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KIM LOONG RESOURCES BERHAD Analysis Date:
(KMLOONG)
All figures in thousands of Ringgit Malaysia except per share values and ratios
Financial Year: 2012 31/01/2012 Latest Quarter: 31/01/2012
Price: Stock Category: Fast Grower
Overview (Reuters):
Overview (Bloomberg):
Board: Main Board
FBMKLCI: NO
Industry: PLANTATIONS
Sub-Sector: OIL PALM/RUBBER AND OTH CROP PRODUCTION
Ownership: Corporate Owned (Local)
Investment Strategy
Portfolio Strategy: Lump Sum + Top Up Averaging Down Method: Dollar Cost/Value Averaging;Stop Loss
Portfolio Execution: Buy and Monitor;Momentum Basis for Buying & Selling:
2.40
29/06/2013
Kim Loong Resources Berhad is engaged in the cultivation of oil palm and cocoa, and investment holding. The
Company operates into two business segments: the Plantation segment and the Milling segment. The plantation
segment is engaged in the cultivation of oil palm and cocoa. The Milling segment is engaged in processing and
marketing of oil palm products. The Company’s products include crude palm oil, crude palm kernel oil, palm kernel,
palm kernel expeller, oil palm fronds, shredded empty bunch fiber and shell. Its products also include solvent
extracted mesocarp fiber, solvent extracted mesocarp oil, organic high K, munching compost, tocotrienol rich
fractions and biogass. In June 2012, the Company disposed Winsome Jaya Sdn. Bhd.
DCF Intrinsic Value
EY % OSCILLATOR
Institutional Sponsorship
Market Direction
Kim Loong Resources Berhad, an investment holding company, engages in the cultivation of oil palm and cocoa
products in Malaysia. The company is also involved in processing and marketing oil palm products; and extracting
residual oil from wet palm fiber and conversion of palm fiber. Its products include oil, palm kernel, palm kernel
expeller, solvent extracted mesocarp fiber/oil, and biomass products. In addition, the company engages in trading
fresh fruit bunches; and manufacturing health supplements and food ingredients, as well as bio-fertilizers. Further,
it is involved in biogas and power generation activities, as well as building construction activities. The company is
based in Johor Bahru, Malaysia. Kim Loong Resources Berhad is a subsidiary of Sharikat Kim Loong Sendirian
Berhad.
Due-Diligence
Measures 2003/1/31 2004/1/31 2005/1/31 2006/1/31 2007/1/31 2008/1/31 2009/1/31 2010/1/31 2011/1/31 2012/1/31 5-Y Avg. 10-Y Growth 5-Y Growth Sparkline Grade
ProfitabilityConsistently increasing Sales
Revenue (Pref. ≥ 8%)
147,318 196,131 230,705 218,679 263,063 469,875 507,084 451,533 563,408 768,332 620 17.40% 10.89%
Consistent and increasing ROE
(Pref. ≥ 15%)
5.91% 6.28% 5.90% 3.81% 7.22% 15.43% 16.72% 11.41% 13.09% 19.03% 15.82% 14.65% 1.75%
Consistent and increasing ROIC
(Pref. ≥ 15%)
5.30% 2.38% 2.69% 0.90% 5.03% 21.04% 16.07% 13.30% 15.49% 26.94% 20.34% 27.76% 4.58%
Increasing Net Profit Margin (Pref.
