Key Findings from Mail Survey Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates Opinion Research & Public Policy Analysis Santa Monica, CA – Oakland, CA – Madison,

Key Findings from Mail Survey

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & AssociatesOpinion Research & Public Policy Analysis

Santa Monica, CA – Oakland, CA – Madison, WI – Mexico City

Survey Conducted:December 9, 2008 - January 5, 2009

City of Cannon Beach

220-2590

Fairbank, Maslin,

Maullin & AssociatesOpinion Research &

Public Policy Analysis

2


MethodologyMethodology

Surveys mailed on December 9, 2008 to 1,164 registered voters in the City of Cannon Beach, Oregon

Mail responses were accepted from voters through January 5th, 2009.

244 surveys were returned completed, correlating to a 25% response rate.

Fairbank, Maslin,



3


Key Key FindingsFindings

Voters view the City of Cannon Beach very favorably:

75% indicated they believe things in Cannon Beach are headed in the “right direction.”

90% rated the overall quality of life in Cannon Beach as “excellent” or “good.”

79% rated the performance of City government as “excellent” or “good.”

The Ecola Creek Forest Reserve is seen as an important part of the community’s quality of life.

People most frequently visit the Reserve for hiking, walking, or wildlife viewing and photography.

Most respondents have heard something about the possibility of expanding the Reserve.

Nearly three-quarters (74%) of respondents initially indicated they would support a $3-$4 million bond measure to expand the Ecola Creek Forest Reserve.

40% indicated that they would “definitely” vote “yes.”

Voters place a high priority on Reserve projects that safeguard local water quality and supplies, preserve natural areas, and protect fish habitat.

Supporters continued to outnumber opponents by more than a two-to-one margin after learning more about the measure, with 67 percent of respondents indicating they would

support the bond measure in a final vote question.

Fairbank, Maslin,



4


Perceptions of the Community and the


Fairbank, Maslin,



5


Right direction

75%

Wrong track19%

No response6%

Voters feel optimistic about the Voters feel optimistic about the future of Cannon Beach.future of Cannon Beach.

Q2.

Would you say that things in the City of Cannon Beach are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel they are off on the wrong track?

Fairbank, Maslin,



6


Voters give high marks to the Voters give high marks to the quality of life in Cannon Beach.quality of life in Cannon Beach.

Q3.

42%

48%

7%

1%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Excellent

Good

Only fair

Poor

No response

Would you rate the overall quality of life in Cannon Beach as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Total Total Excellent/Excellent/

GoodGood90%90%

Total Total Fair/Poor Fair/Poor

8%8%

Fairbank, Maslin,



7


Voters have favorable opinions Voters have favorable opinions of City government.of City government.

Q5.

17%

62%

14%

5%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Excellent

Good

Only fair

Poor

No response

Total Total Excellent/Excellent/

GoodGood79%79%

Total Total Fair/Poor Fair/Poor

19%19%

Would you rate the performance of City government in Cannon Beach as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Fairbank, Maslin,



8


Attitudes Toward a Bond Measure

Fairbank, Maslin,



9


A great deal25%

Little56%

Nothing18%

No response1%

Most voters have heard at least a Most voters have heard at least a little about the possibility of expandinglittle about the possibility of expanding

the Ecola Creek Forest Reserve.the Ecola Creek Forest Reserve.

Q6.

How much have you recently seen, heard or read about theEcola Creek Forest Reserve and its possible expansion?

Fairbank, Maslin,



10


Measure Ballot Language TestedMeasure Ballot Language Tested

The Ecola Creek Forest Reserve Water Quality and Supply, Natural Area and Forest Preservation, and Salmon Protection Bond Measure. Shall the City of cannon beach expand the Ecola Creek Forest Reserve in order to safeguard local water quality and supply, preserve natural areas, open space, wetlands and forest lands; and protect critical salmon and trout habitats; funded by selling (Split A: $4 million/Split B: $3 million) of general obligation bonds for a term not exceeding 20 years and subject to citizen oversight and independent audits?

Fairbank, Maslin,



11


A solid majority of voters A solid majority of voters support a bond measure to expand support a bond measure to expand

the Ecola Creek Forest Reserve.the Ecola Creek Forest Reserve.

7. Below you will see the text of a proposed ballot measure as it might appear on a future City of Cannon Beach ballot. Please read this potential language, and then indicate below how you think you would vote on such a measure.

40%

34%

11%

13%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Definitely yes

Probably yes

Probably no

Definitely no

No response

Total Total YesYes74%74%

TotalTotalNoNo

24%24%

Fairbank, Maslin,



12


74%

75%

74%

77%

24%

23%

24%

16%

2% 2% 2%

7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Male Female Own Rent

Total Yes Total No No Response

% of Sample (45%) (87%)

Gender and Residence

Support is consistent across genders Support is consistent across genders and among homeowners and renters.and among homeowners and renters.


