Upload
infodev-aps
View
236
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
This Manual is designed to provide guidance to decision makers by summarising the key outcomes of work conducted under two components of the Kiribati Adaptation Program (KAP II). Consultants involved in each of these components of the KAP II worked in unison to develop information on projected sea level rise in Kiribati and the hazard extent relative to each projected sea level rise, including , storm tide levels. This information is valuable for decision makers across Government departments and should be readily accessible for inclusion in decision‐making processes. Consequently, the objective of this Manual is to summarise the primary outcomes of the work conducted to establish projected sea level rise in Tarawa under a range of timeframes and scenarios. This information should be applied to support decisions across the government of Kiribati (GoK) that influence the use and development of land and its resources.
Citation preview
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Supporting Land Use Decision Making in the Republic of Kiribati
PLANNING MANUAL
KAP II: Component 1.3.2
Adaptation Handbook: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page i
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABOUT THIS MANUAL............................................................................................2DOCUMENT OUTLINE ............................................................................................................................ 2
SECTION 1: SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS ..................................................4SECTION 2: HAZARD EXTENT MAPS .................................................................9
MAPS INDICATING LAND SITUATED BELOW 2.2METRES ELEVATION ................................................. 10MAPS INDICATING LAND SITUATED BELOW 2.3 METRES ELEVATION................................................. 18MAPS INDICATING LAND SITUATED BELOW 2.4 METRES ELEVATION................................................. 26MAPS INDICATING LAND SITUATED BELOW 2.6 METRES ELEVATION................................................. 34
SECTION 3: HAZARD EXTENT VISUAL TOOLS ............................................42CONCLUSION ..........................................................................................................45
The Handbook was produced for KAP II by:
Coastal Zone Management (Australia) Pty Ltd PO BOX 436, Claremont, Perth, Australia, 6010 ph +61 (0)8 9284 6470 fax +61 (0)8 9284 6490 www.coastalmanagement.com [email protected]
Recommended Citation: Elrick, C., Kay, R. and Bond, T. (2009) Planning Manual: Supporting land use decision making in the Republic of Kiribati. Prepared for Kiribati Adaptation Project Phase II (KAP II), Government of Kiribati.
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 2
About This Manual
ThisManual isdesignedtoprovideguidancetodecisionmakersbysummarisingthekeyoutcomesofworkconductedundertwocomponentsoftheKiribatiAdaptationProgram(KAPII)(Component1.3.2andComponent1.4.0).ConsultantsinvolvedineachofthesecomponentsoftheKAPIIworkedinunisontodevelopinformationonprojectedsealevelriseinKiribatiandthehazardextentrelativetoeachprojectedsealevelrise,including,stormtidelevels.
This information is valuable for decision makers across Government departments and should bereadily accessible for inclusion in decision‐making processes. Consequently, the objective of thisManual is to summarise the primary outcomes of thework conducted to establish projected sealevelriseinTarawaunderarangeoftimeframesandscenarios.ThisinformationshouldbeappliedtosupportdecisionsacrossthegovernmentofKiribati(GoK)thatinfluencetheuseanddevelopmentof land and its resources. For example, the information may support decision making for urbandevelopmentandthelocationanddesignofkeyinfrastructure.
Anumberofotherreportsandtoolshavebeenproducedthroughthiswork.Theseinclude:
• Coastalcalculatorhandbook;
• Coastalcalculatortool;
• Riskassessmenthandbook;and
• Adaptationplanninghandbook.
TherelationshipbetweenthisPlanningManualandotherkeyreportsproducedthroughComponent1.3.2and1.4.0areshowninFigure1.ThereportsarereferencedinthisManualandareavailableinfullfromtheKAPIIProjectManagementUnit.
Document Outline Section1providesresultsformeanlevelsofthesea,stormtidelevels(extremesealevels)fortheTarawalagoonshorelineandforstormtide+waveset‐uplevelsfortheTarawaoceanshore,forthethreeselectedI‐Kiribaticlimatechangescenariosandthreetimeframes.Thisinformationisderivedfrom the coastal calculator (as presented in Chapter 3 of the Coastal Calculator OperationalHandbook).
Section2provideshazardextentmapsthatindicatethelevelofinundationduringmeanhighwatersprings (MHWS) for the three selected I‐Kiribati climate change scenarios and three timeframes,basedontheinformationpresentedinSection1.