≥ 10%)
9.61% 8.30% 7.11% 6.52% 11.57% 20.44% 20.59% 17.60% 16.09% 21.48% 19.30% 12.37% -1.47%
Cash FlowConsistently increasing Net Cash
from Ops. (Pref. ≥ 8%)
10,382 16,464 24,174 20,215 39,418 87,072 82,920 85,739 96,991 148,994 115 28.94% 12.31%
Consistent and increasing CROIC
(Pref. ≥ 15%)
N/A 0.85% 12.12% 7.03% 13.12% 26.74% 13.12% 23.49% 22.78% 32.68% 26.32% 31.54% 9.53%
Increasing Free Cash Flow / Sales
(Pref. ≥ 5%)
N/A 1.36% 17.25% 10.74% 13.56% 16.62% 10.85% 23.71% 18.18% 19.76% 18.90% 20.35% 8.62%
Financial RisksIncreasing Debt Coverage Ratio
(Pref. ≥ 150%)
N/A 3.71% 46.72% 56.82% 120.98% 262.71% 120.36% 237.31% 288.04% 388.83% 303.97% N/A 16.57%
Increasing Quick Ratio (Pref. ≥
100%)
61.95% 53.59% 59.60% 175.46% 193.11% 311.33% 294.20% 290.26% 262.95% 361.67% 314.81% 22.40% 1.87%
Growth Quality
Column1 2003/1/31 2004/1/31 2005/1/31 2006/1/31 2007/1/31 2008/1/31 2009/1/31 2010/1/31 2011/1/31 2012/1/31
Revenue % 147318 196131 230705 218679 263063 469875 507084 451533 563408 768332
Year over Year — 33.13% 17.63% -5.21% 20.30% 78.62% 7.92% -10.95% 24.78% 36.37%
3-Year Average — — 22.43% 5.44% 6.56% 38.24% 32.81% -1.99% 5.27% 26.58%
5-Year Average — — — — 12.68% 18.79% 23.40% 21.06% 14.83% 10.89%
10-Year Average — — — — — — — — — 17.40%
EBIT % 15259 10475 12253 4180 18709 83061 89828 80814 92865 166919
Year over Year — -31.35% 16.97% -65.89% 347.58% 343.96% 8.15% -10.03% 14.91% 79.74%
3-Year Average — — -10.97% -45.93% 21.16% 149.46% 78.44% -1.37% 1.66% 36.27%
5-Year Average — — — — -5.11% 45.64% 69.74% 74.93% 31.77% 14.29%
10-Year Average — — — — — — — — — 34.50%
Net Income % 10385 13607 13250 11381 22673 59250 65375 48138 58255 96573
Year over Year — 31.03% -2.62% -14.11% 99.22% 161.32% 10.34% -26.37% 21.02% 65.78%
3-Year Average — — 12.18% -8.93% 26.86% 82.49% 52.95% -10.38% -5.77% 34.81%
5-Year Average — — — — 13.83% 34.80% 48.42% 39.43% 16.80% 8.62%
10-Year Average — — — — — — — — — 26.00%
EPS % 0.1 0.13 0.12 0.07 0.13 0.31 0.218 0.159 0.1912 0.3156
Year over Year — 30.00% -7.69% -41.67% 85.71% 138.46% -29.68% -27.06% 20.25% 65.06%
3-Year Average — — 9.12% -30.95% 4.00% 74.40% 25.85% -33.38% -6.56% 34.28%
5-Year Average — — — — -0.94% 18.18% 26.82% 21.58% 1.04% -0.95%
10-Year Average — — — — — — — — — 11.35%
Cash From Ops. % 10382 16464 24174 20215 39418 87072 82920 85739 96991 148994
Year over Year — 58.58% 46.83% -16.38% 94.99% 120.89% -4.77% 3.40% 13.12% 53.62%
3-Year Average — — 42.26% 10.26% 24.45% 73.02% 37.18% -0.77% 7.84% 27.63%
5-Year Average — — — — 28.74% 38.20% 39.26% 36.33% 17.85% 12.31%
10-Year Average — — — — — — — — — 28.94%
Free Cash Flow % N/A 2677.04 39802.12 23488.08 35662.2 78112.94 55017.75 107070.5 102443.75 151852.25
Year over Year — — 1386.80% -40.99% 51.83% 119.04% -29.57% 94.61% -4.32% 48.23%
3-Year Average — — — 108.59% -5.49% 60.08% 21.68% 15.77% 31.08% 17.47%
5-Year Average — — — — — 66.37% 18.49% 34.68% 24.26% 19.51%
10-Year Average — — — — — — — — — 37.43%
0
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120,000
