylimitedresources,andthepresenceoftrumpingissues(likefamine
orwar).However,addressingtheinstitutionalconstraintstoenactingeffectivepolicies
meritsextensivestudyinitsownright.Actingwiththeselimitsinmind,agovernment’s
dominantstrategymaybetoprovideaguidingroleinpartnershipswithMNCCs,NGOs,
andresearchersoperatinginthecoffeesectorintheircountry.Forinstance,arecently-
completed$500millionbondofferingbyStarbucksforfarmerwelfareandmitigatingthe
effectsofGCConcoffeecrops(Chasan2016)couldbeawelcomedinfusionofresources
for governments with those same goals. Through these public-private partnerships,
governmentscantakeadvantageofthetechnicalandfinancialresourcesofthesenon-
stateactors,whilemanagingactivitiestoavoidredundantorunproductivework.
40
6Conclusion
Whencomparingeconomicandscientificdatatotheresponseofgovernmentsrelatedto
adaptationplansforCoffeaarabica,thisstudyfound:
(1)Therewasvery littlecorrelationbetweentheprojectedfuturesuitabilityof
coffeegrowingandtheexistenceofadaptationplans.
(2)Countriesinwhichcoffeemadeupover0.3%ofexportsweremorelikelyto
haveplansforcoffeeadaptation,ortocitecoffeespecificallyinanoverallclimate
plan.
(3)Countriesinwhichcoffeecontributedinsignificantlytoexportswerelesslikely
tohavecoffeeadaptationplans,ormentioncoffeeinagreateradaptationplan.
Additionally, it was found that suitability projections vary widely based on the
methodology of the study. Observations on global and country-level trends in coffee
suitabilitymissthecriticaldetailsatthesub-nationallevelthatareessentialtomaking
informed adaptation decisions. The benefits of some adaptations strategies are also
uncertain. These uncertainties can deter the implementation of adaptationmeasures;
governmentsarereluctanttoallocatelimitedresourcestoprogramsthatmayormaynot
beneededorthatmayormaynotsucceed.Economicrationale,ratherthanscience-based
suitabilitytrends,providesalessambiguousbasisforallocatingresourcestoadaptation
needs.
One promising take-away is that many of these governments, located mostly in
developingcountriesandLDCs,arerespondingdespitethelackofanunambiguouspath
or a clear light to find one. Adaptation plans are being developed under economic
rationaleinanattempttoprotectthemanysmallholderfarmerswhodependonthiscrop
fortheirlivelihoods.Somecountrieshaveevenfoundwaystousethisbeantopromote
othergoals,suchaswaterqualityandGCCmitigationgoals.
Infuturestudies,itwouldbeinterestingtoseehowthepresenceofnon-stateactors,such
as local coffee cooperatives, MNCCs, NGOs, and universities can affect or influence
national governments in adaptation planning (whether by reducing, increasing or
somehow changing their courses of action). It would also be interesting so seewhat
41
actions are being taken by countries that produce both arabica and robusta. Finally,
althoughtheexistenceofanadaptationplanisofutmostimportance,itisonlyafirststep
towardclimateresilience.Futurestudiesshouldlookattheimpactofdifferentplanson
theuptakebyfarmersandultimatelytheproductioninthecountry.Thiscanhelppolicy-
makersunderstandwhattypesofnationalplanstranslateintooptimumresultsfortheir
country.
Risingdemandcoupledwithdecreasedglobalsuitabilityforcoffeemeansthatcountries
thatcanadaptandcontinue togrowarabicawill seehigherprices foreverybag they
export.Totakeadvantageofthisopportunity,countriesmustcreatenationaladaptation
plansthatcanfacilitateeconomicallyviableadaptationbyprovidinginstitutionalsupport
thatcanreducebarrierstoadaptation.
Ultimately,economicforceswillinfluenceadaptiveactions.Countriesthatseetheneed,
and have the will, to formulate and implement adaptation plans will do so. These
countries and their growers will have a better opportunity to prosper in the coffee
industrydespitethethreatofglobalclimatechange.
i
Annexes
ii
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RepublicofZambia.MinistryofLegalAffairs(1994)TheLawsofZambia,Chapter228:TheCoffeeAct.[Online].Availablefrom:http://www.parliament.gov.zm/sites/default/files/documents/acts/CoffeeAct.pdf[Accessed:26July2016].
