Low-Carbon Asia Research Project

http://2050.nies.go.jp

December 2013

Putrajaya

Cyberjaya

Malaysia

Iskandar Malaysia

Bhopal

Ahmedabad

India

Indonesia

Vietnam

Bangladesh

Cambodia

Kyoto

Shiga

Japan

China

Guan Zhou

Thailand

S. Korea

Dalian

Ratchaburi

Kyonggi-do

KhonKaen

Structure of Low-Carbon Asia Research Project*

Scenarios developed by Low-Carbon Asia Research Project with Malaysia scenarios developed by the Project on

Development of Low Carbon Scenarios for Asian Region**

Universities and Institutions participating in Low-Carbon Asia Research ProjectJapan: NationalInstituteforEnvironmentalStudies,KyotoUniversity,HiroshimaUniversity,

TokyoInstituteofTechnology,KansaiUniversity,WasedaUniversity,UnitedNationsUniversity-InstituteofAdvancedStudies,TheUniversityofTokyo,RitsumeikanUniversity,NagoyaUniversity,NihonUniversity,YokohamaNationalUniversity,ToyoUniversity,NanzanUniversity,TheInstituteofEnergyEconomicsJapan,InstituteforGlobalEnvironmentalStrategies,MizuhoInformationandResearchInstitute,E-KONZAL

China: BeijingNormalUniversity,EnergyResearchInstitute,FudanUniversityIndia: IndianInstituteofManagementAhmedabad,

IntegratedGeneralSystemsAnalysisLaboratories,NationalInstituteforTechnicalTeachers’TrainingandResearchBhopal,SchoolofPlanningandArchitectureBhopal

Indonesia:BogorAgriculturalUniversity,InstitutTeknologiBandongKorea: SeoulNationalUniversityPhilippines:DeLaSalleUniversityThailand:AsianInstituteofTechnology,KasetsartUniversity,KhonKaenUniversity,

KingMongkut’sUniversityofTechnology,PrinceofSongklaUniversity,ThammasatUniversity,UbonRatchathaniUniversity

U.S.A.: UniversityofCaliforniaVietnam:UniversityofTransportandCommunication,InstituteofStrategyandPolicyon

NaturalResourcesandEnvironment

Low-Carbon Asia Research ProjectNational Institute for Environmental Studies 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan E-mail: lcs_project@nies.go.jp

* Low-CarbonAsiaResearchProjectissponsoredbytheEnvironmentResearchandTechnologyDevelopmentFund(S-6)oftheMinistryoftheEnvironment,Japan.

**ProjectonDevelopmentofLowCarbonScenariosforAsianRegionissponsoredbyScienceandTechnologyResearchPartnershipforSustainableDevelopment(SATREPS).

Key Messages

Achieving 2oC target is feasibleIfalltheactionsproposedhereareappliedappropriately,69%oftheemissionsintheReferencescenariocanbereducedinAsiain2050.Thisisinlinewithaglobalpathwaywiththe2oCtarget.

Early actions are neededWhateverpathwaysarefollowed,GHGemissionsshouldbereducedtozerointhelongruntokeeptheclimateatthecorrespondinglevel.Moretheactionsaredelayed,largerthereductionratesbecomeandhigherthestabilizationlevelwillbe.

GHGemissionsneedtobebelowzerotolowertemperature.Torealizenegativeemissionsisverytough.

Thereisadangerthatsocio-ecosystemwillnotberecoveredevenifGHGconcentrationsarereturnedtothelowerlevel.

Leapfrogging development in Asia leads to a Low Carbon SocietyTransitiontolowcarbonemissionsandlow-resourceconsumptionsocieties,whilesimultaneouslyimprovingtheeconomicstandardsoflivingisvitalforsustainabledevelopment.AsiahasmanyopportunitiestorealizeanLCSbyleapfrogging.

©sittitap/Shutterstock

©Jason Winter/Shutterstock

Printedonrecycledpaper.

Action 1 Hierarchically Connected Compact Cities: Urban Transport

・Compactcitieswithwell-connectedhierarchicalurbancenters・Aseamlessandhierarchicaltransportsystem・Lowcarbonvehicleswithefficientroad-trafficsystems

Action 2 Mainstreaming Rail and Water in Interregional Transport

・Formationofindustrialcorridorsusingalowcarbontransportsystem・Establishmentofanintermodaltransportsystemincorporatingrailandwater・ReductionofCO2emissionsfromvehiclesandaircraft

Action 3 Smart Ways to Use Materials that Realize the Full Potential of Resources

・Productionthatdramaticallyreducestheuseofresources・Useofproductsinwaysthatextendtheirlifespan・Developmentofsystemsforthereuseofresources

Action 4 Energy-Saving Spaces Utilizing Sunlight and Wind: Buildings

・Improvementoftheenergy-efficiencyperformanceofbuildings・Applicationofhigh-efficiencyequipmenttobuildingsincludingheating/coolingequipment・Visualizationofenergy-savingefforts

Action 5 Local Production and Local Consumption of Biomass

・Sustainableco-productionofbiomassenergyandfood・Lowcarbonenergysystemsusinglocalbiomassresourcesinruralareas・Improvementoflivingenvironmentswithintensivebiomassutilization