140,000
160,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
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800,000
900,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Growth Quality
Revenue EBIT Net Income Cash From Ops. FCF
Stock vs Sector
OIL PALM/RUBBER AND OTH CROP PRODUCTION
Stock Board Market Cap PE Dividend Yield EPS ROE ROR ROTA
AASIA M 143.996 21.82 1.67 0.055 4.33 15.78 2.33
AMOLEK M 33.84 13.74 0 1.37 22.11 0.00 21.02
BKAWAN M 8413.854 13.75 3.37 1.453 16.42 181.83 15.73
BLDPLNT M 722.5 6.78 3.18 1.254 17.75 5.62 8.23
CEPAT M 297.747 14.17 2.67 0.068 5.22 9.61 3.63
CHINTEK M 824.094 15.63 4.43 0.577 8.55 44.18 8.37
DUTALND M 327.633 0 0 -0.008 0.00 0.00 0.00
FAREAST M 1057.597 12.57 3.34 0.597 8.31 18.61 6.68
FGV M 16416.684 0 0 0 11.15 5.70 6.07
GENP M 7102.799 21.72 1.34 0.431 9.55 26.52 6.92
GLBHD M 227.371 7.85 3.92 0.134 6.66 10.61 4.60
GOPENG M 143.463 50 19.13 0.016 1.06 19.50 1.00
HARNLEN M 144.672 10.83 1.28 0.072 5.23 7.97 3.15
HSPLANT M 2176 8.61 7.35 0.316 13.47 38.63 11.96
IJMPLNT M 2565.52 16.33 3.13 0.196 11.37 26.64 8.54
INCKEN M 445.382 0 0 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
IOICORP M 34148.61 19.1 2.92 0.28 14.17 11.44 7.76
KLK M 22887.307 18.89 3.03 1.137 17.04 11.46 10.64
KLUANG M 189.602 0.03 0.48 0.112 1750.34 94.48 1741.75
KMLOONG M 734.627 7.6 6.72 0.316 19.04 12.57 13.47
KRETAM M 774.913 19.63 0 0.108 4.41 15.68 3.65
KSENG M 1843.533 24.64 1.96 0.21 4.21 5.95 3.67
KULIM M 4697.534 5.65 27.03 0.663 21.13 91.71 9.02
KWANTAS M 638.94 18.98 0 0.108 2.49 2.60 1.45
MALPAC M 118.5 0 0 -0.057 0.00 0.00 0.00
MHC M 216.198 13.1 2.09 0.084 5.75 58.97 4.84
NPC M 240 7.12 2 0.281 11.36 7.35 7.36
NSOP M 393.131 11.79 7.5 0.475 8.83 29.44 6.77
PINEPAC M 56.177 0 0 -0.045 0.00 0.00 0.00
PLS M 431.244 36.67 0 0.036 11.38 7.96 3.57
RSAWIT M 1125.313 16.54 1.74 0.046 7.71 18.95 4.23
RVIEW M 272.37 14.89 4.76 0.283 10.52 66.18 9.91
SBAGAN M 190.55 28.9 0.79 0.109 1.80 53.80 1.75
SOP M 2446.136 10.11 0.89 0.559 19.89 20.75 11.82
SWKPLNT M 756 9.28 6.04 0.292 14.46 17.02 10.68
TDM M 1155.698 11.27 5.64 0.417 8.30 22.49 6.76
THPLANT M 1608.806 10.28 2.5 0.215 13.99 41.65 6.20
TSH M 2027.408 26.2 1.04 0.093 8.71 7.83 3.43
UMCCA M 1534.583 17.85 3.48 0.424 8.12 37.12 7.39
UNICO M 925.62 12.16 4.21 0.088 9.10 30.04 7.36
UTDPLT M 5786.125 16.91 4.5 1.65 15.91 28.92 14.43
7.42%
-4.23%
13.87% 14.54%
6.28%12.25%
16.54% 14.16%
69.84%
14.55%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
Debt to Equity - 5Y Avg EPS - 5Y Growth Net Profit Margin - 5YAvg
ROE - 5Y Avg Sales - 5Y Growth
Stock vs Sector
Company Sector
Economic Moat
Area Comments
Key Ratios -
Monopoly situation -
Brand leadership /
Operating strategy
-
Barriers to Entry High start-up costs and hard to build product differentiation
Marketship leadership -
Economic Moat I couldn't find a strong differentiation and economic moat. However, looks like
KMLOONG has a very solid and sound management team.