Section3 isanaccompanyingdataCDthatcontainsGoogleearth files.The filescanbeopened inGoogleearthand indicate theprojectedextentof inundationduringMHWSand stormevents forthe highest I‐Kiribati climate change scenario (A1FI) and four timeframes (2030, 2050, 2070 and2100).
ThoseintheGovernmentofKiribati,andthosesupportingthegovernment,canusetheinformationpresentedintheManual,toincorporatesealevelriseinundationriskintodecisionmaking.
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 3
Figure1:Supportingdocuments
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 4
Section 1: Sea level rise projections
Thischapterpresentstheprojectedchangeinmeanleveloftheseaandstormtidelevelsforthreedifferent climate change scenarios and timeframes. The information presented in this chapter isdrawnfromtheCoastalCalculatorOperationalHandbook.
Thedatapresentedinthischaptermaybeappliedtoenhancethemainstreamingofclimatechangeintolandanddevelopmentplanning,byenabling:
• Setting minimum ground levels or floor levels for the construction of new buildings (orrebuilding)bytheGovernment.
• Engagementwithcommunityregardingminimumground levels forbuilding (orrebuilding)ofcommunitybuildingsandinfrastructure.
Thecoastal calculatorwillneed tobeappliedusingappropriateparameters for the local reefandshorelinecharacteristics (see theCoastalCalculatorOperationalHandbook for further informationforconsiderationof:
• Differenttimeframesorclimatechangescenarios;and
• Assessmentoflocalinundationpotentialimmediatelybehindtheshorelinewherewaverun‐upandovertoppingmaybeafactor,).
Location / water level information Timeframe Location in Figure
Tidelevels(MLOS,MHWS,MHWPS)Tetibu(2012‐2036)Tibu‐toru(2036‐2060)Tibu‐mwamwanu(2060‐2074)
TopCentreBottom
Lagoonshoreline10%,2%&1%AEPstormtidelevels
Tetibu(2012‐2036)Tibu‐toru(2036‐2060)Tibu‐mwamwanu(2060‐2074)
TopCentreBottom
Tarawaoceanshore(south)10%,2%&1%AEPwaveset‐uplevels
Tetibu(2012‐2036)Tibu‐toru(2036‐2060)Tibu‐mwamwanu(2060‐2074)
TopCentreBottom
Tarawaoceanshore(north(east))10%,2%&1%AEPwaveset‐uplevels
Tetibu(2012‐2036)Tibu‐toru(2036‐2060)Tibu‐mwamwanu(2060‐2074)
TopCentreBottom
RefertotheCoastalCalculatorOperationalHandbook(Chapter3)fordetailsonthevariabilityofthelagoonandoceanshorelines,andhowthisvariabilitymayinfluenceinundationlevels.
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 5
Tidelevels
Mean level of the sea and high tide for the present day (1980‐1999 average) and three I‐Kiribaticlimatechangescenarios(B2–green,A2–orange,A1FI‐red)andtimeframes(Tetibu–top,Tibu‐toru–middle,Tibu‐mwamwanu–bottom).
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 6
Tarawalagoonshoreline:Extremewaterlevels(stormside)
10%,2%and1%AEPstormtidelevelsforthepresentday(1980‐1999average)andthreeI‐Kiribaticlimatechangescenarios(B2–green,A2–orange,A1FI‐red)andtimeframes(Tetibu–top,Tibu‐toru–middle,Tibu‐mwamwanu–bottom).
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 7
Tarawaoceanshore(south):Extremewaterlevels(stormtide+waveset‐up)
Extreme sea levels (comprising tide, storm surge and wave set‐up) corresponding to the wave /water levelconditionswitha10%,2%and1%chanceofoccurring inanyoneyearforthepresentdayandthreeI‐Kiribaticlimatechangescenariosandtimeframes.
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 8
Tarawaoceanshore(north(east)):Extremewaterlevels(stormtide+waveset‐up)
Extreme sea levels (comprising tide, storm surge and wave set‐up) corresponding to the wave /water levelconditionswitha10%,2%and1%chanceofoccurring inanyoneyearforthepresentdayandthreeI‐Kiribaticlimatechangescenariosandtimeframes.
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 9
Section 2: Hazard Extent Maps
Themapspresented in this chapterpresentpotential inundationextentsduringmeanhighwatersprings(MHWS)forthethreeselectedI‐Kiribaticlimatechangescenariosandthreetimeframes.