Action 6 Low Carbon Energy System Using Local Resources

・Promotionofsustainablelocalenergysystemswithrenewables・Creationofsmartenergysupplyanddemandsystems・Enhancedenergysecuritybyintegratinglowcarbonenergysourcesandfossilfuelseffectivelyintoanenergysystem

Action 7 Low Emission Agricultural Technologies

・Watermanagementinricepaddies・Highlyefficientfertilizerapplicationandresiduemanagement・Recoveryanduseofmethanegasfromlivestockmanure

Action 8 Sustainable Forestry Management

・Forestprotectionandeffectiveplantation・Sustainablepeatlandmanagement・Monitoringandmanagementofforestfires

Action 9 Technology and Finance for a Low Carbon Society

・Promoteprivate-sectorR&DforLCS・EstablishadequatefundingtosupportR&Dandtechnologydiffusion・Fosterenvironmentallyconsciousconsumerswhochooselowcarbonproducts

Action 10 Transparent and Fair Governance that Supports Low Carbon Asia

・Createanefficientadministrativemanagementframework・Establishfairandtransparentbusinesspractices・Improveliteracywithrespecttoenvironmentalpoliciesandtechnologies

Ten Actions toward Low Carbon Asia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

GHG

emiss

ions

(GtC

O 2e/

year

)

Action 1: Urban TransportAction 2: Interregional TransportAction 3: Resources & MaterialsAction 4: BuildingsAction 5: Biomass

the world (Reference scenario)Asia (LCS scenario)

Action 6: Energy SystemAction 7: Agriculture & LivestockAction 8: Forestry & Land UseOther: CH4 and N2O emissions fromother than agriculture and livestock

the world (LCS scenario)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Reductions by

GHG Emissions in

Asia

Japan China

SEA&XEA

XSA&XOC

IndiaAction3 17%

Other 11%

Action413%

Action6 37%

Action710%

Action81.6%

Action12.2%

Action23.9%

Action54.7%

Action3

Action3

Action6

Action3

Action6

Action6 Action6

Action7

Action7

Action6

1)

2) 3)

Asia

Japan China

SEA&XEA

XSA&XOC

IndiaAction3 17%

Other 11%

Action413%

Action6 37%

Action710%

Action81.6%

Action12.2%

Action23.9%

Action54.7%

Action3

Action3

Action6

Action3

Action6

Action6 Action6

Action7

Action7

Action6

1)

2) 3)

1)Other:CH4andN2Oemissionsfromotherthanagricultureandlivestock

2)SEA&XEA:SoutheastAsia,Korea(DPR),Mongolia,RepublicofKorea,andTaiwan

3)XSA&XOC:Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Bhutan,Maldives,Nepal,Pakistan,SriLanka,andSmallIslandStatesinOceania

Thetotalisnotalways100%becauseofroundingerror.

68% of the emissions in the Reference scenario can be reduced in Asia in 2050

Contribution of Ten Actions to GHG Reduction in Asia

Ten Actions Leading to Low Carbon Asia in 2050Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Asia accounted for approximately36% of global emissions in 2005. Considering the rapid economic growthexpectedinthecomingdecades,emissionsfromAsiain2050areprojectedtobedouble the2005 levels ifeffortsarenotmadetowardachievingLowCarbonSocieties(LCSs).

“RealizingLowCarbonAsia-ContributionofTenActions-”providesaguidelinetoplanandimplementthestrategiesforanLCSinAsia.Ittakesintoaccounttheinterrelationshipsbetweenindividualpoliciesandthesequenceinwhichthey should be implemented. It also discuss the necessary actions to betakenbygovernments,privatesector,citizens,andinternationalcooperationagenciesonaprioritybasis.

IfalltheActionsproposedhereareappliedappropriately,GHGemissionsinAsiacanbereducedby20gigatonsofCO2equivalent(GtCO2e),i.e.68%oftheemissionsintheReferencescenario,in2050.Theseincludeallthetenactionscovered in the report of the Low-CarbonAsia Research Project, and someotheractionsforCH4andN2Oemissionreductioninnon-agriculturesectors.

Actions 1 and 2, which focus on transportation, account for a combinedshare of 6.1% of the total reduction. The share of Action 3, which aims tolowercarbonemissionsintheusageofmaterials, is17%,whiletheshareofAction4,whichencouragesenergysavinginbuildings,is13%.TheshareofAction5,whichutilizesbiomass energy, is 4.7%and the shareofAction6,whichisrelatedtootherenergysupplysystems,is37%.ThesharesofActions7and8,dealingwithagricultureandforestry,arerespectively10%and1.6%.The remaining11%of the reduction is accounted forbymeasures that arenot listed inthis report.Actions9and10 indirectlycontributetoemissionsreductionbyfacilitatingimplementationofActions1-8.

It should be noted that the Actions presented in this report are not theonlypathwaytoachieveanLCS.TheimportantpointistousethisreporttoencouragediscussionsamongstakeholdersandtodevelopspecificactionsforeachcountryorregioninAsia.