(50%) (11%)

Fairbank, Maslin,



13


86%

65% 76

%

14%

31%

22%

0% 4% 2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Democrat Republican DTS/Other


% of Sample (39%) (27%) (25%)

Party Registration

Support cuts across Support cuts across political party affiliations.political party affiliations.


Fairbank, Maslin,



14


97%

71%

72%

76%

66%

3%

29%

28%

21% 28

%

0% 0% 0% 3% 6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0-5 6-10 11-20 21-30 30+


% of Sample (13%) (24%) (19%)

Length of Residence in the City of Cannon Beach (Years)

Support is weakest among long-term Support is weakest among long-term residents, strongest among recent residents.residents, strongest among recent residents.


(12%) (30%)

Fairbank, Maslin,



15


94%

77%

72%

70%

6%

16% 26

%

30%

13% 28

%

0%

7% 2% 0% 5% 1%

71%82

%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

HighSchool or

Less

SomeCollege

CollegeGraduate

PostGraduate

Non-College

College+


% of Sample (9%) (30%) (33%)

Education

Overall support decreases with educational Overall support decreases with educational attainment, but support intensity increases.attainment, but support intensity increases.


(25%) (34%) (63%)

34% Definitely48% Probably

45% Definitely26% Probably

Fairbank, Maslin,



16


40%

34%

11%

13%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Definitely yes

Probably yes

Probably no

Definitely no

No response

Providing background informationProviding background informationabout the measure maintains voters’about the measure maintains voters’

initial level of support.initial level of support.

37%

34%

13%

14%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Initial Vote After More Information

7. Below you will see the text of a proposed ballot measure as it might appear on a future City of Cannon Beach ballot. Please read this potential language, and then indicate below how you think you would vote on such a measure. 8. Now that you have read more about it, please indicate again how you think you would vote on this potential ballot measure if it were to appear on a future City of Cannon Beach ballot.


TotalTotalNoNo

24%24%


TotalTotalNoNo

27%27%

Fairbank, Maslin,



17


Reactions to Measure Components and Timing

Fairbank, Maslin,



18


Voters place a high priority Voters place a high priority on safeguarding local water on safeguarding local water

quality and supplies.quality and supplies.

71%

69%

42%

41%

33%

16%

17%

28%

24%

33%

16%

17%

19%

21%

25%

38%

28%

5%

5%

5%

5%7%

16%

21%

8%

26%

6%

5%

11%

6%

6%

9%

17%

17%

25%

52%

4%

2%

2%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Ext. Impt. Very Impt. S.W. Impt. Not Impt. No Resp.

10. The following is a list of specific projects that could be funded by this potential measure. Recognizing that there frequently is not enough funding for all such projects, please indicate how important it is to you that each project be undertaken:

(Ranked by Extremely Important)

Safeguarding local water quality

Safeguarding local water supplies

Preserving natural areas, open space, wetlands and forest lands

Protecting critical salmon and trout habitats

Expanding the size of the Ecola Creek Forest Reserve

Controlling non-native invasive species (e.g. Himalayan blackberries, English ivy, etc.)

Expanding hiking and walking trails

Expanding mountain biking trails

Fairbank, Maslin,



19


10%

11%

43%

10%

21%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

15%

15%

37%

17%

12%

4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Cost information has little impact Cost information has little impact on support for the bond measureon support for the bond measure

$100 Per Year $75 Per Year

11a1/a2. Please indicate whether each statement makes you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or much less likely to support the measure. Split Sample

Total Total More LikelyMore Likely

30%30%

TotalTotalLess LikelyLess Likely

29%29%

Much more likely to support

Somewhat more likely to support

Makes no difference

Somewhat less likely to support

Much less likely to support

No response

Total Total More LikelyMore Likely

21%21%

TotalTotalLess LikelyLess Likely

31%31%

Fairbank, Maslin,



20


42%

36%

33%

22%

21%

30%

32%

18%

18%

20%

20%

32% 24%

11%

16%

12% 3%

4%

3%

3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Much More Lik. S.W. More Lik. Makes No Diff. S.W./Much Less Lik. No Resp.

Voters value all homeowners paying theirVoters value all homeowners paying theirfair share, seeking state funds and citizenfair share, seeking state funds and citizenoversight of bond measure expenditures.oversight of bond measure expenditures.

(Ranked by Much More Likely to Support)

11b-e. Please indicate whether each statement makes you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or much less likely to support the measure.