The informationpresented in this chaptermaybeapplied toclimateproof landanddevelopmentplanning,by:
• Establishingtheextentofexistingbuilding inundationriskandhowthismaychange inthefuture.
• Enabling the assessment of areas at potential risk from inundation (in terms of frequentevents,e.g.hightides)andhowthesemaychange.
For further information on the process by which these outputs were developed: see the RiskAssessmentHandbookandtheAdaptationHandbook.
To view the projected inundation extents during storm events, refer to the data CD available inChapter3.
ThreescenariosforclimatechangehavebeenselectedforuseinreviewingpotentialclimatechangehazardsinKiribati.Theseare:
• IPCCB2–lowclimatechangescenario
• IPCCA2–mediumclimatechangescenario
• IPCCA1FI–highclimatechangescenario
The scenarios represent different projections for climate change. Importantly, no scenario by theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)ismorelikelytooccurthananother.However,itis importanttonotethattheglobal‐meansea levelrise iscurrentlytracking(from1990–2005) inaccordancewiththehighestIPCCclimatechangescenario,A1FI.
Foreachmappresentedinthischapter,theheightoflandlikelytobeaffectedbyaclimatechangescenario is noted. The affected land is shaded in blue. In some maps, there is no blue shading,indicating that the area will not be affected under the selected climate change scenario. Areasshaded in blue indicate an area of low‐lying land thatmay become permanently swampy as sealevels,andconsequentlythewatertable,rise.Infrastructureandservicessituatedintheseareaswilllikely require increased maintenance, and certain areas of land may potentially becomeuninhabitable.Inaddition,groundwatermaybecomeexposedtocontaminants,astheboundariesbetweenthefreshwaterinterfaceandhumanactivitydecrease.
ImportantNote:
Allmaps contain data generated from the 1998 TarawaMapping Project. Themapping datawasextracted from1:8,000photographytoproduce1metrecontoursaccurateto0.5mvertically.Thecontours used to create the maps presented in this chapter have been generated by the samecompany that completed theoriginalmappingat an intervalof 0.1m,which is significantlyhigherintervalthanwhatisrecommendedforthisscaleofphotography.Itisimportanttonotethatthesecontourswillremainaccurateto0.5mvertical.
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 10
Maps Indicating Land Situated Below 2.2metres Elevation
Mapsinthissectionindicatelandsituatedbelow2.2m(basedonUniversityofHawaiiDatum–thesamedatumusedinthecontourmaps).Inthemaps,thelandsituatedbelow2.2misshadedinblue.Areasshaded inblue indicateanareaof low‐lying landthatmaybecomepermanentlyswampyassealevels,andconsequentlythewatertable,rise.Infrastructureandservicessituatedintheseareaswill likely require increased maintenance and certain areas of land may potentially becomeuninhabitable. Inaddition,groundwatermaybecomeexposedtocontaminantsastheboundariesbetween the freshwater interface and human activity decrease. In some maps, there is no blueshading,indicatingthattheareawillnotbeaffectedundertheselectedclimatechangescenario.
Thescenariosthataligntoinundationof2.2metresinclude:
• Scenario2030B2‐impactlikelyexperiencedbytheyear2030(appliesthelowscenario)
• Scenario2050B2‐impactlikelyexperiencedbytheyear2050(appliesthelowscenario)
• Scenario 2030 A2 ‐ impact likely experienced by the year 2030 (applies the mediumscenario)
ThelegendforeachmapisshowninFigure2.
Figure2:Maplegend
GovernmentServiceOne:Health,education,policefacilitiesGovernmentServiceTwo:Water,sewerage,electricity,TSKLcable(allmappedasseparatelines)GovernmentServiceThree:MajorTransport–airports,portsGovernmentServiceFour:Roads(mappedasseparateline)Government Service Five: Government Building, not housing – for example agriculture office, diplomaticbuilding,prison,desalinationplant.