Sachs,J.,Rising,J.,Foreman,T.,Simmons,J.,etal.(2015)Climatesuitability.In:TheEarthInstituteCoffeeReport.Theimpactsofclimatechangeoncoffee:troublebrewing.TheEarthInstitute,ColombiaUniversity.[Online].Availablefrom:http://eicoffee.net
Schroth,G.,Läderach,P.,BlackburnCuero,D.S.,Neilson,J.,etal.(2014)Winnerorloserofclimatechange?AmodelingstudyofcurrentandfutureclimaticsuitabilityofArabicacoffeeinIndonesia.RegionalEnvironmentalChange.[Online].15(7),1473–1482.Availablefrom:doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0713-x[Accessed:21July2016].
Schroth,G.,Laderach,P.,Dempewolf,J.,Philpott,S.,etal.(2009)TowardsaclimatechangeadaptationstrategyforcoffeecommunitiesandecosystemsintheSierraMadredeChiapas,Mexico.MitigationandAdaptationStrategiesforGlobalChange.[Online].14(7),605–625.Availablefrom:doi:10.1007/s11027-009-9186-5.
Stanculescu,D.,Scholer,M.&Kotecha,S.(2011)EthiopianCoffeeQualityImprovement;2011AidforTradeGlobalReview:CaseStory,Geneva,Switzerland:InternationalTradeCentre.
Talbot,J.M.(2004)GroundsforAgreement:ThePoliticalEconomyoftheCoffeeCommodityChain.Lantham,Rowman&LittlefieldPublishers,Inc.
Taye,K.(2010)EnvironmentalSustainabilityandCoffeeDiversityinAfrica,Jimma,Ethiopia:InternationalCoffeeOrganization.[Online].Availablefrom:http://www.ico.org/event_pdfs/wcc2010/presentations/wcc2010-kufa-notes-e.pdf[Accessed:3January2016].
UnitedRepublicofTanzania.VicePresident’sOffice(2003)InitialNationalCommunicationundertheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC),DaresSalaam,Tanzania.[Online].Availablefrom:http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/tannc1.pdf.
UnitedRepublicofTanzania.VicePresident’sOfficeDivisionoftheEnvironment(2007)TheUnitedRepublicofTanzania.NationalAdaptationProgrammeofAction(NAPA).GovernmentofTanzania.
UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture(2012)ClimatechangeandagricultureintheUnitedStates:effectsandadaptation,Washington,DC.,UnitedStates.[Online].Availablefrom:http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/effects.htm[Accessed:27July2016].
ix
UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureForeignAgriculturalService(2016)Production,Supply,andDistributionOnline.[Online].2016.Availablefrom:http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx.
UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureForeignAgriculturalServiceOfficeofGlobalAnalysis(2016)Coffee:worldmarketsandtrade.[Online].Availablefrom:https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/coffee.pdf.
vanderVossen,H.,Bertrand,B.&Charrier,A.(2015)Nextgenerationvarietydevelopmentforsustainableproductionofarabicacoffee(CoffeaarabicaL.):areview.Euphytica.[Online].243–256.Availablefrom:doi:10.1007/s10681-015-1398-z.
Watkiss,P.(n.d.)ClimatechangeimpactsoncoffeeandteaproductioninRwanda:LiteratureReview.[Unpublished.]
WorldBank(2016)Agriculturalirrigatedland(%oftotalagriculturalland).[Customrangeofdata].Availablefrom:http://data.worldbank.org.
WorldBank(2016)Exportsofgoodsandservices(%ofGDP).[Online].Availablefrom:http://data.worldbank.org.
WorldBank(2016)GDPpercapita,PPP(currentUS$).[Customrangeofdata].Availablefrom:http://data.worldbank.org.
WorldBank(2016)GDPpercapita(currentUS$).[Customrangeofdata].Availablefrom:http://data.worldbank.org.
WorldBank(2016)GDPatmarketprices(currentUS$).[Customrangeofdata].Availablefrom:http://data.worldbank.org.
WorldCoffeeResearch(2016)GlobalCoffeeConservationStrategy.WorldCoffeeResearch[Online].2016.Availablefrom:https://worldcoffeeresearch.org/work/global-coffee-conservation-strategy/.