This measure will be paid for both by those that own vacation homes in Cannon Beach

and permanent residents of the City

The City of Cannon Beach has applied for a $1.4 million grant from the State of Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board which may

reduce the overall cost of this measure

All expenditures under the terms of this measure will be subject to citizen oversight

and independent audits

This measure will generate funds to purchase several tracts of privately held

land in the area which will be transferred to the Oregon Department of Forestry in

exchange for 800 acres of land that will expand the Ecola Creek Forest Reserve

Fairbank, Maslin,



21


45%

43%

38%

33%

31%

40% 10%

11%

8%

11%

11%

8% 4%

4%

3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Strng. Agr. S.W. Agr. S.W. Disagr. Strng. Disagr. No Resp.

The Ecola Creek Forest Reserve is seen The Ecola Creek Forest Reserve is seen as an important part of the community’s as an important part of the community’s

quality of life and water quality.quality of life and water quality.(Ranked by Strongly Agree)

12. Below you will find a list of different statements. Please indicate whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each statement.

Expanding the Ecola Creek Forest Reserve will protect water quality and help keep our community

healthy

The Ecola Creek Forest Reserve is essential to Cannon Beach’s quality of life

The primary reason I live or own a home in Cannon Beach is because of the natural beauty of the area

and places like the Ecola Creek Forest Reserve

78%78%

74%74%

78%78%

19%19%

22%22%

18%18%

Fairbank, Maslin,



22


38%

31%

29%

16%

28%

28%

34%

33% 23%

18%

21%

11%

19%

19%

19%

15% 4%

9%

1%

4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Strng. Agr. S.W. Agr. S.W. Disagr. Strng. Disagr. No Resp.

Few feel strongly that expanding the ReserveFew feel strongly that expanding the Reserve will increase recreational opportunities. will increase recreational opportunities.

12. Below you will find a list of different statements. Please indicate whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each statement.

Cannon Beach should purchase the land now to expand the Ecola Creek Forest Reserve because

it will get more expensive to do so in the future

Given the current economic climate, now is not the right time to be raising taxes and fees on

local residents

Expanding the Ecola Creek Forest Reserve and protecting wildlife habitat is important for the

local Cannon Beach economy

Expanding the Ecola Creek Forest Reserve will provide more opportunities for recreation

66%66% 30%30%

59%59% 40%40%

63%63% 33%33%

49%49% 42%42%

Fairbank, Maslin,



23


40%

34%

11%

13%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Definitely yes

Probably yes

Probably no

Definitely no

No response

Support for the bond measure declines Support for the bond measure declines as voters get more information, but as voters get more information, but a solid majority remains supportive.a solid majority remains supportive.

40%

27%

10%

18%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Initial Vote Final Vote

7. Below you will see the text of a proposed ballot measure as it might appear on a future City of Cannon Beach ballot. Please read this potential language, and then indicate below how you think you would vote on such a measure. 13. Please indicate again how you think you would vote on this potential ballot measure if it were to appear on a future City of Cannon Beach ballot.


TotalTotalNoNo

24%24%


TotalTotalNoNo

28%28%

Fairbank, Maslin,



24


People most frequently visit the ReservePeople most frequently visit the Reserve for hiking, walking, or wildlife viewing. for hiking, walking, or wildlife viewing.

13%

9%

28%

28%

9%

9% 5%2%

2%

4%

1%2%

5%

5%

5%

1 %

2%

20%

29%

20%

26%

37%

80%

79%

91%

4%

5%

4%

6%

69%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Hiking or walking

Wildlife viewing or photography

Other

Mountain biking

Fishing

Hunting

Frequently Occasionally Rarely Never No Resp.

14. How often do you visit the Ecola Creek Forest Reserve for the following purposes?

(Ranked by Frequently)

Fairbank, Maslin,



25


Conclusions and Conclusions and RecommendationsRecommendations

Respondents expressed strong support for a $3-$4 million bond measure to expand the Ecola Creek Forest Reserve:

Three-quarters (74%) initially indicated they would support the measure.

After learning more about the measure, two-thirds (67%) continued to support the measure.

Support was strong at both the $3 and $4 million levels.

Voters place an extremely high priority on projects that protect water quality and water supplies.

Voter also value projects that protect natural areas and fish habitat.

Protecting and expanding the Reserve is seen as important to keeping the community healthy and maintaining the community’s quality of life.

The City of Cannon Beach should feel comfortable moving forward with a bond measure to expand the Ecola Creek Forest Reserve, even at a higher

$4 million amount.

For more information, contact:For more information, contact:

1999 Harrison St., Suite 1290Oakland, CA 94612

Phone (510) 451-9521Fax (510) 451-0384 [email protected]@fmma.com

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & AssociatesOpinion Research & Public Policy Analysis

Santa Monica - Oakland - Madison, WI - Mexico City

Fairbank, Maslin,



27


Documents

Key Findings from Mail Survey Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates Opinion Research & Public Policy Analysis Santa Monica, CA – Oakland, CA – Madison,