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 11
Figure3:Betio,2.2metres
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 12
Figure4:BairikiandNanikaai,2.2m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 13
Figure5:Teaoraereke,AntenonandAntebuka,2.2m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 14
Figure6:Banraeba,AmboandTaborioST.2.2m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 15
Figure7:Tangintebu,EitaandAbarao,2.2m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 16
Figure8:BwangantebureandBikenibeu,2.2m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 17
Figure9:NawerewereandTemaiku,2.2m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 18
Maps Indicating Land Situated Below 2.3 metres Elevation
Maps in thissection indicate landsituatedbelow2.3m(basedonUniversityofHawaiiDatum). Inthemaps,thelandsituatedbelow2.3misshadedinblue.Areasshadedinblueindicateanareaoflow‐lying land thatmay become permanently swampy as sea levels, and consequently thewatertable, rise. Infrastructure and services situated in these areas will likely require increasedmaintenanceandcertainareasof landmaypotentiallybecomeuninhabitable. Inaddition,groundwatermaybecomeexposed tocontaminantsas theboundariesbetween the freshwater interfaceandhumanactivitydecrease. Insomemaps, there isnoblueshading, indicatingthat theareawillnotbeaffectedundertheselectedclimatechangescenario.
Thescenariosthataligntoinundationof2.3metresinclude:
• Scenario2070B2 (lowscenario)– impact likelyexperiencedby theyear2070 (applies thelowscenario)
• Scenario2050A2(mediumscenariowith0.1mscaledupicesheetdischarge)–impactlikelyexperiencedbytheyear2050(appliesthemediumscenario)
• Scenario2030A1FI (high scenariowith0.2mscaledup ice sheetdischarge) ‐ impact likelyexperiencedbytheyear2030(appliesthehighscenario)
ThelegendforeachmapisshowninFigure2.
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 19
Figure10:Betio,2.3metres
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 20
Figure11:BairikiandNanikaai,2.3m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 21
Figure12:Teaoraereke,AntenonandAntebuka,2.3m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 22
Figure13:Banraeba,AmboandTaborioST.2.3m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 23
Figure14:Tangintebu,EitaandAbarao,2.3m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 24
Figure15:BwangantebureandBikenibeu,2.3m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 25
Figure16:NawerewereandTemaiku,2.3m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 26
Maps Indicating Land Situated Below 2.4 metres Elevation
Maps in thissection indicate landsituatedbelow2.4m(basedonUniversityofHawaiiDatum). Inthemaps,thelandsituatedbelow2.4misshadedinblue.Areasshadedinblueindicateanareaoflow‐lying land thatmay become permanently swampy as sea levels, and consequently thewatertable, rise. Infrastructure and services situated in these areas will likely require increasedmaintenanceandcertainareasof landmaypotentiallybecomeuninhabitable. Inaddition,groundwatermaybecomeexposed tocontaminantsas theboundariesbetween the freshwater interfaceandhumanactivitydecrease. Insomemaps, there isnoblueshading, indicatingthattheareawillnotbeaffectedundertheselectedclimatechangescenario.
Thescenariosthataligntoinundationof2.4metresinclude:
• Scenario2050A1FI‐ impact likelyexperiencedby theyear2050 (applies thehigh scenariowith0.2mscaledupicesheetdischarge)
• Scenario2070A2‐impactlikelyexperiencedbytheyear2070(appliesthemediumscenariowith0.1mscaledupicesheetdischarge)
ThelegendforeachmapisshowninFigure2.
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 27
Figure17:Betio,2.4metres
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 28
Figure18:BairikiandNanikaai,2.4m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 29
Figure19:Teaoraereke,AntenonandAntebuka,2.4m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 30
Figure20:Banraeba,AmboandTaborioST.2.4m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 31
Figure21:Tangintebu,EitaandAbarao,2.4m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 32
Figure22:BwangantebureandBikenibeu,2.4m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 33
Figure23:NawerewereandTemaiku,2.4m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 34
Maps Indicating Land Situated Below 2.6 metres Elevation
Maps in thissection indicate landsituatedbelow2.6m(basedonUniversityofHawaiiDatum). Inthemaps,thelandsituatedbelow2.6misshadedinblue.Areasshadedinblueindicateanareaoflow‐lying land thatmay become permanently swampy as sea levels, and consequently thewatertable, rise. Infrastructure and services situated in these areas will likely require increasedmaintenanceandcertainareasof landmaypotentiallybecomeuninhabitable. Inaddition,groundwatermaybecomeexposed tocontaminantsas theboundariesbetween the freshwater interfaceandhumanactivitydecrease. Insomemaps, there isnoblueshading, indicatingthattheareawillnotbeaffectedundertheselectedclimatechangescenario.
Thescenariosthataligntoinundationof2.6metresinclude:
• Scenario2070A1FI ‐ impact likelyexperiencedbytheyear2070(appliesthehighscenariowith0.2mscaledupicesheetdischarge)
ThelegendforeachmapisshowninFigure2.