Future Growth Strategy/Drivers
Source Future Growth Strategy/Drivers
Annual Report The long term outlook for the palm oil industry in Malaysia remains good. The palm oil
price is expected to remain good and steady in the financial year 2013 due to uncertainty
in weather conditions in major soybean oil producing countries and the steady crude oil
price, arising from geo-political instability in producing countries and in the Middle East.
The production cost for palm oil is expected to be higher in view of the minimum wages
for Malaysia set at RM900 in Peninsular and RM800 in Sabah and Sarawak.
The Group expects the CPO production of its milling operations to remain steady in the
financial year 2013 as compared to that achieved in the financial year 2012. The
downstream projects such as palm-pressed fibre oil extraction plant, kernel oil solvent
extraction plant and biogas project are expected to generate more than RM10 million in
revenue.
Installation of our third biogas plant at our Telupid Mill is in progress. We are also
implementing the gas engine system to generate renewable electrical power from the
biogas to all our three mills to efficiently convert biogas generated from palm oil mill
effluent (“POME”) to power. This project will be able to minimize disruption of power
supply, even during our low crops period/mill shut down for maintenance, to our
downstream projects such as kernel crushing, solvent extraction, bio-fertiliser as well as
staff and labour quarters.
Analyst Reports -
Risk Management
Source Risks
Annual Report -
Analyst Reports http://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/ptres/res14798.pdf
- Going forward, the outlook for Kim Loong continues to be unexciting, asthe group has
no major new maturities coming on stream.
- Kim Loong had a poor year for FFB production as full year production fell 10% y-o-y to
280,400mt. On their milling business, the group saw flat y-o-y CPO production at
208,000mt for the year
- With no major new maturities coming on-stream going forward, we see no major
growth catalysts for the stock.
Shareholder Wealth Creation
Buy and Monitor Return (Pref. ≥ 8%) 8%
3-Y Price CAGR % 7.17%
5-Y Price CAGR % -2.12%
10-Y Price CAGR % 10.85%
Full History Price CAGR % 5.59%
Consistent and increasing Dividend Payout % (Pref. ≥ 60%) 60%
Increasing EPS
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
140.00%
160.00%
180.00%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dividend Payout %
0.1
0.130.12
0.07
0.13
0.31
0.218
0.159
0.1912
0.3156
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
EPS
Increasing DPS
Historical Weekly Price Chart
0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07
0.1
0.18
0.36
0.10.12
0.16
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
DPS
Market Timing
Discounted Cash Flow
Absolute P/E
EY % Oscillator
Buy Under 1.39
Sell Above 2.14
Good Base Bad Ugly Good Base Bad Ugly Good Base Bad Ugly
NOSH.
Fair Value 7.73 7.04 6.40 5.81 8.20 7.23 6.36 5.59 8.95 7.45 6.22 5.21
Desired M.O.S.
Buy Under 6.42 5.85 5.32 4.83 6.82 6.01 5.28 4.64 7.44 6.19 5.17 4.33
Current Price
Actual M.O.S. 69% 66% 63% 59% 71% 67% 62% 57% 73% 68% 61% 54%
2.4
3-Y 5-Y 10-Y
308.43
17%
Good PE Base PE2 Bad PE3
Expected Earnings Growth 15.00% 18 12.00% 16 9.00% 14
Dividend Yield 6.67% 7 6.67% 7 6.67% 7
Business Risk Factor
Financial Risk Factor
Earnings Visibil ity Factor
Fair P/E
Current EPS
Fair Price
Margin of Safety
Buy P/E
Buy Price
Expected DPS
Expected Dividend Yield
Sell P/E
Sell Price 8.539.5810.67
1.82%
24.76 22.78 20.80
33.80 30.35 27.03
0.17
2.17%1.98%
6.577.197.81
16.87%
0.96
0.92
29 27 24
9.13 8.40 7.67
0.94
0.32
High Low
Green Zone Price($)
11.85% Price ($) RM1.39 10%
5.21%
7.69% Price ($) RM2.14 10%
Red Zone Price($)
Low High
EY% Price ($)
Green Zone EY% 12.37% RM1.33
Red Zone EY% 7.17% RM2.29
Trading Range
The current quarter's EPS is up more than 15% from the same quarter the year before.