Zake,J.,Pietsch,S.A.,Friedel,J.K.&Zechmeister-Boltenstern,S.(2015)Canagroforestryimprovesoilfertilityandcarbonstorageinsmallholderbananafarmingsystems?JournalofPlantNutritionandSoilScience.[Online].178(2),237–249.Availablefrom:doi:10.1002/jpln.201400281.
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AnnexII.SuitabilityStudies
Suitabilitystudiesreviewed,butnotnecessarilycitedinmaindocument.
AgriculturalRiskManagementTeamoftheAgriculturalandRuralDevelopmentDepartmentofTheWorldBank(2010)HaitiCoffeeSupplyChainRiskAssessment.TheWorldBank.
Baca,M.,Läderach,P.,Haggar,J.,Schroth,G.,etal.(2014)Anintegratedframeworkforassessingvulnerabilitytoclimatechangeanddevelopingadaptationstrategiesforcoffeegrowingfamiliesinmesoamerica.PLoSONE.[Online].9(2).Availablefrom:doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0088463.
Baker,P.&Haggar,J.(2007)GlobalWarming:theimpactonglobalcoffee.In:SCAAConference.2007pp.1–14.
Brown,D.(2012)Climatechangeimpacts,vulnerabilityandadaptationinZimbabwe.ClimateChange.[Online].Availablefrom:doi:10.1023/B:GEJO.0000003613.15101.d9[Accessed:27July2016].
Bunn,C.(2015)Modelingtheclimatechangeimpactsonglobalcoffeeproduction.[Online].Humboldt-UniversitätzuBerlin.Availablefrom:http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/dissertationen/bunn-christian-2015-10-16/METADATA/abstract.php?id=42152.
Bunn,C.,Läderach,P.,Ovalle-Rivera,O.&Kirschke,D.(2014)Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffee.ClimaticChange.[Online].129(1-2),89–101.Availablefrom:doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x.
Bunn,C.,Läderach,P.,PérezJimenez,J.G.,Montagnon,C.,etal.(2015)MulticlassClassificationofAgro-EcologicalZonesforArabicaCoffee:AnImprovedUnderstandingoftheImpactsofClimateChange.PloSONE.[Online].10(10),e0140490.Availablefrom:doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0140490[Accessed:5August2016].
Craparo,A.C.W.C.W.,VanAsten,P.J.A.J.A.,Läderach,P.,Jassogne,L.T.P.T.P.,etal.(2015)CoffeaarabicayieldsdeclineinTanzaniaduetoclimatechange:Globalimplications.AgriculturalandForestMeteorology.[Online].2011–10.Availablefrom:doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.04.020.
Davis,A.P.,Gole,T.W.,Baena,S.&Moat,J.(2012)TheimpactofclimatechangeonindigenousArabicacoffee(Coffeaarabica):predictingfuturetrendsandidentifyingpriorities.PloSONE.[Online].7(11),e47981.Availablefrom:doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0047981[Accessed:9December2015].
Deryng,D.,Conway,D.,Ramankutty,N.,Price,J.,etal.(2014)Globalcropyieldresponsetoextremeheatstressundermultipleclimatechangefutures.EnvironmentalResearchLetters.[Online].9(3),034011.Availablefrom:doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034011[Accessed:15August2015].
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Dinar,A.,Hassan,R.,Mendelsohn,R.,Benhin,J.,etal.(2008)ClimateChangeandAgricultureinAfrica:ImpactAssessmentandAdaptationStrategies.[Online].Hoboken:Earthscan,2012.-223p.Availablefrom:http://gateway-bayern.de/BV041004323[Accessed:3January2016].
Eitzinger,A.,Läderach,P.,Carmona,S.,Navarro,C.,etal.(2013)PredictionoftheimpactofclimatechangeoncoffeeandmangogrowingareasinHaiti.FullTechnicalReport.CentroInternacionaldeAgriculturaTropical.(August),44.
Haggar,J.(2011)CoffeeandClimateChange-DeskStudy:ImpactsofClimateChangeinthePilotCountryGuatemalaoftheCoffee&ClimateInitiative.[Online].p.20.Availablefrom:http://www.nri.org/images/documents/promotional_material/D5930-11_NRI_Coffee_Climate_Change_WEB.pdf.
InternationalCoffeeOrganization(2015)CoffeeInChina.In:InternationalCoffeeCouncil115thSession.2015Milan,Italy.pp.0–9.
