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Key Trends in the World & European Arena & New C hallenges for Futures Studies. Jari Kaivo-oja, Adjunct Professor, Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku Adviser, Crisis Management Initiative, President Ahtisaari´s Office . Key Trends in the World: Social. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Jari Kaivo-oja, Adjunct Professor, Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku
Adviser, Crisis Management Initiative, President Ahtisaari´s Office
KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD & EUROPEAN ARENA &
NEW CHALLENGES FOR FUTURES STUDIES
KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD: SOCIAL
• Global migration increases
• Increasing longevity (more active 60 year old)
• The old poor class larger/regional underclass
• Growing distrust on institutions and leaders
• Changing roles of sex and generations
• World becomes urban
• Continued bubbles and crashes
• Global educational powerhouses: China & India
KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD: TECHNICAL
• Genetics, robotics, informatics and nanotechnology (WRIN waves)
• The era of big creativity and innovation challenges (Rule of 10 000 hours, bohemian creative class, Quartet Helix, frugal innovation, systemic innovations, etc.)
• Technological capability increases exponentially: technological singularity near
• The Cloud becomes ubiquitous: Web 3.0 and Web 4.0
• New age of transhumanity: Human beings, robots and cyber humans
• Reality and universe secondary, multiverse will be the key field of hypercompetition
KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD: ENVIRONMENT
• The rules of time, space & materia are changing: time machines, space machines and materia machines create ubiquitous r/evolution
• Environmental catastrophes occur
• ”Some like it hot”: the climate change problem and the end of cheap energy era
• The culture of sustainability begins to emerge
KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD: ECONOMIC
• Globalisation: Networks, crowds, markets
• The emerging BRICSA economies, especially China will dominate many markets
• Digital markets, digital money, virtual words, avatars
• Productivity gains: More automation, highly educated workers
• Mega-companies & micro-entrepreneurs emerge
• Agile and smart business organisations
EUROPE 2030 VISION?
PROJECT EUROPE 2030Challenges and OpportunitiesA report to the European Council by the ReflectionGroup on the Future of the EU 2030Web: http://www.reflectiongroup.eu/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/reflection_en_web.pdf
EUROPE 2030?• Vision element 1: An agent of change in the world, a trend-
setter, and not a passive player or witness.• Vision element 2: Highly competitive and sustainable social
market economy in order to maintain social cohesion and fight against climate change.
• Vision element 3: EU needs to have a common energy policy (Renewables & nuclear energy solution).
• Vision element 4: Europeans have met its demographic challenge.
EUROPE 2030• Vision element 5: The EU has a strong Single Market against
temptations of economic nationalism and complete it to include services, the digital society and other dynamic sectors.
• Vision element 6: Improved European tax coordination.• Vision element 7: Europe will have very modern labour market
and very modern corporate governance practices because of the progress of robotisation and automatisation.
EUROPE 2030• Vision element 8: The stronger European Council and the
stronger Eurogroup with more efficient leadership role, in coordination with the Commission and the European Parliament.
KEY EUROPEAN QUESTIONS ON THE EUROPEAN FORESIGHT AGENDA
• Manage financial crisis and re-direct Europe to new economic growth
• Solve unemployment problems – especially youth unemployment problem
• Keep Europe competive, innovative and open minded (Technology, Talents, Tolerance)
• Keep Europe secure and safe: internal security, external security, social security, energy security etc.)
• Make political leadership transparent and efficient
NEW CHALLENGES FOR FUTURES STUDIES
• Diagnosis-Prognosis-Prescription Methodology (DPP Methodology)
• Adaptive and Agile Foresight processes
• Strategic and participatory foresight more widely used
• Foresight supports strong democracy
• Metaforesight activities
• Foresight and social media ... later European Cloud foresight capacity
ATTENTION !
CONGRATULATIONS FOR EMINENT SCHOLAR, PROFESSOR ERIK TERK AND ESTONIAN ACADEMIC COMMUNITY &
FUTURES RESEARCH FELLOWS!
THANK YOU!
SOME REFERENCES• Gratton, L. (2011). The Shift. The Future of Work Is Already Here. London: Collins.
• Green, E.N. (2010). Anywhere. How Global Connectivity Is Revolutionizing the Way We Do Business? New York: McGraw-Hill.
• Greenfield, A. (2006). Everyware: The Dawning Age of Ubiquitous Computing. Berkeley, CA, New Riders.
• Inkinen, S. & Kaivo-oja, J. (2009). Understanding Innovation Dynamics. Aspects of Creative Processes, Foresight Strategies, Innovation Media and Innovation Ecosystems. Finland Futures Research Centre. Turku School of Economics. eBook 9/2009. Turku.
• Kaivo-oja, J. (2006). Towards Integration of Innovation Systems and Foresight Research in Firms and Corporations. The Classical Takeuchi-Nonaka Model Reconsidered and Reformulated. FFRC-publications 2/2006. Turku, Turku School of Economics.
• Kaivo-oja, J. (2011). Futures of Innovation Systems and Systemic Innovation Systems: Towards Better Innovation Quality with New Innovation Management Tools. e-Book No 3, Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, University of Turku.
• Kaivo-oja, J. (2012). Weak Signals Analysis, Knowledge Management Theory and Systemic Socio-cultural Transitions. Futures. The Journal of Policy, Planning and Futures Studies. Vol. 44, Issue 3, pp. 206–217.
• López, T.S., Ranasinghe, D.C. Harrison, M. & McFarlane, D. (2012). Adding sense to the Internet of Things: An architecture framework for Smart Object systems. Personal and Ubiquitous Computing. Vol. 16, No 3, 389-395.
• Misuraca, G., Broster, D., Centeno, C., Punie, Y., Lampathaki, F., Charalabidis, Y., Askounis, D., Osimo,, D. Katarzyna, S. (2010). Envisioning Digital Europe 2030: Scenarios for ICT in Future Governance and Policy Modelling. Seville: JRC.
• Teece, D.J. (2006). Reflections on ‘Profiting from innovation`. Research Policy. Vol 35, No. 8, pp. 1131-1146.
• Ulwick, A. (2005). What Customers Want: Using Outcome-Driven Innovation to Create Breakthrough Products and Services. New York, McGrawHill.
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