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Keynote Address: India Night @ Cameron University, Lawton, OK

© Pradeep Anand

Thank you for inviting me to speak at Cameron University’s India Night.

I am elated, excited and simultaneously humbled that you invited me to speak at this

august occasion. You have a lot of choice. Thank you for choosing me.

Today is October 14, 2016, we are celebrating India night at Cameron University in

Lawton, Oklahoma.

As you will recall, last Monday, we celebrated Columbus Day. He stepped ashore on

the shores of the Americas on October 12, 1492.

So today, in a curious way, we are also celebrating Christopher Columbus’ arrival in

America.

Columbus was seeking India and discovered America.

He and the Spanish were seeking the riches of the East.


There was a very good reason behind Columbus’ journey for a new route to India.

From the beginning of the Common Era, India and China were the top two

economies of the world.

The number three spot was initially held the Romans, which they briefly ceded it to

the Turkish, which the Italians gained back in 1500, about the time Columbus made

his journey to India via the west.

For more than one thousand eight hundred years of the Common Era, India and

China produced more than half of the global GDP.

Around 1820, Britain held the number three spot.

And then something changed everything.


India dropped to 2% of the global GDP in 1947.

Why did this happen?

Several reasons.

India was now a British Possession. It could not participate in the industrial

revolution

Domestic handcrafted industries and economies were destroyed by cheap imports

from captive manufacturers in Britain.

This had tragic consequences.


India was a British Possession.

Indians paid the highest tax rate in the entire British Empire. Very little of this wealth

came back into India. Whatever came back was used to maintain administrative and

military services to rule India. Nothing was ploughed back into the Indian economy.

It was starved for capital.

Additionally, these impoverished people were starved and famines broke out, killing

more than 40 million people in the 1800s. The surviving population was malnourished

and impoverished.

In the decade between 1911 and 1920, 50% of the population died before their 7th

birthday.

In 1943, thanks to Churchill’s “scorched earth” policy, more than 2 Million died in

Bengal alone.

To summarize this tragedy, between 1801 and 1901, the life expectancy of an Indian

dropped from 25 years to 23 years.

This abject poverty and life expectancy created the crucible for the Indian Freedom

Movement.


1901 to 2009: Health & Wealth Improved

From 1947 to 2016 Overcoming the Great Divergence

Today, India is back as one of the top three economies of the world.


15% of population “below minimum level of dietary energy consumption”

Nearly half of children under five are malnourished; brains and body do not develop

properly

A government scheme to deliver cheap grain to the poor: two-thirds of the grain is

stolen or adulterated

40% illiterate; 40% failed to complete school

Shortage: 200,000 engineers, 400,000 other graduates and 150,000 vocationally trained

workers

Only 23 Indian Institutes of Technology

Roads

Power, water-treatment, transportation for employees

The state can’t fix the infrastructure because it is broke

Government debt almost 70% of GDP, more than half is interest expense

Government expenditures amount to about 15% of GDP; average 40% of GDP in

OECD countries

Badly designed and administered tax system

Corruption is debilitating and exists at all levels from ministers down to the street

Delays and shakedowns by grasping officials add 30% to the cost of road freight

Demonizes business

Tata Motors dropped a plan for a factory in West Bengal

Construction of a new road between Delhi and the Taj Mahal delayed

About 200 of India’s 640 districts are affected by a Maoism

Mining and logging firms are seriously affected


Despite these challenges India has shown growth during the last sixty years.

And this momentum can carry India forward to a terrific tomorrow!


India has a young population., who is just entering the most productive phases of

their lives.

Median age in India-27.6; by comparison the median age in the US is US-37.9 years

Also, women make up only 24 percent of the workforce, compared with 40 percent

globally.

Consequently, women now contribute only 17 percent of India’s GDP. As more

women enter the workforce, they will contribute to additional economic growth of

the country. India can increase its 2025 gross domestic product (GDP), estimated at

$4.83 trillion, by between 16% and 60% simply by enabling women to participate in

the economy on par with men.

Additionally, from a global perspective, India’s working-age population will increase

by 136 Million by 2020. In comparison, China’s will grow by 23 Million.

And with work, comes income and a better income distribution, creating the world’s

largest middle-class with better income distribution than today.

Today India has about 22 million middle-class families; by 2025 India will have 91

million middle class households.


India and Indians has always been a consumers’ market, with local products and

service. Its private consumption is closer in proportion to the US and Japan than

China.