Jaramillo,J.,Chabi-Olaye,A.,Kamonjo,C.,Jaramillo,A.,etal.(2009)ThermaltoleranceofthecoffeeberryborerHypothenemushampei:predictionsofclimatechangeimpactonatropicalinsectpest.PloSONE.[Online].4(8),e6487.Availablefrom:doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0006487[Accessed:5August2016].
Jassogne,L.,Läderach,P.&Asten,P.V.aN.(2013)TheImpactofClimateChangeonCoffeeinUganda.OxfamResearchReports.OxfamPolicyandPractice:ClimatechangeandResilience.9(April),51–66.
Jones,P.&Thornton,P.(2003)ThepotentialimpactsofclimatechangeonmaizeproductioninAfricaandLatinAmericain2055.GlobalEnvironmentalChange.[Online].13(1),51–59.Availablefrom:doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00090-0[Accessed:19November2014].
Läderach,P.,Lundy,M.,Jarvis,A.,Ramirez,J.,etal.(2011)PredictedImpactofClimateChangeonCoffeeSupplyChains.In:TheEconomic,SocialandPoliticalElementsofClimateChange.[Online].pp.703–723.Availablefrom:doi:10.1007/978-3-642-14776-0.
Malhi,Y.&Wright,J.(2004)Spatialpatternsandrecenttrendsintheclimateoftropicalrainforestregions.PhilosophicaltransactionsoftheRoyalSocietyofLondon.SeriesB,Biologicalsciences.[Online].359(1443),311–329.Availablefrom:doi:10.1098/rstb.2003.1433.
Mendelsohn,R.,Dinar,A.&Williams,L.(2006)Thedistributionalimpactofclimatechangeonrichandpoorcountries.EnvironmentandDevelopmentEconomics.[Online].11(02),159.
Nzeyimana,I.,Hartemink,A.E.&Geissen,V.(2014)GIS-basedmulti-criteriaanalysisforArabicacoffeeexpansioninRwanda.PLoSONE.[Online].9(10).Availablefrom:doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0107449.
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Ovalle-Rivera,O.,Läderach,P.,Bunn,C.,Obersteiner,M.,etal.(2015)ProjectedshiftsinCoffeaarabicasuitabilityamongmajorglobalproducingregionsduetoclimatechange.PLoSONE.[Online].10(4).Availablefrom:doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0124155.
Ranjitkar,S.,Sujakhu,N.M.,Budhamagar,K.,Rimal,S.,etal.(2015)ProjectedclimaticchangeimpactonclimaticsuitabilityandgeographicaldistributionofbananaandcoffeeplantationsinNepal.[Online].Availablefrom:doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5716/WP15294.PDF[Accessed:24July2016].
Sachs,J.,Rising,J.,Foreman,T.,Simmons,J.,etal.(2015)Climatesuitability.In:Theimpactsofclimatechangeoncoffee:troublebrewing.
Schroth,G.,Läderach,P.,BlackburnCuero,D.S.,Neilson,J.,etal.(2014)Winnerorloserofclimatechange?AmodelingstudyofcurrentandfutureclimaticsuitabilityofArabicacoffeeinIndonesia.RegionalEnvironmentalChange.[Online].15(7),1473–1482.Availablefrom:doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0713-x[Accessed:21July2016].
Schroth,G.,Läderach,P.,Dempewolf,J.,Philpott,S.,etal.(2009)TowardsaclimatechangeadaptationstrategyforcoffeecommunitiesandecosystemsintheSierraMadredeChiapas,Mexico.MitigationandAdaptationStrategiesforGlobalChange.[Online].14(7),605–625.Availablefrom:doi:10.1007/s11027-009-9186-5.
Taye,K.(2010)EnvironmentalSustainabilityandCoffeeDiversityinAfrica.[Online].Availablefrom:http://www.ico.org/event_pdfs/wcc2010/presentations/wcc2010-kufa-notes-e.pdf[Accessed:3January2016].
Zullo,J.,Pinto,H.S.,Assad,E.D.&deÁvila,A.M.H.(2011)PotentialforgrowingArabicacoffeeintheextremesouthofBrazilinawarmerworld.ClimaticChange.[Online].109(3-4),535–548.Availablefrom:doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0058-0.