Apr-12 0.06 Apr-13 0.05
Growth -19.08%
0.03
0.07
0.06
0.04 0.05 0.05
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
Dec-12 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Apr-13
Quarterly EPS
Discounted Cash Flows Valuation 13
Discount Rate
Average risk
premium
Average Risk
free rate
Unadjusted
Discount %
Business Risk
Factor
Financial Risk
Factor
Discount %
Default Value 9.41%
Custom Value 12.00%
Margin of Safety
Initial RRR Dividend Yield Est. EPS
Growth
Unadjusted
MOS
Business Risk
Factor
Financial Risk
Factor
MOS
Default Value 35% 11% 17%
Custom Value 8%
Growth Estimation
Est. FCF
Growth (Base
Line)
Terminal % Decay Rate
(Yr4E-Yr7E)
Extra Decay
(Yr8E-Yr10E)
Default Value 8% 3% 15% 20%
Custom Value
Financial Figures
Shares Out. 2012 FCFE Excess Cash Intangibles
Assets
Intangibles% add
to DCF
Default Value 308.43 151.85 0%
Custom Value 50.00%
Projection of Future Free Cash Flow (Base Line - 8%)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Yearly Growth
Future Value 164.00 177.12 191.29 197.56 211.00 225.35 240.67 231.99 244.61 257.91
Discounted
Perpetuity Value
1,558.24 1,370.19 950.36
Present Value 2,171.46 2,228.70 2,296.84
3-Y 5-Y 10-Y
Shares Outstanding
7.04 7.23 7.45
5.85 6.01 6.19
66% 67% 68%
Projection of Future Free Cash Flow (Good Scenario - 12%) 12%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Yearly Growth
Future Value 170.07 190.48 213.34 223.95 246.79 271.96 299.70 284.42 307.62 332.73
Discounted
Perpetuity Value
1,737.86 1,602.63 1,226.03
Present Value 2,382.86 2,529.98 2,759.68
3-Y 5-Y 10-Y
Shares Outstanding
7.73 8.20 8.95
6.42 6.82 7.44
69% 71% 73%
Current Price
Actual M.O.S.
2.4
308.43
Fair Value
17%
Buy Under
Desired M.O.S.
7.19% 3.44%
188.05
308.43
17%
Fair Value
0.96 0.9210.63%
19%5% 0.96 0.92
Current Price
Actual M.O.S.
2.77
Buy Under
2.4
Desired M.O.S.
Projection of Future Free Cash Flow (Bad Scenario - 4%) 4%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Yearly Growth
Future Value 157.93 164.24 170.81 173.58 179.48 185.59 191.90 188.22 193.34 198.60
Discounted
Perpetuity Value
1,391.43 1,165.54 731.79
Present Value 1,974.39 1,960.66 1,917.41
3-Y 5-Y 10-Y
Shares Outstanding
6.40 6.36 6.22
5.32 5.28 5.17
63% 62% 61%
Projection of Future Free Cash Flow (Ugly Scenario - 0%) 0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Yearly Growth
Future Value 151.85 151.85 151.85 151.85 151.85 151.85 151.85 151.85 151.85 151.85
Discounted
Perpetuity Value
1,236.98 986.11 559.55
Present Value 1,791.14 1,722.94 1,606.98
3-Y 5-Y 10-Y
Shares Outstanding
5.81 5.59 5.21
4.83 4.64 4.33
59% 57% 54%Actual M.O.S.
308.43
Fair Value
17%
Buy Under
Current Price 2.4
Desired M.O.S.
17%
Buy Under
Current Price
Actual M.O.S.
2.4
Desired M.O.S.
308.43
Fair Value
Notes
Created Date Note
18/06/2013 Absolute P/E is not applicable due to inconsistent EPS growth.