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 35
Figure24:Betio,2.6metres
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 36
Figure25:BairikiandNanikaai,2.6m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 37
Figure26:Teaoraereke,AntenonandAntebuka,2.6m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 38
Figure27:Banraeba,AmboandTaborioST.2.3m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 39
Figure28:Tangintebu,EitaandAbarao,2.6m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 40
Figure29:BwangantebureandBikenibeu,2.6m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 41
Figure30:NawerewereandTemaiku,2.6m
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 42
Section 3: Hazard Extent Visual Tools
The accompanying CD contains Google Earth files that demonstrate potential hazard extents ofinundationduetosealevelriseduring:
• Meanhighwatersprings(MHWS):2030,2050,2070and2100(A1FIscenario);and
• 1in10yearstormevent:2030,2050,2070and2100(A1FIscenario).
ThefilesindicatetheriseinmeansealevelthatisprojectedforMHWSandstormevents.However,theprojectionsof sea level risedonot includewavesetup.Theyonly indicate staticwater levelsduring MHWS and storm events. Consequently, the extent of inundation may be higher thanpresentedinthemappingfiles.
ThelevelsofinundationassociatedwitheachofthehazardextentsintheattachedCDareshowninTable1,andwereobtainedfromtheCoastalCalculator.
Table1:WaterlevelsassociatedwithriseinmeansealevelfordifferenttimeframesundertheA1FIscenario
Year Event WaterLevel(UoHdatum)2030 MHWS 2.3m Storm 2.8m2050 MHWS 2.5m Storm 2.9m2070 MHWS 2.6m Storm 3.1m2100 MHWS 2.9m Storm 3.4m
TheprojectionsarebasedontheA1FIclimatechangescenario.ThisisthemostpessimisticclimatechangescenariopresentedintheIPCCFourthAssessmentReport.However,itisimportanttonotethattheglobal‐meansealevelrise iscurrentlytracking(from1990–2005) inaccordancewiththehighestIPCCclimatechangescenario,A1FI.
The informationpresented in this chaptermaybeapplied toclimateproof landanddevelopmentplanning,by:
• Enablingtheassessmentareasatpotentialriskfrominundation(bothintermsoffrequentevents,e.g.hightides,tolessfrequentstorm‐relatedevents)andhowthesemaychange.
• Establishingtheextentofexistingbuilding inundationriskandhowthismaychangeinthefuture.
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 43
ToviewthefilesintheattachedCD,followthesesteps:
1. SavethecontentoftheCDontoyourcomputer.
2. OpenGoogleEarth(ifyoudonothaveGoogleEarthonyourcomputer,youcandownloaditforfreefrom:http://earth.google.com/)
3. InGoogleEarth,clickon‘File’andthenselect‘Open’.
4. NavigatethetolocationwhereyousavedthecontentsoftheCDandselectthefilecalled,‘KiribatiClimateChangeInundation.kmz’1
Thisfilecontainsimagerythatindicatesthehazardextentforfourtimeframes,2030,2050,2070and2100.Toviewthehazardextent,clickinthesquareboxnexttoeachyear.YoucanviewtheextentofhazardthatisprojectedduringstormeventsandduringMeanHighWaterSprings.AnexampleoftheGoogleEarthimagerywiththehazardextentat2010(stormevents)ispresentedinFigure31.
1 This is a large file and it may take a while to load into your Google Earth program.
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 44
Figure31:Googleearth
Planning Manual: CHRDP in Kiribati
Page 45
Conclusion
TheinformationpresentedinthisManualisasummaryofthekeyoutcomesofworkconductedintwo components of the KAP II program (Component 1.3.2 and Component 1.4.0). It providesguidanceontheprojectedimpactofsealevelriseonSouthTarawa.Theprojectionsarepresentedaslevelsofsealevelrise(relativetotheUniversityofHawaiidatum)(Section1)andashazardextentmaps (Section 2). The hazard extent maps project rise in mean sea level and the extent ofpermanent inundation. The impacts of storms are not presented in these maps. Consequently,Googleearthvisualisationtoolsarealsoprovided(Section3),whichprovidefurtherinformationontheprojected impactof rise inmean sea level for bothpermanent inundation (MeanHighWaterSprings)andinundationthatwilloccurduringstormevents.
This information should be applied to support decisionmaking across the government of Kiribati(GoK)thatinfluencetheuseanddevelopmentoflandanditsresources.