Today, India’s consumer market ranks twelfth in the world. By 2025, it will be the

fifth largest in the world.

The driver for this growth in income is urbanization, which contributes in two ways--

70% of Indian employment will be in cities by 2030, and people in cities make more

money! In other words, more people and more income per person.


In 2030, India's top five cities—Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad and

Bengaluru—will have economies as large as Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Morocco

and Slovakia are today. Mumbai will be the largest with a GDP of about $220 Billion.

In 2014, India held the largest ever election in the world.

Here are some interesting statistics: There were 814 million eligible voters of which 23

million were 18–19 years-old, voting for the first time.

8,251 candidates contested for the 543 parliamentary seats, which required 5 million

polling personnel and civil police forces at 930,000 polling centers. There were 989

counting centers for the 540 Million votes that were cast. 66.4% of total eligible voters

voted—the highest ever in the history of Indian general elections.

The National Democratic Alliance won 336 seats. BJP, a major partner in this alliance,

won 31% of all votes and 282 (52%) of all seats.

The United Progressive Alliance won 58 seats. Only 44 (8%) seats were won by the

Congress party, with 19.3% of all votes It was the Congress party's worst defeat in a

general election.


And this was how power was transferred from the former Prime Minster, Mr.

Manmohan Singh, to the new prime Minister, Mr. Modi.

Economic Growth began in 1994 under the stewardship of the Congress Party in

1994. And former Prime Minister Mr. Manmohan Singh was the prime mover and

architect of this reform. As these graphs show, import tariffs are down and exports

are up, but India is still chasing the Chinese dragon.


India is home to many religions. Hindus constitute 80%, Muslims about 13%. India

has about 28 Million Christians and 21 Million Sikhs. Buddhists, Jains, Zoroastrians,

and others constitute the rest of the population.

The Indian constitution does recognize a separation of church and state, but it treats

all religions as equidistant. It does not neutralize religions. All religions are celebrated.

My siblings’ and my children, have blood from four religions flowing through their

veins.

Of course, for economic growth the well-being of a population we need a business

environment that promotes capital flow, entrepreneurship and innovation.


India is the top destination in Asia for foreign direct investments. In 2015, $63 Billion

of foreign investment found their way into India. It is a display of confidence of

global markets in India.

India’s economy driven by 45 Million entrepreneurs. Primary focus is domestic

consumers.

Indian “Frugal Innovation” oblige “Bottom of Pyramid”. Examples are: Safe drinking

water filter no power @ $0.65/month; a $35 laptop; Suspension bridges for 1/10 the

price; Teach Indians, and others, English cheaply. Tata Motors is selling its “people’s

car” for $3,000; GE’s Indian arm offers a medical ECG machine for $400; Bharat

Biotech sells a single dose of its hepatitis B vaccine for 20 cents; Bharti Airtel provides

one of the cheapest wireless telephone services in the world.


And we have Indianization of American products. Here’s an example of how

McDonald’s has modified its products to suit Indian tastes.

Here’s another example of an American product that was Indianized.

Finally, tomorrow looks exceptionally bright for India because of the global economic

environment that promotes growth. And, Indian businesses stretching out into global

markets.


In 1960, the GDP of the entire world was about $1.3 Trillion and world trade

accounted for about 25% of this output. Today, the Global GDP is about $66 Trillion

and world trade’s share is about 58%

That rising tide has helped a few Indian firms make some significant moves

internationally. Here are a few examples of Indian companies with international

footprints and brands. The Tata group now owns Corus, formerly known as British

Steel. And when you see a Land Rover or a Jaguar, you are seeing a product of an

Indian company.


Of course, the most visible product of India are its movies. Bollywood movies capture

the eyes of twice as many viewers are Hollywood movies do! However, they do not

match the revenues of Hollywood movies.

In summary, India’s recent yesterday was tragic. Journey to today shows promise of a

spectacular future. Of course, all journeys, like adventures, have challenges and

detours.

But with right principles and the right moral compass, we can all make progress

toward a bright future.

We live in a globalized world. We cannot and should not stop this momentum of

seeking and discovering new worlds. That quest should never cease.

We will all benefit from it, but, more important, we owe it to our coming generations.

Documents

Keynote Address: India Night @ Cameron University, …seeta.com/documents/KeynoteNotesCameronUPradeepAnand161014.pdfKeynote Address: India Night @ Cameron University, Lawton, OK ©